We haven’t rested for so long - we have overslept our pension!
8 May 2018, the State Duma expectedly approved the post of Prime Minister D.A. Medvedev. Dmitry Anatolyevich looked like a victor.
One of the questions from deputies touched upon the problem of raising the retirement age. It turned out that this issue has been studied for a long time in the government. And this is despite the fact that during the “Straight Line” 16 on April 2015, V.V. Putin answered a similar question with a question: “Has it worked, did it go to a wooden Mac?” [1], thereby expressing its negative attitude towards raising the retirement age.
Almost all Duma factions, including United Russia, expressed their negative attitude towards raising the retirement age at a meeting with Finance Minister A. Siluanov on 21 on September 2015 of the year. Recall that the leader of this party is D.A. Medvedev. And he was approved by an overwhelming number of votes, despite such seemingly compelling reasons for rejecting the candidacy because of inconsistency and opposing the decision of such a sensitive issue to the opinion of the president.
Experts now say, they say, increased life expectancy compared with the period when retirement terms were taken in the 30-s of the XX century. It is indicated that people on average lived 40 for years. However, this is pure manipulation - low life expectancy in the 30-ies was caused primarily by hunger, high infant mortality, mass repression, when people died in camps at a young age, and others were shot at all.
And in comparison with 1992, the statistics also manipulate the year, keeping silent about mass executions in the process of redistributing property and gangster clashes among relatively young people and their relocation abroad. And now the average, I emphasize, the average life expectancy is growing not so much due to the longer life of people, but due to a significant reduction in infant mortality. A number of reasons also include the increase in the individual life expectancy of members of the wealthy "elite" who can afford treatment and rejuvenation in world centers. And not at the expense of collecting funds via SMS.
According to European experts who conducted a comparative analysis of the life expectancy of pensioners in different countries, the life expectancy of men after retirement in our country is about 6 years, and women - 11 years.
According to Rosstat, about 800 of thousands of men and 1,2 million of women - only about two million people retire annually. Using these figures, it is easy to calculate the average life expectancy for Russian pensioners (regardless of sex) using the formula of the so-called weighted average:
T survival = 6 x (800 000 / 2 000 000) + 11 x (1 200 000 / 2 000 000) = 9 years (!)
There are other estimates based solely on the figures of the Russian Rosstat, see the article “How many pensioners live”. It shows that the real terms of life expectancy after retirement are for men - 4-6 years, and for women - 17-18 years [2]. Truly, for men it turns out “worked, and in a wooden mac”, as in V.V. Putin's
In the article, the author does not aim at controversy with the government, where, as it turned out, everything has long been decided. The goal is different - to show the moral poverty and critical incompetence of the authors of the draft law on raising the retirement age.
Let's start with morality. It should be noted that here the question concerns the public interest. Let's ask ourselves a question: How does a family plan to have a baby? During my life, when I had to lead human teams, I had to deal with this issue many times. And one of the most important arguments was the help from the parents of the spouses. One Hope, which I greatly appreciated for their professionalism and commitment, even so told me: “Anatoly Viktorovich, do not worry. I will go straight from the maternity hospital to work, the mother takes over the child, she retires! ”She, of course, was joking, and no one prevented her from giving birth, but this example is indicative of families who are planning their lives and birth children And the birth of children is the problem of a demographic priority for Russia!
After all, many young families who could have children will now postpone their birth for later, which means that they can give birth to children less because of the old age of their grandmothers or their absence due to the exhaustion of the “survival period”. There will be a new demographic hole, like after the war. Experts say that the approach will be soft and gradual, they say, each year will add six months to the retirement age. But then the decline in fertility will repeat this “softness and accuracy”, and the essence of this will not change at all.
Another option is being discussed - an increase in the minimum length of service for the appointment of an insurance pension. But here and so everything is very crooked. Already thousands of people across Russia have failed to score the necessary points - after all, they did not know about the dirty tricks that the legislator, along with the Pension Fund, is preparing for them with these points. Therefore, many people either received an insurance pension in 6-12 thousand rubles, or did not receive it at all. Explain this to a woman from Feodosia who unauthorized snuck to D.A. Medvedev during his visit to the Crimea and complained about retirement in 8 thousand rubles. They say that after the complaint, she was retired ... to 500 rubles!
This is about the morality of the developers of the bill. None of them are interested in not only the demographic consequences, but the simple truth of life - the grandmothers of their grandchildren will be much less than now. And moms will rarely see, they need to earn retirement points, not raise children.
Now about the competence of the developers of the draft law on raising the retirement age. The main extortionist of this idea is a former government exile A. Kudrin. By the way, it was DA who drove him out. Medvedev. And now A. Kudrin will “take care of” his offender from the height of the Accounts Chamber. He is already rubbing his hands and even declared that “he plans to carry on his main work with the government of the Russian Federation” - a “transparent” spoon of tar in a barrel of honey to Dmitry Anatolyevich. Now they are in the same boat, and together they will be forced to carry out systematic work to reduce the burden on the budget because of the need to maintain retirees. It is possible that by reducing their number. It hurts a heavy burden.
Recently, O. Golodets “for some reason” voiced the probable amount of the pension - in 25 thousand rubles by 2025 year. Probably, it has already been calculated how much the army of pensioners will decrease. Right now, this amount would be in place, but with Kudrinsky "economic growth" would be very sad. 25 thousand is not enough for utility costs! Although Mr. Kudrin will have to temper his ambitions of the new reformer of the Russian economy - you will not be particularly unraveled in this position. But even if he succeeds in adjusting the suppression of non-earmarked budget expenditures, optimizing it, especially in public procurement, and stopping the banal embezzlement, there will be more sense from this than from the highly dubious economic strategy developed by the CSR.
Go to the main thing. Simultaneously with the project of raising the retirement age, the transition to a digital economy was announced. I must say that if earlier I believed that there are several people in the government who understand how digitalization differs from automation, now I strongly doubt it. Otherwise, it would not have occurred to anyone to raise the retirement age. Though at once, at least gradually, and this is why.
The fact is that in the coming years, literally within 5-15 years (the pension reform will not be in time), the economy will die out, according to various estimates and depending on the pace of the scientific and technological revolution, from 35 to 70 percent of existing occupations. And these will be, first of all, those professions that are perfectly mastered by the representatives of the older generation, to whom retirement will be distant. But the employer will in every way get rid of the elderly human ballast. The state, in order to reduce social tensions and motivate the electorate, will come up with all sorts of state programs to support the disastrously poor older generation, which will bring back the problems now facing the Pension Fund, but at a new level. And it is still not clear whether these problems will become more severe than the Pension Fund deficit.
It should be noted that the author has already placed on this resource articles devoted to the transition of the country to a new technological order, see [3, 4]. Consider what can happen in the field of employment in the economy of tomorrow? Here are some examples.
Take the most advanced industry, where automation is very close to digitalization. For example, large shopping centers, like Yullmart or Petrovich in St. Petersburg. Today we enter these centers, take an electronic queue ticket at the terminal and are conveniently located in an easy chair. If necessary, the manager will advise you on which button to click. But for a long time you will not stay up, you will be called to an automated workstation (AWP) of the operator, where you will issue an invoice and invoice. You go to the cashier, pay and again get in the electronic queue until you get your goods out of stock. Signed in the invoice and went / went to check out. Everything! Information about your order, payment is transmitted through the system automatically, notifying the staff of the maintenance tasks set by the system. Therefore, the barrier in front of you opens when you bring the invoice barcode to the reader.
What will change with the introduction of digitalization? The automated workplaces will disappear, and hence the workplaces of operators who draw up documents, and there are a lot of them in such centers, at least dozens. Cashiers will disappear, it will be enough to bring the bar code to the reader. A little later, as warehouse automation and total digitization of goods, storekeepers / operators of warehouse mechanisms, porters will disappear.
A little later you will not need to go to the mall, it will be enough to visit the showroom if you want to feel the goods with your hands and make sure that the expectations from the virtual showcase coincide with the original, and then direct the smartphone camera to the item code. After that, the goods will be delivered to your home. At first, couriers will continue to do this, a little later, unmanned automotive and aircraft equipment will deliver the goods. This is already being done at Amazon and similar e-commerce centers. And there are already refrigerators who order products without the owner's participation and take them from delivery quadcopters and even pay for them. And this is a booming Internet of Things.
Another example. At one time it was very fashionable, and there is, the legal profession. It is believed that this profession provides a stable and decent income. A few years later, lawyers in their current role amicably chase from the market. First, the blockchain will squeeze out most notaries. For some time, the most experienced of them will remain to solve specific problems, for example, with inheritance. Then the most advanced young lawyers will take up the training of artificial intelligence in legal skills. The powers of artificial intelligence will allow them to engage not in a narrow specialty, as is customary now, but in a whole palette of legal topics. A lawyer in his current understanding will become the developer of artificial intelligence services in the field of law.
And so gradually, but quickly, in various fields - specialists from different areas will be forced out by automatic systems, from industrial production to data processing. There will be new specialties - developers of digital systems. Almost everywhere.
And the competition between developers, read: teachers of machine intelligence, will serve as a motivating force for the development of industries. Lawyers, and not only in their current form, will gradually die out. And this will happen not in the distant future, but in the coming years.
Changes will also begin in the state system. First, there will be no need for the Rosreestr, the Federal Tax Service, the Ministry of Economic Development - there will be the ancestors of the State Planning Board based on artificial intelligence on quantum computers. Electronic document management procedures, which are now duplicating paper documents, will go into the scope of smart contracts. A rationale for making management decisions will fall on all the same artificial intelligence that can handle large arrays of unstructured data. For more information on what the power awaits in terms of digitalization, see my articles [5-7].
In one of them, it was hoped that a new team would be created to implement the project of transition of the country to a new technological order, free from the shortcomings of the current “elite”. But it did not work out ... And this can lead to the fact that we will have to use digital technologies and the means of our strategic competitors and even opponents, as it looks now, when operating systems, computer and communication equipment are completely foreign-made. So, we are addicted, our security is at risk.
In his “Public Lecture on Technological Trends and Accelerated Development Factors” [8] G. Gref gave an example from a study of foreign scientific centers, which states that if a modern person were transferred to 2030 a year, the psychological effect of such a jump would be comparable so as if the person from 1750 had moved to our time. It seems that if we are in this near future, we would not understand what people are doing at work, at home and on the street. And it will be so!
Where will the current workers of industry, commerce, a part of agriculture, etc. go to? Those that are younger, will learn to teach the machine, very young, who are now studying in elementary and middle classes, will master yet unknown professions. But with the older generation a snag comes out. They have no place in the new economy. If only some get settled in services, writing, archeology, yes stories, and then with a stretch. Although there is one sensible idea for state benefit, but this is a separate issue.
But what about the retirement age? It will be canceled, even if they accept it now. New people will come who will understand that in the conditions of the digital world it will be impossible to “cut” the budget, and the analysis of materials from endless economic forums (it seems that Russia is the world champion in the number of forums) testifies to precisely this intention of some participants of these forums.
A fraud that flourishes everywhere in the country, because it is “covered” by anyone, will not find a place for itself in the digital world. We'll have to take up the mind and really work.
All legislation in the sphere of economic relations, which is now aimed at observing the interests of officials, deputies, bankers and large corporations, but not ordinary people, should be radically revised. Therefore, the state will be forced to replace the incompetent public of the deputy corps, largely consisting of artists, athletes, lawyers and businessmen, with staff of competent developers who are able to understand and realize the potential of new technologies for effective management of all spheres of socio-economic relations and public administration.
Otherwise there will be no Russia. In addition, all foreign money, real estate and assets acquired by such “overworking” will disappear - they have already begun to be confiscated by purely democratic procedures, about which your humble servant wrote back in 2000 year.
Thus, the simultaneous implementation of two projects (raising the retirement age and digitalization of the economy) is possible only if the digitalization program is to be understood as the next use of budget funds.
Incidentally, The transition to a new technological order in developed countries is not financed by state structures outside the state administration.. For this, private money is used in the framework of both traditional futures investments and new procedures in the framework of ICO. And our government, which always lacks money for good deeds, should not spend hundreds of billions of rubles on incompetent projects. It is enough just to create conditions for the subjects of economic relations to transition to new development rails, and they will do everything themselves.
Summing up the interim result of the article, we conclude that raising the retirement age will not bring anything good to the economy or the budget. As if this age did not have to temporarily lower. Yes, create real incentives for motivating older people to engage in activities that benefit the state and society. After all, they have invaluable professional and life experience, many have merits to their homeland. Why should they be packaged immediately after use in a “wooden mac”? After all, one day, when a crisis situation may arise, and all digital technologies will be useless, only these people could organize the survival of the country.
If someone argues that the budget does not have that kind of money to ensure a decent old age (“period of survival”), then let them explain where Dmitry Anatolyevich “pulled out” 8 trillion. rubles (and he also declared that he found 10 trillion, but “optimized” the amount) for the implementation of the new May presidential decrees! Is he a magician? And where does the Central Bank take money to reorganize banks, also trillions? Remediation is the compensation of money freely withdrawn (through the correspondent account of the Central Bank) by bankers (who also left after the money across our state border) to London and other hospitable jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands.
Remark. Here they freely transfer and even transport cash (see the story of the senator caught in France with 750 million euros) money across the state border. And for ordinary citizens, there is an instruction from the Central Bank, according to which any bank can not only delay questionable, according to some bank clerk, transfer money from card to card, but also confiscate this transfer with impunity (the courts are almost always on the bankers side) and even block card. And it doesn’t matter that you live on money from this card, maybe salary or pension comes to it.
The same thing happened with the customs control when ordinary citizens crossed the state border - the order that once existed in the USSR returned. At last, the customs officers have seized upon real power over people: “How much is your suit? What kind of ring? Why do you need six dresses in a suitcase? Cognac who carry? How many liters? And dishwasher, why did you buy it abroad? Our bad? Or maybe you sell it carries? Have you bought it for a year? ”Etc., etc.
Thus, we were finally separated from the "elite", which is allowed everything, and we have to tiptoe, and any step associated with the movement of money and personal belongings can be fatal. There are a lot of messages on such forums on free forums.
Afterword
In the recent socialist past, there was a column in the Literary Gazette "If I were the director." From there, officials and party leaders, at times, drew very sensible ideas. We use this technique. So…
"If I were the director"then it would create fundamentally new technological structures for managing the economy. They would include people who had never previously worked in the system of government, and therefore free from the retrograde thinking of its current leaders. These should be talented developers of new information technology systems based on artificial intelligence, blockchain, who understand well how to connect them with quantum computing. As soon as they are ready, they would evolutionally transfer all powers, first of all, the management of monetary resources, from the old departments to these renewed structures. And the old organs would be disbanded as unnecessary.
"If I were the director", then there would be no increase in the retirement age, it would remain what it is now. But I would introduce the following innovations:
• If a person continues to work after the retirement period, then in order to stimulate the employer would pay only ½ deductions to extra-budgetary funds, i.e. 15 percent of payroll.
• A working pensioner would receive half of the accrued pension, the other half would remain at the disposal of the Pension Fund, but this money would accrue interest in the amount of the Central Bank refinancing rate. Upon dismissal from work, the pensioner could receive the amount of these savings with interest, in a lump sum or in installments, within the desired time (the balances would also accrue interest, and in case of death these funds would be transferred to the heirs).
• No retirement points! The size of the pension should depend only on the average salary for three consecutive years, any, at the pensioner's choice, and be 70 percent, subject to the existence of the existing length of service, and for each year you would add 3 percent over the required length of service, but I would deduct 3 percent for each missing year (does not apply to mothers of many children).
• An unemployed person who has reached retirement age should receive a social pension, but not in the amount of an incomprehensible subsistence minimum, and 50 percent of the average salary in the region of residence.
And once again: if someone argues that there is no such money in the budget, then let him explain where Dmitry Anatolyevich “took out” 8 trillion from. rubles for the implementation of the new May presidential decrees? And where does the Central Bank take money to reorganize banks, also trillions?
"If I were the director", it would create a fundamentally new legislative system with the involvement of unspoiled human resources, which would not adapt to external pressure or the opinion of the leaders, but would exist for which people once created a state - ensuring order and justice in society and its safe Existence.
In my deep conviction, based on the ownership of management theory, this is the only way for the country to move to a new technological order. No system is capable of changing itself from within; any of the upgraded versions will have inherent defects in its predecessor - this is a law of nature. This means that, first of all, corruption will continue, what will be the main postulate of digital systems - their transparency - will be crossed out. And this is not theory, but practice.
Someone, having read the article, will say: “Yes, the storyteller wrote this, where have you seen this, so that the state really cares about people?” I answer: if you set false goals or follow half measures, the result will correspond to such a flawed goal, and most likely , even worse. Therefore, the goal should always be theoretically, that is, scientifically based, and not far-fetched to current conditions or personality, even if that person is historical.
Sources of
1. "Worked, and in the wooden mac ..." // https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxUfBd3Ktbk
2. “Period of survival” // http://beta2.45-90.ru/articles/vsyo-o-raschyote-pensi/srok-dozhitija.html
3. Public authority // https://topwar.ru/138840-kak-spasti-rossiyu-ot-razvala-iznutri.html
4. Six roads for one Russia // https://topwar.ru/138575-po-sledam-poslevybornogo-shoka.html
5. Homeland: Digitization or death! Part One // https://topwar.ru/136344-rodina-cifrovizaciya-ili-smert.html
6. Motherland Digitization or death! Part Two // https://topwar.ru/136662-rodina-cifrovizaciya-ili-smert-chast-vtoraya.html
7. Russia had two misfortunes, but came up with a third // https://topwar.ru/138209-bylo-u-rossii-dve-bedy-dorogi-i-duraki1.html
8.G. Gref // https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYWaiKr1CBQ&feature=youtu.be&t=115
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