The chronology of the events of the tripartite (or more) “fights” of 9-10 of May is approximately the same, judging by reports from various Syrian sources, as well as official bodies of various parties. Of course, if you filter out the official propaganda of the Israelis about their “heroic”, well, just with the last strength, the fight against trying to attack from Syria, but not the attacker, Iran, and if their lies about losses and victories are also filtered ...
After the recent attacks by the Israeli Air Force on Iranian property in Syria, disguised as Americans from Eastern Syria, that behind the Euphrates, the Iranians have promised revenge. But the events under discussion began, as the analysis of the situation from Syrian sources shows, not from the Iranians, on whom the Israelis are blaming everyone, but from the Syrians themselves, more precisely, from their armed response to the latest Israeli intervention. Israeli artillery 9 May inflicted several artillery strikes on the positions of the Syrian ground forces in the area of Khan-Arnabea, while the Syrians responded with mortars. Then the Israeli tank, as reported by the Syrians, fired several shots at the Syrians, and allegedly received an ATGM attack in response. Officially, the Israelis deny the shelling, the loss, of course, too, well, so they, like the "Nebratev", "no losses" are always almost, it is clear.
Following the Israeli UAVs attempted to penetrate the airspace of the SAR in the area of Quneitra. And at the Damascus International Airport, a LORA type OTR was fired, shot down by an air defense system of the SAR (probably, “Buk”, but maybe, “Armor”). Then several more missiles were fired, including at Iranian targets. But they were also mostly intercepted. In response, the Iranians launched a certain number of Faur-5 type NURs (or Fajr-3), with a launch range of up to 43km, at Israeli military sites. Also, units of the 7 th mechanized division of the SAR Armed Forces received an order to strike back (that the Israeli attacks on Syrian targets would be answered - the Syrians had warned in advance). The strike at midnight was afflicted by the MLRS "Uragan", the expense was about 40 NUR (that is, they fired from about three cars). As a result of these and subsequent attacks, the Israelis first recognized "some" destruction and losses at military bases, and then thought better of it (no one saw it - the plane was not shot down and failed, right along the road). And they began to tell that everything was intercepted by the notorious "Iron Dome" (which is designed to combat non-speed semi-handicraft NURs and nothing more), and everything else did not reach and fell by itself, and there were no losses and damages, as always. Only children can believe in fairy tales about the underrun NUR “Hurricane”, and then, if they are not from the Donbass - they know about the RSZO, as it were, not many more adults. And the Israelis will not have any recognized losses and destructions until one of the IDF servicemen posts a photo on Facebook in spite of the strictest restrictions. As they say in one well-known advertisement, "I did not post it - it did not exist, but I posted it - it was." Syrian sources claim that the following targets were attacked and significantly hit: military reconnaissance center, border post or its local counterpart, two EW centers, communication stations, a helipad, the IDF's 810 headquarters and several other facilities in Hermon, and which something "air defense position."
The Israelis immediately attacked a number of Iranian and Syrian targets in the province of Damascus from aircraft that were already on duty in Lebanese airspace and from their territory. The X-NUMX F-28I and F-15C fighters launched 16 (obviously, 60, 56 missiles aboard) subsonic tactical CR "Dalila" (2 km range, 250 kg weight) and from the ground Approximately 250 of the Spike-NLOS Ultra-Long Range ATGM was released. Several OTP LORA and Harop low-speed disposable UAVs were also used. The blows were struck in four waves during the 30 hours, during which their Syrian 10 mehdiviziya attacked Israeli targets with 2 with Hurricane missiles. Moreover, the first three waves of the SAR defense missile successfully reflected, but from the fourth missile it went to targets much more. Probably, or the ammunition did not have time to recharge and spare units to enter into battle, or there were some other reasons. But in general, more than half were shot down from a salvo in 7 cruise and ballistic and guided missiles, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, and they should be believed. Some of the Syrians reported on the order of 20 downed products. There are videos on the Internet with shots reflecting the impact and shooting down targets, but, of course, the number of intercepted targets cannot be identified by them, and it is not necessary. There are photos with shot down "Dalilah" and "Laura".
However, it is unknown how many of the unbroken missiles still hit the target. Officially, the attacks were reflected only by the Syrian air defense, but given the close integration of the Russian and Syrian parts of the RTV and ZRV air defense in the country, coordination and management of the Syrian air defense from the command post of our group in the SAR, this statement is valid only partly in relation to the actual Russian divisions, which are not in the south of the country. In any case, it is worth noting that the Syrian air defense system, recreated and strengthened with the help of Russia and with the support of EW systems, quite successfully reflects the third massive strike of the KR and OTR, not to mention a dozen far smaller blows - the experience is, of course, unique and at stories modern wars are no longer occurring. And for our specialists, this experience is of paramount importance.
For Israel’s Syrians and Iranians losses, of course, everything is bravura - allegedly hit 50 targets, including air defense systems, radar, C-200ВМ, С-75М positions (really, this antiquity still shoots there - I can’t believe it at all) "Buk-M1-2E" and "Carapace-C". But from the evidence base nothing is presented except the video of the defeat of the Pantsir missile at the runway of the Mezze airbase, which was shot, as it was first stated, with the SPN Spike-NLOS. However, this is definitely not "Spike", much more the picture looks like a CD like "Dalila". However, the Syrians published a photo of the affected ZRPK, and it is clear that the damage to the actual fire module is minimal, it is clear that either there was no direct hit, or the attacking ammunition had a very weak warhead. They claim that it was the Harop one-time low-speed UAV, which most likely was.
Why was the "Shell" hit (we will not say "destroyed", according to this photo it is difficult to declare this, but there was a defeat)? On some information resources, a “crying” with tearing of clothes and dusting with ashes has already been lit up on this occasion, while on the other, located on “non-fraternal territory”, on the contrary, they are dancing with joy. As reported by Syrian and our sources, the ZRPK managed to shoot its own ammunition (the photo shows that TPK ZUR was scorched, that is empty), and was waiting for reloading, the calculation that was assigned to pull fresh ammunition was already close to the installation, the crew obviously helped them. The commander of the calculation of the complex, Lieutenant Colonel Aykham Habib was near the car when he noticed the approaching drone. He rushed back to the car, probably to hit him with guns (if there was ammunition there, which is not a fact at all) or, perhaps, to withdraw the complex, but he did not even die. Why ZRPK was not on a disguised and protected position, and ride on the runway of the airfield - a difficult question. They may have changed positions when firing (the Pantsir, like the latest versions of the Thors, M2U and M2, shoots well on the move with cannons and SAM), fearing a strike, or spare ammunition was stored elsewhere and they drove up there. In general, there is nothing supernatural here, the complex was not in operation and without ammunition, the high voltage from the detection radar was, judging by the video, turned off. Now, if we could break through to a fully working complex, then it would be something to be proud of. Moreover, according to rumors, this is not the first combat loss of the Pantsir, they claim that the brave Emirati anti-aircraft gunners “yawned” such a machine to Yemen’s Hussites for quite a long time, more precisely, to the Iranian drone in their hands. And then the Saudi "Patriot" suffered innocently from the Yerat OTR arrived. And in general, there is no completely indestructible military equipment, even in museums, it sometimes suffers there.
There are no confirmations on “Buk”, so one can consider information about his untimely death as “linden”, on С-75 - similarly, although it would not be a pity to him. But there is something in C-200 that the Syrians admitted that one of the missiles of the last volley had managed to break through the air defense and electronic warfare curtains to the K-1В antenna post with the target illumination radar 5H62М and published a photo of the affected radar. This does not mean absolutely nothing for the SAR defense, because such antennas have always been spare, and disabling the ROC of one starting division does not incapacitate the division as a whole, and even more so - a group of divisions. Also recognized the loss of the old radar RTV P-35, and two ammunition depots and three dead (including Lieutenant Colonel Habib in the episode with the "Shell"). In general, the fact that C-200 positions, which are stationary, constantly attacked, and practically managed without losses in the materiel all the time, indicate a good cover with their EW and air defense weapons. Also lost one launcher RSZO "Hurricane", issued by the Israelis for Iranian - but this is the Syrian PU, the Iranians have not and have not.
It is possible that Iranian property has suffered more, but there is no information. But so far it seems that the “terrible Iran”, together with the even more terrible IRGC, its special forces “Quds” and General Suleymani personally - only serve as a scarecrow for the Israeli public to try, nevertheless, to destroy something there in such a hateful Syrian air defense, which suddenly, in just one year, has become strong and weakly pierced and continues to strengthen. But how can Israeli pilots now not be able to fly there, just like at home, what do these goyim even allow themselves?
In this case, it is interesting further reaction of Iran, and Russia, too. Iran is armed not only with a large number of ballistic missiles up to medium-range, but it also has high-precision BR and KR, and has experience in their combat use (BR) in Syria, last year, in the province of Deir ez-Zor, and KR - in Yemen, through the Hussites. And various MLRS, including long-range and in high-precision version, with the GOS - also available to the soldiers of Iran Rahbar is quite enough. Whether any blows from them will follow is unknown, hardly from the territory of Iran, the Iranians do not want to beat their faces and dishes. But from the territory of the SAR this can not be excluded.
But Russia does not need such an escalation. We and Israel have relatively close ties, and Iran is something like a temporary ally in the region, and Syria is our closest ally and patrimony for our bases. Therefore, the efforts of our diplomats and the military-political leadership will be aimed at easing the confrontation. On the other hand, we do not need Iran to drag us into an unnecessary conflict with Israel, there are no benefits to us, but Iran has a lot. But we cannot afford to bomb the territory of the SAR with impunity. That is, the air defense system in the south of the country, and not only there, will be further strengthened.
Separately, I want to say about the fuss around the delivery or non-delivery of C-300PMU-2 AAMS to CAP. Even if they do not suddenly put them there, in order not to aggravate relations with Israel, this does not mean that they will not be in the south of the country. Israel really does not want such air defense systems to end up in the hands of Syrians, although they have nothing against our divisions in the country (and if they had, we don't give a damn). And if somewhere in these parts there will be another base of the VKS “de jure”, and not “de facto”, as it happens all over Syria, where our planes and helicopters and covering their units ZRV air defense turn out to be on Shairat, then On Т4, then in Aleppo and for a long time from there, then there will be an occasion to protect this base and the entire surrounding area from air attack. Our own air defense system and air defense systems and with our own calculations. Is this option possible? Yes it is. Will the Israelis attack in such an area? No, they will not do. Of course, you can declare your competence in the fight against C-300 / 400, but there are no fools to try to prove them. Just find another area for their ambitions, until it is closed. But this option is better for Israel than the appearance of air defense systems in the hands of Damascus, which they are very afraid that they will almost shoot down their planes in the border areas. Russian will not do this. In addition, at one C-300 the light did not come together as a wedge, as at the means of zonal air defense, other options are possible, and they may turn out to be more terrible.
Well, and besides, the very threat of “we will put ZRS - we will not put ZRS” gives a tool to put pressure on Israel, and not only on it. And Russia will obviously use this tool actively. So there will be many more mutually exclusive and muddy statements. It will be important to look at subsequent cases. So far, the case suggests that in a year and a half, the air defense system of the SAR was raised from military ruins to such a height that it is capable of reflecting, and with a very good percentage of downed targets, massive raids of cruise and ballistic missiles. Who else can boast of a similar result achieved not in Twitter, but in reality? But alarmists and tantrums to such an argument do not react, they have “Putin continues to pour Syria,” which is the year in a row ... And the map of the country is increasingly repainted into the correct, red, government color.
And in general, it is better to look at the reaction of the Syrians themselves - it is extremely far from decadent, to be honest. On the contrary, they rejoice at the successes of their air defense and honor the dead heroes. For them, anyone, no matter how he died in these events, is a hero a priori, that, in general, is correct - “the dead do not shame more,” as Prince Svyatoslav used to say.