Military Review

There will be no war again

23
On the eve of the World Cup in Russia, many observers expect in June a large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas. In Kiev, it is alleged that Russia will not actively help the Novorossiysk republics to repel this attack in order not to spoil the football festival. That is unlikely.




Because in the event of such an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the football holiday will still be spoiled, and the issues of war and peace are much more important than any sports world holiday: it will pass, but the war and its consequences will remain. Recall that the 08.08.08 war against Saakashvili Georgia was during the Olympics in China, which did not slow Russia down.

The question needs to be put in a different way: if the decision to attack the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the DPR / LPR is made, it can be timed to host the World Cup in Russia or can start immediately after the championship, or, in general, can be tied to completely different circumstances. For some reason, an absolutely important moment is completely forgotten: the June offensive has already been widely announced, that is, the suddenness factor has been completely lost.

Another question: the decision on a large-scale offensive in the Donbas will be taken not only by Poroshenko with Poltorak and Muzhenko: it must be agreed with Washington, and, probably, must be approved by Berlin. But the main thing: the label for the invasion from Washington.

The third question is: are the APU ready to launch a big offensive? Poroshenkovsky ministers are always ready, but at the end of 2017, the Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces resisted such an offensive, speaking of imminent great losses, and even threatened with his resignation.

Finally, are there any reasons to believe that Moscow will not intervene for the Donbass? The most "weighty" is just holding the World Cup, but everything else says the opposite. Nobody speaks about the introduction of peacekeepers in the Donbass, except Poroshenko, who needs at least something to say to his neo-Nazis, his teeth to speak.

In a recent statement from Moscow, presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said very dryly and briefly that the Minsk process was torpedoed by Kiev, blocked by the law on “reintegration of Donbass”, and reiterated that the Minsk agreements are the only way to resolve the conflict. And it's all. In the event of a softening of Moscow’s position on the Donbass, some negotiations would be conducted, like Volker-Surkov, the process of entering peacekeepers in the Donbass was discussed, but all negotiations are now suspended. The Norman troika in Aachen is assembled without Putin.

The United States shipped the Bandera regime to the notorious Javelins, allegedly with a ban on use in the Donbas. It is interesting that a comment followed from Washington: it will in no way affect anything. Chancellor Merkel expressed concern about this, and Moscow did not respond at all. It seems that Vladimir Putin took a position of harsh silence in Ukraine, as before in Syria, on the eve of the American attack with cruise missiles on the alleged chemical attack of Bashar al-Assad in Eastern Gut.

Most about the position of Moscow says, perhaps, the introduction of boats of the Black Sea fleet to the Sea of ​​Azov after the pirate capture of the Nord seiner: the Black Sea Fleet immediately took advantage of this opportunity to strengthen its position in the region.

The most important for Poroshenko is, of course, the position of Washington. Arsen Avakov, the Minister of Internal Affairs and the unofficial Minister of Nazi Formations of Azov, met recently in Washington with Wess Mitchell, Assistant Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and had a lengthy conversation with him. After that, he discovered the secret of the issues discussed: the tactics of "small steps" to liberate the Donbass and Crimea. But more importantly, his recognition in large-scale military affairs: "The APU will face enormous losses in the event of a clash with Russia in the Donbass."

New Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is President Trump’s man, so his assistant works for Trump exactly, while Senator John McCain’s people pushed the decision to supply Javelin, it was signed by Trump under pressure. While Trump did not end the war with the neocons McCain and Clinton, the war in the Donbas, fraught with aggravated relations with Russia, he does not need. Wess Mitchell apparently conveyed this to Avakov, so he made an unusual statement for him, a neo-Nazi, about the "enormous losses of the APU."

Mike Pompeo made a keynote statement recently: “We would like Russia to rejoin the democratic world and behave in a different way than today,” Donald Trump himself congratulated Vladimir Putin on his inauguration. If we abandon the mantras binding on the Western public about “Russia's behavior”, then the content part of Pompeo’s statement is Trump’s earlier intention to somehow get along with Russia. However, how much does Trump control the situation in America? - that's the question. John McCain and his work still lives, and the reincarnation of the dying McCain in Kurt Walker is obvious.

What does all this mean? There will not be a big offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas, which many people are talking about today: official Washington does not order, and Moscow has taken a position of harsh silence, behind which there can be the most unexpected "polite" consequences. This idea Wess Mitchell, apparently, reported to Avakov.

“We live in a difficult moment when a black swan can fly out of nowhere. The situation is extremely unstable, ”notes Kiev political analyst Mikhail Pogrebinsky. Serious provocations of neo-Nazis in the Donbas are possible, as in Kiev itself. But "it will not come to large-scale military actions": this is how Vladimir Putin responded to such threats in 2015. Then, massive artillery strikes were made at the concentration points of the APU armored units, and indeed, there was no offensive after that.
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  1. inkass_98
    inkass_98 10 May 2018 06: 40
    +5
    The mass of iksperds regularly, every two to three months, announces the offensive of the strongest army of the continent on LDN. With the same frequency, these forecasts do not come true for many reasons, the main of which is the lack of forces and weapons in sufficient quantities to guarantee the destruction of the republics, which are likely to receive the support of Russia.
    And you can inflate your cheeks arbitrarily long and beautifully, but no one will fit into the military plan for the Ruin, and therefore all these plans of attack are nothing more than plans. It is necessary to report to the curators about the work done and the spent funds.
    1. dSK
      dSK 10 May 2018 07: 33
      +3
      Quote: inkass_98
      It is necessary to report to the curators about the work done and the spent funds.

      Poroshenko wants to sit until the end of his presidency, imitating "determination" and preparing an alternate airport.
    2. To be or not to be
      To be or not to be 10 May 2018 09: 17
      +3
      What kind of war?
      We look at the currency response to the situation
      The euro exchange rate in Ukraine is falling (May 10, the cost of 1 euro is 31 hryvnia 12 kopecks.

      Recall that on Monday, May 7, the euro was worth 31 hryvnia 48 kopecks. This NBU and commercial even lower)

      https://24tv.ua/ru/ukraina_tag1119))
      https://kurs.com.ua/valyuta/eur/
    3. Dam
      Dam 10 May 2018 21: 15
      +1
      Yes, they would have started a long time ago. Only warehouses burn all the time at the wrong time
    4. credo
      credo 13 May 2018 00: 13
      +2
      Quote: inkass_98
      The mass of iksperds regularly, every two to three months, announces the offensive of the strongest army of the continent on LDN. With the same frequency, these forecasts do not come true for many reasons, the main of which is the lack of forces and weapons in sufficient quantities to guarantee the destruction of the republics, which are likely to receive the support of Russia.
      And you can inflate your cheeks as long as you like and beautifully, but no one will fit into the military plan for the Ruin, and therefore all these plans of attack are nothing more than plans ..

      By the way, in August 2008 no one was planning to fit in with Georgia from its Western sponsors, but there was hope that it would capture the rebellious regions, and if Russia tried to protect the local population from these regions from genocide, Russia would immediately be declared an aggressor and an acupant. What really happened.
      So that nothing prevents repeating the same scenario again, but now in Ukraine. Neither the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers, nor the National Battles' cutthroats, nor the local population on both sides of the front are sorry for the Western curators of Ukraine and for the local politicians themselves. It is clear that Russia will not leave this provocation unanswered, but it will once again raise the degree of the world tantrum about the insidious Russians and poor Ukraine to unprecedented heights, bend the EU countries, and at the same time everyone else who is breathlessly catching every word from the USA, on another spending on the purchase of American weapons, and "strongly" convince doubting NATO members that only this organization, in its current form and with the sensitive leadership of the United States, can save all such a weak and defenseless world from an unpredictable and terrible Russia. To some it may seem blasphemous, but by American standards, the effective participation of Russia on the side of LDNR will be the best advertisement of all that is said above, which means that this can bring the USA another multi-billion dollar profit. So why not use it, especially during the football championship.
  2. zulusuluz
    zulusuluz 10 May 2018 06: 40
    +5
    God willing. Ordinary people need war last of all.
  3. eugraphus
    eugraphus 10 May 2018 06: 58
    +4
    In Ukraine there is a sluggish civil war. And this tyagomotin can last more than one year. Generations will change and what once was not possible will be mundane. If the process was left to chance, then it flows in the direction where it was sent, but, alas, not Russia.
  4. geniy
    geniy 10 May 2018 06: 59
    +3
    Yeah! Ukraine and the entire Western world have driven themselves into a dead end. Because as soon as the meeting of the troika takes place in a stripped-down Norman format: that is, Poroshenko, Merkel and Macron, that is, after that Ukraine will start a war, or just large-scale military operations, it will become clear to the whole world that it was Merkel and Macron that gave Poroshenko permission or simply ordered to start a war again. This means that the whole world will consider Merkel and Macron aggressors - and they need it? It’s clear that Merkel and Macron will show Poroshenko a fist under his nose so that he sits upright and until he rocked the boat.
  5. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 10 May 2018 07: 11
    +6
    In short, we play football. There will be no offensive! And this is good. The automobile part of the Crimean bridge is about to work, and the power plants on the peninsula, too. "The Power of Siberia", "Nord Stream-2", "Turkish Stream" - all this unfolds in OUR direction. We are working ...
    1. Evdokim
      Evdokim 10 May 2018 11: 02
      +2
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      everything unfolds in OUR direction. We are working ...

      That's right, there’s nothing to be distracted by Kiev baboons, all the same, they are clinically brainless and pathologically greedy. The caravan goes on. hi
  6. geniy
    geniy 10 May 2018 07: 15
    +3
    Quote: eugraphus
    In Ukraine there is a sluggish civil war. And this tyagomotin can last more than one year. Generations will change and what once was not possible will be mundane.

    You do not understand that the long term of the generational change order cannot be discussed! Because Ukraine faces default in the coming months! This year already, in principle, it should start paying off past debts, but there is no money in their treasury at all!
    And it is not clear only whether this will happen?
    That is, lenders - mainly the IMF should demand that Ukraine begin paying the debt this year, but they may also postpone it for some time - as was the case with Greece. After all, they were already afraid that Greece would collapse, and did not rush things. But everything is exactly the same with Ukraine - if the IMF had demanded immediate payment of the debt, then the default in Ukraine would have occurred right now.
    And by the way - no one understands that the Russian government plays a negative role in supporting the Poroshenko regime. You do not know how? And it’s very simple: long ago, Ukraine was supposed to pay Russia a sovereign debt of 3 billion euros. But the Ukrainian government, in spite of the courts, is delaying everything. And they will pull the rubber for a very long time. But this debt was secured by some amazingly strong guarantees of very influential persons of Western countries. And Russia, in principle, demand the payment of Ukrainian debt not from Ukraine at all, but from these influential persons or banks. And they will certainly return these 3 billion to Russia. But do you really think that these Western banks will voluntarily give up their money? No, of course - they will immediately begin to torture the Poroshenko government with brutal torture in order to return their money from Ukraine. And then in Ukraine, a default would have occurred immediately. And then the complete collapse of Ukraine will begin, and no shelling, no military operations could have happened at all.
    So this Putin government supports the life of the Poroshenko regime. If ours demanded an immediate return of Russian debt, the Poroshenko regime would collapse in the same week.
    But
  7. Egoza
    Egoza 10 May 2018 07: 39
    +4
    What kind of war? what kind of money? Here, you see, only Ukrainian soldiers liberated Europe and fascism! And in general, Petya signed the act of surrender of Germany !!! belay Try to blather on him now! tongue wassat
    Yes Yes! They showed us on TV! wassat

    "The action" First minute of the world ", dedicated to the moment when Germany signed the surrender with the participation of President Petro Poroshenko," the inscription proudly sounds.
    Source: http://rusvesna.su/news/1525881029
    1. sabakina
      sabakina 10 May 2018 12: 44
      +2
      Helena, did Germany even appear at war? ... laughing
    2. Antares
      Antares 10 May 2018 23: 03
      0
      Quote: Egoza
      "The action" First minute of the world ", dedicated to the moment when Germany signed the surrender with the participation of President Petro Poroshenko," the inscription proudly sounds.

      what’s wrong there? Missing a comma or constructing a sentence? Or your own speculation?
      The all-Ukrainian action "First minute of peace" is timed to the date of signing the act of surrender of Nazi Germany. As part of the event, a minute of silence is held in memory of those who died in World War II.
      That is, the action of the first minute after 23 hours (The surrender of Nazi Germany entered into force on May 8 at 23:01 Central European time) on May 1945, 8 will be with the participation of the President of Ukraine. If someone sees that Poroshenko invented a time machine and trolls it, well, Poroshenko’s personal fans are enough for him and in spring. More than in Ukraine itself.
  8. TermNachTer
    TermNachTer 10 May 2018 08: 20
    +6
    I don’t know how it was in the Washington Reich Chancellery or in Berlin, I was not there and was not present during the conversation. I know one thing, what remains of the dill army is not capable of any serious offensive. For so many reasons.
  9. Altona
    Altona 10 May 2018 09: 18
    +2
    Quote: Egoza
    Petya signed the act of surrender of Germany !!!

    ------------------------------
    Well, that's right. Only a small technical inaccuracy- Act of surrender of Ukraine to Germany.
  10. Zebus
    Zebus 10 May 2018 09: 22
    +1
    Wait and see! winked
  11. sabakina
    sabakina 10 May 2018 12: 42
    +2
    Another question: the decision on a large-scale offensive in the Donbas will be taken not only by Poroshenko with Poltorak and Muzhenko: it must be agreed with Washington, and, probably, must be approved by Berlin. But the main thing: the label for the invasion from Washington.
    I hope that Stirlitz has not disappeared.
    and Moscow took a position of harsh silence, which may be followed by the most unexpected “polite” consequences.



    The whole world is a theater, and people are actors in it.
    1. beeper
      beeper 10 May 2018 18: 14
      +2
      Thank you, comrade Vyacheslav! good
      It is these frames to me (and not only to me smile ) Most of all I remembered from the wonderful Soviet film with the incomparable play of Vii Artmane and Ivar Kalniньš!
      And how is this, a timely recalled, "immortal" remark about a "pause (IMHO-frankly manipulative yes ) "helped me not only in amateur performances, but also in various life situations ... winked
      Thank you !!! You simply can’t even imagine (I myself didn’t imagine your show before this wink ) how much have I been treated good ... now I’m sure to review this movie!
      Sincerely hi
  12. Antares
    Antares 10 May 2018 23: 06
    0
    not a very successful analyst already predicts that there will be no war .. this is interesting. So many times I wrote about the offensive, but here again it will not be. Diversity.
    Well, as usual in the text, the Nazis, Bandera and the other charm of "masons"
    The text again has many myths and cliches. This is an opinion, not an analysis.
    1. Hottabych
      Hottabych 13 May 2018 16: 25
      0
      Quote: Antares
      and as usual in the text, the Nazis, Bandera and the other delights of "masons"
      The text again has many myths and cliches. This is an opinion, not an analysis.

      This is exactly the analysis from which a difficult diagnosis follows. Diagnosis to the head (to the government of Ukraine), because of which the whole body suffers ...
  13. Moscow border guard squad
    Moscow border guard squad 12 May 2018 19: 30
    +1
    To intercede for the DNI and LC, the Russian Federation-will not.
    Ukraine will regain control of the border, UN troops will step on the demarcation.
  14. Efrem mutny
    Efrem mutny 13 May 2018 18: 47
    0
    The gut is thin at the roller and his henchmen, and there is no strength ...