They say that now the Americans will build naval bases in Kazakhstan, American warships will appear on the Caspian Sea. Some people wrote that Kazakhstan supposedly "betrayed" Russia and in general "changed the strategic balance of forces". But is it?
By themselves, the "remarks" on the theme "Kazakhstan will soon allow the US Navy to its bases" or "The US bases in Aktau" have quite a long history. And in 2000-s such rumors were periodically exaggerated both in Kazakhstan and Russia, and as a rule, nothing stood behind them and nothing real happened. In 2013 Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev at the Istanbul Process Conference on Afghanistan declared his readiness "to expand the transit potential for NATO cargo at the expense of the Caspian Kazakh port of Aktau." But nothing more followed, despite the fact that at that time the Americans already collapsed their logistics along the "northern supply route" because they were forced to close the Manas Transit Center in Kyrgyzstan (until 2009 was a military base) . But about the "US military base in Aktau," even then, the press had trampled down. At the same time, Russia at that time itself provided transit for the United States and NATO to Afghanistan, and the question of a transit terminal was even discussed at one time. Actually, the profit on this transit was rather big enough for all Central Asian states tied to it.
Most recently, last year, the story of the "base in Aktau" again surfaced in the press, when a five-year plan on military cooperation for the period 2018-2022 was signed between the USA and Kazakhstan. - not the first such plan between these countries (and not only these, and between the United States and the Russian Federation, such documents were concluded, this is a formal procedure). And again, it was about the “military base”, without supporting any evidence, referring to a document in which there was nothing of the kind. There were all sorts of plans for the exchange of military delegations, military exercises (ordinary micro-events for a tick at the level of platoons or companies) and US assistance in training qualified personnel for the Armed Forces of Kazakhstan. There was something about the transfer of small batches of weapons to the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan from the available stock of the US Armed Forces - also nothing new, the Kazakh Armed Forces and Iroquois old UH-1 helicopters, and Humvi cars and so on. Any Turkish and South Korean outdated floating junk was received as a gift, which was written off very quickly or was simply listed on the balance sheet (and the budget money was used for its maintenance). Usually all these gifts are described by the phrase "here you are, God, we are not fit."
And now the topic with a transit corridor has resurfaced. And this is understandable, because the transit for the United States has been stopped through the Russian Federation, and although they have little troops left in Afghanistan, they still need to carry cargo. And the southern, Pakistani route is also not sugar, there both burn and rob these loads to all and sundry, and various local tribes are engaged in racket along the way. Officially, their “services” are paid for as “assistance in protecting routes”, but those who remember 90 in Russia remember similar “helpers”, only in those parts they don’t own anything else and they don’t own “fenies”. Moreover, Pakistan itself has repeatedly blocked transit during the deterioration of relations with the United States. That is why the Americans appreciated the northern route, it was more predictable, but these times have passed. Yes, we managed to come to an agreement with Kazakhstan, but the resulting “new northern route”, to put it mildly, looks simply “brilliantly” from the point of view of logistics. By sea through the Black Sea straits to Georgia, from there to Azerbaijan, then by sea through the Caspian Sea to Aktau or Kuryk, and then through Kazakhstan and the other republics of Central Asia to Afghanistan. But there are no other options. So, there is not a word about the base in this ratified document! Only a transit terminal, similar to what could have appeared in Russia (and, by the way, they also saw a “military base” in it). This is a completely different level in everything, including extraterritoriality and protection.
But no, supporters of conspiracy theories and simply on duty alarmists do not calm down, but what if the words about the cargo terminal are only a cover, and instead there will appear US Navy ships and a military base? There will be no ships or base. Neither the USA nor Russia have invented teleportation, especially such items as warships. You can either get to the Caspian Sea or through the inland waterways of Russia (that is, for the Americans this option is closed), or somehow through Iran, the ships can’t get there anymore. Is it possible, in theory, to disassemble some or several boats and send them in parts, taking them by air? Can. But it will be all there motor rubber and rubber-metal boats, which you can not carry, you can buy on the spot. The US Navy does not have ships like ours, say, missile boats or something like that, so that we could disassemble and ship them in this way, not to mention the fact that the transfer will be "golden." More precisely, there are still 13 patrol boats, such as the Cyclone, 338 with a displacement and with weapons from the 25 mm cannon and several machine guns. But the US needs them in the Persian Gulf in order to have at least something similar to their Iranian counterparts. They are also needed in Florida, where they are engaged in the fight against drug trafficking and illegal immigration. By the way, how is it there, “Trump's wall”, already, I suppose, half of the border was fenced off and not higher than Great China’s in height? What, how is "like Yatsenyuk"? Can not be, can such a person like Trump - lie?
There are similar boats in the US Coast Guard, but they are also very necessary there, and new ones, such as the Sentinel, and old ones, such as the Island, which are slowly, in the process of being replaced by successors, are handed out to different illiterate savages, like Georgians or the Ukrainian junta. .
And most importantly, even if you somehow disassemble several boats and ferry, the question remains - why? The real threat to Russia and its Red Banner Caspian Flotillas (CCFL) and the forces of the Maritime Border Service in the Caspian Sea, they will not be able to represent themselves, nor even if they are combined with the Azerbaijani and Kazakhstani Navy. Even if we forget about the airborne forces prevailing in the region, about coastal anti-ship missile systems, about the water surface control system, including the “Sunflower” surface-wave radar, and just look at the combat strength of our naval forces in the region, it becomes clear and to the child.
In KKFL 2 of the Dagestan and Tatarstan missiles is in service, one of them is armed with the Caliber-NK complex with cruise missiles (KR) 3М14 Caliber and anti-ship 3М54 Turquoise 3M55 "Onyx", but in practice, it seems, they are not there yet), the second - PKR "Uran-U". There are also 3 small rocket ships of the "Buyan-M" type with the same Caliber-NK complex, 3 small artillery ships of the "Buyan" type, 1 rocket boat (with outdated Termite anti-ship missiles), used to launch them as targets on exercises), 1 small artillery ship of the type "Lightning", 4 armored boats of the type "Bumblebee", a dozen two other combat units - artillery boats, landing craft, base and raid minesweepers.
The FSB command in the Caspian still has 30 units - 12 border patrol ships of various classes, from 300 to 740 tons, 12 border patrol boats, 4 border support ships, 2 border patrol vessels. Moreover, most of these units were built already in this century, and more recently, others - the buildings of the 90-ies, the Soviet-built almost nothing left, that is, fairly new ships and boats. The border guards are not armed with a pair of machine guns and a cannon, as is customary in Americans on boats, but mainly 76mm by automatic artillery installation, 30mm six-barreled rapid-fire "meat grinders" and other things. This force in the Caspian has no rivals, and Iran is also not an opponent here.
It is also impossible for Iran to create problems with several boats. Just attend? There's no point. In addition, both Kazakhstan and all other countries of the basin generally agree with the provision on preventing any “non-local” in the region. In general, the Americans themselves will not get into this business, the game is not worth the candle. And transit is important to them.
But what really could be feared was intelligence activities. Or sabotage. Say, to bring different underwater means of the “dry” or “wet” type on the sly, underwater tugs and various equipment for reconnaissance divers and divers themselves from the US Navy reconnaissance and sabotage units - and you can spy and arrange sabotage. But sabotage is absolutely the last thing, our relations with the United States have not yet reached such a level, and we also have to arrange them in the Caspian Sea to whom and with what. But why even for this transit terminal? It is possible to agree on such a thing, behind the scenes. And not necessarily with Kazakhstan, there are more conspicuous countries in the region. But we still need to take this factor into account.
We can assume even this moment. As you know, from Kapustin Yar to Sary-Shagan on Balkhash there passes a “southern short test track”, on which our strategic missile forces are experiencing advanced combat equipment in those modes that our “probable partners No. XXUMX” do not need to see. A lot of interesting things are being tested there on the subject of missile defense. And precisely because the American technical means do not view this route in any way. In addition, it is clear that satellites flying past, but the flight schedule is hanging everywhere and everywhere in the respective institutions and units, and no one will experience anything at such moments. In theory, it is possible, having filled several containers, ostensibly for Afghanistan, with various intelligence equipment, something useful for them there and find out while the containers are at the terminal in Aktau or Kuryk. Or while from there they go to Afghanistan. But again, if you connect the logic, "container transit intelligence" has existed for a very long time, and it does not need any terminal. Yes, and you will not learn anything about the subject of the Strategic Missile Forces, the Strategic Nuclear Forces or ABM with the help of such containers, especially valuable. Here we need a serious center with specific and bulky equipment that will "light up" very quickly. And Kazakhstan will have problems that he does not need. But one way or another, the corresponding variant of our authorities, as a fairly real one, needs to be taken into account. Yes, they certainly take it into account.
And most importantly - why does Kazakhstan need it? The republic has extensive cooperation with Russia, including military ones - the exercises are being held, a single air defense system and so on. Also, there are large deliveries through the military-technical cooperation. For example, deliveries of Su-30SME fighters (8 delivered, 16 ordered), Mi-171Sh and Mi-17В5 helicopters (delivered more than 20 machines), Il-76MD-90А planes ordered, there are extensive plans for the purchase of ZRS-400MD-XNUMXА, there are extensive plans for the purchase of ZRS-XNUMXМД-XNUMXА, there are extensive plans for the purchase of ZRS-XNUMXМД-XNUMXА; "Pantsir-S", on the modernization of armored vehicles, etc. etc.
Yes, the Kazakh leadership periodically tries to preserve the "multi-vector" policy, acting on the principle of Truffaldino from Bergamo, serving two masters at the same time, but was not noticed in the openly anti-Russian policy. Even plans to replace the Cyrillic alphabet are the usual stupidity of the “great Elbasy”, rather than the anti-Russian step, well, the old Nazarbayev, that you will take it from him. To consider yourself very cunning and to love money is a sin, but not so great. The main thing is that instead of being rewarded for serving the two gentlemen Truffaldino, the Kazakh will not fly in from one of them. Or he did not deceive himself.
The Russian leadership has ignored the transit history for the time being, underscored it means that probably it sees no threat and everything is agreed. Or the reaction is not only until ...
In general, wherever the Americans have agreed to build for themselves or for another country, at least a booth for a rural toilet of the "toilet" type, many immediately see a military base of the level, probably Fort Hood, Rammstein or Grafenvera. Or Norfolk, if the toilet is being built in the port. So it was quite recently, when the US military builders from the 1-th mobile building battalion of the US Navy in the Ukrainian Ochakiv on the territory of the naval base of the Navy were building the operation of a certain naval center of Ukraine. In reality, on the shore, slightly trimming the soil with a small Caterpillar excavator, from a dozen and a half guys in construction helmets under the command of a lieutenant were slowly collected from a wooden bar and laminated plywood under small containers lugged with a loader (in the photos). That's the whole "center", and not American, but for the Ukrainians. And other facilities turned out to be just as “cyclopean in scale”, but the noise caused considerable. The same story seems to come out with Kazakhstan: no one really does anything yet, but the noise is already full!