Military Review

Pakistani gambit of Putin

56
The development of the military-strategic situation in the Hindustan subcontinent favors a significant strengthening of Russia's geopolitical positions.




Reports that Pakistan has finalized a contract for the purchase of a large party in Russia, namely 54 modern Su-35 fighters, and are also ready to consider buying large quantities of other types of Russian military equipment, is currently quoted at the level of unverified rumors.

However, it is impossible not to draw attention to the literal coincidence in time of this “rumor” with news on the refusal of the neighboring country of Pakistan, India, from the joint development with Russia of the Indian fighter of the fifth generation. And the logic of this coincidence is so obvious that, even if the Pakistani contract were just a rumor, it should be filled with real content as quickly as possible. And in the mutual interests of both parties.

Pakistan for many decades was the “third superfluous” in Russian (and even in Soviet) politics in the Indian subcontinent. Because Moscow has always favored Delhi and in every way took into account the whims of the Hindus in terms of its restraint in relations with Islamabad.

By the way, one of the consequences of such a policy of the USSR was the Afghan war, in which Pakistan, which was not bound by any obligations to the Russians, became the main US military base for overthrowing the pro-Soviet authorities of the DRA.

Pakistan itself, meanwhile, has found another regional support for itself - China, with which it is at the very least a couple and opposes India.

And today, the geopolitical configuration of South Asia, it seems, may again change beyond recognition. The reason for this is China’s powerful move towards world leadership and the convulsive US attempts to stop it. For what Washington, who has lost its former power, is trying to mobilize all the reserves at hand. Including India.

The Americans are clearly betting on the irresistible antagonism of the two and a half billion Asian powers, and intend to use India as a powerful additional factor of pressure on the PRC. Calculation on Pakistan in this sense is absolutely unreal, since this country has a complete coincidence of long-term geopolitical interests with Beijing. China and Pakistan regard India as their main regional strategic adversary and will never clash with each other for the sake of third party interests.

Therefore, there is no alternative for Washington - only a bet on India. This has become the soil for the US military-technical cooperation with the Indians that has received a powerful impetus in recent years. Those, in turn, also treated American “courtship” with great interests. Since they are well aware that such cooperation can be very promising and long-term precisely because of the coincidence of the two countries' strategic approaches to the problem of China.

That cannot be said about Russia, which is completely unprepared and will never be ready to take the path of the anti-Chinese agreement with New Delhi as far as Washington can and can afford.

It is for this reason that Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation has recently begun to sink. Hindus are increasingly turning the gates to Russian proposals in this area, without going into an explanation of the reasons, or getting rid of, to put it mildly, not completely justified claims. Of course, a large country, firmly tied to military cooperation, first with the USSR and then with the Russian Federation, cannot at one moment turn to 180 degrees. However, the negative trend is evident, and Moscow cannot ignore such a development of events.

Of course, the loss of a very capacious Indian arms market is not at all what is in the interests of the Russian Federation. However, "consent is a product with complete non-resistance of the parties." And if one of the partners cools off to such cooperation, then this, one way or another, will have to be considered.

On the one hand, Russia will undoubtedly do everything possible to retain as much of the Indian military pie as possible. What, in particular, will be largely contributed by the policy of the USA itself. They no longer enjoy the reputation of a reliable military-political partner in the world. What the Indians are undoubtedly well aware of. Of course, they well understand their purely official role in the American anti-Chinese game. But, nevertheless, they will certainly strive to use the opportunities opened up due to this game to their advantage.

However, the American military industrialists care about Indian profit to a very small extent. They are much closer to their own. And for New Delhi it will become a big problem. American weapon any variety and destination is always the most expensive in the world. And India, although a large country, is far from being the richest. Hindus will be very, very difficult to switch to the US military "exclusives". They still have the ancient Soviet-made MiG-21 that makes up almost half of the air force fleet. They would be happy to transfer to the new overseas "stealth", but only that they clearly can not afford.

By the way, it is for this reason (financial weakness) that the recently announced withdrawal of the fifth generation Indian fighter from the joint program with the Russian Federation should not be regarded as a kind of trough in front of America. According to experts, they simply did not have enough money even for a relatively modest version of Russia. They will definitely not go to the financially ruinous replacement of the Su-57 on the F-35. And, by the way, the same India, having moderated its appetites for some of the planes of the future, at the same time, it is reported, became very interested again in Russian Su-35!

All this to the fact that the possibility of the military industry of the Russian Federation to continue to be present in the Indian arms market does not at all tend to zero. And they can even have a very bright future.

Nevertheless, the Pakistan version is very interesting for Moscow. First of all, this is quite a relevant preventive reminder to the Hindus that the world has never come together with a wedge. Secondly, how much can Russia stand in South Asia on one leg, although it may well find a place there for the other? And this is not to mention the fact that Moscow’s unconditional strategic choice in favor of China fits in well with relations with Pakistan’s most important Chinese ally. That, in turn, can give impetus to further geopolitical changes favorable for the Russian Federation in South and Central Asia. And, in particular, in a very problematic Afghan area, which is sensitive to the security of Russia's southern “underbelly”.

Needless to say, in big politics, everything is far from clear. And the same Pakistan has historically close ties not only with China, but also with the United States and in general with the Anglo-Saxons. However, these ties have already been degrading for many years, and in the event of a further rapprochement between Washington and India, on the basis of the drawing of anti-Chinese combinations, they may even fade away.

So the geopolitical situation in this key and most densely populated region of the planet for the Russian Federation as a whole is very promising. And a hypothetical contract for the delivery of the largest batch of Russian military equipment to Pakistan could be a long overdue step in a very right direction.
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  1. Andrey Yuryevich
    Andrey Yuryevich April 27 2018 06: 13
    +1
    According to experts, they simply did not have enough money even for a relatively modest option with Russia. They will definitely not go to financially ruinous replacement of Su-57 with F-35
    what about rafal?
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee April 27 2018 06: 19
      +5
      This is the market. Who will throw off the price more!
      1. NEXUS
        NEXUS April 27 2018 09: 27
        +2
        Quote: Uncle Lee
        This is the market. Who will throw off the price more!

        Pakistan is a new market, which, due to the fact that we are friends with India, have not been noticed for a long time. The West is pushing us out of the familiar markets. An example is India and its refusal to develop the SU-57 for the Indians.
        New contracts should appear on the basis of what we already supply: components, service, etc. In other words, you want to have spare parts, repairs, maintenance of existing equipment, it’s not a question ... only under the guarantees of new contracts, otherwise repair, service and td
        1. Alber
          Alber April 27 2018 17: 21
          +1
          Quote: NEXUS
          Quote: Uncle Lee
          This is the market. Who will throw off the price more!

          Pakistan is a new market, which, due to the fact that we are friends with India, have not been noticed for a long time. The West is pushing us out of the familiar markets. An example is India and its refusal to develop the SU-57 for the Indians.
          New contracts should appear on the basis of what we already supply: components, service, etc. In other words, you want to have spare parts, repairs, maintenance of existing equipment, it’s not a question ... only under the guarantees of new contracts, otherwise repair, service and td

          As much technology as possible needs to be shoved to Pakistan once such a "booze" has been launched until this "lafa" is intercepted
          1. Vladimir 5
            Vladimir 5 April 27 2018 20: 47
            -1
            Government sales of weapons are always associated with politics. Pakistan comes up because the Americans are driving us out of India. That’s the question of why, when they want, the Americans easily squeeze out Russian arms suppliers FROM ANYWHERE ... There is a question from the Foreign Ministry to the entire military-industrial complex ... The answer is clear, we sell cheap weapons to the poor, of course there are exceptions, but only exceptions ... Russia until 1913 years developed at the fastest pace and by 1925 should have caught up with the United States ... This is possible from the list of reasons why revolutions and coups have been made in Russia with foreign money and help, which echoes today's colorful revolutions ..
      2. antivirus
        antivirus April 27 2018 09: 43
        +2
        THIS IS NOT A BAZAAR.
        the geopolitics market is stretched in time - FOR Eternity, NOTHING DAMPS ANYTHING.
        and Rafali, and SU - only weights on the scales of history.
        Ch. In South Asia - the question of Afghanistan - an armored train without wheels
    2. kenig1
      kenig1 April 27 2018 06: 29
      +2
      With 126 units shrunk to 36 aircraft?
      1. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich April 27 2018 06: 45
        +3
        Pakistani gambit of Putin
        I would call it "tsutswang" for the Indians, that is, forcing the move ...
        1. aszzz888
          aszzz888 April 27 2018 07: 24
          +6
          Andrei Yurievich (Andrei Yurievich) Today, 06: 45 ↑
          Pakistani gambit of Putin
          I would call it "zutswang" for the Indians,i.e. forcing to move.

          It is time to bring these "gypsies" to life and land. Indians have recently thought too much of themselves.
          1. bouncyhunter
            bouncyhunter April 27 2018 10: 15
            +4
            Pakistan is looking at China, which the Su-35 itself is buying. But what will be the reaction of India? We will see ...
            1. novel66
              novel66 April 27 2018 11: 00
              +3
              Pasha. Hi hi the reaction will be understandable - they will dance and sing something
              1. bouncyhunter
                bouncyhunter April 27 2018 11: 03
                +2
                Salute, Roma! hi
                Quote: novel xnumx
                the reaction will be understandable - they will dance and sing something

                The traditions of Bollywood are yes. But I’m saying that India will either think it over and turn less poop around, or rush into the open arms of the United States. You yourself understand what and to whom it is beneficial in both cases.
                1. Black Colonel
                  Black Colonel April 27 2018 13: 43
                  +3
                  For starters, the Americans will offer free F-16s, surviving their resource. And then, in order to extend their life, in parallel, they will offer concrete contracts, accompanied by the traditional bakshish, to the right people.
                  1. bouncyhunter
                    bouncyhunter April 27 2018 13: 45
                    +2
                    As for free - I'm not sure, but the scenario is quite likely.
                2. KOJIXO3HuK
                  KOJIXO3HuK April 27 2018 15: 40
                  +3
                  Since independence, India has been a good partner of the USSR in trade. A lot of enterprises in the agricultural sector and a much more expensive pharmacological "sharpened" for cooperation with Russia. If the "ministers-administrators" cannot agree, then the caste oligarchs will find an opportunity not to lose the Northern Markets. Even if we are not talking about exchanging a “peaceful atom” for “no-shpu”, let’s say about purchasing Cordobas, ammunition and spare parts in exchange for Uncle Vanya cucumbers ... But what? We eat a lot of them!
                  1. Walking
                    Walking April 28 2018 15: 57
                    0
                    India was a good partner while the Indian National Congress was in power and now the nationalists have taken power.
        2. evil partisan
          evil partisan April 27 2018 12: 31
          +2
          Quote: Andrey Yurievich
          "tsutsvang" for the Indians, that is, forcing to move ...

          Yes, you, my friend, is also a chess player! belay
          1. E2-E4. Walk, amateur! wink
          Hi Andryukha! drinks
    3. venik
      venik April 27 2018 08: 46
      0
      Quote: Andrey Yurievich
      what about rafal?

      ========
      Well, compared too !!! "Rafalchik" will be cheaper twice as much as two and a half to three, if not more !!
      1. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich April 27 2018 11: 10
        +3
        Quote: venik
        Quote: Andrey Yurievich
        what about rafal?

        ========
        Well, compared too !!! "Rafalchik" will be cheaper twice as much as two and a half to three, if not more !!

        Well, so they look at him, but they are "sick of it" .... he has one engine. and the Indians credo "in any incomprehensible situation, catapult." with two "motors" it is somehow more reliable. yes
    4. Zaurbek
      Zaurbek April 27 2018 11: 37
      +2
      The most cost-effective for Hindus is to upgrade further the Su-30MKI (using new engines, radars and avionics) and its maximum localization. And in the future, the development of the Tejas2 with the same engine and dry cabin.
  2. Bastinda
    Bastinda April 27 2018 06: 25
    +3
    Of course, the loss of a very capacious Indian arms market is not at all what meets the interests of the Russian Federation.

    "And the rest, beautiful marquise, all is well, all is well!"
    1. Berber
      Berber April 27 2018 08: 39
      +2
      Welcome to the multipolar world. "Not there so here."
      In short, a good hairpin for Indians is a reminder of their multi-vector nature.
  3. Sergey985
    Sergey985 April 27 2018 06: 33
    +3
    A moot point. And India should not be abandoned, and Pakistan should not be flirted with much. Sooner or later, in Pakistan with China we will begin to push our elbows.
    1. Don
      Don April 27 2018 07: 08
      +1
      An old friend is better than two new ones hi
      1. novel66
        novel66 April 27 2018 11: 00
        +3
        and if a friend was suddenly ...?
  4. aszzz888
    aszzz888 April 27 2018 07: 22
    +3
    For many decades, Pakistan was the "third odd" in Russian (and even Soviet) politics on the Hindustan.

    Better later than never - at the extreme SCO summit, they consider accepting Afghanistan and Pakistan into the organization. We will see.
  5. alex-cn
    alex-cn April 27 2018 07: 34
    +1
    Well, this is a good slap in the face to the Indians ... And then they want to eat the fish and not freeze the tail.
  6. parma
    parma April 27 2018 08: 03
    +8
    That's why I love Urapatriotov, even in bad news through the most unexpected places they will find a bright grain and announce that everything is going according to the plan of the authorities ...
    To begin with, we ourselves are shoving India to the United States, flirting with China about deliveries of both S-400 and Su-35 ... Given that China is unreliable as a partner, no one remembers the history of the Su-30? Or with an aircraft carrier casino? + try to retract the prototype, and for the money received make it candy (Su-57, MiG-35, etc.)
    Further, Pakistan simply doesn’t have any money ... They just recently bought around the world the old Mirages of the 3rd model and F-16 of the first releases, and then at once 54 Su-35s ... This is despite the fact that they never had Russian (Soviet) aircraft and are actively trying to rearm on a Chinese aircraft of their own assembly ..
    Well, for the sweet of the US-India or Pakistan-China tandems, I would not be in a hurry to choose China so quickly ...
  7. groks
    groks April 27 2018 08: 52
    +3
    By the way, one of the consequences of such a policy of the USSR was the Afghan war, in which Pakistan was not bound by obligations to the Russians and became the main military bridgehead of the United States to overthrow the pro-Soviet authorities
    What nonsense? If we were friends with India, then we could no longer be friends with Pakistan. And if the Americans got in there, then naturally it was their springboard. What did you have to do in politics to smoke amers from Pakistan? To quarrel with India?
    1. andj61
      andj61 April 27 2018 09: 04
      +3
      Quote: groks
      What nonsense? If we were friends with India, then we could no longer be friends with Pakistan. And if the Americans got in there, then naturally it was their springboard. What did you have to do in politics to smoke amers from Pakistan? To quarrel with India?

      Friendship with the USSR did not prevent India - in the context of global confrontation and the Cold War - from having very good relations with the Americans. Yes, and with Pakistan during the time of Z.A. Bhutto we had a good relationship. They deteriorated after coming to power as a result of the coup in 1977 of General Zia ul Haq. He headed for the Islamization of the country, he supported the radicals and the Americans in their quest to annoy the USSR in Afghanistan. But this happened already after the USSR publicly repeatedly opposed General Zia - personal relations also played a role here. After Zia left in 1988, the daughter of the former leader Benazir Bhutto was already quite negotiable. hi
      1. groks
        groks April 27 2018 10: 19
        +1
        Benazir returned too late. And in India, they did not prepare Mujahideen for Afghanistan. For all their friendship with the USA.
        1. andj61
          andj61 April 27 2018 16: 15
          +1
          Quote: groks
          Benazir returned too late. And in India, they did not prepare Mujahideen for Afghanistan. For all their friendship with the USA.

          So they are not Muslims. And Benazir inherited the militant training camps, the radicals, and the hostility of the military. So even despite a decrease in the activity of Americans in this direction from the second half of the 80s, Pakistan was still practically on the side of the broads. True, there is also strained with the borders - there is a zone of free tribes, which Pakistan belongs only nominally, but very many militants were based there. hi
  8. 23rus
    23rus April 27 2018 09: 04
    +1
    Strategy. The same weapon gives Russia the right to try on Pakistan and India, and later the railway from India, past the Red Sea, to Europe.
  9. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov April 27 2018 09: 06
    +7
    Lord Again, the author in the pseudo-patriotic orgasm of Putin’s gambit-gambit seems to be. Have you already bought planes ?! If not, there is nothing to verbally!
    1. Abalon
      Abalon April 27 2018 09: 40
      +4
      Yes, the author is well done. Either he has an analyst based on an April Fools' joke, or based on rumors.
    2. groks
      groks April 27 2018 10: 24
      +1
      Well, if they buy it? What will seriously change from this? Taking into account all the gaskets, this money will not be noticed in the MiG.
    3. sib.ataman
      sib.ataman April 27 2018 10: 47
      0
      Man! Do not suffer verbal incontinence! And maybe people will reach for you!
      1. andrej-shironov
        andrej-shironov April 27 2018 14: 41
        0
        smile If you are to me, then it makes no difference to me whether people will reach out to me or not. All who are important to me are here, family, friends. Everyone else, including you, doesn't interest me lol
    4. Tomato
      Tomato April 27 2018 18: 41
      +4
      Why don’t you believe in the genius of our master of multi-portions? Indeed, there are only victories all around ..... here the tan will collapse soon. And the dollar is just a green piece of paper, Mishka Leontyev told me (50 times).
  10. zyzx
    zyzx April 27 2018 10: 06
    0
    Hindus, this is a medieval caste society. Pakistanis, the same Indians, but castes and corruption there are leveled by Islam. The Chinese were luckiest, the class society there collapsed, and the socialist path of development would not allow him to rejoice.
    1. BastaKarapuzik And
      BastaKarapuzik And April 27 2018 12: 18
      +1
      There is nothing particularly socialist in China. The country is the world factory of capitalists and the main creditor of America. Integration is almost 100%.
      1. zyzx
        zyzx April 27 2018 12: 28
        0
        Quote: BastaKarapuzikI
        There is nothing particularly socialist in China.

        there is a lot. But even if we assume that there is none at all, then at least it was and broke the class society, which is not in India.
  11. pavelty
    pavelty April 27 2018 10: 08
    +1
    Oh, I strongly doubt the reality of this contract ... especially for so many cars
  12. andrewkor
    andrewkor April 27 2018 10: 11
    +1
    So Pakistan and the SCO will soon accept, will solve common issues together with India!
  13. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat April 27 2018 10: 20
    +2
    Pakistani gambit of Putin

    I chose the "correct" title for the article, and how the article immediately "played" .... wink
  14. sib.ataman
    sib.ataman April 27 2018 10: 44
    0
    The direction is real, promising not only in the sale of weapons, but also in big politics! India and Pakistan joined the SCO, where the Russian Federation plays an important role! And, just as in the confrontation between China-USA and India-Pakistan, the Russian Federation can become a reliable mediator in their difficult affairs! The main thing is to put yourself competently, and not to rush into a hot embrace with anyone!
    1. 23rus
      23rus April 27 2018 13: 57
      0
      Whatever it was, but trade is the engine of progress.
  15. turbris
    turbris April 27 2018 11: 36
    0
    While the contract with Pakistan is hypothetical, it’s too early to talk about it, although I agree with the author of the article that some cunning Indians are unlikely to like it. But the desire to sit on two major arms suppliers at the same time, has never led to good results, all the talk about diversification of supplies was reduced to a desire to lower the price. As a result, the supplied weapons quickly became obsolete, and the modern one became smaller and smaller. An example of the Arab countries is evident after the completion of the supply of Soviet weapons.
  16. Wolka
    Wolka April 27 2018 18: 03
    0
    it was worth waving so much with language, everything is simple, the distance is not the same, because the market and nothing personal ...
  17. Tomato
    Tomato April 27 2018 18: 24
    +1
    China will always be a lonely power. Too specific civilization. He will have tremendous economic power, influence, but no one will unite with him in a certain alliance.
  18. sanyasn
    sanyasn April 27 2018 19: 40
    +1
    Our leadership behaves correctly, does not press on anyone, does not flirt with anyone, if you want to take it, let's negotiate, do not want a tablecloth path. The main thing is that the quality is adequate to the time. And in the long run, a direct and honest position always wins, and “what you please” is the destiny of the poor poor.
    1. Cossack 471
      Cossack 471 April 27 2018 21: 21
      +1
      I did not like the title of the article. What is a gambit? No movements to purchase our equipment are heard. Again the "cunning plan." as well as "our promising tractor" will supplant .... And it is not there yet. he is only on paper
  19. Normal ok
    Normal ok April 27 2018 21: 57
    0
    However, one cannot fail to pay attention to the literal coincidence in time of this “rumor” with the news about the refusal of the neighboring country of Pakistan, India, to jointly develop the fifth-generation Indian fighter with Russia.

    So today the article on VO was, with a refutation of this "rumor". so that all the “analytics” built on this promise goes to dust.
    It happens that when you read the headline, you already know who wrote the article. So here, having read the slogan about “Putin’s gambit”, I was sure that it was Selivanov. Correct slogans, that’s “its all.” Soviet propaganda school can not be erased wassat
  20. Petrol cutter
    Petrol cutter April 28 2018 21: 09
    +3
    Personally, I don’t give a damn about whom they will sell. India, Pakistan, Afghanistan. The main thing for me is that the plants are loaded with work. And professionals didn’t go to weed grass around the workshop!
  21. bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 April 30 2018 10: 53
    0
    I think that Pakistan is a very promising partner. It’s impossible to get on with Afghanistan without Pakistan.
  22. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 1 May 2018 04: 19
    +2
    Gambit (from Italian gambetto - bandwagon) is the common name for openings in which one of the parties, in the interests of faster development, capture of the center or just to sharpen the game, donates material (usually a pawn, but sometimes also a light piece).

    What a big name: Pakistani gambit of Putin
    There are no gambits in night hockey, as in judo, judo after Kostya Tszyu. We ate "cunning plans", and spring decrees, and the right expressions of concern. What about Pakistan? I'm closer to playing on the Russian board. And here I see that there are more heavy figures (oligarchs, officials, high-income loafers), and light ones (whose income within the minimum wage with small changes up or down) does not decrease. request