“Consent is a product with complete non-resistance of the parties!” - the character of the unforgettable “Twelve Chairs” uttered in due time, thanks to which we now have a universal formula for the success of any international negotiations. Including the so-called "summits". That is, meetings at the highest state level.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is very optimistic in this regard:
“Donald Trump several times, both in tweets and in words, said that it was necessary to solve issues with Russia, we want to have good relations with Russia, it’s better than not having good relations, and only a fool thinks otherwise. All this we also hear about the normalization of relations with .. Returning to the issue of the risks of military confrontation, I assume 100% of what the military will not allow, and this, of course, will not allow neither President Putin, nor the President Trump After all, they are leaders who are elected by their peoples, they are responsible to these peoples for peace and tranquility. ”
There is no doubt that Russia is not interested in exacerbating the confrontation with the United States, and President Putin fully controls the foreign policy of his country and, accordingly, can do everything necessary and possible to normalize relations with Washington.
But is the current owner of the White House capable of something like that? Alas, this is not a fact.
It is appropriate to consider two possible options.
The first is that Donald Trump really doesn’t mean anything when he says that you need to have a good relationship with Russia. And at the same time he understands that this cannot be the relationship of a suzerain and a vassal. That is, Trump, as a true patriot of America and a nationally oriented leader, is truly faithful to his election program and is determined not to go into the affairs of other countries and to deal primarily with solving actual American problems. Which, by the way, a dime a dozen.
In this case, we can assume that Trump is sympathetic to the position of Putin, who, in essence, wants exactly the same for his country. And to assume that, on the basis of such mutual understanding, there are good chances for a consensus solution of the most acute bilateral problems and for the great success of the personal meeting of the two world leaders.
And now option number two. Which completely crosses out what is written above. Even though Trump himself may be thinking exactly the way we just wrote.
And this applies primarily to the very possibility of the Russian-American "summit". If the ruling circles of the United States as a whole, and this is far from just Trump and his inner circle, are set up in relations with Moscow only in the “overlord-vassal” mode, then such a summit, in their understanding, will only make sense as a platform for formalizing these unequal relations.
However, the experience of the world stories teaches that productive negotiations with such a view can take place only as a result of a victorious war for one of the parties.
Meanwhile, this “fact of the event”, we do not observe today. The collapse of the USSR, which in the West was regarded as its own victory, giving the right to dictate any conditions to Russia, a thing of the past and he has already won back his own. "Kemu parish" and much more tasty, according to the results of that long-time Victoria, Russia has already choked off the West.
In relation to the current Russian Federation, the West requires other and also quite weighty arguments. Does he have it? Is not a fact! Let's briefly go over the spectrum of its capabilities.
In the sociopolitical sphere, the traditional calculation of the West to undermine Russian society and destabilize Russia from the inside has obviously failed, a clear confirmation of which was the unprecedented high support for Vladimir Putin’s course in the recent presidential elections. The Russians, which was quite predictable, only consolidate even more under increasing external pressure and are increasingly determined in relation to those agents of Western influence whom they had previously endured.
In the economic field, the West has almost exhausted its ability to exert pressure on Russia. Everything that can be done beyond this will result in a strong negative effect for the West itself, primarily for its European part, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the disintegration processes in the Euro-Atlantic space itself. The possibilities of the US to manipulate its European allies in this sense are far from infinite. Even Germany, which is very tolerant to Washington, is no longer able to withstand the regime of economic Russophobia imposed from overseas and is more and more insistently asking Trump to release her from this unbearable burden. With Italy, on the basis of disagreements over Russia, the matter has already completely reached the direct threats of the US State Department with “serious consequences” for this country in the event of withdrawal from the anti-Russian sanctions regime.
Meanwhile, the Russian economy, declared "torn to shreds" by Washington dreamer Barack Obama, is in no hurry to confirm this diagnosis. And, on the contrary, it seems that it only perks up after the opportunity has appeared to at least slightly slow down the avalanche of Western imports, which has been stifling its own production of goods in the bud.
The “international economic isolation” of the Russian Federation also turned out to be a trifold caftan. As recently as yesterday, the government of the People's Republic of China, a country unconditionally focused on close and long-term geopolitical relations with the Russian Federation, once again confirmed that Western sanctions have nothing to do and will not affect Russian-Chinese economic cooperation. So here, too, there are no special reasons for the nomination of “Rus, give up!” Ultimatums from Washington.
Finally, on the key military-political track in this regard, America also has practically nothing to cover Putin’s very strong trumps. Russia has proved that with a military budget of at least 10 times smaller than the US, it can spend its defense money more successfully and efficiently and achieve breakthrough results that have no analogues in the world. Taking into account the totality of Russian innovative military-technical developments in present-day America, which was rather relaxed on the occasion of the obviously prematurely announced “end of history”, all that remains is to swallow the dust. Especially since the American military itself is so mired in corruption and in the senseless waste of government money, that it is fit for it to think about tempering its ambitions.
And this is not just a figure of speech. Here is just a short list of the most recent American “epic file” in the military-strategic area.
- The United States built the most expensive destroyer in the world, such as the Zamuault, at a cost of $ 7 billion apiece. As a result, the construction program for these golden boats was reduced from thirty to a negligible two units. A the fleet The United States remains content with destroyers such as the Arly Burke, which have been building for more than thirty years.
- America built the most expensive aircraft carrier in the world, “Gerald Ford” for 13 billion dollars, not including operating costs. Today it is clear that such expensive ships can not afford even the United States. And this is despite the fact that they can be disabled by one or two punches of a penny, in comparison with the cost of the same Ford, the Russian hypersonic Dagger.
- America has invested tens of billions of dollars in creating a global missile defense system against Russia. As a result, Russia built the Sarmat ICBM with unlimited range, hypersonic maneuverable combat units Avangard to them and cruise missiles with a nuclear engine, for which the American missile defense system is an empty sound.
- America began to build a fleet of so-called "littoral ships", which hastened to declare unsurpassed weapons for waging war in the coastal theater of operations. As a result, Russia has built a small corvettes project 22160, which, according to the Americans themselves, are much more successful combination of size and firepower:
"Russia is building half a dozen 22160 patrol ships that use an innovative and compact design that provides many capabilities and a potentially huge combat strike in a relatively small hull."
As a result, the littoral ships in America that did not have time to become famous in real battles are already called "a floating pile of garbage." "After 16 years and billions of dollars were spent, the US Navy apparently finally admitted that the coastal warship program LCS looks like an absolute failure," writes another American publication.
The United States developed the fabulously expensive F-35 fighter, which has become famous throughout the world for its chronic inability to recover from its critical dependence on its super-sophisticated electronics, which can bring a pilot at any time. Israeli pilots, who will have to risk their lives on these unpredictable machines, are asking their command to rid them of this punishment and give them to fly on old but much more reliable F-15. And the US Air Forces themselves have already reduced their appetites for the purchase of the F-35 by exactly half, and it seems that this is far from the limit. That is, there is a failure.
But these are still only flowers against the background of the fact that American military power turned out to be extremely stupid and ineffective in cases of its actual use. This is most clearly manifested in Syria. Here literally all major US military bets collapsed. Starting from the underground weapons of local gangs of Basmachis, who, undoubtedly, will be finished off by the legitimate authorities of this country. And ending with the alpha and omega of US global military ambitions - rocket-bombing. The inefficiency of which, moreover, inefficiency, increasing with each time, despite all the spells of Trump and his support group from among the publications, masking under the Russian media, is visible, as they say, to the naked eye. America was never able to show absolutely nothing standing, except for a couple of unintelligible photographs, in order to back up its verbal blizzard about the “crushing blow” to Syria and the alleged ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems.
Thus, summing up this brief excursion into the sphere of American hegemonic ambitions and real possibilities, one can make only one and quite definite conclusion. The present-day America has absolutely nothing that it could lay on the table of the future Russian-American summit in support of its claims to unconditional recognition by Russia of its subordinate position in relation to the United States.
But then, it is asked, for what the ass accordion? I mean, why does the American ruling circles have an equal meeting of the leaders of the two great powers, during which the obvious fact of the strategic equality of the parties and the lack of real possibilities for the United States to impose its will on Russia will be confirmed without options?
I repeat, Trump himself would probably agree with such an agenda. At least, he himself went to the presidency under the slogan of folding the American world hegemony, which the further, the more it becomes a burden for the people of this country. But it is very doubtful that those powerful forces that are currently conducting American foreign policy and manipulating Trump himself, forcing him to constantly prove how tough Putin's tamer are, agree to such an equal summit. Which for them is equivalent to the geopolitical surrender of the United States and the complete rejection of the idea of a unipolar American world, on which everything is built in the States today.
The alternative for these circles can only be that which promises an acceptable result. That is a victorious war. Anywhere and whatever, but necessarily such, after which the enemy in the person of Russia will finally mature in order to accept the world on American terms. And although the chances of such a victory for the current United States are even less than 20 or 10 years ago, when Russia was just concentrating, overseas there is a clear understanding that tomorrow there will be even less of these chances. Because time ultimately works against the decrepit West, and every wasted day they lose can be fatal for him.
In this situation, Trump will not go to any summit. Thus, the hand of Russia stretched out to him as a sign of friendship will most likely hang in the air. For agreement, once again, there is a product only with the complete non-resistance of both parties.