Trump's big bluff, or who will “punish” Syria?
I want to immediately warn. The only rational consideration by which I was guided in the preparation of this military-political report is the natural desire to understand the situation we are in. And how real is the threat of a direct armed clash between Russia and the United States in the Middle East theater of military operations, which is much talked about now.
It should be understood that the factual data indicated in the summary may be intentionally distorted by a potential adversary in the manner of military disinformation. And they can also be several days behind real time. Which, however, is not critical given the low speed of movement of ship forces fleet.
So, what do we see (with the above reservations) in the sea areas, either adjacent to Syria, or located in operational proximity to it?
The official site of the US 6 fleet, headquartered in Naples, reports that the missile destroyer Donald Cook 9 April left the Cyprus port of Larnaca, where he was on a working visit. This fact is confirmed by numerous media reports, so there is no doubt. Currently, the "Cook" physically could not manage to leave the region of the Eastern Mediterranean and, therefore, is located somewhere off the coast of Syria.
Other destroyers from the permanent compound of the forward-deployed US Navy in the Spanish port of Roth occupy the following positions. The Porter missile destroyer (which took part in an attack on Syria in March 2017) is on a working visit at the port of Cherbourg in northwestern France, that is, outside the zone of operational reach of Syria. The 31 Karni missile destroyer in March returned to the rota basing station (Spain) after completing the three-month combat duty in the 6 fleet of the United States.
Ross destroyer “Ross” (another member of last year’s missile strike on Syria) participates in joint training with the British fleet, presumably in the area of the port of Plymouth.
The deployment of aircraft carriers and amphibious advanced groups. According to the Stratfor American edition, the operational situation as of April 4 this year. (there are no later data) in the sea areas on the near and far approaches to Syria the following. The aircraft carriers "Abraham Lincoln" and "George Bush", previously went on the tactical training in the Atlantic Ocean, returned to their bases. The carrier Theodore Roosevelt is on a visit to Singapore. The aircraft carriers Carl Vinson and John Stennis operate as part of the US 7 fleet in the Pacific. According to the Stratforr data, there are no other aircraft carrier strike groups deployed anywhere in the oceans, according to Stratfor, on April 4.
Thus, within a radius of approximately 5 thousands of nautical miles from the territory of Syria, if you believe this edition, as of April 4, there is not a single carrier-based strike group of the US Navy. I'd add that stories American military aggression after the Second World War, there was not a single case of military attack on any of the coastal foreign countries without the involvement of large US naval forces, especially attack aircraft carriers.
According to the same publication, the only group of amphibious assault forces of the US Navy (LHD7 led by UDC Iwo Jima) is located in the operational space of the 5 US fleet at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. And if this is true, it can not be immediately involved in amphibious operations against Syria.
In addition, according to the command of the US 6 fleet, the only full-time ship of this fleet, Mount Whitney, performing the functions of the headquarters command ship in the event of hostilities, is currently visiting Dakar (Senegal) at the end of the multinational naval exercises with a number of African countries.
General conclusion: If we proceed from the above data, there are no signs of preparation of the US Navy for large-scale military operations against Syria and, moreover, against the Russian armed forces in the Syrian theater of operations. Nevertheless, it is impossible to exclude the presence in the operational vicinity of the Syrian territory of several more missile destroyers of the US Navy, in addition to "Donald Cook", as well as multi-purpose nuclear submarines capable of delivering a limited power strike to individual Syrian targets.
Once again, this summary can be of practical importance for understanding the operational situation only if we assume that its sources (mostly American) as a whole do not distort reality. But everyone must decide for himself.
Information