Trump's big bluff, or who will “punish” Syria?

71
Operational data available from open sources paint a picture completely opposite to the apocalyptic prophecies of the American administration.





I want to immediately warn. The only rational consideration by which I was guided in the preparation of this military-political report is the natural desire to understand the situation we are in. And how real is the threat of a direct armed clash between Russia and the United States in the Middle East theater of military operations, which is much talked about now.

It should be understood that the factual data indicated in the summary may be intentionally distorted by a potential adversary in the manner of military disinformation. And they can also be several days behind real time. Which, however, is not critical given the low speed of movement of ship forces fleet.

So, what do we see (with the above reservations) in the sea areas, either adjacent to Syria, or located in operational proximity to it?

The official site of the US 6 fleet, headquartered in Naples, reports that the missile destroyer Donald Cook 9 April left the Cyprus port of Larnaca, where he was on a working visit. This fact is confirmed by numerous media reports, so there is no doubt. Currently, the "Cook" physically could not manage to leave the region of the Eastern Mediterranean and, therefore, is located somewhere off the coast of Syria.

Other destroyers from the permanent compound of the forward-deployed US Navy in the Spanish port of Roth occupy the following positions. The Porter missile destroyer (which took part in an attack on Syria in March 2017) is on a working visit at the port of Cherbourg in northwestern France, that is, outside the zone of operational reach of Syria. The 31 Karni missile destroyer in March returned to the rota basing station (Spain) after completing the three-month combat duty in the 6 fleet of the United States.

Ross destroyer “Ross” (another member of last year’s missile strike on Syria) participates in joint training with the British fleet, presumably in the area of ​​the port of Plymouth.

The deployment of aircraft carriers and amphibious advanced groups. According to the Stratfor American edition, the operational situation as of April 4 this year. (there are no later data) in the sea areas on the near and far approaches to Syria the following. The aircraft carriers "Abraham Lincoln" and "George Bush", previously went on the tactical training in the Atlantic Ocean, returned to their bases. The carrier Theodore Roosevelt is on a visit to Singapore. The aircraft carriers Carl Vinson and John Stennis operate as part of the US 7 fleet in the Pacific. According to the Stratforr data, there are no other aircraft carrier strike groups deployed anywhere in the oceans, according to Stratfor, on April 4.

Thus, within a radius of approximately 5 thousands of nautical miles from the territory of Syria, if you believe this edition, as of April 4, there is not a single carrier-based strike group of the US Navy. I'd add that stories American military aggression after the Second World War, there was not a single case of military attack on any of the coastal foreign countries without the involvement of large US naval forces, especially attack aircraft carriers.

Trump's big bluff, or who will “punish” Syria?


According to the same publication, the only group of amphibious assault forces of the US Navy (LHD7 led by UDC Iwo Jima) is located in the operational space of the 5 US fleet at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. And if this is true, it can not be immediately involved in amphibious operations against Syria.

In addition, according to the command of the US 6 fleet, the only full-time ship of this fleet, Mount Whitney, performing the functions of the headquarters command ship in the event of hostilities, is currently visiting Dakar (Senegal) at the end of the multinational naval exercises with a number of African countries.

General conclusion: If we proceed from the above data, there are no signs of preparation of the US Navy for large-scale military operations against Syria and, moreover, against the Russian armed forces in the Syrian theater of operations. Nevertheless, it is impossible to exclude the presence in the operational vicinity of the Syrian territory of several more missile destroyers of the US Navy, in addition to "Donald Cook", as well as multi-purpose nuclear submarines capable of delivering a limited power strike to individual Syrian targets.

Once again, this summary can be of practical importance for understanding the operational situation only if we assume that its sources (mostly American) as a whole do not distort reality. But everyone must decide for himself.
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  1. +1
    April 10 2018 12: 06
    The author at the main naval headquarters. It’s how I sorted everything out. Where is who and where is going. In the coming week, no attack on the sea can be expected from Syria.
    1. +10
      April 10 2018 12: 20
      From the sea, you may not have to wait (!?). And what happens at military bases nearby Syria? What forces are gathered, what are the combat capabilities of these forces. Do not forget about the US allies in the region. And then that in the history of American military aggressions after the Second World War there was not a single case of a military attack on any of the coastal foreign states without the involvement of large formations of the US naval forces, primarily strike aircraft carriers , still not talking about anything
      1. +6
        April 10 2018 16: 34
        Quote: shura sailors
        Do not forget about the US allies in the region.

        Exactly, they, with an ally like Israel, do not need aircraft carriers, and the Turkish air base is baud sideways with Erdogan’s twisting ass. We consider all possible scenarios, taking into account the Saudis and Co. So there is still a snake den.
    2. +10
      April 10 2018 12: 21
      The question is where the modified Ohio submarines with cruise missiles.
      1. +8
        April 10 2018 13: 44
        xa1 under water. naturally!
        1. +8
          April 10 2018 14: 16
          She is more comfortable and safer there. smile hi Roma! hi
          1. +6
            April 10 2018 14: 37
            Hello! hi and if he doesn’t stick out, you look, and the nerd will survive
      2. 0
        April 10 2018 19: 12
        At a stroke distance, in Syria, they will do.
    3. Maz
      0
      April 12 2018 08: 21
      What am I talking to you about? A week you can live in peace.
  2. +3
    April 10 2018 12: 36
    The only way to prevent the strike is to drown the nearest destroyers before the start of the Trump’s decision. Surrender will not work.
    1. +16
      April 10 2018 12: 42
      Drown someone before the start of the amer strike, so we immediately fall into the category of aggressor with all the ensuing consequences. Just punch to punch.
      1. +7
        April 10 2018 14: 01
        Quote: Borik
        Drown someone before the start of the amer strike, so we immediately fall into the category of aggressor with all the ensuing consequences. Just punch to punch.

        I do not want to disappoint you, but when, for example, the Anglo-Saxons were stopped by a lack of facts. Take the devastated Yugoslavia, which was unprovenly and unfoundedly accused of all mortal sins and torn to pieces without a twinge of conscience. And Iraq, the aggression against which was organized after the concussion in the UN Security Council, test tubes with either sugar or chalk. The Anglo-Saxons did the same with Afghanistan and Libya.
        So, even if tomorrow the “cookie” or “bush” accidentally capsize near the mooring wall, it is quite possible that Russia or the GDP itself will easily be blamed for this misfortune.
        Therefore, you should never give up what may be a deterrent for gentlemen with indefatigable ambitions.
        1. 0
          April 10 2018 20: 35
          Therefore, you should never give up what may be a deterrent for gentlemen with indefatigable ambitions.
          Based on the current situation in the place of GDP, I would order the nuclear triad to begin military deployment. Nothing can cool the ardor like the abandoned hangars and quays of Yarsa and Borei.
        2. +1
          April 10 2018 20: 36
          Yugoslavia now lives very well! Better than Russia, and much better than before.
          1. +6
            April 10 2018 22: 32
            Quote: misti1973
            Yugoslavia now lives very well! Better than Russia, and much better than before.

            Dismembered, torn off a piece under the largest
            US base Camp Bondstyle in Kosovo, made a puppet (target), not well, maybe you personally have such a “good life” and it suits - to be the bedding of the USA.
          2. +3
            April 10 2018 23: 32
            Like last summer, I didn’t notice that they were better off than us. Not better than me is a fact ...
          3. +3
            April 11 2018 11: 04
            Quote: misti1973
            Yugoslavia now lives very well! Better than Russia, and much better than before.

            Yugoslavia no longer lives!
          4. +1
            April 12 2018 00: 06
            The main consequences of the war are Serbia. and they live very poorly there. Even the Montenegrins howl that they live worse than during the Soviet Union, especially when "out of season"
          5. 0
            April 14 2018 05: 18
            That's the difference between Russians always, we don’t want to live beautifully, and obey someone .. we have our own way, and we don’t live according to the instructions of the Gentiles .. at least for cookies .. at least for jam !!!
      2. +21
        April 10 2018 14: 11
        Borik (Boris) Today, 12:42 ↑ New
        Drown someone before the start of the amer strike, so we immediately fall into the category of aggressor with all the ensuing consequences. Just punch to punch.
        I agree. Only then we will also have to prove to the type of "world community" that we used force in response to the use of force by the United States.
        How much I study history, nothing changes in the world, only weapons change from batons to nuclear missiles, and nothing changes in terms of politics. The strong always tries to gobble up the weak. And if earlier in the ancient world, they didn’t especially soar with the justification of the attack, now in the age of information technology, anti-Russian hysteria says a lot. That is, their media are conducting a massive attack on their electorate in order to make Russia a monster, in order to justify then any of their satanic actions against our country and our people.
        This has happened more than once. Look at the color in which the Western and, first of all, the English press exposed the Crimean War, what they wrote about us when we stood a stone's throw from the capture of Constantinople in 1878, what streams of dirt poured into the ears of Germans from the mouth of Hitler and Goebbels in 1941 oh. One could not have mentioned the Cold War, if the degree that is now did not overlap the one that was during the Caribbean crisis. Then they could stop, but can we now, that’s the question of questions ?!
        The West, this is the fiend of hell, this is a hyena eating to what it can only reach its bloodstained little hands can never forgive Russia for its very existence, and even in such territories, and even with such resources. Only here they apparently don’t teach at all there, WHO WILL COME TO US WITH A SWORD, AND WILL DIE FROM THE SWORD! Another thing is that the sword is now such that all life on Earth can perish. However, probably we are not the first and apparently we are not the last civilization on this planet. Here is such a "pichal-bida" ... recourse
        1. +2
          April 10 2018 17: 24
          It is not clear why it is necessary to prove something to the fiends of hell? You just need to evaluate the operational environment and not substitute. If it is advisable to hit first - beat! And introduce censorship in the media so that they do not spread enemy propaganda.
          1. 0
            April 11 2018 15: 03
            There is no enemy propaganda, where the people without concealment speaks and tries to communicate. We trust our own people and people should be trusted by the authorities. Then censorship tries are not needed - Putin proves this by example.
      3. 0
        April 10 2018 18: 17
        We must drown the whole of America. And offer their fleet to switch to our side.
    2. +2
      April 10 2018 18: 29
      The only way to prevent the strike is to drown the next destroyers before the start of the "Trump decision"

      Before that, you have to drown your barge, and blame the Americans and the British. And already in response to this shandarahnite on destroyers.
      Why not? It is necessary to fight the enemy with his own weapons.
  3. +1
    April 10 2018 13: 06
    The absence of AUGs off the coast of Syria is good, but do not forget about destroyers with missiles, Jews who have already tested the Syrian air defense with a missile attack from 2 fighters, and Macron has recently started to yap, and this one accepts any pose on the first striped whistle. So aggravation is possible and hardly worth relaxing.
    1. +3
      April 10 2018 13: 57
      And who is calling for this? It is written in black and white - the report is based on open sources of information that may well distort reality. Believe it. you want not.
  4. +1
    April 10 2018 13: 59
    Perhaps the ships were taken away so that there were no targets for a retaliatory strike.
    1. +1
      April 10 2018 14: 55
      Nobody canceled the submarine’s duty, intelligence also doesn’t sleep. In the modern world, removing away does not mean saving, perhaps on the contrary, putting it under attack. According to generally accepted concepts, it is possible with the launch of missiles in Syria, the response to the shooter starts at once.
  5. +1
    April 10 2018 15: 21
    The ill-fated Donald Cook is located 100 km from Tartus. By the appointed time, Porter could theoretically be in time. This is a total of about 160 "Axes". For the destruction of the bases of the Russian Federation it will not be enough, but it will be enough for the next action of intimidation.
    1. +2
      April 10 2018 15: 40
      160 axes are more than enough. the question is how many will reach the goals. slow-moving axes can be detected, direction-finding the source and strike at it. they put a cookie to the slaughter.
      1. +2
        April 10 2018 15: 47
        If theoretically not a single “ax” should be attacked in the “forehead” of the base of the Russian Federation, but in practice no one has tested it (and we hope and will not verify it).
        1. 0
          April 10 2018 20: 33
          It depends on how many Axes there are in a salvo! They all fly low (not like the Caliber). They simply won’t be able to shoot down all of them.
  6. 0
    April 10 2018 16: 10
    Already the assumptions about the deliberate destruction of the "Donald Cook", and blame Russia!
    I repeat once again. And a lot, a lot of people hope that if the war starts, they will forgive the debt on loans!
    1. +1
      April 10 2018 16: 24
      Nda. Burning a house together with family and neighbors, so as not to pay a mortgage, is an interesting solution to the problem. Here even the affairs of the Skripals and tubes "rest" on the sidelines.
  7. +2
    April 10 2018 16: 25
    It is naive to believe that Trump is "bluffing." The destroyer D. Cook (60 axes) is enough for a one-time strike, and Trump needs just that - a one-time strike, will fire, like a year ago, and blow the whole world that Assad is punished. The main question is what goals will be hit?
  8. +3
    April 10 2018 16: 31
    Quote: vvvjak
    The ill-fated Donald Cook is located 100 km from Tartus. By the appointed time, Porter could theoretically be in time. This is a total of about 160 "Axes". For the destruction of the bases of the Russian Federation it will not be enough, but it will be enough for the next action of intimidation.

    How many launchers (mines under "Axes") on the "Cook" and on the "Porter", you will not recall?
    1. +2
      April 10 2018 16: 55
      All 90, but not all (or rather, not always) are used under "Axes". It is unlikely that the Cook will get tired without the Standards.
      1. +3
        April 10 2018 18: 12
        Thank! If you stuff “Cook” with “Axes” to the eyeballs, then really 90. At night, the media wrote about 60, where the figure came from - it's unclear.
  9. +1
    April 10 2018 16: 33
    Whatever the politics of the USA or Britain, it is carried out by a limited group of individuals.
    These persons are all mortal, have relatives and other interests.
    You have to beat them ..
    There are many of them, they cannot protect everyone.
    This is the only way to prevent the deaths of tens of millions of people in the event of a new world war.
    The instigators must be punished.
    ps
    Ida)) It just needs political will!
  10. 0
    April 10 2018 16: 34
    Quote: yuriyselivanov
    And who is calling for this? It is written in black and white - the report is based on open sources of information that may well distort reality. Believe it. you want not.

    In favor of your report is the fact that there is no “coalition” knocking together. the Americans themselves do not fight; they need a pack. The question is, will both destroyers launch strike weapons or not? As a share of intimidation, they can, as the beginning of an invasion, by analogy with similar operations, definitely not.
  11. +1
    April 10 2018 17: 00
    This is alarming: only 2 destroyers. They "peacefully" launch their tomahawks, without plans for invasion, but threatening, at the same time, our troops. A ответ otvetka ’arrives and now ... evil Russia attacked defenseless Americans, just like the Swedes near Poltava.
    1. 0
      April 10 2018 17: 30
      And what, Syria does not have missile boats and coastal missiles?
  12. 0
    April 10 2018 17: 55
    The foregoing indicates only that the operation does not plan to use the forces of the fleet, but the fact that the provocations in Salisbury and the Duma were a leash for NATO actions in Syria or Ukraine is for sure. In vain the West will not conduct such large-scale propaganda actions. A major local conflict with the Russian Federation at the moment will unleash many protracted economic contradictions of the West. So, in particular, at Nord Stream 2, arms deliveries to third countries like Turkey, and God knows what else, you can safely put an end to it.
  13. +5
    April 10 2018 18: 10
    Trump has already wiped North Korea off the face of the earth. What is Syria from its threats then? as if before this Trump in Syria was distributing cookies. So what did he take 48 hours? Nothing will happen!
    1. +1
      April 10 2018 18: 13
      I agree. 60 missiles with one air base did nothing. This is all zilch. The remaining missile forces are not very afraid. Let them spend ammunition. There will be less left for Russia. And destroyers can drown ...
      1. +5
        April 11 2018 20: 56
        Well, Duc. We wrote about this yesterday. That trump has passed all the terms and ...? All this for the sake of American business. Scare, squeeze out of the market and ... went profit ...
  14. 0
    April 10 2018 18: 52
    But what if Donald Cook was assigned the role of a victim like an incident in the Gulf of Tonkin?
  15. 0
    April 10 2018 19: 17
    It’s time to give up ... So far we haven’t been hit on the slope ... And it's time to express a very deep concern about the concern ... The 6th US fleet is not a pound of raisins for you ...
    1. +5
      April 10 2018 19: 38
      Hello, who's stopping you. Come to the us embassy and say i give up
  16. 0
    April 10 2018 19: 36
    In all situations, the contingent will have to confront - or Russia dramatically loses credibility and geopolitics.

    Likewise, it’s blissing, either the owner of the forest or the circus stink in the muzzle ... The owner always has like-minded people and .., and in the circus .., we never performed! .. We watched more and more ...
  17. 0
    April 10 2018 19: 37
    If you see that fights can not be avoided, then hit first. Someone said so
  18. +1
    April 10 2018 19: 50
    Optimist, itch.
    1. +2
      April 10 2018 19: 51
      This is about the author.
  19. 0
    April 10 2018 20: 14
    Trump's big bluff, or who will “punish” Syria?
    Well, and what is this little article worth if news reports include information on building up the naval strike group of the American fleet in the Mediterranean! sad
  20. +2
    April 10 2018 20: 24
    Read RIA Novosti. The strike group is heading there: the aircraft carrier Harry Truman, the cruiser Normandy, six destroyers (laziness to list names) + Porter, Ross and Donald Cook will catch up (anyway, hang out nearby. And of course no one will say how many submarines went there . It looks like the smell of "kerosene",; just so, to scare, usually such forces do not pull! Even Germany and France + Israel (where would it be without it?).
  21. +1
    April 11 2018 06: 31
    Digital cameras and they completely or partially change the virtual and real world for American scout drones flying there, as well as knock down and confuse the navigation system of ships and neutralize GPS, then all these maneuvers, relocations and advancements cost nothing. They don’t see anything there! The painting by Peter Brueghel "Blind" is realized in the 21st century.
  22. wvg
    +1
    April 11 2018 09: 24
    Quote: credo
    So, even if tomorrow the “cookie” or “bush” accidentally capsize near the mooring wall, it is quite possible that Russia or the GDP itself will easily be blamed for this misfortune


    Good thought: it’s time to put a cookie with a bush against the wall!
  23. 0
    April 11 2018 09: 34
    Bluffing or a real threat to Syria is not yet clear, but the fact that there is a danger of an attack on Syria is serious
    sign. Syria is not North Korea. And then the United States and its allies are unbearable to show their strength. Syria Assistance Commitment
    Russia consisted in the supply of weapons, military advisers, training personnel. With the main task, the destruction
    ISIL’s main forces, Russia coped. Therefore, I believe that Russia does not need to get involved in a direct clash with the forces
    USA, Many political scientists say that Russia will lose its reputation by not intervening in this conflict. But this conflict
    may develop into an international one. But this is my personal opinion.
  24. +1
    April 11 2018 11: 49
    Without refuting the words and assumptions of Yuri Selivanov, I want to make two comments.
    The first one. Following stereotypes in military affairs has repeatedly led to severe military defeats. I mean his remark: "In the history of American military aggressions after the Second World War, there was not a single case of a military attack on any of the coastal foreign states without involving large formations of the US naval forces, primarily strike aircraft carriers." In our case, the United States has many allies who are ready to participate in the strike on Syria, and, in my opinion, the United States in the confrontation with Russia in the Syrian problem is more profitable to participate in the coalition and lead it to show Russia its complete isolation. In addition, the strike on Syria will probably be limited (unlike Russia's attacks on ISIS), since formally it will be a punishment for Syria’s alleged use of chemical weapons. For delivering a limited strike, which will have more political than military significance, strike aircraft carriers are not needed.
    The second one. The planned blow to Syria is, first of all, a blow to the image and politics of Russia, which, in my opinion, has recently acted largely in the poker bluff mode. Opportunities (economic, foreign policy, domestic, geographical and even military) in my opinion did not correspond to a very aggressive and unconstructive attitude in pursuing foreign policy in many issues, including the Syrian issue. Skripal’s case, as well as the lack of constructive Russian proposals aimed at actually mitigating tension in many of the acute problems in which Russia got stuck, only contributed to the deterioration of the situation. It seems that now the United States, using the alleged chemical attack by the Syrian government forces (I do not exclude the possibility that this attack, if it really took place, could have been carried out by some U.S.-friendly Syrian rebels) decided to check whether Russia’s actions and desires corresponded to its real capabilities. In addition, the United States fully expected the effect that the recent sanctions on Russia will have on Russia, its economy and domestic political situation.
    A bad service to Putin was his receipt of 76% of the vote after an explicit, vivid, but unnecessary and imprudent aggressive demonstration of his military and political intentions with a clearly provocative cartoon with a possible nuclear strike on the United States and its consequences. The United States rightly regarded this step as intimidation, and their desire to show Russia and the whole world that they were not very afraid was quite understandable. And Putin can regard these 76% as full support of the people for their active actions. If so, then I think that he is very mistaken.
    But given that Russia and its opposing countries are headed by more or less reasonable politicians, we can hope that things will not come to the third world war, and everything will end with peace agreements.
  25. +2
    April 11 2018 12: 58
    We do not believe a liar, even if he is telling the truth.
    Cicero Mark Tullius.
  26. +1
    April 11 2018 19: 24
    In fact, a general catastrophe is coming, Trump - Red cattle, not a political scientist, Lucky businessman, Rest in Peace)))
  27. 0
    April 11 2018 19: 36
    The Porter missile destroyer is on a working visit to the port of Cherbourg in northwestern France, that is out of operational reach of Syria

    But nothing that Porter can hit with “axes” simply by entering the raid of Cherbourg wassat Nevermind yourself an analysis.
    1. 0
      April 12 2018 18: 32
      but the porter can crash right where it gets ready.
    2. +1
      April 13 2018 21: 34
      There is such a possibility. But it is necessary to block the vast region for air traffic (and it is intense there).
  28. +1
    April 13 2018 17: 59
    Or maybe the answer is "mirror", in American ???? Explode a chlorine balloon on the outskirts of Donetsk (in a deserted place) (so that traces remain). Bondarchuk let him make a video about the alleged chemical attack from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, put it in the social. network. And on this basis, Poroshenko was loudly declared to be animals that enjoy the destruction of people by gases. And on the basis of all this, to plunder 22 objects, including the Verkhovna Rada, the Presidential Administration of Ukraine and something else on the territory of Ukraine. And what a completely civilized approach. All in the spirit of Western "democratic" values ​​!!
    1. 0
      April 13 2018 21: 23
      Yes, it's time. We have so many creative guys stagnant. But it’s better to make Zvyagintsev do it. He understands the western audience better)
    2. +1
      April 13 2018 21: 35
      The fact that a blow to our allies must be answered by similar blows to their litter has long been advocated)
  29. 0
    April 13 2018 20: 04
    Previously, everyone knew about football. And now they think strategically. PROGRESS!!!
  30. 0
    April 13 2018 20: 53
    There has never been a single case where the United States gathered forces anywhere and did not use them.
    1. +1
      April 13 2018 21: 38
      The blow will be more likely as the AUG will fit (although S. Korea seems to have passed). The only question is the scale and purpose ... Something symbolic like last year or a fatal blow to the infrastructure of the Syrian armed forces.
    2. 0
      April 13 2018 23: 21
      North Korea does not count?

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