Military Review

Kudrinsk experts: There was no competition in the 2018 election

57
The Kudrinsky Committee of Civil Initiatives (OIG) presented its “results” of the 2018 presidential race of the year in Russia. The results also relate to the so-called coefficient of competition during the election campaign. The report was prepared by the OIG experts Alexander Kynev, Arkady Lyubarev and Andrey Maximov. These experts recognized the fact of a high turnout in the past elections, while declaring that 2018 elections were the most "uncompetitive" in all recent years.


Of material:
For the first time, the winner received more than half of the list of voters (51,8%). However, such consolidation is accompanied by a decrease in the competition of candidates in elections, which is fixed by the Laakso-Taagepery index, including the one that is provided with errors in the election campaigns of the main opposition candidates.


Kudrinsk experts: There was no competition in the 2018 election


What is the index?

It shows not a specific number of election participants, but an abstract indicator of the “efficiency of candidates' competitiveness”. To simplify, we can give an example: if two people participate in the elections, one of them has a rating indicator higher than 80%, then the OIG mentioned index will be close to one. That is, the index says that if there are two candidates, one actually participates in the elections (plus or minus the stat-probability for the other).

Mathematical technology for calculating the index is described in terms of “sum of squares and double rows”, including rating points. As a result, the OIG calculated that the March 18 election competition index was 1,62, which is the lowest result for history presidential election in Russia. For example, in 2008, the indicator was 1,82, and in 2004 - 1,74.

All of these indexes used actually look like ordinary noise. Moreover, it is not entirely clear what is the purpose of presenting the above data by the OIG experts? It is clear that in this election there was a clear favorite, a couple of more or less solid competitors and several outspoken candidates for nothing. That is why the Russians and without calculating the "smart" coefficients represented the level of competition. Or is there real competition in “true democracy” countries?
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  1. Lord of the Sith
    Lord of the Sith April 9 2018 14: 48
    +20
    I’ll leave a message like this
    1. Mih1974
      Mih1974 April 9 2018 14: 55
      +4
      laughing laughing I almost read ... with fists and yay ..... laughing repeat
      1. Hire
        Hire April 9 2018 15: 43
        +7
        fixed by the Laaxo-Taagepera index

        Otherwise, it is also called the "Effective Number of Parties." Recognized in the conventional and easiest way. measuring the number of political parties in politics. What does the competition have to do with it? And as for the parties ..., we already know that we do not have them. laughing But we have the Army and Navy, the military-industrial complex, a developing economy and a country!
        1. hrych
          hrych April 9 2018 19: 40
          +2
          Quote: Hire
          "The effective number of parties."

    2. Finches
      Finches April 9 2018 14: 57
      +24
      I looked at the general photo - GDP and, perhaps, Zhirinovsky, like a mastodon - but the rest, just a fierce p .... Therefore, the elections, in fact, showed the political maturity of the Russian people - if all sorts of the Communist Party and others do not find a normal dude, above them the whole world will also make fun!
      There is a problem here - GDP is not eternal, and not one of the competitors is even close in its moral and business qualities and actions, charisma for the role of the President of the Great State! I feel that in 6 years Russia will enter the next Time of Troubles ... That’s bad!
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 April 9 2018 15: 05
        +6
        Theoretically, we choose a program, a path for further development ??? But this is only theoretically, in fact we still have the most important thing to see who he will be the national LEADER !!!
        It happens. Why the choice is bad, not with the ones who are now clever, in such a difficult time to fight off enemies!
        The choice is from the head, this one ... the choice from the heart, now it already exists!
        1. krops777
          krops777 April 9 2018 15: 20
          +6
          Kudrinsk experts: There was no competition in the 2018 election


          The truth is that Putin’s competitors are clearly not up to him without any odds.
          1. Tatyana
            Tatyana April 9 2018 16: 10
            +2
            Kudrinsk experts: There was no competition in the 2018 election

            This calculation of some pseudoscientific "political scientists" with a DOUBLE bottom!

            Kudrinsky crook no faith at all! Especially with their supposedly mathematical calculations, but in fact with a metaphysical pro-Western fooling people manipulative demagogy, covered for authority by mathematical "cleverness" with sophisticated initial messages!
            REFERENCE
            1. Aleksandr Vladimir Kynev (January 31 1975, Tract, in the Knyazhpogost district of the Komi Republic, USSR) - Russian political scientist, Specialist in the field of regional political processes in Russia and the CIS countries, studies of party and electoral systems. PhD in Political Science, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, Higher School of Economics.
            2. Lyubarev Arkady Efimovich. Born in the 1958 year, graduated in the 1981 year from the Moscow Institute of Fine Chemical Technology. M.V. Lomonosov. Candidate of Biological Sciences (1993). He worked in scientific institutions, was engaged in research in the field of biochemistry, biophysics and theoretical biology. The author of more than 40 scientific publications in the field of biology and several popular science articles.
            3. Andrei Markovich Maksimov (born 25 on April 1959) is a Russian journalist, writer, playwright, radio and television host, screenwriter, and theater director. Columnist at Rossiyskaya Gazeta, editor-in-chief of the All-Russian State Television and Radio Company (VGTRK), head of the Journalism Department at the Ostankino Moscow Institute of Television and Radio Broadcasting. The son of the poet Mark Maximov. In absentia he graduated from the Faculty of Journalism of Moscow State University.

            Well, and who of them is a mathematician and philosopher in order to make such mathematical calculations in sociology, even from the standpoint of the dialectical materialistic method?

            A certain company has gathered and makes public relations advertising for supposedly scientifically wealthy political scientists, without using the most advanced dialectical materialistic method in philosophy in sociology. They sit sophistically on a limited metaphysical method and want people to believe them.

            Their metaphysical nonsense does not deserve attention, because it is sophisticated, far-fetched, not reliable - and therefore can not serve as a guide to action.
            1. hrych
              hrych April 9 2018 19: 43
              +4
              Quote: Tatiana
              Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, Higher School of Economics.

      2. Eragon
        Eragon April 9 2018 15: 34
        +2
        There is a problem here - GDP is not eternal, and not one of the competitors is even close in its moral and business qualities and actions, charisma for the role of the President of the Great State!

        Do not worry. Nobody knew anything about GDP in 1998. The time will come and the same system that Putin put forward at one time will put forward a successor.
        1. Finches
          Finches April 9 2018 15: 36
          +11
          I, as a person who survived the Gorbachev region with its Perestroika, the collapse of the Country, the Yeltsiniad of the 90s, cannot help but worry about the future ... hi
          1. jjj
            jjj April 9 2018 20: 45
            +1
            And I still remember how Nikita Sergeyevich was pulled out of the "Native speech" page
        2. t-4
          t-4 April 9 2018 21: 32
          +1
          Quote: Eragon
          The time will come and the same system that Putin put forward at one time will put forward a successor.

          No, there is no democracy in our country. One-man management. Like in the barracks. The political field has been completely cleared. Why wonder that GDP does not have worthy competitors. Here either you are a member of the leading and directing - EP with a portrait of the President behind the chair, or sympathizing (Communist Party, LDPR, SR), then you have at your disposal all the administrative resources and a bright future ahead.
          Or are you against GDP. Then all roads are closed to you.
          You must understand that all influential people are very intelligent. And there are no people who want to write against the wind. Voluntarily, no one will go against opponents of GDP. Therefore, the nominated clowns, and not really sensible smart people, also compete in the elections.
          This is our political system.
          Constitutional monarchy in fact.
      3. Esoteric
        Esoteric April 9 2018 18: 43
        +3
        Quote: Finches
        I feel that in 6 years Russia will enter the next Time of Troubles ... That’s bad!

        That's how he turns ... belay Is this just a hunch or just a sphincter mantle? It’s interesting to know who it is, such a little buttery and bald man, literate and philanthropic, who led a hand-picked country to such a collapse? There is no future for a country with such a leadership. No! And Putin is not the point. When did you yourself come into the world? Rejoice at this opportunity, rejoice that you didn’t end up in the orphanage after being taken from your parents. Be proud that you received an education, and did not disappear in the pursuit of "selfies." That your peers didn’t score you, drug addicts didn’t put you on the needle. Rub your hands that have mastered the labor profession, and not the responsibilities of the manager and security guard. Rejoice that you are not among the 22, but assigned to the 000! fellow
        I see how those who have gained experience over 18 years of rule by various authorities "skillfully and fleetly" cast off one problem after another. And then it will not be better. How many more billions should our state spend on saving banks, oligarch business, supporting American debts, replenishing the thin Ukrainian budget ??? Have we been appointed for all times "* screams of remission"?
        But Putin’s breakthrough is disgusting to me, just as Khrushchev’s incompetent democracy was disgusting, like Brezhnev’s late senile stagnation, Gorbachev’s deceitful populism and Yeltsin’s drunken stupor. Well, I don’t like that kind of movement backwards. What were you moving to? Where have you come from? Where are these immature fruits of the May plantings?
        Terpily. The most common terpils. Wordless, stubborn in faith in the master ... The gentleman is good, and slaves are thieves ... laughing
        But didn’t the people have got such useless good and good servants of the sovereigns? He does not want to be fruitful, he can’t work for nothing, he can’t save, he hasn’t learned how to save. He knows only one thing correctly - he has become longer and sucks pension savings with terrible force ... belay
        1. Finches
          Finches April 9 2018 20: 27
          +1
          Lives badly? laughingDo not cry, everything will be fine with you! hi
      4. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky April 9 2018 20: 43
        +2
        Quote: Finches
        I feel that in 6 years Russia will enter the next Time of Troubles ... That’s bad!
        Ugh on you (just kidding). Enough with us and two vague Borisov (Godunov and Yeltsin).
        Quote: Finches
        There is a problem here - GDP is not eternal, and not one of the competitors is even close in its moral and business qualities and actions, charisma for the role of the President of the Great State!

        And therefore, that person who will be prepared for 6 years to take over power will go to the post of prime minister. In May, we will find out who - "Az Yesm" and "Namerek".
    3. Vend
      Vend April 10 2018 10: 53
      0
      And who is stopping presidential candidates from starting nomination work before the election? No one. Create a positive image in real life. Who prevented Yavlinsky or Zhirinovsky from doing all that time for something good for Russia and Russian citizens? No one.
  2. ul_vitalii
    ul_vitalii April 9 2018 14: 52
    +10
    Again bourgeois little things dryuchki, do not calm down, they want to make black out of white.
    Donkeys and rams have not yet been counted.
    1. reservist
      reservist April 9 2018 14: 56
      +6
      Quote: ul_vitalii
      Donkeys and rams have not yet been counted.

      what for ? there is a "classic" way of counting ...
    2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Ascetic
    Ascetic April 9 2018 15: 01
    +8
    If we talk about Kudrin, I would put the bookmakers on the fact that he will be the new Prime Minister, and Brazil is the World Cup in football.
    1. astronom1973n
      astronom1973n April 9 2018 15: 13
      +5
      Quote: Ascetic
      If we talk about Kudrin, I would put the bookmakers on the fact that he will be the new Prime Minister

      Chur chura, but not this !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!
      !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    2. vovanpain
      vovanpain April 9 2018 15: 20
      +7
      Quote: Ascetic
      If we talk about Kudrin, I would put the bookmakers on the fact that he will be the new Prime Minister, and Brazil is the World Cup in football.

      Stanislas hi Kinky will become Prime Minister when Brazil is the world hockey chepion. yes hi
      1. Ascetic
        Ascetic April 9 2018 15: 32
        +7
        Quote: vovanpain
        Kinky will become Prime Minister when Brazil is the world hockey chepion.

        Wait and see ... Make bids, gentlemen, your candidacy?
        If not Kudrin, then perhaps Sakhipzadovna will sit down, Putin will not go now against the Zionist lobby. I will be glad if I am mistaken, even ready to lose money. If it does, then the main candidate is Anton Vaino.
        If our team became the world champion in beach soccer, then why not Brazil
        on beach hockey? laughing
        1. vovanpain
          vovanpain April 9 2018 15: 48
          +2
          Quote: Ascetic
          Wait and see ... Make bids, gentlemen, your candidacy?

          That's exactly Stanislav wait and see. yes What Putin has in mind, Putin himself does not know, maybe Kudryavy and Sakhipopovna, otherwise, to everyone's surprise, Dimon, or maybe no one at all, will pop out of the casket, no, this is a hopeless case, fortunetelling on coffee grounds. hi
          1. Tusv
            Tusv April 9 2018 21: 08
            +1
            Quote: vovanpain
            or maybe an unknown person will jump out of the casket, no, this is a hopeless case, fortune-telling on coffee grounds.

            Why in the thick. What tells me about me, if Maria Zakharova participated in the elections instead of GDP, she also won an easy victory in the first round. After 6 years, only 48 will hit what
        2. XXXIII
          XXXIII April 9 2018 16: 06
          +2
          Quote: Ascetic
          Wait and see ... Make bids, gentlemen, your candidacy?

          Shoigu Prime, the rest will not change much ..... hi
          Defense + economy + economy will turn out very much ...
          1. jjj
            jjj April 9 2018 20: 48
            +2
            Quote: XXXIII
            Shoigu Prime,

            The defense economy is established, it can be taken as a national one. But on defense - a fighting man who has a taste of victory and knows how to achieve this victory
  4. Ingvar0401
    Ingvar0401 April 9 2018 15: 04
    +1
    Laaxo-Taagepera
    Finnish ears stick out judging by the names ...
  5. Azazelo
    Azazelo April 9 2018 15: 05
    +3
    Of course it was not. Who is there to choose, something other than Putin. But this is not a problem of elections, but a problem of trust in all these deputies. Since nifiga has not been typed => no fucking thing to do in power.
    1. tchoni
      tchoni April 9 2018 15: 27
      +5
      Quote: Azazelo
      Of course it wasn’t. Who is there to choose but Putin.

      The candidate is against all. Removed from. After he almost won once ...
      1. andrej-shironov
        andrej-shironov April 9 2018 15: 57
        +2
        Eugene, you are in vain trying to explain something to the local urapatriots! The training manual is different.
        1. tchoni
          tchoni April 9 2018 17: 39
          +1
          Quote: andrej-shironov
          Eugene, you are in vain trying to explain something to the local urapatriots! The training manual is different.

          But I don’t want to explain anything to them, and I won’t. Salary of 200 bucks (or maybe less) will do everything for me ...
      2. Baloo
        Baloo April 9 2018 20: 01
        +1
        Quote: tchoni
        The candidate is against all. Removed from. After he almost won once ...

        Why was absent? These are just those who did not participate in the elections, to whom everything is purple.
  6. Grim Reaper
    Grim Reaper April 9 2018 15: 12
    +3
    Yes, there was no alternative. Yes, I voted against. Yes, I knew very well that my voice would not solve anything. But maybe those in power will at least think a bit, seeing the number of voters like me.
    1. rocket757
      rocket757 April 9 2018 15: 28
      +5
      There are still many such non-decisive votes. They didn’t decide anything, it’s clear, too. He will hammer the power on those who are against, the identity is very likely.
      Anyway, we are, and if you can finally do nothing, there will be more.
    2. ML-334
      ML-334 April 9 2018 15: 34
      +4
      For a horse or what? She has a slogan against everyone. I chose Russia, that is, Putin.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 April 9 2018 16: 14
        +3
        In principle, it doesn’t matter, since there are no graphs against everyone, but there are preferences .... Sobchak doesn’t fall into mine.
      2. Grim Reaper
        Grim Reaper April 9 2018 18: 43
        +2
        Quote: ML-334
        For a horse or what? She has a slogan against everyone. I chose Russia, that is, Putin.

        No, not for Sobchak. Although I am old, I have not survived from the mind. winked
  7. Sverdlov
    Sverdlov April 9 2018 15: 31
    0
    ANASRAT ...
    Nothing's gonna change ...
  8. Sverdlov
    Sverdlov April 9 2018 15: 35
    0
    Quote: Finches
    I looked at the general photo - GDP and, perhaps, Zhirinovsky, like a mastodon - but the rest, just a fierce p .... Therefore, the elections, in fact, showed the political maturity of the Russian people - if all sorts of the Communist Party and others do not find a normal dude, above them the whole world will also make fun!
    There is a problem here - GDP is not eternal, and not one of the competitors is even close in its moral and business qualities and actions, charisma for the role of the President of the Great State! I feel that in 6 years Russia will enter the next Time of Troubles ... That’s bad!

    Time of Troubles will be ....
  9. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov April 9 2018 15: 52
    +1
    From the side, this opposition game, when some oligarch-liberals criticize the same oligarch-liberals in power, looks ridiculous. laughing At first, of course, you might think that this is the usual envy of those who are at the trough, and then you understand that this is just a fiction.
  10. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
    Andrei from Chelyabinsk April 9 2018 16: 03
    0
    Or in the countries of “true democracy” is real competition high?

    See the percentage of voters for Hillary and Trump. Very close
  11. Archivist Vasya
    Archivist Vasya April 9 2018 16: 06
    +1
    Everything was known beforehand, yes, for the first time or what? laughing
  12. midshipman
    midshipman April 9 2018 16: 23
    +1
    Many candidates have already shown themselves in life: the collective farmer has already destroyed the country; those who once offered 400 days to boost the economy destroyed everything; to whom can I entrust a nuclear suitcase from this list ?; etc.
  13. Dormidont
    Dormidont April 9 2018 16: 35
    0
    But kudrensky iskperdy will not whistle
  14. 1536
    1536 April 9 2018 16: 47
    0
    It was not for this that the GDP was chosen with 77 percent, so that he would put on the post of chairman of the Council of Ministers a man whom he even kicked out of the government for "liberalism" (or for "Bolshevism" - anyone like that). Now has he hired "experts" and stirs up water? Everyone knows that the goal of some leaders of the "opposition" is the same - to "break Russia down the Urals ridge." The competition they have in this "business" is indeed great.
    In this regard, not as an expert, but as an ordinary person, except for S.K. Shoigu to the post of prime minister, I do not see other candidates.
    1. Esoteric
      Esoteric April 9 2018 19: 03
      +3
      Quote: 1536
      In this regard, not as an expert, but as an ordinary person, except for S.K. Shoigu to the post of prime minister, I do not see other candidates.

      Have you seen how they raised the country's national economy after the war? And they did not look for people, and there were plenty of leaders. The experience was. Who of the ministers now has any work experience? How can one be a minister without plans, based on influx and the laws of the market? Shoigu is a performer. Perhaps more conscientious than such as the Millers, Sechin and other Shuvalovs and Ivanovs with the Cyrene. What's the use? You have drawn a model for the development of the economy, when it begins to move forward. First fractions of a percent, then incrementally? So blow the fist in the circle of effective managers who are not proud of the flag and anthem of athletes and officials, concerned diplomats, driven away from the military regulations of the military, pensioners who are joyful in additions and peace, illiterate teenagers with a minimum vocabulary, poor paupers and state employees , surrounded by landfills, rubbish bins, garbage, unfinished buildings, burnt malls and destroyed cities and sat under the eternal sleds and spits of canine sons and daughters.
      1. 1536
        1536 April 9 2018 19: 56
        0
        After the war, I did not see how the national economy was being raised. I was not born then. But I do not think that even then they were born immediately by the chief ministers, and their mother, I'm sorry, they said which boobs to substitute for feeding. You have a biased view of the country, people, life. Apparently, it cannot be changed. And there’s nothing to argue about.
  15. The Siberian barber
    The Siberian barber April 9 2018 16: 59
    +1
    Who would tell me, a year ago, that among these lovely faces there will be the face of the daughter of the “Father of Russian democracy” !!! In principle, its presence vividly characterizes the "Political competition" in our country
  16. Vard
    Vard April 9 2018 18: 15
    0
    No one forbade them ... and they, as always, with a bare heel on a saber ...
  17. Kisso4kin
    Kisso4kin April 9 2018 19: 07
    0
  18. Baloo
    Baloo April 9 2018 19: 59
    +1
    It is clear that in these elections there was a clear favorite, a couple of more or less solid competitors and several frank dummy candidates. And therefore, the Russians, without calculating the “smart” coefficients, represented the level of competition. Or in the countries of “true democracy” is real competition high?


    And who would these experts themselves vote for? For Madame from home-2? belay
  19. Hiw
    Hiw April 9 2018 20: 08
    +2
    I’m just amazed at the reviews of GDP in this topic, the leader understands that the economy is stable, you can say that God’s dew .... But nothing in the country has a salary of less than $ 500 on average, I have a friend, technologist, 2 higher education, salary 20 TR and so on throughout the country, and it’s nothing that education and medetsin are paid, nothing that private companies have got all the oil and gas and 30% of the profits are paid to the budget, nothing that pensioners are poor, nothing that is left in natural food stores, but nothing that more than a million hectares were leased to the Chinese for 50 years, but doesn’t it mean that all arms concerns in Russia are private and the profits go into private hands? but it’s nothing that the Platon tax is not paid to the state but to a private company - YOU ARE BLINDED WHAT DOES ??? What is such stability ??? what prosperity is that what you have for pink glasses are those that can not be removed. recently, impoverished novia, having nationalized oil revenues, raised its average salary to $ 5500; a pension of up to $ 1600; and here we are - well, Putin can’t see for everything, but why the heck is he needed if you don’t look at everything ???
  20. bone1
    bone1 April 9 2018 20: 32
    0
    We even calculated the coefficient of competition in the elections, and what to do with it? where to shove? What kind of competition could Sobchak have, which only ennobled erectrorate?
  21. Berkut24
    Berkut24 April 9 2018 20: 48
    0
    And why would the expert himself with his odds not compete in the elections for his former boss? Or doesn’t want to look like a fool against his background, like other under-candidates?
  22. friend of animals
    friend of animals April 9 2018 22: 03
    0
    Kvass leaked from the monitor due to such comments.
  23. MY THOUGHT
    MY THOUGHT April 9 2018 22: 09
    0
    What was it ???