Already in May, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will reformat the punitive operation in the Donbas into an “operation of the combined forces” with all the ensuing consequences
The last four years have been very difficult and tense both for Russian politicians and for us. And it’s not yet necessary to expect any enlightenment, stabilization or at least temporary normalization in relations with our unstable neighbors and their Western curators on key geopolitical issues. By signing the list of points of the “Minsk Agreements”, as well as taking the most fair side in the framework of the “Norman format”, official Moscow gave the current illegitimate regime “Square” a unique chance to demonstrate its ability to negotiate and begin some kind of peace negotiations. settlement of the situation in the Donbas theater of operations. Additional guarantors that have all the diplomatic and economic levers of influence on Poroshenko and his entourage are France and Germany. But their participation in the hastily grounded four-sided diplomatic group did not lead to anything stable and long-term, since both Paris and Berlin are notorious heralds of Washington's ideas and postulates. Such a conclusion can be drawn against the background of a common position with the United States and the United Kingdom on the case of poisoning in Salisbury, as well as on other clearly marked signs.
A clear strategy of the West to undermine Russia's defense capability in the western strategic direction and an attempt to weaken it economically have today become absolutely integral and unshakable points of any decisions made in the parliaments and defense structures of NATO member states regarding Moscow. In view of this, today we are witnessing the predominance in the Ukrainian General Staff, as well as at the top of Poroshenko, of the ideas of conducting a punitive operation against the republics in the near future. This entire pre-escalation epic does not end with ideas alone. Over the last quarter, the Ukrainian side, both at the legislative and military-technical levels, has taken all measures to implement offensive actions in several operational directions at once. First, it was the adoption of the sensational bill No. 7163 "On the reintegration of Donbass" on January 18, 2018, which provides for a military operation against the young republics bypassing the "Minsk-2" that has lost its practical significance, then an active transfer to Mariupol and Volnovakha (to Telmanovsky ON) additional tank the mouth of the T-64BV and the Buk-M1 air defense missile systems divisions, as well as the 57th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in full force, as reported to News Front by public figure and publicist Alexey Zhuravko, receiving information from eyewitnesses from the Kherson region.
Parallel to this, the American strategic UAV of optical-electronic and radar reconnaissance RQ-4B weekly (and sometimes more often) carries out many hours of reconnaissance flights in the airspace near the contact line in Donbass, providing the General Staff of the Armed Forces with a fresh (regularly updated) tactical picture of the deployment of armored units of the NM military corps LDNR for tactically correct regrouping in all operational directions without exception. The culmination of all this was the provision of gratuitous military aid in the form of 35 transport-launching "tubes" and 210 of anti-tank missiles FGM-148 "Javelin" to Ukrainian army units capable of seriously changing the balance of forces in the Donbass theater, as well as the commencement of the development of a war criminal by lieutenant general Sergey Naev of the so-called “United Forces” operation, finally introducing aggression against the republics into the legal mainstream (of course, in relation to Ukrainian legislation).
A separate and very alarming bell in the continuing Russophobic actions of Kiev is the slow but sure "overflow" of permissiveness of the Ukrainian security forces from the Donbass region to the border areas of the Republic of Crimea, the waters of the Sea of Azov, as well as Russia as a whole. But while in relation to Russia as a whole, the Ukrainian side is only limited to delusional threats “to continue the war even after the seizure of Donbass”, as Yuri Grymchak, a member of the Batkivshchyna party, recently said, not quite adequately, in the Russian-Ukrainian border between the Republic of Crimea and the Kherson region, as well as in the Azov Sea, the actions of Kiev have long crossed all the boundaries of what is permitted. It all started with an attack by a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group numbering 20 people at the Armyansk checkpoint 7 in August 2016, with the goal of breaking through to the territory of Crimea and carrying out terrorist attacks on several strategically important objects. As a result, officers of the border service of the Federal Security Service of Russia and a unit of the 247 airborne assault regiment arrived from the Stavropol Territory took the brunt.
In a clash with the enemy, FSB lieutenant colonel Roman Kamenev and BMD mechanic commander Corporal Semyon Sychev were killed. Most of all, the fact that according to information from the well-known Crimean blogger Boris Rozhin ("colonelcassad"), the retreat of the surviving Ukrainian militants was carried out under the cover of armored personnel carriers, located in the vicinity of the villages of Stavka and Chervony Chaban; and, unfortunately, the latter was not provided with fire resistance from the anti-tank calculations of the Russian army, or the army aviation. In the course of repelling the attack, 3 militants were destroyed, but the “soft” response in the form of the usual transfer of additional units of the Russian army to Armyansk pushed the junta to new attacks against Russian citizens.
The next incident did not take long to wait: November 20 2016, at the Dzhankoy automobile checkpoint, SBU officers abducted junior contract sergeant Alexander Baranov and warrant officer Maxim Odintsov. The guys who refused to support the Nazi regime of Ukraine and went over to the Russian Armed Forces, attributed to treason with preventive measures in the form of 13 and 14 years in prison. It is possible that our soldiers will be released as a result of the upcoming exchange of prisoners. But nothing is known yet, since originally A. Baranov and M. Odintsov were supposed to go home during the exchange for Ukrainian political prisoners Oleg Sentsov and Roman Sushchenko, but at the suggestion of Kiev this question has been slipping for several months.
Kiev became much more provocative and brazen in the spring of 2018, after receiving from Washington a pretext for conducting a punitive operation in the Donbas and guarantees of comprehensive diplomatic and military-technical support during the upcoming escalation. This time, the aim of Kiev was the water area of the Azov Sea, where 25 in March 2018 was detained by the Russian seiner “Nord” by Ukrainian border guards. The crew of a fishing vessel escorted to the port of Berdyansk is already 11 days on board without permission to go ashore. The attempt to get off the dock was accompanied by tough opposition from the Ukrainian border military formations, while at the seiner “critical sanitary conditions” were established associated with the natural damage of the catch. Passports were taken from the 10 crew and Ukrainian citizenship was offered, but the fishermen refused. According to Alexander Rudenko, the lawyer of the captain of the “Nord” Vladimir Gorbenko, the latter is again transferred from the hospital to a temporary detention center, and this is despite the fact that Vladimir needs outpatient treatment. As previously reported, the captain of the seiner complained about the humiliation and humiliation of the SBUshnikov and the Ukrainian border formations. Now V. Gorbenko is charged with art. 332-1, providing for up to 5 years in prison. Yesterday, 15: 00 received updated information that the Kherson City Court postponed the hearing on the case of Captain Nord to April 6.
Remarkably, the entire crew, in addition to the captain, the Ukrainian side promised to return home to Kerch in the near future, as stated by the so-called head of the department for the supervision of criminal proceedings of the ARC I. Ponochovny. Obviously, the creation of the Operational Group to counteract piracy on the part of Ukraine noticeably sobered up the thinking process of the Ukrainian leadership and the maritime security of the State Border Service “Independent”, because from April 5, on the basis of the ACTU (Azov-Black Sea Territorial Administration), the operational group coordinating the actions of the Fishery Agency border controls. In other words, the border guards will be able in the present tense (using GLONASS) to track the location of any fishing vessel in the waters of the Black and Azov seas. In any emergency situation, speedboat patrol boats and Black Sea Fleet aviation can help fishermen. As for Captain Vladimir Gorbenko, the picture here is completely different than the rest of the “Nord” crew. One gets the impression that the current Ukrainian regime will try to delay it for the longest possible period to maintain the degree of diplomatic war with Moscow, as well as to use it as a “bargaining chip” at future diplomatic trading with the Russian side. Such a conclusion is made on the basis of the following information received on the evening of April 5.
In particular, the postponement of the hearing on the election of a preventive measure by V. Gorbenko to 6 on April was due to the fact that the captain was not taken to the courthouse from the temporary detention center. At the same time, there is no information about his whereabouts. It is possible that there is a deliberate delay in the consideration of the Gorbenko case by the Ukrainian special services against the demands of lawyers Alexander Rudenko and Dmitry Shcherbina to release the captain right in the courthouse, as well as against the background of strong diplomatic pressure from the Russian Foreign Ministry. Obviously, in this case, the main role belongs to the criminal pro-government "conglomerate" of the SBU with the division No. XXUMX of the Mariupol Marine Guard, which was ordered to drag out the case. So, the latter have already "lit up" in the abduction of Vladimir Gorbenko under the sights of machine guns directly from the board of the seiner. A very important point is that on 23: 19, 00 of April, the definition of the detention of the captain expires, and therefore the situation should clear up this morning.
One of the patrol / artillery boats of the 1400М “Skadovsk” Ave. of the so-called “Mariupol Marine Guard”, regularly on duty a few kilometers from the left-bank beach of Mariupol
It should be noted that in such difficult situations as the seizure of the “Nord”, associated with the inadequate and aggressive behavior of our dysfunctional neighbor, the reaction of both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and defense structures should be immediate and extremely tough, because the manifestation of compliance and tolerance with 100% likely to entail new "spitting" and "knives in the back." Here and the power version of the release should be considered, because in the degree of arrogance and openness Kiev has long exceeded all limits. Imagine for a moment a scenario in which the Vietnamese Navy detains a Chinese fishing seiner, escorts to Cam Ranh, keeps the captain and crew next to tons of rotting fish in disgusting sanitary conditions and under rifle scopes weapons brought to a hypertensive crisis by interrogation and failure to comply with the instructions of local doctors. Hanoi would have regretted what had been done a hundred times already, since Beijing would hardly have waited for anything. And what is Kiev doing? Threatens with further detentions of Russian ships leaving the Crimean ports. Against this background, the creation of the Operational Group to counter the piracy of Ukraine is the very countermeasure that quickly puts all the “balls and rollers” in the “hot heads” of Poroshenkov's “crazy” into the necessary places. But this applies only to the Crimea and the Azov Sea. There is also the Donbass, where the Russian side will also have to show a “bear grin”.
Just a couple of days ago, the Ukrainian media questioned the holding of the May meeting of the Norman Four in the German Aachen, but in the 3-sided format (without the participation of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin), emphasis was placed on unnamed sources in the Ukrainian leadership. Later, the speaker of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Mariana Betsa could neither confirm nor deny this information. It is only known that Poroshenko, Makron and Merkel will again try to raise the topic of entering the UN peacekeeping force in the Donbass under the terms of Washington and Kiev, i.e. throughout its territory, including the Russian border. Obviously, Vladimir Putin will not be able to incline such an absurd “Croatian model” in Aachen, nor in the UN Security Council meeting room, where his interests and the interests of Russia with Donbas republics will be represented by Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenya. To move in this matter, Kiev has already been tasked with arranging a serious provocation on the contact line followed by the seizure of several large settlements in order to introduce the UN contingent in the rear zones of the army LDNR people's militia corps.
As assumed in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO, the created offensive bridgeheads will not turn into new “boilers” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine thanks to the operational deployment of peacekeepers, but will become starting points for a further “creeping offensive”, where Ukrainian forces are planning to impose an initiative one and a half to two times more large-caliber barreled and reactive artillery (9K51 "Grad", 9K57 "Hurricane", 2С3 "Acacia", 2А65 "Msta-B", 2А36 "Hyacinths", I am in trouble, I am working on fireworks, I am working on fireworks, I am working on firewalls, I’m working on fires, I’m at I-o'cry, I’m at I-o'y; , 2-7-x numerical superiority, as well as information and military support from NATO. But to implement such a scenario in practice, "the descendants of the ancient Sumerians" and their NATO partners are unlikely to allow.
Recently, Igor Ivanovich Strelkov (Girkin) managed to distinguish himself with a regular portion of panicking, reflecting on the possibility of returning to Novorossia and even obtaining DNR citizenship before the election process. According to one of his proposed options, at the end of the second day of the general offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, “Donetsk will be completely cut off from communications with Russia; Lugansk, perhaps - the same. " On the basis of what such conclusions are made, it is completely unclear. First, the general offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could only dream of the 2016 year, when the indicators of combat-ready combat equipment in NM LDNR buildings were brought to more than 70 - 80%. Secondly, as we have already emphasized a hundred times in our previous reviews, even the "fresh" brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not go forward to the attack on the Donetsk-Makeevka or Gorlovsko-Enakievsky agglomerations, especially against the background of complete demoralization, alcoholism and drug addiction on the contact line. What is equally important, today's conscription company in Ukraine is extremely sluggish, with the complete unwillingness of a more or less sensible percentage of the population to get into the hands of the agenda. Moreover, in the last 2,5 of the year, both Donetsk and Gorlovka have been turned into the most powerful fortified areas with countless anti-tank weapons, as well as radio and artillery reconnaissance assets of the firing positions of the Ukrainian army.
All that Ukrainian military formations can count on, despite threefold numerical superiority, are offensive shots at Debaltsevskiy and Telmanov ON, where today 54, 57 and 93-I are separate mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is where the most vulnerable sectors in the defense of LDNR armies continue to be. But it would be extremely naive to believe that against the background of the inevitable conflict within the Russia-NATO framework, Moscow will allow wolves in sheep's clothing represented by a hastily put together United Nations gang to approach the border of the Rostov region by a kilometer. After all, Strelkov himself in his short note for 28 March between the lines hinted at the new, very tangible gusts of the "Northern wind" in Russian politics, describing the unshakable firmness of Sergey Markov's opinion on the issues of the conflict in Donbas.Read more...