Military Review

Belarus and Kazakhstan: Ukrainian lessons

70
Belarus and Kazakhstan: Ukrainian lessons



There are clear indications that some new aspects of the Kazakh military doctrine appeared in response to completely different threats. Unlike the 2011 doctrine of the year, Kazakh military strategists are now preoccupied with the possibility of applying “hybrid methods”. Also mentioned is the threat of “encouraging and escalating armed conflict on the borders of the Republic of Kazakhstan”.

The new Kazakh military doctrine is clearly connected with Ukraine. It is very similar to the doctrine of Belarus adopted in 2016, but Minsk more openly pointed out the lessons learned from the events in Ukraine, ”said Deirdre Tynan, director of the Central Asia project in the International Crisis Group organization.


Interesting. Informative. Freshly. But the author just lives in Russia itself, and it is infinitely interesting, as it were, what kind of “lessons” the Kazakh / Belarusian politicians managed to extract from the Ukrainian events.

In principle, the “lessons” could have been started much earlier. Our dear Western "partners" are changing / trying to change governments with dismal consistency. Suffice it to recall the “Tulip Revolution” in neighboring Kyrgyzstan. And, oddly enough, Mr. Lukashenko there also “actively participated” (already post factum).

That is, the whole technology of the coup has already been tested many times and repeatedly demonstrated to everyone. But for some reason neither the “revolution of roses” in Georgia, nor the “revolution of tulips” in Kyrgyzstan, nor any “change of military doctrine” in the Republic of Belarus / RK did not cause. And why? That is, it should be understood that in Russia after the Georgian events of 2003 and the Ukrainian events of 2004, the danger of a violent change of power during the “popular unrest” inspired from abroad was recognized as a priority.



The “active struggle” against this threat began. And really, what's the use of having combat-ready armed forces, if the power in the capital changes without prior arrangement? If all of the above categorically did not concern Kazakhstan and Belarus, then some other understanding of the situation would have been present. But, as we well know, the organization of mass riots took place both there and there.

And these very “disorders” were organized quite to themselves without any participation from Russia. I hope no one will argue with that? No, you can, of course, push the version that the “cookies Nuland” in the entire post-Soviet space was distributed by the “hand of the Kremlin”, but somehow it is too “conspiratorial”, don't you find? This is what the trouble is: both in Kazakhstan and in Belarus there is almost no honest assessment of events. first phases of conflict in Ukraine. That is the Maidan-2 in Kiev, actively supported from abroad.

People do not understand something? Are they afraid of something? They basically do not want to quarrel with the West, who arranged the same coup? But then what could be that “new military doctrine”?

In a strange way, neither in Georgia (where the coup of 2003 brought terrible consequences), neither in Kyrgyzstan, nor in Ukraine (where two coups took place) no one claims to the West. Do people take such a rude intervention from an "enlightened Europe" for granted? Then what, I'm sorry, is their sovereignty, which we have been told about for so long?

That is, that “sovereignty”, it seems to be a double bottom: with respect to Russia, it seems to be there, but with respect to the West, it doesn’t seem to have it ... And only on the third day the keen Eye noted that the prison cell was not enough the fourth wall ... It is incomprehensible to me, how can one argue about some kind of “threats to sovereignty and security”, without actually having so much sovereignty? That is, the fact that in Ukraine the Americans felt more and more at home (long before Maidan-2), for some reason, is diligently ignored by all interested parties in both Minsk and Astana.



From a certain moment Russia “finally ceased to respect” that very “Ukrainian sovereignty” simply because it finally turned into a fiction. You know, one gets the bad impression that both Belarusian and Kazakh elites see their “independent future” as if “a little bit” under the American protectorate. Well, how? At the same time, both here and there, interested people with foaming at the mouth are demanding that Russia respect that “sovereignty”.

In Mr Poroshenko, Russia did not like and dislike, first of all, that he is not the president, but is the “chocolate hare of the State Department”. That's the whole problem. For Moscow, it would be strange to conduct "equal negotiations" with the sixes of the West. And de facto, and Grybauskaite, and Poroshenko are precisely in this category. That is, the question of some kind of "sovereignty" of different Georgian and Estonian countries and the "honesty" of "righteous" all sorts and its respect from Russia should be reformulated as follows: "When will you learn to respect the American sixes and gosdepovsikh sang along?" Probably never.

The problem lies precisely in this: the Georgians did not really need a war with Russia, but the Americans didn’t really. And the decision was made just by the Americans. Georgia in 2008 was not in the full sense of the word "sovereign state". And, by the way, for some reason, the war in Georgia, despite the obvious parallels with the Ukrainian conflict (the first stage is a coup, the second stage is a conflict with Russia at the suggestion of the West), did not become an occasion to adopt a series of new military doctrines in the post-Soviet countries.



But even then, in 2008, the Russian Tanks we stopped very close to Tbilisi (which, as it were, hints!), but no one in Minsk or Astana rushed to write new military doctrines, oddly enough.

But after the events of 2014 ... Russia actively, including with the use of the Armed Forces, began to protect its own interests. And, actually, what is unusual in this? Normal steps for a sovereign state. The trouble is that due to the serious pro-Western orientation of the elites in both Belarus and Kazakhstan, stand up and say clearly about the inadmissibility of coups gunpowder neither here nor there is not enough.

All this very much resembles the “discussions” of European politicians on rocket / antimissile issues: they are strictly forbidden to discuss and condemn the plans of Americans, therefore they actively discuss and condemn the “threats” coming from the Russian rocket weapons. That is, the plans and actions of the Americans to place something “winged / ballistic” there are in the “silence zone”, and as a result the discussion becomes frankly degenerative: why are you placing Iskander threatening Europe?

Some reasonable discussion makes sense in a parallel discussion of the activities of the Russian Federation and the United States, but then it becomes immediately clear that with their rocket plans the United States is very good at substituting Europe ... therefore, the “silence figure”.

In the case of “color revolutions” in the post-Soviet space, the situation is similar: criticizing the United States today is somehow not very accepted, so it is pretended that everything happened “by itself”. The actions of the Russian Federation in the Crimea and in the Donbas can be assessed very differently, but they were the answer, the answer to quite the US / EU interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine. That is, as with a missile defense system in Europe / Russian response to it, the situation should be considered as a whole, only this way you can understand something.

Imagine two wrestlers on the carpet: so we will carefully cut one out of the record, well, we will begin to discuss the actions of the second ... Something like this, the discussions are held “on Ukraine” in Belarus and Kazakhstan. That is, bold attacks on the “Russian aggression” in the Crimea would have been even more courageous if the same people so openly condemned the coup in Kiev and the snipers on the Maidan.

The honesty and courage of those “commentators” personally reminds me of an “honest and courageous” Zhvanetsky, who did not hesitate to criticize the Soviet government. A kind of "truth-seeker", "a fighter with the regime." But. However, there was a burning of people in Odessa. And how did our “great Odessa comedian” react? He said nothing. And by the way, he is not one of the “Odessans” working on the Russian stage. Somehow no one rushed to speak. They like fear.

So what about honesty and principles: they are good when they are. Many here do not understand this and prefer the “principles” of a pocket character: it’s necessary — it’s got it, it’s not necessary — it is hidden (somewhere in shorts, alongside pride). That is, here and now (in a specially selected place and at a time strictly reserved for this) I will show you how honest and principled I am, but my daily life does not concern you at all.



That is, after the coup and before the “Russian aggression in the Crimea”, we did not hear “honest, bold and tough” assessments of what is happening either from the Belarusian or from the Kazakh leadership. And, strictly speaking, why? What prevented? What prevented the evaluation of a coup in Kiev? Fear? "Uzhos" before the great American democracy? Then why all these “bold” statements about “Russian aggression”? Excuse me, do you want to fool anyone? Russian Foreign Ministry? State Department?

In fact, both the leadership of Kazakhstan and the leadership of Belarus have taken a politically restrained / “ostrich” position in many respects. Say, all that happened - it is "Russian aggression in the Crimea and the Donbas." Hence all the problems. The “discussion” revolves around this “aggression” itself. Aggression, and how to resist it ...

Something like the situation in the global economy as presented by Soviet ideologues. We are telling this, we are not telling it ... the reasoning is customized to “ideologically verified result”. In other words, it’s honest to admit that they cannot fundamentally oppose Ukraine’s relatively independent Ukraine (they don’t fit into the ideological framework of the “Holy West”). Therefore "history the Ukrainian turmoil "begin to tell from the moment of" capture "of the Crimea. And on the basis of such a curtailed and “ideologically verified” history, they begin to build “national security.”

So at one time, Mr. Lukashenko entertained himself by conducting “anti-terrorism exercises” on the border with Russia. All the bullshit of the situation is that the first part of them is thrown out of the “Ukrainian lessons”: the riots (supported and inspired by the West) and the armed coup in its final phase. That is, there is no point for Mr. Lukashenko and his entourage to conduct such “anti-terrorism exercises”: in the second phase of the “Ukrainian scenario” they will no longer be in power. The problem of a hypothetical “Russian aggression” will be solved (with adequate support from the American embassy) by completely different people.

And even not Mr. Makei. Alas for him, alas. Then what's the point? After the gosdepovskogo coup state leadership and the leadership of the security forces is changing almost completely. So it was in Serbia, and in Georgia, and in Ukraine. Why, for example, Belarus or Kazakhstan will be an exception? Where do these illusions come from? Americans bet only and exclusively on "their sons of bitches", but no one else. A striking example is Ukraine, where the same “Lady Ti” would gladly take to serve their interests (and compared to Saakashvili, she is much more Ukrainian politician). But she is not their “bitch daughter,” and that says it all.



That was when the Soviet Union in the West, such a "science" - "kremlevedenie", so today it would make sense to create a science to study Anglo-Saxons. "Anglo-Saxon", and that sounds! Just somehow people actively deal with them, the principles and customs of the Anglo-Saxons themselves are not imagining at all.

In Ukraine, "pro-Russian politicians" as such did not have. There were some widespread myths about them, but the politicians themselves were not. The Party of Regions was never pro-Russian. And yet, after the coup, heads flew. And the removal from the post - it was not the worst: mass arrests began, torture ... murder and "suicide."

"Flights from the upper floors of apartment buildings" began. Here I am talking about the former Ukrainian elite, which lost. And that was not “pro-Russian”.

Here it is customary to argue about ancient eras (especially about those when writing did not exist). But events in Ukraine took place in the Internet era! And yet, for the analysis in the same Belarus / Ukraine / Kazakhstan, the fairy-tale model is actively used, where mass popular performances in Kiev led to the fall of the “pro-Kremlin puppet” gang, and the angry Putin took the Crimea and invaded the Donbass.

Again and again: there were no “pro-Kremlin politicians” in Ukraine of the 2014 model of the year. Politicians were varying degrees of pro-Western, but all is one thing - a coup and a murder.

“The analysis of the lessons of Ukraine” is of a very limited nature and, most importantly, it immediately goes to the “phase two” - “hybrid Russian invasion”. They say this is the main threat. Absolutely incomprehensible the main thing: how so "advanced" Kazakh / Belarusian elites plan to go through the "phase number one". Or they do not consider it a threat? Or plan to "slip"? Or something else? Or someone undertakes to deny that NATO and Western special services officers are openly driving around Ukraine today, and the country is actually under external control?

Such a strange logic: Donbass and Crimea are occupied by Russia, but Ukraine itself is not occupied by anyone. Such a free power and completely independent ... The fundamental difference is precisely in this - in the assessment of the current political situation in Ukraine: from the point of view of Russia, the radicals are in power, nationalists and criminals, and the country is under external control; from the point of view of Minsk / Astana - all is well. The existing regime is quite legitimate and worthy of dialogue. And Russia is pursuing an “aggressive policy” towards Ukraine. Both Lukashenko and Nazarbayev actively offered their “services” in reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine (that is, for them Putin and Poroshenko are quite equal values, such “two captains”).

In fact, the “lessons” that should have been “learned” from the Ukrainian crisis and the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Kazakhstan are quite simple: in the event of any internal crisis, the American embassy (the embassies of the EU countries) and everyone associated with them should be extremely tightly blocked. And generally, following the Russian experience, we must begin to slowly take by the scruff of various “foreign agents” there. Do it in advance. Very advance is the only way to preserve sovereignty.



Was it done after the Ukrainian events in Kazakhstan / Belarus? The answer, it seems to me, is obvious: the risks have arisen, they have been evaluated, but ideological / political narrow-mindedness in principle does not make it possible to adequately respond to the threat. It is contrary to the "Western vector." But something needs to be done? It is necessary! Therefore, these very “games for repelling the Russian hybrid threat” begin. Honestly, to call things by their names in both Minsk and Astana is hampered by the fear of western partners and the fear of one’s own (exclusively pro-Western oriented "opposition").

To a normal person who is outside the ideological “matrix of democracy”, it’s quite difficult to understand: what is the point of preparing for the second stage of the crisis, even if the first is not theoretically overcome? And, most importantly, absolutely incomprehensible as overcome it.

Here in Russia we do not quite understand this problem, but we still have an anti-Western population in the majority. But in the same RB / RK the internal situation is somewhat different ... That is why such paradoxical “lessons” are extracted. If Mr. Yanukovych (with the support of the Ukrainian elites) had successfully figured out Maidan-2, then no Crimea-Donbass would have happened. Successfully overcoming the first stage of the crisis means that the second simply will not.

But the failure in the first stage meant only that the legitimate Yanukovych suddenly lost power and lost the ability to defend the borders of Ukraine. Even if Yanukovich and Co. had 10 plans to defend the state frontiers of Ukraine, then after February 22 they could only have a fire set up in the forest.

That is the fact of the presence in the presidential chair in March 2014 of the well-fed and “three times non-convicted” would mean the complete impossibility of any gestures in the Crimea from Russia. And with these “new military doctrines” everything is quite ridiculous: people “diligently seek the key not where they lost it, but where it is light”.

Author:
Photos used:
kazday.kz
Articles from this series:
Allies in the era of hybrid war
Hybrid war as a way of life and death
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  1. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 26 March 2018 06: 24
    +4
    Only fools learn from their mistakes, smart make their own! fellow
  2. samarin1969
    samarin1969 26 March 2018 07: 08
    +10
    The local elites of these republics headed for "sovereignty" even with the living Union. We must take this as a reality. All sorts of projects like the CSTO or the EAC exist only as a temporary phenomenon ... in existing realities. Markers really are Ossetia and Ukraine.
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 26 March 2018 19: 43
      +5
      What elites are the greedy party nomenclature, there were no others anywhere!
    2. prosto_rgb
      prosto_rgb 28 March 2018 01: 04
      +1
      Do not remind the date of the RSFSR withdrawal from the USSR?
  3. Tired
    Tired 26 March 2018 08: 42
    +15
    Nazarbayev worries about North Kazakhstan and Lukashenko for Belarus as a whole, and their reflection is caused primarily by local nationalism, sometimes turning into Russophobia. Despite the fact that Kazakhstan has already been translated from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin alphabet, both leaders of the campaign are no longer just trying to sit on two chairs. They openly distance themselves from Russia on a number of issues. To consider them allies in such a situation becomes difficult.
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 26 March 2018 19: 47
      +3
      Alas, the population is not able to critically evaluate the actions of their leaders!
  4. Waddimm
    Waddimm 26 March 2018 09: 01
    +12
    Weighted article. Especially in the part of the supposedly "pro-Russian" elite in Ukraine, which was pro .... its power, it really wasn’t there. It is clear that all these "independent" elites are looking for how and to whom it is more expensive to sell, or simply the owner is stronger and richer.
    The new Ukrainian elite, in fact, is living off the plunder of what remains unlarmed, and most importantly, loans that it regularly seeks and receives in the West. At the same time, these people in power understand that such a money can never be given back to the country, but they consider that “for our age, it’s enough, and there the grass doesn’t grow!” In addition, they are under the auspices of a powerful overlord, and this is even more important!
    Obviously, the elites of other "independent" such a position seems optimal - safe and satisfying!
    Therefore, independence for them is important only from Russia. First, carefully exit the zone of influence of the weaker, at the moment, overlord. Then, as much as possible it is sold to a stronger one.
    Hence these doctrines, and the transition to the Latin alphabet, and so on, and so on. Everything is not very complicated.
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 26 March 2018 19: 59
      +3
      The "elites" are very afraid that the population may again consider themselves to be a single people. Then - why different states, why are they needed? Belarus is especially afraid of this.
    2. Olezhek
      27 March 2018 08: 33
      0
      In addition, they are under the patronage of a powerful overlord, and this is even more important! Obviously, this position seems optimal to the elites of other “independent” - safe and satisfying!



      What a strange illusion - "powerful overlord" today does not guarantee them anything.
      Neither territorial integrity nor stability of the economy nor personal security
      And yes, for Yanukovych, the West was also a "overlord"
  5. Architects
    Architects 26 March 2018 10: 09
    +2
    Will receive coups at home - will see clearly
    1. glasha3032
      glasha3032 26 March 2018 17: 16
      +1
      But they will run to Russia to escape ....
  6. Kazimir Prutikov
    Kazimir Prutikov 26 March 2018 11: 01
    +10
    Good article. Only there is one caveat. The author writes: “If Mr. Yanukovych had successfully dealt with Maidan-2, then there would have been no Crimea-Donbass. Successfully overcoming the first stage of the crisis means that the second simply will not happen.” Those. it describes the generally accepted version of Yanukovych’s guilt for the coup. But in the recently released film "World Order-18," the head of our state explicitly says that Russia recommended that Yanukovych withdraw troops (read about it here - https://ria.ru/world/20180307/1515920338.html). Those. it turns out that Russia indirectly contributed to the coup? This is somewhat reminiscent of the familiar situation with Gorbachev, when he was promised that NATO would not expand its area of ​​responsibility, and then deceived (read here - http://historyfoundation.ru/gorbachev/). And this is another song. When Russian leaders step on the same rake, the situation in the CIS becomes dumb. Many people want to distance themselves from Russia!
    1. odometer
      odometer 26 March 2018 12: 26
      +1
      Sound comment.
      1. vtnsk
        vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 20
        0
        In what? That "all the blame lies with Russia"? ... fool
    2. Mstivoy
      Mstivoy 26 March 2018 13: 04
      +1
      You are either stupid or deliberately mislead readers. Yes, Putin let slip that the West asked to influence Yanukovych and promised that the further situation will remain in the legal field and the West confirmed this promise with the signatures of three foreign ministers (France, Germany, Poland), so a comparison with Gorbachev is more than inappropriate. Second, the situation has developed for decades in such a way that there is no doubt that the West will try to unleash a conflict in Ukraine, and in Russia this was foreseen, we just tried to delay the X date. Following your logic, the presence of sovereignty in Russia is an indirect factor in the outbreak of civil conflict in the South East of Ukraine.
    3. vtnsk
      vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 19
      0
      Why such conclusions that Russia "leaked" Ukraine (Yanukovych)? There, the situation with the "Maidan" began to develop long before Putin voiced his "recommendation." Just at that moment it was already clear enough that bloodshed could not be avoided. And all that could already be done was to not allow him to go into a massacre. If not for this, then they would have received not the “heavenly hundred”, but thousands of victims ... hi
    4. Baby sitter
      Baby sitter 28 March 2018 23: 33
      0
      It’s good that you sit at home and knock on the clave, and not sit in the government .....
  7. g_ae
    g_ae 26 March 2018 13: 40
    +13
    I remember after the dispersal in Minsk in 2010. "democratizing" sheluponi, all these zmagars were very warmly received in Moscow. Lighted up on NTV. Pasha Sharemet broadcast there. Films were shot with Gazprom money about the "bloody dictator." We talked through a lip with Lukashenko. How so. Balaam. Here Yanukovych is yes. But Nazarbayev is generally practically a Russian. Well, only Kazakh. I remember how after each meeting between Putin or Medvedev and Lukashenko, he still doesn’t have time to climb the plane’s gangway, and already spitting from the TV is flying in his back. What is now offended. You yourself say that Russia has no allies. Something like this.
    1. M Lat
      M Lat 26 March 2018 14: 40
      +3
      g_ae, it’s only believed that the zombie is tightly controlled by the Russian authorities and that we have only Rain and Echo in the whole of Russia, in fact, everything is much more complicated, and they certainly don’t write texts to the journalists, they all hesitate in trying to earn money by themselves, and even “Kremlin mouthpieces” can inflict such enchanting blizzards that in no way reflect the point of view of the state from the word in any way, so you wrote very well about spitting in the back, but not to the cashier.
      1. g_ae
        g_ae 26 March 2018 14: 47
        +7
        Nothing happens without consequences. Since 1994 such spits the whole sea has gathered. So normal relationships are drowning in these spits. In general, it seems to me that initially it was not an ally that was needed, but "his son of a bitch." You can say that you have achieved your goal.
        1. vtnsk
          vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 26
          0
          To build a "normal relationship" is necessary in the first place - the balance of partners. And since this is not even mentioned, it really has what we have. We have no other for you and will no longer be ... hi
    2. Victor N
      Victor N 26 March 2018 15: 29
      +2
      Do you think that Lukashenka does not give reasons? Many have not perceived HIS as an ally for a long time.
      1. g_ae
        g_ae 26 March 2018 15: 43
        +8
        Well, we will consider who first filed a reason? Kindergarten in the sandbox. And, excuse me, but who is perceived. If already Nazarbayev began to give you reasons. Who is the ally? Friend C Sorry, but your "elite" is just waiting for her to be called again by the western masters. Like friend Bill, friend Gerhard, friend George. These are real allies.
        1. Victor N
          Victor N 26 March 2018 20: 28
          +1
          Reputation is not determined by counters. Everyone already has it - and Lukashenko, and Nazarbayev, and even Putin. The results are uneven.
    3. Olezhek
      26 March 2018 19: 53
      +2
      Films were shot on Gazprom money about the "bloody dictator". Through the lip with Lukashenko communicated. How so. Balaam.


      Is it by chance not after the "non-recognition" of J. Ossetia?
      If so, then everything is fine. Get accustomed to being responsible for your words and deeds.
    4. vtnsk
      vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 23
      0
      With such "allies" no enemies are needed ... laughing
  8. vladikod
    vladikod 26 March 2018 14: 06
    +5
    The duality of the policy of the Russian leadership and its pro-government oligarchy precisely led to this state of affairs both in Russia itself, and in Belarus and Kazakhstan, and in many other former fraternal republics of the Union ... National leaders who are forced to rely on their own do not see reliable support a pro-Western oligarchy, since "backroom games" are taking place in Russia, where until literally the last moment before the elections it was not clear where Russia would go ... Yes, and not everything is clear yet ... But these "toys" with the Kiev regime durations have almost surpassed the Great Patriotic War and the Civil War after the revolution of the 17s ...
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 26 March 2018 16: 52
      +1
      What kind of support do national leaders expect? Of money? Preferences?
      It is dependency behavior that averts such "allies."
    2. Suhow
      Suhow 26 March 2018 17: 07
      +1
      I support the opinion of Vladikode, the duality of politics, indecision, pliability, and the same question with Milosevic, for example. Yes, and the current dances with Natsik in Ukraine do not strengthen the image of the Russian Federation, at this time in response to cries of an achressor and a frenzy in gas transit, etc. there should be an answer on zhezhe as well as on non-admission to the elections. Further, in matters with the West and the states, Russia also loses, while the weak are looking for the strongest ....
      1. vtnsk
        vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 40
        0
        "If you do not see a gopher, then this does not mean that it is not there" (C) ... laughing
        You should not put your enchanting fantasies above the geopolitical decisions of the Russian leadership. It has repeatedly shown that complex “parties” are not won in “one or two moves” ...
    3. glasha3032
      glasha3032 26 March 2018 17: 21
      +1
      Putin by his rule clearly showed where Russia would go and wait for any turn after the election would be stupid, and no one had expected this to be any far-fetched turn.
    4. vtnsk
      vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 36
      0
      Mixed up nothing? Put Russia on one level (or rather, even lower) with Belarus and Kazakhstan? Himself not funny? ... laughing
  9. pepel
    pepel 26 March 2018 14: 24
    +2
    Soon we will get a couple of “wild fields” at our borders. angry
    1. g_ae
      g_ae 26 March 2018 14: 49
      +6
      Continuing in the same spirit, you will receive not only at the borders, but also within the borders.
      1. M Lat
        M Lat 26 March 2018 15: 07
        +1
        it’s possible to do or not do anything, it’s such a region, geopolitical interests lie here: the USA, old Europe, Young Europe and even Arabs with Israel, it’s China that hasn’t climbed here, there will still be roofing felts ... everything will be in ruins around Russia , it’s not touched, it’s forgotten, but I don’t know what to do to the neighbors, pro-Americanism, as you see, is also far from a panacea
        1. vtnsk
          vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 42
          0
          Russia is interested in China as a "reliable partner" and does not even dream of any expansion of it ... smile
      2. vtnsk
        vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 41
        0
        Farm dreams in Russia do not work! ... laughing
  10. g_ae
    g_ae 26 March 2018 15: 23
    +6
    In general, I am interested in the following. Did Russia learn from Ukrainian events? And what exactly did she extract? And what is going to be done so that this does not happen again in our country or in Kazakhstan? What work is being done with us, for example, in Poland, I see. Where is Russia? You, excuse me, even managed to privatize the victory in the Great Patriotic War. And then a lot of talk about the Russian world, but what is it? Did you help the Russians much in the Baltic states and Central Asia? Is it easy for a Russian to obtain Russian citizenship? And how many Russians lived in the republics of the North Caucasus, and how many now? Yes, and the Donbass somehow unclear turns out.
    1. glasha3032
      glasha3032 26 March 2018 17: 24
      +2
      Well, if you don’t want to live in peace with Russia, welcome to Ukraine! You will be happy there ... And then Russia is somehow not so ...
      1. g_ae
        g_ae 26 March 2018 17: 34
        +3
        Women's Logic
        1. vtnsk
          vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 46
          0
          Everyone understands by virtue of their intellectual development. That is why the farmer will never understand the city dweller - the level of critical thinking is different ... good
    2. prosto_rgb
      prosto_rgb 28 March 2018 01: 10
      +2
      Quote: g_ae
      Did Russia learn from Ukrainian events?

      Of course I did.
      But not only one RF.
    3. vtnsk
      vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 43
      0
      Retrieved, but not for you ... laughing
  11. Humpty
    Humpty 26 March 2018 15: 35
    +4
    Quote: g_ae
    I remember after the dispersal in Minsk in 2010. "democratizing" sheluponi, all these zmagars were very warmly received in Moscow. Lighted up on NTV. Pasha Sharemet broadcast there. Films shot on Gazprom money about the "bloody dictator"

    The remark is fair. Only from your bell tower sounds funny. Conditionally in the eyes of Belarus fatter "logs" are available. Is not it ? How about some quite successful residents of Minsk, whose photos in a friendly country have been hanging on the ads "They are wanted by the police" for years.
    Quote: samarin1969
    All sorts of projects like the CSTO or the EAC exist only as a temporary phenomenon ... in existing realities. Markers really are Ossetia and Ukraine.

    In addition to Ukraine and Ossetia, there are other obvious markers - Iraq, Crimea, Syria, Abkhazia. Some Russian CSTO allies have had a severe form of enuresis since the spring of 2014.
    I thought about the cause of the ailment and I see its reason is that the sick people intuitively feel that their face is in a cannon.
    1. g_ae
      g_ae 26 March 2018 15: 52
      +4
      Yeah and a resident of Rostov. Measuring logs is pointless. Everyone has them. But finding a way out despite logs is quite another. And then, I don’t remember something, that someone would ask for help with Iraq, with Syria, with Abkhazia, with Crimea.
      1. vtnsk
        vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 48
        +1
        Why do Russia need such "helpers"? We have already seen how they “helped” in South Ossetia, etc. All your "help" only in parades is capable of showing its "fighting spirit" ... laughing
  12. Sewer krainiy
    Sewer krainiy 26 March 2018 16: 28
    +3
    in Belarus there is almost no honest assessment of the events of the first phase of the conflict in Ukraine. That is, Maidan-2 in Kiev, actively supported from abroad.
    Where does this conclusion come from? We also had a so-called. Maidan, tents on the square, the UNA-UNSO helped our "zmahar", foreigners, probably, also supported. We sat for a week and were dispersed. By the way, yesterday, an attempt to organize an unauthorized procession in honor of the so-called. BNR's 100 Anniversary was successfully suppressed.
    It's me that
    And in general, following the Russian experience, we must begin to slowly take “different foreign agents” by the scruff of their neck. Do it in advance. Very advance is the only way to preserve sovereignty.

    So at one time, pan Lukashenko had fun, conducting "anti-terrorism exercises" on the border with Russia.
    So they are held almost annually: either West-2017, or joint special forces exercises (just now). Maybe they will, they don’t report to us smile
    The fundamental discrepancy lies precisely in this - in assessing the current political situation in Ukraine: from the point of view of Russia, radicals, nationalists and criminals are in power, and the country is under external control; from the point of view of Minsk / Astana - everything is fine. The existing regime is quite legitimate and worthy of dialogue.
    After the election, Poroshenko, Russia recognized the legitimacy of this government. Putin in Minsk met with Poroshenko at the Quartet, as President Putin, as a guarantor, together with France and Germany, signed Minsk-1. And since when has the offer of reconciliation services become compromising material?
    Honestly, to name a spade both Minsk and Astana are hindered by fear of Western partners and fear of their own (exclusively pro-Western oriented “opposition”).
    I can’t say anything about Astana, about Minsk - see above.

    Here we in Russia do not quite understand this problem, but we still have a mass of people who are anti-Western. But in the same RB / RK, the internal situation is somewhat different ...
    Did the author study the situation in Belarus well? With the same success, I can repeat your phrase: “Here we are, in Belarus ... ... But in the same Russia (and hereinafter).
    And I would not give an assessment of the work of the heads of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. This is not mortal for us smile They know what they are doing.
    1. Olezhek
      26 March 2018 19: 50
      +3
      Where does this conclusion come from? We also had a so-called. Maidan, tents on the square, the UNA-UNSO helped our "zmahar", foreigners, probably, also supported. We sat for a week and were dispersed. By the way, yesterday, an attempt to organize an unauthorized procession in honor of the so-called. BNR's 100 Anniversary was successfully suppressed.


      Mdja? What are the Maladians ... What is the official reaction of the official Minsk to the coup in Kiev ??

      we must begin to slowly take by the scruff of various “foreign agents” there.

      So they are held almost annually: the West-2017, the joint exercises of special forces (just that). Maybe they will, we are not reporting


      You still know - stubbornly confuse "soft with warm." What is the connection between military exercises and work against the subversive activities of the Western powers ??

      After the election, Poroshenko, Russia recognized the legitimacy of this government. Putin in Minsk met with Poroshenko at the Quartet, as President Putin, as a guarantor, together with France and Germany, signed Minsk-1. And since when has the offer of reconciliation services become compromising material?


      You would have offered services for "reconciliation with Hitler". After the coup in Kiev, the Kremlin’s policy towards Ukraine unfolded by 180 degrees
      Toko blind may not notice this. Tryndet about the fact that Poroshenko for Moscow is a worthy partner - well, this does not follow events at all.

      about Minsk - see above.


      Once again - where and when did Minsk call things by their proper names (regarding the junta and neo-Nazis in Kiev?)

      The author studied the situation in Belarus well.


      Not bad.

      And I would not give an assessment of the work of the heads of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. This is not mortal for us


      This is exactly what follows from such comments: RF and RB - very different countries. Highly.
      1. Sewer krainiy
        Sewer krainiy 26 March 2018 20: 42
        +1
        You still know - stubbornly confuse "soft with warm." What is the connection between military exercises and work against the subversive activities of the Western powers ??
        Read more carefully: So at one time, pan Lukashenko had fun, conducting "anti-terrorism exercises" on the border with Russia.
        Toko blind may not notice this. Tryndet about the fact that Poroshenko for Moscow is a worthy partner - well, this does not follow events at all.
        And where did you see me say that Poroshenko at least for someone worthy partner smile
        Once again - where and when did Minsk call things by their proper names (regarding the junta and neo-Nazis in Kiev?
        This question is not for me, I called my own names. And then - politics. One thing I can say, when at the first meeting Petrush started talking about the Crimea, Lukashenko immediately said: "If the Crimea is yours, why didn’t you defend it." Briefly and clearly.
        This is exactly what follows from such comments: the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus are very different countries. Highly.
        The countries are different, of course: one is Russia, the second is Belarus, and the people one drinks hi
    2. Victor N
      Victor N 26 March 2018 21: 13
      +1
      "Not for you" - but a lot of reasoning. However, weight categories are not taken into account, which provides significant errors.
  13. g_ae
    g_ae 26 March 2018 17: 09
    +4
    All this resembles "beat your own, so that strangers are afraid." That's just today there is an occasion to demonstrate coolness to strangers. Again, Maria Zakharova will be perplexed by the box. And the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will demonstrate strict restraint and dignity 1001 times.
    1. vtnsk
      vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 51
      0
      Do you want to get your gesheft again with the help of someone else's (Russian) hands? "Swam, we know" (C) ... laughing
  14. naidas
    naidas 26 March 2018 22: 37
    +4
    Delusional article.
    and what lessons have the Russian elite learned since 1991, cost the West to wave a finger and the entire elite with their wives, lovers, children and capital "earned" in Russia immediately molts to the west, or is ready to serve the west in Russia.
    1. prosto_rgb
      prosto_rgb 28 March 2018 01: 14
      +1
      Quote: naidas
      immediately molts west

      it does not fade, but is introduced, to form the correct public opinion, and of other things, the little things.
      do not confuse the warm with the soft.
      1. naidas
        naidas 28 March 2018 10: 37
        0
        Quote: prosto_rgb
        is being introduced

        Is it Berezovsky, is Khodorkovsky being introduced? Skripal has already been introduced.
    2. vtnsk
      vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 52
      0
      Bulky nonsense ... laughing
  15. VladGashek
    VladGashek 26 March 2018 23: 35
    +2
    The former Soviet national nomenclature got used to lay under the strong. RF is not very strong. Therefore, neither Lukashenko nor Nazarbay will be guided by it. They are looking for someone to lie down so as not to lose their profits. All scientific reasoning, logical constructions rest against the wall of small-town thinking of these dwarfs. Therefore, one should not expect honesty and devotion from them. It will be beneficial - they will sell and do not blush.
    1. vtnsk
      vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 54
      0
      “If you choose the first between shame and war, then in the end you get both that and the other” (S, Winston Churchill) ... good
  16. MV Lenpeh
    MV Lenpeh 27 March 2018 18: 49
    0
    Just like Putin, according to faith, was divorced in 2014 by persuading Yanukovych to persuade him not to use troops, they are bred others; then tied with this compromising material, make it your own. They are masters of their craft, perfecting various "divide and conquer", "carrot and stick" variations. In the article, the author cited a convincing combination of arguments and facts, but lovers of objectivity can recall, for example, joining the WTO. We agreed to the Republic of Kazakhstan, Belarus and the Russian Federation to enter together, at the same time, by the troika. But something went wrong, the Russian Federation pulled the first one: either the carrots were sweeter and more showed, or something else. They say that the Russian Federation so rushed into the gap that the State Duma deputies made a decision without even reading the Russian text of the impending consequences. Who, how and where will draw the line between national interests, betrayal and compromise? Or here is the Ilyukhinsky trial of Putin. The court is amusing, but the facts are real. If in the topic, you should ask what defense enterprises ceased to exist in the period from 2000. Yes, now the situation and Putin’s attitude is changing, but is there any guarantee that the next such steep turn will not happen again?
    1. Olezhek
      27 March 2018 20: 42
      +1
      They say that the Russian Federation so pulled into the gap, that the deputies of the State Duma made a decision, without even reading the Russian text of the future consequences


      And all this shortly before the sanctions?
    2. vtnsk
      vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 57
      0
      And how many "defense enterprises" ceased to exist before the year 2000, do not want to know? And compare the numbers, how many of them are now restored and working? ... fool
  17. Victor N
    Victor N 28 March 2018 04: 55
    +1
    European countries, based on allied commitments, recall diplomats from Russia.
    Belarus and Kazakhstan need to learn: the status of an ally is obligatory. Otherwise - not an ally - and so .... - borrow three rubles .....
  18. vtnsk
    vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 07
    0
    Quote: prosto_rgb
    Do not remind the date of the RSFSR withdrawal from the USSR?

    And this side here? If you do not know, then in the RSFSR then "at the helm" was the same party-nomenclature elite, as elsewhere. And no one asked people. They made a decision behind the scenes and themselves carried it out. Or do you want to once again show the whole world - "Russia is to blame for everything"? ... fellow
  19. vtnsk
    vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 10
    0
    Quote: Victor N
    Alas, the population is not able to critically evaluate the actions of their leaders!

    Everywhere in different ways. It all depends on the degree of "adequacy" of the population. The most telling example of this is today's Ukraine ... hi
  20. vtnsk
    vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 12
    0
    Quote: Archbishop
    Will receive coups at home - will see clearly

    Something in Ukraine is not visible ... laughing
  21. vtnsk
    vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 30
    0
    Quote: g_ae
    Well, we will consider who first filed a reason? Kindergarten in the sandbox. And, excuse me, but who is perceived. If already Nazarbayev began to give you reasons. Who is the ally? Friend C Sorry, but your "elite" is just waiting for her to be called again by the western masters. Like friend Bill, friend Gerhard, friend George. These are real allies.

    A very simplified understanding of Russian politics and its interests in the world, characteristic of the PSP farm population ... fellow
  22. vtnsk
    vtnsk 28 March 2018 07: 33
    0
    Is it by chance not after the "non-recognition" of J. Ossetia?
    If so, then everything is fine. Get used to answering for your words and deeds. [/ Quote]
    This is not possible by definition. The policy of the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Kazakhstan does not allow this ... wink
  23. Baby sitter
    Baby sitter 28 March 2018 23: 35
    0
    All things must be brought to an end !! We haven’t finished adapting Russia to the new realities, here we have the ungrateful freeloaders .... Although we got rid of half.
    1. evgeny68
      evgeny68 29 March 2018 18: 50
      +1
      Dear borosopisets, who from Belarus is an ungrateful parasite. The people who died in the Second World War, one in four, the largest partisan movement. After the war, they all rebuilt the country together, worked at all major construction sites of the USSR, fought in Afghanistan, ethnically Belarusians and Russians are one nation, and in fact it is. And there is a snotty hobzaite who calls Belarusians ungrateful parasites. It’s good that you are one.
      1. Olezhek
        30 March 2018 09: 46
        +1
        But now, just as pathetically and heroically, tell us how Belarusians in everything and always supported Russia after the 1991 year.
        And about XNUMH is no longer necessary - there were other people there.