Military Review

After Afrin, Manbij, Raqqah and the eastern bank of the Euphrates

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The promise of the YPG field commanders (the Kurdish "people's self-defense detachments"), who surrendered Afrin without a fight, to arrange for the Turkish troops and the Islamist-controlled nightmares during the large-scale guerrilla warfare does not sound too convincing.
After Afrin, Manbij, Raqqah and the eastern bank of the Euphrates



Recall that in March 18, the Turkish invaders and Islamists from the so-called “Syrian Free Army” occupied the city of Afrin, which was previously under YPG control, from resistance, from where it came before 150 000 civilians. The exodus of refugees was preceded by strikes on residential areas, entailing numerous casualties. Obviously, there was a deliberate fire "squeezing" of the population.

According to eyewitnesses, now in the city there is a mass looting and a real massacre. Militants of Islamist gangs who have taken the city are robbing, raping and killing the remaining residents. Turkish troops are not taking any steps to stop the crimes.

Either there are too few of them to take control of the situation, or the actions of the SSA fit into their plans to oust the Kurdish population from the enclave. However, it is known that Turkish police formations and Kurdish detachments operating on the side of Ankara, which will maintain order in the occupied territories, were previously entered into the enclave. So, it is possible that after three days of "laid" according to the old tradition of plundering the city, the orgy of violence will stop.

But back to the intentions of YPG to deploy a large-scale guerrilla war.

“We will bombard Turkish enemies and their mercenaries whenever possible. Our forces are represented throughout Africa. Our blows will be a constant nightmare for them. It will be a guerrilla war with horrendous consequences for the enemy, ”Reuters quotes one of the Kurdish warlords.

However, if YPG really intends to achieve “horrific consequences” for enemies, then urban fighting would be the best way to achieve such a goal.

Recall that the actions of small mobile militant groups of the IG (“Islamic State” is a terrorist organization banned in Russia) defending Raqqu and Mosul not only inflicted huge coalition losses, but also delayed the process of seizing these cities for long months.

Moreover, such results were achieved by relatively small forces and means. If the Kurds really would like to fight with the Turks and their allies “in an adult way”, then nothing better than urban conditions could be invented. There, assaults drawn into street battles at extremely short distances would lose their main advantage - artillery and aviation support

At the same time, partisan actions outside the city, in the rural areas of the enclave, are unlikely to be as successful as the Kurdish warlords say about this.

If only because the enclave is not the territory of Turkey, and the occupiers can not stand on ceremony with the population, without the support of which a long guerrilla war is impossible. In addition, for the dirtiest work, Ankara has “independent” SSAs, who can easily be trusted with the “solution of the Kurdish issue” in the event of a real serious partisan threat.
Recall that the Kurdish gangs performed the same task during the Armenian Genocide in 1915. The Turks willingly delegated the bloodiest "work" to them.

However, the "guerrilla" threats of YPG are likely to remain threats. And they were pronounced only to say something at all after the flight from Afrin. Moreover, as the Turkish edition of Anadolu reported, the Turks and Islamists, by the evening of March 18, the northern, eastern and western regions of the region, including six cities of Raju, Bulbul, Sheikh Hadid, Jinderes and Mabatly, took complete control.

Why did the Kurds surrender the city without a fight, when the YPG militants recently swore and swore to die for Afrin?

Most likely, the explanation for this is the agreement reached between Ankara and Washington.

Recall that recently the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, Mevlüt авavuşoогlu, announced that a withdrawal of Kurdish militants from Manbij was agreed with the US.
“YPG in Manbidz will not remain under any circumstances. There will remain the US and Turkish military, who will control the withdrawal of the YPG and will ensure security there, ”the Turkish Foreign Minister said, adding that such a withdrawal scheme of the Kurdish formations will be applied in Manbidzh, and later in others, for example, in Raqqa and the eastern bank of the Euphrates.
It must be said that the words of Chavoshoglu are similar to the truth, and the Americans "surrendered" their Kurdish allies, in exchange for the right to maintain their military presence in the "30-kilometer security zone" along the Turkish-Syrian border.

Probably, this conspiracy also involves some kind of territory where the Americans will be able to withdraw Kurdish gangs under their control. Although, as we see, the Turks are aiming at Raqqa and other territories controlled today by the pro-American coalition, consisting mainly of Kurdish troops.

Recall that Damascus and Moscow offered the Kurdish enclaves in the north of Syria protection and the creation of their autonomy within the framework of the CAP, but the leaders of the YPG and VTS preferred the proposal loyalty to the US and hopes of building a "Great Kurdistan".

The Americans, in turn, in order to avoid a highly undesirable direct confrontation with the Turks, which could escalate into an armed conflict with a NATO member country, Kurds were “merged”, and the YPG leaders who were in their salaries were forced to surrender. And the talk of a “large-scale guerrilla war” is intended to divert attention from ordinary militants and the Kurdish public from this fact.

It is noteworthy that the Kurdish administration of Afrin held a press conference in the village of Shahba, co-chairman of the Executive Council Osman Sheikh Isa, read out a statement in which he announced the "evacuation" of the city in order to "avoid massacres among the civilian population and a major humanitarian catastrophe."

Moreover, the co-chair blamed the incident ... Russia! He stated the following: “The attack on Afrin began on January 20, with the complicity of Russia and in the silence of regional powers. Russia opened its airspace for Turkey to commit the massacre of our people with all its weaponsand sacrificed our people for their interests. ”

As we can see, the cynicism of American mercenaries, who rejected the help of Damascus and Russia on instructions from their "employers", is unlimited.
What next? In addition to the campaign on Manbij announced by Chavoshoglu, one can expect Turkish activity in other directions. In particular, according to Kurdish sources that have not yet received official confirmation, a detachment of Turkish troops entered the mountainous region of Sidakan in the north of the Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq. As always, under the pretext of fighting the formations of the "Kurdistan Workers Party".

It is also reported that the borders of autonomy are being pulled by Iraqi troops and militia. To counter the Turks, or for joint actions with them, it is impossible to say for sure. Although the second option seems more likely.

In Afrin himself, the Turks intend to create a collaborationist administration of the "oppositionists" - the Islamists of the SSA. Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag, saying that Turkish troops will leave Afrin after the transfer of this region to the “real masters”. According to the official Ankara, it is the “real masters” who the Turkish Deputy Prime Minister didn’t specify, but there is reason to believe that the talk was about jihadist gangs.

If we consider that the militants created by the Turks of the SSA are from almost all the terrorist groups operating in Syria, we can expect that Afrin will turn into another gangster enclave, like Idlib.

That is, the issue of the liberation of the enclave will sooner or later arise before the Syrian authorities.
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  1. Yrec
    Yrec 22 March 2018 09: 23
    +10
    If the above is close to the truth, then extremely disappointing conclusions follow. First: the Kurds did not grow up to the creation of their state, no matter how much they would not shout about it. Second: the Kurdish army did not become full-fledged, despite all the efforts of the United States. It is not capable of fighting the regular army (unlike the IS militants), it’s only partisan. Third: the Kurdish leadership, for the most part, is unprincipled, cowardly and petty. Fourth: all factors have emerged for the thinning of the Kurdish population in both Turkey and Syria and Iraq. To save him will not work. This is my subjective opinion. Sorry for the simple peaceful Kurds.
    1. NEOZ
      NEOZ 22 March 2018 10: 00
      0
      1-3 agree (3rd especially agree!).
      4 massacre is unlikely to withstand, but to drive in the reservation completely.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 22 March 2018 19: 05
      0
      That's right, that's right. But the Kurds need atonomy as part of Syria and not another IG. East is a delicate matter. winked
  2. raki-uzo
    raki-uzo 22 March 2018 10: 19
    +4
    I stopped reading as soon as I got to "... there is massive looting and real massacre."
    Massacre?!? It is clear that the continuation is in the same spirit. A very implausible "story."
    1. Yrec
      Yrec 22 March 2018 10: 37
      +1
      I'd love to hear an opinion from Turkey regarding the current situation. What are your media talking about? Forums? What is the attitude of the people as a whole to everything that happens? To Assad? To the actions of Russian forces in Syria? To the Turkish Kurds? Erdogan’s actions? To the American presence in Syria?
      1. raki-uzo
        raki-uzo 22 March 2018 13: 13
        +9
        The people of Turkey (here not only the Turks mean) support the operation "olive branch". The United States armed the terrorists (and not only the United States), who were located directly on the border, prepared them for a war with Turkey; everyone remembers that the bombings in different Turkish cities are the hand of the same terrorists, plus there were rocket attacks from the same territory on Turkish cities. The operation allowed the creation of a buffer zone, prevented the deterioration of the situation, pushed the terrorists further from their borders. Erdogan promised to return the territory when everyone rests. The Syrians who live on our money in Turkey will soon return to their territories, we do not expect “muck” from them, since we took good care of them; until the situation is clear, they gave them the opportunity to study in Turkey, they received medical assistance, they worked as best they could, many of them received, at least some, money from the state, many lived like people.

        Assad had to leave in time, but Erdogan should not have said that Assad should leave. Then there would be no war, there would be elections and the people would decide what to do next.

        Why is the US there? You Know Me Better - Weapon Marketing; strategic concealment of an oil reserve (meaning, which is located in the east of the Mediterranean Sea, near Cyprus, Turkey and Syria); create a toy-Kurdish state for their own purposes; to keep scores with Iran and Turkey and after them head against Russia.

        Why is Russia there? There are many reasons, and most importantly, that the United States does not go against it.

        Turkish Kurds - 95% of them live peacefully. We live well, they serve in the army, they are doctors, they are deputies, they are athletes, they are patriots, they are, like us. No problem at all.

        What to do next? - I often see anti-Turkish statements in the comments. Thank God Russian Kremlin politicians are much smarter than the local commentators. Russia, Turkey and Iran should work together (they already do this); Turkey must find a common language with Assad (since he did not leave on his own, but should); Russia must admit (now someone will jump out and say, “Russia owes nothing to anyone”) of the PKK as a terrorist organization and actively support the “olive branch” operation with Iran and Assad together;

        If we end the Kurdish terrorists, we will end the United States accordingly. Because they will have no reason to exist in Syria.
        1. Yrec
          Yrec 22 March 2018 13: 27
          +4
          Thanks so much for your comment. Your opinion is very valuable, as it reflects the opinion of the Turkish people in our forum. Anti-Turkish comments on the forum, this is from ignorance of your country. I like to relax in Turkey with my family (not all inclusive, on my own). I know a little Turkish and have been to many places in Turkey. The kindest and most responsive Turks, in my opinion, are those who do not speak any other than the Turkish language. I hope our peoples will always live in peace.
        2. Cheldon
          Cheldon 22 March 2018 14: 05
          +4
          Quote: raki-uzo


          Assad had to leave in time, but Erdogan should not have said that Assad should leave. Then there would be no war, there would be elections and the people would decide

          Assad is a popularly elected president. Why should Assad leave? Because a miserable bunch of nonhumans that rob Afrin of a little too much and need to rob more? And 100 years later, the Turks woke up the desire to at least somehow return from its former greatness? Have you seen what is happening in Afrin? Do you want to plunder the whole of Syria on tractors?
          God is written with a capital letter, you Allah do not write with a small letter, and for the future, if you are afraid to make a mistake, then write the Almighty.
          Leave your pride on your housemates. Russia without you just takes what it needs to do. And about the mental abilities of commentators I will say this: people are not judged by themselves. If in Turkey all the smartest are around Erdogan, and the rest, to the best of their ability, can only comment on Russian sites, then we should not think that we have the same thing. hi
          1. raki-uzo
            raki-uzo 22 March 2018 14: 15
            +1
            https://rg.ru/2013/04/11/slovo.html
            Thank you for "clarified."
          2. Yrec
            Yrec 22 March 2018 14: 29
            +3
            As for Assad, I agree with you. As for Afrin, objective information is needed to draw conclusions. We draw information from our media, Turks from our own. And they both believe in one degree or another. Therefore, the Turkish opinion is valuable that it is not ours. We must look at all this catavasia with Turkish eyes so that we do not get a one-dimensional picture. About mental abilities, I will say this: I do not judge other people by myself, I judge myself by my knowledge. Turk speaks Russian, do you speak Turkish? He says that he is annoyed to read anti-Turkish comments, do you like reading anti-Russian? He has the courage to defend his point of view at a predominantly anti-Turkish forum, and you defend at anti-Russian? Please respect the opinions of others. Even if you do not like it.
            1. Ramzay121
              Ramzay121 22 March 2018 15: 09
              +3
              Yrec, I’m reading both Turkish and Russian and foreign. Believe me, the Turkish media are more objective in covering what is happening in Afrin. A lot of fakes in the form of photos, videos of what is allegedly happening in Afrin, hence the indignation of some, like Cheldon, the cat. do not pass the Old through the filter. The fact that they are fakes is very easy to prove in Turkish media. Of course, it is difficult for the Russian and European readers to imagine the picture when there is one-sided information, like the one written above. In order to understand that in Afghanistan no one rapes or loot anyone, one must first understand the principles of the Turkish army and discipline.
              1. Yrec
                Yrec 22 March 2018 15: 20
                +1
                I am also inclined to this. Our Turks do not interfere with Afrin clean out, so everything goes there by agreement and without deviations. The massacre would begin, ours would be the first to scream about it. And since everything is quiet, it means that the Kurds are neatly squeezed out of Afrin from the corridor without big problems. So where then will these Kurds go then?
                1. Ramzay121
                  Ramzay121 22 March 2018 16: 13
                  +1
                  Yes exactly. At the expense of where the Kurds go, it will already depend on the Americans, where they will be used in the future. By the way, it’s interesting, they said that there are about 60-100 thousand ISIS, where did they go, didn’t destroy them all?
            2. Cheldon
              Cheldon 22 March 2018 15: 10
              0
              Yavash-yavash beldym wink . By your logic, this is not even an anti-Turkish forum, but an anti-world one. You saw a photo of what is being done in Afrin? And comments clarifying that the events are taking place in Afrin. If offended, then I'm sorry. “I don’t agree with any word that you say, but I’m ready to die for your right to say it” (option: “I don’t share your beliefs, but I’m ready to die for your right to speak”) - a popular expression about the principles of freedom of speech, democracy, attributed to Voltaire (without specifying a work). In fact, the authorship belongs to the English writer Evelyn Hall and was sounded in her biography book of Voltaire “The Friends of Voltaire” (1906). (From Wikipedia)
              The Kurds received for their stupidity and pride, but we should not go on about our animal instincts. If every time we ask the Almighty to forgive our sins and we are forgiven, why do we behave like a bastard towards others. I understand that there is a war going on and only soldiers should die, and never touch civilians, even showed humanism to prisoners, the Koran also says this.
            3. Cheldon
              Cheldon 22 March 2018 15: 11
              +1
              Quote: Yrec
              As for Assad, I agree with you. As for Afrin, objective information is needed to draw conclusions. We draw information from our media, Turks from our own. And they both believe in one degree or another. Therefore, the Turkish opinion is valuable that it is not ours. We must look at all this catavasia with Turkish eyes so that we do not get a one-dimensional picture. About mental abilities, I will say this: I do not judge other people by myself, I judge myself by my knowledge. Turk speaks Russian, do you speak Turkish? He says that he is annoyed to read anti-Turkish comments, do you like reading anti-Russian? He has the courage to defend his point of view at a predominantly anti-Turkish forum, and you defend at anti-Russian? Please respect the opinions of others. Even if you do not like it.

              Yavash-yavash beldym wink . By your logic, this is not even an anti-Turkish forum, but an anti-world one. You saw a photo of what is being done in Afrin? And comments clarifying that the events are taking place in Afrin. If offended, then I'm sorry. “I don’t agree with any word that you say, but I’m ready to die for your right to say it” (option: “I don’t share your beliefs, but I’m ready to die for your right to speak”) - a popular expression about the principles of freedom of speech, democracy, attributed to Voltaire (without specifying a work). In fact, the authorship belongs to the English writer Evelyn Hall and was sounded in her biography book of Voltaire “The Friends of Voltaire” (1906). (From Wikipedia)
              The Kurds received for their stupidity and pride, but we should not go on about our animal instincts. If every time we ask the Almighty to forgive our sins and we are forgiven, why do we behave like a bastard towards others. I understand that there is a war going on and only soldiers should die, and never touch civilians, even showed humanism to prisoners, the Koran also says this.
              1. Yrec
                Yrec 22 March 2018 15: 36
                +2
                I was not offended - a heated discussion is the shortest path to the truth. Concerning: "I do not agree with any word that you say, but I am ready to die for your right to say this" - I think this is a pathos lie. I agree with the right of others to their opinion, but I do not want for their right to die. Here you don’t want to die for yours.
                And I am sorry for the Athenian Kurds; rather, they are not paying for their pride and stupidity, but for the pride and stupidity of their fathers-commanders. Yes, and in the East, humanism is a sign of weakness and the peaceful people here get it.
                1. Cheldon
                  Cheldon 22 March 2018 16: 09
                  +1
                  Quote: Yrec
                  I was not offended - a heated discussion is the shortest path to the truth. Concerning: "I do not agree with any word that you say, but I am ready to die for your right to say this" - I think this is a pathos lie. I agree with the right of others to their opinion, but I do not want for their right to die. Here you don’t want to die for yours.
                  And I am sorry for the Athenian Kurds; rather, they are not paying for their pride and stupidity, but for the pride and stupidity of their fathers-commanders. Yes, and in the East, humanism is a sign of weakness and the peaceful people here get it.

                  Regarding humanism in the East, you correctly noted, but there is something to strive for.
                  Turkey, too, was on the verge of a civil war if Erdogan-Myalim had not been warned by "someone" wink It is not known how events would develop.
                  Regarding death for someone else’s opinion, yes, a populist slogan, no one should die.
                  1. tekinoral
                    tekinoral 22 March 2018 16: 25
                    0
                    Quote: Cheldon
                    Turkey, too, stood on the brink of civil war if Erdogan-melima

                    Are you sure that Russia warned? Or heard from rumors wink
          3. tekinoral
            tekinoral 22 March 2018 16: 23
            +1
            Quote: Cheldon
            Because a miserable bunch of nonhumans that rob Afrin of a little too much and need to rob more?

            Evidence in the studio pzhl that the Turks are robbing, and so with the tongue, wagging is not a sack hi
          4. Korax71
            Korax71 22 March 2018 19: 44
            -1
            Assad popularly elected belay interesting elections. The Syrian wing of the Ba'ath party nominated one single candidate, by coincidence, the son of the previous ruler, although the khazef had a senior son, but he died in an accident. And the people voted for one single candidate. good about 82% scored. what interesting choices without a choice. laughing
        3. russia2016
          russia2016 22 March 2018 20: 03
          +2
          Listen, you, (raki-uzo) just don’t need to drool here, and tell about pink unirogs what an honest and fluffy Turkey is all here. No one has forgotten about the genocides carried out by Turkey in the world, thank God. About the Kurds in general, a separate conversation, for the Turks a priori, the Kurd is a terrorist.
          "Ertogan promised to return the territory of Syria," it’s like the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Northern Cyprus for the past 50 years.
          "The Syrians who live on our money in Turkey" - you’ve already become scarred, you who beg for money from the European Union every time we blackmail us to send an army of refugees to Europe, just the other day they allocated another tranche of 3 billion !!! Fear Allah, how much you can lie!
          Ertogan is a typical dictator, a cunning man like foxes, he can’t take this away from him, I’m sure the skirmish with the States is just another mnogohodovka for him, in the end he will throw the Russians again, only all the things he needs
          1. raki-uzo
            raki-uzo 22 March 2018 21: 45
            +1
            In your tone I will answer:
            - About alleged genocides (in fact, it was a resettlement - otherwise they would have been killed on the spot and not sent anywhere) Russia is to blame; they provoked them, promised a lot of things, while the Turkish soldiers were at the fronts staged a riot, so they were relocated to where not Arabs lived, but Arabs or Kurds to avoid the wrath of Turkish soldiers who learned about the death of their relatives from the hands of that people.
            “Kurds are not terrorists.” Apparently it’s hard for you to come, but the Kurds and I live peacefully.
            - You do not know anything about Cyprus at all, why do you want to poke your unclean nose there. Turkey is the guarantor with England and Greece (Zurich 11.02.1959). As long as there is a need, there will also be a Turkish base, as there are bases in England and Greece.
            - The European Union has not yet sent that previous amount. What are you talking about? In Turkey, live about 3.5 mil Syrians. For each, at least 1 spend a dollar a day, at least 1 dollar, and calculate how much will be in total ... no, it will be hard for you, don’t even try.
            “I don't like Erdogan as president.” I thank God (here God is not written with a capital letter, otherwise one came to you and tried to prove something) I have never voted for him and I will never. However, I don’t call someone else’s dog a dog if I don’t know what her name is, I’m calling a dog or a dog. You don’t understand it, it’s “not your level too much”.
            - When your generation leaves, we will be friends with Russia so, so friendly that everyone will envy. I live in Antalya, I have many friends from Russia, we often meet and talk not about politics, not about war, not about evil vindictive old negoys, but about the more pleasant - what to drink with fried fish, in which restaurant it is better to make kebap, How to drink moonshine, what kinds of snacks, how our joint children learn ... You know that we have 1 000 000 children already joint. Rather, that evil generation would have gone!
            1. russia2016
              russia2016 22 March 2018 22: 43
              +1
              What genocides are you talking about? Armenians, Greeks, millions were destroyed, or is it all untrue to you, when the whole world has already recognized this? I understand that this is an unpleasant topic for you, but Atatürk is no different from Hitler, Stalin or Pol Pot, this is a typical executioner dictator, by whose orders millions were cut out, so there is no need to tell tales about some kind of “relocations” there!

              And what we do not know about Cyprus, are you there guarantors of what, please explain? Turkey chopped off the floor of Cyprus, whom are you protecting there now, from whom, from the Cypriots, do not make me laugh, the same scenario will be in Syria.

              On the account of how you live peacefully with the Kurds, we see this very well, that's why Western journalists are arrested, they just have to put their nose in eastern Turkey where the Kurds live to see how you live there peacefully with them.

              At the expense of the money that Europe transfers, do you still have the conscience to stutter on this topic? It’s not known to you why they’re transferring billions, firstly, it was Turkey that was one of the main instigators of the war in Syria, and don’t have to blame everything on America, you wanted to drop Assad, you sponsored Isil and all kinds of Islamists there, Ertogan and his family made billions, then the Russians intervened, secondly the delays in the tranches that you are talking about are due to the fact that we in Europe are not at all sure where this money is going, it is quite possible that they are going to clean-up the same Kurds in Syria.

              We are not against the Turks, and not vindictive as you say, the more the concept of the Turkish nation as such does not exist, modern Turkey is a mixed nomad of Turkic-Mongols with the local population whom they enslaved, built on the remains of the ancient Byzantine empire which they actually destroyed. Modern residents of Turkey must respect other peoples and their neighbors, otherwise no one will respect you either!
              1. Ramzay121
                Ramzay121 23 March 2018 11: 40
                +1
                Russia2016 is already a diagnosis, and how do you live with this lie that you wrote.
  3. serriy
    serriy 22 March 2018 12: 26
    0
    "pro-Turkish formations", SSA, gangs, ....

    All this is for America’s money, all cash flows are controlled by America. Could ours demand to stop financing and supplying the entire bacchanalia. Methodically, constantly demand, through different channels. We will also find supporters who will join such a demand.
    А such a war will continue until paid. fool
    You can report victory many times, but hostilities will resume! It’s like tourist trips for all kinds of extreme jihadists, the tour operator is America, only the signs are different. hi
  4. gorenina91
    gorenina91 23 March 2018 04: 56
    0
    -Turkey again outwitted and beat everyone ... -Easy, without any losses, it took strategic territory .., did not destroy the scumbags and villains .., but simply intends to use and use them for their own purposes ... -And Turkey can now dictate to everyone their "rules of the game" ...
    -Really, Erdogan is a great politician, a talented adventurer and a visionary constructive strategist ... -He literally out of the blue he beat both Russia and the USA ... -Well, Turkey will always get along with the USA ... -And now how to be Russia. .? -Russia urgently needs to take some radical measures ... or not all the efforts and enormous funds spent by Russia will be simply meaningless ...
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