NATO leads Saakashvili by the nose
The turbulent romance of the Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili and the North Atlantic alliance, which had faded away, was unilaterally after the South Ossetian adventure of the Georgian leader, has every chance of inflaming new passions after the May summit of NATO to be held in Chicago. New tender feelings for the Georgian president and his overwhelming desire to join NATO arose among many NATO officials, with the clear and active support of the US State Department. The fact is that Mrs. Clinton during the Brussels meeting of foreign ministers of NATO member states and states that are willing to sleep at the front door of the Alliance, met with the head of Georgian diplomacy, during which a very remarkable document was born. This document is the first step towards the removal of all barriers to Georgia’s admission to NATO. Or, at least, the Americans themselves are trying to present this paper in this way ... In the document, the authors insist that Russia withdraw its military contingent from Abkhazia and South Ossetia and provide Tbilisi with the opportunity to resolve the issues of territorial integrity on its own. In addition to American support, Georgia was honored with flattering words from NATO Secretary General Mr. Rasmussen. He stated that he highly appreciates the assistance rendered to the North Atlantic Alliance by Georgian military units in counter-terrorism operations. And in order to finally hope for Mikhail Saakashvili and his active supporters, Rasmussen said that Georgia, perhaps, has never been so close to NATO as it is today. After the May summit, the NATO Secretary General promised to make a kind of “strong statement” on Georgia’s membership, which would literally turn the world ...
It should be noted that today the status of Georgia in relation to the North Atlantic Alliance is very blurred. Georgia itself, led by its leader, actively wants to be under the wing of Washington, Brussels and Euro-PRO. Many NATO members are also not opposed to inviting Mikhail Saakashvili to their undoubtedly friendly family. But there are a number of states (for example, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) that do not see prospects in accepting Georgia into the Alliance. It is this internal reticence and the presence of unresolved domestic issues in Georgia that prevent the Georgian president from riding on a white horse into the courtyard of the NATO headquarters in Brussels.
However, to say that Georgia in the foreseeable future will not become a member of NATO, the West also can not afford. And so that the Georgian leader was not completely disappointed, but at the same time he didn’t come too close, Brussels came up with an excellent formulation for the Georgian status: “Alliance graduate student country”. In other words, Saakashvili hints that at least a few few years will have to learn to become a candidate for membership first, and then, with good behavior, maybe there will be a chance to directly join.
The one who came up with the phrase “graduate student country” obviously needs to shake hands with creative thinking. Well, this should be so skillfully sent that the sender did not even understand that he was sent ...
Recall that today the candidates for joining NATO are Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia. It was candidates, not graduate students ... Until recently, Macedonia had the least chances among the indicated states to join the Alliance, which was blocked by Greece. But today Greece itself is far from being in the situation in which it is possible to dictate any conditions, so we can expect that NATO will expand once again precisely at the expense of these three Balkan republics.
Mikhail Saakashvili, in all likelihood, will have to go to the candidates for candidates ("graduate students") until the end of his presidency.
The Americans, who have once received a “gift” from the Georgian president in the form of provocation not fully agreed with the White House in South Ossetia, will now do everything to keep Georgia on a short, harsh leash. So that Saakashvili did not run far away (although where he will now run off), but he also didn’t get confused under his feet. This confirms the very document that was concocted with the active participation of Hillary Clinton: they say, let us order Russia to withdraw its troops from South Ossetia and Abkhazia. All the adequate people understand that Russia now will not derive its troops from these two Republics anywhere, but that’s adequate ...
Obviously, the American authorities themselves understand this, but somehow the Georgian leadership must be supported, so to speak, morally. Suppose, they say, in Tbilisi they think that before NATO only one step remains: the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of the unrecognized by Georgia independent states that emerged after Saakashvili’s provocation on its territory and the return entry of these states into Georgia. - And just that ... A sort of carrot that makes one famous animal walk along the same path as the driver.
And here the Georgian leader himself falls into a trap: due to the fact that Russia, naturally, will not withdraw its troops from Abkhazia and South Ossetia (at least in the next few years), the internal territorial conflict for Georgia will not be resolved. This means that “Old Europe” still will not vote for Georgia’s membership in NATO. It turns out that Tbilisi will have to abandon either its obsession with getting into the Alliance, or its territorial claims to Sukhum and Tskhinval. Obviously, neither the one nor the other is unacceptable today for Mikhail Saakashvili. After all, the current Georgian leader is pulling his country under the NATO wing in order to conduct another "victorious" war.
Let us try for a second to imagine what will happen if the NATO countries nevertheless express themselves in favor of being admitted to the Alliance of Georgia in its current state with its current president. Obviously, with all of his declared pacifism, Saakashvili will even draw on bringing constitutional order in South Ossetia or Abkhazia once again. And in this case, Russia will again have to "force peace" for the president, the "pacifist." And if so, then in the conflict, whether they want it or not, it will be necessary for other NATO states to intervene, because according to the Organization’s Charter, military action against one of the Alliance members (no matter who starts them) should be a military response from all member countries . Naturally, none of the sensible modern politicians will not allow Georgia to take advantage of its entry into NATO in order to draw the same Germans, French, Italians and Spaniards into the war against Russia. Of course, there are enough provocateurs in the European Union, but still a reasonable grain is present in the heads of the leaders of many states that belong to the North Atlantic Alliance.
It turns out that today NATO has to use the sweet roll method with respect to Georgia so that the “child” is not upset. In this regard, in a couple of years Brussels will have to come up with a new status for Georgia: for example, “almost membership” or “shortage” in order to continue to delay the date of the actual words pronounced in Georgian status for an indefinite period.
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