Military Review

Why did Americans lose the "peace", or Why did the United States need a slate revolution?

59



The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, in an interview with Reuters, said that, according to his estimates, the US will overtake Russia maximum in 2019 and become the world leader in oil production. On the one hand, you can be happy for our American "partners", but on the other - you can sympathize with them. After all, in fact, it is their defeat. And full and unconditional.

The fact is that the slate revolution in the United States happened by no means accidental and it was timed to a certain event, which did not happen (at least in any case).

The mechanism was launched about 20 years ago. Just at that time (as we found out last time) when the American elites, in order to try to maintain their dominant position, decided to set fire to Eurasia. Yes, these two events are very closely related, and this is why ...

Middle East - oil and gas tank and powder keg of Eurasia

So, Washington decided to pour blood on Eurasia, so that no one else in the foreseeable future could challenge its world domination. At the same time, the implementation of this plan concealed a number of problems for the American economy, the most important of which was the supply of the country with hydrocarbons.



It's been a while ago when the USA was the leader in oil production. At the turn of the millennium, it was they who became its biggest importers, which means that any crisis in the Persian Gulf region, which also affected Russia, could have catastrophic consequences for them. To avoid this, it was necessary to find urgently the sources of oil, and it was in the western hemisphere.

And he was found, and three at once.

None of you paid attention that all the "successful" shale projects, as well as the extraction of various "heavy" oil is concentrated exclusively in America? These are not only the US oil and gas shale fields, but also the colossal deposits of heavy oil from Venezuela, as well as the oil sands of Canada. Nowhere else in the world does anyone of such resources extract and gather. And not because they do not exist, but because, by and large, it does not make much sense. And before 2000-x was very unprofitable.

The rise in oil prices, and consequently of natural gas, since the very beginning of the 2000, still hits stock analysts. Everybody recognizes that the hydrocarbon market was artificially overheated, but few people are trying to understand the root causes of what happened.



And we will look at the consequences. It is blowing the bubble in the oil market that has made it possible to develop alternative projects for the production of hydrocarbons in the western hemisphere. And for today, taking into account the resources of Canada and Venezuela, the Americans have already achieved oil and gas independence from Eurasia, and this in itself is a very important moment.

Why is it important? Because, at the same time, the Americans had to achieve another important result of their diplomatic efforts. According to their plans, by now Eurasia would have to plunge into chaos. And she would have plunged into it, had it not been for Russia and its partners, who destroyed the American Middle Eastern plans.

What was this supposed to give Washington? But what ...

Survive the difficult years

In fact, the Americans have never planned to economically squeeze their oil shale in other countries. As already seen from the decline in the production of shale hydrocarbons 2015-16, this task is economically meaningless and it is even utopian in peacetime. But in the military, when the value of the resource and money is changing, it is the US shale, Canada's oil sands and Venezuela's heavy oil that were supposed to be the reservoirs that would allow the US to survive the difficult years painlessly. Those same ones, when they will create new orders in the world.

Why did Americans lose the "peace", or Why did the United States need a slate revolution?


The shale resources of the United States, which is today the main hope of Americans for oil independence, are not so great. For a couple of decades they will be enough, and then - everything. Either oil must be abandoned, or control over other sources of oil production must be returned. That is, we see that the slate cushion can work very long. In addition, the extraction of this resource can not be organized at the click of a finger. It requires a buildup (approximately 20 years), and therefore the calculation of the time when Americans have the opportunity to painlessly redraw the world for themselves, should have been very accurate.

A maximum of ten years after the American continent's exit into self-sufficiency.

And these ten years have already gone out. And we can see how clearly Washington brought out the Middle East crisis for this date. Does anyone else doubt that this was all a coincidence? Now you understand why Americans are so annoyed today. In fact, they did not break Syria, or even the Middle East. If the United States in the very near future does not come up with a fallback, then within ten years they will be guaranteed to lose the battle for peace. And this, as we see following the example of the Middle East, is a very difficult task. They “cooked” him for about 15 years.



In fact, Washington is already playing in time trouble. 10 years for the implementation of the new plan - it is very little. Moreover, all the players perfectly understand the situation in which the Americans found themselves and began to drift towards the new potential world leaders, which only aggravates the American difficulties.

We can say that the Americans have almost lost the game. Their oil and gas cushion will soon start to be blown away, the Eurasian fire by the efforts of Russia and China (and other countries of the region) has started to go out slowly even, but to go out. Other ideas are not yet visible, just as there is no other solution on the horizon (other than fossil fuels) to meet ever-increasing energy needs.

Summing-up

So, with the help of oil shale and heavy oil, the Americans built a closed system of supplying themselves with hydrocarbons, which was never used for its intended purpose. Today they are trying to restructure all this under the task of squeezing Russia out of the world oil and gas markets of the world, but, as we can see, this is very bad for the Americans. And in another way and could not be. Direct economic competition of conventional oil, they lose by the laws of the economy, and they were not able to isolate Russia politically.

On the contrary, the United States themselves in many ways became a threat to their former allies, the Saudis, which forced the latter to take an unprecedented step at the end of 2016, the oil agreement with Moscow, which recognized the new oil world order, where Russia would play the main violin.

In general, the world leadership in oil production is, of course, pleasant, but in this form it is just as useless for Americans as launching Ilona Mask into space.
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59 comments
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  1. Vard
    Vard 28 February 2018 05: 37
    +9
    Do not multiply the number of things beyond the necessary ... There are no plans there .. No sense ... They inflated a shale bubble ... It burst ... Until next time ...
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 28 February 2018 06: 21
      +4
      Interesting news that are already a hundred years old! Every schoolchild should know this, if he goes to our school, of courselol
      1. Abel
        Abel 1 March 2018 11: 46
        +2
        Not all people went to OUR schools. Secondly, do not compare our schools with modern
  2. samarin1969
    samarin1969 28 February 2018 07: 08
    +2
    For ten years, the United States may well bring many oil-producing countries under control. They have enough aircraft carriers for this ...
    And the author hints that Russia just needs to quietly (!) Wait for the "passing body of the enemy." ...
    1. dzen123
      dzen123 28 February 2018 12: 55
      +4
      Wait quietly? ... And if the "corpse of the enemy" does not sail? So the crossing was badly mined? Or were they "quietly waiting"?
      The author is just in the open and says that we must resist. In something, somewhere by ourselves, but better in bulk. Asia or Eurasia ... until even with Oceania. For while you "wait quietly" - they will burn at the neighbors' houses. Yes, and your house - there too.
  3. vlad007
    vlad007 28 February 2018 07: 10
    +2
    The Americans lowered the price of oil and this is the main result of the production of shale oil.
    1. antivirus
      antivirus 28 February 2018 09: 18
      +2
      supporters of friendship with business and China and opponents of it simply shared money in the United States. these have different sources and flows of money.
      There is always a struggle in invest banks: “all 100% for themselves” or “fraternally” to share with the allies, but they don’t feed the extra ones there. we sat on the side on a very small patch and then we will modestly smile. till
    2. Mikhail3
      Mikhail3 28 February 2018 15: 48
      +4
      The Americans lowered the price of oil and this is the main result of the production of shale oil.
      The Americans RISED the price of oil to 100 green and higher. After that, the promotion of the shale industry became profitable, which they did. Now oil is hanging around much more real 60 greens, but in general it shouldn't cost more than 40.
      1. Abel
        Abel 1 March 2018 11: 48
        +1
        Why shouldn’t it? And keep in mind: it’s one thing to lie in the sun and wait for a banana to fall on your head, and it’s completely different to grow watermelons in Valaam
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 28 February 2018 07: 16
    +6
    The more Americans puff up to maintain their power in the world, the more they come across Russia and China, the more they make mistakes. All would be nothing, because their mistakes are in our hands, but as a result of these mistakes, hundreds of thousands of people die and some countries turn into a hotbed of banditry.
    1. Abel
      Abel 1 March 2018 11: 50
      +2
      So for that, the Americans are "puffing". They themselves are reluctant to fight, so they are looking for banderlogs who can be sacrificed for their own well-being. The first - Ukrainians, then - all of Europe
  5. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 28 February 2018 07: 37
    +10
    The author gave an extremely interesting interpretation of events. In many ways, one can agree, except for one. There are no one to implement such long-playing plans there. Rather, it is a natural development of technology. The oil bubble was inflated - financiers, and previously unprofitable projects became profitable ... Cheap money (low borrowing percentage) went there. Production began to grow. Then the mechanism worked (the bubble burst, and it helped a little) and the oil producers rallied against a sharp drop in prices. The unnatural union of the Sauddites and Russia HAS HAPPENED. An attempt to oust imported oil from the market of America (USA) even now failed. At the peak of production. But the cost of credit in the United States began to grow ...
    1. Mikhail3
      Mikhail3 28 February 2018 16: 03
      +5
      Your reasoning is based on the fact that the US is governed by the president. Well, Trump tried to lean a little out of the rut. How is it? The United States is governed by oligarchic cryptocracy, with the support of the peculiar structure described by Heinlein in Star Monster. By the way, the book is an input portal to this governing structure for smart enough and motivated teenagers. What partially ensures the highest quality of the management structure, which is absolutely inaccessible to us.
      You describe a scenario that only happens in a speculative market. There are no “throwings” that are decades long and cost hundreds of billions swollen into shale mining and processing equipment. The existence of classical HSE capitalism is generally impossible in reality, its planning horizon is negligible, and investment in modern processing of anything is very, very long.
      The author describes a very viable situation. I personally think that it is so. Oligarchic families do not depend on elections (jokes), and their decisions are often laid for centuries to come. And these decisions are made and implemented with the help of the managers of that very structure - people of the highest qualifications and huge minds. Moreover, these enchanting pros do not need to grimace at the voters ...
      Sometimes they don’t get it. Putin and his analysts turned out to be cooler at this moment. Well, these people won't cry into the corner. They now have two options. The first is to write off losses! They can, and easily. There are so many green wrappers printed that a trillion more, a trillion less ... you just have to carry out some cleanups on Fed papers and files. And the second is to raise rates. If a bunch of firewood refuses to catch fire, why not pour gas on it? For example, some terrorists will destroy Israel with an atomic bomb. Or in Germany, a massacre will begin. Or ... In general, there are a lot of options.
    2. Mih1974
      Mih1974 28 February 2018 18: 45
      +5
      I want to agree with you on Zadornov "Americans are dumb", but that's just a "shale project", they are clearly not the only one. The mentioned Mask is also very indicative !! All sane people understand that he is a balabol, "pop Gapon" or "glove doll" on the puppeteer's hand. Who asked "what is your evidence?" lol but what kind of ones - everywhere it’s pervasive (And there’s no other word for it) electric cars, BUT - they are technologically more energy-consuming than direct oil ones (do not find fault). I mean the whole chain of creating and "feeding" ordinary mobiles and electro, and these are not my words, these are the words of respected (not "authoritative") people, specialists in their fields.
      That is, "someone" is forcibly imposing the World, read how many free electric charging stations have already been poked (yet), namely the infrastructure and the ideology of electric vehicles. But recently I came across an article from miners and ore beneficiation - that there is no planet on Earth and there is NO chance that it would be possible to ensure the replacement of existing mobile phones with electric ones due to a lack of lithium, beryllium pain, in general, "not the point". To summarize - Musk and the one who controls it "shoves the inedible" negative . And this is despite the fact that energy consumption in general is growing like an avalanche on the planet (I didn’t say the same thing) and by 2030 it is expected to double consumption from belay .
      I can’t understand this a bit - or someone has (already) miniature thermonuclear reactors a la Tony Stark (long live the fallout)

      Or is it a divorce of suckers a la SOI. negative
      The fact that the mattress country can survive the crisis and will certainly rise above the rest of the World only if the WHOLE World is in ruins while they are "crisis" - many respected have been writing for a long time. About the fact that shale is not a revolution (it was generally thought to be mined in the USSR), not a panacea, everyone knows.
      And here I honestly can’t challenge the author - the Merikas snapped their epic plan to maintain world domination. C'mon, here we are "pique vests", but let THEIR prez Trump under what slogan went to the White House - "We will make America great AGAIN !!" belay .How is it "AGAIN", and where did I go when you stopped being great?
      1. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 1 March 2018 16: 36
        +2
        Quote: Mih1974
        Under what slogan Trump went to the White House - "We will make America great AGAIN !!"

        This is just agitation. Not related to business and plans. Although cryptocracy takes care of its population seriously. It's just ... In general, I wrote an article about development like that. The approach to care and direction may be different. And American oligarchs consider their people to be children. And beloved children!
        Well, you know how mothers love their kids before they turn off the brain? Do not run, beat your knee! Don’t think, the headache will hurt! That's about this. So the Americans are stupid. They can. They will be taken care of, even if they do a lobotomy for themselves (at one time, by the way, they did it en masse).
        And the network of gas stations is an interesting topic. As for Tony Stark, he just needs no refueling at all. Precisely because he has a mini-reactor. There is either a reactor or a gas station. But if there is no reactor, but there is some technology for packaging electricity that is not related to the battery deadlock that is modern for us, then yes. Has the meaning.
        But. Take advantage of an interesting task, train your brain. Why will super-dense packaging of electricity lead to a series of wars that will wipe our civilization from the face of the earth? The question is not so complicated.
  6. xtur
    xtur 28 February 2018 08: 42
    +4
    Well done Jura, a very interesting guess.
    But the American still has the possibility of setting Eurasia on fire - these are Kurds and Turks. The true owners of the Kurdish territories, about 70% of their most important, are Armenians. The Kurdish factor cannot be controlled without the involvement of Armenians.
    But no one wants this, because the anti-Kursk coalition, for the most part, consists of countries that either directly committed the Armenian Genocide (Turkey and Iran), for which they did not suffer any punishment, or indulged him, for which they were not punished. That is, it will be impossible to resist the Kurdish factor, Turkey will explode, and will blow up all the world Turks, on which it has a huge influence. So without a huge war the situation will not do.
    It’s like the WWII, when there was no justice on either side, and when most of the world, except the Anglo-Saxons, did not want this war, and resisted its beginning, but the war nevertheless began, and was extremely bloody.
    1. xtur
      xtur 28 February 2018 18: 44
      +2
      I want to add one very important point regarding the Turks and Kurds. No one knows for sure how the Kurds arose, when they arose, whose heir they are, and why there are so many of them today - after all, these territories have always been crowded, and even after the Armenians were carved, the Kurds should not have become the most numerous ethnic group of these places.
      There is a feeling that they wrote to the Kurds, as they write to members of any organization.

      This can definitely be said about the Turks themselves - DNA analysis showed that the DNA of their ancestors, the Oghuz, is about 15%, the Armenian and Greek DNA in the Turks is about 10%, that is, if you take the DNA, the descendants of the Oghuz are 15% , another 20% are descendants of Armenians and Greeks, and the rest, most of them are descendants of unidentified local residents.
      That is, the Turk is like a citizen of a multinational state, he is not held together by blood, not by common behavior, etc., but by a certain cultural component that can be destroyed - with the application of effort. And the Americans are masters of sawing up nations - see the example of the Serbs, from which they created as many as 4 nations - Croats, Bosnians and Montenegrins, and to create new, fake.
      That is, in the confrontation between the Kurds and the anti-Kurdish coalition, the outcome is not at all predetermined and depends on the use of such humanitarian technologies in which the Anglo-Saxons are unsurpassed masters
  7. SPACE
    SPACE 28 February 2018 08: 54
    +13
    The main killer of the world order wound up by the United States and as such the West as a whole is Asia, countries such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia all together they are a giant factory, in these countries there is a positive trade surplus, which means that they are most successful including technologically, and have a development potential, which allows them to successfully compete and collect markets everywhere, even in Europe and the USA (for this reason they are unprofitable and in debt), this is a powerful and irreversible trend. But Asian economies need resources and hydrocarbons to continue commodity expansion. Actually, all American games around oil and gas are relatively peaceful attempts to stifle or stop this negative trend for them. The problem is that it’s not enough for the United States to simply manage this market, with any option of price regulation, it’s bad that the economy of Asia grows stronger with the low cost of oil, Russia with a high cost, this also affects the United States and its allies in Asia and finally they will not succeed in taking this market under compulsory, not economic control. Three options remain. First total war in Asia. The second new source of energy. The third is to come to terms with the obvious state of things and become yet another Brazil, with the subsequent natural transformation of the economic and political space of the world.
    Z.Y. Once Russia supported the struggle for the independence of the Asian peoples and killed the British colonial world. Today, Asian-grown tigers are destroying the American order, the prototype of the modern new economic neocolonialism.
    1. businessv
      businessv 28 February 2018 14: 17
      +3
      Quote: SPACE
      The main killer of the world order wound up by the United States and as such the West as a whole is Asia,

      Neither add nor decrease, bravo! Thanks to Yura for the article, conducting an educational program. wink
    2. Mih1974
      Mih1974 28 February 2018 18: 51
      +5
      At the same time, look at the pathetic attempts by the US to "return production." Yes, low tax rates are good, but are they already lower than in China? And what about environmental standards, and American workers are ready to lower their incomes to the Chinese level, and what will happen to the American economy if they lower workers' wages - WHO will buy in stores? Remember how Ben Bernanki jokingly suggested, “Let me fly a helicopter and throw packs of dollars so that people buy more”? I'm not saying that foolish capitalists in Asia managed to create production clusters, and cunning Asians built up copies of their plants at the same time and now it’s not possible to “take apart and take away” them from the merikas. tongue And what kind of whole ass is the whole world after China has concentrated 95% of the world capacity for enrichment (production) of rare earths uuuu negative laughing
  8. dzen123
    dzen123 28 February 2018 09: 23
    +8
    Article plus for the general direction. No, not for "when the dollar will collapse and the US will end", but for assessing geopolitical trends over the past 15-20 years.
    In addition, Yuri, maybe this is not in your plans. But I want to ask you to consider this issue "deeper and wider," as the classics said. Let it be a series of articles. But it is important to include a reference point here - the collapse of the USSR. The overall reaction of the Western economy to this event. What the collective West has done with its fuel and energy complex over the past 30 years and what actions it has taken around the world. Not only with oil, but also with atom, coal, and even with alt-sources of energy. How did this affect various world regions (in general), wars, Western interventions, etc.
    Agree - take away the "phase" and "zero" from modern civilization - the times of "King Peas" will come true. Even the lack of gasoline / diesel the modern world will survive, albeit painfully, but survive. But take away electricity - this is a decline 200 to 300 years ago with the "bloody meat grinder" in many regions of the world for the remaining water and food resources.
    And yes. If you back up your articles with “digital” - only a plus.
    1. marline
      marline 28 February 2018 11: 30
      +3
      Quote: dzen123
      Agree - take away the "phase" and "zero" from modern civilization - the times of "King Peas" will come true.

      That's for sure. All industrialization became possible thanks to two inventions: N. Tesla’s alternator and M.O. Dolivo-Dobrovolsky.
    2. Mih1974
      Mih1974 28 February 2018 18: 57
      +2
      And year after year, no matter what, crises, shmises - the consumption of petarism is growing like an avalanche. How much they sing to us the "digital economy" which will "save Russia", and according to rumors in the US, these "digital technologies" are the main consumer of petricheria belay request . That's how it happened, immeasurably devouring all kinds of data centers and all kinds of computer crap.
      In fact, without deception, we’ll even collapse below “King Pea” sad , the fact is that behind electricity the crops simply collapse monstrously and fairy tales about the “Holodomor” seem like “Easter chants”. On top of this, the overwhelming pandemic of "ordinary" diseases, which are not controlled by more megotons of antibiotics, I advise you to read what is "Spaniard" (not a resident of Spain) and you will be VERY scared.
  9. geniy
    geniy 28 February 2018 09: 25
    +3
    No other ideas have yet been seen, as it is not visible on the horizon and other (except for fossil fuels) solutions to meet the ever-increasing energy needs.

    The author is completely mistaken, as if the American government had conceived and carried out a thoughtful scam with shale oil. In fact, this appeared as a result of the usual development of new technologies. Many do not understand the simple fact that it is the appearance of new technologies that gives impetus to the development of mankind. For example, when Tokarev was given a topic for a diploma on how military requirements give impetus to the development of military equipment, he realized that the question was turned upside down: in fact, the invention of new models of military equipment gives impetus to the development of tactics of military operations. But in the peaceful sphere in the same way. And the fact that the author (as well as millions of other people) does not see new ideas for the development of energy is his difficulties. I personally see. At the bottom of the ocean there are huge reserves of methane crystalline hydrates. And yet, when huge pressure is removed from them by rising from the ocean depths to the surface, these crystalline hydrates themselves turn into a wonderful combustible methane gas. And in order to extract them from the bottom, it is enough to drill a well and supply warm water to it (heated combustion of the same methane) and then methane itself will rise to the surface through a parallel pipe. And then methane can be turned into gasoline, kerosene and any other substances - including plastics. I came up with such a technology (but I don’t have the money to implement this yet). And most importantly, I believe that it is necessary to completely stop or reduce hydrocarbons by humanity. It is necessary to use wind energy. What I’m working on is to repeatedly reduce the cost of energy received from the wind, and so that big and small windmills stand everywhere.
    1. marline
      marline 28 February 2018 11: 25
      +3
      Quote: geniy
      And the fact that the author (as well as millions of other people) does not see new ideas for the development of energy is his difficulties.

      Here are all stupid! Well, then ...
    2. flicker
      flicker 28 February 2018 13: 31
      +2
      For example, when Tokarev was given a topic for a diploma on how requirements Military give impetus to development military equipment, then he realized that the question was turned upside down
      Well, if so: " the demands of life give impetus to the development of technology"- is the question posed upside down?
    3. Alexey-74
      Alexey-74 28 February 2018 14: 01
      0
      I suggest you take the place of Chubais ...... maybe you can succeed!
    4. Mih1974
      Mih1974 28 February 2018 19: 02
      +2
      fool God - sprinkle a comrade haloperod and more more. negative What a replacement for the wind of the oil industry, even if the whole planet is poked with "windmills" there will be a big ass. You don’t have enough of the “river turning” project, they have already plunged into the Earth until the Red Book can already be massively killed, and not just hit on the head with people like you. How the hell are gas hydrates (essentially) different from ordinary gas pipelines or even shale? - only by mining method fool
    5. Starlei.ura
      Starlei.ura 28 February 2018 23: 10
      +2
      The inventor first look at the methane hydrate formula, and then heat it. Bo 3,14 will come so that no one will seem.
    6. alex_a_54
      alex_a_54 1 March 2018 02: 14
      +2
      "... so that big and small windmills stand everywhere ..."

      What do you think, the energy that "windmills" take away from moving air masses is superfluous from planet Earth? Your "windmills" continuously reduce the enthalpy of air in the Earth’s atmosphere and increase its entropy (no one has yet canceled the laws of thermodynamics). You will be surprised, but "windmills", like solar panels, directly take part of the solar energy from planet Earth. If electricity goes to kettles and other heating elements, this is not so bad, and if to trams and other “self-running” mechanisms, this is largely due to the cooling of the planet ...
  10. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov 28 February 2018 09: 32
    0
    Well, Yuri, you can write a little adequate articles, without aspiration according to Putin! wink
    1. SPACE
      SPACE 28 February 2018 10: 23
      +4
      Quote: andrej-shironov
      Well, Yuri, you can write a little adequate articles, without aspiration according to Putin!

      Do you see Putin? Not. But he is! laughing
      Putin is a cyclone, it is the north wind of Borey, the creator of the weather in the geopolitical climate of the world.
      1. BAI
        BAI 28 February 2018 11: 47
        +1
        Indirectly, he is present unequivocally:
        In fact, they didn’t Syria and not even the Middle East.
      2. andrej-shironov
        andrej-shironov 28 February 2018 16: 41
        0
        smile Exactly! Better weather the weather, but not Russia.
  11. Berber
    Berber 28 February 2018 09: 40
    +3
    I like the article. Very logical. At least all the trends in the world and the growing hysteria from the "West" indicate that the author is right. Break away from the details and the picture coincides.
  12. cats
    cats 28 February 2018 11: 56
    +4
    Everything broke off about three letters ... HPP.
    Yuri take pity on our weepers, or at least not so often shake the salt shaker .. hi
  13. groks
    groks 28 February 2018 12: 27
    +2
    Misunderstood. Is there no war in Syria? The USA did not eat Libya and Iraq? Now they are not sitting in the same Syria tightly?
    The author composes fairy tales. In general, there is an opinion that the "successes" of the shale were, in fact, ISIS unaccounted for. Well, actually - if the USA creates and supports a certain group, then why not ask for a little oil in return?
  14. bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 28 February 2018 12: 40
    +1
    The main thing is that the Russian leadership understands the whole alignment of Anglo-Saxon global intrigues.
  15. dgonni
    dgonni 28 February 2018 12: 59
    +2
    The author is just raving. Here is Syudymts tyts (http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/birzhevyye-tovary/d
    obycha-nefti-v-ssha-vyshla-na-rekord-za-50-let-10
    14801570). And all the questions disappear. At the moment, the profitability of shale oil production is 35 killed raccoons. So the cost of oil in the same 60 raccoons even pays off. If my memory serves me, then the cost of oil production in Siberia by the classical method is also within these limits. So voila, purely business and no politics. And finally, the author needed to ask for wind and solar energy in Europe. Last year, Germany in the month of July was provided with such energy by 60%. Well, all of a sudden.
    1. Alexey RA
      Alexey RA 28 February 2018 13: 15
      +8
      Quote: dgonni
      And finally, the author needed to ask for wind and solar energy in Europe. Last year, Germany in the month of July was provided with such energy by 60%. Well, all of a sudden.

      What specifically was provided by 60% of wind and solar energy? Electricity poured into the tanks of cars? Or were plastics and other petrochemical products made from it? wink
      The main consumers of oil are motor vehicles and petrochemicals. The energy industry is far behind in this list: it consumes gas, coal and woodworking waste, and oil products for it are usually reserve fuel.
      Quote: dgonni
      At the moment, the profitability of shale oil production is 35 killed raccoons.

      35 evergreens - this is not profitability, but the cost of one barrel of shale oil. Moreover, it is not clear which of the costs was meant.
      I remember a comparison of the cost of LNG and pipeline gas, when the price for LNG was taken at the terminal in the USA, and for the price of pipeline gas - the price for the end user. smile
      1. MadCat
        MadCat 28 February 2018 15: 54
        +1
        Quote: Alexey RA
        Electricity poured into the tanks of cars? Or were plastics and other petrochemical products made from it? wink

        that's exactly what one of the main consumers is affftamaaaabil! .... and they in Europe will not soon be left with ICE.
        1. Yuriy_999
          Yuriy_999 2 March 2018 23: 28
          0
          In order to transfer half of the vehicles to electrics, it is necessary to raise the generation of electricity by about half. Due to what? Efficiency of power plants + Efficiency of an electric vehicle is not much higher, and maybe even lower than the efficiency of an aircraft engine. Green energy is much more expensive than traditional, and its problems are rampant. Take an interest in how the transfer of the area in Australia to "greenback" ended.
      2. Mih1974
        Mih1974 28 February 2018 19: 08
        +3
        Dear don't scare the fool lol and then suddenly you still write to him that the energy cost of the “wind kilowatt” is much higher than oil. These "spectators of the illusionist" and adepts of alternative energies have always scoffed at me; fool
        Such "oh this is the Wizard he has rabbits APPEAR in a hat", and they don’t want to understand that the Rabbit was growing somewhere on the farm for a long time and now he was "put" into the hat from under the floor, no "Germany is switching to alternative energy sources.
  16. Kornvoli
    Kornvoli 28 February 2018 13: 58
    +5
    Oh, these world conspiracies. ;) Everything is much simpler.
    All this shale revolution became possible with the coincidence of the development of hydraulic fracturing technology, cheap credit and the necessary oil price. Three of these factors turned out to be enough to stir the hairy tentacles of greedy capitalists in no way connected with the "Conspiracies". With the fall in oil prices and more expensive loans, all this immediately became unprofitable.
    The US is engaged in the Middle East densely, not depending on its own oil.
    Do not look for the Schrödinger cat in the black room. )
    1. SPACE
      SPACE 28 February 2018 14: 48
      +3
      Quote: KornVoli
      Everything is much simpler.
      All this shale revolution became possible with the combination of the development of hydraulic fracturing technology, cheap credit and the necessary oil price.

      Conjuncture? Listed by you is just a consequence, or if you want a response to other, larger-scale events.
    2. Mih1974
      Mih1974 28 February 2018 19: 10
      +2
      Yes, and Hitler came to power "he himself" and "he conquered Europe and attacked the USSR", yes yes - we believe. Of course, no megotons of dough were poured into it and "pushed." And having blatantly sailed in Dunkirk “by chance” and “miraculously” and not by Hitler’s direct order, hundreds of thousands were “saved”. fool
  17. wachmann
    wachmann 28 February 2018 14: 24
    +1
    it is not necessary to conduct calculations on $ -ra, then everything will fall into place
  18. tforik
    tforik 28 February 2018 14: 29
    0
    Quote: dzen123
    Agree - take away the "phase" and "zero" from modern civilization - the times of "King Peas" will come true. Even the lack of gasoline / diesel the modern world will survive, albeit painfully, but survive. But take away electricity - this is a decline 200 to 300 years ago with the "bloody meat grinder" in many regions of the world for the remaining water and food resources.


    Switch to direct current + and -. This is of course laborious, but obviously not the phase of the king of peas))
  19. glum
    glum 28 February 2018 17: 28
    +1
    Quote: dgonni
    The author is just raving. Here is Syudymts tyts (http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/birzhevyye-tovary/d
    obycha-nefti-v-ssha-vyshla-na-rekord-za-50-let-10
    14801570). And all the questions disappear. At the moment, the profitability of shale oil production is 35 killed raccoons. So the cost of oil in the same 60 raccoons even pays off. If my memory serves me, then the cost of oil production in Siberia by the classical method is also within these limits. So voila, purely business and no politics. And finally, the author needed to ask for wind and solar energy in Europe. Last year, Germany in the month of July was provided with such energy by 60%. Well, all of a sudden.

    I read that the cost of production in Siberia is about 20 dollars. So there is much to strive for wink and as regards renewable energy sources - they are mainly used by electrician production, but again, rare earth minerals are needed for the same solar panels, and their production is carried out by gasoline / diesel powered equipment, so we can’t get far from oil, we can unless to reduce gradually consumption.
  20. Kornvoli
    Kornvoli 28 February 2018 17: 48
    0
    Quote: SPACE
    Conjuncture? Listed by you is just a consequence, or if you want a response to other, larger-scale events.


    Slightly open the mysterious curtain and shed light on those "Events of the Big Scale" which led to the shale revolution in the USA
    1. SPACE
      SPACE 28 February 2018 19: 51
      +3
      In the USSR, all deposits were divided, using copper as an example, into three categories, less than 2% off-balance, up to the best or when it’s completely shit, times shorter than low margins, over 5% strategic reserves were preserved in case of war and those deposits that were taken into development.
      The Americans practically pumped out all of their light oil, and bought strategic reserves and stored in storage, if something is enough for a month, maybe a little more. In short, a scribe, and what kind of hegemony without oil can be discussed here, atomic aircraft carriers will not help. It was from such a not very good prospect that we were forced to start developing production technologies in oil shale, as a reserve, and only then we decided to use it to play all-in in geopolitical interests, as the author indicates. By the way, in the same ancient USSR, back in 1952, they did hydraulic fracturing and even cooler to increase the flow rate of the wells, they shredded the shale with an underground thermonuclear charge, there was such a program for using the atom for peaceful purposes that it was a thousand times more effective than hydraulic fracturing, but the USSR, like today in Russia, is still not necessary.
      1. Kornvoli
        Kornvoli 28 February 2018 22: 47
        0
        You are clearly not aware of the US strategic oil reserve and its volumes. Month))) Carl.
        SPR reserves are only legally required for at least 90 days, but in reality, including private storage facilities, there are many more.
        For a second, some US shale deposits have been developed for about two centuries.
        It can be seen from the 1820s and this "Conspiracy" was born. The creation of the SPR and the active development of oil shale began after the crisis of 73-74. But the trouble is only when the hydraulic fracturing technology allowed to drastically reduce the gigantic consumption of water, only then everything started spinning in full.

        There is no conspiracy there and never has been. The fact that the Americans want to control the Middle East. And who does not want? Russia also wants China too. Since ancient Egypt, everyone wants to. It is painful for this region to have a gorgeous location and the imprint of this matrix, it will bear all the time until the continents are dispersed again, and then there is oil and gas.
        The fact that the author of the article links the 20-year US oil profit with the events in the Greater Middle East is complete nonsense. Yes, they are there and will be there, but this is not unconnected with the shale revolution in the USA itself.
        1. SPACE
          SPACE 1 March 2018 09: 50
          +3
          Quote: KornVoli
          You are clearly not aware of the US strategic oil reserve and its volumes. Month))) Carl.
          SPR reserves are only legally required for at least 90 days, but in reality, including private storage facilities, there are many more.

          Data on the strategic reserves of any country is usually classified information, there are rumors, analytics, expert estimates, etc., the real volume of reserves is not known to anybody, but from the known, there are figures of the minimum possible reserve, which in no way proves its real availability. Real reserves, according to various estimates by American experts, vary from year to year in different ways and range from month to six months, it depends on many factors and calculation methods, wars, natural disasters, so it’s pointless to state anything, even if we accept your assessment, it absolutely does not change anything.
          Quote: KornVoli
          There is no conspiracy there and never was

          What does the plot have to do with it, I didn’t even stutter about it, there are banal interests and problems of the country and, accordingly, ways, methods or plans if you want to solve them. Everything! I argue that the impetus for the intensive development of off-balance shale waste was given by a lack of oil in the USA in connection with the 73 oil crisis of the year when the OPEC countries introduced an embargo on oil supplies and Nixon, the then President of the United States even urged the Americans to save fuel, use less car, even airlines have reduced their flights. And it was only then, after that, already at the state level in the USA that a strategic oil reserve was created in the amount of at least 3 of the monthly reserve. Although in truth, he was before that, but such attention was not paid to him. From 40x to 70x, Americans provided themselves with 80% oil produced in the United States by 50%, and after oil imports exceeded XNUMX% and only thanks to the shale today they stabilized the situation for themselves and even decided to play shale poker. Those. Once again, in this case, not the technologies were the primary reason for the development of shales, they were before that, and it was the lack of oil that helped tackle the development of shales and improved the technology for their production.
          1. Kornvoli
            Kornvoli 1 March 2018 13: 49
            +2
            Well then. Thanks again for the historical background. It is very floating with you, however, like the flag of the country from which you write either the United States or Great Britain. Probably travel a lot. ;)
            I guess I will have to give you a historical reference. Apparently without it in any way.
            The technologies of fracking and horizontal multi-hole drilling have been known since the 50s. Alexander Grigoryan from Bashkiria. Hello USNTU !!!
            In the USA, it started in the 70s. Independent, private companies began trying to produce GAS and only 30 years later they started commercial production in 2007-2008 when the gas price reached its maximum. Note about oil and there was no talk. But it happened, what happened. In 2008-09, gas prices collapsed, but the price of oil rose to 100-120 dollars. Since the United States had at that time about 60% of all drilling rigs in the world, the Shale Revolution began here.
            A clean economy and no conspiracy from the evil eye and unhappy love. There were no stratagems there. Private capital is entirely involved in this. This is the point.
            Now about world evil.
            Note that at least some economic benefit is possible only at 70-80 dollars, otherwise it all rises dead stake or stagnates. Plus, the development of easily accessible deposits in 5-10 years is almost complete. For obvious reasons, American LNG, besides the USA and Ukraine itself, is of no use to anyone at such prices. From here, Trump and him will return all production to America again. The United States is not just profitable 80-100 bucks, but vital. Here, all the “woes of experts” immediately begin to link this with the US invasion of the Middle East. In style, we will break everything there and oil prices will skyrocket. Only oil and gas prices are mainly formed not by this, but by the needs of the economies of consumer countries. And something they did not take off. Control over the BBV will be divided among themselves by China, the USA, Russia and the OAU-Turkey to a lesser extent. At the same time, Russia, China and Iran are becoming situational partners. But Turkey and the OAU are no longer just looking towards this coalition, realizing that the former hegemon is not so strong and does not want to share gingerbread.
            America has driven itself into zugzwang. The notorious 20 years about which everyone writes and refers is not the American 20 years, but ours, the Russian. Exactly so much with the current growth in hydrocarbon production, experts devote our "easily extracted" resources, despite the fact that almost all financial injections have been made. We can sit quietly until the 25th year, not rocking with such prices at 40-60 S, but the USA and the OAU are not. Any subsequent move leads to a deterioration in their situation. Hence the hysteria and sanctions, and Putin is great and terrible. The increase in hydrocarbon prices leads the United States to make Russia with its low ruble immediately fatten and invest in new developments and exploration of its shelves, shales and infrastructure.
            The 21st century is the century of resources, no matter what the digital economy is.
            Our reserves of offshore and shale deposits are much larger than those of the United States, but we have been sanctioned and so on. We ourselves, alas, no longer make equipment for mining, but this is fixable and everything is aimed at it. Our development of the Arctic has not just begun. While they are breaking the Chinese access to the EU via the Red Sea. We kill two birds with one stone by making the northern route through the Arctic for Chinese goods to Europe and jointly reviving the great silk road (it’s always good to sit in transit). The Nord Stream is almost, almost. Gas through Turkey is in process, contracts are signed with China, pipes stretch, gears spin.
            1. Town Hall
              Town Hall 1 March 2018 14: 01
              0
              Quote: KornVoli
              But it happened, what happened. In 2008-09, gas prices collapsed, but the price of oil rose to 100-120 dollars.



              Could you give more details from this moment? ... about how gas prices collapsed in 2008-9 ... how much it cost before the collapse, how much after ... how long the collapse lasted .... very interesting
  21. shinobi
    shinobi 2 March 2018 04: 22
    +1
    The reason seems to me to be lying in a slightly different plane. There’s simply no one else to rob. And those whom I would like to rob, Russia and China, are armed to the teeth and can firmly push their faces in the face. The Great War did not start until, to write off debts does not work.
  22. Snail N9
    Snail N9 2 March 2018 11: 22
    0
    Um ... well, good. Let the Americans want war in “Eurasia” 20 years ago — they planned everything else. But then the question arises: with whom is the warrior, then? Whom and with whom? Or all countries at once among themselves? 20 years ago, Russia was a miserable conglomerate of "regions" that are about to fall apart or become completely dependent on the United States, what's the point of a "war"? If China is meant, then the Chinese really do not want to fight and it is difficult to promote them in a war game, and Russia will remain as a supplier and others. If you count on war now ... then a very interesting picture emerges - it turns out that the Americans bring power to the GDP, so that he begins to turn Russia into an aggressor country, the scarecrow of all "democratic" humanity and then unleashes a war between Europe and Russia-type Americans are delivering a preemptive strike against “threatening” Russia through Europe, or at the hands of “Europeans,” Russians are wetting Europeans, and missiles flying toward the United States are being shot down by the American missile defense system. Russia and Europe are annihilating in nuclear fire, while the United States remains “on its own” and "in chocolate". So what? It turns out that the US is playing along with the US, how is their "Cossack"? In-author gives-revealed the entire so-called "cunning" plan .... winked
  23. Felixsoft
    Felixsoft 2 March 2018 14: 46
    +1
    According to data released by Rystad Energy, the United States has the highest reserves of proven oil and more than 50% of them are shale.

    So, according to agency estimates, the US reserves are 264 billion barrels of oil, Russia is in second place with 256 billion barrels of oil, while Saudi Arabia is 44 billion barrels behind our country.

    However, so far the cost of producing “black gold” in the United States remains higher than in Russia and the Gulf countries. But if in 2014 the profitability of extracting shale oil from the bowels of America was estimated at 50 - 80 dollars per barrel, then this year it dropped to 23,35 dollars per barrel.
    1. Felixsoft
      Felixsoft 2 March 2018 14: 48
      +1
      The fact that the current quotes are comfortable, is also indicated by the data of the US Department of Energy - production growth was outlined at the 2 largest shale oil fields. In November, the Permian basin is planned to produce about 2 million barrels per day.

      Summary

      Usually, “price wars” do not lead to anything good, and, most often, those who started them were the ones to lose. Saudi Arabia, together with its allies, won only a few percent of market share, but lost more than a trillion dollars due to low oil prices.

      Having realized this, Riyadh will most likely begin to take steps to stabilize the oil market, and subsequently increase quotes for “black gold”.