Military Review

China: a lot of movies and little girls

I. Joy instead of fear

If in the 2010 year, amid the effects of the global economic crisis, it was customary to admire China’s economy — and to be afraid of it — then in the 2012 year, when China’s GDP growth slowed down a bit, it became fashionable to blow not only “some reduction” in Chinese GDP growth rates , but even about the "recession."

Trumpet solo in the orchestra of the grave-diggers of the Chinese economic miracle is performed by America. It would seem, not to Americans who have 11 million mortgage borrowers in the US - bank debtors, whose fate hangs in the balance, and at least five thousand people already live in tents, to criticize the decline in the Chinese real estate market. However - criticized.

For example, American Los Angeles Times April 13 put on the front page of a large article by David Pearson “The Chinese economy slowed down to the slowest growth rate of the year 3”.

The author writes that the overheated Chinese economy cooled down in the first quarter of this year to the slowest growth rate in the last three years due to a decrease in export demand and a decline in the real estate market.

The gross domestic product of the PRC grew by 8,1% in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2011. Such data led the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the journalist said. A comparison is made with 8,9% growth in the fourth quarter of last year and it is reported that this indicator is “below the expectations of many analysts”. A hasty conclusion is immediately made: a similar indicator can “irritate investors”, and also be the reason for a “hard landing” of the second largest economy in the world, which has shown high growth rates for several years before. The journalist refers to unnamed "economists" who claim that "a recession may spiral out of control depending on how severe the European debt crisis will be" and on what will be "the results of a two-year central government campaign aimed at blowing off the real estate bubble in country. "

It is further noted that the amount of loans issued in China has reached the value of 160 billions of dollars (up to the end of March 2012). The journalist writes that state-controlled Chinese banks do not have access to the same area of ​​market financing, which is “available in more developed countries, such as the United States.”

“This is the most difficult period in the last thirty years,” said Alan Wang, head of a shoe trading company in the southern city of Shenzhen — factories whose customers live in Spain and France. “Many people will not be able to survive.”

The article notes a decline in the growth of Chinese exports while reducing the growth of imports. But a significant, and even more catastrophic, decline is not actually noted: the journalist purposely compares the first quarter of this year with the fourth quarter of the previous one - instead of comparing the first quarter of 2012 with the first quarter of 2011. After all, it is common knowledge that in the last quarter of the year economic growth is increasing, and the first quarter is slowing. This is typical for the economy, for example, Russia. And for such a “developed” country as the USA, this is also characteristic.

State restrictions aimed at suppressing speculative activities in the real estate market in China, as the American journalist writes further, "pushed some real estate companies to cut deals." This has been going on for several months.

In a quarterly report, the World Bank in Washington urged China to relax reserve requirements for banks to stabilize economic growth in the country.

“The days of growth expressed in double digits can be forgotten forever,” the author writes with pathos.

Beijing could rely on domestic consumption to bring the economy in line with its compliance, the journalist said. But for this, “painful reforms” will be required, from which “entrenched interest groups” may suffer.

The only commentator on David Pearson’s article poisonously remarked: “The growth has dropped from 8,9% to 8,1%, and this justified historythe whole page on the front page of the Los Angeles Times? ”

Just a year and a half ago, articles could be found in the American press, full of wonder, delight, and even fear of the locomotive of the Chinese economy, which was catching up with the American one.

For example, in "New York Times" from 15 August 2010, a report from Shanghai David Barbosa, was published: “China bypasses Japan and becomes the second largest economy”. The report dealt with the "ascent of China" and that all other countries will have to reckon with the "new economic superpower." It was also said that in 2030, China would overtake the United States.

“China is already one of the main factors of global economic growth,” we read in the report. - The country's leadership began to feel more confident in the international arena and gained more influence in Asia, Africa and Latin America on issues such as special trade agreements and multi-billion resource deals.

“They have a great influence on the global economy and will become the dominant force in Asia,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University and former head of the Chinese IMF unit. “Many other countries in the region are behind China, and this is great for a low-income economy.”

In addition, David Barbosa wrote: “Also, Beijing is starting to form a global dialogue on a wide range of issues; for example, according to analysts, last year he argued that the dollar’s ​​circulation as the world's key reserve currency should be stopped. ”

Here you have a delight mixed with fear. And now - growth has dropped from 8,9% in the fourth quarter to 8,1% in the first quarter, and started talking about the “recession”. Both biased and incorrect, gentlemen.

Ii. Rival hollywood

“In the previous quarter (October – December 2011), China’s GDP growth on an annualized basis was 8,9%, and in the end of the whole 2011, the country's economy grew by 9,2%. In 2010, the country's GDP increased by 10,4%. In Q1 2012, relative to the previous quarter, China’s GDP increased by 1,8%. It is worth noting that the World Bank (WB) lowered its forecast for Chinese growth in 2012 to 8,2% from previous 8,4%. The expectations of a “soft landing” of the PRC economy are connected with debt problems and recession in Europe, which is the main trading partner of the PRC ”(RBC Tatyana Romanova).

“Representative of the National Bureau of Statistics Sheng Liuan told a news conference that in quarterly terms, the country's GDP grew by 1,8% over three months. According to preliminary statistics, China’s GDP for this period reached 10,7995 trillion yuan ($ 1,72 trillion).

Nevertheless, Sheng Liuan noted that, despite the unfavorable financial conditions in the world and the general recession, China’s economy continues to grow “at a rather rapid pace” (Rosbalt).

That's better.

However, there are economic problems in China. And rather big ones. But they were in the 2010 year, and earlier. China's economy has been growing for thirty years, but this does not mean that it is perfect. On the contrary, as Eswar Prasad mentioned above rightly noted, in the People's Republic of China there is an economy “with a low income per capita”. From 1979 to 2010, i.e. over 30 years, GDP per capita grew from 179 to 500 dollars; for this indicator, China is ranked 91-e place in the world. This is one of the main problems in China, due to which the country has “sustained” low domestic demand. As for the growth of industry and commerce, which are forced to export, the data can be viewed on the resource "Cons" there is not much, I assure you.

Foreign trade volumes are increasing - but growing, and at a much faster pace, and imports, which has already led to a small negative balance in the country's trade balance. “In 2011, exports from China amounted to $ 1,9 trillion, an increase of 20% compared to 2010, while imports increased even more - by 25%, reaching $ 1,74 trillion. Thus, the trade surplus of the Middle Kingdom is fading away: in February of this year, the General Administration of Customs of China already recorded a negative balance of $ 31,5 billion. In a year or two, the balance of foreign trade of the PRC can finally go into a minus. For China itself, this is not so scary: over the previous “fat years”, it has accumulated enormous foreign exchange reserves. But it is becoming not only a supplier of goods, but also an increasingly important sales market for many trading partners. Consequently, the slowdown in the economy and social unrest in the PRC will inevitably reduce the demand in the Chinese market and adversely affect many enterprises in other countries ”("Morning", Andrei Milovzorov).

Artur Akhmetov, senior analyst at IFC "Solid", identifies the following "factors of tension" in the PRC economy:

“1) Further decline in export performance due to the unresolved debt problems in the Eurozone and weak domestic demand in the United States.

2) Overheated real estate market. Sky-high housing prices may fall sharply.

3) The over-crediting of the economy. Only in March, lending volumes rose to 1 trillion. yuan, much of the population is in debt. This can lead to a non-payment crisis ”(RBC).

Another serious problem of China - paradoxically, largely artificial - is associated with overpopulation. In China, lives 1,6 billion people. Moreover, as the same A. Milovzorov points out, every year from 200 to 300 million Chinese from rural areas come to the cities to earn money. And what if they do not find work in a certain year? Let not all, but their part? Will not find a way to earn even that pitiful dollar, which feeds them and their families? .. And the flip side of this coin: the aging of the population,
artificially caused by the state program to reduce the birth rate. China "may not have enough hands! Hopes for a new acceleration of the economy are melting as the population ages. The consequences of a crude and short-sighted policy of reducing the birth rate in the 70-s of the last century begin to manifest themselves. Then the urban families were forbidden to have more than one child, rural - more than two. As a result, the percentage of retirees is rapidly growing in Chinese society, and the proportion of young people is declining: by 2020, the number of Chinese people aged from 20 to 24 is expected to decrease by more than 40% - from 125 to 70 million people. So very soon society will not be able to support the extensive growth of its economy, and it will be difficult for the state to fulfill even its more than modest social obligations ”("Morning", Andrei Milovzorov).

Along with this, the number of women in China is decreasing. “According to the 2011 data, there are already more 25 million more men than women in the Middle Kingdom, and this gap continues to widen. Abortions after recognizing the sex of the child have taken the scale of the epidemic, such that on Chinese TV they launch social advertising in the spring - how cool it is to give birth to girls ... they are kind, cute and adore mom and dad, unlike brutal boys. Officially, in China it is allowed to have only one child - for the right to give birth to the second one, it is necessary to unfasten the tax in 3 thousand dollars. That is why women waiting for girls often interrupt pregnancy: if you can have one child, let it be a boy - a money earner to the family and support in old age "("Arguments and Facts", George Zotov).

One solution to Chinese economic problems, according to A. Milovzorov, in the People's Republic of China there may be advanced training for seasonal workers - those hundreds of millions who go to the cities from rural areas to earn money. The Chinese will have to raise their production qualifications, and at the same time raise prices for products, already fully competing with Europeans. Screwdriver production - in the past. If the Chinese do not switch from their largely extensive development model to an intensive one, then the Europeans and Americans will ruin them with their crisis, into which the whole world is being sucked, as if in a quagmire. The West does not want China to be a “locomotive”, but the West wants China to be an ordinary railcar.

In the meantime, China has taken another second place ... in the global economy of the film industry, overtaking Japan in the first quarter of 2012. Reports about this resource China Daily.

Last year, China's film market grew by 33,3% and amounted to 2,08 billion dollars. It's time to panic Hollywood! (For comparison: in the US and Canada, the film market was 10,2 billion dollars in 2011 year. It decreased by 4% compared to 2010 year. At the same time, the US share in the global market increased from 57,3% in 2010 year to 58,4% in 2011 year ). The number of cinema halls in China increased from 4753 in 2006 to 10700 in 2011. Not a single country in the world, according to the article, has grown at such a rapid pace. True, there is a problem here: 90% of China's film industry revenues come from film shows, and DVD sales are low due to piracy.

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for

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  1. domokl
    domokl April 23 2012 07: 57
    A rather voluminous article, but not very much in the subject ... The fact that China is one of the world economic leaders is clear to everyone .. And the envy of the Americans is understandable ...
    1. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim April 23 2012 08: 04
      Envy is not the main American trait. They also have: greed, inhumanity, stupidity (especially in the laws), carelessness and all that is why they make their terror all over me (I also mean color revolutions).
      1. nitro
        nitro April 23 2012 10: 38
        For Hollywood in the article they made laugh, thanks for the positive emotions! One can only guess something about Chinese films .... laughing All the stars of the American showbiz are in a panic, the Chinese are taking the last piece of pizza, Kochmarrr
  2. JoylyRoger
    JoylyRoger April 23 2012 08: 03
    In principle, the author did not discover America. China desperately needs living space, just our Far East and Siberia am
    Plus, the stratification and difference between rich and poor provinces, and there are also internal separatists.
    And as if a hint where to direct the passionary energy of millions of guys, especially if they are dressed in military uniforms of the PLA.
    The conclusion suggests itself.
  3. Dust
    Dust April 23 2012 08: 46
    China is so huge, incomprehensibly huge that just by switching to solving its own problems it can successfully develop for quite a long time ...
    And all these figures of percent growth or decline in the vast majority of cases from the evil one - who and how to count them will receive the result ...
  4. Odessa
    Odessa April 23 2012 09: 16
    China has a large share in the world economy. From this point and "you have to dance." If you visit Russia, then as a souvenir you will bring beautiful, painted nesting dolls, if you visit Greece, then you will bring interesting trinkets as a souvenir, if Israel is clay plates with landscapes Holy Land, if France, perfume, if Emirates, silk. And if you visit the United States, most likely it will be Chinese-made souvenirs. laughing
    1. Armata
      Armata April 23 2012 09: 24
      With views of New York in the context of the Chinese eye. laughing
    2. snek
      snek April 23 2012 12: 39
      Matryoshka with a probability of 30 percent will be Chinese, perfumes about 50%, well, it's hard to talk about silk.
    3. datur
      datur April 23 2012 20: 40
      and if you visit China, then you will buy all this at a low price !!!!! laughing
  5. crossbow
    crossbow April 23 2012 09: 45
    The fact that growth is decreasing and there are no more double-digit figures for GDP growth is not surprising, since the lowering of the role of the low base factor and the saturation of Chinese markets with foreign products are affecting, but these current figures are respectable. And considering what China was just 30 years ago, you can safely say well done, well done, and again well done comrades [or gentlemen)))] the Chinese.
    ANTURAG April 23 2012 10: 22
    If their low-quality consumer goods ceased to buy kirdyk around the world would their economy. To be honest, they have already gotten into their market. It’s not possible to choose a toy for a child already, hucksters only carry their goods and carry them out of reasonable prices.
    1. Manager
      Manager April 23 2012 10: 43
      What is characteristic, for the domestic market, the Chinese are quite qualitatively collect goods.
  7. crossbow
    crossbow April 23 2012 10: 50
    Not so low-quality Chinese consumer goods, otherwise they would not have been bought all over the world, and the fact that rubbish is often brought to Russia is not surprising, since the protection of consumer rights is only on paper and Mr. Onishchenko, as far as I remember, has never complained about China I didn’t show it. Besides, not only quality, but also price should be taken into account for evaluating any product. Yes, the quality of Chinese consumer goods is not up to par, but the price is also low. And the fact that there are no toys that suit you is to blame industry.
  8. SectoR
    SectoR April 23 2012 11: 55
    Quote: Odessa
    And if you visit the USA, most likely it will be souvenirs made in China

    Odessa 5 points to you laughing good
    Quote: crossbow
    Not so low-quality Chinese consumer goods, otherwise it would not have been bought all over the world

    You may be right, BUT
    Kirghiz did my repairs, and they talked about how the Chinese came to their factories and enterprises, an exchange of experience or something like that, and the Chinese pushed the following message: “the problem of your low economy is that you are doing well and forever, but it’s necessary on the contrary, one-time and for a while, so that people buy, buy and buy the goods they need and there will always be demand) ”
    Maybe the Chinese are doing something good, but for themselves. And they buy because it’s cheap ...
    well, now all the Chinese are going to make me feel bad
    1. Zynaps
      Zynaps April 23 2012 17: 35
      Quote: SectoR
      and the Chinese pushed such a speech: “the problem of your low economy is that you do it qualitatively and forever, but rather it’s one-time and temporary, so that people buy, buy and buy the goods they need and there will always be demand)”

      instead of listening to all sorts of gaster, I suggest visiting some sensible Chinese city. Shenzhen will do. in this city, in particular, disposable items such as apple-trees and apple-trees are produced. in architecture, this non-capital city of China looks better and more modern than Moscow. with disposable skyscrapers, yes. which the Chinese themselves built and which do not fall. and you can also visit the city, formerly called Port Arthur - Lushunkou. in the Russian Federation in the Far East (and in the western part) there are few cities that can be compared by modernity and cleanliness.

      I often happened to be on business trips in China and Southeast Asia, to live - to see. they live in every way, but a swift future and prospects are felt almost everywhere. we have not had such a feeling since the 70s of the USSR.
  9. kulpin
    kulpin April 23 2012 19: 51
    The most important thing that the Chinese have is the PURPOSE. Not close, difficult, but meaningful and voiced. Unfortunately, we have neither purpose nor sense ... "Thank you" to the intelligentsia.
  10. SectoR
    SectoR April 23 2012 20: 26
    Quote: Zynaps
    instead of listening to any gaster, I suggest visiting some sensible Chinese city

    the answer was higher

    Quote: SectoR
    Maybe the Chinese are doing something good, but for themselves.
  11. apro
    apro April 24 2012 01: 24
    China going forward with the ideas of Stalin and Mao showed us that without a damn besides a working idea, everything can be achieved. It was in China that they lived in poor places in the 17th century, but there is more order.
  12. Averias
    Averias 3 May 2012 12: 30
    I am bleeding from the Americans myself .... Well, but as small children, let them gloat over someone. The financial collapse themselves are not sunbathing, but absurdity is prophesied to others. As unreasonable kids, honestly. He lives in some kind of puppet world, not realizing that the puppeteers are by no means good uncles, but quite the opposite. Listed nation.