Military Review

Rebuilding Syria? Yes. But this is not fraternal help.

19
The antiterrorist operation in Syria led almost to the complete defeat of the Islamic State (prohibited in the Russian Federation). The fight against militants is not over yet, but the time has come to think about the post-war reconstruction of the country. Russia is ready to restore Syria, but we are not talking about “fraternal assistance”: the process should be mutually beneficial. In addition, China and India are advancing on the heels of Russia.




Destructions from the war in Syria are catastrophic. The World Bank (MB) estimates that civil conflict and the war against terrorists in Syria destroyed 7% and damaged 20% of the housing stock (excluding administrative and infrastructure facilities). Killed to 470 thousand people, and more than half of the citizens were refugees. The cumulative GDP losses at the end of 2016 were estimated by the MB at 226 billion dollars. The war destroyed thousands and thousands of enterprises. According to expert data, at least a trillion dollars is needed for the restoration of Syria. Other experts call the amount less, but they speak only about the first (initial) stage of recovery.

And it's not just about money: the war in Syria is not completely over. Accordingly, it is rather risky to start the process of large-scale recovery. From the terrorist attacks and other attacks militants of the city are not insured. Still, it is necessary to “stake out” the territory for restoration right now. Competition will be here, and will be tough.

Who will be the first to rebuild Syria? Who will not allow competitors to take what is right for him? And is it supposed? Authoritative opinions are expressed that China and India are striving to engage in the future process of restoring Syria. However, Russia is also not sleeping. Russian investors, who are willing to invest in the restoration of the country after the devastation, are very interested in local minerals. Therefore, Syria has something to pay for the works.

At the end of last year, President Al-Assad confirmed: Russia will become the main participant in the country's reconstruction process. This is not surprising: it is Russia that is the officially invited party to fight terrorism, and it is Russia that has dealt decisive blows against the militants.

At the end of 2017 of the year, we recall, President Bashar Asad received a government and economic delegation from the Russian Federation. She was headed by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. During the meeting, the sides discussed prospects for strengthening economic cooperation between Russia and Syria. According to SANAThe most important in the discussion were the topics of cooperation in the fields of oil, gas, phosphate production, in the fields of electric power, petrochemical industry, transport, and trade.

According to Mr. Assad, the victories achieved in the fight against terrorism in Syria have created the necessary conditions for rebuilding the country after the devastation. The recovery process really opens up broad economic prospects for cooperation between the two states. President Assad highlighted that, taking into account historical relations between the two countries and Russian services to Syria in the context of countering terrorism Russia is becoming a natural important partner in the process of rebuilding the country in a variety of sectors.

In turn, Mr. Rogozin stressed that the government and Russian companies are ready to provide all support in helping to rebuild Syria and support the Syrian people on their path to prosperity.

The Russian delegation was not without reason included deputy ministers of foreign affairs, defense, economic development, energy, transport, industry and trade, as well as the Russian ambassador in Damascus and the heads of some Russian companies.

According to Rogozin, the negotiations were preceded by a large work of the ministries and economic operators who are constantly in Syria. The meeting resulted in “very important agreements that, of course, will allow us to win this war for minds, for stability in Syria, a war for the military success that was achieved by the Russian armed forces, was reinforced by this long-term orientation of Syria towards Russia, on Russian market ". "According to the estimates of the Syrian president, the damage caused by this aggression against Syria is approximately 400 billion dollars," the Russian deputy prime minister said. RIA News".

However, Syria is a rich country:

“But it must be borne in mind that Syria is an infinitely rich country. Some harvests here are taken three, and sometimes four a year. There are mineral resources, a unique geographical location from the point of view of the so-called transport logistics, and much more. Russian companies have a moral right (especially in the presence of our military, which is preserved to one degree or another to maintain peace and stability) to develop large-scale economic projects here. ”


Rogozin also made it clear that investments in the restoration of Syria should be cost-effective: after all, one should also think about the Russian budget.

According to him, the Russian business in Syria considers "every penny, every ruble." One should “think not only about another country, even so close and friendly, but we now have to think about how to earn money in our budget, for our citizens, for people who are also waiting for some return from the big work of the Russian Federation on the territory of Syria” . The specifics of a profitable business have already been announced. "On the territory of Syria is the largest phosphate deposit, - quotes Rogozin Interfax. - This is a very popular product in many countries. This is fertilizer. We agreed with our Syrian colleagues that we are forming a single operator, we are working on the field, on export, on the delivery of this processed phosphate to other countries that are waiting for this product. ”

(Earlier, we recall, Damascus itself proposed Russian Railways and other companies to implement projects aimed at developing the transport infrastructure of Syria. This included the restoration of the railway line through Homs to the phosphate mines.)

In addition, Rogozin touched on the topic of the future export of Russian wheat: Russia could use the Syrian ports for this. And to export wheat not only to Syria, but also to neighboring countries.

The fact that the restoration of Syria will not be "humanitarian aid", said later and the vice-speaker of the State Duma Peter Tolstoy.

“Let's not forget about the economic recovery of Syria, - сказал He is on the TVC channel. - There are long-term ideas about the participation of our country in helping the Syrians now rebuild their country. This, of course, will be possible only after the negotiations in Geneva and when some lasting peace is established there. But now the first steps in this direction are being made. ”

The assistance of Syria, however, will not be humanitarian aid: after all, Syria is rich in both oil and gas fields. Tolstoy said directly about the profit:

“As far as I know, those business people, those businessmen who want to participate in this project, of course, they want to earn and work together with the Syrians in order to profit from it, and by the way, invest this money in our schools so that they too would be on a level. ”


As you can see, the times of fraternal assistance have sunk into oblivion. And now Russia seeks to identify and benefit. Yes, and not the oil budget of hers already, to be scattered by fraternal help (which the USSR was killed at the time).

However, other players in the global market are not going to lose sight of Syria.

Said Gafurov, scientific director of the Institute of Applied Oriental Studies and African Studies, believes that China and India will be increasingly involved in the situation in the Middle East, namely in the process of restoring Syria. “The question of restoring the Iraqi and Syrian economy is being raised, and now there will be a very tough competition for who will do it: we, Iranians, Chinese or Indians,” he said "On the eve of the". - This is all very real, very vital, very important. The war is already past stage, now we are talking about restoration. In Syria, it is already clear to everyone who won the war and who lost. The question is only about who will recover Syria and how, because, in principle, no one doubts the future of Syria, neither we nor the Americans. ”

The Chinese, we add, really took on the economic "scope" of Syria. After all, this country is a longtime partner of China. By the way, the trade turnover of the PRC with the SAR before the civil war was superior to that of Russia. Now, the Chinese project “One Belt - One Way” has included Syria in the “corridor” to Europe. And the Chinese have clearly defined their Syrian vector in the Middle East.

According to Deputy Chairman of the Sino-Arab Association for the mutual exchange of comrade Qin Yong, Chinese companies ready to invest 2 billion dollars in the creation of an industrial park in Syria. One and a half hundred Chinese companies are eager to participate in this project.

As for India, in an interview with WION Television, President Assad saidthat Syria will welcome India in the process of restoring the Syrian infrastructure: “We will welcome India to play an economic role in restoring Syria. Something we have already begun. We started this project in Damascus, now we are expanding this project to most cities in Syria, of course, after being liberated from ISIS and Al-Nusra (banned in Russia).

* * *


With acute Indian and Chinese competition, Russia will still maintain its traditional trade. Previously, it included products of military-technical purposes, oil products and grain crops - in a word, the very thing that Mr. Rogozin was talking about.

The attractive areas for cooperation between Russia and Syria will probably be oil production, oil refining, gas processing, power generation and civil engineering. In the long term, the development of tourism is also likely. Of the proposed international projects, we can recall the Iranian-Syrian-Russian gas pipeline, through which gas will flow from the Iranian South Pars field to Latakia. And all this activity, according to Russian politicians, will be built on a profitable basis.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
19 comments
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  1. SCHWERIN
    SCHWERIN 26 February 2018 16: 38
    +6
    I'm afraid it’s going to a specific war. Who will invest in Syria? The strongest, knowing that he will beat money for at least 20-30 years. Those. long game. Russia, all her life she lived one day. Alas, the mentality. After the war, they helped (at the expense of the patient and undemanding people) to the entire social camp, pulled veins from their own. Now this option of power cannot be held, another generation. But judging by the thoughtless write-off of debts to former "brothers" they can repeat it. Although for Cuba and Vietnam hurried. Could the status of bases be left with a guard (presence) of 3 people with the payment of travel allowance. Short game. States play long, put on a bunch of paid "elite", and not on the amorphous people. We don’t learn, we’ll be lost.
    Although Syria, from the point of view of the economy, none. This is not Germany. Even the very same GDR, which was mediocrely surrendered, although the Germans are law-abiding and the GDR army was not the last and loyal to the UNION, not to mention the intelligence of the Stasi. And the loss of the Stasi for the Committee, then the FSB is huge.
    The Cubans were helped great, but their connections proved to be very good in Angola. And they were surrendered in the 90s. What will happen next?
    1. Berber
      Berber 26 February 2018 16: 53
      +1
      What was, was. And the hope that not at our expense remains.
    2. seti
      seti 26 February 2018 19: 00
      +8
      Five comments and all solid experts from the word alarmists. Are you specialists in this field? What do you understand about this?
      Understand - we are already present in Syria. And of course, we also have economic interests there .. But how could it be otherwise .. What 20-30 years of return are you talking about? Why our PMCs in Syria? What are they guarding there? Think about it. We are already participating in the clogging of our economic interests, and if we do not clog our land, others will occupy it.
      Yes, there is not so much oil and gas there as in neighboring Iraq. But all one is many especially in the eastern regions of the country. And this is real money now. Read the article carefully in what exactly is going to participate in the Russian Federation. In what it is traditionally strong. It is clear that in some business projects we cannot (yet cannot) compete with the Chinese or the same Turks. But even their participation is welcome. We will have more partners / allies interested in maintaining their investments.
      Tired of all the crying already.
      1. SCHWERIN
        SCHWERIN 27 February 2018 02: 38
        0
        Why all the same alarmists? A review for a short period of time already shows a trend. The West has united, pursuing a coordinated policy. And bet on the Arabs, you’ll excuse me. A union with power and ideology, and he stumbled on Egypt. What about Indonesia? The whole Union world rested on huge money poured from them by the Union. And this crippled the economy, the people turned away from the Communist Party. Almost no one began to defend the USSR.
        And now they have forgiven loans. What's next? No money, but are you holding on? They don’t understand. And money does not always help. An example of Ukrainians. Billions drove in and what's the point? Crimea is an apple of discord. For a long time it will be. But if they had done everything in their minds, the Ukrainians would have given Crimea for independence. After all, Kravchuk said that everyone would go for independence. But no one thought about it. Take all the brothers.
        Do not forget about the sanctions of the West. They entered against us, they will introduce against Syria. And no one will interfere. The situation is serious. One should hope for a chance and for God.
        Plus one with Syria. They raised the Army, more or less put things in order in the military-industrial complex, tested new weapons and the General Staff worked in the field.
      2. groks
        groks 27 February 2018 13: 07
        0
        we are already present in Syria
        And there are USA, Turkey, and the hell who else is not there. For almost all of the oil sat down the USA. Well, why the hell then "attend"?
  2. Cheburator
    Cheburator 26 February 2018 17: 05
    +18
    Russia is ready to restore Syria

    Why on earth?
    Maybe Syria is ready to participate in the modernization of the Russian economy?
  3. Wolka
    Wolka 26 February 2018 18: 23
    0
    but hard to believe ...
  4. dgonni
    dgonni 26 February 2018 18: 35
    -1
    Purely from the review. oil and other minerals is all that interests the Russian establishment. Given the complete devastation of cities, this is simply unrealistic from the word waabsche. You can sit on the field, but at the moment they are with Gulkin sorry. It will not be possible to repulse the investment. Without investing in humanitarian infrastructure, nothing will burn out. Therefore, all by the cash register. If Rogozin traveled? Well, they’ll put a couple of military bases. But they will not give GDP growth. If simpler, then dregs on oil and gas. Although probably already scratched turnips.
  5. Radikal
    Radikal 26 February 2018 19: 11
    0
    Quote: SCHWERIN
    I'm afraid it’s going to a specific war. Who will invest in Syria? The strongest, knowing that he will beat money for at least 20-30 years. Those. long game. Russia, all her life she lived one day. Alas, the mentality. After the war, they helped (at the expense of the patient and undemanding people) to the entire social camp, pulled veins from their own. Now this option of power cannot be held, another generation. But judging by the thoughtless write-off of debts to former "brothers" they can repeat it. Although for Cuba and Vietnam hurried. Could the status of bases be left with a guard (presence) of 3 people with the payment of travel allowance. Short game. States play long, put on a bunch of paid "elite", and not on the amorphous people. We don’t learn, we’ll be lost.
    Although Syria, from the point of view of the economy, none. This is not Germany. Even the very same GDR, which was mediocrely surrendered, although the Germans are law-abiding and the GDR army was not the last and loyal to the UNION, not to mention the intelligence of the Stasi. And the loss of the Stasi for the Committee, then the FSB is huge.
    The Cubans were helped great, but their connections proved to be very good in Angola. And they were surrendered in the 90s. What will happen next?

    You better count how much is stolen, and exported abroad, and get a more significant amount than those that we wrote off to our foreign allies and partners! sad
    1. cats
      cats 26 February 2018 22: 46
      +2
      Radical, you yourself are not sick? From topic to topic, plundered, exported, the economy ..
      And about the cheburators doomed to give the Syrians money in the article, not a word .. But it’s about investors from our oligarchs. Are you sorry for their money? I don’t. They will also pay taxes.
      You do not take care of yourself, all crying, how much in vain .. crying
      1. groks
        groks 27 February 2018 13: 12
        0
        Are you sorry for their money? I'm not
        I'm sorry. This is not their money. It always somehow turns out to be our money. Either prema with the East, then with Yamal - but as much as possible already.
  6. gorenina91
    gorenina91 26 February 2018 20: 15
    0
    -If only Syria becomes part of Russia ... -But this is a whole cosmos of problems for Russia ... -Just there is no way out of this situation ...
  7. Homeland
    Homeland 26 February 2018 22: 10
    +1
    I can’t believe that Russia will derive super economic benefits. This is now Assad promises the golden mountains. And when everything in Syria calms down, he will begin to sing another song. He now must legislatively secure privileges to companies with Russian capital. Then it will be too late. China and India will offer him deals that he cannot refuse. In principle, Assad needs Russia only to keep it in power. And economically, Assad has a lot of options.
  8. Radikal
    Radikal 26 February 2018 23: 19
    0
    Quote: Kotovsky
    Radical, you yourself are not sick? From topic to topic, plundered, exported, the economy ..
    And about the cheburators doomed to give the Syrians money in the article, not a word .. But it’s about investors from our oligarchs. Are you sorry for their money? I don’t. They will also pay taxes.
    You do not take care of yourself, all crying, how much in vain .. crying

    And what are you - one of them, judging by the reaction? sad
  9. Mih1974
    Mih1974 27 February 2018 02: 03
    +1
    And what about only the oil industry, but what about the construction of port facilities? This will allow both our builders and crane equipment manufacturers. By the way, stick our railway standard and our trains there. good Also, for good, you need to arrange your own inventory for promotion on the Syrian market. It was also nice to have even unofficial export preferences for the supply of our products, but only those manufactured in Russia. It is also possible to “facilitate” the supply of Syrian fruits instead of those of Israel. good The same citrus fruits, dates and much more, but only produced in Syria, and not re-exported from neighboring countries.
    1. Vladivostok1969
      Vladivostok1969 27 February 2018 07: 12
      0
      And we have everything built? Everyone got housing. They built new schools and hospitals. They built a cosmodrome, yes. Only often missiles launched from it fall. And 5 lards snuck. And there you have to build the whole country. How much dough is waiting!
    2. groks
      groks 27 February 2018 13: 27
      0
      will allow both our builders to load
      Which ones? Our Central Asian builders?
      In general, if you do not employ at least somehow the local population, then he will just have nothing to eat and there will be ISIS 2,3,4, ....
      to supply our products
      What is it?
  10. Yrec
    Yrec 1 March 2018 10: 25
    0
    We do not know how to help for money. Everyone knows this and expects from us exclusively "fraternal help", which we will certainly provide. And then come China and India and others. And now they will be for money, and they will ask us from Syria and we will exterminate.
  11. PVL176
    PVL176 2 March 2018 23: 31
    0
    Our businessmen, without any doubt, will earn and profit. And the state, as always, will give a loan and write it off due to the impossibility of repaying the political reasons for issuing it. And Mr. Storchak will be surprised how generally we could think that the loan could be repaid.