Storm of the “Nubl Corridor”: what will turn out to be Erdogan’s next utopian strategy for Ankara?
In his riotous desire to gain control over the northern provinces of the Syrian Arab Republic, President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his closest political circle, undoubtedly, not only crossed all the lines of what was permitted, but also practically lost their common sense. First (about a month ago) it was a cunning "game of convoys" on the territory of the so-called "Idlib gadyushnik", aimed at strengthening the defensive capabilities of the terrorist group "Tahrir ash-Sham" and the opposition-terrorist FSA in front of the advancing government forces and Hezbollah units. The arrival of Turkish convoys, which inflicted a joint blow to “Al-Nusroy” on the front-line Hadera and its environs, controlled by CAA, was skillfully disguised by the creation of a de-escalation zone in northern Syria, which ultimately led to an advantage for Ankara: on the border of Idlib, several fortifications / observation structures that practically “frozen” the Syrian army’s attack on Idlib occupied by the pro-Turkish forces. This means that Erdogan secured full control over a huge part of the Syrian land adjacent to the silt Hatay. The first stage of the Turkish intervention can be considered complete.
As you remember, simultaneously with the establishment of observation points in Idlib, there was a tragic incident with the interception of our Su-25 near Idlib by means of MANPADS, which could be transferred to the terrorists "Tahrir ash-Sham" exclusively through the Syrian-Turkish border. This can be interpreted only as a warning about the consequences of the stripping of Idlib addressed to Damascus and Moscow. And, unfortunately, the next “knife in the back” remained unanswered, - the western sector of the front in Idlib “calmed down”.
The second stage of the Turkish intervention against Syria is the military operation “Olive Branch” launched exactly a month ago, aimed at seizing the Kurdish canton of Afrin in the northwestern part of Aleppo province, the ultimate goal of which was originally to be the unification into a single operational and strategic “fist” of the Azaz region (belongs to the pro-Turkish rebels from the SSA) and the “Idlib Gadyushnik”, where Afrin is currently the problem link for Ankara. As it was found out earlier, the continuation of the Olive Branch, announced by Erdogan, against the Manbij area became pure bluff, because these territories of Syrian Kurdistan, unlike Afrin, are under the powerful protection of the Air Force, the Marine Corps and the United States MTR, whose commands are already long ago developed a strategic defensive concept in case of an offensive of the Turkish army. Moreover, the Manbidj Kurdish detachments of the SDF (“Syrian Democratic Forces”) have long been crammed with the most modern American anti-tank missile weapons, which even without the direct support of the Western coalition forces can turn any attempts by the Turkish Army on Rozava into a precarious action that will turn for the first into a partisan "Meat grinder".
In the Afrin enclave, YPG / YPJ Self-Defense Units operate in no way being patronized by the Central Command of the Armed Forces led by Lieutenant-General Jeffrey Harrigan, and have counteracted the militants of the pro-Turkish FSA and the Armed Forces of Turkey alone, only due to the arrival of African volunteers from under the control of the CAA areas of the Rozhava, and also the countries of the FSU and beyond. The Pentagon completely abstracted from resolving the situation in the canton of Afrin more 18 January 2018, when the official representative of the Western coalition and public relations officer Colonel Ryan Dillon said that there were no tasks or interests of the US military in this enclave. Why did Washington take this stand?
The answer is extremely simple. Afrin is a pronounced exclave, separated from Manbij by a 23,5-kilometer “isthmus” north of El Bab, controlled by the “Syrian Free Army”. Consequently, military support for the Afrikan Kurds in a clash with the Turkish Ground Forces might require the use of military transport aviationoperating through the airspace over Azaz, where the pro-Turkish FSA "controls" the situation (after all, Damascus would not have agreed to provide the Americans with an air corridor over Aleppo). And this would mean a direct confrontation with Ankara, which the Americans are also not comfortable with the possible closure of the Basfor for the destroyers of the Ural Arley Burke of the 6th operational fleet The U.S. Navy, which now and then enters the Black Sea to monitor the operational efficiency of the Black Sea Fleet Naval Aviation and electronic reconnaissance of coastal radio-emitting objects in the Crimea using an irradiation warning station integrated into the AN / SLQ-32 (V) airborne defense system. The Pentagon did not intervene in the affairs of Afrin, and in connection with the apparent volume of material costs and attracted military equipment that must be maintained at the proper level in the event of a collision with the powerful and well-equipped Syrian Arab Army (we are not talking about those units that were defeated from the fire of the Ganship near Deir ez-Zor due to the lack of proper means of military air defense).
As a result, the future of the canton of Afrin was in the hands of Damascus and Moscow. Moreover, his support by the Syrian army would be an excellent chance to seize the initiative from Ankara in establishing control over the northern part of Syria, replacing Erdogan with his imperial manners. And, as it became known on the evening of February 20 from numerous Russian news resources with reference to the Syrian news agency SANA and sources in the SNA / NDF ("Syrian National Forces"), the command of the Syrian army did not miss this opportunity.
In the evening of the same day, an impressive column of pro-government Syrian militia presented by Shi fighters from Zahra, Nubl, Aleppo, Hama and other cities of Syria advanced from the northwestern neighborhood of Aleppo to the canton of Afrin on the “Mair-Shatal az-Ziyarakh” highway. According to unconfirmed information, the “backbone” of the group can be represented by company units of the elite 5 of the Syrian Army assault corps, represented by volunteers from the SAR and Iran, as well as Hezbollah units. Additional forces were tightened during the day and evening of February 21, completely refuting Erdogan’s inappropriate statements that the CAA forces retreated after an artillery attack on the Mayr-Shatal az-Ziyar highway (units entered despite the fire of the T-155 long-range self-propelled guns T-XNUMX "Firtina" receiving target designation from UAVs). In connection with this, YPG spokesman Reisan Khedu didn’t get into his pocket for the word and called the Turkish president a “bad road policeman.”
It should be noted that today only the infantry divisions of the SNS are known, arriving mainly in SUVs, pick-ups and minibuses: neither the artillery barreled, nor the armored vehicles in the convoys have yet been observed, which can lead to grim reflections on the prolongation of the operation to oust the pro-Turkish forces from canton for many months or even years. However, not everything is as bad as it might seem at first glance. If you look at the Afrin Canton topographic map and compare it with the syria.liveuamap.com daily updated tactical map, you can note that the maximum depth of advance of the FSA occupation forces to the canton was 9 km, in the area of the settlement of Durakli (northern Afrin front).
The stop of the offensive in this operational direction is due to the fact that the hill seized by the rebels near the village of Esh-Shayuh allows the FSA formations to advance towards the low bed of the Afrin River only to the village of Durakli (when working with large-caliber sniper rifles and machine guns). In the area of the southern villages of Ballursanik and Al-Yuiji (6,5 km from Shushuh), topographical factors no longer play into the hands of the pro-Turkish FSA units, and the Kurdish experience of guerrilla warfare begins to take over. Bottom line: the captured villages of Durakli, Divan et-Tahtani and Hamlurak - this is the entire tactical success of the FSA and NE of Turkey in the first month of Operation Olive Branch. The central parts of the canton, which are distinguished by their most complex, elevated terrain, remain inaccessible to the SSA and are reliably controlled by the YPG troops.
As for the newly arrived pro-government "Syrian National Forces", these soldiers (including anti-tank crews) are currently distributed in two of the most tank and infantry areas. One of these areas is the city of Jandaris, which is under threat of capture by the attacking FSA fighters from Hatay and the “Idlib Gadyushnik”, the other is the “Tell-Rifat-Raju” railway line, which the Forces of the “Syrian Free Army” and the MTR of Turkey have long been eyeing advancing on the Western Front (from the side of the D825 highway). W / D-branch "Tell-Rifat - Raju" allows you to quickly move to the north-western outskirts of the city Afrin. The Syrian militia that joined the YPG fighters on the mountain ranges will help to stop the enemy on these lines. The success of building layered anti-tank frontiers by the “Syrian National Forces” and YPG / YPJ should not even be doubted, because besides the tactical experience, they have at their disposal very modern anti-tank missile systems “Konkurs-M”, “Metis-M” and “TOW-2B” , possessing tandem cumulative warheads with armor penetration 750, 900 mm, respectively.
Despite the fact that Erdogan’s pseudo-strategy to fully occupy the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo, as well as the genocide of the Kurdish people was revealed by both the Russian and Syrian parties, and the SNA was introduced into Afrin under the cover of Syrian air defense systems (deployed near Maira and Nublya), the Turkish President and his entourage continue to make both false and absurd statements.
One of the authors of such statements was the Turkish Minister for EU Affairs and the head of the Turkish delegation at the negotiations with the European Union, Omer Celik. During his speech at the 37 meeting of the Consultative Committee Turkey-EU 20 in February, Чelik noted that the Turkish soldiers were making maximum efforts to protect the civilians of Afrin during the operation of the Olive Branch. And these words came from the mouth of a man whose state, in just one month of the military operation against Afrin, killed about 1000 people of the peaceful Kurdish population. As for the absurdity of the statements, here the first place belongs to the current President R. Erdogan, who demonstrates complete incompetence in assessing the tactical situation in the northern part of the Syrian Arab Republic. A few hours after the commencement of the transfer of the most combat-ready units of the Syrian militia to Afrin, Erdogan addressed the Turkish parliament with a statement about the “immediate siege of the center of Afrin city with the aim of blocking the transfer of reinforcement and providing military-technical support”.
The tactical picture in the area of the Nubl Corridor is not in favor of pro-Turkish formations (see syria.liveuamap.com)
What kind of siege can we talk about when the advancing FSA militants did not come close to the western, northern and eastern outskirts of the city of Afrin even on 15 - 20 km? After all, after the inclusion in the standoff on the side of YPG / YPJ, the NDF trained in the IRGC will have extremely bad cases for the pro-Turkish forces. For Erinogan’s fantasizing of taking Afrin into a tactical cauldron (with the inability to receive outside assistance) to “green” rebels, fighters will need to make a large-scale 15-kilometer offensive “throw” from the southern outskirts of Zahra to the northern borders of Tell-Rifata (via the so-called “Nubl Corridor”) . At the same time, to avoid a direct clash with the Syrian Arab Army here under no circumstances will succeed (see the map above). And this threatens a major regional conflict, even despite the recent talks between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, since the first one is protecting his own imperial interests in the region, not badly hiding behind NATO membership. In such a case, so far only as a safety net, the VKS of Russia once again transferred to Avb Khmeimim a link of super-maneuverable fighter jets of the transitional generation Su-35С, which were “in the lead” of the Tu-154М, as well as the modernized long-range radar detection and control aircraft A-50У with the modernized radar complex “ Bumblebee, ”Syrian sources at syria.liveuamap.com reported this to 21 on February evening. Against the background of unpredictable actions on the part of Hel Haavir, the Turkish Air Force and the US Air Force, these machines will not be superfluous here.
Information sources:
http://www.dw.com/ru/%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D1%83%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%82-%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B4%D1%83-%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B9%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE-%D0%B0%D1%84%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0/a-42655142?maca=rus-rss-ru-all-1126-rdf
https://syria.liveuamap.com/
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3100218.html
https://lenta.ru/news/2018/02/21/afrin/
Information