Russia: between Qatar and Nabucco
I. Like cheese in oil
Qatar lives very well. This is a small country (11586 sq. Km) with a population of just 1,7 million. It receives revenues from the sale of gas (6-th place for export in the world) and oil (21-th place). Qatar ranks first in the world in terms of GDP per capita (over 93000 dollars). Recently, its residents broke the world record for the proportion of obese people in the country, overtaking the United States. Already more than half of Qataris are obese. Hassan Taiz, one of the inhabitants of the country, admits: “It's all because we just sit in Qatar, smoke and eat heavy food at fast-food restaurants. There is little work, everything is automated, and most of us spend time in offices and cars ”("Arguments and Facts").
"The country is inhabited by people who once came for a long dinar, and now embody their life doctrine, which turns out to be very primitive: eat and sleep," writes "TVNZ". In Qatar, the rial monetary unit is now, but this gluttony is not a hindrance.
However, in Qatar, which rolls like cheese and butter, where there are a lot of McDonald's, not everyone was so fat that they were able to think only about food and sleeping. Some people in the ruling circles, swallowing saliva, but courageously refusing another tasty donut or a second liter of sweet Coca-Cola, are building a rather substantial energy strategy. To the detriment of the interests of Russia, by the way. After all, Russia is doing the same as Qatar. No, no, we are not talking about traveling to McDonalds for double cheeseburgers, but about exporting gas and oil.
Unintended Qatari here are at one with the unripe Americans.
Doctor of Economics, head of the geo-economics department of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems and head of the ANNA information and analytical agency Marat Musin believes that at present the United States, engaging Qatar in “cooperation”, is implementing a geopolitical and economic strategy similar to that in 1980 yo was one of the global causes of the destruction of the USSR. If, at that time, oil prices hit (to 12 dollars per barrel) Saudi Arabia, now Qatar, controlled by the United States through Exxon Mobil, is engaged in gas.
Qatar was transferred to the United States (Exxon Mobil) and Britain (British Petroleum) advanced technologies for liquefying and transporting gas, which are ahead of Russia, according to M. Musin, are fifteen years old. Qatar has a “splendid fleet of special vessels 54 - gas carriers of the South Korean construction class Q-max (270 thousand tons of LNG) and Q-flex (166). But the risks of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz with Iran do not allow Qatar to replace Gazprom in the same Europe. For this, it is necessary to lay a gas pipeline, at least, to the Mediterranean Sea, and, as a maximum, through Turkey and on to Europe. In reality, this can be done only through the territory of Syria, which Iran’s strategic ally will never do. Note that the richest field in the North is located on the border of Qatar and Iran, where it is called South Pars ”(Marat Musin, "On the Eve").
The existence of the newest scenario of gas geopolitical "regrouping" Musin proves last year's events in Libya and the current vector of American politics in Syria.
Let me remind you that the Syrian world hegemon, with the help of its allies, including Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, is trying to democratize it, dividing it into the notorious “buffer zones” and “humanitarian corridors”. It should also be remembered that Israel and the United States are aggressively disposed towards Iran. Who knows if the anti-bunker bombs will fall on the Iranian hydrocarbon deposits instead of nuclear facilities? .. Let us return to Musin.
“The main reason for the events in the Middle East,” he said, “is the economic background, because it will determine the future of such countries as Russia, China, Iran and Germany. For the “energy superpower” of Russia and Iran, which is rich in hydrocarbons, today it seems natural to provide Europe and China with its energy resources. For the latter - to receive them from Russia, Iran and Algeria, regardless of the wishes of the United States. Including for the main EU economy in Germany. Qatar has already declared a price war to Gazprom, especially since the latter does not depend on gas transit countries ”(Marat Musin, "On the Eve"). And further: “In order to bring the streams to Europe from the south under the control of the US satellites, it is necessary to dismember Syria, coup in Algeria and bombard the Iranian fields. In Syria, there should be either the leadership of the country controlled by the Americans, or a part of the territory should leave as a buffer. That is, we are talking about dismemberment ”(same source). Mussin draws the following scenario: “gas isolation” of Russia through Qatar and Saudi Arabia using the “price-quality” economic lever. “Either they transfer liquefaction terminals to a safe zone in the Mediterranean,” Musin says, “or they will drag the gas pipeline further, but it is profitable to build it to 2 thousand km, then it is profitable to transport liquefied gas. The pressure will be very strong in the coming 12 months. Otherwise, if the Americans do nothing, many can get out of the dollar zone, start settlements in national currencies, create an international financial settlement system independent of the Americans ”(same source). Thus, for the implementation of the described strategy can be used a combined option associated with the transportation of liquefied gas by sea, and with the construction of a gas pipeline through the territory of Jordan and dismembered Syria to a friendly US Turkey.
As you know, Qatar is one of the long-time supporters of the weapons of the so-called Syrian opposition. “The ideological cover and mobilization of Islamist militants in Qatar is carried out by the Chairman of the World Council of Islamic Theologians Yusuf Al Qardawi, the former head of the Egyptian Muslim Brothers, whose strong influence on the Emir and the high degree of Russophobia cannot be underestimated. Especially considering his active support of the Chechen terrorists. That is why the Qatari Canal “Al Jazeera” deals with the problems of Syria from morning to evening, and the mountains from Qatar are transported by Qatar air forces to Jordan and Turkey. weapons for the “Syrian Free Army”, openly funded groups of Syrian terrorists and Islamic militants "(M. Musin, "ANNA").
As for the alleged cooperation of "Exxon Mobil" with Russia, that, according to Musin, is one sheer swindle. “Here we must understand whether we received projects on paper or real investments - these are different things. Qatar also promises us Yamal LNG, Ural Industrial - Ural Polar and other projects, but when it comes to money, it turns out that it’s all a linden. We are embroiled in expensive projects, we spend money, and when it comes down to business, it turns out that our partners have “thrown” us. As a result, we have debt problems, but they have nothing to do with it. Exxon Mobil is pursuing this active policy, and as the mouthpiece of American interests in the oil and gas sector, it will naturally try to control the processes both in Russia and in other countries ”(M. Musin, "On the Eve").
In words El murida“For some reason, Qatar constantly keeps Russia on a short leash, expressing interest in one, now in another, now in the third major investment project - as a result, refusing and starting to show interest in the next. Considering that there are not so many people who want to invest in the Russian economy, Qatar behaves like a rich uncle, waving a bundle of dollars in front of the Russian nomenklatura - while clearly chasing empty. ”
According to Musin, it turns out that with the current Exxon Mobil strategy, it’s also an American strategy, it’s also Qatariian, and due to allied hydrocarbon intentions and Saudi, the following series of measures is planned for Moscow’s economic opposition: 1) American oil and gas blockade of Russia through Qatar and Saudi Arabia; 2) the replacement of Russian gas supplies to Europe for the supply of US satellite countries (for this, Syria is being dismembered, democracy is being built in Algeria and Iranian fields are being bombed); 3) saving the dollar as one of the key currencies in the world, while preventing the creation of an alternative system of international settlements (such as, for example, the system of the BRICS countries, or at least a system of direct settlements in rubles and yuan). That is, we are dealing with a tough strategy ahead, designed to prevent the dollar from falling - the very one that everyone has already become accustomed to calling contemptuously "green paper" and which nevertheless remains one of the key currencies.
“The successful US implementation of these long-running plans,” writes M. Musin, “allows us to destroy the emerging bundle of euro - ruble and euro - yuan, make the yuan an ordinary regional currency, make Europe and Germany dependent on US energy supplies by the satellites, force Russia to surrender. Obviously, in such a situation, China will be forced to begin the direct annexation of Russian territories and resources, which will most likely lead to a military clash between two nuclear powers ... ”("ANNA").
According to Musin, today de-industrialization of Russia is preventing the effective counteraction of US plans. Our country would help solve the emerging geopolitical and economic problem: an alliance with Germany (the Germans give us high technology, we give them hydrocarbons for guaranteed supplies); strong strategic friendship with Syria, Iran, India and China; the creation of independent from the US international financial settlement systems. Otherwise, the planned combined blow to gas and oil, Russia will not suffer.
Already, Moscow has lost 3% of the gas market because Qatar supplies gas to Europe (Victoria Fomenko, Trud). That is, Qatar is going to gain a foothold in the European market for the supply of liquefied natural gas. Here he “enters into direct competition with Gazprom with its pipeline gas. For this purpose, an extensive infrastructure is being created: the creation of LNG terminals in Europe is being financed, the possibilities of entering European energy structures are being considered, and another huge sea port is being built and gas carriers under LNG are being built.
Soon 25 of Q-Max project supertankers laid on the stocks in Qatar, capable of transporting millions of cubic meters of 150 per flight, will become a powerful armada of expansion in foreign markets. This armada, considering that the American Exxon Mobil is looking over the shoulder of the Qatari producer, will be used to undermine Russia's status as a leading supplier of gas to Europe. There is an opinion that using such a powerful lever, the neoconservative lobby in Washington, which gives Russia, at best, the role of the United States vassal in the future confrontation with China, will try to force Moscow to abandon a completely independent foreign policy ... "(Vadim Vikhrov, Foundation for Strategic Culture).
"In the end, under the nose of" Gazprom ", - writes El murid- regasification terminals are rapidly being built in Europe - in the South, in the North, in England. A huge fleet of gas carriers is being built - and the Q-Max series of twenty-five copies is not the only and not the last. It should be understood that 50 billions of cubic meters of gas per year is, of course, just 5% of the European gas market, but we are talking about the fact that this is in addition to already working projects. And Qatar quietly and peacefully pulled back 6 percent of the European market to itself, as a result of which the share of Gazprom decreased from 26 to 24. But we should not forget about Libya, where Qatar densely sits on the Libyan gas, and most importantly - keep in mind Algeria, which is absolutely outrageous leads, though controlled, but in many ways and sovereign policy in the gas sphere. By all indications, Algeria is one of the following goals for democratization. By the time Qatar builds its fleet and creates the infrastructure for LNG supplies, the fate of Algeria will be decided. Anyway".
So, Russia has a place in the post-Syrian and post-Algerian world. And probably the Postiranian. However, while analysts are scaring us with their geopolitical forecasts, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad, ready to block the Strait of Hormuz, in which case Qatar is not alone, transports its goods to the European market, is skillfully negotiating with the “six”, and Syrian President Bashar Asad with his gratitude notes how Syrian opposition terrorists surrender to hundreds of winning armies. It seems that if Russia succeeds in retaining its influence in Syria - and for this it is necessary to continue to defend its position before the aggressive West - then the chances of surviving in the post-industrial world, which turned out to be, despite the predictions of futurologist Toffler, an ordinary industrial one, will be there. And there will be another reason to speed up economic ties with BRICS - against the backdrop of a general opposition to the dollar. And it would be nice to think about expanding the BRICS, including on a mineral-raw material basis ... What is OPEC in Russia when Syria and Iran could join BRICS? Is it inconvenient somehow from the point of view of international diplomacy - against the background of “nuclear” hysteria around Tehran? .. But it is convenient for the States wherever there is oil or gas. And if Russia does not come there - with the proposal of an ordinary union, by the way, and not for oil or gas - then sooner or later either the States or their obese satellites will be there.
So both Syria, in which UN observers are already operating (by the way, even slightly criticizing the opposition for attacks), and a formidable Iran, are quite serious obstacles to the implementation of the geo-economic plans of the United States and Qatar with the Saudis. And five percent of the Euromarket gas in Qatar is not so much. But Russia must keep its eyes open.
The fact is that, in addition to “deindustrialization,” Russia is preventing its beautiful life — well, yes, in the manner of a fat Qatar — and the behavior of Gazprom’s management, who does not seem to notice the emerging “competitive” problem. Other analysts see here, however, the problem is not so much Gazprom, as the “pro-American” government of Russia, others believe that the top managers of Gazprom are completely relatives and godfathers, and part-time members of the fifth column, still others believe that these top managers are simply incompetent; Musin simply states the fact: “They have not yet come out of these projects. Gazprom still does not understand that Qatar has thrown us. They only said that, guys, let's be friends, there will be so many billions "("On the Eve").
We honor El murida:
“The paradox of the situation is that a powerful and highly resourced structure - financial, human, administrative, lobbying and so on - the structure of Gazprom is completely helpless in the field of foreign intelligence. In the field of strategic forecasting. <…>
... No action to advance - only a reaction to events. There is only one explanation for this - there is no normal corporate intelligence service and an analytical forecast.
At the same time, it is precisely in the area of counterintelligence that Gazprom has everything in perfect order - in any case, there are no high-profile punctures with leaks, there are no rushes of top personnel, an active struggle is being waged within the corporation against sent Cossacks, with talkers and so on. <...> With the external level, apparently, it is just a disaster.
In my opinion, now for Gazprom (and for Russia) there is a vital task, even with a delay, but adequately and precisely ahead of schedule to destroy plans to seize Gazprom's markets - and first of all, in Europe. ”
El Murid suggests Gazprom to create an analytical center that responds to external threats. Secondly, Gazprom (as if together with Russia) must determine its strategic allies. In Europe, it is the Germany mentioned above, in Asia it is also the mentioned Syria, Iran and China. Well, in Africa, the mentioned Algeria.
(That's right: everyone who is against the dangerous geopolitical game of the United States needs to be friends with Russia. And Russia is to be friends with them. The common enemy rallies, you know).
Finally, El Murid offers no special ceremony in corporate wars. Polite competition - was it ever there? .. Therefore, it is proposed to use those who are not too fat in Qatar - 15% of the Shiite population, who come from Iran. This is a “color revolution” in Qatar that Iran could initiate.
Since our ambassador was beaten in Qatar, we at least have a reason for a competitive response. El Murid believes that the ambassador’s beating is, in essence, the same as a naval vessel’s attack or sabotage on the territory.
As for Gazprom (El Murid harmoniously passes from it to Russia), then “it is here that the selfish interests of the nomenklatura coincide with the state ones. It is the war with Qatar today - this is the point of consensus, which can quite well without mental spasm explain the unity of power and society. Qatar encroached not only on Russian interests - it robs our nomenclature. Selecting acquired by overwork. For whom did our oligarchs revolutionize 91? For whom did they flood Moscow with 93 and put a half-drunk half-half on 96 on the throne? For the natives of al-Thani, or what? "
Ii. Bypass!
A reduction in the “dependence” of the European Union on Gazprom (read: Europe on Russia) is also planned in a different way, in which Germany’s “natural” buyer of Russian gas comes close to a competitive pipe. True, this path is no less complicated than the idea of dismembering Syria, bombing Iran, occupying Algeria and making Qatar the world's leading gas supplier.
We are talking about the planned construction of the Nabucco gas pipeline.
From the huge gas pipeline 3,9 length, thousand km (from the Caspian Sea to Austria), its entertainers refused at the beginning of 2012.
In January, US State Department Special Representative for Europe and Asia (there is such a yes) Richard Morningstar, speaking at the conference "Natural Gas and the Energy Future of Ukraine", said: "It has recently become clear that from a financial and temporary from the point of view it is harder to realize ”("Russian newspaper"). The implementation of the project will require long-term labor costs. In addition, the pipeline is unlikely to be filled to 100%.
Then, in mid-March 2012, the Financial Times reported that “the cut-down version of the pipeline, called Nabucco West, was approved by the majority of the project shareholders, in which the Austrian OMV Gas & Power GmbH participates with equal shares of 16,67%, Hungarian MOL, Bulgarian Bulgargaz, Romanian Transgaz, Turkish Botas and German RWE Supply & Trading GmbH. It is noteworthy that the Nabucco West project was also presented by British BP, which is not among the shareholders of Nabucco, but is interested in transporting gas from the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field "(Alexander Shustov, Foundation for Strategic Culture).
All these gentlemen assume that the gas supply to Europe, including Germany, will not be Russia, but Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan bypassing Russia. This strategic bypass maneuver in the economic language was called the diversification of the “energy supply routes of the European Union” (Alexey Chichkin, Rossiyskaya Gazeta). A major discussion on the “diversified” supply of Turkmen gas to Europe took place at the “Turkmenistan - Europe: Prospects for Cooperation” forum, which ended on March 16 in Berlin. The head of the European Commission's Energy Directorate, Jean Arnold Vinoy, speaking on behalf of the European Commissioner for Energy, Günther Oettinger, said that it would be most expedient to supply the EU with energy through the Southern Gas Corridor, which should be part of the Nabucco gas pipeline. Gas will go to Europe through a pipe through Azerbaijan and Turkey. Vinua urged Ashkhabad to hurry with the decision, expressing fears that other gas players - for example, Russia, Iraq, Iran - would not pull the cat by the tail. However, what they can do, he did not specify.
But Bairamgeldi Nedirov, minister of oil and gas industry and mineral resources of Turkmenistan, confused the cards to Western players.
According to A. Chichkin, the Minister "noted that" it is planned to increase gas production to 2030 billion cubic meters a year by 230, of which it is planned to export 180 billion. " At the same time, he made it clear that Turkmenistan is interested in deliveries to Russia: “The main buyers of Turkmen gas are Russia, China and Iran. Preparation for the start of the construction of a gas pipeline through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India is being completed. ”
As for the European direction, Nedirov did not say anything concrete here, and only diplomatically mentioned that "the process of substantive discussion of the pipeline in the direction of Europe has significantly intensified recently."
Thus, if Nabucco decided to solve the problem with the future resource base (with 100% content) by shortening the future gas pipeline, they cannot solve the negotiation problem with Turkmenistan - although Ashgabat is not refusing the idea of building a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea as such (having, by the way, contradictions with Azerbaijan - about supply quotas).
Another difficulty with the construction of a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea: the issue of the legal status of this sea is not resolved. This inland water basin is not subject to international maritime law. "The water surface and the bottom of the sea are still not demarcated," writes A. Shustov, - therefore, the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline looks incomprehensible from both legal and practical points of view. ”
But the European Union is not going to give up its “diversification” bypass ideas (as well as the USA - from its own). True, the German company RWE announced in February that its Nabucco enthusiasm could come to naught, and the Turkish Ministry of Energy ceased to consider the Nabucco project a priority (G. Lomsadze, Eurasianet), but it still does not speak about the “funeral” of a geopolitical idea of infringing Russian interests.
In the newspaper Financial Times, in the "Brussels Blog" for 22 in March, an article by Joshua Chaffef "Another nail in the coffin of Nabucco??"
We learn from the article that one of the most persistent supporters of the gas project, started bypassing Russia in order to eliminate “Europe’s dependence on Russian gas imports”, is the European Commission, the EU executive body. In the financing of the project "Nabucco" invested up to 200 million euros. The article also states that if European politicians view Nabucco from the point of view of geo-strategy, then one of the potential participants of the project, BP, considers it with a cold commercial calculation. The shortened and cheaper project was called the Nabucco West. To abandon the project, which has lost a little in economic scope, but has not lost in the geostrategic sense in the least, is not going to be in Europe yet.
Qatar lives very well. This is a small country (11586 sq. Km) with a population of just 1,7 million. It receives revenues from the sale of gas (6-th place for export in the world) and oil (21-th place). Qatar ranks first in the world in terms of GDP per capita (over 93000 dollars). Recently, its residents broke the world record for the proportion of obese people in the country, overtaking the United States. Already more than half of Qataris are obese. Hassan Taiz, one of the inhabitants of the country, admits: “It's all because we just sit in Qatar, smoke and eat heavy food at fast-food restaurants. There is little work, everything is automated, and most of us spend time in offices and cars ”("Arguments and Facts").
"The country is inhabited by people who once came for a long dinar, and now embody their life doctrine, which turns out to be very primitive: eat and sleep," writes "TVNZ". In Qatar, the rial monetary unit is now, but this gluttony is not a hindrance.
However, in Qatar, which rolls like cheese and butter, where there are a lot of McDonald's, not everyone was so fat that they were able to think only about food and sleeping. Some people in the ruling circles, swallowing saliva, but courageously refusing another tasty donut or a second liter of sweet Coca-Cola, are building a rather substantial energy strategy. To the detriment of the interests of Russia, by the way. After all, Russia is doing the same as Qatar. No, no, we are not talking about traveling to McDonalds for double cheeseburgers, but about exporting gas and oil.
Unintended Qatari here are at one with the unripe Americans.
Doctor of Economics, head of the geo-economics department of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems and head of the ANNA information and analytical agency Marat Musin believes that at present the United States, engaging Qatar in “cooperation”, is implementing a geopolitical and economic strategy similar to that in 1980 yo was one of the global causes of the destruction of the USSR. If, at that time, oil prices hit (to 12 dollars per barrel) Saudi Arabia, now Qatar, controlled by the United States through Exxon Mobil, is engaged in gas.
Qatar was transferred to the United States (Exxon Mobil) and Britain (British Petroleum) advanced technologies for liquefying and transporting gas, which are ahead of Russia, according to M. Musin, are fifteen years old. Qatar has a “splendid fleet of special vessels 54 - gas carriers of the South Korean construction class Q-max (270 thousand tons of LNG) and Q-flex (166). But the risks of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz with Iran do not allow Qatar to replace Gazprom in the same Europe. For this, it is necessary to lay a gas pipeline, at least, to the Mediterranean Sea, and, as a maximum, through Turkey and on to Europe. In reality, this can be done only through the territory of Syria, which Iran’s strategic ally will never do. Note that the richest field in the North is located on the border of Qatar and Iran, where it is called South Pars ”(Marat Musin, "On the Eve").
The existence of the newest scenario of gas geopolitical "regrouping" Musin proves last year's events in Libya and the current vector of American politics in Syria.
Let me remind you that the Syrian world hegemon, with the help of its allies, including Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, is trying to democratize it, dividing it into the notorious “buffer zones” and “humanitarian corridors”. It should also be remembered that Israel and the United States are aggressively disposed towards Iran. Who knows if the anti-bunker bombs will fall on the Iranian hydrocarbon deposits instead of nuclear facilities? .. Let us return to Musin.
“The main reason for the events in the Middle East,” he said, “is the economic background, because it will determine the future of such countries as Russia, China, Iran and Germany. For the “energy superpower” of Russia and Iran, which is rich in hydrocarbons, today it seems natural to provide Europe and China with its energy resources. For the latter - to receive them from Russia, Iran and Algeria, regardless of the wishes of the United States. Including for the main EU economy in Germany. Qatar has already declared a price war to Gazprom, especially since the latter does not depend on gas transit countries ”(Marat Musin, "On the Eve"). And further: “In order to bring the streams to Europe from the south under the control of the US satellites, it is necessary to dismember Syria, coup in Algeria and bombard the Iranian fields. In Syria, there should be either the leadership of the country controlled by the Americans, or a part of the territory should leave as a buffer. That is, we are talking about dismemberment ”(same source). Mussin draws the following scenario: “gas isolation” of Russia through Qatar and Saudi Arabia using the “price-quality” economic lever. “Either they transfer liquefaction terminals to a safe zone in the Mediterranean,” Musin says, “or they will drag the gas pipeline further, but it is profitable to build it to 2 thousand km, then it is profitable to transport liquefied gas. The pressure will be very strong in the coming 12 months. Otherwise, if the Americans do nothing, many can get out of the dollar zone, start settlements in national currencies, create an international financial settlement system independent of the Americans ”(same source). Thus, for the implementation of the described strategy can be used a combined option associated with the transportation of liquefied gas by sea, and with the construction of a gas pipeline through the territory of Jordan and dismembered Syria to a friendly US Turkey.
As you know, Qatar is one of the long-time supporters of the weapons of the so-called Syrian opposition. “The ideological cover and mobilization of Islamist militants in Qatar is carried out by the Chairman of the World Council of Islamic Theologians Yusuf Al Qardawi, the former head of the Egyptian Muslim Brothers, whose strong influence on the Emir and the high degree of Russophobia cannot be underestimated. Especially considering his active support of the Chechen terrorists. That is why the Qatari Canal “Al Jazeera” deals with the problems of Syria from morning to evening, and the mountains from Qatar are transported by Qatar air forces to Jordan and Turkey. weapons for the “Syrian Free Army”, openly funded groups of Syrian terrorists and Islamic militants "(M. Musin, "ANNA").
As for the alleged cooperation of "Exxon Mobil" with Russia, that, according to Musin, is one sheer swindle. “Here we must understand whether we received projects on paper or real investments - these are different things. Qatar also promises us Yamal LNG, Ural Industrial - Ural Polar and other projects, but when it comes to money, it turns out that it’s all a linden. We are embroiled in expensive projects, we spend money, and when it comes down to business, it turns out that our partners have “thrown” us. As a result, we have debt problems, but they have nothing to do with it. Exxon Mobil is pursuing this active policy, and as the mouthpiece of American interests in the oil and gas sector, it will naturally try to control the processes both in Russia and in other countries ”(M. Musin, "On the Eve").
In words El murida“For some reason, Qatar constantly keeps Russia on a short leash, expressing interest in one, now in another, now in the third major investment project - as a result, refusing and starting to show interest in the next. Considering that there are not so many people who want to invest in the Russian economy, Qatar behaves like a rich uncle, waving a bundle of dollars in front of the Russian nomenklatura - while clearly chasing empty. ”
According to Musin, it turns out that with the current Exxon Mobil strategy, it’s also an American strategy, it’s also Qatariian, and due to allied hydrocarbon intentions and Saudi, the following series of measures is planned for Moscow’s economic opposition: 1) American oil and gas blockade of Russia through Qatar and Saudi Arabia; 2) the replacement of Russian gas supplies to Europe for the supply of US satellite countries (for this, Syria is being dismembered, democracy is being built in Algeria and Iranian fields are being bombed); 3) saving the dollar as one of the key currencies in the world, while preventing the creation of an alternative system of international settlements (such as, for example, the system of the BRICS countries, or at least a system of direct settlements in rubles and yuan). That is, we are dealing with a tough strategy ahead, designed to prevent the dollar from falling - the very one that everyone has already become accustomed to calling contemptuously "green paper" and which nevertheless remains one of the key currencies.
“The successful US implementation of these long-running plans,” writes M. Musin, “allows us to destroy the emerging bundle of euro - ruble and euro - yuan, make the yuan an ordinary regional currency, make Europe and Germany dependent on US energy supplies by the satellites, force Russia to surrender. Obviously, in such a situation, China will be forced to begin the direct annexation of Russian territories and resources, which will most likely lead to a military clash between two nuclear powers ... ”("ANNA").
According to Musin, today de-industrialization of Russia is preventing the effective counteraction of US plans. Our country would help solve the emerging geopolitical and economic problem: an alliance with Germany (the Germans give us high technology, we give them hydrocarbons for guaranteed supplies); strong strategic friendship with Syria, Iran, India and China; the creation of independent from the US international financial settlement systems. Otherwise, the planned combined blow to gas and oil, Russia will not suffer.
Already, Moscow has lost 3% of the gas market because Qatar supplies gas to Europe (Victoria Fomenko, Trud). That is, Qatar is going to gain a foothold in the European market for the supply of liquefied natural gas. Here he “enters into direct competition with Gazprom with its pipeline gas. For this purpose, an extensive infrastructure is being created: the creation of LNG terminals in Europe is being financed, the possibilities of entering European energy structures are being considered, and another huge sea port is being built and gas carriers under LNG are being built.
Soon 25 of Q-Max project supertankers laid on the stocks in Qatar, capable of transporting millions of cubic meters of 150 per flight, will become a powerful armada of expansion in foreign markets. This armada, considering that the American Exxon Mobil is looking over the shoulder of the Qatari producer, will be used to undermine Russia's status as a leading supplier of gas to Europe. There is an opinion that using such a powerful lever, the neoconservative lobby in Washington, which gives Russia, at best, the role of the United States vassal in the future confrontation with China, will try to force Moscow to abandon a completely independent foreign policy ... "(Vadim Vikhrov, Foundation for Strategic Culture).
"In the end, under the nose of" Gazprom ", - writes El murid- regasification terminals are rapidly being built in Europe - in the South, in the North, in England. A huge fleet of gas carriers is being built - and the Q-Max series of twenty-five copies is not the only and not the last. It should be understood that 50 billions of cubic meters of gas per year is, of course, just 5% of the European gas market, but we are talking about the fact that this is in addition to already working projects. And Qatar quietly and peacefully pulled back 6 percent of the European market to itself, as a result of which the share of Gazprom decreased from 26 to 24. But we should not forget about Libya, where Qatar densely sits on the Libyan gas, and most importantly - keep in mind Algeria, which is absolutely outrageous leads, though controlled, but in many ways and sovereign policy in the gas sphere. By all indications, Algeria is one of the following goals for democratization. By the time Qatar builds its fleet and creates the infrastructure for LNG supplies, the fate of Algeria will be decided. Anyway".
So, Russia has a place in the post-Syrian and post-Algerian world. And probably the Postiranian. However, while analysts are scaring us with their geopolitical forecasts, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad, ready to block the Strait of Hormuz, in which case Qatar is not alone, transports its goods to the European market, is skillfully negotiating with the “six”, and Syrian President Bashar Asad with his gratitude notes how Syrian opposition terrorists surrender to hundreds of winning armies. It seems that if Russia succeeds in retaining its influence in Syria - and for this it is necessary to continue to defend its position before the aggressive West - then the chances of surviving in the post-industrial world, which turned out to be, despite the predictions of futurologist Toffler, an ordinary industrial one, will be there. And there will be another reason to speed up economic ties with BRICS - against the backdrop of a general opposition to the dollar. And it would be nice to think about expanding the BRICS, including on a mineral-raw material basis ... What is OPEC in Russia when Syria and Iran could join BRICS? Is it inconvenient somehow from the point of view of international diplomacy - against the background of “nuclear” hysteria around Tehran? .. But it is convenient for the States wherever there is oil or gas. And if Russia does not come there - with the proposal of an ordinary union, by the way, and not for oil or gas - then sooner or later either the States or their obese satellites will be there.
So both Syria, in which UN observers are already operating (by the way, even slightly criticizing the opposition for attacks), and a formidable Iran, are quite serious obstacles to the implementation of the geo-economic plans of the United States and Qatar with the Saudis. And five percent of the Euromarket gas in Qatar is not so much. But Russia must keep its eyes open.
The fact is that, in addition to “deindustrialization,” Russia is preventing its beautiful life — well, yes, in the manner of a fat Qatar — and the behavior of Gazprom’s management, who does not seem to notice the emerging “competitive” problem. Other analysts see here, however, the problem is not so much Gazprom, as the “pro-American” government of Russia, others believe that the top managers of Gazprom are completely relatives and godfathers, and part-time members of the fifth column, still others believe that these top managers are simply incompetent; Musin simply states the fact: “They have not yet come out of these projects. Gazprom still does not understand that Qatar has thrown us. They only said that, guys, let's be friends, there will be so many billions "("On the Eve").
We honor El murida:
“The paradox of the situation is that a powerful and highly resourced structure - financial, human, administrative, lobbying and so on - the structure of Gazprom is completely helpless in the field of foreign intelligence. In the field of strategic forecasting. <…>
... No action to advance - only a reaction to events. There is only one explanation for this - there is no normal corporate intelligence service and an analytical forecast.
At the same time, it is precisely in the area of counterintelligence that Gazprom has everything in perfect order - in any case, there are no high-profile punctures with leaks, there are no rushes of top personnel, an active struggle is being waged within the corporation against sent Cossacks, with talkers and so on. <...> With the external level, apparently, it is just a disaster.
In my opinion, now for Gazprom (and for Russia) there is a vital task, even with a delay, but adequately and precisely ahead of schedule to destroy plans to seize Gazprom's markets - and first of all, in Europe. ”
El Murid suggests Gazprom to create an analytical center that responds to external threats. Secondly, Gazprom (as if together with Russia) must determine its strategic allies. In Europe, it is the Germany mentioned above, in Asia it is also the mentioned Syria, Iran and China. Well, in Africa, the mentioned Algeria.
(That's right: everyone who is against the dangerous geopolitical game of the United States needs to be friends with Russia. And Russia is to be friends with them. The common enemy rallies, you know).
Finally, El Murid offers no special ceremony in corporate wars. Polite competition - was it ever there? .. Therefore, it is proposed to use those who are not too fat in Qatar - 15% of the Shiite population, who come from Iran. This is a “color revolution” in Qatar that Iran could initiate.
Since our ambassador was beaten in Qatar, we at least have a reason for a competitive response. El Murid believes that the ambassador’s beating is, in essence, the same as a naval vessel’s attack or sabotage on the territory.
As for Gazprom (El Murid harmoniously passes from it to Russia), then “it is here that the selfish interests of the nomenklatura coincide with the state ones. It is the war with Qatar today - this is the point of consensus, which can quite well without mental spasm explain the unity of power and society. Qatar encroached not only on Russian interests - it robs our nomenclature. Selecting acquired by overwork. For whom did our oligarchs revolutionize 91? For whom did they flood Moscow with 93 and put a half-drunk half-half on 96 on the throne? For the natives of al-Thani, or what? "
Ii. Bypass!
A reduction in the “dependence” of the European Union on Gazprom (read: Europe on Russia) is also planned in a different way, in which Germany’s “natural” buyer of Russian gas comes close to a competitive pipe. True, this path is no less complicated than the idea of dismembering Syria, bombing Iran, occupying Algeria and making Qatar the world's leading gas supplier.
We are talking about the planned construction of the Nabucco gas pipeline.
From the huge gas pipeline 3,9 length, thousand km (from the Caspian Sea to Austria), its entertainers refused at the beginning of 2012.
In January, US State Department Special Representative for Europe and Asia (there is such a yes) Richard Morningstar, speaking at the conference "Natural Gas and the Energy Future of Ukraine", said: "It has recently become clear that from a financial and temporary from the point of view it is harder to realize ”("Russian newspaper"). The implementation of the project will require long-term labor costs. In addition, the pipeline is unlikely to be filled to 100%.
Then, in mid-March 2012, the Financial Times reported that “the cut-down version of the pipeline, called Nabucco West, was approved by the majority of the project shareholders, in which the Austrian OMV Gas & Power GmbH participates with equal shares of 16,67%, Hungarian MOL, Bulgarian Bulgargaz, Romanian Transgaz, Turkish Botas and German RWE Supply & Trading GmbH. It is noteworthy that the Nabucco West project was also presented by British BP, which is not among the shareholders of Nabucco, but is interested in transporting gas from the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field "(Alexander Shustov, Foundation for Strategic Culture).
All these gentlemen assume that the gas supply to Europe, including Germany, will not be Russia, but Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan bypassing Russia. This strategic bypass maneuver in the economic language was called the diversification of the “energy supply routes of the European Union” (Alexey Chichkin, Rossiyskaya Gazeta). A major discussion on the “diversified” supply of Turkmen gas to Europe took place at the “Turkmenistan - Europe: Prospects for Cooperation” forum, which ended on March 16 in Berlin. The head of the European Commission's Energy Directorate, Jean Arnold Vinoy, speaking on behalf of the European Commissioner for Energy, Günther Oettinger, said that it would be most expedient to supply the EU with energy through the Southern Gas Corridor, which should be part of the Nabucco gas pipeline. Gas will go to Europe through a pipe through Azerbaijan and Turkey. Vinua urged Ashkhabad to hurry with the decision, expressing fears that other gas players - for example, Russia, Iraq, Iran - would not pull the cat by the tail. However, what they can do, he did not specify.
But Bairamgeldi Nedirov, minister of oil and gas industry and mineral resources of Turkmenistan, confused the cards to Western players.
According to A. Chichkin, the Minister "noted that" it is planned to increase gas production to 2030 billion cubic meters a year by 230, of which it is planned to export 180 billion. " At the same time, he made it clear that Turkmenistan is interested in deliveries to Russia: “The main buyers of Turkmen gas are Russia, China and Iran. Preparation for the start of the construction of a gas pipeline through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India is being completed. ”
As for the European direction, Nedirov did not say anything concrete here, and only diplomatically mentioned that "the process of substantive discussion of the pipeline in the direction of Europe has significantly intensified recently."
Thus, if Nabucco decided to solve the problem with the future resource base (with 100% content) by shortening the future gas pipeline, they cannot solve the negotiation problem with Turkmenistan - although Ashgabat is not refusing the idea of building a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea as such (having, by the way, contradictions with Azerbaijan - about supply quotas).
Another difficulty with the construction of a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea: the issue of the legal status of this sea is not resolved. This inland water basin is not subject to international maritime law. "The water surface and the bottom of the sea are still not demarcated," writes A. Shustov, - therefore, the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline looks incomprehensible from both legal and practical points of view. ”
But the European Union is not going to give up its “diversification” bypass ideas (as well as the USA - from its own). True, the German company RWE announced in February that its Nabucco enthusiasm could come to naught, and the Turkish Ministry of Energy ceased to consider the Nabucco project a priority (G. Lomsadze, Eurasianet), but it still does not speak about the “funeral” of a geopolitical idea of infringing Russian interests.
In the newspaper Financial Times, in the "Brussels Blog" for 22 in March, an article by Joshua Chaffef "Another nail in the coffin of Nabucco??"
We learn from the article that one of the most persistent supporters of the gas project, started bypassing Russia in order to eliminate “Europe’s dependence on Russian gas imports”, is the European Commission, the EU executive body. In the financing of the project "Nabucco" invested up to 200 million euros. The article also states that if European politicians view Nabucco from the point of view of geo-strategy, then one of the potential participants of the project, BP, considers it with a cold commercial calculation. The shortened and cheaper project was called the Nabucco West. To abandon the project, which has lost a little in economic scope, but has not lost in the geostrategic sense in the least, is not going to be in Europe yet.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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