Military Review

Americans wedge wedge between Iran and Russia

36
According to prominent foreign experts, relations between Iran and Russia are not going through a cloudless phase. On the contrary, the stability of relations between Moscow and Tehran remains unclear: uncertainty is characteristic of partnership. Relations are not getting stronger, but only “survive”, and this is due to the conflicting strategic vision of the parties in the Middle East.




January 10 Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met in Moscow with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. The parties discussed a resolution on the civil war in Syria and talked about the intention of US President Donald Trump to suspend a “nuclear deal” with Iran, concluded under B.H. Obama. Mr. Zarif highly appreciated Russia's resolute support for the nuclear agreement reached at the time with Iran, and noted the readiness of both countries to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria.

Despite the fact that this meeting of Zarif with Lavrov was aimed just at demonstrating the strength of the Russian-Iranian alliance to the international community, the long-term sustainability of relations between Moscow and Tehran remains unclear, says Samuel Ramani, teacher at St. Anthony's College at Oxford University, he is a regular contributor to the major publications The Washington Post, The Diplomat and The National Interest, as well as the EastWest Institute's innovation policy blog.

The expert expressed his opinion on the far from unclouded relations of Iran with Russia in view of the contradictory interests of the parties in the Middle East "The Diplomat".

As the author believes, the uncertainty associated with the "survival" of the Russian-Iranian partnership should be explained by contradictions in the strategic vision of the parties to the regional system in the Middle East itself.

Russia's strategic vision, Ramani indicates, is mainly focused on eliminating sources of instability and preventing US military intervention. From the point of view of Moscow, Washington contributes to the creation of failed states (failed states). The Russian government justified its military Syrian intervention in September 2015 as a necessary measure to restore stability and keep Washington from using force to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. Russia views its Syrian campaign as an “integral step towards achieving its broader goal of becoming an indispensable guarantor of collective security in the Middle East,” the author believes.

As for Iranian politicians, they extol the role of Tehran as a "stabilizing force in the Middle East." For them, collective security is only the peripheral goal of a common strategic vision. Iran is primarily focused on expanding its sphere of influence in the Middle East and building capacity to counter Saudi Arabia in the Arab world. These expansionist goals, Ramani points out, are forcing Iran to actively cooperate "with the warring non-state actors" and to participate in such hostilities that "undermine the effectiveness of political settlement initiatives supported by Moscow."

And such significant differences in order to threaten to destroy Russian-Iranian cooperation in Syria.

The expert considers the conflict widely: not only in the military, but also in the diplomatic phase. Yes, the Russian military highly appreciated the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s troops during military operations, but Iran’s use of Syria’s territory to create permanent transit for Hezbollah’s weapons alarmed Russian politicians who “strive to maintain strong relations with Israel.”

Iran does not want to cease hostilities in Syria until Assad wins complete victory. Iran’s conviction of a military solution in Syria makes it a less desirable partner (compared to Russia) for diplomatic engagement with the Syrian opposition or Kurdish factions. That is why the scale of the Moscow-Tehran partnership, including negotiations, is limited.

Prospects for constructive cooperation between Russia and Iran to resolve other conflicts in Yemen and Afghanistan, too, do not look brilliant, the analyst believes.

In Yemen, the already tense relations between Russia and the rebels, based in Iran, deteriorated even more after the assassination of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh on December 5. This tension prompted Moscow to establish closer ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to resolve the crisis.

The divergence of goals, continues Ramani, limits the possibilities of cooperation between Russia and Iran and in Afghanistan. Russia is in a hurry with the Afghan political settlement, which includes the Taliban as a party (by the way, the organization is banned in Russia), writes Mr. Ramani. Iran also wants to achieve a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan in the long term by military means, that is, providing military assistance to the Taliban forces near its borders. Russian politicians are concerned that Tehran may interfere with the Afghan peace process.

There are divergent interests, which leads to a weakening of the partnership between Russia and Iran.

The strength of ties between Moscow and Tehran can also be greatly influenced by US policy. As the former US ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, rightly noted in August 2017, the re-introduction of a tough US sanctions regime against Iran, if the White House refuses a “nuclear deal,” could force Tehran to “resolutely tune” to Moscow.

* * *


Thus, one should hardly expect to strengthen Russia's relations with Iran in the near future, and especially in the long-term, when it comes to the restoration of Syria and the “order” in the Middle East. Russia will be especially difficult because Iran is a local ally of Syria, and Russia is far away.

In addition, despite the fact that the Russian military is closely cooperating with the Iranian armed forces, and Russian diplomats support Iran in the UN Security Council, Moscow is also confronted with the divergent regional interests of Iran and Israel, also linked to Syria. This is indicated, for example, by Gil Yaron, a newspaper correspondent «Die Welt» in the middle east. And the conflict events of recent days confirm this opinion.

However, if Mr. Trump, prone to fever, and really go to break the "nuclear deal" of the mediating countries with Iran, Iran will have to turn to Russia not sideways, but face. Those who are “sanctioned” can unite against those who “sanction” them. The only question is what scale will this union take. In any case, it is difficult to imagine that after the Syrian achievements, Tehran will abandon the role of the new regional hegemon. Rather, he will claim to be a hegemon with a bomb. Nuclear

Foreign experts, of course, understand this. That is why some of them do not advise Mr. Trump to put pressure on Iran directly. Another thing is to try to find the cracks in the weakened cooperation of Iran and Russia and carefully expand them.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
36 comments
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  1. antiamerikan
    antiamerikan 15 February 2018 06: 24
    +2
    nedozhdyotes
    1. Hanokem
      Hanokem 15 February 2018 07: 10
      +4
      Having Iran as an ally is extremely unreliable. Indeed, the interests of Iran and Russia at this stage do not coincide
      1. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 15 February 2018 12: 05
        +9
        Quote: Hanokem
        Having Iran as an ally is extremely unreliable. Indeed, the interests of Iran and Russia at this stage do not coincide

        At this stage, interests coincide, as they are aimed at reducing US influence in solving the Syrian problem. But in the medium term, of course, there are disagreements regarding the post-war structure of Syria and the distribution of influence in the region. There, everyone strives to try on the crown of the main regional player - Turkey, Iran, S. Arabia, Israel, which the United States will most likely use to ensure that the "candidates", measured by the "processes", systematically sort out the relationship. Moreover, each of the future "brawlers" can communicate with each other not directly, but exclusively through an intermediary, whose role is best suited by Russia, which has maintained contacts with everyone. Strategically, the role of the main “decimal” in this region is closer to us than the role of some kind of “chief”.
      2. GRF
        GRF 15 February 2018 13: 10
        +1
        Quote: Hanokem
        Having Iran as an ally is extremely unreliable. Indeed, the interests of Iran and Russia at this stage do not coincide

        The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of the quoted expert ...

        The wonders of propaganda, however ...
      3. Alber
        Alber 15 February 2018 19: 32
        +2
        Quote: Hanokem
        Having Iran as an ally is extremely unreliable. Indeed, the interests of Iran and Russia at this stage do not coincide

        Of course, the friendship of Russia with Iran is not beneficial for Jews. There hatred of the Persians comes from ancient times at the genetic level and they will bring down all even their temporary allies. They will go out of their way to spoil normal relations. They will constantly interfere in Russia's relations with Iran and endlessly throw feces at them ...
        1. tihonmarine
          tihonmarine 15 February 2018 23: 41
          +1
          Russia also wants to live well with Iran, and kisses Israel, but also flirts with Europe. The game is dangerous.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 15 February 2018 16: 19
      +1
      It is strange to talk about Iran’s relations with Russia at a time when China appointed Iran as its strategic partner. Therefore, all negotiations between Russia and Iran will pass only through the Chinese box office. But they don’t let us out of turn to this window.winked
    3. Julio Jurenito
      Julio Jurenito 16 February 2018 12: 05
      0
      Articles by Oleg Chuvakin are an attempt to turn VO into a branch of Inosmi - all the articles of foreign “analytes” of dubious injury. Thank you, don’t - if we want to read Inosmi, we ourselves will go to Inosmi.
      It's time to stop.
  2. Wolka
    Wolka 15 February 2018 06: 28
    0
    in a word, "East is a delicate matter" ...
  3. aybolyt678
    aybolyt678 15 February 2018 07: 08
    0
    They love to be friends only with the strong and rich
    1. GRF
      GRF 15 February 2018 13: 14
      +1
      Quote: aybolyt678
      They love to be friends only with the strong and rich

      I agree, but I'm not so out of harm ...
  4. Evil543
    Evil543 15 February 2018 07: 14
    +2
    Yes, the Jews are to blame for everything, 100%, do not go to a fortuneteller. : wassat wassat


    Sarcasm
  5. oracul
    oracul 15 February 2018 07: 14
    +2
    The struggle and unity of opposites is a source of development. This is dialectical materialism, this is the law. So the presence of contradictions is normal, since the vision of what is happening on the part of various actors does not coincide - there are interests of their own. Therefore, goodness should not be expected from any side. On the contrary, one must always remember that not only differences in goals, in strategy, in tactics can arise, but they will undoubtedly arise. Therefore, we must always work tirelessly so as not to be amazed in the future that the positions do not coincide.
    1. andj61
      andj61 15 February 2018 17: 10
      0
      Quote: oracul
      The struggle and unity of opposites is a source of development. This is dialectical materialism, this is the law.

      Interesting idea. A student anecdote recalled:
      - What is the difference between mat and diamate?
      - Mat everyone knows, but in a cultural society bully they try it laughing do not consume.
      No one knows the diamat, but in a cultural society they try to emphasize his knowledge.
      - What is the similarity between mat and diamate?
      “This is a formidable weapon in the hands of the proletariat!” hi
  6. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 15 February 2018 07: 24
    +3
    As for the expert, it’s clear that the Americans really want this to be so. Perhaps there are problems, I'm not a diplomat and it's hard to judge, but so far we are working hand in hand in Syria and this is already good.
    try to find cracks in the weakened cooperation between Iran and Russia and carefully expand them.
    The United States, in search of cracks and the creation of such, may themselves find themselves in a hole dug by them (a crack).
  7. M. Michelson
    M. Michelson 15 February 2018 07: 28
    0
    In fact, the unexpected alliance between Russia and Iran did not begin with Syria; he has been going since the 90s. So, if there are any tensions, most likely, he will survive them.
  8. akunin
    akunin 15 February 2018 07: 56
    0
    Iran and Turkey are two regional states claiming a major role in the region. Russia they need to solve current problems and no more. Friendship will not. Let Iran masturbate Saudi Arabia and Israel and vice versa. Do not take someone's side.
  9. The comment was deleted.
  10. Molot1979
    Molot1979 15 February 2018 11: 21
    +6
    It would be better if Oleg Chuvakin wrote an article about the real problems and achievements of the Russian-Iranian partnership. And to comment on some freak from Oxford? But what the hell is it for? This Oxford "iksperd" sets out not so much an analysis of reality, as his own and English Wishlist on the topic. Naturally, in these Wishlist the alliance of Moscow and Tehran is about to fall apart, and the Anglo-Saxons will again return to BV as the main force.
  11. Some kind of compote
    Some kind of compote 15 February 2018 14: 00
    +16
    A wedge will be driven into the crack
    Scary to imagine laughing
  12. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 15 February 2018 14: 42
    +3
    No wonder in our area they say: "If you go to bed with dogs in the evening, don't be surprised in the morning that you got up with fleas."
    1. Alber
      Alber 15 February 2018 19: 44
      +3
      Quote: A. Privalov
      No wonder in our area they say: "If you go to bed with dogs in the evening, don't be surprised in the morning that you got up with fleas."

      Why do you hate all other nations and especially the Slavs, Persians, Tajiks?
      Of course, you will sing that this is not so, but your Catechism of the Jew and Shulchan Aruch, as well as Tania, say the opposite. They teach Jews to hate non-Jews, insulting them with the last words
      1. A. Privalov
        A. Privalov 15 February 2018 20: 59
        0
        Quote: Alber
        Quote: A. Privalov
        No wonder in our area they say: "If you go to bed with dogs in the evening, don't be surprised in the morning that you got up with fleas."

        Why do you hate all other nations and especially the Slavs, Persians, Tajiks?
        Of course, you will sing that this is not so, but your Catechism of the Jew and Shulchan Aruch, as well as Tania, say the opposite. They teach Jews to hate non-Jews, insulting them with the last words

        What are you singing? I have neither voice nor hearing. But you forgot to mention the Eskimos and cyclists. This is indicated by our Kama Sutra and Upanishads. But the Australian Aboriginal and Sioux Indians, we welcome the first words. This is how we are told in the story of Gilgamesh. hi
        1. Ber
          Ber 16 February 2018 08: 48
          +1
          And here you are, forgot to mention the Eskimos and cyclists. This is evidenced by our Kamasutra and the Upanishads. But Australian Aboriginal and Sioux Indians we welcome in the first words. This is what was told to us in the legend of Gilgamesh. hi


          You just insulted the Indians by combining two incompatible names Kama Sutras with a capital letter and .. Upanishad with a small letter.

          And you'll be twisted, trying to depict misunderstanding with the help of capital words,

          type and with what? Did I insult this?

          Put someone in a pose from the Kama Sutra, and send in words towards the genitals,
          on .. for example

          it’s the same thing, just the first more subtle insult, and the second a gross insult.

          Since the Kama Sutra says only one thing .... how to properly pose a woman ......

          Is it that you have such jokes? or in hutspe overtrained?
    2. petyaivolk
      petyaivolk 16 February 2018 08: 38
      0
      Quote: A. Privalov
      No wonder they say in our area

      It’s you who said softly about Chuvakin, this one doesn’t take the road.
      But even more surprising - our meetings at the g * vnno-master hi
    3. Alber
      Alber 16 February 2018 22: 32
      0
      Quote: A. Privalov
      No wonder in our area they say: "If you go to bed with dogs in the evening, don't be surprised in the morning that you got up with fleas."

      And yet I wanted to ask you: how normal people did not try to sleep? Those. with people!
      And then some sleep with donkeys, you are with dogs ...
  13. 1536
    1536 15 February 2018 14: 51
    0
    Russia must forever gain a foothold in Syria and control the Mediterranean Sea. In this, both Iran and Israel interfere. Therefore, as the famous character of the "spy" comedy of the Soviet era said: "Hands up, both (in the original" wallpaper ")!" This should be the policy of Russia in relation to the above countries.
  14. Monarchist
    Monarchist 15 February 2018 15: 58
    +3
    Who, besides Chuvakin, will pay attention to the secondary teacher of some defense college. In my opinion, this Repair is like Sidorov: a leading teacher of 1 vocational school in Muhoska. At home, is it a quantity, but at the national level?
    But what is this Ramoni so far so is that Iran is solving its strategic tasks in the Middle East, but excuse me this is natural.
    It is also natural that it is in the interests of the United States to embroil us with Iran. And Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart Zarif perfectly understand what big uncles are thinking on the other side of the ocean
  15. q75agent
    q75agent 15 February 2018 16: 15
    +3
    mattresses don’t even have to do anything, rats are in our Foreign Ministry .... Deputy Ambassador of Russia in Tel Aviv Leonid Frolov said that in the event of a real Iranian attack on Israel, the Russian authorities would side with the latter.

    Moscow supports Israel’s right to self-defense from Iran if it really posed a threat to the security of the Jewish state. “In the event of aggression against Israel, not only the United States would stand on the Israeli side - Russia would also be on its side,” said Frolov, “Many of our compatriots live here in Israel, and Israel, as a whole, is a (Russian) friendly state so that we would not allow aggression against Israel. "

    At the same time, the Russian diplomat expressed doubt that Iran was behind the invasion of drones into Israeli airspace, and suggested that the Israeli secret services establish contact with their Syrian counterparts.
    1. Okolotochny
      Okolotochny 15 February 2018 19: 16
      +5
      By the way, look who met Netanyahu during his last visit to Moscow? Putin, Lavrov, Ushakov (GDP assistant for international affairs, this is understandable). But what did Dvorkovich do there? Not Medvedev !!! His deputy in the financial and economic block. The range of issues is related to Syria. And this one is in a bale.
  16. businessv
    businessv 15 February 2018 16: 43
    0
    Oleg, as usual, thanks for the detailed review! What else can we expect from Samuel Ramani, a college professor and regular contributor to the major publications The Washington Post, The Diplomat, and The National Interest? Of course, only a pro-Western look, otherwise no one will read it. Relations between Russia and Iran have been, and remain, in the zone "to the extent of mutual interests." Iran practically did not take part in the active phase of the hostilities, but wants to take part in the post-war settlement, construction and get its preferences from the union state, which is quite natural, in my opinion. Therefore, together with Russia they will solve problems together as they become available.
  17. 16112014nk
    16112014nk 15 February 2018 20: 54
    0
    In any contacts with Iran, one must remember Griboedov.
  18. high
    high 15 February 2018 22: 21
    0
    15.02.2018/XNUMX/XNUMX .... If Iran attacked Israel, Moscow would become a side of the Jewish state.[/ i] [i]
    In the event of aggression against Israel, not only the United States will side with Israel, but also Russia, ”said Russian Deputy Ambassador to Tel Aviv Leonid Frolov .....
    Alas, Iran is afraid to attack Israel clearly, the result is known, Iran is dangerous by financing terrorism and its participation in terrorism, not only in the Middle East.
    Iran, even in Argentina, blows up Israeli organizations, and the Head of Argentine Intelligence SIDE, Hugo Ansorregi, said the organizer of the attack is Hezbollah and Iran. Former Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Wahidi has been put on the international wanted list.
  19. Ber
    Ber 16 February 2018 08: 29
    +2
    The expert considers the conflict widely: not only in the military, but also in the diplomatic phase. Yes, the Russian military highly appreciated the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s troops during military operations, but Iran’s use of Syria’s territory to create permanent transit for Hezbollah’s weapons alarmed Russian politicians who “strive to maintain strong relations with Israel.”


    Russia and Iran have no fundamental contradictions, they have the oligarchs of Jews with dual citizenship of Russia and Israel, who rob the people of Russia, and pay the Foreign Ministry, who also have relatives in Israel, got .... already. How can people be accepted for public service defending the interests of the country in which their relatives live, and not the country of which you are a citizen?

    How will a person holding citizenship of Israel and Russia in the event of a direct war between Russia and Israel? Be faithful to the citizenship of Israel will become a traitor to Russia, and if he is faithful to the citizenship of Russia,
    will become a traitor to Israel.

    That is, anyone who defends the law on dual citizenship, Russia-USA, Russia-Israel, Russia-England, is a traitor in the literal sense of the word. So the contradictions at the household level, wound up by the economic contradictions of business, and reach the level of states.

    Israel is the main ally of the enemy of Russia, the United States, and with a friend of the enemy it is not possible to even dialogue without betraying their own national interests.

    Iran is Russia's geopolitical ally, since if the USA can do what they could in Iraq, then we will get the likeness of igil on the shores of the Caspian Sea and on the border of our direct allies, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

    And this is more important than any severance of relations with Israel, to be honest they would not go to ........ xp .... nnnn.

    The United States is doing everything to destroy the territorial integrity of Russia, like a friend of the United States, Israel does not help this?
  20. Igor Anatolievich
    Igor Anatolievich 16 February 2018 11: 13
    +2
    Is it time for Russia to decide who it is? In words, the Kremlin is allegedly pursuing an independent policy. In fact, the USA and Israel allow themselves to destroy military supplies with impunity. Kill our people. And in the government and the media there is a dominance of Zionists and agents of influence of foreign intelligence services. respect Russia and bind themselves with allied obligations. Until they expel the goat-bearded rabbis from the Kremlin. TsRUshnikov. thieves and just pro-Western licking. Iran is an independent state and will seek equals.
  21. Zina389
    Zina389 16 February 2018 16: 31
    +1
    The USSR helped Saddam Hussein water Iran. Then the United States killed Hussein and Russia was forced to switch to Iran. But even pensioners rejoice, how cleverly our former students, Iraqi officers, are taking over American Iraq. And then the students created the IS and attacked Syria ... Now there is no IS that they fought together with Iran, but Iran is not going to leave Syria. If so, then others will not leave her. If this is Russia's interest, then we must continue in the same spirit until there is nothing left of Syria.
  22. Buravchik
    Buravchik 19 February 2018 12: 22
    0
    Russia itself will drive a wedge between Iran and Russia. Russia's ambassador to Israel has already stated that in a possible conflict between Iran and Israel, Russia will side with Israel. What other wedges are needed.