Donbass unwinding in the light of the law "On Reintegration" and the Euphoria of Kiev from the "KREMLIN REPORT"
While numerous Russian and foreign observers, political scientists and military experts, with bated breath, continue to closely monitor the situation in the northern part of the Syrian theater, where the Kurdish troops YPG and YPJ in the canton of Afrin with incredible heroism and tactical savvy every day deprive the main combat tanks and manpower many times superior to the aggressor’s army, not allowing pro-Turkish terrorist groups to unite into a single “Northern Front”, no less important military-political news started coming from the troubled Donbass. Today, the operational situation along the contact line, as well as the degree of total incompetence of Kiev and the West on the diplomatic front, can be categorized as having passed the point of no return to a constructive dialogue that could lead to the peace process of transferring the LDNR of the remaining territories of the former Lugansk and Donetsk regions, It is held until January 18 2018.
The so-called bill No. XXUMX “On the Reintegration of Donbass”, adopted by 18, nullified any opportunities to achieve consensus between Donetsk, Lugansk, Moscow and Kiev in the framework of the “Minsk format”, the mention of which, judging by the latest press approach by the people's deputy from The Poroshenko Bloc of Ivan Vinnyk immediately after the vote was withdrawn from the “presidential text”. Thus, all the agreements adopted in subsequent meetings of the Tripartite Contact Group will no longer represent any serious legal significance for Kiev, and all the more, they will not become a guarantor for the observance of the “silence regime” on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As a matter of fact, even before the adoption of the above-mentioned draft law, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for more than 7163 years initiated regular failures of dozens of pseudo-surrogates announced under the auspices of “Minsk”, and also caused thousands of deaths among the peaceful population of Donbass. Now, after the aggravation of the situation, it will be extremely difficult, if not to say impossible, to rein in the Ukrainian side by means of the “Minsk” diplomatic levers.
As it is known, the main reason for the ratification of the above-mentioned document (the so-called “reintegration” bill) was the confirmation by Washington and Ottawa of powerful military-technical support in case the army units of NM LDNR take serious countermeasures against the Ukrainian aggression with the use of the “Northern wind”. Support was expressed in the December bills adopted by the Government of Canada, as well as by the US Congress and the White House, providing for the supply of various types of lethal force to the army weapons, including Barret M82A1 rifles, numerous types of RPGs, as well as TOW-2A / B and FGM -148 "Javelin" anti-tank missile systems. As a result, the American "hawks" almost completely achieved the fulfillment of the task set in the Masonic lodges for drawing Russia into a long-playing and exhausting military confrontation in the Donbass and possibly the entire South Ukrainian theaters of military operations.
In the circles of the Russian political elite, it is very fashionable today to talk about the so-called “reconciliation of watches” after each of the many hours-long meeting between Assistant to the President of Russia Vladislav Surkov and the special representative of the US State Department for Ukrainian Affairs, Kurt Walker. In reality, all this is more like an empty pastime, because the State Department, the Pentagon and the Trump administration have long decided who Walker will actually “check watches” with: it is the illegitimate President of Ukraine P. Poroshenko, the secretary of the National Security Council and A. Turchinov (one of the main guarantors of the punitive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass), finally, is the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Muzhenko, who today almost all armed provocations are carried out, carrying off s lives of civilians and personnel of the corps of the People’s Militia of LDNR. It should be noted that the meeting between Volcker and Muzhenko is already a very extraordinary and alarming event against the background of consultations with Vladislav Surkov. What is the purpose of the conversations of a supposedly high-ranking “peaceful” negotiator with the head of the General Staff of the Supreme Court? Naturally, this is not a consideration of the mechanisms for the peaceful settlement of the situation, but at least the coordination of the tactics of actions of the Supreme Court of Ukraine in the event of a counter-offensive operation of the Armed Forces of the LDNR after the Kiev escalation has begun. And very soon we got the opportunity to verify this.
It was K. Volker, 28 on January 2018 of the year that promulgated the start of procedures for sending “Javelins” to the Square, noting that the preparation of vehicles, storage facilities, equipment and software for technical support and operator training will take some time. Such statements finally convinced us that the main ward of Tillerson on Ukraine and the “student” John McCain in the legal field in 1997-1998 is the main official link in Washington’s double game with Moscow. A week and a half before this statement, made by Volker in an interview with Radio Liberty, the Ukrainian Armed Forces significantly increased the intensity of shelling of DPR settlements (including firing from the 30-mm automatic cannon 2А42 residential areas of Dokuchaevsk) and organized a provocation with shelling of the voyage bus "Etalon" near KPVV "Elenovka", during which killed 57-year-old man. These events became an omen for the whole of Donbass, demonstrating the imminent aggravation of the operational situation against the background of the adoption by the Verkhovna Rada of the above-mentioned draft law No. 7163; but this is only half the battle, because a much more disturbing observation is a kind of “chronological layering” of the dates of important military-political events from February to March of the year 2018.
In particular, 22 of January, Deputy Head of the OSCE SMM Alexander Hug, who visited Mariupol, informed local journalists and local authorities about the possible termination of the Special Monitoring Mission in Donbas as early as March of the expiration of the mandate issued by the OSCE 21 in March 2014 of the year . Moreover, the restoration and extension of the mandate will require the unanimous approval of all 57 member countries of the organization, which may not happen, since far from all “players” are interested in this; indeed, despite the rather pronounced pro-Ukrainian position of the organization’s employees, as well as their frequent “attacks” with intelligence on the territory of the republics and the transfer of the detected positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, diametrically opposed assessments of the situation by the OSCE are happening. Thus, in recent incidents involving the shelling of a regular bus from 7,62-mm PCM and residential buildings in Dokuchaevsk - from the main caliber BMP-2, the monitoring mission flatly refused to testify in favor of the Ukrainian military formations, giving out false information about the direction of fire impact on the above objects. Naturally, the presence of the SMM in the Donbass is not convenient either for the United States, or for Canada, or for Kiev, because the West losing in Syria is in dire need of a “bloody blitzkrieg” in Donbas, and the OSCE presence here is absolutely “not the topic.”
But the international peacekeeping contingent of the United Nations is perfectly suited, for the deployment of which the Russian leadership and the leaderships of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics are all trying to unleash the special representative Kurt Volker, Tillerson, as well as heads and representatives of numerous US departments. So, despite the clear statements of numerous Russian high-ranking officials about the inadmissibility of deploying a UN contingent throughout the Donbass, including the Russian-Ukrainian border (recall that this is another trick to “block arteries” of military-technical support and logistics from the Southern Military District at the time of the onset of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ), Volker, “resting his horn,” continues to cram a concept unaccepted by Moscow, Donetsk and Lugansk, discussing it with Poroshenko (Valtsman), then with Turchinov. What does he hope for?
First of all, this is the so-called “Kremlin report”, which may come into force just in March, when the OSCE plans to curtail its mission in the Donbas theater of operations. Here we can trace a clear dependence, where, by promulgating the “Kremlin list” of the largest Russian businessmen and 96 politicians from 114, as well as the “secret list” of even more minor officials and millionaires (the US Treasury plans to apply sanctions first) They want to make Moscow much more compliant. In other words, all the hopes and aspirations of the State Department are based on an attempt to intimidate the Russian establishment by imposing comprehensive sanctions on existing foreign private property and the assets of the heads of all departments of the Russian leadership. Also, according to the American hawks, this report gives our leadership a short period of time (from 1 to 3 months) to dramatically soften our position on crucial geostrategic issues, one of which, naturally, is the situation in Donetsk and Luhansk republics. Here, the States are counting on a rematch with an unconditional victory, consisting in the earliest possible cleansing of the Donbass from any carriers of Russian ideology, and everything that has been in our hearts for centuries. Russia, on the other hand, is being shackled hand and foot with the help of various sanction lists, forcing the main negotiators to sign off on the draft resolution on the introduction of UN peacekeepers drawn up in Washington and Kiev.
In the event of disagreement on such a losing and shameful scenario for Moscow, the “Kremlin report” with all its “secret tabs” is planned to be partially activated. And we must be ready for this. Otherwise, the ratings of our country, as superpowers, in the eyes of the main "players" will drop to unacceptable indicators, and there will be a chance to go "to the outskirts of the big game." Demonstration of "softness" in these matters is fraught with extremely serious problems. However, at the moment, the reaction of official Moscow to the “Kremlin report” remains extremely balanced and restrained. While the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, called the appearance of the report “unprecedented” and pointed out the need for a thorough analysis of possible consequences if ratified, State Duma Deputy Speaker Peter Tolstoy equated the effectiveness of this document to “sanctions against Khryusha and Stepashky”, on which there are also grounds.
A day earlier, January 29, 2018, K. Volker reported on Russia's readiness to introduce an armed “peacekeeping” mission to the Donbass, including the entire LDNR territory and a section of the Russian border. This became known from the Ukrainian resource "Ukrinform". It is still difficult to say on what this bold conclusion of an official from the State Department is based on, given that the representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry did not give any reason for such a thoughtless opinion; According to the “Yugoslav scenario,” there can be no talk of any Pro-peace peacekeepers near our borders. Perhaps this statement by Volcker is a kind of “information worm” aimed at encouraging the Russian leadership to adopt a model for gaining control over the Donbas republics that is beneficial for the White House under the simultaneous pressure of the above sanctions reports. However, this will not be so easy. First, by no means all the assets of politicians and businessmen listed in the Kremlin report are openly available to OFAC, a division of the US Treasury headed by Stephen Mnouchin, of the Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Secondly, “freezing” even OFAC’s accounts available to participants in the Kremlin report, or imposing sanctions on staffing “players” who cooperate with our state and private structures, will cause enormous economic damage to the United States and affect their own reputation. Such a conclusion can be made based on information from economists and political scientists polled by Reuters. The latter are confident that the CAATSA-listed “secondary” sanctions affecting individuals concluding projects with our defense industry can inflict a very serious blow to Western European and even some American companies, which will cause great dissatisfaction with the actions of the Trump administration. As a result, both “Kremlin” and “secret” reports can noticeably “knock down” the US rating in the eyes of large French and Italian entrepreneurs in the defense industry. This is confirmed by the commentary of Maximilian Hess, a senior analyst at the political risks of the AKE Group, made for CNBC. The specialist noted that the most likely scenario is that Trump approved only 5 from 12 sanctions measures that will have a minimal impact on the Russian defense sector in the armament market. In this situation, the European Union’s refusal to introduce an additional package of sanctions against businessmen and companies on the recommendation of the United States adds sharpness, as the Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel said after a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev; After all, the consequences of the “first package” of the EU member states have already felt in full.
From all of the above, we can conclude that no critical consequences from the formation and transfer to the Congress of the so-called “Kremlin report” and the given “secret list” should not be expected. At the same time, chronologically coinciding with the presentation of the report, events have become an indicator of the inevitable approaching escalation in the Donbas, to which the West will encourage "Square" and without a unanimous opinion regarding anti-Russian sanctions. This fact continues to generate numerous myths and rumors about the directions in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine can launch offensive actions against the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, which continues to confuse the residents of Donbass and Runet observers.
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A BREAKTHROUGH ON THE MOUNTAIN AND DEBALTseV OPERATIONAL DIRECTIONS
In addition to the planned completion of the OSCE mission in the Donbas, there is still a whole mass of indicators indicating the approach of war. This announcement of the terms of delivery of ATRA FGM-148 Minister of Defense of Ukraine, scheduled for 2 February and transfer to Gorlovka and Mariupol operational direction of large armored and artillery gain APU, and finally reconnaissance flights of strategic drone radar / optoelectronic reconnaissance RQ-4A, which since the beginning of 2018, 6 has appeared in the Donbas sky once. These flights can be considered extremely indicative, since only before the active phase of the hostilities begins, the UAV must almost be patrolled daily near the contact line in order to obtain operational information about the adversary pulling up additional units and regrouping. The greatest number of rumors today is associated with pulling up the northern section of the contact line (North Front LDNR) of the full-fledged rocket artillery division 9К51 "Grad" from 18 combat vehicles, as well as demining the "gray zone" in the northern vicinity of Gorlovka, which may indicate the creation safe loopholes for offensive operations. On this, 25 January, marked “Urgent” said the Russian journalist Semyon Pegov.
Later, in the Militia Briefs community, a DNR NR Corps soldier who wished to remain anonymous tried to refute S. Pegov’s opinion, indicating that activating the Armed Forces under the Gorlovka is a diversionary exercise for dragging the maximum number of units of the DNR army into the defense of Gorlovka and the exposure of Svetlodarovoi arc while it is in the Svetlodar arc area that a “breakthrough” will occur with a further advance towards the Russian border. The author made a mistake by specifying the 120-kilometer distance from Debaltseve to the border (in reality, 70 km through Thorez), and also added that after this the junta’s assault bones would split into two tactical “sleeves”, one of which would continue to advance to the northeast ( covering Lugansk), and the second - to the south-west (covering Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration and Dokuchaevsk). The opinion is quite interesting, but hardly corresponds to reality and tactical situation.
Using Gorlovka as a site for a distracting maneuver is a matter of course, but an attack on Gorlovka, as well as on Debaltseve, is something really fantastic. All this is clearly visible on the example of the canton of Afrin. Here, one and a half weeks after the start of the criminal operation "Olive Branch" (during the bombing of the Turkish aviation killed more than 100 civilians and a similar number of Afrin defenders) the Turkish army and the FSA terrorist units were able to capture only small border sectors at an operational depth of 3 - 7 km (map below). Such a “success” was achieved by the army of militants, on whose side there is full-fledged artillery support, air support, cover by the Leopard-2A4 and M60T-Sabra tank brigades, a 5-7-fold numerical superiority, as well as support from the Koral electronic warfare systems ". The aggressor is opposed by not so many Kurdish YPG Self-Defense Forces, which have at their disposal only obsolete MANPADS "Strela" and anti-tank missile systems of far from the latest generation. In the same turn, on the YPG side there is a favorable elevated terrain with a mass of ridges and heights.
And now let's take a look at the Donbass. Ukrainian military units, unlike the pro-Turkish forces on the border with Afrin, have only 2,5 - 3,5-fold numerical superiority in personnel, a slight superiority (about 1,3 times) in the number of receiver and rocket artillery, as well as an approximately equal ratio in the number of main T-72AV / B / M1, T-64BV battle tanks and various types of anti-tank missile systems (from Fagot to Metis-M and Konkursa-M). These funds will be enough to reflect the onset of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on most LDNR operational areas. A breakthrough in the direction of Debaltseve will be the last for the Ukrainian assault units in the literal sense of the word: just 15 km is the center of the Gorlovsko-Enakiyevskiy agglomeration, where the main forces of the 1-th AK NM DPR, which are responsible for the northern direction. Coming through n. Seating and Logvinovo and Lozovo infantry and tank units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will immediately be covered with artillery fire from the vicinity of Debaltseve, Uglegorsk, Gorlovka, Enakievo, and possibly Bryanka (the range in 26-30 km allows). The Defense Ministry of the DPR will be able to distribute up to several dozens of anti-tank crews to the Svetlodarskaya arc, which will allow the Armed Forces to set up armored brigades on the approaches to Debaltseve; Losses APU can reach more than 1 thousand people.
Even in the event that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine applies the MBT T-64BM Bulat and T-84BM Oplot, equipped with the DZ Nizhny and tandem Duplet, and still can enter Debaltseve, this will get bogged down in the “routine” of urban battles, and with time the corps will “smoke out” the Ukrainian army from the city, or they will defeat it in the “Debaltsevskiy boiler-2”. In Gorlovka, the Ukrainian army expects an equally hot meeting on the part of NM anti-tankers of the DPR, and only the southern borders of the republic in the Telmanovo area can undergo a similar “throw” from the Ukrainian troops, which is still promoted by the small operational depth and the lack of a powerful urban infrastructure for "Long-playing" fortifications.