Military Review

Do not count the "Diamonds"

29



The current state of affairs in the national cosmonautics is of great concern. The reasons are more than enough. A country that has paved the way to space may be on the outskirts of scientific and technological progress. The likelihood of such a scenario, unfortunately, is real. Recent failures and long-standing problems of the industry do not allow to calmly look at the current situation.

The recent publication of American journalist Matthew Bodner, published in Space News, about the prospects for the financial condition of Roscosmos has added fuel to the fire. The author with a fair amount of gloating predicts that after the completion of contracts for launching American astronauts on the Soyuz spacecraft and the termination of procurement of rocket engines for the Atlas 5 PH to 2020, many of our enterprises will be in a critical situation.

Are the colors not condensed, are the readers and the experts misled? Let's try to figure it out.

Coachman Shoot Horses

An American journalist, it must be admitted, truthfully describes things to pay attention to. For example, space carrying, when Russian delivery vehicles are used on a commercial basis when rotating the crews of the ISS. Most likely in the coming years, as new piloted ships are created and completed in the United States, it will gradually disappear. Although today brings a decent income, for the delivery of each foreign astronaut Roskosmos falls about 80 million dollars.

Without embellishment reflects the economic situation in the Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center - the plant is in debt, as in silk. The fact is that after a well-known series of accidents, the number of orders, including commercial ones, on the Proton-M, the company's main product, has drastically decreased. This year, only four start-ups are planned, of which only one is commercial. And the minimum estimated number of starts to maintain the profitability of the enterprise is six. It affected the reduction of orders and increased competition, primarily from the company Ilona Mask. As a result of these factors, as well as large debts to banks, the new CEO is forced to ask the Russian government to provide Khrunychev financial support in the amount of 30 billion rubles. All hope of the state.

But in the best years of the Center. Khrunichev only proton-M commercial launches carried out up to eight per year, and did everything with 12. Well this is what talent you need to have to squander such a potential!

The situation with the Soyuz-2 PH is relatively good. This universal carrier is used to put into orbit both manned and cargo ships, as well as satellites of various purposes: military, scientific, remote sensing, telecommunication. He performs and commercial missions. What is interesting is that this is the only carrier in the world that has launch pads at once at four cosmodromes - Baikonur, Plesetsk, Vostochny, Kuru. And today, and in the short term, you should not worry about his fate: he enjoys a well-deserved popularity with customers and he has enough work for many years to come.

As for the Russian rocket engines for the USA, there is no particular tragedy in stopping the supply of RD-180 for the Atlas 5 PH. First, purchases of RD-181 engines for the Antares 2 PH will continue, albeit in somewhat smaller volumes. Secondly, on American customers the light did not come together. There is China, which has shown interest in rocket engines of the Energomash plant. It was not by chance that a Russian-Chinese agreement on the mutual protection of technologies was signed. This is a serious legal guarantee against the unlicensed copying of our high-tech products. And third, the mass production of the new carriers Angara and Soyuz-5 will begin, for which mass production of engines RD-190 / 191 and RD-170 / 171 will be required. I want to believe that this is the case for the coming years.

"Federated" plan

Everyone understands that if nothing is done, the forecasts of the author of the article in the Space News may come true. It is unlikely, however, the leadership of Russia will allow such a development of events. The state must do everything possible not only to preserve what has been achieved, but also to multiply the list of cosmic achievements.

First of all, it is imperative to solve the three-pronged task: to build and test a manned spacecraft of the new generation Federation, to create and launch the Soyuz-5 launch vehicle and build the launch facility for Angara-5 at the East. This is a minimum program, which is given no more than five years. If all three points are completed, the remaining problems, of a much smaller scale, will be solved in working order. And the most important thing is that this reserve will allow the Russian space program not to depend on foreign orders, which will become a financial mapping from the rescue means of enterprises. Although he, of course, will not be superfluous.

Hence the conclusion that in the next five years the financing of the Federal Space Program should go smoothly and in full. Attempts to patch up the state budget due to underfunding of the industry are fraught with chronic lagging behind competitors in the field that critically affects the security and defense capability of the country. The recipe for development is simple - you need to invest in space for large, and not to keep it on a starvation diet. Without full funding and on the old baggage, we somehow will stretch the maximum to the beginning of the 2020-x. But then what shall we do?

Chelomey lessons

It seems reasonable for the benefit of Russian cosmonautics to have two strategic space manufacturers, as in the USA (Boeing and Lockheed), because a certain internal competition should be across the entire spectrum of products. However, no additional costs will be required. With RSC Energia, everything is clear - this is a purely space company, with the Center named after Khrunichev more difficult.

It so happened that in the first post-Soviet years, each survived singly and the engineering engineering NPO that existed at the time was actually divided into two parts: the head enterprise in Reutov and the mass production of Proton launch vehicles in Moscow. The firm, even under its creator Vladimir Chelomey, was conceived as multi-profile, and its products were cruise missiles, ICBMs, RN, military satellites ... As for the space itself, this is the already mentioned Proton and the unique Almaz orbital station for military purposes (“1971– 1975. OS Country Wizards Even today, after almost forty years from a technical point of view, it looks very impressive and modern. Losing this groundwork would be inexcusable waste.

Today, the NPO Mashinostroeniya is part of the Tactical Missiles Corporation. This is understandable, for the task is to create and conduct a full range of tests of the Zircon hypersonic missile and other products of a similar class. But in the medium term (after 2025 of the year), it makes sense to return the NPO engineering, having reunited with the Khrunychev workers, to the womb of Roscosmos. The exploration of the moon will be on the agenda, which will require a concentration of efforts.

Recall history. In part, we lost to the Americans the moon race for the simple reason that there was no single governing center of the program. Korolev worked on his own, Chelomey too. Let's learn from the mistakes of the past.

The only question for Khrunichev residents is relations with South Korea. Why did the collaboration break? In the 2009 – 2013, three launches of the KSLV-1 booster rocket, essentially a modification of the light Angara-1, were carried out from the Korean spaceport. After all, with the ground infrastructure and the ready carrier it is possible to carry out commercial launches in the interests of customers from the countries of South-East Asia.

Bukharin's Testament

In short, not everything is so bad, any problem can be solved, if there is will and intelligence. If the Russian government wants to preserve the national space program not in words, but will do it in practice, then the most gloomy forecasts will not come true. I want to believe that the words of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin "The Russian state created and will develop the rocket and space industry" will be filled with concrete content.

As for the publication in Space News about the allegedly saving American orders for us, we can firmly say: the author is only partially correct. I remember an instructive phrase that was once said by a well-known politician Nikolai Bukharin: “Foreign capital will begin to flow to us on a significant scale only when we are stronger”. Translated into the language of the problem touched upon by us, it will be like this: we will not help ourselves - no one will help.
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https://vpk-news.ru/articles/41011
29 comments
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  1. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov 31 January 2018 16: 05 New
    18
    And again, power has nothing to do with it! Neither Putin nor Rogozin, no one is to blame! And so everywhere, in all areas! Unfortunately, our efficient managers can only efficiently cut loot. In any other country, organization conclusions would have long been made with all the ensuing consequences, but not with us. Not 37 after all ...
    1. RASKAT
      RASKAT 1 February 2018 03: 19 New
      +3
      The article is not about anything, the same GKNPTS named after Khrunichev and Proton were criticized and slandered. But it’s nothing that they are building the Khrunichev GKNPC Angara, a rocket which is being built specifically for commercial flights. They built a cosmodic one, the assembly workshop in Omsk, and not everything is so simple with Proton, the new RD-0146 engine was also developed for it, which will significantly increase the mass of the cargo being removed.
      And all the talk about reducing the number of Proton launches can be countered by the miniaturization of satellites, the development of the American Falcon 9, the end of the Glonas program. Where such heavy missiles are no longer needed, or competitors are replacing them.
      In general, not everything is so sad as outlined in the article.
      1. SpaceCom
        SpaceCom 1 February 2018 11: 56 New
        0
        In general, not everything is so sad as outlined in the article.

        The article is just written as critical of the publication of the American journalist Matthew Bodner, published in Space News, about the prospects for the financial condition of Roscosmos.
        ... A hangar is being built, a rocket which is being built specifically for commercial flights

        It is strange to build a rocket for commerce, the cost of which is one and a half times higher than the cost of a Proton, similar in characteristics to it. And this despite the fact that there are not enough orders for Proton.
        And the main drawback of the article is that it completely lacks the economic rationale for the slogans put forward:
        First of all, it is imperative to solve the threefold task without fail: to build and test the new-generation manned spacecraft “Federation”, to create and put into serial production of the Soyuz-5 LV and build the launch complex for the “Angara-5” on Vostochny.

        What is the point in creating the Federation, when and at the “Soyuz” there will soon be no one to carry? And nowhere ...
        1. RASKAT
          RASKAT 1 February 2018 14: 00 New
          0
          What is the point in creating the Federation, when and at the “Soyuz” there will soon be no one to carry? And nowhere ...
          First of all, we are building it for the Moon, and then for the ISS. And so why would she even need.
          1. SpaceCom
            SpaceCom 1 February 2018 16: 45 New
            0
            Thank you for the lecture, however, such science-fiction justifications pouring water into the mill of the developer of the "Federation" RSC Energia, I could bring about a dozen.
            I’m talking about the economic feasibility of this approach. Instead of reducing the cost of the cost of orbiting by creating a new reusable manned spacecraft under the well-established and most inexpensive of the existing middle-class missiles - Soyuz-2, they are trying to create an excessively large spacecraft for a non-existent launch vehicle.
  2. The comment was deleted.
    1. krops777
      krops777 1 February 2018 03: 36 New
      +2
      Schaz about Stalin will start yelling as he "lifted the cosmos."


      And what not? give arguments.
  3. god-given
    god-given 31 January 2018 18: 31 New
    +1
    hangar dear no one needs rubbish
  4. sanja.grw
    sanja.grw 31 January 2018 19: 17 New
    +1
    He served in Stroybat, 93-95, it used to go to ZiH (Khrunichev factory), if I am not mistaken he was at Fili, there was such a devastation. Of course there were guards with perimeter security, but when they said that at this factory station Mir did, it was a little trusted
    1. Cannonball
      Cannonball 3 February 2018 16: 08 New
      0
      There were no guards along the perimeter. There are workshops with VOHR at the entrance with a passage through special passes. There was no particular devastation in 93-95. There was a problem with financing. Yes, they did the Mir there, and the Salutes, and the ISS big modules.
  5. valek97
    valek97 31 January 2018 20: 54 New
    +3
    Well, remember how many factories are closing down and being privatized under the guise of a new wave of privatization. The same Kaluga radio tube plant. It seems that it belongs to the state, but only a controlling stake is sent by effective managers and with variable success it rises and falls. Now while there are orders from the defense industry, it works and it seems that the money has appeared a little, but now after 20 orders there will be no more, hello poverty What will the plant do in peacetime? Yes, he produces medical equipment, but this is not his main profile.
  6. ccsr
    ccsr 31 January 2018 21: 07 New
    0
    The author reports:
    For the delivery of each foreign astronaut, Roscosmos receives about $ 80 million.

    But there are other ways to get currency, so the launch of several foreigners on the ISS does not give such a profit as the sale of modern weapons:
    More than two billion dollars amounted to the cost of the transaction on the S-400 with Turkey.

    With China even more. So I see no reason to panic over the Americans’ refusal to fly on our ships.
  7. Dedall
    Dedall 31 January 2018 22: 05 New
    +4
    And I already wrote that our current leadership is not at all interested in the development of the aerospace growth. Remember the same long-suffering "World". For only 600 million it could be saved for another ten years. They would have rolled their “friends” on him for money, plus getting new materials in zero gravity, testing systems ... Yes, there’s a lot more to do with it for expanding the industry. And we just drowned everything together with the most valuable devices.
    1. Cannonball
      Cannonball 3 February 2018 16: 10 New
      0
      It is impossible. Too risky for manned operation.
  8. sergo1914
    sergo1914 1 February 2018 05: 51 New
    0
    And 80 Lyamov for a neglected foreign astronaut or a flown foreign astronaut? No, I'm not hinting at anything. Just a business plan looming ...
  9. ccsr
    ccsr 1 February 2018 12: 54 New
    +2
    Quote: Dedall
    For only 600 million it could be saved for another ten years. They would have rolled their “friends” on him for money, plus getting new materials in zero gravity, testing systems ...

    Actually, there is such a thing as a resource for any equipment, and it was developed by MIR, and more than once. I think you hardly understand that replacing the removable equipment of the station itself was not limited to the fact that it would require a complete disassembly of the individual elements of the station, which is too expensive in space. By the way, the shuttle shutdown just happened due to the fact that even on the ground it is difficult to cheapen the repair and maintenance of unique space technology. So crying for the WORLD is the lot of the journalistic public, and those who themselves were involved in complex technical systems look at this situation from a completely different perspective.
  10. Genry
    Genry 2 February 2018 12: 17 New
    0
    Quote from the author:
    “It seems reasonable for the benefit of the Russian cosmonautics to have two strategic space manufacturers, as in the USA (Boeing and Lockheed), because there must be some internal competition over the entire spectrum of manufactured products.”
    Competition, and very fierce, already exists on the part of foreign campaigns. Therefore, the emergence of an internal monopoly will increase the competitive strength of the domestic industry and will reduce duplicate developments and the consumption of financial resources.
  11. Old26
    Old26 2 February 2018 21: 49 New
    +1
    To be honest, having read the article twice, I did not understand what the author wanted to say.

    Quote: RASKAT
    The article is not about anything, the same GKNPTS named after Khrunichev and Proton were criticized and slandered. But nothing that the Khrunichev GKNPC Angara is building, a rocket which is being built specifically for commercial flights ..

    I won’t say whether they lied or not with Proton - I just don’t know. I just think that Angara is a failed project. I will not touch on the one who pushed this project, it’s about the fact that the project itself was reduced to impossibility, leaving only two products from the whole family, which in their performance characteristics (heavy) did not differ much from the same “Proton”. Yes, it can lift 3 tons more by NOU, but it raised less by geo-transitional than Proton

    Quote: RASKAT
    Cosmodized for her built.

    There really is a platform at the North Cosmodrome. How many launches from it were? Two!!! One start is an easy option, and the second is A5 (heavy). But that was FOUR YEARS AGO. Next when will it be? With a guarantee - in 2021. Don't you think that the interval of 7 years is a bit big?
    “Vostochny” - the horse didn’t roll on this cosmodrome at the site for the “Angara”. And one start at the spaceport for the rocket - sorry, this is bullshit. Any accident at the start and all. It will not let out from where.

    Quote: RASKAT
    assembly shop in Omsk ,.

    Perhaps there is a workshop. Where is the output of the workshop? I remember how 10 years ago they published launch schedules. An increase in launches of the Angara and a decrease in launches of Proton (EMNIP by 2023). But in the coming years, as far as I understand, it’s not necessary to wait for launches of the Angara

    Quote: RASKAT
    and with Proton, it’s not so simple, the new RD-0146 engine has also been developed for it, which will significantly increase the mass of the load. .

    Do you mean options called "medium" and "light" and with an engine not paired with "Heptyl-Amyl"?

    Quote: RASKAT
    And all the talk about reducing the number of Proton launches can be countered by the miniaturization of satellites, the development of America Falcon 9, the end of the Glonas program. Where such heavy missiles are no longer needed, or competitors are replacing them ..

    All such talk is "in favor of the poor." Roughly speaking, excuse. Satellite miniaturization is taking place all over the world, but nevertheless, France, the United States, and China are making and planning much heavier missiles than they are now.
    1. shahor
      shahor 4 February 2018 17: 17 New
      +1
      Empty article. The state does not have money for Roscosmos, and it should not have it - like the USA has for many programs similar to ours. The solution - in a nutshell, the author is a Boeing-lockheed (I would add Mask and others). The United States does not spend a dime on the development of engines and launch vehicles, manned ships, etc. Do it
      Boeing Masks. The state only buys (if necessary, their products, choosing the most suitable product - Dragon for the ISS, Orion - for the Moon. Plans, requirements are known, competitors are also. Work! But it works in a market economy. We still have a scoop. " The Central Committee and the Council of Ministers are supposed to provide ... increase by 1980 .. "nothing has been done. So now, by 20 ... - the base on the moon (on x .. ra?)
      1. Awaz
        Awaz 4 February 2018 17: 50 New
        0
        you are very wrong. Boeings Lockheed masks, masks especially, are well tied to the American budget, and in addition they got all the achievements of the American space program of past years completely free. They do not need to invest in development and many years of experience. Stupidly take what is and "disperse", then everyone shares the loot. However, I agree that they do everything reasonably. But for all this, it paid and still pays the people or for example the same RF, investing their money in their debts ..
        1. shahor
          shahor 4 February 2018 18: 12 New
          0
          Stupidly take-this is where? Musk is planting the first step; did he borrow this work from Roskosmos? And Falcon, to Khrunichev? What about the dragon and orion? To study the experience of others, successful and not very, not shameful.
          About the budget. By investing their money, they sell their goods to the state of NASA or MO. With us, Roscosmos receives state support and then also sells goods and services to it.
  12. ccsr
    ccsr 4 February 2018 21: 35 New
    0
    Quote: shahor
    Stupidly take-this is where?

    Well, at least from this:
    In 1990, academician Sagdeev made a sharp, but quite typical for that time turn - he married an American

    You probably have not heard who it is and what he took with him to the United States.
    1. shahor
      shahor 5 February 2018 18: 29 New
      0
      I know who it is. What took away - no. Tell me.
  13. ccsr
    ccsr 5 February 2018 19: 43 New
    0
    Quote: shahor
    I know who it is. What took away - no. Tell me.

    For fifteen years he led the Space Research Institute of the USSR Academy of Sciences, and was aware of all our projects and achievements in the space field. Do you think that he was silent like Stirlitz? Do not tell me, the granddaughter of the former US president was specially brought to him to lure him from the USSR, and he was seduced. This is the usual trick of the special services, repeated more than once by the Americans in the post-Soviet space. By the way, he personally did a lot to bury the unprofitable shuttle program, for which the Americans are grateful to him.
    1. shahor
      shahor 9 February 2018 19: 32 New
      0
      And before the Institute, he worked on the problem of thermonuclear fusion - and so what? IKI had nothing to do with the creation of the IKK LV. IKI was engaged in the study of planets, stars, cosmic radiation and related physical processes. IKI developed equipment for solving these problems. To solve the problems associated with the placement of this equipment on the IS and the planning of launches, contacts were made with design bureaus and factories. IKI did not solve any problems directly related to the design and production of the launch vehicle. Here the academician could not surprise Americans. I could not surprise them with the developments in protecting the crew from KI - they have landed on the moon 6 times already.
      And - Sagdeev did not work for Mask and did not advise him
      when creating the Falcon Heavy.
      According to Shuttle, do you not think that it was our special services that successfully brought him to an American and successfully ditched a promising project?
  14. ccsr
    ccsr 9 February 2018 20: 49 New
    0
    Quote: shahor
    And before the Institute, he worked on the problem of thermonuclear fusion - and so what?

    And the fact that he was "restricted to travel abroad" and was released from the country inadvertently, after which a commission was appointed to evaluate the state secrets that were available to him in order to understand what damage he could cause to the state.
    According to Shuttle, do you not think that it was our special services that successfully brought him to an American and successfully ditched a promising project?

    No, I don’t think, because this is a futile project at the present stage of space development, which was ruinous for NASA and it was in our interests that it last as long as possible. But our academician played against our interests, which speaks of his true essence.
    1. shahor
      shahor 10 February 2018 19: 54 New
      0
      Do not be like the NKVD investigator in a bad sense. You did not know this person, but undertake to judge his * true essence * and give frivolous assessments. Before leaving for permanent residence, Sagdeev, like many other Soviet academicians working on topical topics, repeatedly traveled abroad with lectures — do you think without coordination with the KGB? He has participated in numerous seminars and conferences. Sagdeev, a Landau student, a theoretical physicist, did not deal with applied issues related to the defense industry. And he * played * for himself, and not against you - in his declining years he met a single person, he wanted just human happiness.
      By the way, until the mid-2000s he very often visited Russia.
  15. ccsr
    ccsr 10 February 2018 20: 56 New
    0
    Quote: shahor
    Do not be like the NKVD investigator in a bad sense. You did not know this person, but undertake to judge his * true essence * and give frivolous assessments.

    I really did not know this person, but I know very well how much harm such people do to the state when they hand over our secrets to our opponents. Unlike you, I know this firsthand - I had to deal with similar situations. As for his “human happiness,” why couldn’t he and his new wife stay in our country? Well, some pages from his biography:
    In 1968, several dozen Soviet citizens signed letters addressed to the authorities of the USSR, in which the authors protested against violations of civil liberties in connection with trials against dissidents. Authorities staged persecution of signatories, including those who worked at the Academgorodok in Novosibirsk. 36-year-old Sagdeev proposed "to expel everyone from Akademgorodok, let them go load the lead ingots"
    1. shahor
      shahor 11 February 2018 20: 37 New
      0
      I read about the collective letter of * workers * - a widespread practice in the USSR. But again, you somehow easily give estimates. Many of the signatories believed that in this way they would save people from prison, others- * were asked *. Today it’s easy for us to judge, what would you do then? And don’t have to beat yourself in the chest and say * I would never !!! !!! * What guided Sagdeev-I do not know. I admit that I was scared. But note, I do not give assessments of his human qualities, but I appreciate the contribution he made to Soviet science. He is one of the real scientists - Academicians, and not modern Russian * academicians *. The FSB has no complaints against him, and there are no court decisions in absentia either. Man is not guilty of anything, point.
  16. ccsr
    ccsr 11 February 2018 20: 51 New
    0
    Quote: shahor
    The FSB has no complaints against him, and there are no court decisions in absentia either. Man is not guilty of anything, point.

    When he gave the dera, the FSB did not exist, and the KGB after 1991 underwent such a purge that there was no time for this academician, that’s all they let down on the brakes. Well, if after the collapse of the USSR, our government worked according to the instructions of the Americans, then this academician was no longer remembered.
    But there is a history of our state, and no matter how vague it may be, the betrayal of the interests of our country will always be condemned by descendants. So your "praise" to the runaway academician is only evidence that you do not know the lessons of history well. By the way, does it not surprise you that in the USA he did not conduct serious independent work, and was only involved as a consultant?