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Sergei Shoigu, during his working trip to Southeast Asia, visited Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, held talks with their military-political leadership. What is Russia's strategic interest in these countries? Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, helped the Military-Industrial Courier sort out the issue.
- What do you think, Leonid Grigorievich, why did the Minister of Defense go to these countries at this particular time?
- There are several reasons for this. First and foremost, the complication of relations with the West, primarily with the United States. And we are making a turn towards partners traditional for the Soviet Union and somewhere for Russia, who are more reliable than Western "friends". Secondly, the countries of Southeast Asia, like the Arab world, as a result of our actions in Syria saw some kind of protection for themselves - Russia did not betray, did not abandon its old friend and ally, Syria, despite unprecedented external pressure. Who else can they count on? All Southeast Asian countries are under strong pressure from both the United States and China. The turn in our direction gives hope for a certain independence. For the same Vietnam, relations with Beijing are getting complicated because of the Spratly Islands, although it did not like China's expansionism in the region before. During the visit, Sergei Kuzhugetovich just told his interlocutors that Russia is the country that is able to ensure their safety. Thirdly, the time has come to strengthen our positions, to return to the ocean, to multipolar politics, not to be limited by the former orientation exclusively towards the West or towards China. In this process, seemingly small countries serve as important anchor points.
What does the agreement with Myanmar on a simplified version of the entry of Russian ships into its ports mean? To find our Navy in the Indian Ocean, we need to have either a powerful naval base, like the one that we had in Vietnam, in Cam Ranh, or at least at the first stage to give our ships serving in the region the opportunity to enter for a short time to friendly harbors for refueling, for personnel rest. The more such points, the better.
- But Cam Ranh is waiting for us, what do you think?
- We will definitely return to Cam Ranh. At one time, they did a lot of stupid things, especially when the Sergeev-Kvashnin tandem commanded the defense department. They left Lourdes, and nine months after Vladimir Putin's highly successful visit to Cuba. Left Cam Ranh. These mistakes are on the conscience of the military. Although it was during Putin's first presidential term that we turned from West to East. Before the Vietnamese visit of Vladimir Vladimirovich, the General Staff was just proposing the creation of a network of reference points for fleet, in the selection of which the main criterion should have been reliability. At the same time, our president made an unexpected visit to Pyongyang, and now it is clear how competent that decision was. Russia managed to launch the process of Korean reconciliation. And today we see that it is being renewed. The DPRK has come up with an initiative of active rapprochement with South Korea.- How did it happen that the General Staff insists on expanding the naval base network, and the Ministry of Defense liquidates the existing bases?
- We were offered extremely favorable conditions both in Cuba and Vietnam. In the late 90s, I took part in the negotiations on the resumption of our presence in Vietnam and saw with what hope both the Vietnamese and Lao were looking at us. When Igor Sergeyev was Minister of Defense, we almost agreed to return to Cam Ranh, Laos and Lourdes. But when the Ministry of Defense was headed by Sergei Ivanov, who saw no point in foreign bases, we almost parted, even with the minimal presence that we had in Syrian Tartus. This policy came from Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev, who now lives in Miami: it’s better for us to be friends with the States than with all these small countries. Just because I did not share this point of view, I was dismissed from the post of the head of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation with the wording: by my position I interfere with the development of close cooperation with the United States.
- What countries would you advise Sergei Kuzhugetovich for his next working trip?
- It's time to fly to Latin America. He was already there, now is the time to gain a foothold. I understand that it is hardly possible to restore Lourdes, but the Cubans are ready for this kind of negotiations. We need to actively work with Venezuela and Nicaragua. Our relations with other countries of South and Central America depend on how we interact with them, whether we can significantly increase their security and stability, whether we are able to protect our presence from American impudence. Let us show ourselves - and the same line will be lined up for meetings and signing agreements with the Russian leadership, which we see in the Arab Middle East. And in any case, we must not forget about India.
- What benefits, apart from expanding its presence in the world, does Russia receive from such visits?
- Under sanctions, with a tough impact on our defense complex, we must expand our capabilities to sell weapons and military equipment in order to support the defense industry complex. Vietnam and Laos have a huge amount of our, still Soviet military equipment - outdated, but it is present there as a system, which is very important. In Myanmar, for example, twenty of our MiG-29s, now the next stage is the delivery of the Su-30, combat training Yak-130. Contracts for service, for ammunition, for radio navigation support will surely follow. Let the contracts be modest - 400 million in Myanmar, but if such orders go all over the world, our defense industry will receive both funds and development opportunities even under the pressure of sanctions.- Speech at the talks, as I understand it, is about the sale of new types of weapons. Here we are strong, which cannot be said about the service of the sold equipment. Does Russia have any prospects in this direction?
- During the time of Rosvooruzheniye, we faced big military and political problems. The same Vietnam, Laos asked for ammunition, the production of which had already been discontinued in our country, they wanted to open an automobile plant in their own country in order to produce the UAZ-469, and especially the GAZ-66, so beloved. Similar problems - maintenance of the existing Soviet equipment - arose in the CIS countries. There were a huge number of requests from Syria, from Egypt - carry out modernization, organize the supply of components, but all this was perceived against the background of trade weapons as an insignificant trifle. But the field of activity is both vast and profitable. The need is obvious, there is a demand, but there is no organizational structure that would specifically deal with this. Oboronexport, which was under Rosvooruzheniye, somehow could solve these issues, you yourself wrote about this quite recently (“Repair against“ Patriotism ”- Ed.). This has become a big problem today. In those countries where we currently do not have supplies of new weapons, we could start with the modernization of the Soviet equipment they have, and then the turn would come to the sale of Russian equipment. This will give both income and, most importantly, respect.
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