Oh sport, you are war!
There is a grim joke about how a certain person works in the next world with a fan - that is, he constantly turns over in his coffin because of the blatant disregard for what he was doing in this world. Apparently, this is most relevant to the founder of the modern Olympic movement, Baron Pierre de Coubertin.From those high, bright and pure Olympic ideals, which Kuberten defended more than a century ago, nothing has been left in the world for a long time. Big sport is turned, firstly, into a giant business, and secondly, not just into a powerful political factor, but, in fact, into a legal substitute for war. During the years of confrontation between ideological systems, the political component of big sport was particularly noticeable, since the beginning of 90's, business has come to the fore. But then politics came back.
BE SUCCESSFUL IN ALL
In Russia, as in the USSR before, success in sports is traditionally perceived as one of the most important proofs of the success and viability of the country as a whole. Accordingly, the government and propaganda have traditionally spun up domestic sporting achievements to the maximum. If possible, this was done even in the most difficult for the country 90-s. In the 21st century, when oil prices went up, the Soviet approach to high-profile sports returned almost completely. In addition, Moscow began to fight (and successfully) for holding the maximum number of significant sporting events in Russia - the world championships in the most popular sports, as well as the Olympic Games.
Apparently, the Kremlin decided that this would help us radically improve our image and “enter the civilized world” on our own terms. However, something turned out to be the opposite: having spent all this huge money, Russia made itself a hostage of big-time sports.
The worst economic crisis in Greece, which has not yet ended, happened primarily because of the Olympic Games 2004 held in this country. Huge investments in the Games did not pay off even by half, most of the Olympic facilities in Athens are now abandoned. We, apparently, will not reach such an economic catastrophe because of sports projects, but on the whole the economic effect of holding numerous sports competitions in Russia will be about the same as in Greece. This will certainly apply to the future World Cup (World Cup) in football. Why do we need world-class stadiums in Kaliningrad, Nizhny Novgorod, Saransk, Volgograd, Sochi, where there are no RFPL clubs and they are not expected? Why, at the same time, the World Cup will not take place in Krasnodar, where there is a wonderful stadium, built at the expense of businessman Sergei Galitsky, and not on budget money? How many fans will come 15 June in St. Petersburg for the match Morocco-Iran? And June 28 in Saransk for the Tunis-Panama match? All these questions are purely rhetorical. On the payback of the World Cup is out of the question. But problems with sports, as we see, appear not only in the economy.
The aforementioned transformation of big sport into a business and into a political factor naturally gave rise to the desire of athletes, coaches and officials (not only sport itself) in all major sports powers to achieve results at any cost. And despite the fact that in many sports record achievements are already at the limit of the physical abilities of a person. From here arose his majesty Doping, which finally crosses out the very Olympic ideals of the name of Coubertin. But the fight against doping, especially aggravated in the past two decades, crosses them out no less. If the medals of the Olympic Games or World Championships can be withdrawn after many years retroactively, this makes the competition essentially meaningless. After some time, the understanding of this fact will be finalized, destroying the big sport in its current form. In the meantime, the fight against doping is also used for political purposes.
About what the relations between Russia and the West came to during the post-Soviet period and why it happened, it was described in the article “Russia and the West remain antagonists” (“NVO”, 15.12.17). Crimea and Ukraine in fact became only a pretext, in any case, it was heading towards a complete rupture. After which the West began to apply to Russia the methods tested in the fight against the late USSR (economic and informational). Not realizing that today's Russia, although formally weaker than the USSR, is in fact much more stable than it (“Ghost of the USSR wanders around Russia”, “NVO” from 03.11.17). Noticing that Russia is not going to capitulate or collapse, the West has engaged a very sensitive sport for Moscow. It was decided to strike at the Russian sports achievements so that the Russian people would be upset and overthrow, finally, the anti-people regime. Here, again, there is a complete lack of understanding of the Russian mentality (the overwhelming majority of Russians who are interested in this issue will only hate the West even more). But it's not just that.
MEANS DESTROYES PURPOSE
When the US and its allies invaded Iraq in 2003, one of their goals, of course, was to establish freedom and democracy in that country. The Americans did not understand that freedom cannot be established by force - the tool is so at odds with the goal that it destroys the goal. What we see in Iraq today.
The same can be said about the actions of WADA and the IOC in the "fight against Russian doping." It is perfectly clear that many Russian athletes really took doping (actually not only Russian, but talking about Western double standards is even exhausting) with the knowledge of their coaches, and possibly some officials. They must be punished. But to punish those athletes whose guilt is not proven, as well as the country as a whole - this is a triumph not of legality, but, quite the contrary, complete lawlessness. 30 years ago, at the height of perestroika and glasnost, we were long and stubbornly taught that collective responsibility is possible only under a totalitarian regime, and in a legal democratic state only those specific individuals whose guilt is unconditionally proven are punished. It turns out that we were also deceived in this. And just as freedom cannot be imposed by force, lawlessness cannot be defeated by lawlessness and injustice. The tool in this case also destroys the target.
If someone doubted that the IOC decision on Russia was purely political, and there was nothing to do with doping, Michael McFaul, former Assistant to President Obama on the National Security Council and former US ambassador to Russia, dispelled these doubts. 7 December 2017, two days after the IOC’s decision, he wrote in the Washington Post that after this decision, Russians are obliged to start putting pressure on Putin and the government to make the right decisions. Such ingenuous arrogance even a little admire. And allows you to completely get rid of illusions and doubts. As well as the fact that a number of federations in certain winter sports allowed to their competitions those Russian athletes who were removed from the Olympic Games for life by the IOC because they did not find any evidence of their guilt.
How correct is the Kremlin’s decision to accept the IOC’s conditions regarding our participation in the 2018 Olympic Games in “neutral status” is an extremely complex and ambiguous issue. Of course, sorry for those athletes who did not take any doping and suffered from Western bestiality. But any manifestation of weakness, unfortunately, provokes the opponent only to increase pressure. There is not the slightest doubt that the next goal of this pressure will be FM-18. As it was said above, it will cost us extremely dearly in the most direct, economic sense. But clearly not only in it.
Already, we here started to “sew” dope. It looks like a completely indecent farce and a complete self-disclosure of the organizers of the “struggle”. First, in competitive sports, unlike competitive doping, there is almost no point. Secondly, the achievements of our football team over the past 10 years are so “outstanding” that speaking about doping with it is somehow completely “beyond good and evil.” But since the question is political and the truth does not interest anyone, the option of depriving the Russian team at the home championship (!) Of the flag and anthem and / or disqualifying some of the strongest players is completely possible (especially since we ourselves are provoking FIFA to this version by the current Olympic capitulation ” ). Maybe in connection with the World Cup and there is a variant of the real war - in the Donbass.
SALVATION - IN WAR
The current Ukrainian regime causes more and more open irritation in the West. It is completely impossible not to see that the only “European values” that the representatives of this regime, including the president himself, are truly committed to, are the various financial instruments of the EU. Obviously, the Poroshenko regime is openly criminal, and everyone who politically and economically supports it (primarily the West) automatically becomes its accomplices. Ukraine could not become either an effective tool against Russia, nor an inspiring example for Russian citizens, while successfully and without any return absorbs Western aid with billions of dollars and euros. Poroshenko and his associates are threatened with a real threat that they will no longer be loved in the West and will want to be replaced by someone, and also severely punished.
In this situation, the salvation for Poroshenko could be war. The ideal option would be to time this war with the World Cup 18. It is about the resumption of active hostilities in the Donbass. Their goal will be the complete elimination of the DPR and the LPR in the style of the Croatian Operation Storm in 1995 with the liquidation of the Serbian Krajina.
Despite the many problems and shortcomings, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are quite capable of simply crushing the Donbas militia with masses, as it almost happened in the summer of 2014. In the event of the elimination of the DPR and LPR, Poroshenko will acquire full indulgence for all past and future acts both inside the country and in the West, at least until the end of his first presidential term (in the spring of 2019). Russia will receive a crushing blow on its reputation as a brutal winner, won in the last 10 years (although in purely practical terms, the damage for Russia would, frankly, not be too great, Syria is more important for us than Donbass).
If Russia begins to provide assistance to the Donbass even in the “voentorg” mode, it will be completely impossible to hide in the conditions of a mass arrival in the country of foreign athletes, officials, journalists, fans. Moreover, as many as five matches of the World Cup 18 will be held right next to the front line - in Rostov-on-Don. June 17 will play here with Brazil, June 20 - Saudi Arabia and Uruguay (our rivals in the group), June 23 - Mexico with the Republic of Korea, June 26 - Croatia with Iceland, 2 July in Rostov-on-Don 1 / 8 match will take place finals in which England or Belgium will play against Colombia or Poland. In addition, six matches each will be held in Nizhny Novgorod and Samara, four - in Volgograd, where large groups of the Russian Armed Forces are deployed.
If foreigners see that Russia, at least in some form, is drawn into the Donbass conflict, at best we are threatened with a massive departure of fans, first of all - the most wealthy, European, which will finally make the World Cup completely disastrous in economic terms. In the worst case, the tournament may leave some teams (also European, that is, the strongest), which de facto would mean a failure of the World Cup. What then will be a blow to the country's reputation is to explain unnecessarily (it will actually be much stronger than in the case of the defeat of the DPR and the LPR). And if Russia gets involved, even on a very limited scale (“Ilovaisko-Debaltsevskiy”), directly into the war, we are guaranteed exactly the worst option.
At the same time, of course, we must understand that for the current Russian leadership (which will obviously remain so in the summer of 2018), the World Cup is an extremely important project in all aspects, including personal. Accordingly, such a rude attempt on his life will be perceived as extremely painful, which could have very bad consequences for the direct organizers of the assassination. Donbass militia may receive an order to “bite the bullet and endure”, help will be guaranteed. The quarter finals of July 7 will end, after which only four teams will remain at the World Cup, which will only play four matches, all in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and all foreign fans, journalists and officials remaining in the country will move there. In this situation, it will be possible to begin large-scale preparations for the answer and to include “Voentorg” without hindrance. And in the evening of July 15, when the captain of the winning team (again, probably Germany) lift the World Cup overhead, Moscow’s hands will be completely untied. And the matter may not be limited to the official recognition by Russia of the independence of the DPR and LPR (and with the borders not along the current front line, but within the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions), but also relate to the fate of the leaders of the Kiev regime. Moreover, if the Kremlin decides to fight directly, without hiding, then strikes can be delivered across the entire Russian-Ukrainian border, which at that moment will be “wide open” (all combat-ready parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be involved in Donbass). The “magic” “Javelins” will certainly not help Kiev, Russia will not even notice them.
HOPE ONLY ON A MIRACLE
The current leaders of Ukraine don't give a damn about their country and its people, but they value their own life, and very well provided for, very much. The prospect of losing absolutely everything is unlikely to inspire them, which will be a strong deterrent to the implementation of the above scenario.
There is, however, in Ukraine a person who is much less cautious, besides having experience of unleashing a very similar war scenario, and also timed to coincide with a major sporting event. This is Mikhail Saakashvili. Once at the head of Ukraine, he will be capable of any adventure. But for less than six months remaining before the World Cup, it is still extremely problematic to make him legitimate (at least externally) by the president of the country. And the behavior of Saakashvili himself is too controversial, which indicates a lack of resources for overthrowing Poroshenko and / or serious problems with the psyche (perhaps because of some specific bias).
However, if Hillary Clinton were now the president of the United States, the implementation of the military scenario (under whose leadership — no longer so important) would have been almost guaranteed. But Donald Trump is in the White House. It is already clear that he is a completely random person in this building, he is not capable of leading the country and opposing the American establishment. But for now he is still the president, which gives him enormous powers. Therefore, although he is dragged behind the establishment, he is seriously hampered in a number of issues. In particular, this also applies to the issue of “containing Russia”. There are big doubts that Trump will enthusiastically endorse the military version of disrupting the World Cup. Europe does not need war in any way.
Thus, the power scenario in the Donbass during the World Cup is by no means excluded, but it is by no means guaranteed. Perhaps the West will limit itself to the development of a doping farce, already tried and tested.
Absolutely, you can only say one thing: no celebration from the World Cup we will fail, we will spoil it as much as possible. It is quite logical - for what they fought, they ran into it.
Theoretically, one cannot rule out wars in the Donbass, not confined to the World Cup, but to the presidential elections in Russia, but this is inconvenient due to climatic conditions (it will be difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack in February-March) and in fact is meaningless for political reasons. A blow to the elections will be applied in Syria. There are very strong suspicions that at least not only Islamic militants organized the New Year attack on Hamimim, as a maximum - they have nothing to do with it, but the attack was carried out by people who have nothing to do with either Islam or Syria. Moscow itself has been substituted for this option with its own, to put it mildly, premature electoral PR about “complete victory” and “withdrawal of most of the troops”. Therefore, here the “distribution of roles” is obvious: Syria for elections, Donbass for the World Cup.
The only consolation is that, as was said, 15 July 2018, we will cease to be hostages of the World Cup and big sport in general, both politically and economically. The Winter Universiade-2019 in Krasnoyarsk cannot be compared in any way with the Olympic Games and World Championships held in Russia in its scale and significance. New major international competitions in our territory and, accordingly, a meaningless burden on the country's budget in the foreseeable future is not expected. And you can at least try to do something more useful and meaningful.
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