Military Review

How has the world balance changed in seven years?

21
When I wrote 2011 layouts for a year, the situation was largely undefined. And if the struggle for hegemony between the United States and China was predictable, then whose side would Russia choose is not yet clear.


How has the world balance changed in seven years?


Yesterday, one person sent me a link to my own article from 2011 of the year, describing the main geopolitical contours and layouts, on the basis of which it is worthwhile to build your understanding of what is happening in global politics.

A good analyst is not ashamed to take up the archives of his publications and demonstrate his old achievements - because they are realistic. This is not Zhukovsky and Demur, who are forced to hysterically ban all those who ask them when to wait for the dollar for two hundred rubles.

The man accompanied the link with the words “It was from this article that I began to read you,” and asked if there would be a sequel.

Will now be.

In seven years, of course, a lot has happened. "Arab Spring", the overthrow and murder of Gaddafi, the coup in Ukraine and the civil war with those who did not agree to be slaves of the West for visa-free and cookies, the beginning and the turning point in the war in Syria and much more.

When I wrote 2011 layouts for a year, the situation was largely undefined. And if the struggle for hegemony between the United States and China was predictable, then whose side would Russia choose is not yet clear.

And I was very worried that the Americans would be tricky enough to bribe the Russian elites and slay Russia with China (they are still trying to make it ridiculous stuff about the Chinese seize the Far East). This would be the worst possible scenario. Apparently, the Kremlin also thought so.

In addition, the Americans, instead of bribing and co-opting the Russian elites into their system, tried to bend the Russians out of habit (as the living classic said, cowboys). And it doesn't work with Russians.

And the Russians went to rapprochement with China (and I exhaled with relief, because the rule “the Englishwoman harms” never deceives). Well, the Anglo-Saxons have neither friends nor allies (the “Unthinkable” plan clearly confirms this).

In response, the United States staged a coup in Ukraine. They already planned it, but a year later (there is a huge amount of evidence), and here they had to accelerate. The result was a false start, the Crimea went to Russia, and the LDNR was tied up by all the forces of the American Reich Commissariat "Ukraine".

Washington’s attempt to make peace with Iran has failed. The short period of "warming relations" was quickly replaced by the resumption of hostile rhetoric.

Suppressing the rebellion against US hegemony in Venezuela with the help of another Maidan failed (including thanks to Russian and Chinese aid).

In Syria, American plans to create a Caliphate (long voiced by a number of Western analysts) and leaks from the CIA and other intelligence agencies also failed. And now the destroyed “Islamic state” cannot be used either against Iran or against Russia.

Judging by recent events, the Kurdish card Americans also fail to fully play (that is, a certain amount of instability will still be sown, but no "Great Kurdistan" from the Pentagon cards and from the calculations of "StratFor" will not work).

I am already silent about the titanic efforts of the Obama administration to build a “belt of hostility” around China, which naturally turned into full agony.

Again, the attempt to provoke Russia into an open military conflict with Ukraine failed. If this happened in the 2014 year, then the Americans would be able to create a broad military coalition from NATO countries.

And now, not only Poroshenko’s regime has completely discredited itself and is deadly sick of everyone (now the Kiev regime says it can “break off relations with the IMF”), but there is no agreement in NATO itself.

Contradictions of interests of the EU and the USA regularly generate new conflicts. And Turkey, which just a few years ago was not against participating in a showdown with Russia (at least indirectly, through its proxies in the form of Gray Wolves and all Tahrir), licked at least to the Crimea, after the American coup attempt and their support of Kurdish separatists reached a confrontation with the United States to the stage at which it closes American bases on its territory, purchases Russian air defense systems and bombes the American airfield Minnig.

More recently, the seemingly monolithic Western coalition is falling apart before it has entered into battle. And this is largely the result of both the Kremlin’s wait-and-see policy and the completely idiotic strategic and tactical mistakes of the Americans themselves. As well as the brilliant successes of Russian diplomacy, which fully managed to take advantage of these mistakes (although at times it was possible to squeeze harder).

This is also accompanied by a split within the United States itself, which, a year after Trump’s election, not only does not think to calm down, but also becomes stronger and more insidious (and the more irrational the conflict, the harder it is to extinguish it).

It is also worth adding an appeal to the Russians to the chief editor of the largest Chinese edition of the Global Times, in which he says that Russia and China need to accept a reality in which it is impossible to come to an agreement with the United States. And Xi Jinping appeals to the PLA, where he calls on the Chinese army to be as ready as possible to repel foreign (read "American") aggression.

So in the likely future confrontation there will be no “lonely Russia against a consolidated West”, as they dreamed of in Washington a few years ago. And "the weakening and fragmented US against the union of China, Russia and Iran" (and maybe Turkey, the question of which, as Moltke said, "three divisions").

Although the most preferable (and one of the most likely) options is to further weaken the US economy, the dollar loses its status as a global reserve currency (not for one day, of course) and the US is sliding into a civil war. The first scenario of the future of the United States from the "California trilogy," Kim Stanley Robinson.

No one has yet succeeded in deceiving the cycles of hegemony (as described by Immanuel Wallerstein), and I have no doubt that Washington will not succeed in this either.

PS It will be interesting to raise this text after another seven years to see to what extent I am right in my calculations and forecasts.

Alexander Rogers

Please note that the following extremist and terrorist organizations are prohibited in the Russian Federation: “Jehovah's Witnesses”, the National Bolshevik Party, the Right Sector, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), the Islamic State (IS, ISIL, DAISH) , Jabhat Fath al-Sham, Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaida, UNA-UNSO, Taliban, Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People, Misanthropic Division, Brotherhood by Korchinsky, "Trident them. Stepan Bandera "," Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists "(OUN).
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  1. tasha
    tasha 26 January 2018 05: 55
    +7
    And the Russians went to rapprochement with China

    Rather, China decided that Russia would come in handy. We all rejoice in the hope that Russia will play a leading role in the Russia-China alliance. The deepest error ...
    1. dSK
      dSK 26 January 2018 07: 26
      0
      Quote: tasha
      The deepest error
      ascribe to modern Russia "imperial" manners.
      Quote: Rogers
      whose side Russia will choose - it was not yet clear
      "Clear as daylight." hi
    2. Per se.
      Per se. 26 January 2018 07: 47
      +7
      Quote: tasha
      Rather, China decided that Russia would be useful to him.
      Why not, they bought and cloned Su-27 and C-300, and they already sell Su-35 and C-400 ... China is actively pumping out from capitalist Russia all that remains of the great Soviet heritage, learns the art of war in joint teachings, where while lags behind in experience. China is helped to develop as a superpower, with its not hidden territorial claims and claims to world hegemony. What does this friendship give Russia in the long term, will we get a yuan instead of a dollar and a claimant to the world throne on its borders? Roger is doing everything smoothly in the confrontation with the "weakening" of the USA, where, interestingly, transnational corporations and clans of all sorts of Rothschilds, who are the main owners of the global capitalist system, and who are only strengthening their positions, have disappeared? Friendship with China, which would have remained in the mud without the help of the USSR in industrialization, and the "Chinese miracle" after Damansky, when the West began to make anti-USSR, anti-Russia from the Chinese nationalists, so that again, as with Nazi Germany, to fight with others hands, make money in the new war. Something is hard to believe that the US wants to attack China, after all, they are trying to isolate and stifle with sanctions not Chinese "communists", with their terry piracy, technology theft and copyright infringement, but capitalist Russia, for its natural self-sufficiency and great Soviet legacy still dangerous to the west. It is also very doubtful that the Chinese soldiers will go to the far shores of America across the ocean, forgetting about our empty and rich lands. The German national-socialists were already friendly against the “hat of Europe”, the Chinese “national-communists” are now much more dangerous, and the trouble is that they are trying to persuade Russia to “be friends” with a potential aggressor who is near, against a potential aggressor who is overseas. In any case, we must be very careful about cooperation with China, which can only be subject to geopolitical laws and long-term national interests.
    3. Chertt
      Chertt 26 January 2018 07: 59
      +6
      What a neat forecast. So timid that I did not see the forecast. This is rather a story about what happened, with the assumption that everything will continue to develop in this way
      1. AnpeL
        AnpeL 26 January 2018 10: 09
        +1
        Like it or not, but the Turks cannot be considered full-fledged allies. Yes, even hardly any significant long-term partners are unlikely. A chance will turn up and they will again bite Russia, and this is not necessary to guess
      2. dauria
        dauria 26 January 2018 22: 45
        0
        So timid that I did not see the forecast


        Well, what are you ... In seven years, the author will "pick up this text" and see that yes, the year 2025 really came. As predicted. wink
        In general, I do not like "predictions" without branching. For example, like that. Such an event will occur with a probability of 0,3. And then there will be such and such and such and such. Otherwise, this, this, and that. Otherwise, Laplace determinism is obtained. laughing By the way, it is not a fact that the year 2025 will come.
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 26 January 2018 07: 17
    +4
    A good analyst is not ashamed to pick up archives of his publications
    You won’t praise yourself; you won’t think of another. But seriously, I like the author’s articles. And the global alignment has changed as expected.
    1. antivirus
      antivirus 26 January 2018 07: 46
      +2
      This would be the worst possible scenario. Apparently, the Kremlin also thought so.

      LAYOUT VERY SMALL CHANGED. We are at the beginning of a difficult long journey.
      they can count 10 or 300 hours in the Kremlin, but how to breathe the "spark of God" into the teacher and coach of the trolleybus, the milkmaid and the mythical reindeer herder so that they think and do the same, build the country? -That's why the Kremlin can not yet explain to people
      1. 97110
        97110 26 January 2018 19: 30
        +2
        Quote: antivirus
        but how to breathe the "spark of God" into the teacher and drove the trolleybus, the milkmaid and the mythical reindeer herder, so that they think and do the same way ...?

        We want to eat, we won’t go anywhere. Without a spark we will obediently do everything that the gentlemen of the shareholders come up with. And it’s sad to be silent when they are bossing, because they have already somehow received: “They didn’t mind enough!” Otherwise, they will refuse our services in building a capitalist country.
        1. antivirus
          antivirus 26 January 2018 19: 33
          0
          not only in 17 g, but also in other times and countries, there are examples of how "refusing" to receive "our services" took the path of correcting their behavior
          I, bye. I believe that it is possible to build a bright future.
  4. Alex_59
    Alex_59 26 January 2018 09: 14
    +3
    A "weakening and fragmented US against the union of China, Russia and Iran"
    In any case, this does not bode well for us (although it may be nothing terrible either). This is due to the fact that Russia with all the evidence in this alliance is taking the place that Great Britain took in NATO after the Second World War in relation to the United States.
    The parallel is very bright. UK as an empire disintegrated, and the USSR disintegrated. UK handed over the leader’s flag to the US neighbor; Russia handed over the leadership flag to China’s neighbor. The UK also transferred (sold) a significant part of its scientific knowledge and technology to the United States, and the Russian Federation does the same for the PRC. The pattern is obvious: the former empire is slipping to the junior partner of a new leader - the same for the UK-US and RF-PRC pairs.
    1. Per se.
      Per se. 26 January 2018 13: 19
      +2
      Quote: Alex_59
      Russia with all the evidence in this alliance becomes the place that in NATO after the Second World War, Great Britain occupied in relation to the United States.
      Muddy Britain remained muddy by Britain, and its dominion was made secret by the fact that the overseas “miscarriage” was entrusted with all the dirty work, made an “elephant in a china shop”, the world’s “bullies” of capitalism, is hardly the fact that the United States is true master. About socialism, with the analogy of the transfer of the "relay" ... In Russia, there is no socialism anymore, having picked up capitalism, we climbed into another pole of power, under other people's rules, and if here the Soviet Union fell, then the current Chinese nationalists did not take over the baton, in the former socialist bloc. China is needed by the West, and it is needed exactly as long as it is with its hands that the West hopes to deal with Russia, the only country up to the present, not looking at our traitors, which really represents a threat. China is anti-Russia, and, paraphrasing Harry Truman, the Chinese and Russians will have to kill each other as much as possible ... If this mission were not for China, they would have finished with it a long time ago, as soon as this “socialist” country attacked another a socialist country, becoming an enemy of the USSR, having lost the support and protection of the Soviet Union. China could now bend down with isolation and sanctions, but they do not, on the contrary, like the Third Reich, they will give it power to gain strength for the main mission. If China has twice fought with the socialist countries (events on the Damansky and the war with Vietnam), this is by definition not a socialist ideology, but Chinese nationalism, moreover, makes China as "socialist" as Nazi Germany was with their national socialism. You have an interesting analogy, but I'm sorry to have expressed my vision in this field. The only thing I would like to add, if we already talk about the banal of the two true allies of Russia, the army and the navy (or oil and gas), that for Russia now is one salvation, not to change the fleece (dollar to yuan), but to regain socialism , the only condition for our further development and preservation of the country, our true independence in the pole of power independent of capitalism.
  5. BAI
    BAI 26 January 2018 09: 18
    +3
    As well as the brilliant successes of Russian diplomacy

    In my opinion, the ratio of success and failure is 50 to 50.
    And given that the UN has not adopted a single pro-Russian resolution (only pro-Ukrainian and pro-American), as well as an unprecedented disgrace with the IOC, it is obvious to everyone that this is politics, not sport, then diplomacy is rather in the red. Success in Syria does not compensate for everything.
  6. CONTROL
    CONTROL 26 January 2018 11: 24
    +1
    Please note that the following extremist and terrorist organizations

    "Jehovah's Witnesses," how did they fly? harmless foolish guys like ... "without a king in my head" ...
    ... and the "Brotherhood of Korchinsky" what the hell! re, n on our heads ???
  7. Some kind of compote
    Some kind of compote 26 January 2018 12: 10
    18
    Russia should not choose a side
    And herself - to be a party good
  8. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 26 January 2018 20: 18
    0
    China will attack. America will attack. Anyone will attack as soon as they feel weak and able to win. Although now, there are many ways to win without waging war.
  9. Olezhek
    Olezhek 26 January 2018 20: 37
    +1
    When I wrote 2011 layouts for a year, the situation was largely undefined. And if the struggle for hegemony between the United States and China was predictable, then whose side would Russia choose is not yet clear.


    Yah?
  10. Antares
    Antares 27 January 2018 13: 08
    0
    Alexander Rogers is stability. The stability of Roger analytics.
    Born in Vinnitsa and forced to change analytics for the Ukrainian authorities, to analytics for the Russian authorities, he succeeded a lot.
    Brief abstracts are unchanged
    # USA lost everywhere and fall apart / surrender everything
    # Russia won everywhere, saved, replayed everyone and everything
    # Putin win
    #Ukrainean short (the favorite subject of many)
    I read his old articles, the same “analyst” can always say something - soon everything will be as I predicted. Still, I'm afraid life is not subject to analysts. Especially mouthpieces of power.
  11. 16112014nk
    16112014nk 27 January 2018 14: 25
    0
    Quote: Per se.
    Russia is now one salvation .... to regain socialism,

    Not for this, the liberals threshed on nails (according to Chubais). Grudinin - Glazyev - a return is possible with this bundle.
  12. ccsr
    ccsr 27 January 2018 17: 58
    0
    Quote: Chertt
    What a neat forecast. So timid that I did not see the forecast. This is rather a story about what happened, with the assumption that everything will continue to develop in this way

    Quite right - no serious forecast, only generalizing phrases that we often hear from different political scientists in different talk shows or in the media. You can’t say about such an author "you won’t drink skill ..."
  13. flicker
    flicker 27 January 2018 21: 38
    +2
    A wonderful article, a topic in the top ten - the main essence, the main nerve of the political situation in the world today.
    struggle for hegemony between the USA

    US hegemony under current economic and political rules is a big question. To preserve their hegemony, the American elites need a new world order - a global state dictating its will by the right of the strong (physically eliminating any - by the principle: I want it that way). In fact, the return of slaveholding 2.0 - as this is practically the only way to maintain their hegemony. To do this, it is necessary to eliminate all the forces that impede this: first of all, Russia and China, then destroy all national states, including their allies (Germany, Turkey, India, etc., etc.). ISIS was supposed to serve as a tool; through it, it was intended to eliminate unwanted states and intensify chaos.
    But hegemony at this price does not suit all US allies, hence the split in the ranks of the "collective west", including the USA itself.
    Until recently, the Western coalition seemed to be a monolith, falling apart, not yet engaging in battle ...
    To this is attached also a split within the United States itself, which a year after the election of Trump not only does not think to subside ...

    So in the likely future confrontation there will be not “a lonely Russia against a consolidated West”, as they dreamed in Washington a few years ago. And "the weakening and fragmented US against the alliance of China, Russia and Iran ....

    It is from this perspective that the upcoming presidential elections in Russia should be considered. Everything else is important, but it can wait a bit.
  14. Magarych
    Magarych 29 January 2018 08: 38
    0
    As a minimum, the author forgot three sleeping volcanoes, Africa, Latin America and, of course, Israel. The latter will certainly not allow something to be decided without them. Not for nothing to the new president of the United States already crammed into relatives.