Military Review

Bonuses from the possible failure of the "Olive Branch": the United States is looking for tools to deploy contingent in the west of Aleppo

47



The situation around Turkish aggression against the Kurdish canton of Afrin begins to develop in a completely unpredictable, only partially corrected direction by Damascus, Moscow and Washington. The tactical military operation “Olive Branch”, which began Saturday night on January 20 with a massive artillery strike of 155-mm self-propelled guns T-155 “Firtina” batteries and 227-mm MLRS MLRS, as well as a bombing strike of 72 tactical multi-purpose fighters F-16C / D Block 50/50 +, as a result, was noticeably stalled due to the coordinated actions of Kurdish anti-tank crews, who have vast experience in building anti-tank zones of restriction and prohibition of access and maneuver in the most difficult elevated terrain of the western and northern parts of the canton of Afrin. Being anti-tank virtuosos in terms of using the Fagot, Konkurs / -M and Metis complexes, the YPG / YPJ Athens detachments destroyed 5 main combat units on the very first day after the start of the ground stage of the Olive Branch tanks, which are in service with the Turkish Turkish Army, the list of which included not only the obsolete US Paton M60A1 / 3 with the equivalent frontal projection resistance of the tower of 260 mm and VLD - 220 mm, but also the more formidable German Leopard-2A4 vehicles, equivalent resistance the frontal projection of which from cumulative shells is 900-1050 mm (for the frontal armor plates of the tower) and 760 mm (for the upper frontal part of the hull). One of the tanks was damaged by the entry of ATGM into the side armor plate of the aft part of the tank.

The only achievement of the pro-Turkish “green” militants of the “Syrian Free Army” was the 2 — 5-kilometer advance into the territory of the Afrin canton on the northern part of the Syrian-Turkish border, up to the settlement of El-Shayuh Hurus, which is a tactically important springboard to ensure the offensive the channel on the west bank of the Afrin river of the same name due to the dominant (at the height) location of this settlement. In the same turn, the fire support of the rebels advancing along the riverbed from the hill near Shushuh is possible only up to the village of Durakli, located in 3 km to the south, because it is precisely such distances that limit the aimed fire of large-caliber sniper rifles and other small arms. As you can see, in this direction the pro-Turkish forces will long become bogged down in sluggish and exhausting battles with the defenders of Afrin, a similar situation can be traced in other mountain areas of the canton.

For example, positions captured on January 22 by FSA fighters on Mount Bersai ordered a long life. The well-developed trench system erected by YPG fighters made it possible to knock rebels out of occupied oporniks in just 8-12 hours. The successful return of Bersai was also facilitated by the tactically thought-out and rational distribution of sniper positions, machine-gun crews and assault squads moving forward from the village of Kastal. During the day, reinforcements from the capital city of Afrin repeatedly arrived in this locality, which played a decisive role in the failure of the Bersai operation of the SSA. It can be noted that with the ground phase of the “Olive Branch”, the Turkish NE and the forces of the armed opposition supporting them very seriously “shook up”. Any attempt to blitzkrieg in the direction of Afrin will end with the “burning” of dozens or even hundreds of units of Turkish armored vehicles from Soviet / Russian anti-tank systems, armed with Kurdish units. Moreover, as you might have noticed on the summaries and tactical online map syria.liveuamap.com, starting in the morning of January 21, tactical aviation The Turkish Air Force (F-16C / D fighters) has ceased to operate in the airspace over Afrin, as if by magic. The reason can be guessed the first time!

That's right, the Syrian Arab Army's transfer of air defense equipment to the southern approaches to Afrin, among which there may be Buk-M1 / 2E self-propelled anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as Pantsir-C1 anti-aircraft missile and artillery systems. This information was not replicated in news Runet and Syrian Internet publications; it became known exclusively through Kurdish sources and the opposition Syrian online map syria.liveuamap.com. What we have? The above air defense systems (in particular, this concerns the Buk-M2E complex) are capable of establishing a no-fly zone over the entire southern territory of the Afrin canton, including the administrative center of the Kurdish enclave. As a result, the capabilities of the Turkish Air Force in the tasks of direct support of the SSA formations advancing on the canton will turn out to be zero, since the pilots of the Turkish F-16C will be forced to nestle on the surface (operating at ultra-low altitudes in the mode of following the terrain). And this, in turn, will lead to hitting the high-altitude lines of interception of the Stinger and Strela MANPADS, which are in service with the YPG / YPJ. This can explain the rapid curtailment of the air phase of Operation Olive Branch, because it is no coincidence that the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Syrian Arab Republic Faisal Mikdad, a couple of days before the Turkish MRAU for Afrin, warned of the interception of Turkish military aircraft violating the airspace of the SAR.

Despite the fact that the deployment of anti-aircraft missiles for the implementation of the warning was carried out with a "late ignition" and the Turkish Falcons were still able to inflict more 115 precision strikes on the positions of the Kurdish National Self-Defense Forces, they are so noticeable in favor of the pro-Turkish forces and did not lead. Now time is far from being in favor of the militants of the “Syrian Free Army” and the NE of Turkey: unable to support the “green” groups from the air, in the canton of Afrin every day continues to work out the cannon as well as rocket artillery, which does not allow to achieve the required efficiency in the destruction of the defense infrastructure of the Kurdish enclave. At this point, the YPG / YPJ Afrin detachments continue to actively build up their combat potential, accepting well-armed volunteer units from all over Syrian Kurdistan, as well as from Syrian territory controlled by the government of the Syrian Arab Army. For example, the motorways from the cities of Aleppo, Az-Zahra and Nubel, controlled by the legitimate government, are fully open to defenders arriving in Afrin from all of Front Asia, as well as Europe. Undoubtedly, the largest number of armed fighters come from Manbij, Kamishli, Raqqah and Hasakah.

Therefore, the Turkish Air Force, as well as artillery units do not stop trying to prevent the transfer of Kurdish reinforcements from cities located in the northern parts of the Euphrates and Jazeera regions (in the fire control zone of the Turkish air-to-surface class). For example, 22 in January 2018 of the year, a Turkish rocket was launched from the outskirts of the Turkish border town of Ceylanpinar in Kurdish Ras al-Ainu. On the same day, an airstrike was struck against a Kurdish convoy that advanced towards Afrin from the western neighborhood of Kamishli. Nevertheless, all these “movements” of Ankara do not give any results, especially considering the possible arrival of several thousand Kurdish fighters from Iraqi Kurdistan. It is worth noting here that despite the provocative anti-Syrian statements made by Maldan Bakhtiar, representative of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (stated the need for SFA field commanders to realize that "her rights were violated not by Afrin, but by Damascus), the operational deployment of armed Iraqi Kurds, as well as SDF volunteers in Afrin will be a very profitable action for both Syria and Russia. The piquant detail here is that it is the African YPG detachments, together with the SDF who came to the rescue, can play a rather important role in the stripping of the "Idlib gadyushnik."

Let's finally take a look at the situation from the right angle, without blindly praising the ghostly friendship with Recep Erdogan, and also not constantly looking at the recent receipt of permission to build the second branch of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. Here we see this scenario. Not everyone remembers that October 7 2017, Erdogan announced a "serious military operation" in the province of Idlib against militants "Dzhebhat al-Nusra", IG and other terrorist groups. He also “swore” that “Turkish brothers” from the SFA are already involved in active confrontation with terrorists to the fullest extent. But what did we observe in practice? Ankara has no plans to begin any active phase in the fight against the inhabitants of the Ilib Gadyushnik: since the October announcement of Tayyip Erdogan on the positions of Al-Nusra and the IG, there has not been a single decent missile and artillery strike from the Turkish Firtin and MLRS, likewise, the tactical aviation of the Turkish Air Force did not work for terrorists. Is this not an indicator of Erdogan's true intentions?

Why, despite being in a tactical “cauldron” (surrounded by the Syrian-Turkish border and the territory controlled by the CAA), did the “idlibsky rabble” continue to withstand fierce resistance to the government forces almost without difficulty? And this is after thousands of rocket and air strikes by the Russian Aerospace Force and the Syrian Air Force! With 100% probability, it can be argued that all these “green formations” from SFA to Dzhebhat an-Nusra continue to receive support across the Turkish border in the Hatay silt area. Do not understand this is impossible. Conclusion: Erdogan and Yildyrim continue to use all strata of terrorist groups as their “hand-held Cerberus” to adjust the military-political picture in the north of the SAR in their favor. However, this is not the most interesting fact in the “Syrian denouement”.

Washington may soon intervene in the situation around Afrin Canton, which, after careful analysis of the observed neutrality on the part of Damascus and Moscow, is already considering the possibility of creating a new “security zone” in the northern part of the Afrin canton to “stabilize the situation and meet Turkey’s demands. On this, 22 January, during a visit to France, said US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. And no matter how unpleasant it is to realize, once again all the trump cards can be in the hands of the States. Playing the “Afrin card” by the White House does not promise anything good for the northwestern provinces of Syria: the Afrin YPGs that previously relied on our military police will instantly see their “savior” in the States and from that moment an expanded American presence will take place “two steps” from Avb Hamim. You do not need to have great talents to understand what consequences it is fraught with. Naturally, this is the opening of channels for the supply of American weapons to Idlib in order to constantly maintain a hotbed of tension exhausting the Syrian army; This includes regular attacks by Ahrar al-Sham, radical branches of the FSA and other groups against Russian and Syrian military installations in Tartus and Latakia. Admission of Americans to Afrin can be a very unpleasant strategic miscalculation of the Syrian and Russian sides.

Meanwhile, there is still time to think, because the Turkish government spokesman Bekir Bozdag gave Tillerson a clear answer that Ankara would continue the confrontation with the YPG (without any “security zones”) until the military support of the “Syrian Democratic forces "in the main territory of the Rozhava. The most sensible and sudden decision for both Ankara and Washington would be the introduction of units of the regular Syrian army in Afrin under the cover of Russian air defenses. Already this would once and for all put a fat point in the intricacies of the imperial plans of the United States and Turkey on the partitioning of the north-western territories of Syria.

Information sources:
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/955898584305668097
https://ria.ru/syria/20171007/1506388948.html
https://syria.liveuamap.com/
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47 comments
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 24 January 2018 07: 17
    +5
    Erdogan pursues purely his goals, and this must be understood.
    1. Golovan Jack
      Golovan Jack 24 January 2018 07: 24
      12
      Quote: aszzz888
      Erdogan pursues purely his goals, and this must be understood.

      It would be a little strange if he pursued goals ... strangers. No?
      For example, I’m only interested in how much the Russian Federation can use the movements of Erdogan (and other players) for their own purposes, without getting involved directly in a military operation.
      We stock up on seeds, observe with interest ...
      1. Arberes
        Arberes 24 January 2018 10: 01
        +7
        We stock up on seeds and observe with interest.

        I'd rather take a beer with crackers. Personally, I was very intrigued by the author of this article about helping the Kurds clean up the Idlib region.

        The piquant detail here is that it is the Athenian units of the YPG, together with the SDF who came to the rescue, that can play a rather important role in the cleansing of the Idlib Viper.

        They will help (Kurds) and then what ?????????
        To visit the Turkish army again? As history shows, the Kurds do not give up the occupied territories, and what will it lead to, even more expansion of the territories they control?
        Well, if you only create army units with a small percentage of Kurds in their ranks? I doubt that the Kurds would go for it.
        This is utopia!
    2. DanSabaka
      DanSabaka 24 January 2018 08: 02
      +1
      IT IS NOT ONE PURSUITING ITS GOALS ....
      peace in Syria is not needed by any of the parties to the conflict ......
      1. Nulgorod
        Nulgorod 25 January 2018 16: 46
        0
        In addition to Russia, please note.
        1. DanSabaka
          DanSabaka 25 January 2018 17: 18
          +1
          Yes? argue ....
          1. Nulgorod
            Nulgorod 25 January 2018 17: 43
            0
            Arguing what? Russia advocates maintaining the constitutional regime and restoring the territorial integrity of Syria. What do you think this means?
            1. DanSabaka
              DanSabaka 25 January 2018 17: 53
              +1
              this does not mean that the preservation of the constitutional regime and the restoration of the territorial integrity of Syria should happen right now ..... there must be a war for it .... preferably - a sluggish, not very expensive, long ..... that would be a constant struggle of all against all and further did not allow Syria to be used as a transit country for Chinese manufactured goods, Qatari gas, Iranian oil to Europe ....
              But at the same time, I would keep Israel, the Saudis and Turkey in constant military and financial tension .....
              1. Nulgorod
                Nulgorod 25 January 2018 18: 04
                0
                Well, you know, it’s harmful to look for “multi-paths” everywhere, they may not be there (proved by amateur chess players and Ostap Bender). This porridge was not brewed by Russia, and we have no reason to "tear the veins" for its quickest dissolving. Syria was and remains a friendly country, so these issues could be resolved in a different way. The Libyan scenario was not allowed - already a success.
                1. DanSabaka
                  DanSabaka 25 January 2018 18: 36
                  0
                  Do you believe in fairy tales? ..... a friendly Arab country? ..... an Arab can only be friends with himself, with the rest the Arab either trades or fights ....
                  and this is not taking into account politics .....
                  and what do you think, on what is the Russian friendship with Syria based?
                  1. Nulgorod
                    Nulgorod 25 January 2018 23: 31
                    0
                    This can be said not only about Arabs. What is it based on? On the coincidence of interests, maybe? Assad once refused to run a pipe from Qatar, for which he received the label of a tyrant. Why did he do that? In order not to spoil relations with Russia and not bend under the West, was the example of Libya before my eyes? Or offered little money? Is it that important? What matters is the result.
                    1. DanSabaka
                      DanSabaka 26 January 2018 07: 06
                      0
                      or maybe Assad was just bargaining and wanted to get more benefit from this pipe? .... or from its absence? ....
                      or is he simply out of principle and love for a distant, distant northern country?
                      1. Nulgorod
                        Nulgorod 26 January 2018 17: 20
                        0
                        There are no "principles", much less "love" in politics. There are interests: short-term and long-term. The Qatari pipe could bring Assad momentary benefits, but promised problems in the future. The benefit was not enough to cover future risks. In light of this, Syria was our union state. And now she’s completely become a friend.
  2. Rodimtsev
    Rodimtsev 24 January 2018 07: 37
    +2
    Yes, frankly speaking, Turkey did not hide its goals and intentions, and it behaves quite consistently, that we don’t like it, it’s understandable, but what is it to them? There their border is if anything, and they never seemed to be kissing the Kurds, so that all the air shocks from our, American or the other side, the Turks will calmly ignore and continue to do what is beneficial to them
  3. Mih1974
    Mih1974 24 January 2018 07: 53
    +2
    The complicated and murky story is there, and it very much resembles both Serbia and the like countries - when the population sees and rejoices in the presence of Russia, and the tops of the independent power tend and bustle thus lead to an ass. negative So here only "autonomy" in the opera of the leaders of the Kurds of Afrin prevents them from returning as soon as possible to the jurisdiction of Assad and thereby getting full protection of both the Syrian Army and the air forces, because the Turks do not have the audacity to bomb the territory officially controlled by Assad (visible from the ears )
    1. Anyone
      Anyone 24 January 2018 10: 30
      0
      ... after all, the Turks do not have the audacity to bomb the territory officially controlled by Assad (evidently already received from the ears).

      You read such comments and it becomes a little ridiculous ... It’s like bandits got into your house, robbing him, breaking furniture, and you locked yourself in the bedroom and say: “they have enough arrogance to go into the room that I control”))
  4. Loess
    Loess 24 January 2018 08: 00
    +2
    Some terrorists are fighting with other terrorists, while Turkish armor burns. Like spiders in a jar. I hope this is beneficial to us.
  5. g1washntwn
    g1washntwn 24 January 2018 08: 50
    +1
    the introduction of regular Syrian army units in Afrin

    The Kurds said this their decisive star-striped no. What negotiations can be with them? For three years now, the Kurds have believed that the United States is able to provide them with an independent state. But in realities, apart from the interest of the Kurds, this Kurdistan is not beneficial to anyone. WITH any sides of all this tangled tangle.
    1. flicker
      flicker 25 January 2018 00: 35
      +2
      Kurdistan is possible only in Turkey and instead of Turkey
      1. g1washntwn
        g1washntwn 25 January 2018 07: 22
        0
        There are many different Kurds. Their opinion is the territory of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and almost Iran. Give free rein, in general, under all their enclaves around the world, Kurdistan will be announced. It is as if the Chinese diaspora in Manhattan suddenly declared Chinatown the territory of the PRC :)
  6. Buka001
    Buka001 24 January 2018 09: 25
    +3
    The only right solution is the union of Turkey and Russia and a joint solution to the problems created by the West. It is necessary to unite and in the most decisive way to clean and restore order there. This is only possible through the joint efforts of Turkey and Russia.
    1. Golovan Jack
      Golovan Jack 24 January 2018 09: 55
      12
      Quote: Buka001
      The only right decision is the union of Turkey and Russia

      GYYY laughing laughing laughing
      Well, from your country it may look just that good
      Quote: Buka001
      It is necessary to unite and in the most decisive way to clean and restore order there

      And to whom, excuse me, is this "necessary"? To the Turks? You?
      Well, here and "unite", and "enter" ... RF, why should I sign it?
      Quote: Buka001
      This is only possible through the joint efforts of Turkey and Russia.

      As I understand it, the Kurds are a problem for the Turks.
      So let them decide it yes
  7. gafarovsafar
    gafarovsafar 24 January 2018 09: 43
    +1
    the more the Kurds and the Turks destroy each other, the better it is for Assad to let them through their territory. Nua, if you rock the boat and bring Amers with you, they’ll close the neck or even specifically hit the Turks
    1. Korsar4
      Korsar4 25 January 2018 03: 22
      0
      Cynically. But it seems so.
  8. SPLV
    SPLV 24 January 2018 09: 47
    +4
    Misters administrators as always do not care. As Americans blame for illiteracy, so always happy, but how to work hard themselves, so do not want to.
    Eugene Daman was already tired of his rebels. But, edit articles, apparently, below the dignity of some. Yes, and why? People hawala.
    Analytics are analytics, and messing up the Russian language seems to have become the norm.
  9. Anyone
    Anyone 24 January 2018 10: 12
    +2
    I liked the 5 Turkish tanks destroyed only on the first day of the operation. Proofs will be? Or should the author of the article believe in the word?
  10. Buka001
    Buka001 24 January 2018 11: 07
    +2
    Quote: Golovan Jack
    Quote: Buka001
    The only right decision is the union of Turkey and Russia

    GYYY laughing laughing laughing
    Well, from your country it may look just that good
    Quote: Buka001
    It is necessary to unite and in the most decisive way to clean and restore order there

    And to whom, excuse me, is this "necessary"? To the Turks? You?
    Well, here and "unite", and "enter" ... RF, why should I sign it?
    Quote: Buka001
    This is only possible through the joint efforts of Turkey and Russia.

    As I understand it, the Kurds are a problem for the Turks.
    So let them decide it yes


    RF then why climbed into Syria. In your opinion, in such important moments to say "why do we need it"?
  11. Aleks2048
    Aleks2048 24 January 2018 11: 18
    +2
    Quote: Buka001
    The only right solution is the union of Turkey and Russia and a joint solution to the problems created by the West. It is necessary to unite and in the most decisive way to clean and restore order there. This is only possible through the joint efforts of Turkey and Russia.

    Nonsense. The Russian Federation will unite with one of the NATO countries against what the country is a hegemon of NATO?
  12. K-50
    K-50 24 January 2018 11: 31
    +2
    The Kurds are like a corrupt defect. With their behavior it is very difficult to agree on anything important with them, they will betray and sell. sad
  13. Anyone
    Anyone 24 January 2018 11: 44
    +3
    The article is more than strange - it’s all about fiction. Personally, it seems to me that the author took three or four messages about the course of hostilities from the media and Twitter, and then “hung” on them several literary paragraphs. The author of the type claims to know the location of the sniper positions of the Kurds in Afghanistan, has already conducted an analysis of their effectiveness, knows which armor plate and from which the Turkish tank and a lot of other things were hit in almost online mode ...))
  14. dDYHA
    dDYHA 24 January 2018 12: 18
    +1
    Fair. Spit on this Syria. We have frosts.
  15. A.Kaledin
    A.Kaledin 24 January 2018 12: 34
    +2
    What awkward nonsense did I read now ??? It seems that the analyte has nothing to write but it is necessary ... For I want to eat.
  16. Pacifist
    Pacifist 24 January 2018 15: 06
    0
    Yeah, knot. Where not to throw "partners" everywhere.
  17. Ivanov IV
    Ivanov IV 24 January 2018 16: 29
    +3
    Turks were eager for battle. At least raged. So let them show themselves, and let ours be engaged in urgent matters.
  18. Babalaykin
    Babalaykin 24 January 2018 17: 14
    +1
    72 tactical multi-role fighters F-16C / D Block 50/50 +


    We took a large resource, it took three days, but I won’t hear victorious reports)

    And where is their best Altai tank in the world to all tanks?
  19. Babalaykin
    Babalaykin 24 January 2018 17: 18
    0


    Maybe someone knows what they shoot on this video?
    1. myobius59
      myobius59 24 January 2018 18: 17
      +1
      I don’t know what, but I see that they’re shooting very badly. And they scream well, loudly. If they also shot ...
    2. lekalpan
      lekalpan 25 January 2018 11: 29
      0
      70mm rockets from the T-129 Attack helicopter.
      1. Babalaykin
        Babalaykin 25 January 2018 19: 10
        0
        more like an BMP, there the projectile doesn’t fly for long
  20. Babalaykin
    Babalaykin 24 January 2018 17: 20
    0
    72 tactical multi-role fighters F-16C / D Block 50/50 +


    They used a large resource, but we won’t hear victorious reports, and where is the Altai tank to all the tanks the Turkish tank?
  21. Awaz
    Awaz 24 January 2018 18: 31
    0
    the topic is very not beautiful for the Russian Federation. At the moment, only with the general victory of the Turks, the Russian authorities can count on a good game. In any other case, there will be a cruel bummer. If the Americans started this war (which is not excluded, not even by force, but specially provoked the Turks), then Russia and Assad have no hope of ever reaching an agreement with the Kurds
  22. Plate
    Plate 24 January 2018 18: 47
    +2
    Everything would be fine, but the Kurds will clearly insist on at least the broadest autonomy from Damascus in post-war Syria. And this is a mine under the territorial integrity of Syria. It would be nice to use Erdogan’s attempts to pile on the Kurds to reduce Kurdish post-war ambitions, and at the same time exhaust the Turkish army, preventing it from using aircraft in the operation zone. Well, at the right time, when the Kurds will agree to become an ordinary Syrian province after the war already, if only the Turks would not beat them (if the Turks want to beat them, then they will), introduce CAA into the territory of the Kurds and announce it.
  23. Korsar4
    Korsar4 25 January 2018 03: 20
    0
    Zaruba there is not weak begins. I think we need to look carefully at this. But from the other side.
  24. lekalpan
    lekalpan 25 January 2018 11: 24
    0
    And what only Iran and Russia have a monopoly on the division of Syria?
    1. Nulgorod
      Nulgorod 25 January 2018 16: 48
      +1
      You got something wrong: Russia and Iran are trying to put Syria together.
  25. Vladimir SHajkin
    Vladimir SHajkin 25 January 2018 20: 16
    0
    The most reasonable and sudden decision for both Ankara and Washington could be the introduction of regular Syrian army units in Afrin under the guise of Russian air defense systems. This would once and for all put an end to the intricacies of the imperial plans of the United States and Turkey to divide the northwestern territories of Syria.
    - This would be reasonable in terms of annihilating the SSA and the state’s presence in Syria, but are the states interested in this? And that means that it is necessary to talk about rationality - another.
  26. Horse meat
    Horse meat 27 January 2018 08: 55
    0
    Now you can free Constantinople.