For some reason, in the press, the law “On the peculiarities of state policy to ensure the state sovereignty of Ukraine over the temporarily occupied territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions” is called “On the Reintegration of Donbass”. I do not know where these words come from, because this law - and its name, its essence - has nothing to do with reintegration. Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not become silent and called things by their names - preparation for war. Doesn’t the scenario of the destruction of the Serbian Krajina look like? Do we not see the legislative justification for the genocide that is planned to be carried out according to the Croatian scenario?
I saw and I see that during any geopolitical operation — be it in Ukraine, in the Balkans or in the Middle East — the experience of previous operations (which are today called hybrid wars, previously - humanitarian operations) is necessarily taken into account. Corrected some shortcomings. But the main thing - everything is taken successful. And the operation conducted by the United States and a number of NATO countries in Ukraine, of course, develops consistently, taking into account the experience of previous operations and circumstances, as they say, at the scene. At first, a coup d'état was carried out, and a course was immediately taken towards hostility towards Russia, towards suppressing any resistance to this Nazi-fascist coup. Here is an imitation of the negotiation process. Even under Yanukovych, under the auspices of international mediators, the authorities tried to negotiate with the opposition, and Yanukovych even made concessions, but the radicals, who then had no idea anything, categorically refused, and no mediators guaranteed anything. Then the next stage of the escalation of events was needed. The Minsk agreements, an attempt to somehow resolve the crisis by political methods, also worked, creating an illusion of the possibility of a political settlement, reconciliation, and so on. Probably, the United States is already tired of playing these illusions, the Minsk agreements. It is clear that no one was going to carry them out from Kiev either. And today the time has come for the legislative declaration of war on the Russian Federation, for the violent suppression of all resistance in Donetsk and Lugansk. In essence, this is a law on martial law, military actions, on giving Poroshenko the authority to unleash military actions, to create military groups. This is a law on war, not purely in theory, but purely in practical terms.
And, of course, this law includes Ukraine in the system of actions by the United States and European members of NATO against Russia. The law on sanctions against Russia will be powerfully involved in February-March. We see that today the Americans are raising the military budget to almost the record level of 2011 of the year. The increase in military spending is served as a necessary measure to deter Russian aggression. The creation of two new commands in NATO, the build-up of factions at the Russian borders and the buildup of military activity — all this suggests that a larger-scale version of a powerful strike on Russia has been launched. The spiral of violence, the whirling of lies is twisted up and gaining momentum, sucking the last hopes for a peaceful outcome of the confrontation in the Donbas.
All this is real, all this is funded by the same US military budget, Ukraine is allocated 350 million dollars - primarily “for security,” as they say in the United States. Lethal supplies, offensive in essence weapons carried out today as part of a large operation against Russia.
In recent days, President Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has been in the United States. And today came from there news on the topic that we are discussing. I will quote Nazarbayev: “We said that Minsk-1 has stalled, at an impasse. Need Minsk-2. (I will clarify that the seemingly stillborn Minsk-2 has not yet been buried, so Nazarbayev was probably referring to Minsk-3 - L. I). He, Donald Trump, says - let's go somewhere else. I say - let's. In general, it was originally supposed to be in Kazakhstan, I made trips to gather everyone to meet there. So we agreed that we will work in this direction. The Minsk agreements are at an impasse, I think. Now the peacekeepers should be brought to the Donbass and Lugansk, so that they define the border, it is necessary to draw closer to their borders, somehow to approach mutual understanding. There is no such understanding today. ”
Many were outraged by these words of Nazarbayev - they say, opposed the position of Russia. But let's admit: Minsk-2 died a long time ago. On paper, he seems to be there, there is the Norman Four (or Five), and the result is the reverse. The process goes in the opposite direction from the settlement. It is clear that the Americans are in charge of Ukraine, there is nothing to talk with Merkel or with the French president. We must talk with the Americans. And since we cannot talk with them today (Trump was not even allowed to meet with Putin in Vietnam), then let Nursultan Nazarbayev say. We need to work with him in confidence. Please let Kazakhstan be the negotiating platform. Look - Astana has become the capital of a political settlement in Syria and is gaining experience. And why not use it on the issue of Donbass? I think that this is the best option for both Russia and Ukraine, if negotiations take place in Kazakhstan.
About the purely military component of the problem. Poroshenko has her hands untied for the use of military equipment. Could it be that now, since there are no restrictions on the application tanks, planes, bombs, will we all see this in the Donbass in the near future?
Indeed, now the situation is very dangerous and, above all, for the Donbass. It must be admitted that today both the combat composition of the armed groups of these two unrecognized republics and the morale of the population are not at all those that they were a couple of years ago. Today, a lot of problems. The volunteers who fought there mostly went home. Many today are demoralized by the fact that they came from the central and eastern regions of Ukraine to fight, and at the end of the active phase of the fighting turned out to be unnecessary and left for Russia - someone to the Crimea, someone to Central Russia. But today there is a process of their deportation to Ukraine. Do you understand what a traitorous act? Russian courts are massively deporting them. I will name only one name, just today it is being discussed on the Internet - the court decided to extradite militia to Ukraine, Nikolai Tregub, a member of Slavyansk defense. If he was alone - it would be an exception. But it concerns all. People who had been brought the sword of justice were brought to me in the Crimea during my rest, and they were going to Moscow for protection. And every fact of the deportation of the militia becomes common property. Today, from the Vinnitsa and, especially, from the Transcarpathian region, the Donbass will not be protected. They have nowhere to live.
And the Ukrainian armed forces, we will honestly admit, are greatly strengthened. The order has been established, the defense enterprises have earned, they supply their own equipment to the army. Plus, the Americans supply, plus Bandera themselves buy weapons for American money. And so the balance of power today is alarming for the people's republics.
In addition, Russia behaves politically is somehow not entirely responsible. Authorities say: "In Ukraine, there was a coup." However, with the Nazi regime at the very least, but the relationship is built. And we don’t recognize the results of a legitimate referendum in the Donbass, and of course we don’t establish official relations - there are only informal relations. I do not understand the position of the Russian authorities with regard to Donetsk and Lugansk: what does it want? And I have the impression that Moscow wants to push them out, to push it out, to the Kiev regime, because I don’t see anything else.
Actually, Minsk-2 was an attempt to get rid of the insurgent Donbass and give it to Kiev - with observance, of course, of all sorts of verbal polity. But what will the top leadership of Russia do now, what exactly Putin will do now? The oligarch is perfectly friendly on both sides of the border, the trade turnover is growing, the branches of “our” banks both worked in Ukraine and are working. That is, here the “elite” has full agreement. And we know how the oligarchs influence the same Putin. The war will start, the planes will drop bombs on Donetsk, on Lugansk - and that Putin will repeat again: “We will follow the Minsk-2 course”? And Minsk-2 passed away. What will happen?
The situation for Putin is really complicated. First, the March 18 presidential elections will be held, and if elected, it will not immediately take over the full powers of its March 19 March, there will be a “shift shift” in power that can be tried. Secondly, we know that it is in February and March that an attack will be launched on our oligarchy, on the officials. They will arrest their bills, real estate, be forced to take American citizenship or be recruited by Americans, and so on. And in this situation, as it seems to me, Putin will just confine himself only to statements that “this is aggression”, maybe, that “this is genocide”. But actions are unlikely to follow. Indeed, for four years nothing has been done to ensure the security of the unrecognized states of Donbass and to make them allies of Russia. And it was necessary to recognize the results of the referendum. Not to return the DPR and LPR to Russia, maybe (well, they did not ask for this), but to recognize and sign the corresponding agreement. And to act by the methods by which we act with legitimate, recognized states - for example, with Syria. This is our right.
And now, to assume something positive, to be honest, is very difficult. Because Putin is no longer the political determination that was in 2014 year when Crimea was admitted to Russia. Today we see that pressure from the West has increased, complex pressure, and they will beat us powerfully. The pressure on third countries and companies that can cooperate with us in political, economic, and especially military matters has increased. That is, the Americans launched a decisive offensive, and in this I see nothing good for Donbass.
I am a military man and I understand perfectly well - if I go on the offensive, you cannot stop him. There is a temporary respite, the replacement of the composition of the troops, but it is necessary to continue the offensive operation. And there is one more military, offensive principle: if success was designated in a certain direction, then it must be developed, and additional forces must be thrown. In this case - to engage political, military, economic levers. Develop tactical success in operational and then strategic. And the Russian "elite" at some stage stopped and began to celebrate victory. The "winners" began to summarize something and refused to go on the offensive further. Naturally, the opposing side in such a situation regrouped, clarifies its plans and strikes back. We got it. Our resolute, offensive foreign policy is not supported by our rear — our internal condition, our economy, and our financial situation. Rear - this is our weak point. And now the Americans, as provided for by the principles of military action, are beating at the weakest point. The main blows of the other side are on personnel policy, the system of government and the economy - and the economy itself.