Military Review

Sturm Afnina as a solution to Russia's problems with the help of Turkish blood

50



Kurdish self-defense forces in Africa are doomed. They are doomed from the moment they linked their fate with the United States, and Turkey became their enemy. Even after that, their defeat was only a matter of time and a convenient moment that Ankara would choose to destroy the enclave of its long-standing enemy ...

"Shield of the Euphrates"

The destruction of the Kurdish enclaves in northern Syria became the official doctrine of the Turkish government immediately after the failed coup in the summer of 2016. The invasion of the Turkish army in August of the same year, codenamed "The Euphrates Shield", was intended to prevent all Kurdish territories from becoming one and, if possible, reject the Kurdish military formations beyond the Euphrates.



And they also inflicted the most important blow that upset the defense of IGIL in northern Syria, which in the future allowed the SAA to conduct a series of brilliant offensive operations that ended with the occupation of the entire western bank of the Euphrates (which Damascus and Moscow could not have dreamed of the year before).

In 2016, the Kurdish problem of Turkey was only partly resolved. The Turkish forces were bogged down in the battle for the El-Bab, which they unsuccessfully stormed for almost six months. This, as well as the US demarche, which then made it clear that they would defend their Kurdish allies until the end, cooled the plans of Ankara, and they hastened to pretend that they were satisfied with what has been achieved.

In some ways, Russian partners helped them to preserve their image in front of their population, creating security zones between pro-Turkish and Kurdish units, which allowed Erdogan not to answer the question of why the Turkish armed forces could not crush the Kurds.

At this the first stage of the Turkish "aggression" in Syria was over. Yes, Ankara was forced to retreat, but this did not force her to cancel her plans.

Preparation of the operation to solve the “Afrin Question”

Almost immediately after the end of the battle for El-Bab and the conclusion of a temporary truce with the Kurds, Turkey began to prepare a new operation. For her part, it was logical to continue solving the Kurdish issue, clearing the enclave of Afrin from their influence, which, as a result of the battles of the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017, found itself almost completely isolated.



On three sides, it was surrounded by Turkish forces, and on the fourth, the Idlib enclave. Only a small part of Afrin communicated with the government territory through which he received humanitarian supplies, and military equipment was supplied by the United States through the Mining airfield, which Kurdish forces managed to capture as a result of the summer and autumn fighting of 2016.

Meanwhile, clouds over the enclave began to thicken rapidly. By the end of the winter of 2016-2017, Turkey was able to take full control of the Idlib enclave, and the plan for a new operation against the Kurds began to loom rapidly in the Turkish General Staff.

Storming Afrin as a solution to Russia's problems with the help of Turkish blood


His main idea was to use the almost complete environment of Afrin and absolute superiority in forces, and especially in heavy weapons, to create pressure on Kurdish troops from all sides at once. Thus, pro-Turkish forces will deprive the Kurds of their only advantage - actions along internal operational lines. Forced to defend their territory immediately and everywhere, Kurdish troops will not be able to maneuver reserves, and their resistance will immediately turn into a focal, which the pro-Turkish forces, with the support of the Turkish regular army, quickly suppress.

In general, by the summer of 2017, Ankara had finished all preparatory operations and was just waiting for the right moment to strike. Its main new “partner” in the region, Russia, was categorically opposed to conducting an operation against Afrin until such time as the Igilov troops were crushed (IG prohibited in the Russian Federation). And this happened only in the last days of December 2017.

By this time, Turkey, due to the “Annusrovsky” (“An-Nusra” banned in the Russian Federation) coup lost control over Idlib and was forced in October 2017 of the year to declare an ultimatum to the militants. Either they give up the northern part of the province so that Turkey can continue to keep Afrin surrounded, or she threatened them with war. As a result, in the middle of October 2017, Turkish troops entered Idlib and, without meeting resistance, again took up their positions opposite the Kurds.

So, by the beginning of the 2018 year, the preparation and the prerequisites for the beginning of the operation against Afrina had been fulfilled.

Problems of the USA. Why does Turkey carry chestnuts for Russia?

The United States is now in the Middle East, one problem follows another. In general, they did not manage to realize their strategic plans for 2017 year:



Break through the corridor from Raqqah to Jordan and “liberate” most of Syria, linking all the enclaves under their control in Syria.

Simultaneously with Idlib's Turkish ultimatum in mid-October 2017, another pro-American protégé in the region, Iraqi Kurdistan, received an ultimatum from Iran and Iraq and was forced to clear Kirkuk and a number of strategically important territories.

Do not have time to forget these troubles, as there was a new one. Damascus, taking advantage of the "random" appearance of ISIL gangs on the territory of the idlib enclave, began a military operation against local militants. Thus, one of the main US strongholds in the region also came under threat. And now another problem has emerged, albeit a long-awaited problem ...



In fact, the US has no choice. To help their Kurdish allies in Africa, they already can not do anything after the single line that connects them, Mining airfield, was put out of order. They did not dare to put their authority on the line, realizing that in this case the defeat in Africa could turn into a catastrophe for them in Syria.

The East is a delicate matter, and if you made a promise to protect an ally and did not fulfill it, then tomorrow everyone will refuse you.

That is why Washington chose to retreat in this completely losing situation and leave the Afrintsy one on one with the Turks. Kurds can now rely only on Assad's help. That is, they can accept his authority and declare himself a territory under the control of the government. It was on this morning 20 January hinted to them by the Turks and it was this option that was offered to the local leaders of Moscow. But the Kurds responded with a proud refusal, after which the ground part of the Turkish operation began.

It was beautiful, but stupid. Even taking into account the weak enough for one of the best NATO armies, Turkey outstrips Afrin by orders of magnitude, which means that the long one will not last. So, as a result, he will be forced to ask Moscow for help, which she has long been trying to achieve.
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  1. Mar.Tirah
    Mar.Tirah 22 January 2018 15: 19
    24
    The Kurds are controlled, and supported by the United States, a priori could not agree with Assad. In general, their (Kurds) logic is certainly interesting. We will support the United States, but you Russians stand up for us. But you did not stand up, so you are the same bloody dictator as Erdogan. This is already a clear trick of the Americans. In general, the war of all, with everyone, is the fad of the CIA. And he clearly succeeds.
    1. Doliva63
      Doliva63 22 January 2018 16: 12
      10
      In any case, it is precisely these Kurds who deserve their own.
      1. Mar.Tirah
        Mar.Tirah 22 January 2018 16: 27
        16
        The people didn’t deserve. The mercenary mercenaries served in the service of the USA. It was necessary to tell us this !!!!! "Russia is currently an ally of the Turkish state (...) and is on the verge of war with us (...). We had our agreements with Russia, but she ignored them, betraying us, ”said the Kurdish commander of the YPG Kurdish fighters Sipan Hemo. He probably doesn’t know that we don’t care who to hammer into the Syrian sand. with ISIS.
        1. volot-voin
          volot-voin 23 January 2018 14: 11
          +7
          Quote: Mar. Tira
          Arod did not deserve. Merchant mercenaries served in the service of the United States.

          Russia's actions are certainly correct. Hands of Turkey crush proshtatovsky enclave - super))) Yes, and even sow discord inside NATO ......
          The Kurds certainly arouse sympathy as a people seeking independence (a noble mission), and frantically seeking allies in this field, in this case they chose our opponents, and our paths diverged. Let now complain about the USA that does not protect them)))
          1. Mar.Tirah
            Mar.Tirah 23 January 2018 16: 27
            +1
            I agree. Moreover, part of the Kurds are fighting on the side of Syria and Russia. So they still have time to think with whom are they?
      2. boboss
        boboss 22 January 2018 17: 24
        +2
        Kurds .... so different
        1. 97110
          97110 22 January 2018 18: 23
          +5
          Quote: boboss
          Kurds .... so different

          Nothing, you can combine and blame the Orthodox genocide in 1915. Which they really are to blame. Let them repent and ask for forgiveness. But the Turks are behaving correctly - not to blame.
        2. Nikolai Grek
          Nikolai Grek 23 January 2018 01: 39
          0
          Quote: boboss
          Kurds .... so different

          recourse recourse sort of from all different, these were the most adequate ... mowed down by the Communists !!! wassat wassat laughing laughing
      3. Yuyuka
        Yuyuka 22 January 2018 23: 02
        +8
        Quote: Doliva63
        In any case, it is precisely these Kurds who deserve their own.


        it’s also a lesson for those who rush to and fro - both ours and yours ... an interesting alignment - “Russia betrayed ...” Or maybe it’s different - the Kurds betrayed, having crossed over to the “defenders” of democracy? Erdogan understood that Russia should be consulted and its interests taken into account, and the Kurds proudly said “no,” they do not care about Russia's interests. This is their choice, so why should we take into account their interests? Time will pass, it will be possible to talk ... but for now the guns are talking, and it's good that they are not ours.
  2. Anyone
    Anyone 22 January 2018 16: 05
    +8
    Kurdish self-defense forces in Afrin are doomed. Doomed from the very moment they linked their fate with the United States, and Turkey became their enemy ...

    This is the first sentence in the note. After the phrase "Turkey became their enemy," even did not even read further. Obviously, the author believes that the problems in the relationship between the Kurds and Ankara began just when the Kurds contacted the Yankees. In fact, about 20 million (or more) Kurds live in Turkey. They do not have their own training system in their own language, their party is harassed and arrested, their representatives are in prison, the so-called Turkish-Kurdish armed conflict. Not to mention 1984, when the Turks massacred tens of thousands of Kurds in Tunzel ...
    So, Turkey "did not suddenly become an enemy of the Kurds," as the author wrote, but always has been.
    1. Dart2027
      Dart2027 22 January 2018 19: 26
      +4
      Quote: Anyone
      Obviously, the author believes that the problems in the relations of the Kurds with Ankara began precisely when the Kurds contacted the Yankees.

      Actually, this is not about Kurds in general, but about a very specific group.
      1. Anyone
        Anyone 22 January 2018 19: 36
        0
        You are right, Rojava and Afrin are not all Kurds. But they and their closest ancestors completely share the fate of this people (ethnos) in the context of relations with Turkey.
        And their bet on the United States was quite obvious - there was no one else to bet on.
        1. Dart2027
          Dart2027 22 January 2018 21: 50
          +6
          Quote: Anyone
          But they and their closest ancestors completely share the fate of this people (ethnic group) in the context of relations with Turkey

          Being citizens of another state, they could have avoided this if they had not tried to step on the blisters of everyone around, and not just the Turks. For better or worse, Kurdistan is needed neither by Syria, nor Turkey, nor Iraq.
          Quote: Anyone
          And their bet on the United States was quite obvious - there was no one else to bet on.

          Betting on the USA means not betting on anyone. The fact that the states need ongoing bloody chaos in the Middle East has long been known to everyone, so relying on them was, well, very "smart."
    2. Hottabych
      Hottabych 22 January 2018 22: 23
      +4
      Quote: Anyone
      So, Turkey "did not suddenly become an enemy of the Kurds," as the author wrote, but always has been.

      Have you read up to the end of the paragraph? Read:
      Doomed from the very moment they linked their fate with the United States, and Turkey became their enemy. After that, their defeat was only a matter of time and opportunity, which Ankara would choose to destroy the enclave his old enemy ...

      And she became their enemy, the author probably meant
      States smile
      1. Anyone
        Anyone 23 January 2018 11: 30
        0
        That is, now, according to VO, the "old enemy of Turkey" is the United States, and the Kurds, respectively, are the "new enemy of Turkey", and we, in general, are the "old friend of Turkey". How lovely! )))
  3. Lexus
    Lexus 22 January 2018 16: 10
    12
    The Kurds set the wrong horse. They will pay for it with their lives. It’s sad.
  4. vlad007
    vlad007 22 January 2018 16: 14
    +5
    Erdogan has no choice - through Syrian Kurds, including in the AFRICAN AFRICA, weapons (from the USA) go to Turkish Kurds - to the south of Turkey, where there is a civil war between the Turkish government and Turkish Kurds. I won’t be surprised if Turkish troops occupy the border zone, the question is briefly or forever, like northern Cyprus.
    1. mkop
      mkop 22 January 2018 16: 28
      +2
      The Turks will not leave, otherwise it is just a waste of time, money and people. Or they will just have to destroy all living things there.
  5. owl
    owl 22 January 2018 16: 35
    +3
    I think that Turkish Kurds will come to the aid of the Syrian Kurds and the hotbed of war flames up in Turkey ...
  6. BAI
    BAI 22 January 2018 16: 46
    +2
    At one time, Daria Aslamova from the Communist Party widely and fully covered the problem of the Kurds. And not sitting on the couch, but directly from all Kurdistan - Turkish, Syrian, Iraqi, including from the trenches. Entirely and completely agree with her that Russia is better to have Kurds in allies than in enemies. Moreover, there is a diplomatic representation of Kurds in Russia.
    1. ADmA_RUS
      ADmA_RUS 22 January 2018 17: 29
      11
      What is better for?
      Do Kurds have a state? No.
      Do Kurds have a long history of existence as a single nation? No.
      Do Kurds from different countries have a single vision of the future and common goals and objectives? No.
      Kurds are the subject of a big game. You can play with them and them, but not be friends.
    2. Foxmara
      Foxmara 22 January 2018 19: 17
      +7
      Quote: BAI
      It is better for Russia to have Kurds in allies than in enemies.

      Who would argue. But the stubbornness and inflexibility of the latter puts them in a sad situation. Betting on the Yankees, who seem to be the strongest on the planet, turned out to be a mistake, and fatal. And they could ask how the Yankees defend the allies (Israel does not count), there is a special situation, how many times they threw “their own” .. Russia cannot and will not help the Yankees allies. Obviously, the Kurds were offered to change sides, but they preferred to "stand their ground." The people are really sorry. But we must take into account the realities.
      1. Antianglosax
        Antianglosax 22 January 2018 20: 11
        +1
        Quote: Foxmara
        But the stubbornness and inflexibility of the latter puts them in a sad situation.

        However, it is very politically correct! And true to all 100.
        Therefore, they don’t have a state either - refusing compromises will not lead to good. Proud and very very stupid Kurds ...
    3. Nikolai Grek
      Nikolai Grek 23 January 2018 01: 48
      +4
      Quote: BAI
      At one time, Daria Aslamova from the Communist Party widely and fully covered the problem of the Kurds. And not sitting on the couch, but directly from all Kurdistan - Turkish, Syrian, Iraqi, including from the trenches. Entirely and completely agree with her that Russia is better to have Kurds in allies than in enemies. Moreover, there is a diplomatic representation of Kurds in Russia.

      to remind you of the times of the Union, when Russia created a dozen states with its own hands, granted them territories and statehood, and as a result lost millions of square kilometers of territories and has spits in their direction ?? !!! fool fool fool meaning now Russia to fight for the independence of the Kurds ??? also taking into account the fact that they are non-negotiable and shorthand with the Americans !!! wassat wassat laughing laughing laughing
  7. Siberia 9444
    Siberia 9444 22 January 2018 16: 50
    +1
    In Syria, everything is just beginning to regret recourse
  8. Alsur
    Alsur 22 January 2018 17: 01
    +1
    And how do you like this article: https://topwar.ru/134325-verhushka-ypg-rossiya-pr
    edala-kurdov-v-afrine.html
    One site, opposite messages ..
    Is this the info war of the United States, blaming its headache on Russia, or is Russia really not keeping its word?
    1. Foxmara
      Foxmara 22 January 2018 19: 21
      +3
      Is it nothing that ISIS actually lost ground to the Kurds in the summer and they won part of Syria like the be? I can’t be the most cunning. Is Russia again to blame for everything? Who there complied and did not observe is another question.
    2. Nikolai Grek
      Nikolai Grek 23 January 2018 02: 00
      0
      Quote: ALSur
      And how do you like this article: https://topwar.ru/134325-verhushka-ypg-rossiya-pr
      edala-kurdov-v-afrine.html
      One site, opposite messages ..
      Is this the info war of the United States, blaming its headache on Russia, or is Russia really not keeping its word?

      recourse recourse Well, there the words of the Kurds are quoted in the article !!! wassat wassat laughing laughing laughing and then ... these are the problems of the Kurds that they imagined ... they were offered to restore the country normally with Assad .... they refused ... no one promised them that Russia would defend their interests to death .. moreover that they are the protege of americos !!! wassat wassat request request request
  9. Diviz
    Diviz 22 January 2018 17: 13
    +1
    Another tricky provocation. push Russia and Turkey into war.
    1. Ryazan87
      Ryazan87 22 January 2018 18: 32
      +5
      1. The Russian Federation will never dare in Syria to oppose the armed forces of either Turkey or the United States (or even Israel).
      2. Both Turkey, the United States, and Israel can, if something happens, openly (“on their behalf”, and not just supporting their “proxies”) destroy Assad forces, and the Russian Federation will not be able to prevent them from doing this.
      This is such a fact, and I hope that understanding why this is so will not be very difficult.
      1. Alsur
        Alsur 22 January 2018 19: 40
        +3
        You are wrong, Turkey and Israel, this state does not belong to. The United States certainly can, but not all. She also always needs a coalition, if you see.
  10. Mikhail Zubkov
    Mikhail Zubkov 22 January 2018 17: 43
    +1
    From which hem did this clever Podolyak get out? Or from which Sum? Cards absolutely from "the other world". Thoughts, too, if what is written can be considered thoughts. Provocation ukroamerskaya all this supposedly little article. The ukroavtor badly sets out some kind of terrible nonsense on the topic - the Americans rule in Syria, and the Turks and Russian fools, slightly powdering the tracks of NATO’s order for "more turbidity."
    1. Alexey RA
      Alexey RA 22 January 2018 19: 27
      +2
      "Russia has betrayed the Kurds! Russia must be the Kurds!"
      Sound familiar? wink
      1. Marat Sagidullin
        Marat Sagidullin 22 January 2018 22: 32
        +1
        I understand the hint))) wassat
  11. pastooh37
    pastooh37 22 January 2018 20: 36
    +1
    Something like this: "you do not want good for the bad, you get bad for the good" or a turn.
  12. Marat Sagidullin
    Marat Sagidullin 22 January 2018 22: 31
    +2
    Well, finally, at least someone explained what is happening !!!
  13. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
    Andrei from Chelyabinsk 22 January 2018 22: 33
    +4
    I don’t understand anything about the Kurdish issue, but the author’s presentation is very logical, political, and from this extremely similar to the truth
  14. flicker
    flicker 22 January 2018 22: 41
    +5
    It is interesting why the Sultan, who threw such a formidable “speech” at the address of the Amers, moved his troops to Afrin, and not to Manbij?
    Vague doubts torment me. Turkey’s military action has been agreed primarily with the United States, although a performance is being played out to the general public that Turkey acts with the consent of Russia and against the will of the United States. Well, they say, the Kurds - Russia threw you. Moreover, Erdogan is sleeping and sees himself in the role of Uncle Sam's beloved wife, jealous of Israel in this role. Now a wonderful opportunity to amer amer. If the Americans once again throw, again take a position close to Russia, realizing that Russia is interested in cooperating with Turkey. Once again show political flexibility, it is also a deflection.
    As for us, we are for negotiations, but if it does not reach the Turks and Kurds, then we can wait until they instruct each other - after that we will get more negotiable Turks and Kurds.
    1. Dart2027
      Dart2027 22 January 2018 22: 51
      +2
      Quote: flicker
      moved troops to Afrin, and not to Manbij

      Given that he is surrounded, such a choice of purpose is quite logical.
      Quote: flicker
      Erdogan sleeps and sees himself in the role of Uncle Sam's beloved wife

      Hardly. That is, he, of course, will seek to receive his benefits, including from the contradictions between the Russian Federation and the USA, but he will not trust them.
      1. flicker
        flicker 23 January 2018 01: 35
        +2
        I agree with the first one - a powerful argument (I do not think that it is the only one, but a significant one)
        "Get your own profit" - it is mandatory, "trust" will not be to anyone - because they themselves are ready to throw anyone. But here 3-4 years ago, when relations between the Turks and Amers were allied, the influence of Turkey (read: Erdogan) on BV was much more significant than now. Maybe I’m mistaken, of course, but the impression is that Erdogan really wants to return to the same influence that he had before, which was the result of rather close allied relations with the United States.
        1. Dart2027
          Dart2027 23 January 2018 20: 11
          0
          Quote: flicker
          Maybe I’m wrong, of course, but the impression that Erdogan really wants to return to the same influence

          Erdogan has personal experience of how the US is throwing its allies, I mean a recent coup attempt. Politics has always been a dirty business, but such lessons are usually not forgotten.
          Quote: flicker
          I do not think that the only one, but significant

          We don’t know all the factors, and we don’t know, this is true, but based on purely military logic - the encircled enemy must be crushed as quickly as possible until the situation has changed.
  15. lewerlin53rus
    lewerlin53rus 22 January 2018 23: 16
    0
    Russia betrayed the Kurds without dissuading its ally Turkey from attacking Afrin in Syria. This statement was made by the commander-in-chief of the Kurdish detachments of YPG fighters Sipan Hemo, whose words are given on the formation’s website.

    Interestingly, did Russia promise the Kurds something?
    1. Town Hall
      Town Hall 22 January 2018 23: 22
      +5
      Quote: lewerlin53rus
      Interestingly, did Russia promise the Kurds something?



      Russia promised Syria to defend its territorial integrity. Afrins are part of Syria.
    2. Nikolai Grek
      Nikolai Grek 23 January 2018 02: 07
      0
      Quote: lewerlin53rus
      Interestingly, did Russia promise the Kurds something?

      daaaaaa ... if they join Assad and help restore Syria, then everything will be fine with them !!!!! request request request
  16. Normal ok
    Normal ok 23 January 2018 01: 23
    0
    Kurdish self-defense forces in Afrin are doomed. Doomed from the moment they linked their fate with the United States, and Turkey became their enemy

    How many predictions did Podolyaka come true? 0? -1? But he stubbornly continues to vang. It will be interesting to read what he will write if the Kurds stand. What if he also made friends with Moscow? He will run ahead of the engine and assure that he wholeheartedly for the Kurds and always prophesied victory for them.
  17. Buka001
    Buka001 23 January 2018 08: 37
    +1
    [quote = Anyone] [quote] Kurdish self-defense forces in Afrin are doomed. Doomed from the very moment they linked their fate with the United States, and Turkey became their enemy ... [/ quote]
    This is the first sentence in the note. After the phrase "Turkey became their enemy," even did not even read further. Obviously, the author believes that the problems in the relationship between the Kurds and Ankara began just when the Kurds contacted the Yankees. In fact, about 20 million (or more) Kurds live in Turkey. They don’t have their own language learning system,
    Do you suggest introducing training in Kurdish ???
    It can immediately give the Tatars training in their own language in Russia.
    And the Turks of Iran have freedom of speech. Let's all ... about it because of a bunch of Yankee Kurds.
  18. Ivanov IV
    Ivanov IV 23 January 2018 09: 44
    0
    The Kurds in this confusion felt that they had seized God by the beard. But greed must be punished. Idlib was and will remain Syrian. Everything will come to the point that Idlib will be controlled by the SAA and the Russians. And the faster the Kurds realize this, the fewer victims will be.
  19. Valery Saitov
    Valery Saitov 24 January 2018 07: 18
    0
    Israel wanted to create its own state and created through persuasion, etc. leaders of world powers, including the USSR, and the Kurds are always trying to grab the most tidbits of territories where there is a lot of oil and gas by terror. That's just who will allow them. They would ask themselves a bare desert, you look and give them to them a long time ago.
  20. Awaz
    Awaz 26 January 2018 07: 59
    0
    oh guys, something I began to doubt the true goals of the Turkish attack. No matter how Russia screwed up here, trying to get into history on someone else's hump. I wish I were mistaken, but the Turks are somehow fighting without fanaticism with the Kurds. And if the Kurds manage to stabilize the situation, Russia will suffer serious reputation losses. And if the United States also gets in there as peacekeepers, it will be complete.
  21. Iskander. Richard
    Iskander. Richard 26 January 2018 10: 00
    0
    Bury the Kurds early. Turks will pay dearly for aggression.