Military Review

“Idlib Gadyushnik” and Afrin as a cruel lesson for Moscow and Damascus. Defense secrets of YPG and Erdogan’s vile plan

102



After completing lengthy preparations for a general attack on the strategically important territory in Aleppo province - the Kurdish canton of Afrin, the Turkish military leadership, together with the FSA, resorted to the favorite practice of genocide of the Kurdish population living in this small "enclave" of Rojava. In the evening of January 20, after several days of artillery preparation at the numerous strongholds of the Kurds in the border areas of the canton, tactical aviation The Turkish Air Force carried out a massive missile and air strike not only on dozens of YPG / YPJ strongholds located in the highlands of the canton, but also on residential areas of the densely populated city of Afrin, which in the very first hours led to 6 civilian casualties and 3 in circles YPG / YPJ fighters. As we noted earlier, this canton is considered by Ankara as a priority goal for only two reasons - due to the presence of Afrin in the tactical “cauldron”, which excludes the possibility of receiving military-technical support from the Kurdish YPG units in Manbij, as well as in connection with the acute the need to unite the "moderate" rebels in the Azaz region into a united front with the "Syrian Free Army" militants controlling the territories in Idlib governorate. The only obstacle for Turkey in the process of this unification is Afrin.

Official Moscow took a neutral position, which was expressed in a statement by Franz Klintsevich, the first deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security, who confirmed only the diplomatic vector of support for Damascus from the Russian Federation in terms of helping to prepare for Ankara to terminate Operation Olive Branch within UN. Also, the senator recalled that the Syrian-Turkish treaties absolutely do not provide for military support for Syria in a possible conflict with the Turkish army. What did we get in the end? Against the background of the threat of a collision with many times more powerful Turkish Armed Forces, without guarantees from our side, all the ominous warnings of the Deputy Foreign Minister of Syria, Feil Mikdad, about “intercepting Turkish fighters invading ATS airspace” turned out to be a natural bluff.



All this is clearly seen in a single photo (see above) posted on the Twitter page of the Conflict News community after the sunset of January 20 by an eyewitness from Afrin. It captures the western section of the airspace above Afrin Canton (in the direction of Hatay’s silt), in which at least 8 Turkish F-16C / D Block 50 / 50 + Turkish multipurpose fighters are patrolling. As can be seen from the presence of the inversion tracks, Turkish pilots circled over the western part of Afrin on altitudes from 6,5 to 8 km, without any fear of the work of the Buk-M2E and C-200А / В Syrian anti-aircraft missile systems, which could “ get such high-altitude targets even from the northern suburbs of Aleppo. Of course, the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces are not fools either, which is why a multifrequency multielement EW Koral multi-element complex (in Apkinar ila Hatay), which could partially disrupt the lighting process, was partially exposed to the probable flying direction of the Syrian anti-aircraft missiles 9М317 and 5Н62, which could partially disrupt the lighting process Koral »Semi-active radar seeker; but, unfortunately, not a single attempt to intercept followed. The location of the EPR Korral complex one day before the massive missile and air strike from the Turkish Air Force indicated the YPG and CAA to the most probable plane-and missile-hazard direction. At the same time, the difficult situation obviously forced Damascus to take a waiting position.

Also obvious is the fact that the complete inaction of the Syrian medium-range and long-range air defenses allowed Turkish fighters to operate at high altitudes without having to go into low-altitude mode, where they could be shot down by MANPADS at the disposal of the Kurdish Afghans.

The traditional obstinacy of the command of the Kurdish YPG troops also played a prominent role in the unfavorable development of events on the lands of the canton of Afrin. For example, according to information from the official member of the Executive Committee of the House of Democratic Society (“Movement of a Democratic Society”) Aldar Khalil, from the Russian and Syrian sides last week there was a proposal to include Kurdish troops in the Syrian Arab Army, but the YPG completely ignored it even against the background official Washington’s refusal to support Afrina. Recall that last week the representative of the headquarters of the operation “Inherent Resolve” in Iraq and Syria, Colonel of the American Army Ryan Dillon said that the military operation against the Kurds in the canton Afrin declared by the command of the Turkish Armed Forces of Turkey was not in the zone of responsibility of the coalition. In simpler language, the States simply abstracted from this conflict.

On the evening of January 21, after a long-term artillery preparation using 227-mm MLRS multiple launch rocket systems, Firtina self-propelled guns and missile and bomb strikes of F-16C / D fighters, the Turkish General Staff announced the start of the second phase of the operation, providing for a ground offensive throw using armored vehicles and the involvement of militants from the "Free Syrian Army". By noon, information was received about the capture of the small settlement of Shankal, located just 1 km from the Syrian-Turkish border by the pro-Turkish FSA formations (units of the Special Forces of the Turkish Armed Forces participated in the operation). Imagine only 1 captured village, given that on the side of the Turkish Armed Forces and the FSA groups there is almost a three-fold numerical superiority (34-35 thousand people against 10-12 thousand for the Kurds), multiple superiority in the number of armored vehicles and complete dominance in the technological aspect, including tactical means of territorial optical aerial reconnaissance, AWACS aircraft Boeing 737 AEW & C "Peace Eagle" (capable of conducting passive electronic reconnaissance), as well as network-centric communications and tactical information exchange.


Canton Afrin Relief


Here it’s all a matter of the tactics of building up fortified Kurdish YPG / YPJ detachments, elaborated to the smallest detail, the presence of an impressive number of Russian and western anti-tank missile systems, as well as thanks to playing into the hands of the difficult and elevated terrain in western and northern Afrin, full of hills, plateaus and elevations, which makes the offensive capabilities of the Turkish armed forces and the FSA detachments, even on local operational lines, ten times harder. By the evening, January 21, on the border with Hatay’s silt, pro-Turkish militants captured more 5 settlements - Adah Manli, Ali Bakki and Balal Kai, Bali Kai and Courney (they were captured by the YNG 3 fighter). In fact, this is all the achievements of Ankara in the ground phase of the offensive operation in the first 16-20 hours. At the same time, the Turkish army and FSA infantry and armored formations advanced no more than 3 - 5 km inland into the canton of Afrin.

Based on this, it can be concluded that in the course of further advancement, Turkish forces will face increasing resistance from Kurdish people's self-defense units, which have a developed infrastructure of strong points in the elevated terrain in northern Afrin, and therefore even without the support from Syria, the canton will be able to hold out from 5 days to one and a half - two weeks (and this is without support, which is being transferred to Afrin through the territory controlled by the Syrian army). As for the Turkish participating in the offensive tanks, then they are vulnerable to most anti-tank weapons armed with the Athenian YPG / YPJ. For example, the obsolete Leopard-2A4 MBT penetrates without difficulty into the upper frontal part of the hull (VLD), as well as the side armor plates of the hull and turret available to the Kurds at the Konkurs / -M complexes. If the Afrikaans YPG / YPJ have more advanced Kornet-E or TOW-2B complexes, where the main cumulative charges of the 9M133-1 and BGM-71F ATGMs have an armor penetration of 900 and 1200 mm, respectively, the Leopard-2A4 can be destroyed in the frontal armor plate of the tower. More “ancient” M60A1 / 3 can be hit by complexes 9K111 “Bassoon” and 9K115M “Metis” in absolutely any projection. The Turkish army also has the M60T Mk2 Sabra modifications modernized with the help of the Israeli IAI corporation MBT Patton.

The number of serviceable tanks of this modification in the NE of Turkey is close to 150-160 units. Their distinctive feature is the equipment of passive modular protection on the frontal armor plates of the turret and the sides of the turret, as well as the installation of dynamic protection modules on the mask of the MG120 XNUM-mm cannon (a constructive analogue is installed on the Israeli Merkava Mk253.). Indicators of the equivalent resistance of frontal armor plates of the M3T turret increased in comparison with M60A60 by about 1-1,8 times (from 2 to 260-470 mm), thanks to which the front of the tower is now perfectly protected from Fagot, the first modifications of the Metis. Even more protected is a mask of guns covered with elements of dynamic protection, the equivalent of which has increased from 520 to 354 - 600 mm, single-piece cumulative ATGM of type 650М9 "Competition" and 113М9 "Metis" are not able to penetrate it from the first time, while 115MXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXmXxXX M ”and 9М113-9“ Metis-M ”“ burns through ”it with particular ease. It is worth noting that the skill of the Kurdish anti-tankists was confirmed by the late evening of 115 in January, when the military officers from the canton reported on 2 disabled Turkish tanks involved in the offensive on several operational areas.

It is very likely that the Turkish army and the “moderate opposition” formations supported by it are completely bogged down in border battles with Kurdish self-defense units, and it would be extremely good if the offensive of the Turkish armed forces eventually drowned out due to the arrival of new armed defenders from various regions of the Syrian Arab Republic in Afrin, including the SDF-controlled Kamyshly and other cities of Rojava. Do not forget that Afrin, due to the impossibility of interaction with the cantons of Syrian Kurdistan controlled by Washington, can be maintained only thanks to the military-political will of Moscow and Damascus, and therefore it is these “players” who will be able to solve in their favor the situation with tricky tactical tricks supported Turkey FSA, "Dzhebhat an Nusra" and the IG.

In fact, the preservation of Afrin will allow the Syrian Arab Army to keep the pro-Turkish militants, rebels and terrorists of the IG and al-Qaida in Idlib in the “hedgehog”, driving a tactical “wedge” right along the line of the Kurdish canton. In this case, the perfectly armed detachments of YPG and YPJ will turn into a powerful barrier preventing the unification of the remnants of the idlib “Gadyushnik” with rebels from Azaz to the powerful “pale green” front of Erdogan. After all, the latter is able to translate the “game” into a completely unpredictable course, which is fundamentally different from that discussed during the recent visit of the head of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces Hulusi Akar and the director of the national intelligence organization Hakan Fidan for a meeting with the First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov. We know the price according to Erdogan and other high-ranking officials of Turkey firsthand.

Information sources:
https://vesti-ukr.com/mir/274130-turetskoe-vtorzhenie-v-siriju-nachalos-aviaudarami
https://ria.ru/syria/20180121/1513019210.html
https://twitter.com/Baco_UK/status/955153206333591552
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102 comments
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  1. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 22 January 2018 06: 55
    16
    We know firsthand the value of Erdogan and other Turkish dignitaries.
    and is it worth it to be friends with such vague boys?
    1. Chertt
      Chertt 22 January 2018 07: 31
      28
      a massive missile and air strike not only on dozens of YPG / YPJ strong points located in the highlands of the canton, but also on residential areas of the densely populated city of Afrin, which in the very first hours led to 6 casualties among civilians and 3 in the circles of fighters
      9 people losses per hours of massive missile and air strike It's exactly how you need to miss goals to achieve an almost zero result.
      1. novel66
        novel66 22 January 2018 07: 47
        +4
        either the strike is not so massive, or the building is not so dense, or there is something wrong with the ammunition
        1. Spez
          Spez 22 January 2018 07: 59
          30
          There is another option. Someone, to put it mildly, is telling a lie.
        2. Chertt
          Chertt 22 January 2018 07: 59
          +6
          Quote: novel xnumx
          either the strike is not so massive, or the building is not so dense, or there is something wrong with the ammunition

          Direct report of American Special Services bully
          1. Alena Frolovna
            Alena Frolovna 22 January 2018 11: 57
            +7
            There is another option. Someone, to put it mildly, is telling a lie.


            And when did the Turks tell the truth? Moreover, they themselves make hara-kiri by their current actions.
            Our elders said that Turkey will not be in the future. Everything is slowly moving towards this last day: they cannot reconcile themselves to the fact that the Turks are “nothing” in world politics, but they want to enjoy a pie. So far, no one has hit their "playful little hands" with force, so they are in a hurry to grab as much as their little hand is enough.

            But the author’s headline came up with, at least stand, at least fall. “A lesson, and even a cruel one, for Moscow and Damascus”?!. Hmm ... Analysts divorced.
            1. Chertt
              Chertt 22 January 2018 12: 04
              +8
              Quote: Alena Frolovna
              Our elders said that Turkey will not be in the future.

              The elders, of course, are serious analysts, you can’t argue. But here you are in a hurry with Harakiri. The cockroaches that came to power in Erdogan’s head will cause Turkey a lot of trouble, but for the country as a whole, this is not fatal
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Nikolay Fedorov
        Nikolay Fedorov 23 January 2018 12: 46
        +1
        Quote: Chertt
        a massive missile and air strike not only on dozens of YPG / YPJ strong points located in the highlands of the canton, but also on residential areas of the densely populated city of Afrin, which in the very first hours led to 6 casualties among civilians and 3 in the circles of fighters
        9 people losses per hours of massive missile and air strike It's exactly how you need to miss goals to achieve an almost zero result.

        That means no massed for many hours there was no air strike. The competence of a journalist and, accordingly, the veracity and accuracy of the material presented can be judged by the term "missile-air strike." It's like talking about cannon-tank shooting. Perhaps it would be more correct to say "missile-bomb strike." But this is so, by the way ... The bottom line is different. Such a number of victims is more likely with a single salvo by nurses on one plane. Remember, on June 2, 2014, an air strike on the Lugansk administration was carried out? Eleven people were killed, twenty-eight wounded.
        It seems that in this airstrike the goal was not to achieve a military result, but a video picture of how Turkish planes attack the Kurds. Those. there is a lot of noise, and the armed Kurds trained by the Americans are safe. Civilians do not count, do people in the West care about casualties among the civilian population? Probably, the Turks so far do not want to insolently quarrel with the Americans, and they forbid much to touch their fighters, they invested so much money in them. I see no other explanation.
    2. Same lech
      Same lech 22 January 2018 07: 57
      10
      and is it worth it to be friends with such vague boys?

      smile After a good whipping is ...
      in this case, we should not get into someone else’s fight ... let the boys-Turks fight with the Kurds-boys ... for them it’s national fun ... when they squeeze each other's sides and get tired let's say our word ...
      guys let's be friends... smile
      1. nikolai smolin
        nikolai smolin 22 January 2018 12: 49
        +2
        Turkey has always been a political prostitute
        1. Bosch
          Bosch 22 January 2018 14: 59
          +4
          And then who is Ukraine and Moldova?
    3. zyzx
      zyzx 22 January 2018 08: 15
      +4
      No, it’s not worth it, but we give them loans to nuclear plants, we pull the pipeline, so the main quarrel prohibits. And this is darkness.
      1. Hottabych
        Hottabych 22 January 2018 08: 46
        +3
        What does it mean yours is not worth it - is it to fight?
        1. zyzx
          zyzx 22 January 2018 08: 50
          +7
          This is the answer to the question, is it worth it to be friends with such? My answer is not worth it. Turks have been and have been an enemy for 500t already.
          1. igorka357
            igorka357 22 January 2018 09: 35
            16
            Moscow is not friends with anyone now, even the father is just a partner! And the Turks in economic terms, much more profitable than Syria, are directly multiple ... so it’s good that you are not sitting in the Kremlin!
            1. bald
              bald 22 January 2018 10: 35
              +4
              Good koment is right. The Turks alone will not cope, and the Kurds will not only be supplied with weapons, but also manpower, from the submission of the states, they will do everything in revenge to Erdogan. And there is our turn.
          2. ver_
            ver_ 6 September 2018 17: 38
            0
            ... Nehru Russia was baptized to baptize ...- christened with fire and a sword in the 15th century into Jewish Christianity - they split * paganism * and received Islam ..., Jews, Jews, only Jews were around ..
      2. NEOZ
        NEOZ 22 January 2018 09: 59
        11
        darkness? and what is the benefit to us from the Kurds?
        from the Russian and Syrian sides last week there was a proposal to include Kurdish troops in the Syrian Arab Army, but the YPG completely ignored it
        - What is it like?
        those. Kurds get IAF !!!!!!!
        and we sell gas to the Turks, we build roads with this money, we pay state employees, etc. ......
        what good to us from the Kurds?
        1. nikvic46
          nikvic46 22 January 2018 10: 48
          +2
          Yes, Russia is holding back the Turkish stream from non-interference. But no matter how it wouldn’t work out to us.
          Having lost Syria, Turkey will have Syrian oil.
          1. NEOZ
            NEOZ 22 January 2018 11: 27
            +3
            why the lack of support of the IAF Kurds will lead to the loss of Syria?
            military operations against the Syrian Kurds all over Turkey, how can contribute to the control of Syrian oil? rather, on the contrary, during a military operation, Syrian oil from Kurdistan is unlikely to go to Turkey.
          2. Valery Saitov
            Valery Saitov 23 January 2018 08: 37
            0
            Russia didn’t fight to give Syria oil to someone.
            1. karish
              karish 23 January 2018 08: 43
              0
              Quote: Valery Saitov
              Russia didn’t fight to give Syria oil to someone.

              Syria oil laughing
              In Syria, the oil cat wept
              Less than Yemen.
              33rd place, 0.1% of the world.
              https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9C%D0%B8%D1%80%
              D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B5_%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%B0%
              D1%81%D1%8B_%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%84%D1%82%D0%B8
              1. vlad007
                vlad007 25 January 2018 17: 10
                0
                Quote: karish
                In Syria, the oil cat wept
                Less than Yemen.

                Then what is the USA doing there? Are you fighting ISIS? Do not make me laugh!
            2. ver_
              ver_ 6 September 2018 17: 41
              0
              ..and how about Istanbul = Constantinople? ..
        2. vlad_vlad
          vlad_vlad 22 January 2018 13: 28
          +4
          Quote: NEOZ
          darkness? and what is the benefit to us from the Kurds?

          and we sell gas to the Turks, we build roads with this money, we pay state employees, etc. ......
          what good to us from the Kurds?


          those. again, the loot is everything. Is Russia friendly with some and does not help others purely out of monetary interest?
          but what about principles, bonds, friends we don’t give up, etc.? Are the amers blamed for this?
          1. NEOZ
            NEOZ 22 January 2018 14: 48
            +4
            friends? what friends?
            these are which:
            from the Russian and Syrian sides last week there was a proposal to include Kurdish troops in the Syrian Arab Army, but the YPG completely ignored it
            ??
            on what grounds are Kurds friends?
            ps
            there were two superpowers, one helped everyone free of charge .... the second was looking for benefits for itself and its people .... the result is known .......
        3. Normal ok
          Normal ok 22 January 2018 14: 02
          +2
          Quote: NEOZ
          what good to us from the Kurds?

          The point is that a strong Turkey will dictate its terms to Syria, and indeed to Moscow. At the same time, the Turks will throw Russia as soon as possible. Therefore, Russia needs a counterweight to the Turks. Kurds are perfect for this role. So did the USSR, for example.
          1. NEOZ
            NEOZ 22 January 2018 15: 00
            +2
            strong Turkey will dictate its terms to Syria and Moscow - I agree!
            Turks will throw Russia - I agree!
            Russia needs a counterweight - I agree!
            Kurds fit - I agree!
            but.........
            Kurds with the Americans .......... Kurds counterweight to the ATS ....... i.e. Kurds do not fit ......
            we return to the question "what good is the Kurds to us?"
            in my opinion, it is better to resolve issues with Turkoman (Turkish interests) than with Kurds (US interests)
        4. flicker
          flicker 22 January 2018 14: 08
          +4
          what good to us from the Kurds?

          The good thing is that they do not harm us. winked
          1. NEOZ
            NEOZ 22 January 2018 15: 19
            +3
            Do you think that harm from Turkey will be less painful?
            and then, the Russian Federation is an ally of the ATS? (obviously YES), but the Kurds refused to enter the SAR .... i.e. this is an illegal armed formation !!!! how will they not harm us if they are illegal armed groups? moreover, they are partnering with the Americans .......
            1. flicker
              flicker 22 January 2018 15: 30
              +2
              In the beginning, if you noticed, there was a question: what is the use of the Kurds?
              We expect only one thing from them so that they do not harm us (they harm it through an alliance with amers).
              1. NEOZ
                NEOZ 22 January 2018 15: 46
                +1
                of course!
                I asked this question in the context of the comment "why we don’t get stuck for the Kurds" !!!! wink
                1. flicker
                  flicker 22 January 2018 16: 24
                  +2
                  good the text went down, the question remained laughing
    4. Troll
      Troll 22 January 2018 12: 10
      +1
      It costs, but not to be friends, but to cooperate. There are no others.
    5. lukewarm
      lukewarm 22 January 2018 13: 29
      0
      Quote: Uncle Lee
      is it worth it to be friends with such nonspecific boys

      Friendship is not worth it, you need to sell the S-400. They don’t smell like money.
    6. alsfed
      alsfed 22 January 2018 14: 36
      0
      What are themselves and sledges.
    7. ando_bor
      ando_bor 22 January 2018 15: 29
      0
      Quote: Uncle Lee
      is it worth it to be friends with such nonspecific boys?

      It’s high time to understand that the world is not a gift, and it’s impossible to be friends with anyone in foreign policy, the Communists once worked on billions, they threw everything away.
      “But we need to use everyone, as far as possible, and negotiate with those who are trying to pursue an independent policy, Erdogan is trying,” he is being punished for this, there’s no point in talking to Europe, while such a situation is:
    8. iouris
      iouris 22 January 2018 15: 33
      0
      Quote: Uncle Lee
      is it worth it to be friends with such nonspecific boys?

      Politicians from the gateway cannot be allowed into foreign policy so that they do not "solve" "purely concrete" tasks. Foreign policy unfolds for decades and centuries. Come in fifty years later - we'll talk. We went to the polls and - relax for five years (Quote, source - Narusova).
    9. Megatron
      Megatron 22 January 2018 15: 42
      +1
      I’m more interested in another, where our S-300s delivered to Syria, they are constantly silent.
  2. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 22 January 2018 07: 12
    10
    Moscow took a fairly neutral position
    Obviously there are reasons for this. No wonder that before the start of the operation, the Chief of the General Staff of Turkey visited Moscow? If the media knew everything that was going on in high offices, then you can’t even count on victory.
    1. zyzx
      zyzx 22 January 2018 08: 17
      12
      It is good that Putin was not 41 and did not visit him in the spring, for example, Manstein.
      1. Loess
        Loess 22 January 2018 08: 59
        14
        It’s good that there wasn’t Yeltsin in 41
        1. NordUral
          NordUral 22 January 2018 09: 25
          11
          But what’s bad is that it’s not Stalin now. Although so far not everything has been lost for the country and people. The March elections are a chance for us, but it is entirely possible that the latter.
          1. Loess
            Loess 22 January 2018 09: 48
            13
            Where will you find Stalin in March? Strawberry oligarch on Stalin does not pull.
            1. Sergey Cojocari
              Sergey Cojocari 22 January 2018 10: 11
              +4
              This is not yet known, but the fact that the "galley slave" is not Stalin is visible to the naked eye.
              1. Loess
                Loess 22 January 2018 10: 16
                +9
                If I’m not mistaken, in the country whose flag you are writing, the president generally ignores everyone, so are you talking about our elections and our president?
                1. Sergey Cojocari
                  Sergey Cojocari 22 January 2018 10: 21
                  +6
                  It’s strange to hear from you like that. You do not hesitate to discuss on the site the top officials of other states and their policies. As for our president, he knew what he was going on, and does nothing intelligible to rectify the situation.
                  1. Loess
                    Loess 22 January 2018 10: 33
                    +7
                    Firstly, you can look at my profile and look for where I am discussing the first persons of other states (maybe you will find it, but so, offhand, I don’t remember this myself). Secondly: I don’t go to the "platforms" of other states to discuss how people live there and what kind of power they have there. That's when I appear on the "platforms" of the CIS countries or the European Union, and on any, except Russian, then your claim will sound reasonable.
                    1. Sergey Cojocari
                      Sergey Cojocari 22 January 2018 10: 42
                      +4
                      Get YOUR own site, and watch at the borders thereof, for the purity of skin color, flag and race of visitors. In the meantime, pass by at the end ...
                      1. Loess
                        Loess 22 January 2018 11: 00
                        +5
                        for the purity of skin color, flag and race of visitors.
                        No need to juggle.
                2. Normal ok
                  Normal ok 22 January 2018 13: 55
                  0
                  Quote: Less
                  If I’m not mistaken, in the country under the flag of which you are writing, the president generally ignores everyone.

                  So the president in Moldova, by law, i.e. according to the Constitution, is a purely nominal leader. Maybe one day they heard about such a form of governing the country - the "parliamentary republic." Googled the topic, there are many such countries in Europe.
                  1. Loess
                    Loess 22 January 2018 14: 24
                    +1
                    You may not believe me, but I know what a "parliamentary republic" is and I know what role the president of Moldova plays.
                  2. Captain Pushkin
                    Captain Pushkin 23 January 2018 21: 53
                    0
                    Quote: Normal ok
                    Maybe one day they heard about such a form of governing the country - the "parliamentary republic." Googled the topic, there are many such countries in Europe

                    And all these "parliamentary republics" are shaking permanently. Crawl from crisis to crisis.
              2. Bo Yari
                Bo Yari 22 January 2018 10: 38
                +5
                Moldavian strategist ... do not storm))
            2. woron333444
              woron333444 22 January 2018 11: 12
              +3
              They are already comparing mustache with Stalin, but try not to notice the currency stored in the west
        2. Bo Yari
          Bo Yari 22 January 2018 10: 39
          +2
          bad that was Stalin ..
      2. igorka357
        igorka357 22 January 2018 09: 31
        +9
        Not ... at 41 there were no visits, but at 39 there were a lot ... so before shoving the stinky liberal substance out of your mouth, shake it in your skull box and think! And one more thing ... at 45 we were in the enemy’s capital, we weren’t personally, I don’t know about your grandfather either, but I certainly didn’t, six years after the general visited the Wehrmacht in Moscow, and personally I.V. Stalin!
      3. alsfed
        alsfed 22 January 2018 14: 40
        +2
        Everyone imagines himself a strategist seeing a battle from the side.
    2. NordUral
      NordUral 22 January 2018 09: 27
      +6
      I suppose the same reasons. Some of them, because of which, passed Novorossia in the 14th.
  3. Loess
    Loess 22 January 2018 07: 59
    +3
    Something I did not make out the relationship between the title of the article and its content ...
  4. NordUral
    NordUral 22 January 2018 09: 23
    +3
    Kremlin dances with the Turks will end badly, both politically and economically. Russia needs a united Syria and the support of the Syrian Kurds can lead Assad to the realization of the need to create a federal, but united Syria. The alternative is endless war.
    1. alavrin
      alavrin 22 January 2018 09: 37
      10
      Dancing with the Kurds is even worse. Not only are they fully supported by the Americans, they are also demanding that Russia protect them in Afghanistan. For what reason, it is not clear. Let their owners resolve the situation that they themselves brewed (hello Clinton).
      The onset of the Turks is an unpleasant fact, but it is a fee for permission to build South Stream-2 and a number of other preferences. Politics, in a word.
    2. andrew42
      andrew42 22 January 2018 10: 49
      +6
      So the Kurds, or rather their leaders in the enclaves, including Afrin, - they themselves have chosen a "roof" in the face of the United States. Not Assad, not Moscow, namely the USA. it is obvious that Kurdish leaders are densely seated on American grandmothers, because they stubbornly stick to their independence under American patronage, not realizing that the Americans are leading them to a massacre against everyone and everything. In this scenario, Russia cannot help fools in any way. Until the Kurds understand that they are stupidly using them, until they cling to Assad, at least as a "companion in misfortune," until then, the Kurdish people will be scorched like firewood in this Middle East conflict, to the glory and wealth of the Western elites.
      1. Gogia
        Gogia 22 January 2018 12: 12
        +1
        I completely agree. One way out is to write a letter to Assad and swear on eternal friendship and the desire to be in Syria
    3. flicker
      flicker 22 January 2018 14: 24
      +2
      Russia needs a united Syria

      First of all, the Syrians themselves need it. Secondly, united Syria is a kind of indulgence in favor of the unity of other BV states.
      But we need to be quiet, in the sense of not fighting.
    4. saigon
      saigon 22 January 2018 15: 57
      +2
      Dear Kurds, they simply spat on Russia, let alone Syria, did the Kurds put on dances and their support, and whom should the Russian body intervene for them?
      Concern expressed, oh how not well said and waking up.
      The Kurds have never been faithful even against the background of other eastern mysterious peoples, and now they will be abandoned, an example for others.
  5. The comment was deleted.
    1. Bo Yari
      Bo Yari 22 January 2018 10: 34
      +2
      there will be no flows, all this is a hoax
  6. Santor
    Santor 22 January 2018 10: 18
    24
    This is a fucking zvizdets and not an analyst ... having no initial data to build such assumptions and still shit the article with all sorts of tsifiri for credibility - Damantsev's style. The problem of the Kurds must be solved and let the Turks solve it and not us .. We will stand aside. Kurds are even worse than Jews, if anyone does not know, by the way, I’m not an anti-Semite. I'm talking about the fact that they hollow one way until they hollow ...

    Their idea is to create a single state that will include a third of Turkey, a third of Syria, almost half of Iraq, part of Iran and part of Armenia .... The project has been supervised for many years by the United States. They are looking at the US mouth. Russia is one of the last who needs to create a young predator-state of Kurdistan on this territory with far-reaching appetites.

    So let the NATO members of the United States and Turkey scoop up among themselves, but we will stand for a smoke aside. And we will observe how the remaining members of NATO will come out of this situation.

    And screaming - all the "lost Russia lost" leave Strelkova - ku him this mantra with his friend El-Murid is not bad so it turns out.
    1. Gogia
      Gogia 22 January 2018 12: 15
      +2
      I also completely agree. If the Syrian Kurds moderate their appetite, they will gain autonomy and self-government in Syria, and most importantly, they can be a buffer between Turkey and Syria.
    2. flicker
      flicker 22 January 2018 15: 41
      +2
      Quote: Santor

      Their idea is to create a single state that will include a third of Turkey, a third of Syria, almost half of Iraq, part of Iran and part of Armenia .... The project has been supervised for many years by the United States.

      And why is the independent Kurdistan project overseen by the United States? Are they worried about the Kurds or want to start a war there, with all the states from which the Kurds will be taken away?
      Probably a war. Such a war will leave nothing for the Kurds. And the Kurds do not want such a war. In order to avoid war, the Kurds must be torn away from the alliance with the mattresses. Probably so.
  7. ver_
    ver_ 22 January 2018 10: 18
    +1
    Quote: Uncle Lee
    We know firsthand the value of Erdogan and other Turkish dignitaries.
    and is it worth it to be friends with such vague boys?

    ... you might think that we know our plans ..
  8. The comment was deleted.
  9. Dmitry Kuzhilney
    Dmitry Kuzhilney 22 January 2018 10: 32
    0
    The stream of consciousness caused by reading Twitter and ukroSMI. :-)
  10. dog breeder
    dog breeder 22 January 2018 10: 34
    +4
    It looks a little like analysis, more to order from star-striped. The Kurds had to think before, they probably suggested. But independence is closer to them.
  11. ramzes1776
    ramzes1776 22 January 2018 10: 46
    +2
    Actually, the KONKURS ATGM (9P148) consists of ATGMs for the FAGOT (9P135) and is located on the basis of the BRDM-2.
  12. Sergey Cojocari
    Sergey Cojocari 22 January 2018 11: 02
    0
    Loess,
    Didn't like the candelabra?
    1. Loess
      Loess 22 January 2018 11: 29
      0
      I am indifferent to labels.
  13. nikvic46
    nikvic46 22 January 2018 11: 03
    0
    The United States and Turkey are in the same military bloc. Erdogan paid a visit to the United States, and had a meeting with the president. Goal versus
    Assad they have one. Russia could submit a proposal to the UN for the establishment of the Kuda state. With the adoption of this proposal, Russia would establish its presence in the Middle East. It keeps the Turkish Stream from taking this step. But no one
    Doesn't know what the future holds for us.
  14. Anyone
    Anyone 22 January 2018 11: 07
    +1
    Quote: Santor
    This is a fucking zvizdets and not an analyst ... having no initial data to build such assumptions and still shit the article with all sorts of tsifiri for credibility - Damantsev's style.

    Quite even normal analytics based on data from open sources. If you can get involved in any information that is closed to the public on Syria, then indicate what the author is wrong about. If you can not and / or do not have such access, then do not la la.
    The problem of the Kurds must be solved and let the Turks solve it and not us .. We will stand aside. Kurds are even worse than Jews, if anyone does not know, by the way, I’m not an anti-Semite. I'm talking about the fact that they hollow one way until they hollow ...

    That is, you consider it normal to passively observe how the Turks and the "light green", with whom, for a minute, God already knows how many years Assad has been fighting, urinate the Kurds in Syria in the area where our military police a week ago (under friendly singing media) was involved in the creation of a zone of "de-escalation of the conflict"?
    Russia is one of the last who needs to create a young predator-state of Kurdistan on this territory with far-reaching appetites

    Yes, we have not supported the idea of ​​creating a Kurdish state so far. Our position on this issue was uncertain, but we were ready for the federalization of Syria and the creation of a Kurdish federation.
    P.S. The Turks put us before the fact. Nothing could be done here. Announce again that Erdogan "stabbed in the back"? )) It would already be some kind of kindergarten: quarreled - reconciled, quarreled - reconciled ...
    1. Captain Pushkin
      Captain Pushkin 23 January 2018 22: 10
      0
      Quote: Anyone
      The Turks put us before the fact. Nothing could be done here. Announce again that Erdogan "stabbed in the back"? )) It would already be some kind of kindergarten: quarreled - reconciled, quarreled - reconciled ..

      Everything is just like three pennies. The Kurds pulled with an answer to ours, under whom they were, under Assad or under the United States. As soon as they gave an answer that it was not under Assad, for us all the sense of covering them was gone, because Russia for united Syria, and the Kurds for secession from Syria.
      If our military after that continued to remain in Afrin, it would turn out that we support the collapse of Syria.
  15. Gogia
    Gogia 22 January 2018 12: 05
    +2
    Syrian Kurds did stupidity, not wanting to negotiate with Assad. Now they will be crushed, and they will be forced to turn to him for help.
    1. Captain Pushkin
      Captain Pushkin 23 January 2018 22: 12
      0
      Quote: Gogia
      Gogia Yesterday, 12:05
      Syrian Kurds did stupidity, not wanting to negotiate with Assad. Now they will be crushed, and they will be forced to turn to him for help.

      And Assad is already helping the Kurds by letting Kurdish armed units and supplies pass through the controlled territory to Afrin.
  16. demo
    demo 22 January 2018 12: 12
    +4
    Kurds and bargaining cards, and a trump card at the same time.
    Until an optimal plan for further actions is formed in the heads of the Kurds under the influence of certain external factors (Turkish bombs and shells will quickly help ripen), neither Damascus nor Moscow will help or assist anyone.
    Kurds offered to join the ranks of the official Syrian armed forces? Offered.
    Have they refused? They refused.
    Did you bet on the USA? Yes.
    Turks were indignant at the realization of such a plan of their destruction, the Turkish worldview? Not that word.
    Therefore, we must wait until the Turks or knock out the spirit of the Kurds. And not only from Syria, but also from their own. local.
    Or the Turks will break their teeth in the Kurds. And then Turkey will sprinkle.
    That's the whole deal.
    In the case when the Kurds will face total extermination, then they will remember whose subjects they are.
    In the meantime, the US proposal to create an independent Kurdistan turned their heads around.
    Amen. And the paragraph.
  17. sergevonsohrn
    sergevonsohrn 22 January 2018 13: 16
    0
    "friendship" with the Turks, of course, is necessary, but essentially without fanaticism .... and do not advertise it on "every pillar"! nevertheless, the country of NATO .... but with NATO it is known what a "friendship" is! to have such "friends" - and no enemies needed !!!
    1. Anyone
      Anyone 22 January 2018 14: 03
      0
      This is a more multifaceted problem. Here my post was lost about the fact that Gazprom’s corporate interests, which were the Turks very timely (a few days before the start of the Turkish operation) were taken into account in issuing permission for the construction of the second branch of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, directly affected our action / inaction in Afghanistan.
  18. ANDRE - LATVIA
    ANDRE - LATVIA 22 January 2018 13: 23
    +5
    So far, everything is excellent for Russia and Syria. The Afro-Gypsies were invited one day before the Turks to go under Assad’s jurisdiction, recognize his authority and deploy Syrian government troops to their territory. At the same time, Russia guaranteed that it would stop Ankara. But the Kurdish refused, deciding to leave their boss ov. And, since you do not recognize the power of the ATS, then under the asphalt (or there under the dunes). It will be much easier to deal with pro-Turkish forces later, the legitimacy is not the same as that of the local tribes. And with Turkey, if it succeeds in pushing it specifically with the United States (but for now it’s going to), it’s easier to come to an agreement than with the amers — they are generally not negotiable.
  19. Normal ok
    Normal ok 22 January 2018 13: 50
    0
    I already wrote in a neighboring branch that if the Olive Branch fails, the image of Erdogan will be shaken both within Turkey and the Middle East. It is very possible that all players in the region will be satisfied with the weakening of Erdogan.
  20. aleks700
    aleks700 22 January 2018 14: 23
    +1
    Anti Asad Kurds are slaughtered with the Turks and the SSA. What is the lesson for Moscow and Damascus? Let them kill each other.
  21. Novoross
    Novoross 22 January 2018 14: 28
    +1
    Very bad analyst. I did not take into account the arrival of the Turkish military command in Moscow right before the start of the operation. I did not take into account the construction of a gas pipeline, a nuclear power plant, and the export of fruits and vegetables to the Russian Federation. Russian assistance in dispersing a military coup. Plus, the ambassador and the pilots. Plus the supply of complexes C400. This entire circus is played out for only one purpose, to force the Kurds to go under the jurisdiction of official Damascus and a little pat the Turks and their gang group. Here only civilians are held hostage. Erdogan is a chain dog of the Russian president, a good trained dog, who was given the command voice and face. Moreover, the order was not to bomb the city and the population should not be touched if possible. Hence such losses among the peacekeeper. The Kurds were asked to forget about Rojava for good, they were asked several times. Do not understand, immediately to the head. The Syrian flag is hung up in Afghanistan, the state authorities of the Assad regime begin to work, and it all ends. One call and all. And as for the operation itself, the terrain, combat experience, modern weapons and the ability to transfer reserves through the territory controlled by the government will allow the Kurds to drink blood from the Turks for a very long time. And the author of this opus forgot about one goal. This is the collapse of the SDF. It turned out even very quickly. Arabs betrayed the Kurds. What gives the prerequisites to throw the Kurds out of both Raqqa and Der Az-Zor
  22. pytar
    pytar 22 January 2018 15: 09
    +1
    Very interesting article! Thanks to the author! good
  23. Disorder
    Disorder 22 January 2018 15: 23
    0
    “Idlib Gadyushnik” and Afrin as a cruel lesson for Moscow and Damascus. Defense secrets of YPG and Erdogan’s vile plan

    This is a lesson for the Kurds. Armed and directed by the United States, nobody needs them in the region.
  24. Conserp
    Conserp 22 January 2018 15: 36
    0
    Zhenya Damantsev once again wrote fanfiction instead of military analytics.
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  27. Mikhail Anokhin
    Mikhail Anokhin 22 January 2018 16: 40
    0
    So these are Turks!
    What is incomprehensible and obscure here?
    He has always been a Turk!
    Only trusts the words of the Turk!
  28. Tests
    Tests 22 January 2018 17: 43
    +1
    Novoross, I want to add to your comment. During the operation "Olive Branch", and maybe a little later, the question will arise about replenishing the ammunition of Kurdish units. The article says that the Kurds have ATGMs of ours, some will be shot - we will still sell them. By that time, their leadership, you see, something in the heads of the bright will stir. Or part of the leadership will change ... Civilians will need help. Across Syria, our military seems to have done no less than a “Caliber" and VKS strikes with a humanitarian aid ... So you are right, a very poor analyst.
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    1. Fulcrumxnumx
      22 January 2018 20: 27
      0
      Think before commenting anything! And be interested in the alignment of forces! African Kurds are in the minority, and God forbid you to feel what African people experience under the blows of "Firtin", "Steel Rain" and F-16C Block 50, and do not confuse the "African Enclave" with other territories of the Rozhava where they rule the USA. There Erdogan and nose is not sunning, except for today's frail shelling near El Kamyshly ..
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  32. Olezhek
    Olezhek 22 January 2018 20: 32
    0
    "We have neither constant enemies, nor constant friends, we have only constant interests ..."
    (c) Lord Palmerston.

    In this performance, the best place in the audience.
    And to whom, to whom, but not to the Kurds, to talk about betrayal.

    The Turks have always hurt the Kurds, but always used them.
    The Kurds, despite all the contradictions with the Turks, always worked with the Turks on order.
    At the beginning of the 20 century, during the genocide of the Christian peoples of Turkey (Armenians, Assyrians, Greeks), the Kurds, along with the Turks, took part in the massacre with pleasure. They did not hesitate to kill and rob even their half-brothers of the Yezidis, because they also did not profess Islam.

    In March 1918, the Kurdish tribal leader Ismail Agha Simko invited the Assyrian Patriarch Mar-Shimun Benyami of 21 to negotiations, who swore allegiance to Russia in 1915 and proved himself the most loyal and reliable ally.
    Simko’s lack of sincere intentions to enter into an alliance with the Assyrians quickly became apparent at the negotiating table. The Assyrian delegation decided to leave the negotiations, and at the moment when the Assyrians mounted their horses, the masked gunners who had previously sat on the roofs of the houses opened fire from machine guns and rifles in the back of the departing guests. Mar-Shimun Benjamin and some of the people accompanying him were killed. His body was completely repulsed by the Assyrians from the Kurds and buried in the land of Mar Shimun Benjamin in the Armenian village of Khosrobad in the courtyard of the Armenian Church of St. George. The burial was performed by Mar Elijah, Bishop of Alkosh. The Patriarch turned only 31 year.
    Simho was hunted down and killed in the 1922 year in Iran.

    Russia, counting on "alien" Kurds (Iranian. Iraqi, Syrian and away.) Is the same as relying on the Turks ... the result is already known ...

    https://vz.ru/news/2018/1/22/904660.html
  33. Olezhek
    Olezhek 22 January 2018 20: 33
    +1
    The Kurds of Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Transcaucasia (Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan) are all very different Kurds.
    In addition, inside all these Kurds there are their own, other Kurds (tribes, clans, clan alliances) who regularly, without interruption, without stopping, find out which of them is Kurdish.
    In Iraq, the Barzani and Talabani clans are considered the most influential, but the less influential Shoresh clan Haji created the Gorran party to which the remaining small clans joined and entered the battle with the leaders.
    Fighting with the Turks and ISIS, Barzani agreed with Erdogan, and carried out the transit of oil, guarding the caravans, adding his Kirkuk oil to the Igil oil. At the same time, Erdogan more than once introduced troops into Northern Kurdistan and bombed Kurdish villages.
    In Syria, the Kurds, opposing Assad for autonomy, simultaneously allied with him and with the amers in the fight against ISIS, while trying to attack the Assyrians of Syria in the Kamyshli and Khabur rivers in order to oust the Assyrians from their lands expanding the boundaries of autonomy, which still not.
    Barzani, being the permanent leader of Iraqi Kurds since the 1979 of the year and the president of Kurdistan since the 2005 of the year, has repeatedly stated that the biggest mistake of his life was to agree to this presidency, and he is looking for a moment when it will be possible to leave this post painlessly.
    It is impossible to negotiate such a salad with Olivier in the municipality, and even more so, promise him something.

    https://vz.ru/news/2018/1/22/904660.html
  34. Olezhek
    Olezhek 22 January 2018 20: 35
    +2
    Kurdish sources indicate that the Russian representatives gave them a simple fork of solutions - either they go under Assad and then Russia stops Erdogan, or Russia washes her hands. Apparently, the continuation of these negotiations (after negotiations with the Turks) created some hitch with the Turkish attack. In the end, the Kurds began to loop, dodging the option when Assad introduced parts of the SAA and the muhabarat into Afrin, after which Damascus officially refused PYD the opportunity to hide from the Turkish attack with the Syrian flag. The scheme with the good and bad cops did not work and the honored Kraken of the Middle East got down to business. Erdogan had previously committed himself to withdrawing troops from Afrin after the structures connected by the Kurdish Workers Party were defeated there. Erdogan also confirmed that Turkey does not lay claim to Syrian territories and adheres to the principle of the territorial integrity of Syria.
    © KK
  35. gerkost2012
    gerkost2012 22 January 2018 22: 23
    0
    The material is some kind of hash. There is a military-political analysis, and there is a military-technical analysis. Well, to hell with filling out a text about the situation in the region with tactical and technical data on the types of electronic warfare and other types of weapons?
    Everything that happens in Syria is reminiscent of extinguishing a fire with gasoline. Is it smoldering? So, you have to give a little splash about what the US is doing well. Apparently, in the near future a serious war will erupt in two focal places, in the Donbass and again in Syria. Washington’s calculation is simple, that Russia will not solve the two military tasks at the same time and at the same time, but will sacrifice something! Apparently, Washington is waiting for the surrender of the DLNR. After that, a loud noise begins in all the media and among those among pro-Western bloggers about Putin’s draining of the fraternal people of Donbass, etc., right to the elections! Therefore, perhaps soon "the storm will strike!" Last year, Baghdasarov et al more than once stated, and quite rightly, that it was impossible to leave the Ukrainian problem “for later”. Draws into a political swamp, which is what is beginning to happen.
    1. Paranoid50
      Paranoid50 23 January 2018 00: 36
      +1
      Quote: gerkost2012
      Well, to hell with filling out a text about the situation in the region with tactical and technical data on the types of electronic warfare and other types of weapons?

      This is the "trick" Damantsev. That's how we separate the "flies from cutlets." laughing
      Quote: gerkost2012
      what is happening in Syria resembles extinguishing a fire with gasoline. Is it smoldering? So, you have to give a little splash about what the US is doing well.

      Well, as it turned out, there is a fire brigade led by a Sultan-firearm major. These will not only be flooded with foam, but also concreted.
      Quote: gerkost2012
      Apparently, Washington is waiting for the surrender of the DLNR.

      Well, Washington, he is. You will laugh, but he is waiting for the delivery of EVERYTHING and quickly. Yes, who would give ...
  36. lieutenant colonel
    lieutenant colonel 23 January 2018 11: 31
    0
    "cruel lesson for Moscow"?
    Kurds flirted with the Americans. And before that, Russia quite clearly outlined its position, “now is not the time to declare autonomy. In principle, Russia is not against it, but a little later through negotiations.”
    But the Kurds wanted everything at once, and all at once, and even the cheese in the mousetrap is promised only by the United States. Well, if the Kurds are so political suckers, then where does Moscow and Damascus?
  37. Radikal
    Radikal 25 January 2018 00: 15
    +1
    We know firsthand the value of Erdogan and other Turkish dignitaries.
    Another "cry," mark my word! sad
  38. Bypassed
    Bypassed 26 January 2018 15: 43
    0
    In this derby, the Athenian Kurds put the wrong horse, but they are already starting to recall that there is even a government in Syria. Various tactical analyzes and schemes on the sites in plenty. The Turkish ruler said today that after the defeat of the terrorists in Afghanistan, the Turkish army will go further - to Manbij. Well, let's see how everything goes.