Military Review

State Department "brain rescues Russian oligarchs: they are the last hope of the United States

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Some Russian media and numerous Western politicians expect that US sanctions in February, aimed at forcing Russian oligarchs to overthrow the "Putin regime", will be a strong blow to Russian economic and political life.


State Department "brain rescues Russian oligarchs: they are the last hope of the United States


In my opinion, the situation should be assessed from the diametrically opposite position, since “anti-oligarchic measures” will most likely become the reason for intensifying the repatriation of private capital to Russia and in fact will ensure accelerated consolidation of the Russian elite. It is indicative that a similar position was voiced in the American media. William Courtney, a senior official at the legendary think tank of the RAND Corporation, desperately urges American politicians to think again and stop harming themselves through the imposition of sanctions aimed at the Russian business community. An old-school expert, one of those American analysts who played an important role in the US victory over the Soviet Union in the Cold War, clearly realizes that the actions of the American leadership harm American interests and the group that he calls "Russian civil society." RAND Corporation is an expert organization established to serve the analytical needs of the US Army, but its services were often sought after by other government agencies, including the CIA. A paradoxical situation is created: the analytical service of American spies publicly urges the country's leadership not to engage in sabotage, and the process reveals very interesting details of the expert view of Russian reality.

From an article published in The Hill’s specialized political publication, it can be concluded that RAND does not believe in the theory that oligarchs, frightened by sanctions, can bring about any political changes in Russia. Based on his work experience in Soviet and post-Soviet Russia, Mr. Courtney, who worked from 1972 to 1999 for a year at senior positions in the State Department and oversaw Russian and Ukrainian areas, patiently explains that 90 has long ended and that Russia no longer has Berezovsky, and there are no oligarchs with any significant political influence. The expert states that because of the actions of Vladimir Putin, all businessmen, regardless of the size of their fortune, are forced to "deal with the authorities", as well as "pay taxes and obtain licenses for the extraction of natural resources."

Moreover, from Courtney's point of view, Putin is engaged in forcing businesses to participate in important government programs or projects such as the Sochi Olympics. In general, they are drawing a picture in front of senators and congressmen in which the Russian state is engaged in systematic institutional violence against a business that was so influential in 90 that it could actually appoint a president (this is a separate mention in Courtney’s article). without any government consent, it can do nothing at all, and even has to finance "Putin's projects." In this paradigm, it turns out that the Russian business is a big collective victim of the Russian state, and the victim cannot be punished, and it is also immoral and by and large unpromising to force it to resist. According to the RAND Corporation, all "bad businessmen" have already been punished in 2014-2015, and this is logical, because from a American point of view, such a "crime" as the construction of a bridge to the Crimea cannot be left unpunished. But the rest of the Russian business should be cherished and cherished, rather than trying to whip it with sanctions.

Fortunately for us, William Courtney’s admonition is unlikely to be heeded by the US Treasury, it should make a list of Russian businessmen who will be subject to formal and informal sanctions by the States and which will block access to the dollar financial system.

The fact is that the current specificity of American political life makes it very difficult to make any meaningful decisions, and almost any strategic considerations are boldly brushed aside if they interfere with good public relations, which can be vividly reported on social networks and which will look good in the internal "news cycle" ". It is very difficult to believe that someone in the Trump administration or in the company of Steve Mnachin, the head of the US Treasury, really believes that sanctions against Russian business will lead to some positive changes in Russian political life for the United States. But it is precisely these kinds of sanctions that Congress and the Senate require from them, and in order to fight back the regular accusations of "playing for the Kremlin," the Trump administration will most likely go to the drafting of restrictive measures on the principle "the longer the list, the better." If, for the sake of good PR and the ability to tweet something like “a brilliant president introduced brilliant sanctions against bad Putin businessmen,” it will be necessary to rob including apolitical or even pro-Western Russian businessmen, then it will be done without the slightest regret in strict accordance with the well-known anecdote about the sheriff and the problems of the Indians.

In a sense, the damage from the not yet introduced sanctions against the apolitical (and in some places even the “liberal”) segment of the Russian business community has already been done, only American interests have suffered, not Russian interests. The very fact that significant amounts and assets can be frozen or expropriated for the sake of a cheap political show already discredits the US financial system in the eyes of not only Russian business, but also from the point of view of the elites of all countries that may be under American restrictions, but practice shows that no one is insured against American sanctions at all.

No matter what the outcome история with the "oligarch-sanctions", can not but rejoice the fact that the US political system has finally switched to show business and demonstrates total deafness and immunity to the boring expert calculations, even if they are behind the knowledge of those who could destroy the USSR. Experience and cold mind are not honored. The media are seriously discussing the possible nomination of TV host Oprah Winfrey as Trump's opponent in the next presidential election in 2020. America is tired of boring professional politicians, and the era of social networks requires new heroes and opinion leaders.

The logic of the show is incompatible with the logic of big politics. A solution that brings many likes and enthusiastic comments in social networks, and also looks good on TV screens, often turns out to be a terrible mistake in the long term, which is well illustrated by the example of how the Trump administration itself breaks the last tool of American influence on Russian society and economy . If this continues on, then the showmen from politics themselves will perform a significant part of the work of dismantling American hegemony, which cannot but please the whole free world. So let the show go on. The 2018 season of the year promises to be very interesting.
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Originator:
http://polit-mir.ru/mozg-gosdepa-spasaet-russkikh-oligarkhov-oni-poslednyaya-nadezhda-ssha-14209.html
35 comments
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  1. siberalt
    siberalt 20 January 2018 06: 14
    11
    What difference does it make to us where our crooks live? Their habitats do not depend on one place from where they steal. laughing
    1. 82т11
      82т11 20 January 2018 13: 48
      +2
      If they live in Russia, then they will spend money here. Again they will rob less brazenly.
      1. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 20 January 2018 14: 49
        +5
        Quote: 82т11
        If they live in Russia, then they will spend money here.

        Not to spend, but to invest))) In short, the money-makers who they earned from the collapse of Russian enterprises will now be spent on opening new enterprises, although they will also receive income, minus tax deductions. But jobs will appear and the GDP indicator will creep up. The cycle of babos in nature)))
        1. Infinity
          Infinity 20 January 2018 14: 51
          +2
          True, it’s better than giving money over a hill, even if it’s stolen. They will even return to the economy (and will be stolen again) wassat .
        2. Reptiloid
          Reptiloid 21 January 2018 05: 04
          +1
          Quote: Nyrobsky
          Quote: 82т11
          If they live in Russia, then they will spend money here.

          Not to spend, but to invest))) In short, the money-makers who they earned from the collapse of Russian enterprises will now be spent on opening new enterprises, although they will also receive income, minus tax deductions. But jobs will appear and the GDP indicator will creep up. The cycle of babos in nature)))

          Eeeeeee no friend. They came up with a way out ----- together with their families they change citizenship, they buy citizenship of other countries. RBC news, RIA Novosti, Zvezda and others ... They say, for the sake of traveling convenience. "But they will stay anyway. citizens of Russia. Such are their amazing statements.
          1. The comment was deleted.
          2. 82т11
            82т11 21 January 2018 21: 16
            +1
            If the Yankees decide to squeeze money, no citizenship will help the oligarchs.
        3. Komarinsky
          Komarinsky 31 January 2018 09: 32
          0
          Rolled out his lip
      2. lance
        lance 20 January 2018 19: 19
        0
        if they get kicked out of here, how can they rob here?
      3. Antianglosax
        Antianglosax 22 January 2018 09: 43
        0
        I sometimes think that it was Putin who tempted Trump to shame our thieves - and Trump, like a fine fellow, is in the eyes of amero-geeks, and we have clarity and certainty.
  2. Herculesic
    Herculesic 20 January 2018 07: 05
    +9
    We had to clearly determine which of our businessmen is really useful for the country, only help them! And for the rest there are wolf market laws - it didn’t come up, not fate!
    1. To be or not to be
      To be or not to be 20 January 2018 13: 40
      0
      From the memoirs of one of the ministers: “A. Livshits -“ The influence of the people whom you called oligarchs I felt on myself in the 96th year, after being appointed deputy prime minister and finance minister - I was invited ..., invited and everyone said. They were , I don’t remember, maybe eight or nine people, in one of the largest banks - everyone gathered. And one of them told me directly, he says: “we put Yeltsin, this is our country, and you will do what we tell you let's say. "I began to ask: what do you want, what do you want from me? They presented me with a list of requirements, including agreeing with them all decisions, including staff appointments in the ministry, without them, not a step and so on, and so on. Well I asked: "What will happen if I do not?" - “Then you will not work as a minister” ...
      Now is not the year 1996 .. and the yellow and red cards were repeatedly shown to the oligarchs .. And then the Yankees fell into a temporary funnel. Into the past ..
    2. 82т11
      82т11 20 January 2018 13: 51
      0
      And who will determine? Again you want to make a feeder for corrupt officials!
  3. plotnikov561956
    plotnikov561956 20 January 2018 07: 19
    12
    A thief should sit in jail...!!!
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 20 January 2018 07: 48
    +7
    William Courtney
    The expert voices practical thoughts, only who will listen to him. And the American “work” with Russian oligarchs will really only benefit our country. Money withdrawn abroad by them does not participate in the Russian economy, and if someone changes their minds and returns with money, then they will have to invest in our economy, which is already good.
    1. Alf
      Alf 20 January 2018 08: 53
      +6
      Quote: rotmistr60
      and if someone changes their minds

      And a lot of change of mind?
      Quote: rotmistr60
      then he will have to invest in our economy,

      Funny.
      1. rotmistr60
        rotmistr60 20 January 2018 10: 34
        +2
        And a lot of change of mind?
        I think to find such.
        Funny.
        And what's funny? If he is forced to return with money, then where else to invest?
  5. Cube123
    Cube123 20 January 2018 08: 16
    +7
    A big plus article. The first bells sounded in the film "The tail wags the dog."
    1. Normal ok
      Normal ok 20 January 2018 12: 39
      0
      Quote: Cube123
      The first bells sounded in the film "The tail wags the dog."

      I recommend (everyone) to watch the series "Brainless." About how the American political system works. You will be blown away.
  6. Cat Marquis
    Cat Marquis 20 January 2018 10: 04
    +4
    Only one thing is scary: all these "showmen" are from politics, completely divorced from reality and absolutely do not understand many things and have no fear and responsibility from their policies. Focused on their image and reveling in their populism, they can calmly "come to an agreement" before the third world out. For them, the loss of image and popularity is akin to the defeat of a nation in a war, and without hesitation they will begin to push the world toward a world military catastrophe for revenge. What is actually happening now ..
    1. Alf
      Alf 20 January 2018 10: 07
      +2
      Quote: Marquis Cat
      Only one thing is scary: all these "showmen" are from politics, completely divorced from reality and absolutely do not understand many things and have no fear and responsibility from their policies. Focused on their image and reveling in their populism, they can calmly "come to an agreement" before the third world out. For them, the loss of image and popularity is akin to the defeat of a nation in a war, and without hesitation they will begin to push the world toward a world military catastrophe for revenge. What is actually happening now ..

      Which led to 1MB, along with other factors.
      1. Cat Marquis
        Cat Marquis 20 January 2018 10: 10
        +4
        It’s like in the Russian proverb: “Word for word, with fist on the table, and then for the knife.”
  7. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov 20 January 2018 10: 11
    +3
    Dear author, to be honest, it’s completely violet to the consolidation of the Russian elite, because this is not the primary goal for a strong state. The primary consolidation of the people and the elite! There will not be this, there will be nothing good. So, lethargic elbow pushing.
    1. volodya
      volodya 20 January 2018 11: 40
      +4
      Quote: andrej-shironov
      it’s absolutely violent to me to consolidate the Russian elite,

      With such an elite, no enemies!
      1. andrej-shironov
        andrej-shironov 20 January 2018 17: 00
        +2
        There are not only these, but also Putin and Sechin and Shuvalov-Dvorkovichi etc.
  8. 82т11
    82т11 20 January 2018 13: 59
    +4
    So because oligarchs do not decide anything, they will impose sanctions and take away money. The worse for Russia the better.
    And since we do not have accounts and property abroad, we get comfortable watching the series: the rich also cry)
    1. serge siberian
      serge siberian 22 January 2018 18: 22
      0
      I’m sorry. And can I go to work? Otherwise, they ask for a meal, wife and daughter.
  9. Altona
    Altona 20 January 2018 14: 06
    +1
    Quote: siberalt
    What difference does it make to us where our crooks live? Their habitats do not depend on one place from where they steal.

    ----------------------------
    I don’t even care if the US Federal Reserve freezes a trillion of its wrappers from Russia. paper she and Africa paper. Well, assets will be arrested, thereby thereby undermining self-confidence and will certainly provoke an exchange crisis. And then the revision of the rules of the financial game. If our trillion dollars contribute to this, then that’s good.
  10. Tsoy
    Tsoy 20 January 2018 14: 21
    0
    If everything is so, then what is all fussing about? From shifting from pocket to pocket money will not be "clean." Friedman won first shouted that Alpha would not serve the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation. Maybe not so happy for them. Although honestly I do not care. And from the United States can be good. laughing
  11. akims
    akims 20 January 2018 14: 49
    +4
    America has long turned into a sort of corsair, which prowls around the world and is looking for wimps who can be boarded. And Russia is a kind of hefty galleon full of Native American values. The sweetest prize. Here are just guns to hell and the team is crazy, you can’t take without losses. And the captain is competent and experienced. But some of the officers are traitors. They can be bribed, scared ... In the meantime, smaller vessels are captured and drowned. Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria have almost taken, a galleon, a dog, supported by fire. This is bad luck. They took Ukraine, but the galleon managed to remove the main value and the captain, although he just had to be sent to Rhea! And most importantly, part of the team sat in the hold and does not give up. Meanwhile, the galleon is being repaired, re-equipped ... That's how it is somehow.
    1. Are
      Are 20 January 2018 16: 23
      +2
      .... there are people on the galleon - the time will come and the kingstones will open)))
    2. Suhow
      Suhow 22 January 2018 22: 45
      +1
      that captain must be judged under the keel ... as a traitor ... well, for leaving the ship in danger, failure to perform its duties leading to grave consequences. Sey captain (yan-ich) shame the council of captains and write his initials with a capital letter like- it’s not right ...
  12. Thomas the Unbelieving
    Thomas the Unbelieving 20 January 2018 18: 47
    +3
    The question is what assets are involved. If money is in the accounts or palaces, then to hell with them. And if the shares of our enterprises? To whom then to pay dividends? Can then we also nationalize these shares?
  13. Lexus
    Lexus 20 January 2018 23: 33
    +3
    The oligarchs will return the loot to Russia?
    They hate and despise its citizens?
    Wake up, you "masturbate"!
  14. 82т11
    82т11 21 January 2018 21: 17
    0
    Quote: Reptiloid
    Quote: Nyrobsky
    Quote: 82т11
    If they live in Russia, then they will spend money here.

    Not to spend, but to invest))) In short, the money-makers who they earned from the collapse of Russian enterprises will now be spent on opening new enterprises, although they will also receive income, minus tax deductions. But jobs will appear and the GDP indicator will creep up. The cycle of babos in nature)))

    Eeeeeee no friend. They came up with a way out ----- together with their families they change citizenship, they buy citizenship of other countries. RBC news, RIA Novosti, Zvezda and others ... They say, for the sake of traveling convenience. "But they will stay anyway. citizens of Russia. Such are their amazing statements.


    If the Yankees decide to squeeze money, no citizenship will help the oligarchs.
  15. serge siberian
    serge siberian 22 January 2018 18: 32
    0
    Putin to them since the spring of 2017. requests sends "Return the money good people." But they don’t believe him, they don’t return. Indeed, “money doesn’t smell”, and if so, then you should not be afraid of it.