Military Review

The cunning plan of the great-power Poland: get money from the EU and leave the EU

26
Poland feels great-power. There are even talks about the withdrawal of Poland from the European Union. Warsaw does not want to obey the rules of others, but wants to set its own. However, is there a special way for Poland? Will the current "great power" of its politicians lead into a financial and political impasse? After all, the European commissioners have already prepared an “atomic bomb” for Warsaw!




The crisis in relations between Poland and the European Union began at the end of 2017, when the European Commission gave a harsh response to Warsaw, which was persistently implementing the planned reforms of the judicial system. According to the European Commissioners, the reforms have threatened the very existence of the rule of law in Poland and can undermine the common values ​​of the European Union.

The situation is extremely acute, since neither side intends to make concessions. The introduction by Brussels of so-called disciplinary measures against Poland was a truly unprecedented act of punishing an entire state that is part of the European Union.

The punishment is based on the application of Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union (aka the Lisbon Treaty, full title: the Lisbon Treaty on Amendments to the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty establishing the European Community, 2007). As a result, Warsaw may lose its right to vote in the EU Council.

According to the December statement of the European Commission, the thirteen laws adopted by Warsaw in two years, allow the Polish state to significantly interfere in the practice of the judiciary, thereby undermining the values ​​and foundations of the EU.

Warsaw in its sharp manner responded to the statement of Brussels. The decision of the European Commission was condemned by the Poles as “politically motivated”. According to Warsaw politicians, the planned reforms are carried out in the framework of the fight against corruption and management inefficiency. The President also made a speech. Andrzej Duda told dissatisfied European Commissioners that he had already decided to sign laws on judicial reform.

Thus, the launch of sanctions by the European Commission did not frighten the Poles. On the contrary, they showed a decisive attitude.

The European Commission also did not give up its decisions. The executive body of the EU still requires Warsaw to reject new laws and fulfill a number of EU requirements. Among them are the main ones: Warsaw must abandon the idea of ​​extending the mandates of the members of the Supreme Court by the personal decision of the president; Warsaw is ordered to annul the new regime of resignation of judges: the Minister of Justice should not have the right to dismiss judges at his own will; Warsaw should also restore the independence of the country's constitutional tribunal.

European commissioners left a loophole for Poland: the 7 article will not be applied if, within three months, Warsaw still fulfills the requirements of Brussels.

A month later, in January, the European Commission chairman tried to reassure the European and Polish public. According to him, Brussels has differences with Warsaw because of the reform of the Polish judicial system, but the EU is not preparing to impose sanctions against Poland "by all means."

"We are in a constructive dialogue with the Polish government, - said Jean-Claude Juncker, speaking at the European Parliament. - We are not at war with Poland. We have a disagreement with the Polish government. ”

The crisis in relations between Poland and the European Union is also annoying to Germany, which is the economic engine of the EU.

It came to the assumption of the withdrawal of Poland from the European Union.

Leaving Poland from the EU is “absolutely possible.” This is stated directly in the title of the article by J. Kroll, published in the German newspaper «Die Welt».

Concern about possible violations of the rule of law in Poland, the author notes, the European Commission for the first time expressed it back in 2016 year. Since then, the “confrontation” of the parties has only intensified. And the time came when Brussels took "decisive action."

By deciding to hit the “legal atomic bomb” on the government in Warsaw, the European Commission takes a big risk, which is fraught with consequences for the whole of Europe.

Frans Timmermans, the first deputy of Jean-Claude Juncker and the Commissioner for Interdepartmental Relations and the Rule of Law, now feels “uncomfortable,” Krolly believes. He considers the initiation of the procedure of sanctions against Poland a difficult decision. But putting the core values ​​of the European Union at risk is unacceptable. He stated this himself in Brussels. This is done “with a heavy heart,” but “there is no other way out,” Timmermans summed up. “It’s not only in Poland, it concerns the whole European Union,” he added.

As a result, Poland will be hit from the “heaviest weapon” of the EU, which is only in the arsenal. According to the European Commission today, Poland has violated the principle of the independence of its judiciary, and therefore Brussels intends to call on the countries of the union to initiate a judicial investigation against Poland.

And the first question for an analyst concerned about the fate of Eastern Europe is this: does Brussels understand how counterproductive the “unprecedented solution” is? And another: does Brussels understand how much such a decision feeds the existing frustration from the EU?

Timmermans and his colleagues, of course, are aware of this risk. Therefore, for two years, Timmermans tried to dissuade the Polish government from reorganizing the justice system. Negotiations, inquiries, mediation efforts, visits, invitations - that just has not been tried! Brussels, however, was never able to “force Warsaw to surrender,” the author notes. Therefore, in the end, a bet was made on the “atomic version” (that is, on the application of Article 7 of the above-mentioned contract). For Brussels, it is time to act.

Are the most serious sanctions possible?

Hardly.

Strict penalties can only be taken by all EU countries by unanimous decision. But Hungary has already stated that it is firmly on the side of Warsaw.

Against the background of the crisis in relations between Poland and the EU, there is also political tension between the East and the West, the author recalls. The split is expanding. The opinion is expressed that the “right-wing Catholic government of Poland” successfully imposed on the society the image of the EU as an enemy of Poland and declared that the “morally decayed” West is “rolling”.

The current "legal atomic bomb" from the European commissioners will only accelerate centrifugal forces. Perhaps the EU has waited too long and now it can hardly do anything in the struggle for the rule of law in Poland. 13 laws have already been passed.

In Brussels, however, believe that the risk of inaction is even higher.

The consequences of the sanction strike are “hardly predictable,” the author of the material said. Who knows if this will not end with Poland’s withdrawal from the EU, which will take place even if the population doesn’t want it (and according to surveys, it doesn’t want it).

According to political analyst Renata Mienkowska, the Polish government is probably not interested in staying in the EU after 2020, that is, after the next parliamentary elections and at the beginning of the new EU budget period. “It hurts me to say that,” she said, “but the withdrawal of Poland from the EU is absolutely possible” (absolut möglich).

So think not only political scientists.

Polish authorities may hold a referendum on leaving the EU "in the style of Brexit", suggests the President of the European Council Donald Tusk. According to him, this will happen if Poland stops receiving funding from Brussels.

The head of the European Council is convinced that the Polish party “Law and Justice” sees the benefit of participating in the European Union solely in receiving funds. Poland wants to be a “pure beneficiary”. And while the European Union is throwing money into Poland, the game for Poland is “worth the candle.” Everything that goes beyond the balance of payments (common market, law and order, guaranteed security, etc.) is not interested in Poland.

“Therefore, - the British newspaper quotes the chairman of the European Council "The Telegraph"- I can easily imagine a situation where one day Poland will be among [not the beneficiaries, but] contributors, and the Polish government will decide that the time has come to ask the Poles whether they still want to see Poland in the EU and then work in that direction so that they [Poles] come to the conclusion: it is necessary to say goodbye to EU membership. ”

According to Tusk, Brussels still has high hopes for the preservation of Poland in the EU.

Some experts do not admit that the friction between Poland and Brussels can shake the unity of the EU.

Differences between Poland and European bureaucrats will hardly shake the foundations of the EU: the “locomotives” of the union will agree among themselves, says Yury Solozobov, director of international projects at the National Strategy Institute. He is quoted RIA News:

“The European Union locomotives, France and Germany, will be able to agree on the creation of a unitary Europe. Here it is important who will enter the core of this union, and who will remain on the periphery. In the current situation, Poland just will not be released. Warsaw is the largest recipient of financial assistance from the EU, and after 2020, it should start paying for the funds provided. Therefore, Brussels from Poland will not refuse. As the German experts are joking, it is easier to change the Polish leadership than to let the situation in Warsaw go by itself. And in the country itself, no one from the EU really wants to leave - everyone appreciates a comfortable life. ”


So why does Poland behave this way? This was explained by another expert, political scientist Sergei Stankevich, who lived in Poland for several years. “In the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Sejm deputies had the principle of liberum veto, a free veto, which allowed any deputy to stop the discussion,” he recalled. - It is preserved in the national character: Poland has the right to veto. Plus nobility arrogance, passion: "I will die, but I will insist on it." Therefore, the chain of the world socialist system was broken there. ”

* * *


Will the Poles insist on their? Hardly. Today, Great Britain has faced great difficulties in the form of a “payment for a divorce”. Well, Poland, which will have to pay for European support, in case of an attempt to leave the EU after 2020, is facing a real financial collapse. The government that is acting now simply does not look that far. These are temporary workers - they are doing business today, tomorrow others will be clearing them.

Show beneficiaries, depositors will respond.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
26 comments
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  1. Rusland
    Rusland 19 January 2018 15: 12
    12
    America needs its troublemaker in Europe. Another mosol in the throat of the European Union.
    1. Basil50
      Basil50 19 January 2018 15: 35
      11
      rusland
      Well what are you. In the USA, not so outstanding minds. They just got attached to the situation, especially since the Poles are ready for any, even illusory, opportunity to become leaders of any process. In the same way, the Poles led their policies until 1939. It was only the Germans that then, today they have appointed themselves leaders.
      The Poles then showed insanity in politics today. Most likely the Poles are being used again and again the Poles will be offended by the whole world, and of course to RUSSIA and the RUSSIANS who did not kill saving the Poles.
      Feeling great power and feed at someone else's expense. How is it in polish.
      1. Angler
        Angler 19 January 2018 18: 46
        +3
        Americans may not shine with a special mind, but for some reason, even in their jokes, the Poles occupy the niche that the Chukchi occupied in Soviet jokes.
        1. Grandfather
          Grandfather 19 January 2018 19: 16
          +3
          Well, in the Russian "media", the Poles are represented by such wretched and stubborn characters as Yakub,or sigmund I think there are others, but you need to show these.
      2. antivirus
        antivirus 19 January 2018 21: 02
        0
        Are the most serious sanctions possible?
        Hardly.
        the Poles will change the tariffs from the EU by 1-2% and scrolling the dough will not be in their favor - without prospects. The turnover is very large - every billion is important and they will find compromises.
        and the way out and other hops is from the evil one-- go to work where are the Poles?
      3. Observer2014
        Observer2014 19 January 2018 23: 20
        +2
        Basil50
        Most likely the Poles are being used again and again the Poles will be offended by the whole world, and of course to RUSSIA and the RUSSIANS who did not kill saving the Poles.
        It’s good to put balconies on the Poles. Balconies fall on offended balconies. You need a common border between Germany and Russia !!!! And into the furnace this Poland with its Wishlist and dreams.
      4. Orionvit
        Orionvit 20 January 2018 19: 55
        0
        The Poles apparently take an example from Ukraine, and with their gentry ambition, they decided to quarrel with all their neighbors, and not only. They knew what they were signing up for when they pushed into the European Union with all their might. Well, of course, give money and do not interfere further. Well, let's see, or they rely on the main defender from overseas, who for the policy of Russophobia, will cover them from the "wrath" of the European bureaucrats.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  2. Dzmicer
    Dzmicer 19 January 2018 15: 13
    +7
    The cunning plan of the great-power Poland: get money from the EU and leave the EU

    Ukraine fed for decades (and now feeds) from the hands of the Russian Federation, which did not prevent it from leaving the CIS. So nothing new.
    In fact, the worst thing that can happen is that Poland will leave the EU and begin to feed with the generous hand of the Kremlin, which still operates on the principle of "nothing to Russians - all to fraternal peoples." Whether the Russian Federation, which is dragging Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus, and Central Asia to Poland, can withstand it, is a very big question.
    1. Chertt
      Chertt 19 January 2018 17: 04
      +1
      Quote: Dzmicer
      Will the Russian Federation survive, dragging Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus and Central Asia on its hump

      The person who writes this is either not very smart, or a provocateur. This has been discussed so many times.
  3. Terenin
    Terenin 19 January 2018 15: 15
    +8
    The cunning plan of great-power Poland ... This is in honor of what a fright she is great-power? To be a great power state is one thing, and to have the ambitions (sensation) of great power is another.
    Or are they themselves? Like Ukrainians, they shout to themselves - "Fat to Ukraine ..." Well, whoever you don’t look at, they are all great-power and proud. To speak, simply, there is nobody.
  4. Antianglosax
    Antianglosax 19 January 2018 15: 28
    +1
    But this bubbling, decaying Geyropsky pack has the audacity to teach Great Russia and even yelp at it! I like the processes taking place in the geyrop; refugees would only have to give them a couple of million more to give them joy, otherwise wait now that the newcomers will multiply and arrange a goat's face for the overgrown gayropists.
    1. Terenin
      Terenin 21 January 2018 13: 43
      +5
      Who will stand in an unequal dispute: puffy lyakh il faithful Ross?
      A.S.Pushkin.
  5. Lexus
    Lexus 19 January 2018 15: 32
    +2
    The cunning plan of the great-power Poland: get money from the EU and leave the EU

    Quietly steal from gone - called found. Pshecodertals and dill are brothers in mind.
  6. parusnik
    parusnik 19 January 2018 15: 34
    +8
    About Poland to write a comment, how to talk about a deceased ... But you can’t say better than Churchill ... Poland is the hyena of Europe ...
    1. Angler
      Angler 19 January 2018 18: 49
      +3
      Do not insult hyenas and the dead. The first animals are useful, and the latter did not deserve it.
  7. KVU-NSVD
    KVU-NSVD 19 January 2018 15: 36
    +5
    Poland will be in the EU while it receives more than it gives from this union. Then he will instantly change his hands and “being in disagreement with the requirements of the EU” will make a generous Europeans a pen. "Poland - the hyena of Europe" - W. Churchill
    1. Ronald Reagan
      Ronald Reagan 19 January 2018 21: 37
      0
      An extremely strong hyena, which in the future will unite the Baltic countries, as well as Ukraine and Belarus, into a single force.
  8. Dormidont
    Dormidont 19 January 2018 17: 49
    +1
    "great power Poland" is the same oxymoron as "independent Ukraine"
  9. konus
    konus 19 January 2018 23: 19
    +1
    He reviewed and commented, but did not understand and did not let us understand why there is a conversation about 2020. And everything is very simple. Over the past 17 years, Poland has received subsidies in the amount of about 11 billion euros from the European Union. Weighty appendage to the budget. And such appendages (but smaller) were made for the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic and so on. However, in 1916, the Brexit procedure began - (Britain's exit from the European Union). But Great Britain was one of the main donor countries. Now, the EU’s piggy bank will no longer receive British billions of euros. In addition, the procedure for Britain to exit the EU should end in 2020. Something this date began to repeat often! However, it is in 2020 that the issue of subsidies from the EU to borrower countries will be considered. And most likely in 2020, these subsidies will simply end. And then, indeed, Poland simply has nothing to do as part of the European Union. And all that the author writes about is just a smokescreen of economic reality.
  10. iouris
    iouris 20 January 2018 02: 03
    +1
    I would not be so worried about Poland and the EU. It has long been obvious that the essence of the problem is that Mr. appointed Warsaw as his beloved wife. Poland is turning into the main player in the newly-formed East European military-political bloc "from sea to sea", which will finish off the USSR, and receive money for this business both from the EU and the USA, and, perhaps, only from the EU, which is turning to the rear supply authority.
  11. ul_vitalii
    ul_vitalii 20 January 2018 02: 31
    +6
    Quote: Vasily50
    rusland
    Well what are you. In the USA, not so outstanding minds. They just got attached to the situation, especially since the Poles are ready for any, even illusory, opportunity to become leaders of any process. In the same way, the Poles led their policies until 1939. It was only the Germans that then, today they have appointed themselves leaders.
    The Poles then showed insanity in politics today. Most likely the Poles are being used again and again the Poles will be offended by the whole world, and of course to RUSSIA and the RUSSIANS who did not kill saving the Poles.
    Feeling great power and feed at someone else's expense. How is it in polish.

    It is commendable that you underestimate America, it’s simpler, but in the 30s England licked Poland, that’s why she lives, she always needs a curator with a position in her politics. And everyone’s thoughts and desires are different, Poland has these. There will be a bull byab cow.
  12. XII Legion
    XII Legion 20 January 2018 10: 06
    15
    They do not let animals to themselves
    Well done, you won’t say anything.
  13. Metallurg_2
    Metallurg_2 20 January 2018 13: 28
    +2
    "Poland was a great power. Where is Poland now?"
    (from a statement by I.V. Stalin to the Estonian ambassador K. Selter, September 28, 1939)
    1. akims
      akims 20 January 2018 15: 32
      0
      "Where is Poland? She is not there, she was eaten for lunch!" - football chant.
  14. lance
    lance 20 January 2018 20: 17
    0
    Great Poland was, is and will be only in the minds of the Poles. Russia, neither now nor in the future is needed. EU already ate too. Poland’s exit from the EU is akin to the Baltic states and they understand this.
  15. Terenin
    Terenin 21 January 2018 14: 59
    +5
    Quote: Dead Day
    Well, in the Russian "media", the Poles are represented by such wretched and stubborn characters as Yakub,or sigmund I think there are others, but you need to show these.

    These politicians are doing their best to take the place of their fellow countryman - a native of Poland and Russophobe Z. Brzezinski, who was one of the most knowledgeable and influential figures in American politics. Their statements, like everything else in him, have no objective political analysis, but an angryly obsessive propaganda character that can be seen; they do not even have the mind to hide their subjective and personal interests, neglect, rejection or rejection of everything that is not in their interests. But by this, they render a "bear" service primarily to the Polish people.