Last year, 100 celebrated the years of the Great October Socialist Revolution. With what results did Russia celebrate the anniversary of Great October Revolution, the holiday of which - November 7 - was canceled and “hung up” with an artificial Day of National Unity, it is unclear who is with whom (similar to the bashful veiling of the word “Lenin” at the Mausoleum during parades)?
In August, 2017, as if for the anniversary of the October Revolution, an international team of experts led by T. Piketty, author of the scientific bestseller “Capital in the 21st Century”, published a report “From Soviets to Oligarchs: Inequality and Property in Russia in 1905-2016”. The report is on the Internet and we have already been inserted into the information space (this was done by E. S. Larina in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda). According to the report, the amount of offshore capital of Russians exceeds the level of the country's foreign exchange reserves by about three times. In 2015, the volume of offshore assets amounted to about 75% of the country's national income. In other words, in offshore centers there are almost as many finances of wealthy Russians as the entire population of the Russian Federation keeps inside the country.
According to the Global Wealth Report, the share of 1% of rich Russians accounts for 71% of all personal assets of Russia. For comparison, the share of 1% in India is 49% of personal assets, in Africa - 44%, in the USA - 37%, in China and Europe - 32%, in Europe - 17%. The world average is 46%, and in our country 71%, that is, the wealthy of Russia exceeded the world figures 1,6 times. Another indicator by which the Russian Federation leads is the share of the wealthiest 5% of the population in the personal wealth of the country - 82,5%. The remaining 95, therefore, have 17,5% - and, as they say, do not deny yourself anything! Another killer figure: 96 Russian billionaires own 30% of all personal assets of Russian citizens. World average is 2%. That is, Russian billionaires are 15 times cooler than the world average.
According to Knight Frank, which is presented in a report prepared under the guidance of T. Piketty, in the Russian Federation the number of multimillionaires with 30 million dollars, centrillionaires from 100 million, and billionaires increased from 2004 to 2014 year 3,5 times and, according to the forecast, it will increase by another one and a half times up to 2024. And the other side of the medal is this: from 1992 of the year to 2016, the 1,7 trillions of dollars were stolen from Russia in the form of illegal financial flows, and the raw materials for 25 years were exported to 5 trillions of dollars. But Marx once wrote that property is not a theft, but a legal relation.
According to Global Burden of Disease Studies, the Russian Federation ranks 119-e place in the world for the health of citizens; In the ranking of the comfort of life of older people (the size of pensions, the state of health, the quality of the social environment), the RF is in the 79 spot from 91. According to our Rosstat, 22,7 million people. (15,7%) have an income below the subsistence minimum (which, by the way, is underestimated here), that is, they are poor. According to Eurostat criteria, the poor are those with incomes below 60% of median income in a given country. There we have 25%.
And here is from recent data: October 6 RIA News reported that the Russian Federation came out on top in Europe for the early mortality of men: 43% of men in the Russian Federation die before reaching the age of 65. In Ukraine and Belarus, this indicator is 40%, in Moldova - 37%, in Lithuania - 36%. Answering the question why this is happening, experts say that one of the reasons is the psychotrauma and stress that men received in the 1990s. That is, in other words, the capitalist mode in Russia may well exist, but capitalist Russia as a whole is a dying or just dead Russia.
Capitalism as a system for Russia as a whole can only exist to plunder the country, as a means of this process. And since the main factor in the accumulation of funds at the top was the devouring and theft of the Soviet heritage, production itself did not develop.
Recently, a very interesting interview was given by one of the best specialists in economic stories USSR G. Khanin, author of the three-volume "Economic History of the USSR and the Russian Federation." As Khanin notes, “from 1992 to 2015, the year of Russia's GDP did not grow by 13,4% at all, as Rosstat says, but decreased by 10,2%. Labor productivity during this time did not increase by 9,2%, but decreased by 30,1%. ” That is, our economy has not yet reached the level of 1991 of the year. And to the question of the journalist Trushkin, “can we overcome the lag behind developed countries?” Khanin, as a sober person and a patriot, replies: “To overcome is unthinkable. Imagine that you are standing at the start, and your rivals have gone forward for 5 kilometers. ” The country's leadership, Khanin is convinced, relies on erroneous data on the economy and underestimates the depth of the problems. There is an illusion that economic growth is possible without serious costs.
“I figured,” says Khanin, “that in 2015 prices of the year, 3 trillion rubles of investments, plus 14,6 billion rubles in working capital and human capital development, that is, in education, would be required to preserve fixed assets and their growth by 900% , healthcare, scientific research need to invest 10,3 trillion rubles. All together, this amounts to 25,8 trillion rubles a year - a third of our GDP. ” To the question of the journalist “and nothing can be done?” - Khanin says: “You can narrow the gap. For this, it is necessary to redistribute the incomes of the population in favor of accumulating physical and human capital and the most needy strata, but even this will require tremendous efforts. You can, for example, redistribute incomes of the population, reduce the social differentiation of decile groups from the current 30: 1 to 6: 1. That is, up to the indicator that exists in most Western European countries, but it will take many years. ”
Here I have to disagree with Khanin. We don’t have many years - taking into account the geopolitical situation, taking into account the impending global crisis, and taking into account the socio-economic situation in the country. In addition, in general, the redistribution of income in favor of the poor and the poor in an evolutionary way no one succeeded. This is a revolutionary measure. The question is whether this is done from above or below. In short, the absence of redistributive measures leads the country straight to a catastrophe, since the resolution of Russia's economic problems is impossible without first solving social problems. In turn, social problems, that is, inequality, cannot be solved otherwise than by political means. A political decision implies an ideology, which in the Russian Federation is de jure, according to the Constitution, no. As I said in one interview, the lot of those who have no ideology is a picnic on the side of History. And on the terrible time approaching on a global scale, this may no longer be the verge of History, but its stool. True, the Constitution contains the thesis that the Russian Federation is a social state. Here it is time to present to the authorities: "Observe our / your Constitution." However, instead of making demands, someone chooses a different path. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the number of people leaving the Russian Federation is constantly growing: 2011, 36 774 people, 2012, 122 751 people, 2013, 186 382 people, 2014, 310 496 people, 2015 g. - 353 233 people. Of 30 who have left over the past 10 years, one million and a half million are scientists, mainly young and promising. This is an asymmetrical response to the situation in the Russian Academy of Sciences, which is determined by two factors: the inertia and inadequacy of the modern world to the leadership of the Russian Academy of Sciences and its pogrom from the outside under the guise of reform.
Here we come to the question: what should be the ideology in the new Russia? I have no answer to this question: I do not know what the new ideology of Russia should be (or the ideology of the new Russia). But I know what it should not and cannot be, otherwise Russia is not waiting for anything other than the chronicle of the announced death. The ideology of the new Russia cannot be bourgeois or, as we often say, “liberal”. And it's not just that in Russia liberalism, monarchy and the Russian Orthodox Church discredited themselves in February-March 1917. The fact is that liberalism in the world died in 1910-ies, immediately after the turn of the XIX– XX centuries. capitalism has exhausted its economic potential (its achievements in the twentieth century are provided non-economically), and what is called “liberalism” or “neoliberalism” has nothing to do with real liberalism today. The current Russian “Western liberals” look very poor. However, those who are called “patriotic statesmen”, “imperials” also have problems.
The main one is the socio-economic, class content of the neo-empire. Ratuya for the tough Stalinist course, other Imperials do not understand the elementary thing: the Stalinist system is incompatible even with a socialist (anti-capitalist) oligarchy, not to mention a capitalist-type oligarchy. An attempt to combine empire and capitalism in Russian history was already in the late XIX - early XX century. and failed miserably. Therefore, you should neither step on a rake, nor depict "cotton with one palm." Stalin's methods work only in conditions of anti-capitalism, and in Russian conditions it is not Pinochet, as some liberals dreamed about in 1990, it is something like a “tandem” Yeltsin-Berezovsky. There is no other way in our reality. Conclusion: the question of neo-empire (or imperial-like education), about the “Stalinist legacy” is not a political issue, but a socio-economic one, if you like - a class issue. A different formulation of the question is idle chatter at best, provocation at worst.
Ideology cannot look into the past and, moreover, cling to the wreckage of a bygone era: that is, kings and priests are the past; all hopes of restoring a monarchy are a look into the past. It’s impossible to go to the future, looking back all the time. Nor can we be allowed to reduce our history to its last - Christian - millennium, depriving us of at least two or three millennia of our pre-Christian history, which was not at all an era of savagery and lack of culture. On the contrary, it was then that the foundation and first floors of the Rus building were created. Russia of the last millennium has grown on a powerful foundation of Russian, Slavic and Indo-European traditions, organically intertwined with each other. Byzantine Christianity (10th century), Peter Westernism (18th century), Soviet communism (anti-capitalism, 20th century) became only later strata, add-ins on this powerful historical foundation, which substantially changed strata, adapted them to itself.
Outwardly, this foundation may not seem to be something solid, but an amorphous mass, which in itself does not generate power pyramids. In Russia, “the rulers,” writes O. Markeev, “always introduced the idea of a pyramid from the outside, fascinated by the order and splendor of the overseas countries. But not they, but the mass itself decided whether to envelop it with life-giving mucus, feed it to the summit with life-giving juices or reject, allowing it to live on its own, to suddenly and unexpectedly ruin it with one powerful impulse, with the waking energy of the womb of the mass ". And another thing: “the mass only from the height of the pyramid seems like a kissel ... inside it hides a rigid crystal lattice, from which it forges rods, piercing another power pyramid introduced from abroad, and ... only these rods bestow pyramid stability and integrity; it is necessary to remove them, nothing will save the state pyramid from collapse. ”
Our "grids" are much older and stronger than the "pyramids", the ideology of the new Russia should take this into account and take them into account in the first place - this is what the elementary principles of systemism and historicism require.
Ideology should give a clear definition of the future desired for most of the country (goal) and name, at least in the most general terms, the means of achieving it (the present). It should clearly define the attitude to the past, first of all - to the Soviet. There are clear markers - phenomena, events and figures: Stalin, Gorbachev; restructuring as the destruction of the USSR; Soviet system; capitalism; Yeltsin and Yeltsin. Position on these issues makes it clear: who are you, masters of power, with the people or not? It is impossible to be with the people, winking at the same time to the West and flirting with those whom the authorities themselves from time to time call the “fifth column”.
Ideology is also symbolism: coat of arms, flag, anthem. Fortunately, our anthem, albeit with modified words, is Soviet. With the emblem and flag, the situation is different. I can’t say that I am delighted with the two-headed eagle, but eagle heads with crowns returned not so long ago are preferable to heads without crowns - this is the type of chicken-like birds that appeared on the coat of arms of the Provisional Government in February 1917 and Yeltsin RF sample 1992. Then they returned the tricolor.
As for the flag, it should symbolize power and historical victoriousness. He should be reminded of victories and in no case should be associated with defeats and dirty with betrayal. White-blue-red was the flag of the Provisional Government, which collapsed the country and essentially threw state sovereignty under the feet of Russia's worst enemy - Britain. Under this flag, the Vlasovites who served Hitler, killed their own Russians, took part, along with the Croats, in punitive actions against the Serbian partisans. Not by chance during the Victory Parade 25 July 1941, the Vlasov tricolor flew to the foot of the Mausoleum, along with the flags of the Wehrmacht units, the SS and other flags of the enemy defeated by the Soviet Union.
But the red flag is the flag of the Victory, the flag of restoration of historical Russia in the form of the USSR. This flag was over the Reichstag. And one more very important thing: Svyatoslav had a red flag. It was, however, not a star and a hammer and sickle, but the sun! I don't care what will be there, but the flag should be red. Red means beautiful, it is the Russian traditional color of victory.
And do not look back on what is said in the West. First, it is humiliating, as well as humiliating constant discussions, what Trump said, etc. Secondly, it is useless to look around: there we were appointed not just guilty, but victims, as the Italian philosopher D. Agamben would say, who do not even have the right to have a defensive speech. Apparently, Russia and the Russians are prepared for a “final solution” of our question - in and of itself, and because with its help the hosts of the world game will try to prolong the life (dying) of their own system and eliminate Russians as the only people, as the only civilization which is able to oppose them with their own version of the future, and not locally-regional, like the Chinese, Indians or even Muslims, but universal-world. It is clear that the carrier of such a potential threat will try to remove. Therefore, it is not necessary to look back to the western side and be afraid to break the flags placed over the last quarter of a century around us - “for flags - the thirst for life is stronger!” (V. Vysotsky).
The authorities in Russia must clearly define the Russian question. “The Russian world” should not be created outside the borders of the Russian Federation, not on the territory of the former USSR, but primarily in Russia itself. This should manifest itself in different ways: both in fixing the status of Russians as the state-forming people, and in tough opposition to Russophobia and the destruction of Russian culture, and in many other ways. Otherwise, the Russian world is a fiction, props, a bureaucratic conjuncture.
Yury Trifonov in his best, in my opinion, the novel “The Old Man” remarked that “old age is a time when there is no time.” No longer. There is no time for capitalism, for capitalist Post-Zapad. The “Portrait of Dorian Gray” is rapidly leaving, and the image of a brave man in the color of years shows something between a superstar's face of centenary Rockefeller, faces from Bosch or Grunewald’s paintings and a ruthlessly cold reptile face. And to buy the extra time of its existence is something, this undead is going to including at our expense. Brzezinski said that the world of the 21st century will be built on the ruins of Russia, at the expense of Russia and to the detriment of Russia. As Ilya Muromets used to say in similar cases: “But don't you choke, Pagan idol?”.
During the Soviet era, “Idolishche” wore a mask of a fighter for human rights, primarily in the USSR, the advocate of dissidents, sugar, Solzhenitsyn, etc. But the USSR left, the masks were dropped, and natural faces came out from under them - Lies and Evil, coarse turned out. Recall Vysotsky:
Lies and evil - look,
How rude their faces!
And always behind
Ravens and coffins.
And the grin of death. Indeed: Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine - death, coffins, ravens. It is impossible to negotiate with Evil and Lies, more precisely, their personifiers - Gaddafi tried. Short-term tactical truces are possible, or even alliances with a lesser evil against a greater one (for example, the alliance of the USSR with Great Britain and the USA within the framework of the anti-Hitler coalition) are no more than that. It should be remembered that the "partners" are constantly ready to organize the "unthinkable" - like Churchill, who planned on 1 July 1945, a blow to the Soviet army by force of German (mainly) and Anglo-American divisions.
The answer about what its orientation is - traditionally Russian or non-traditional (pro) western - will have to be given to the authorities in the near future. In addition, then the time may not remain. The procrastination of death is similar, as one classic used to say, who found himself in an acute situation a hundred years ago. And you can’t sit down on two chairs: the examples of Nicholas II and Gorbachev should be in front of your eyes, especially since for three decades the chairs have dispersed, and the western predators need only one chair, they need the second one unnecessarily, and they will knock it out. Keep? The same chair - yes, and the foe. In short, to drag out time and delay the choice, the decision will no longer work: circumstances will not allow, they are clearly stronger than such an intention, if there is one. It makes no sense to shy away from the struggle when it is inevitable. I will never forget how Yu.V. Andropov, having become the General Secretary, immediately declared that let the imperialists not fear us - if they do not touch us, then we will not touch them. What is that supposed to mean? No, the timid and short-sighted general secretary of the CPSU, the imperialists should be afraid of us, only in this case they will not dare to touch us.
Today, solving the problems of the Russian Federation is the creation of not just a mobilization economy, this is secondary. A high-tech mobilization economy in the present conditions can be created only by a society with high social efficiency, whose members will be fighting for and defending. Unfortunately, there are less and less grounds for optimism, especially not being pleased with the social and economic policy of the government, which is logically developing the Yeltsin line to stagnate the economy and liquidate the welfare state, which, by the way, is spelled out in our Constitution.
Here are some examples of the most recent past. Some time ago, the Russian government announced the draft budget for the next three years. In fact, it is a "type of development plan." Why type? Because real development is not supposed. Over the past 9 years, the Russian economy, according to official statistics, has grown by as much as 1,7%. Annual increase in 0,2%. In reality, I think, the growth was negative - let's remember Khanin’s calculations. And 0,2% is already a statistical error. Maybe a plus, and maybe a minus. With such a hurry for 2020, Russia will overtake not only China, but also India and Turkey by nominal per capita income. In essence, the draft budget assumes the preservation of economic stagnation. In the first decades of the 21st century, as reported by Nezavisimaya Gazeta from October 4 of this year, China overtook Russia in terms of wages, and Kazakhstan in terms of consumer spending. At the same time, poverty is rapidly increasing in our country.
Oligarchs and the government, which, in fact, expresses their interests, do not care about stagnation, because stagnation is their means of solving problems at the expense of the population. The more the economy of the Russian Federation stagnates, the more profit they have, since in order for the economy not to stagnate, it is necessary to produce what is called very simply - Sovietization of the economy. Therefore, of course, stagnation suits them.
According to the project, the social sphere of funds in 2018 will be allocated less than in 2017: 4,86 trillion instead of 5 trillion. And we have already been told that in 2019 there will be even less, and there will be the toughest budget in all the years of the 21st century. That is, guys, tighten your belt, there is no money, but you hold on! It is clear that if this policy continues, the government will increase taxes and resort to more or less hidden forms of expropriation. One example is the “country story”, which caused outrage.
The rich, the oligarchs, most likely, will not touch, as evidenced by the following fact. The government made an unprecedented decision on impudence and cynicism: not to transfer to the jurisdiction of Russia those companies, banks and corporations that are systemically important. We are talking about 199 legal entities that give 70% of Russia's gross product. Some time ago, the president said that it was a disgrace, that nine-tenths of transactions were being conducted outside the legal field of Russia, everything had to be returned. The president said one thing, and the government answers him: no. And it motivates it like this: “Repatriation of money for Russian companies from offshore companies will create a systemic risk for the domestic economy and weaken the competitive position of large businesses in the global economy.”
And it is only at first glance it seems nonsense from the point of view of state interests. And from the point of view of the oligarchic segment - the most it. This decision fixes further offshoring of what is called the Russian economy. By the way, here the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation decided to exclude the British Virgin Islands from the black list of offshore companies. Why? It turns out that most of the yachts of our oligarchs are attributed to the British Virgin Islands. We have taken care of the yachts! The oligarchs will now do everything to hide their money, and it is clear why. At the end of August of this year in the United States, a law was passed on economic sanctions, which directly ordered the United States financial intelligence to collect full information about those surrounded by our president within six months. We are talking about accounts, offshore, financial flows, connections, etc.
We count six months from August 2017 and get the very beginning of 2018. This is the eve of the presidential election in the Russian Federation. That is, the Americans, in fact, say: “Who are you, masters of offshores? If you are with the President of the Russian Federation, then you are no longer masters and not apprentices, but you will go with an outstretched hand, or even to a zugunder. ” Once, clever Zapadoida lured Vor from the Russian Federation into their banks, their offshores, convincing them that it was possible to place deposits there. This is supposedly safe, just say: “Cracks, Packs, Fax!” - and international law will protect you. That is, they sang the song of Alice and the cat Basilio, thievishly rich Buratino. I will quote:
Do not hide your money in banks and corners,
Carry your money, otherwise be trouble.
And they carried money there.
And at midnight your money is buried in the ground there,
And at midnight, bury your money in the ground where ...
Not mountains, nor ravines, nor forest,
Not an ocean without a bottom and coast,
And the field, the field, the field, the field, the field of miracles,
Field of miracles in the land of fools.
The main thing here - in the land of fools. And now these foxes and kotyars are threatening, having spat on the promised “cracks, packs, fax”, to select the gold that was previously hidden on the field of miracles. The conditions are simple: "Pinocchio" must pass "Papa Carlo". Surrender - they will be good, so, at least, they promise. However, as you know, Roma tratitoribus non premia - Rome does not pay traitors.
Both the draft budget and the “country history” rock the situation, create instability. Taking into account Ukraine and the American games in Syria, I think we are in trouble soon. And so you can say the words of the rider from "The Fairy Tale of Military Secrets" Gaidar: "The trouble came, the damned burzhuin attacked us because of the black mountains. Again the bullets are whistling, the shells are torn again. ” That is, the war moves to our borders, and if necessary it will need to be taken head on, this is clear. However, in the modern world, only a madman dares to commit aggression against the state with an atomic bomb and a socially effective cohesive society. After all, the calculation of the West, by the way, as in June 1941, Hitler, is not just a blitzkrieg. Hitler had expected a coup in Moscow, there would be a rift in Moscow - but that did not happen. Recall that Voland was able to hook only those who were rotten, and so that everything did not end as in the story of Malchish-Kibalchish, so that a broken burzhuin would run in fear, a socially effective society must be created as soon as possible. Only it can be the subject of strategic action, the subject of our victory. Just a mobilization economy, just a nuclear weapons few. We need a socially effective society, we need to reduce the level of social inequality. People can kill for money, but no one will die for money. They die for loved ones, for their homeland, for the highest ideals. And for those who have them. What are the ideals of the oligarchs and their state?
Unfortunately, time is running out. In 1931, Stalin said: "If we don’t run through 10 for years what the West ran for 100, we will be crushed." I'm not sure that we have 10 years. Fortunately, there is a legacy of Stalin and Beria - this is an atomic bomb, but time is ticking. True, it is ticking and under our, as they say now, partners. And the question is who will fall first. Actually, we have already passed. In the second half of 1980, the question was exactly this: who will fall first - the USSR or the USA (and with them the West)? Moreover, according to closed forecasts - the US and ours - the United States should have fallen. However, the North Atlantic elite beat the late Soviet - stupid and greedy. The USSR was destroyed, and Post-West, capitalism in its financial and criminal form received a bonus: an additional quarter of a century of life, although the very death of systemic anti-capitalism was familiar on the wall for capitalism as a system. Today, the situation repeats itself, only at stake is the destruction of the Russian Federation, much weaker than the USSR even the 1991 model of the year. However, the current West is in many ways reminiscent of a rotten wall - stick and fall apart. You just need to know where to poke and how - so that it does not collapse, but collapsed gradually, but inevitably, and so that it is not up to us. Finally, there is the remarkable principle of judo: use the power of the opponent against him. A lot of things to eat. But the main thing that should be is the will. The will to live, fight and win.