Military Review

Vasily Simchera: We sell energy at a loss

53
Vasily Simchera: We sell energy at a loss



From the official 86 trillions of rubles of Russian GDP, if you deduct a double count, there will be no more than 56 trillions. This is less than a trillion dollars at the exchange rate, with 35% of GDP accounted for the material part, and 65% for services. At the same time, in the material part two thirds of nomenclature positions make up today less than 10% to the level of 1990 of the year, while approximately 25% of goods are no longer produced, these positions have disappeared. The poor are not 20, but 70 million people, that is, half of the country, the unemployed are not 10, but 30 million, the depreciation of fixed assets for production purposes is not 49,5%, but 76%. We have not only housing, we have factories and factories - in disrepair. Inflation is not 2,5%, but 8,5%. Nabiullina says: "It only seems to people that prices are rising." And, you know, she is right. Because in Rosstat there are 2000 employees in all regions who bypass “their” stores and consider prices, for example, for meat and bread. What are they doing in stores? By the arrival of these controllers, what they report in advance, they simply change the price tags - for example, from 400 to 250 rubles per kilogram of beef. As a result, we have no inflation. Is it possible to expose, who should and will deal with this?

But why are these data distorted? To reduce government spending on social benefits. That is, the issue price is calculated in many billions of rubles. But inflation has actually dropped: from 14% in 2015 and 11,5% in 2016 - to 8,5% last year. Due to that, due to the sale of stock, products of the second and third grades, that is, non-liquid, conditionally speaking.

In the year 2017, the capital outflow also increased: black and gray and white, that is, according to the official balance of payments. But we must understand that the latter is interest on loans, debts on transactions and dividends - in general, a drop in the ocean. Although we reserve half of Russian export earnings in US securities and special accounts of the Fed as a guarantee for all financial requirements and imputed payments. This trillion dollars plus 1,3 trillion are offshore. But, probably, the most important thing - according to the World Customs Organization, the real value of our exports is two times higher than shown by the Rosstat and the customs service. Only non-refundable VAT on export transactions reaches 80 billion, or almost 4,5 trillion. rubles, this is a quarter of the federal budget expenditures for 2017 a year.

The situation with us, I'm sorry, is worse than in Ukraine. There, the Americans insure, here we are on sanctions lost more than a trillion dollars. And if we add to this the additional costs of the so-called import substitution, then this amount, starting with the 2014 year, can be safely increased by one and a half times. After all, there is a direct cost of production, but there is a full, taking into account all the associated costs. So, the total cost of a barrel of Russian oil today is higher than 60 dollars, we sell energy completely at a loss, as those anecdotal heroes who stole a box of vodka, sold it, and drank money. Or the classic “not enough to eat, but we will take out” - just not in the grain, but in the oil and gas version. In a good way, we need to buy oil, and not to sell, if it is cheaper than 80-100 dollars per barrel. But what?

If nothing bad happens, all this disgrace can last another thirty years, up to a maximum of 2050, but we don’t have any development in this mode, I’m talking about it without any pathos - just like a professional statistician.
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53 comments
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  1. Just a man
    Just a man 18 January 2018 05: 49
    18
    I am very critical of the issues of the economic policy of the leadership of our state, but what is laid out in the article resembles some kind of salad olivier from torn and invented, and also digital figures that are not connected to each other. More like a phrase from the movie - I think so. Well, about the unprofitability of the oil trade, this is generally feverish nonsense.
    1. dSK
      dSK 18 January 2018 07: 58
      15
      Hello Boris!
      Quote: Just a human
      oil trading loss
      Oil and gas processing plants to build, not Nord Stream -2. Each subsequent limit doubles the cost of the product, the number of employees in four. Gas - plastic - Idelias - etc. In Norway and England, deposits are running out, there are no new ones. Our reserves too are not unlimited, when Samotlor was mastered, fountains hit to the sky. They said the reserves are enough for 100 years. One gas torch could not put out whole year. Production in the Arctic is much more expensive for us and for them. Tales of cheap oil - nonsense or provocation. LNG for Europe is at least 50% more expensive. It's time to fasten the vent and raise export prices. After 50 years, the descendants will not remember us with kind words.
      1. dSK
        dSK 18 January 2018 08: 15
        +6
        In early January 2018, the spot gas price reached a mark on the New York site 6 300 dollars for 1 thousand cubic meters. That is, in 50-60 times higher than normal summer prices in the USA and in 30 times higherthan the average in the European market today. Moreover, this picture is repeated every time a cold comes to the USA.
        Russia sells natural (pipe) gas to Europe 180 - 200 dollars per 1 thousand cubic meters.
        1. AnpeL
          AnpeL 18 January 2018 10: 10
          +5
          and what will become a national treasure when gas runs out in Russia?
          1. Romey
            Romey 18 January 2018 11: 25
            12
            Quote: AnpeL
            and what will become a national treasure when gas runs out in Russia?

            When gas and oil run out, the Russian LLC will go bankrupt along with Gazprom and Rosneft. If nothing is done as of now.
            1. yehat
              yehat 18 January 2018 18: 57
              +1
              there will be bears on fat
            2. user
              user 19 January 2018 09: 41
              +2
              [quoteWhen gas and oil run out, LLC RF goes bankrupt along with Gazprom and Rosneft.] [/ quote]

              When the rush demand for Cardiff coal ended, England did not go bankrupt, well, Thatcher had just privatized the mines, though it had been 50 years after that, and before that it had made quite good money like Gazprom. For some reason, no one on this occasion tears his hair on. . . . . . (you can choose a place yourself).
          2. E_V_N
            E_V_N 22 January 2018 10: 04
            +1
            Quote: AnpeL
            and what will become a national treasure when gas runs out in Russia?

            Permanent GDP
          3. your1970
            your1970 22 January 2018 14: 12
            0
            article - bits of something incomprehensible:
            “the real value of our export is twice as high as that of Rosstat and the customs service. Only non-refund of VAT on export transactions reaches 80 billion dollars, or almost 4,5 trillion rubles, this is a quarter of the federal budget expenditures for 2017.)”
            All s / persons exporting goods always EXCEED (and not underestimate !!!) cost. This is done for RETURN VAT (or paying it at the so-called "zero rate) - the more exported, the more returned (credited). Real money, it was really dreary to knock out tax before.
            And sometimes it comes to anecdotes - when for example posters (!!) were called paintings by contemporary artists and estimated the VAT refund in the region of 2 bucks. And the company claimed these grandmothers seriously, and there was a criminal offense against the company, and the firms were put in
            No one has canceled the bank passports of transactions (under foreign trade contracts), currency control works, and if you do not return, they also shake
            in general - "This is not serious !!" © Operation "Y"

            everything is sad as regards trade - we are buying gas at exactly the price at which we are ready to buy. It is theoretically possible to raise the price - but even the USSR could not (even though it worked constantly with OPEC) .Also, when we raised the price, we Norwegians, the United States, Arabs and other owners of liquefied gas will come running our place right there
        2. To be or not to be
          To be or not to be 18 January 2018 12: 04
          +8
          Quote: SHVEDsky_stol
          Where did the author get these numbers? How will he reinforce them? For such factualization and argumentation, I would put a minus.





          1. Astoria
            Astoria 19 January 2018 00: 04
            +3
            Wow demotivation.me this is a serious economic resource, you still pull cats from there laughing
      2. yehat
        yehat 18 January 2018 18: 37
        +5
        our country can reduce the consumption of petroleum products by 5 times if it engages in their efficient use. It is easy to guess that the savings are gigantic.
    2. Loess
      Loess 18 January 2018 08: 33
      +2
      I agree with you, crazy article.
      1. captain
        captain 18 January 2018 18: 05
        +1
        Quote: Less
        I agree with you, crazy article.

        The consequences of the meeting of the "old New Year." Or maybe just vodka "left."
    3. Buffet
      Buffet 18 January 2018 10: 49
      +3
      Where did the author get these numbers? How will he reinforce them? For such factualization and argumentation, I would put a minus.
    4. E_V_N
      E_V_N 22 January 2018 10: 00
      0
      Quote: Just a human
      Well, about the unprofitability of the oil trade, this is generally feverish nonsense.

      You just read it inattentively, the article says "subject to full cost ", and the full cost must be included all from gasoline of a car driving a shift to laying yet another “Siberian force” or “Nord Stream 2”.
      1. RomanS
        RomanS 23 January 2018 14: 04
        0
        Try to assume that the cost is considered by SMART people. And there are taken into account indicators that are not clear to the layman.
  2. Stas157
    Stas157 18 January 2018 05: 55
    24
    . we sell energy completely at a loss

    Even if not at a loss, it’s still in the bottomless pocket of the oligarchs. Most domestic billionaires are commodity. They drive the people's good, hurt future generations, to the West. In fact, it is not only the Russian people who are legally robbed of, who, for the most part, are below the poverty line, but also future generations of unborn people.
    Previously, in the USSR, in schools, children were taught that natural resources are not replenished, that they need to be protected, for future generations. Now they don’t talk about it. But on the other hand, the Russian elite profits well from this.
  3. Just a man
    Just a man 18 January 2018 06: 05
    14
    The three points that characterize this super-economist will not be said by breakfast - 1. He stated that in the 90 years there were fewer poor and poor than now, 2. In 2012, in the wake of white-tape suffering, he confidently stated that Russia had no more than 6 years left (his articles 2011-2012 years), 3. In view of the complete lack of demand as a professional, he entered the public so-called academy of "economic" sciences. Such economists cannot be trusted with a collective farm.
    1. Golovan Jack
      Golovan Jack 18 January 2018 06: 12
      +9
      Quote: Just a human
      Such economists cannot be trusted

      They can’t even be trusted with Lennon ZAO laughing
    2. Captain45
      Captain45 18 January 2018 09: 48
      +5
      Quote: Just a human
      Three points that characterize this super-economist will not be said for breakfast

      I agree with you, the articles of Simchera have probably been 5-7 for years, how they come across and it all comes down to one - ALL MYSTERIES wassat crying
    3. captain
      captain 18 January 2018 18: 09
      +2
      Quote: Just a man
      The three points that characterize this super-economist will not be said by breakfast - 1. He stated that in the 90 years there were fewer poor and poor than now, 2. In 2012, in the wake of white-tape suffering, he confidently stated that Russia had no more than 6 years left (his articles 2011-2012 years), 3. In view of the complete lack of demand as a professional, he entered the public so-called academy of "economic" sciences. Such economists cannot be trusted with a collective farm.

      That was wrong to offend a person. He wrote, tried, wanted to show the worthlessness of Putin’s power, and you .... you don’t even want to entrust him to the collective farm. Offended the child in their own words.
      1. Romey
        Romey 18 January 2018 19: 56
        +5
        Well, then the time will come, but it is just around the corner and we will recall your gnawing. Something tells me that, unlike those for whom you pedal here, you have neither yachts, nor villas, no accounts, nor even kids in Valley Forge (who does not know, this is an elite military school in the states, and before that, the truth is that according to unverified rumors, the offspring of the patriot undoubtedly studied at Sandhurst, that I hope it doesn’t need to be clarified) as some deputies are undoubtedly patriots with Crimeans and sacred scrapers like this https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remezkov, Aleksandr
        _Alexandrovich to whom it is possible to wash off. Therefore, you are smiling at the prospect of dissolving all liquid substance after the 30 year rule of your idols with us. So smile, gentlemen, smile ...
        1. your1970
          your1970 22 January 2018 14: 23
          0
          Quote: romey
          Therefore, you are smiling at the prospect of dissolving all liquid substance after the 30 year rule of your idols with us. So smile, gentlemen, smile ...
          - how nice it is to hear such kind words from a person who apparently lives somewhere else - and not with us in a substance that worries about us ....

          Where are your idols? they call themselves communists - but at the same time they dine with the oligarchs?
        2. RomanS
          RomanS 23 January 2018 14: 06
          0
          So everything is in one boat! Straight Pi's life!
  4. Siberian
    Siberian 18 January 2018 06: 38
    +2
    An open day in a madhouse or something?
    1. oracul
      oracul 18 January 2018 07: 08
      +7
      It is precisely noticed: the Gaidar forum is a madhouse. Gathered to exchange experiences on how best to rob Russia - goals and prospects.
  5. 75 hammer
    75 hammer 18 January 2018 08: 45
    +3
    This article is about what, where is the thesis of the main idea? If we have the same “analysts” in the government, you can drain the water! If the article was about data fraud and about two Russian budgets “black” and “white”, facts to the studio, please! And just throwing "kaku" and in itself is basically unaesthetic! MINUS!!!!!!
  6. groks
    groks 18 January 2018 10: 49
    +8
    Maybe the author exaggerates and thickens. But it is clear that our statistics are muddied and that things are not at all as good as the patriots shout. Moreover, they are already slowly and they are starting to bleat quietly, that we should have at least done something to begin to our leadership.
    1. Captain45
      Captain45 18 January 2018 15: 12
      +1
      Quote: groks
      But it is clear that our statistics are muddied and that things are not at all as good as the patriots shout.

      And can you explain to me what exactly you understand that statistics are muddied and things are not so good. Please explain hi
      1. groks
        groks 18 January 2018 16: 26
        +2
        Specifically from shopping and your salary. The latter is due to the almost complete absence of orders from the defense industry.
  7. astronom1973n
    astronom1973n 18 January 2018 11: 15
    +2
    Everyone knows, they see. And how they really take the steering wheel, so write is gone. One guy said that if he didn’t pull the country in 500 days, he would fall on the rails. Either the train was delayed, or he had gone far. In general, he died. and trepachki of various liberal stripes such as Lehi and others like him, "promises."
  8. Lexus
    Lexus 18 January 2018 11: 24
    +8
    Vasily Simchera: We sell energy at a loss

    Looking at the Millers, Sechin and Vekselbergs, not surprised.
  9. _Jack_
    _Jack_ 18 January 2018 12: 58
    +1
    So, the total cost of a barrel of Russian oil today is above $ 60, we are trading in energy completely at a loss

    I think Rosneft, Lukoil, etc. would have gone bankrupt for a long time in this situation
    1. Cossack 471
      Cossack 471 18 January 2018 15: 57
      +6
      The article. Of course. Populist. you can’t argue. But there are questions to the president (and he appoints a mediocre government). During his reign, 2 trillion dollars were officially taken out of the country. He once announced that Russia had paid off almost all its debts. and after 3-4 years, the public debt is again almost equal to the gold and foreign exchange reserves. The question is who imposed debt on the country. nothing built for such an amount is visible. Why is it actively hampering the introduction of a progressive tax? Why hasn't the anti-corruption law been passed for 20 years? Decree No. 354 was instantly signed without hesitation. and the necessary laws are not accepted for years. and by this decree we all tolerate the arbitrariness of management companies. There are many questions. but he learned how to famously circumvent them in any communication with the people. I don’t know who he works for. but certainly not for the people. otherwise we would not have heard a mournful song saying that there is no money. despite the fact that during his reign several people began to own fortunes. in the amount of 2 times the GDP of Russia For whom to vote?
      1. _Jack_
        _Jack_ 18 January 2018 16: 00
        0
        Who to vote for?

        I have never voted for anyone and still do not see anyone I could
      2. Astoria
        Astoria 19 January 2018 00: 27
        0
        He once announced that Russia had paid off almost all its debts. and after 3-4 years, the national debt is again almost equal to the foreign exchange reserves

        1) Do not confuse total debt and public debt (https://www.minfin.ru/en/perfomance/public_debt/
        external / structure /)
        2) The question is who imposed debt on the country. nothing built for such an amount is visible. - If something is not visible to you, this does not mean that it is not. Oil (gas) production (refining), transport (air, railway) communications, metallurgy (ferrous, non-ferrous), coal mining, energy, retail, construction and much more. It was a debt investment, foreigners did not line up to buy shares at the normal price, they had to borrow. With an alcoholic, after all, there was no investment from the word at all.
        Why is it actively hampering the introduction of a progressive tax? - a controversial issue when they adopted the current tax system, the main goal was to whitewash the economy as much as possible.
  10. vladimych
    vladimych 18 January 2018 17: 54
    0
    “We have not 20 poor people, but 70 million people,” that is, half the country's population. Which half are you in?
    1. svp67
      svp67 18 January 2018 17: 56
      +1
      Quote: vladimych
      “We have not 20 poor people, but 70 million people,” that is, half the country's population

      Have you considered it yourself?
      70 million of the POOR, with a total of 140 million? As you look at the flow of cars in the mornings and evenings and you DON’T BELIEVE at once ...
      1. yehat
        yehat 18 January 2018 18: 41
        0
        I want to add that even if cars are free, now their maintenance already takes an amount that often exceeds the cost of living.
        1. svp67
          svp67 18 January 2018 19: 13
          0
          Quote: yehat
          I want to add that even if cars are free, now their maintenance already takes an amount that often exceeds the cost of living.

          What are we talking about ... and talking about 50% of the population ... at least not right.
  11. Ratmir_Ryazan
    Ratmir_Ryazan 18 January 2018 21: 27
    +1
    What nonsense in the article ?!
  12. iouris
    iouris 18 January 2018 22: 07
    0
    We live at a loss. But not all. Some have huge margins.
  13. Sergeant71
    Sergeant71 19 January 2018 02: 20
    0
    Oh, author ...
    Simcher and Podolyak - brothers forever!
    The quintessence of delirium.
    1. sapporo1959
      sapporo1959 20 January 2018 19: 01
      +3
      Why nonsense? Indeed, judging by the average Russian salaries and pensions, we have nothing in common! By the way, the Prime Minister also hinted that there is no money, but you are holding on to it. But with such a volume of gas and oil sold, it would be better for the Prime Minister to keep silent about the lack of money. But since he is Putin’s friend, he can therefore bear this without any consequences since we don’t change horses at the crossing.
  14. Romey
    Romey 19 January 2018 10: 09
    +3
    Quote: user
    [quoteWhen gas and oil run out, LLC RF goes bankrupt along with Gazprom and Rosneft.]


    When the rush demand for Cardiff coal ended, England did not go bankrupt, well, Thatcher had just privatized the mines, though it had been 50 years after that, and before that it had made quite good money like Gazprom. For some reason, no one on this occasion tears his hair on. . . . . . (you can choose a place yourself). [/ quote]
    Of course no one tore up there. And why? And because in Britain, coal exports have never been the main source of budget! Or, in any case, England never depended on fluctuations in commodity markets, unlike guess who. There was much to be done with this coal inside the country right up to the scientific and technological revolution of the 50-60s. This is clear?
  15. turbris
    turbris 19 January 2018 18: 07
    0
    Yes, of course, the author is a powerful "expert", it is even surprising that he does not know that in modern conditions no one will sell anything at a loss, we have capitalism. Under socialism, it was possible to lower the directive and sell it, something cheaper for political reasons, but all the same then the losses were written off at the state expense. Well, state-owned companies, but maybe Lukoil is trading at a loss? Some kind of nonsense, the person is clearly "off topic", and therefore does not deserve our attention anymore.
    1. iouris
      iouris 20 January 2018 12: 36
      0
      Quote: turbris
      in modern conditions no one will sell anything at a loss, we have capitalism

      Who has capitalism? Do not make us funny.
      The main thesis of the article is correct: there are “price scissors”, therefore raw materials trading
      and energy is not a loss trade, but a type of prostitution. A prostitute does not want and does not know how to do anything other than trade herself. She may even enjoy it, but she pays herself for food.
    2. zyzx
      zyzx 21 January 2018 10: 15
      0
      There is such an old capitalist trick called, nationalization of losses and privatization of profits.
  16. oracul
    oracul 22 January 2018 07: 56
    +1
    It turns out that not only girlish memory is short, but also among some experts. We (the older generation) have already gone through a lot of what they are broadcasting: either oil and gas remain for 25-30 years, then enough for 100 or more years. We have huge costs in comparison with the Saudis and Emirates, or it seems that the difference is not so great. We are a raw materials appendage, and this contradicts Marx. Mankind does not stand still: new technologies come, technology improves, the structure of consumption changes, but the population of the Earth also grows. Against this background, raw materials and natural resources (water, arable land) should objectively rise in price, because their reserves are not unlimited. However, politics is increasingly interfering in the matter. The countries of the golden billion ruled by the Anglo-Saxons do not want to compromise on their standard of living, and they not only try to live according to Marx - a product of industrial processing is more expensive than raw materials, but to stake out this position forever, even in the conditions of an increasing shortage of raw materials and resources. True, they are ready to do this, first of all, by force. It’s easier and more familiar - skills have been preserved since colonial times. And not only. There are economic methods, the main of which is globalization. All of these WTOs, the IMF, SWIFT, exchanges with speculative investments, cryptocurrencies, etc., backed up by the armed forces allow this to be done. The ideal life scheme for the golden billion - I print pieces of paper (dollars, euros) for which I buy raw materials, and cheaply, I myself produce equipment, machines, devices that are expensive, for the population of both my countries and the whole Earth I produce new ones, but in essence colonial goods - household appliances, incl. localizing its production in third countries. And we live happily ever after. Offhand - not just fair, but even sort of like Marx. But life, fortunately does not stand still, I have not said, everything will pass, this will pass. It is only a pity that it will not do without human sacrifice until the countries learn to listen to each other and to do something mutually.
  17. iouris
    iouris 22 January 2018 13: 31
    0
    Quote: oracul
    new technologies come, technology improves, consumption structure changes

    Where has it been seen so that the technologies themselves go, and why then does the US impose “sanctions”? Sanctions are introduced to control the circulation of technology, the structure of consumption and the population. For some reason, all the most necessary technologies are patented in the USA.
  18. iouris
    iouris 22 January 2018 13: 36
    0
    Quote: oracul
    will not do without human sacrifice until the countries learn to listen to each other

    And above you mentioned Marx. So, you know that Marx, in his main work (Capital), analyzed the capitalist mode of production, substantiated the law of the polarization of wealth and poverty, and thereby revealed a tendency for the development of modern civilization. There is a country today, but tomorrow it is not, and capital is eternal. This is value bringing surplus value.
  19. Thomas the Unbelieving
    Thomas the Unbelieving 25 January 2018 18: 48
    0
    Simchera is a serious man, not without reason he was the director of the Research Institute of Rosstat. Nobody has yet refuted his analysis of the development of our economy over the past 100 years. And the materials cited by him in the post are very serious, look at the country's balance of payments, it is published by the Central Bank. And about oil and gas Simcher is not the first and not the last. Many of these issues are still Mendeleev D.I. raised. But the main problem is not the price, but the fact that we take out real material values ​​on credit, which is officially shown in the balance of payments. In return, we get only promises, which for some reason we call money. Therefore: the more we export goods, the fewer they remain in the country. But then the money, the demand for these goods is growing even if part of the proceeds is used by our "effective owners" for a sweet life abroad. Therefore, in our country, prices are rising not depending on export prices, but depending on how many we need to export abroad in our country. Nowadays, when money is simply a debt obligation of a certain state, only illiterate people can brag about the export of their goods. The United States therefore lives at the expense of the whole world because it imports more goods for domestic consumption than it exports. Only woe-economists can moan that they have so bad a trade deficit.