The attempt to shake the situation in Iran failed, but the course towards destabilization will continue. The protests that swept the country in late December - early January, Western politicians and the media tried to present in the form of a “popular uprising”. In fact, we are talking about a well-planned operation based on the basic mechanisms of "color" revolutions.
"Peace protest" with weapons in hand
In the last days of the old and the first days of the new year of the main world news began to protest in Iran. They began on December 28, when in Mashhad and a number of other cities in the north-eastern province of Khorasan-Rezavi there were demonstrations caused by an 40-percent increase in the prices of eggs and some other products. The very next day, local first protests spread to many other provinces and cities. Changed not only the geography, but also the content of the rallies. They sounded criticism of the domestic and foreign policy of the authorities. With undisguised pleasure, the Saudi, Israeli and Western media outlined in video slogans like “Death Rouhani!”, “Death to Russia!”, “Leave Syria, think about us!”.
However, journalists greatly exaggerated the scale of the speeches. Their participants numbered in the hundreds, rarely in the thousands. According to estimates of the Iranian Ministry of Internal Affairs, the total number of protesters for all the time was 42 thousands. In a clear minority were also supporters of radical views. On the records it is clear that provocative calls are shouting out groups of 20 — 30 people. It is not surprising, therefore, that, having set out to demonstrate the scope of events, a number of world media preferred to resort to the tried and tested method of manipulation. Iranian protesters were either protesters in Bahrain, or participants in much larger pro-government rallies in Iran itself.
Finally, the myth of the strictly non-violent nature of the speeches collapsed very quickly. "Peaceful" protesters began to smash shops, banks and attack law enforcement officers. In the city of Nejfabad, one policeman was killed by gunshots, three were injured. Another group of "peaceful" protesters attacked the security forces in the city of Piranshehr, killing three of them. During the arrest, the attackers seized machine guns, grenades and uniforms of the Iranian armed forces.
A mob attacked the police station in Kahdahridhan, trying to seize weapons. Six attackers were killed by response fire, which the “free” media were quick to include among the victims of the “dictatorial regime”. On the border with Iraqi Kurdistan, several batches of smuggling weapons were detained. They tried to smuggle him into the cities where the protests continued.
Such incidents leave no stone unturned in the blissful picture of the “public discontent”. Of course, the economic situation in Iran is far from ideal. The government of Hassan Rouhani conducted an audit of many social programs of its predecessor - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In particular, government support for low-income citizens has been reduced. Unemployment remains at a fairly high level (10,7 percent). By the way, the presence of problems recognizes the president himself. In a televised speech after the start of the protests, Rouhani promised to analyze all the criticisms and draw the appropriate conclusions.
However, there are no signs of a serious crisis in Iran. According to the human development index, the country is ahead of its neighbors, including, for example, Turkey. According to Western experts, by the middle of the century the Islamic Republic will become the 17 economy of the world, ahead of Italy, South Korea and a number of other major economic powers.
So to call the main reason for the demonstrations the despair of ordinary people is wrong. More plausible is a different picture of events. Local peaceful performances, really caused by rising prices, were used by destructive elements to exacerbate the domestic political situation, provoke bloodshed and possible external interference. This is, we recall, the classic scenario of all the “color” revolutions: relying on the dissatisfaction of citizens with individual parties to the socio-economic situation and masking their true plans, to demolish the state foundation. At one time, we went through the same thing, when “unknown” Vilnius snipers came for miners' strikes, and then Tankswho directly shot the House of Soviets in Moscow ...
Masters of secret operations
Evidence that the attempt to destabilize the situation in Iran was coordinated from abroad, a lot. But before we answer the question: why did Tehran collide with it right now? The past year was a success for his foreign policy. In Iraq and Syria, the main forces of the "Islamic State" *, whose main targets were Iranian interests, were defeated. As a result of the victories, the land corridor that linked Iran to the Mediterranean coast was cleared. Now Tehran can return to large projects such as the construction of a gas pipeline and the railway, frozen after the start of the Arab Spring. As Hassan Rouhani stated in a recent telephone conversation with Bashar Assad, Iran will continue to support the Syrian government and is ready to participate in the country's reconstruction projects.
Riyadh’s attempt to blow up the situation in Lebanon failed by pushing pro-Iranian forces into the Sunni community. Tehran's influence is growing in Palestine. On December 27, Hamas, Hezbollah and Hashd Shaabi (Iraqi Shiite militia) agreed to set up a coordination committee to jointly oppose Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Iranian diplomacy very skillfully uses the differences in the Arab camp. At the end of November, a trade agreement was concluded between Qatar, Iran and Turkey. His goal is to facilitate the transit of goods between countries. Thus, the blockade of Qatar, introduced by Saudi Arabia, with the help of which the kingdom tried to punish the rebellious emirate, is collapsing.
The defense potential of the Islamic Republic is being strengthened. In September, it became known about the successful testing of a new Khorramshahr ballistic missile with a flight range of up to two thousand kilometers. Iran’s missile program causes teeth to gnash at its opponents, but, as Defense Minister Amir Khatami stated, the country's military power will develop regardless of pressure from the United States.
Trying to weaken Tehran, Washington and its allies do not go into battle with a raised visor. As US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson mentioned in June last year, the United States will support in Iran “elements that can help in changing the regime.” “We know that these elements, of course, exist,” he added. At the same time, information appeared about the creation of a special operational center under the CIA, whose tasks include the collection and analysis of intelligence about Iran. Michael d'Andrea, an expert in secret operations, has been appointed as its head.
The continuation of this strategy was the agreement concluded on December 12 in Washington by the head of the Israeli National Security Council Meier Ben-Shabat and national security adviser Herbert McMaster. The parties agreed to create four working groups for “diplomatic and secret work” aimed at deterring Iran’s missile program and limiting its presence in the region.
A vivid example of subversive work was the conference of the so-called Iranian Democracy Council. On November 18, representatives of dissident organizations gathered in Cologne, Germany, who decided to form a coalition for a “non-violent political transition” (read: coup) in the Islamic Republic. As noted in the joint statement, “regime change is a top priority, which can be resolved using all methods of peaceful struggle, including acts of civil disobedience, civil uprising and other necessary means of protecting the rights of Iranian citizens.”
The value of the conference lies in the fact that it has revealed all the basic mechanisms that use and will use the master of secret operations. First, it is an attempt to inflame the separatist movement. Documents of the Iranian Democracy Council constantly state that the authorities of the Islamic Republic have established a regime of national oppression. In contrast, dissidents are calling for decentralization and the creation of a “pluralistic federal republic.” Also important is the fact that most of the organizations gathered in Cologne spoke on behalf of the national minorities of Iran: Kurdish, Azerbaijani, Lur, Arabic and others.
Secondly, in the resolutions of the conference, propaganda clips are repeated over and over again about the corruption of the Iranian leadership and about using the country's national wealth to finance the “bloody” wars in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen instead of increasing the welfare of their own people.
Masks ripped off
All these points, as if stripped from one training manual, appeared during recent protests. For example, in the form of slogans “Leave Syria!” Or “Not Gaza, not Lebanon - my country is Iran!”. In addition, attempts to provoke unrest in areas with predominantly Lur (Province of Lurestan), Azerbaijani (Hamadan), Kurdish (Kermanshah) and Arab (Khuzestan) population were obvious.
Opponents of Iran responded to the performances instantly, which also proves the planned nature of the events. Already 29 December, the US State Department made a tough statement. The Iranian authorities were accused of "having turned a rich country ... into a depleted rogue state, whose main export commodities are violence, bloodshed and chaos." “We call on all countries to openly support the Iranian people and their demands,” the State Department said.
And this is just one example of blatant interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. The White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders called the protests "a popular uprising organized by courageous Iranian citizens," and US Vice President Mike Pence promised to give "great support" to the Iranians, "if they continue to fight for freedom and reject radical ideology." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who promised friendship to the Iranian people, "when the regime finally collapses" could not remain silent either.
In verbal escapades, the propaganda clichés now and then looked through. “Iranian citizens have been fed up with corruption and squandering of national wealth in order to finance terrorism abroad,” Trump wrote in his Twitter feed. Leading Western media have actively joined the anti-Iran campaign. “The Iranians have a choice between guns and butter. We have to push them to the right future, ”wrote the British“ Times ”.
However, the calculations to destabilize Iran failed. Since December 30, pro-government demonstrations have been held in the country — much more extensive than opposition rallies. The most massive demonstrations took place on 4 and 5 in January.
Law enforcement agencies of the Islamic Republic have disrupted the masks from the organizers of the speeches. According to Attorney General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri, the conspirators, supervised by the aforementioned Michael d'Andrea and funded by Saudi Arabia, wanted to implement the Libyan scenario. Thus, in the province of Lurestan, a citizen of one of the EU countries was arrested, organizing protests.
Most likely, the Iranian intelligence was able to learn in advance about the planned riots. December 27 - the day before the speeches - the top leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, at one of the meetings touched upon the theme of “soft war” against Tehran. "Thousands of false means are working against the Iranians to make them frustrated and lose confidence in the state," he stressed, adding that the purpose of the conspiracies is to incite political, religious and national hatred.
But the attacks on Iran will not stop. At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, convened on January 5 at the request of Washington, US Permanent Representative Nikki Haley threatened Tehran with tough measures. "The United States will openly support those who want to find freedom in Iran," she said. And Secretary of State Tillerson announced the adoption of a special law that would make changes to the nuclear agreement concluded in 2015. It will tighten the requirements for Tehran, including the issue of the missile program. In turn, CIA Director Michael Pompeo told 7 in January that the protests in Iran did not end. Reiterating the mantra that the “theocratic regime” takes away freedom from people, he noted: “The Iranian people do not want this. I expect the Iranians to continue to revolt against the government. ” Seeing Iran as a dangerous rival, the Pompeo office and other American structures will make every effort to destroy a strong and successfully developing country.