Military Review

Is the handle of the Syrian suitcase strong? About the preparation for the Congress in Sochi

29-30 January in Sochi, the Congress will host the Syrian national dialogue. The main goals that the organizers of the actual congress of the Syrian national and religious movements set themselves are to find a compromise for the ATS to go from a protracted military conflict to the political process - while maintaining territorial integrity, democratic (without any sarcasm) elections, the creation of a constitution, reflecting the interests of each of the ethnic and religious groups living in Syria.

In general, the goals are good, but for all their goodness, it is hardly necessary to assume that the Sochi Congress on Syria will pass without friction. Syria has too many “friends” (from the so-called Geneva format) ... And even more “friends” from Russia. And the plans of these “friends” clearly do not include any positive results of the Syrian meeting in Sochi, if only for the reason that any positive things there could be more proof of Russia's successful foreign policy in the Middle East.

Means, will spoil? As the saying goes, a no brainer that they will ... And not only militarily. In the information too. We already saw the military information plan from "friends" in the photo of the results of the attack at the Russian airbase in Khmeimim - attacks with the help of handicap-looking drones with a very advanced e-filling. The very fact of this attack became literally a balm for the soul for those who continue to make statements from the series: “Putin said that the terrorist ridge in Syria has been broken. So where is this breaking of the terrorists' ridge? ”

But in fact, you need to be very naive to find that the Russian authorities seriously consider the Syrian deal done and expect 100% breakthrough in Sochi for January 29-30 in January under the prevailing conditions. Because the beginning of the Congress carefully prepared. And prepare with an understanding of the specifics of the situation. And the specificity in the unfading principle, according to which a kind word and a pistol make it possible to achieve more than just a kind word. If only diplomacy is used and only the Ministry of Foreign Affairs tries to help official Damascus to have representatives of all ethnic groups, confessions, clans and groups sitting at the round table of negotiations, then write to them. The specificity is such that without a force factor, they do not intend to perceive any diplomacy in the Middle East. They cannot, do not know how, and they will not allow them to be perceived, even if the “intra Syrian” parties themselves strongly want it.

So which gun is loaded before the Sochi meeting? In fact, here it would be necessary to use the term not “charged”, but “discharged”, and it is discharged in those who decided to arrange a kind of terrorist enclave in Idlib, as well as sites for “self-development” in the province of Damascus, plus at the borders of Israel and Jordan ... Those same de-escalation zones, in which de-escalation at least somehow showed itself, until Russia announced a victory over ISIS (* prohibited in the Russian Federation) and the withdrawal of a significant part of the contingent from the SAR. As soon as these "theses" were proclaimed, the bearded boys, excuse me, flooded out of all the cracks. They took the position of the Syrian troops in the south into the ring, carried out a series of attacks on the territories controlled by the SAA in Latakia, fired historical center of Damascus, launched a swarm of shock drones from Idlib at the base of the Russian Aerospace Forces "Khmeimim" (also Latakia), intensified in the south of Aleppo province, carried out a series of attacks in Hama. The list goes on.

With such a "baggage" to sit at the negotiating table on a political settlement worthless. But the sponsors of the bearded boys will do everything to ensure that the situation on the Syrian fronts remains under considerable tension until 29 January.

In this situation, the only way out is to inflict militants on clusters, which in the morning are moderate opposition in white helmets, and in the evening “al-Nusra” (*) and other “al-Qaeda” (*), preventive strikes so that ”(That part of her that decides to survive) by itself there was a desire to speak and negotiate. And these blows are applied. The Syrian army squeezes out everything that can be squeezed out and moving daily under the friendly howl of terrorists and their fans about what, they say, is impossible here, “peaceful people, peace zone, and peace in general”.

The Abu Dukhur airbase, which since 2015 has been controlled by the “moderates” from the Dzhebhat al-Nusra (*) group, has been taken under control. Compresses the vise in the south of the province of Aleppo. Both of these successes make it possible, if I may say so, to correct the Turkish traffic in Idlib and reach negotiations, having additional trumps in front of Turkey as well.

Is the handle of the Syrian suitcase strong? About the preparation for the Congress in Sochi

Syrian government troops issued an ultimatum to the militants in Harast, Jobar, Ain-Tarme with the requirement to lay down weapon. By the way, these territories, as well as the main part of Idlib, are controlled by the very forces that had previously declared their categorical unwillingness to go to negotiations with the “Assad regime” in Sochi. If we take into account that ultimately the CAA ultimately with the help of the Russian Federation intends to implement, not in words but in deeds, then the categorical reluctance of the mentioned “gentlemen” can be replaced by a burning desire to talk in Sochi about the peace process.

However, taking into account all the nuances of the current period, it comes to mind that even if the clip for “bearded boys” is defused seriously, then there may be a variant of what happened, for example, in Georgia in 2008. The thing is that the whole operation can stop at that very moment when only one step remains before its confident and successful completion - the same option to stop “for fifty kilometers to Tbilisi” ... Although, as in that song, “we don’t it is given to you to understand ”... what are the ultimate goals of Russian participation. In the end, the East is a delicate matter. The main thing is that this thin does not break again. And so that the Syrian question does not become for Russia a suitcase without a handle.
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  1. Vard
    Vard 12 January 2018 15: 07
    In such cases, you can force them to choose worthy ones themselves .. At the same time, they will weed themselves in the process ...
  2. tracer
    tracer 12 January 2018 16: 53
    Syria will be torn apart for a long time by external and internal forces
  3. vadsonen
    vadsonen 12 January 2018 17: 11
    And so that the Syrian issue does not become for Russia a suitcase without a handle.

    The "foreign policy genius" won in Eastern Europe (NATO expansion), then won in Georgia and in the territory of U (which left the Russian influence). Then he won in Libya (where Russia lost all investments). Now, behold, is going to win in Syria.
    1. allaykbar
      allaykbar 12 January 2018 21: 05
      Do you really think that a response from Russia will not come for this?

      My country spun more than one empire on its kukan. And the kirdyk will come to you. Because they contacted the wrong ones

      In the meantime, of course, enjoy the success in expanding Nata at the expense of the Balts and Ukrainian Cossacks.

      And they were already turning it. By the way. It was called differently, but the essence is about the same
  4. flicker
    flicker 12 January 2018 17: 30
    "Fifty km to Tbilisi"

    And what then should we have taken Tbilisi?
    1. Stas157
      Stas157 12 January 2018 17: 40
      Quote: flicker
      And what then should we have taken Tbilisi?

      Of course not! Why do we need Tbilisi! Better to leave him in the Western sphere of influence! This is exactly what Medvedev thought after many hours of meeting with Sarkozy. And the destroyed Tskhinvali had to be rebuilt by Moscow instead of the defeated Georgians.
      What has Moscow achieved with its "Compulsion to Peace"? A small click on the nose of the hostile Saakashvilli regime? Which for some reason, despite the defeat, remained in power, and did not sit on the dock!
      1. flicker
        flicker 12 January 2018 20: 00
        Better to leave him in the Western sphere of influence

        What kind of influence are we talking about? About financial? Then let them depend on the west.
        Well, they took Tbilisi, what's next? The people hate us, what impact can we have?
        Would you flood them with money?
        Now they are financially dependent on the West (read the United States), the West is sooooo much disappointed in them, they lost too quickly and easily (the West expected the Georgians to fight like Chechens), and the West financed them very generously - now the West finances them minimally ( maybe someday you will need it).
        On the other hand, the Georgians are terribly angry at the west - he forced them to start a war as a result of which they legally lost their territories, although they promised them military assistance. As a couple, they threw it.
        What's in the dry residue: the West is responsible for the financial well-being of Georgia, which practically does not support them, now many Georgians are beginning to understand (albeit slowly, but still) who is their friend and who is their enemy, and who is so.
        Conclusion - the West practically lost to Georgia.
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 12 January 2018 22: 26
          Quote: flicker
          Well, they took Tbilisi, what's next?

          To judge Saakashvilli, as the West did to Milosevic. Hold free elections and elect about the Russian president. See what the West is doing. Look what the USSR was doing. This is the answer to your question. Then to force the Georgians to rebuild at their own expense, and not as now for the Russian, destroyed Tskhinvali.
          Quote: flicker
          the west is sooooo very disappointed in them

          Did you come up with this yourself? The West can only be disappointed in itself if it hasn't raised its vassal well enough.
          Quote: flicker
          What's in the dry sludge: the West is responsible for Georgia's financial well-being

          Why, suddenly? Who imposed this obligation on him? When was the West responsible for someone?
          Quote: flicker
          On the other hand, the Georgians are terribly angry at the west - he forced them to start a war as a result of which they legally lost their territories, although they promised them military assistance. As a couple, they threw it.

          Such is the fate of all limitrophes, to be ultimately thrown. I don't see any contradictions.
          Quote: flicker
          Conclusion - the West practically lost to Georgia.

          Seriously? Georgia that is already in the zone of Russian influence? You amaze with your findings.
          1. flicker
            flicker 13 January 2018 01: 22
            See what the West is doing

            Not everything should be copied from the West.
            force Georgians to recover at their own expense

            They largely survive at the expense of relatives who work outside Georgia.
            So their "account" is more than modest, therefore, to restore at their expense, it means not to restore. The only thing we can achieve in this way is to set the simple Georgian people against ourselves, and they will again be forced to turn towards the West.
            And now they are terribly disappointed in the United States.
            The West can only be disappointed in itself

            You just need to convince the West of this
            Georgia that is already in the zone of Russian influence?

            It is written that the West lost Georgia, but nothing is said about Russia.
            1. Mih1974
              Mih1974 13 January 2018 06: 54
              I agree - they would soon get just "Georgian Banderism". It is a pity, of course, that they did not turn up the sukashvilli, but this pepper "works" as no our agent. He is, in fact, a living scarecrow, from the sight of which he throws the leaders of Russia's neighboring countries into profuse sweat - no one wants such a fate under any circumstances, therefore, they will resist under any pressure and will not go to war against Russia.
              As you rightly pointed out, the occupation of Georgia would lead to rasskods in ALL Georgia, and so only to "a small piece" of South Ossetia. It was shown to everyone that you can do whatever you want with yourself, WE will not feed more (so that you would not chat about the USSR inside your countries). negative And gradually in the republics of the former USSR comes a "severe hangover" = with all the independence "to do what I want", now you have to plow yourself to "eat". Americans do not pay for beautiful eyes, contrary to all expectations, the Chinese hide behind their smiles a ruthless desire for dough and try not to "feed" but "buy out" the country (and who is ready to sell his entire country once, and Power? :)). And the "generous glum russkiye" for some reason stopped feeding and in general some kind of "evil".
              And I suspect that the "example of the United States" will come back to haunt them so terribly (like an example of an ambassador torn alive and burned to death in Libya) that no one will ever cite them as an example. Whatever they write about the "evil Russians", but "not love" to the Americans is widespread and this is already beginning to be recognized in the United States, and what is much more terrible is not to blame the "evil USSR" and the communists for this. tongue
              1. flicker
                flicker 13 January 2018 09: 53
                It is a pity of course .... but this pepper "works" as no our agent.

                What are we talking about. If they were "pulled up" (which, of course, he deserved), then they would get some other national hero who suffered for the interests of Georgia. And now he has become, simply speaking, a homeless person and a Ukrainian-Georgian laughing stock: now on the roofs, now on the tents, then he scolds the giblets on whatever the light stands, then he writes conciliatory letters to him, before that he ate appetizing ties ... now everyone was able to appreciate the true scale of this " politician "... the best demotivator of American foreign policy is even hard to imagine winked
            2. Foxmara
              Foxmara 13 January 2018 07: 51
              But now the Georgians themselves are quite supportive of us. They are calling for a visit. I communicated personally. My brother went there and was satisfied.
  5. Evgeniy667b
    Evgeniy667b 13 January 2018 05: 35
    As long as Russia is pouring funds and resources into Syria, they are with us, but when this flow weakens, everything may be different. Our tasks are different, so just on the way.