Iran: thoughtful bluff or empty hat?
Iran continues to systematically "turn off" Europe from the supply of its oil. Recently, the Greeks did not find Iranian oil revenues first, and then Iran’s anger spread to Spain. Iranian leaders say that the next European countries that will stop receiving hydrocarbons from the Islamic Republic will be Italy and Germany. Earlier, Tehran has already leveled oil supplies to France and the British Isles. Thus, Iran is “ahead of” those sanctions that it was about to actually impose on the European Union this summer. Recall that the sanctions were aimed at forcing Iran to abandon its nuclear program, in which certain countries of the world see a threat to their own security. However, Iran decided to demonstrate that sanctions of this kind can in no way affect the decision of the Iranian authorities to continue research in the field of nuclear energy. This state of affairs is also confirmed by the fact that Iranian President Ahmadinejad, in one of his recent speeches, said that the country can live two or three years absolutely comfortably, even if it stops selling oil at all. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is confident that the accumulated gold reserves of Iran will be enough to overcome any external pressure.
Let us try to figure out whether the words of the Iranian president are true, or Ahmadinejad is simply disingenuous and bluffing through the cessation of the supply of oil to Europe, hoping that the Europeans will be the first to fall.
For this you need to touch a few things. First, how much oil did Iran deliver to the beginning of its hydrocarbon demarche to the European Union? Secondly, what the Iranian financial system as a whole is made of today. Thirdly, does Iran have the potential for a long amount of time to keep the current situation at a position that is acceptable to itself?
We will follow the intended path. So, according to the data of Iranian statistical organizations themselves, as well as according to OPEC, as well as the EU, until recently Iran’s exports to the EU countries were about 20%. Translating all these percentages into monetary units, I must say that this is about 14,5 billion dollars a year. At the same time, the remaining share of Iranian oil sales in the world market is more than 57 billion dollars. The total Iranian annual GDP is, according to various estimates, from 920 to 950 billion dollars. It turns out that the income from oil exports to Europe is no more than 1,4%. Of course, this figure should not be neglected, but it is also a stretch to call it strategically important for the Iranian economy.
By and large, nothing prevents Iran from making a very elegant move and selling oil to the same Europeans in a different way. For this it is quite possible to use, for example, Turkmenistan, which adheres to a fairly neutral policy towards Iran and does not suffer from a “nuclear” hysteria. Further, Iranian oil under the guise of Turkmen can flow through its own channels either to Russia or directly to the West. It is obvious that it will be extremely difficult or impossible to prove the fact of the resale of Iranian oil.
Perhaps that is why Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not wait for the start of the European sanctions, but shut off the valve on his part first. Indirectly, this fact may be the reason that Tehran has a promising option associated with the supply of oil not sold directly to Europeans to other countries, which may well dispose of it at their discretion: if desired, and the possibility - to the same Europeans to “drain” it.
In this connection, a rather interesting picture emerges: Iran has been reducing the supply of oil to Europe, while oil is not only not increasing in price, but also getting cheaper, which we can observe lately, although no one in the world seems to be going to reduce its total purchases. Words are words, and the need for oil supplies for industrial needs has not yet been canceled. It turns out that Ahmadinejad managed to find an acceptable buyer for the very oil that he had stopped supplying directly to the EU. And the words that Iran can live without the export of hydrocarbons in general can only be a cover for new trade areas that Iran cultivates.
If so, then European sanctions will indeed look ridiculous for Tehran. The world today has managed to undergo large-scale globalization, so the interweaving of trade flows can be used much more efficiently than European officials think.
Another question is whether the very 14,5-billion-dollar purchases of Iranian raw materials will “pull” the same Turkmenistan so that it can be realized at its own discretion. If we talk about direct calculations, then, naturally, no. On the other hand, the People’s Republic of China can really afford to “purchase” Iranian oil to fill its strategic reserves. For modern China, 14,5 billion dollars a year is purely symbolic. Russia, by the way, can also "master" a certain percentage of "liberated" Iranian oil, laying out the necessary amount for it. Naturally, both China and Russia will seek (or have already achieved) Iran’s purchase of oil at reduced prices, but today such conditions for Tehran can be a good fit. By the way, not so long ago, the purchase of Iranian oil was discussed at a meeting of representatives of the authorities of Iran and China, where Beijing made it clear that it intends to continue cooperation with Iran under conditions of some discounts on black gold. Of course, it is possible to consider this as a kind of Chinese blackmail, but it is better for Iran to lose a couple of hundred million dollars a year at a “discount” for China than all the 14,5 billion on the real overlap of a crane to Europe.
In this situation, the Iranian economy is certainly little that threatens ...
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