Military Review

How to avoid a war in Korea?

66
The situation on the Korean Peninsula is close to a military denouement, but the parties to the conflict are not yet ready for a compromise. Meanwhile, a similar crisis around the atomic program of Taiwan was successfully resolved in the beginning - mid 1970-s, and without the participation of the UN. First of all, thanks to a clear understanding in Beijing, Washington and Taipei of the consequences of the military actions of the PRC against Taiwan with the United States.




The background to the events is as follows. After the evacuation of the Kuomintang authorities and military units from mainland China to Taiwan and a number of adjoining Chinese islands (1949-1950) as a result of the civil war, the Republic of China on Taiwan (KDT) was proclaimed, which was threatened by the PRC . The Taiwan authorities, who had already received military-political support from Washington in 1950, decided to create their own atomic weapons. These works were accelerated after successful tests in the People's Republic of China of the atomic bomb in 1964 and the hydrogen one in 1967. In the same period, the PRC began to actively develop missile weapons and conduct their tests, moreover not far from the Taiwan Strait.

Back in 1961, a research nuclear reactor was installed at 2 MW at the Tsinghua National University of Technology and Technology in Taipei. Three years later, the Taiwanese leadership sanctioned R & D to develop nuclear and missile weapons as part of the 7-year program implemented by the National Institute of Science and Technology and the Scientific-Research Institute of Atomic Energy (it was created as early as 1960). In short, the military-political tension between Beijing and Taipei at that time was becoming dangerous. Especially in connection with the excesses of the notorious Cultural Revolution in the PRC, the US war in Vietnam and Taiwan’s attempts to conclude a military alliance with the Philippines, Thailand, South Korea and South Vietnam against the PRC.

Recall that the same political allies of Taiwan already had treaties on mutual defense with the United States.

So the conflict could well be transformed into a region-wide, and with the use of weapons of mass destruction. And the Taiwanese nuclear program was due to serious reasons, like the current one in North Korea.

Today it is also, firstly, the chain of large US military bases in South Korea and neighboring Japan, which, according to Pyongyang, has atomic weapons, and secondly, the growing presence of the US Navy in areas adjacent to the DPRK ... But back to the above Taiwanese R & D.

These research structures included all the main components for the production of atomic bombs: the commissioning of a heavy water reactor, the construction of a plant for the production of heavy water, a laboratory for the radiochemical processing of irradiated nuclear fuel and the release of plutonium. The total cost of such a program was, according to some estimates, at least 140 million dollars. At the same time, Taiwan received scientific and technical assistance from the USA, Canada, France, Israel and South Africa. Say for 1968-1974's. more than 300 Taiwanese nuclear specialists have been trained in the United States.

During the negotiations, representatives of the United States and China in Warsaw in 1958-1971. Beijing in 1967 made it clear that it could use any weapon against atomic objects in Taiwan. However, the growing tension on both sides of the Taiwan Strait was also due to the fact that at that time the "random" bombardment by the US Air Force of the southeast coast of the People's Republic of China adjacent to North Vietnam (DRV) became more frequent. Beijing, as you know, provided a variety of assistance to the DRV and through its territory transit of military goods to North Vietnam and to Laos from the USSR, Mongolia, the DPRK and most Eastern European socialist countries was carried out.

In the meantime, construction of a heavy water reactor with a capacity of 1969 MW on natural uranium imported from Canada began in the Taiwan Atomic Energy Research Institute in 40. And the French profile company Saint-Gobain Nucleaire supplied a laboratory facility for the separation of plutonium to 1967. As a consequence, the People's Republic of China in those years resumed shelling of the coastal islands controlled by the “Chinese Republic in Taiwan” and notified the United States of its intention to prevent the possession of Taipei atomic weapons. The calls to “liberate Taiwan!” Were at that time among the main themes of dazibao (agitplakatov of the times of the Cultural Revolution).

Obviously, for the United States, defeated both in South Vietnam and in Laos, there was no reason to be drawn into the conflict between Taipei and Beijing.

Moreover, the Americans hoped to take advantage of Beijing’s confrontation with Moscow. Therefore, in 1970, Washington’s representatives in the Warsaw talks with their PRC colleagues indicated their position as follows: The US will begin withdrawing its military bases from Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait Islands, stop regular patrols of the strait and disavow the Taiwan nuclear weapons program. In turn, Beijing was asked to pledge not to use military force against Taiwan and to minimize the deployment of weapons of mass destruction near the strait. China agreed to such a "barter".

I must say that the implementation of these measures, the United States began in the late 1960-x. Not without pressure from the Americans 1 July 1968. Taiwan signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and 27 January 1970-th completed all the procedures for ratifying the Treaty. Guarantees regarding non-military use of atomic energy by Taiwan are provided for by two IAEA agreements with Taiwan, which are in force with 13 in October, 1969 and 6 in December, 1971. There are three of them on the island today).

Similar agreements of the DPRK with the United States predetermined the signing by North Korea of ​​the NPT in 1985.

But Pyongyang came out of this treaty in 2003, according to the North Korean government, in connection with "... a serious situation in which the sovereignty of the Korean nation and the security of the DPRK are violated as a result of the hostile US policy towards the DPRK."

Because unlike Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait, from where the US military bases were evacuated to 1972-1975, the presence of all United States military branches near the DPRK continued to increase and is still increasing.

And yet, in April, 1973 launched a heavy-water reactor in Taiwan, as the authorities did not hope - especially after the visit of US President R. Nixon to China in February 1972 - for Washington’s unconditional assistance in case of invasion by Chinese troops. Note that similar, if, in fact, not similar reasons, lie at the heart of the North Korean protective measures. The most important of these reasons emerged at the turn of the 1980-1990-s: the official recognition by Beijing of the South Korean state; the termination of the Soviet-North Korean Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance (1960) in view of the dissolution of the USSR; reinforcement of the South Korean troops in the vicinity of the inter-Korean demarcation line; repeated refusals of the United States to replace the armistice agreement (1953) with the permanent peace agreement between Washington and Seoul with Pyongyang. Therefore, Pyongyang already from the middle of 1990-x, like Taipei in 1970-x - the beginning of 1980-x, reduced the amount of information transmitted to the IAEA, complicated the conditions for inspection by experts of the agency of atomic and related facilities.

In the meantime, experts from the MGATE in 1976 have discovered experiments in the military sector in Taiwan with unaccounted 500 grams of Taiwanese plutonium in Taiwan. As a result, under pressure from the United States and the IAEA, the island’s authorities officially announced in September 1976 (shortly after the funeral of Mao Zedong) that they would abandon military developments in the nuclear field. But the final cessation of patrols by the US Navy of the Taiwan Strait with 1978 and the official recognition of 1979 by the United States PRC in January, with the simultaneous breaking of official US-Taiwan diplomatic relations, became new incentives for reanimation of the Taiwan atomic weapon program. In particular, construction of hot cells for the separation of plutonium began at the Institute of Atomic Energy in 1987.

Such a situation called into question increasingly favorable trends in the political and economic relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China.

Therefore, the IAEA and especially Washington have made every effort (including in the field of trade and investment cooperation between the US and Taiwan) for the final termination of the Taiwan nuclear program.

This had an effect: in 1990, the authorities of the “Chinese Republic in Taiwan” officially abandoned this program. The heavy water reactor, located at the Institute of Atomic Energy, was stopped in the first half of 1990's and then dismantled.

It is worth recalling that the relaxation of tension between Taipei and Beijing contributed, along with the factors mentioned, to the evacuation of 1972-1974. US atomic weapons from their military bases in Taiwan and on islands in the Taiwan Strait (located there since 1958). But today, the DPRK government claims that such weapons, firstly, are preserved at military bases of the United States and in South Korea and in Japan. Second, they are owned by the US Navy and Air Force, which have already settled near North Korea. Therefore, its authorities, shall we say, are now implementing the "plans of Taiwan."

To summarize: the full relaxation of tension between Beijing, on the one hand, and Taipei and Washington, on the other, was based on compromises: the withdrawal of US military bases, incl. American atomic weapons from the Taiwan region; Washington's diplomatic recognition of the PRC; US rejection of political and economic blocking of mainland China. Beijing, in turn, abandoned military reunification with Taiwan, demilitarized its coast of the Taiwan Strait and the adjacent region, including weapons of mass destruction. It was within such a framework that the pressure on Taipei with a view to ending the nuclear program proved successful. Apparently, an equally comprehensive approach is also required in the North Korean conflict. As evidenced by recent experience storiesfirst of all, direct negotiations between Washington and Seoul with Pyongyang are needed.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.stoletie.ru/territoriya_istorii/kak_izbezhat_vojny_v_koreje_101.htm
66 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. 210ox
    210ox 31 December 2017 06: 13
    11
    I agree with the author. There is no need for haste and especially provocations. Only the world has since become different and the world is ruled by force. And so far we have little to oppose. I consider it a mistake of our leadership to join the sanctions against the DPRK.
    1. Esoteric
      Esoteric 3 January 2018 06: 31
      10
      Quote: 210ox
      I consider the mistake of our leadership to join the sanctions against the DPRK.

      I consider our leadership a mistake in the choice of the people, because one cannot pretend to be blind for the actions of our obvious enemies and remain deaf to the requests, even if former, but friends ...
      1. siberalt
        siberalt 3 January 2018 06: 36
        +4
        What kind of war is there if the DPRK has gathered for neighbors at the Winter Olympics, and Trump is pleased with the sanctions? lol
      2. Slavon2000
        Slavon2000 3 January 2018 23: 26
        +2
        Friends .... that life has not taught to feed all rogue people
        1. long in stock.
          long in stock. 5 January 2018 08: 02
          +2
          but why did you decide that someone fed them? They feed themselves themselves, and moreover, successfully regardless of the fence they were fenced off. They calmly build turbines for hydroelectric power stations and large vessels, which we stopped building by the way and buy over the hill every time we buy or arrest ... or are you afraid for your gesheft?
          1. Slavon2000
            Slavon2000 7 February 2018 21: 08
            0
            Who is it? Korea?
            It was they who fenced themselves in the literal sense! So that people would not run away ....
            1. MOSKVITYANIN
              MOSKVITYANIN 7 February 2018 22: 49
              0
              Quote: Slavon2000
              Who is it? Korea?
              It was they who fenced themselves in the literal sense! So that people would not run away ....

              Israeli Jews were yelling about the USSR, and now former Soviet Jews who sold their homeland are building up Jewish Jews here, if you weakly jump over the fence to sit where you are sitting ...
              1. Slavon2000
                Slavon2000 9 February 2018 12: 06
                0
                They sold their homeland))) .... you are a clown, why should I wave through their fence? You can’t say anything about the case, and you’re talking nonsense ...
                1. MOSKVITYANIN
                  MOSKVITYANIN 9 February 2018 20: 26
                  0
                  Quote: Slavon2000
                  They sold their homeland))) .... you are a clown, why should I wave through their fence? You can’t say anything about the case, and you’re talking nonsense ...

                  Clown is it you tell your dad, if he is still alive, if he did not teach you polite communication ...
                  1. Slavon2000
                    Slavon2000 10 February 2018 17: 52
                    0
                    I speak the same language with you ... politeness and you are two polar things
    2. dSK
      dSK 3 January 2018 06: 38
      +7
      Hello Dmitry!
      Quote: 210ox
      I consider the mistake of our leadership to join the sanctions against the DPRK.
      Aggressive buildup by the States of their presence on our border will change this. At the end of December, a delegation of the Russian Defense Ministry was in the DPRK.
    3. aKtoR
      aKtoR 3 January 2018 07: 18
      12
      Sanctions are visibility from our side. Willingness to compromise and not to give our country to the evil empire within the framework of world public opinion. But this does not mean support for the policy of amers in this region.
      DPRK for China is a buffer in a military conflict between them and the Americans.
      1. Krasnyiy komissar
        Krasnyiy komissar 3 January 2018 09: 47
        10
        It is better to be an empire of evil and a mordor than terpils. By joining the regime of sanctions against the DPRK, we spat in our faces! I am against the emergence of new nuclear powers, but Western policy forces all independent countries to arm themselves.
        1. aKtoR
          aKtoR 4 January 2018 10: 39
          +2
          In politics, unlike the criminal world, there is no Terpil concept. There are concepts profitable or not profitable. At the moment, participation in the sanctions is beneficial for the Russian Federation.
          Personally, my opinion is that we did not spit in the face. We remain so far away from the conflict.
          You have your opinion - this is your case.
    4. Maki Avellevich
      Maki Avellevich 3 January 2018 07: 45
      +1
      Quote: 210ox
      Only the world has since become different and the world is ruled by force.


      "What was, it will be; and what has been done, it will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun."

      Kohelet (Book of Ecclesiastes)

      author - possibly king Shlomo (Solomon)
  2. HEATHER
    HEATHER 31 December 2017 06: 48
    +2
    Eun is playing in vain. It makes us and them angry. Either bluffing or really has something. Not everyone is telling us. Yes, and we will not wait for this.
    1. Same lech
      Same lech 3 January 2018 06: 31
      18
      Eun is playing in vain. It makes us and them angry.


      Do not play out. smile
      Eun achieved his goal and now he will not repeat the fate of Gaddafi.

      The Americans are forced to reckon with the presence of nuclear weapons at UN ... so that there the State Department would not threateningly say directly to attack North Korea, the United States now has a small intestine.
      The USSR had exactly the same situation in the 50s, which was threatened with destruction in the event of a nuclear attack by the United States ... this must always be remembered ... (as they say against scrap there is no method if there is no other scrap).
      the main source of danger on our planet is not Eun or Assad ... but the USA with its irrepressible thirst for power over the whole world.
      1. Slavon2000
        Slavon2000 3 January 2018 23: 28
        +1
        The people of northern KOREA will definitely not get any worse if Una overtakes the fate of Gaddafi ... it’s a pity only the southerners oh and they will have to tight up feeding their half-wild, rogue relatives
        1. KaPToC
          KaPToC 3 January 2018 23: 43
          +6
          Quote: Slavon2000
          half-wild beggarly relatives

          Another value system, the cattle of the golden calf adherents do not understand it.
          1. Korax71
            Korax71 5 January 2018 17: 14
            -1
            That's what I look at, and that our system of values ​​is different. Everything is directly torn to do something useful for the country, each has a portrait pu hanging in the corner, specially malnourished and sleep deprived, just to raise the defense potential ??? they didn’t guess. the vast majority wants to eat well, sleep sweetly, sometimes breed, sometimes bring bones to the sea. And there are parsley in the DPRK, but there’s only one misfortune. If you think that the value system is different there, then take an interest in how many 20 years have fallen from there? You will not find data anywhere, only because you can only pull it illegally.
            1. KaPToC
              KaPToC 5 January 2018 17: 49
              +2
              Quote: Korax71
              there’s such parsley in the DPRK, but there’s only one misfortune. the people don’t know what is good to eat, sleep

              But the people of Iraq, Libya, Yugoslavia know, or rather knew.
              Quote: Korax71
              take an interest how many 20 years have fallen from there

              This is the result of the actions of the Americans, the North Korean government is not to blame for the low standard of living.
              Before the Americans started the war, Koreans lived pretty well.
              1. Anyone
                Anyone 5 January 2018 22: 55
                0
                Quote: KaPToC
                Before the Americans started the war, Koreans lived pretty well.

                This is a joke, I hope. After the end of World War II, Korea was one of the poorest countries in the world with an exclusively agricultural economy. In 1948, Korea had almost 50% of the unemployed population ... And yes, the rest of the Koreans lived "pretty well"))
                1. Slavon2000
                  Slavon2000 10 February 2018 18: 06
                  0
                  But what to speak with him. Already one thing that this one uses Western technology suggests that he is a crafty liar!
        2. long in stock.
          long in stock. 5 January 2018 08: 04
          0
          wash your ears from propaganda .. and learn to think for yourself.
        3. Ehanatone
          Ehanatone 5 January 2018 14: 36
          -1
          Slavon2000
          What a supreme test Crocodile Tears!
    2. Esoteric
      Esoteric 3 January 2018 06: 38
      +9
      Quote: VERESK
      Eun is playing in vain. It makes us and them angry.

      Who are we? Us - these are those for whom everything is "honestly accumulated-earned" in ... "not Russia"? Or those of us - who have all the known types of pasta hanging on their ears? We ourselves must already decide on which side to play. Probably enough to be singing along with the bastards. At least one thing to bring to the logical end, and not hang out, like some objects in the hole. You cannot be good both yours and ours ...
  3. thinker
    thinker 3 January 2018 06: 23
    +1
    ... we need direct negotiations between Washington and Seoul with Pyongyang.
    As for me, so the third extra (USA)
    South Korea invited North Korea to hold high-level talks on January 9

    https://russian.rt.com/world/news/466518-yuzhnaya
    -koreya-kndr-peregovory
  4. Knowing
    Knowing 3 January 2018 06: 29
    +2
    Tu-yu, belatedly however: "DPRK leader Kim Jong-un announced that he is going to send a delegation to the 2018 Olympics, which will be held from February 9 to 25 in Korean Pyeongchang. In the New Year’s address, the head of state expressed hope for improved relations between the countries." Of course, if the "main democratizers" of the planet do not interfere with all their provocations.
    1. Maki Avellevich
      Maki Avellevich 3 January 2018 07: 50
      +2
      Quote: Knowing
      Tu-yu, however, belatedly: "DPRK leader Kim Jong-un announced that he was going to send a delegation to the 2018 Olympics


      when Kim spoke he was wearing a jacket with a tie and glasses.
      it is on the one hand a gesture towards the west that says - you can agree, I took off my tunic.
      in parallel, this may also indicate that the Juche ranks falter and they need a compromise more than the west.
      somehow it looks like the confrontation is drawing to a close. (or the end is drawing near)
      1. Esoteric
        Esoteric 3 January 2018 07: 56
        +2
        Quote: Maki Avellievich
        in parallel, this may also indicate that the Juche ranks falter and they need a compromise

        You are talking about Yun’s compromises and trembling in the ranks of Juche will be remembered when you begin to equip the American embassy in the new capital. Yes ... prepare military tunics ... belay
        1. Maki Avellevich
          Maki Avellevich 3 January 2018 10: 54
          +1
          Quote: Esoteric
          You will remember about Yun’s compromises and trembling in the ranks of Juche when you begin to equip the American embassy in the new capital


          the capital of Nakh will be older than others, but on the topic is hto express?
  5. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 3 January 2018 06: 54
    +7
    And I believe that the DPRK is a Chinese project. China now is not profitable to enter into an open struggle with the United States. But weaken the authority of the "light elves". So they threw Eunu of technology ... It is possible that not directly ...
    And the news about oil transshipment on the high seas ... Why? They have a large border with DPRK by land.
    Throw the pipeline, one - the other wassat
    1. Mih1974
      Mih1974 3 January 2018 08: 23
      +3
      So I think in the light of the raving screech of the State Department about "the supply of oil to the DPRK by Russian tankers" fool . Yes, we have a direct border, there we can lay the wrong pipeline, we can "drown" the DPRK in oil or gasoline lol .
  6. aKtoR
    aKtoR 3 January 2018 07: 15
    15
    First of all, we need a unified position of the PRC and the Russian Federation on bewildering the aggression on the part of the Americans. The Chinese comrades declared back in the fall that if the DPR hit the Americans, they would be left out. If the Americans strike, China will help North Korea.
    1. To be or not to be
      To be or not to be 3 January 2018 10: 18
      +1
      For the United States to start a war, they need a reason. DPRK has nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. There is no reason for war.
      Provocation? What. When and where?
      tongue -This is from the President of a great power frivolously!
      1. long in stock.
        long in stock. 5 January 2018 08: 06
        +2
        Is this when they needed a reason? remind. as history shows, if the US needs a reason, they just create it ..
        1. aKtoR
          aKtoR 6 January 2018 06: 57
          0
          Exactly. If you really need a reason, then you can blow up the battleship "Men", substitute your naval base in December 1941, blow up the twin towers, etc., that the public is not known ...
  7. aszzz888
    aszzz888 3 January 2018 07: 26
    +3
    Say, for the years 1968-1974. More than 300 Taiwan nuclear experts trained in the United States.

    ... and maybe Werner von Braun gave them lectures ...
    1. Igor V
      Igor V 3 January 2018 15: 21
      0
      And what is he, a specialist atomic scientist ?! belay
  8. Jack O'Neill
    Jack O'Neill 3 January 2018 07: 50
    +5
    Abandoning our nuclear program, starting to behave normally with our neighbors, then the sanctions will be lifted!
    Although in the case of the DPRK, things are not so simple ... In their Gos.stroy, you simply cannot allow the appearance of sources of external information so that people do not ask questions, which means whether you want to or not - but your mode will be closed! Well, or the anger of the people who ofigeget from the comparison, when he sees the difference.
    But you can not leave everything so! But what to do? And the FIG knows ...
    Let me just say that the DPRK needs to do what it cannot do because of its internal policy. They have driven themselves into a corner ...
    1. Esoteric
      Esoteric 3 January 2018 08: 03
      +1
      Quote: Jack O'Neill
      Abandoning our nuclear program, starting to behave normally with our neighbors, then the sanctions will be lifted!

      How does this resonate with:
      I. Suspend the membership of the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) in the IOC with the immediate entry into force of the decision.
      VII. The IOC reserves the right to take measures and sanctions against individuals associated with the system.
      Viii. OCD will offset the costs incurred by the IOC in connection with the investigations and will contribute to the establishment of the Independent Testing Authority in the amount of US $ 15 million in order to build capacity and enhance the credibility of the international anti-doping system.
      IX. The IOC may partially or fully reverse the decision to remove ROC from participation in the Closing Ceremony of the Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympics, provided that these decisions are fully complied with by the ROC, invited athletes and officials.
      X. IOC will issue practical recommendations for implementing these decisions.

      And, if you just give in the face, then the legs themselves will carry in the opposite direction ... belay
    2. Wolf 1
      Wolf 1 3 January 2018 08: 50
      +5
      Gaddafi once abandoned the nuclear program, what it led to - everyone saw.
    3. To be or not to be
      To be or not to be 3 January 2018 10: 29
      +5
      After the reprisal against Hussein and Gaddafi, the world and the leaders who might face their fate wiser.
      You do not remember who and how killed the leaders of these states? And who watched the live broadcast especially for them and laughed ..
      Of course. You can believe the words and assurances of the us and the west-Yanukovych believed ..
      Not . forget .. ONE-leader .. North Korea and make an unforgivable mistake he has no right.
      What to do?
      GDP has already been proposed - it will first stop and not provoke the situation with exercises in the region. This is a simple first step. USA and did not do it ..
      So .im need CHAOS in the underbelly of the Celestial Empire ..
      1. Amurets
        Amurets 3 January 2018 11: 16
        +3
        Quote: To be or not to be
        So .im need CHAOS in the underbelly of the Celestial Empire ..

        And chaos in the south of the Far East of Russia.
    4. alstr
      alstr 3 January 2018 18: 48
      +1
      Unfortunately, but the DPRK will not stop its nuclear program because the US has violated its obligations. In the 90s there was a moment when, in exchange for the cessation of the then still peaceful nuclear program, the United States pledged to supply a certain amount of FREE petroleum products as fuel for power plants. BUT, oil became expensive and the United States immediately lowered these agreements to the toilet.
      QUESTION: what normal person after that will believe the USA and conclude any agreements? The question is literary.
    5. long in stock.
      long in stock. 5 January 2018 08: 16
      0
      did not try to read? but in vain .... there was an agreement to refuse to replace oil supplies and the lifting of sanctions. So, the United States did not give a damn about the agreements and did not fulfill its promises. The result of the first nuclear crisis was the signing of a framework agreement on October 21, 1994 between the DPRK and the USA, which provided for the freezing of all Pyongyang’s nuclear activity and the supply of fuel oil to the DPRK during the construction of an LNR nuclear power plant there, at the final stage of which the DPRK should resume full fulfillment of its obligations under the safeguards agreement with the IAEA. The Koreans offered to close their program in exchange for a peace agreement with the United States. The United States refused. ..so what to say with cliches from the liberal press without thinking ... maybe all the same start to think for yourself?
    6. MOSKVITYANIN
      MOSKVITYANIN 6 January 2018 02: 20
      0
      Jack O'Neill Abandoning our nuclear program, starting to behave normally with our neighbors, then the sanctions will be lifted!

      Tell it to Iran ...
      But you can not leave everything so! But what to do? And the FIG knows ...

      In such cases, they say, shut up for the clever, get off ...
      I can only say that the DPRK needs to do what it is impossible to do in view of its own domestic policy.

      Well, yes, the USSR has already done this once, where is it now, where are you from the USSR?
      They drove themselves into a corner ...

      The United States and Co. will understand that they themselves have been cornered when the DPRK makes an atmospheric nuclear explosion in the Sea of ​​Japan for the sake of experiment and tells who is next, let's see how the US WB will be deployed in the Asia-Pacific region ...
      Goodbye comrade ml l-nt with an English name and an Irish surname, gee ... laughing
  9. Rostislav
    Rostislav 3 January 2018 08: 04
    +3
    No way out yet. Americans comply with contracts only when it is beneficial to them. The author correctly noted that at that time they were being chased in Vietnam and they could not get one more slap in the face in Taiwan.
    Now the situation is different - the Yusovites need to be shown strength, especially against the backdrop of Oblomingo in Syria, so you should not expect concessions and, especially, compliance with the agreements.
    1. karish
      karish 3 January 2018 08: 33
      +3
      Quote: Rostislav
      No way out yet. Americans comply with contracts only when it benefits them

      Strange you say. about S. Korea - which deceived everyone secretly developed nuclear weapons (while in the NPT)
      For which it is under sanctions approved by the Soviet Union without Russia, including Russia.
      1. Wolf 1
        Wolf 1 3 January 2018 08: 48
        +3
        as if the Jews did nuclear weapons with the permission of the world community.
        1. Maki Avellevich
          Maki Avellevich 3 January 2018 10: 57
          +2
          Quote: Wolf-1
          as if the Jews did nuclear weapons with the permission of the world community.


          and who did nuclear weapons "with the permission of the world community"?
          who was allowed?
        2. karish
          karish 3 January 2018 11: 32
          +6
          Quote: Wolf-1
          as if the Jews did nuclear weapons with the permission of the world community.

          non-NPT countries - this is not prohibited.
          Teach materiel.
          1. Wolf 1
            Wolf 1 3 January 2018 13: 01
            +2
            Koreans withdrew from the treaty in 1993 or 1994. The first nuclear explosion was fired in 2006. What is the problem?
            1. Maki Avellevich
              Maki Avellevich 3 January 2018 13: 14
              0
              Quote: Wolf-1
              Koreans withdrew from the treaty in 1993 or 1994. The first nuclear explosion was fired in 2006. What is the problem?

              as if the Jews did nuclear weapons with the permission of the world community.

              here I ask
              1. Wolf 1
                Wolf 1 3 January 2018 13: 21
                +1
                Ask your fellow tribesman, who was offended by the Koreans, because they did not warn anyone about the development of nuclear weapons.
                1. Slavon2000
                  Slavon2000 3 January 2018 23: 31
                  +1
                  Do you and your fellow tribesmen need nuclear Korea? Southerners live and work for themselves and live normally, unlike their northern relatives.
                  1. Wolf 1
                    Wolf 1 4 January 2018 05: 24
                    +1
                    Need or not need - a separate question. In any case, they did not cause any particular problems for us or the Chinese. Let them live as they want.
                    1. MOSKVITYANIN
                      MOSKVITYANIN 7 February 2018 22: 52
                      0
                      Quote: Wolf-1
                      Need or not need - a separate question. In any case, they did not cause any particular problems for us or the Chinese. Let them live as they want.

                      So I say, the DPRK does not cause problems for its neighbors - the Russian Federation and the PRC, and poor Israeli Jews who are thousands of kilometers from the Korean Peninsula yes ...
      2. KaPToC
        KaPToC 3 January 2018 23: 56
        +1
        Quote: karish
        which tricked everyone

        Ah ah, deceived the deceivers. People without honor have no right to reproach others with dishonesty.
  10. cannabis
    cannabis 3 January 2018 11: 12
    +2
    On the world map, North Korea is a three-year-old child in a sandbox who scoops sand and screams. The baby wants attention. And now adult uncles and aunts are seriously discussing ways to deal with this baby. Yes, you praise the baby and go about your business, baby and calm down, he got his way. Or have uncles and aunts completely lost their minds and are going to share the sandbox?
  11. Kostadinov
    Kostadinov 3 January 2018 11: 20
    +1
    How to avoid a war in Korea?

    This is already clear. Strengthening North Korea’s nuclear retaliation potential and the war will never be.
  12. Lexus
    Lexus 3 January 2018 15: 05
    +4
    The weak are beaten, the fools are also robbed ... Koreans have learned this lesson.

  13. tosha.chuhontzev
    tosha.chuhontzev 3 January 2018 23: 25
    +1
    US rejection of the political and economic blockade of mainland China. Beijing, in turn, refused military reunification with Taiwan, demilitarized its coast of the Taiwan Strait and the region adjacent to it, including weapons of mass destruction. It was within such a framework that pressure on Taipei to end the nuclear program proved successful. Apparently, an equally comprehensive approach is required in the North Korean conflict. As the experience of recent history testifies, first of all, direct negotiations between Washington and Seoul with Pyongyang are needed.

    As I understand it, North Korea must abandon nuclear ambitions, and the United States is committed to withdrawing its 55th contingent from South Korea. Unfortunately, this will not work, although it is very logical.
  14. Old26
    Old26 4 January 2018 16: 10
    +2
    Quote: The same LYOKHA
    Eun achieved his goal and now he will not repeat the fate of Gaddafi.

    Comrad. He has not achieved anything yet. Do you seriously think that with a dozen of its warheads and a couple of missiles can stop the United States if they decide to punish the DPRK? Moreover, Americans are deeply indifferent to whether South Korea and Japan will remain intact. The potential is incomparable

    Quote: The same Lech
    Americans are forced to reckon with the presence of nuclear weapons at UN ... so that there the State Department would not threateningly say directly to attack North Korea, the United States now has a small intestine ..

    If there is a solution, they will attack. Moreover, they will do all this so that Eun is the first to strike. At the same time, they will preserve their face - “they are victims of an attack with the use of nuclear weapons,” guaranteed to ensure that the PRC “does not fit” for the DPRK (remember what the Foreign Minister of the PRC said). And the loss of one or two million "allies", together with a thousand of their fighters from North Korean Yao, will only give all this an aura of struggle against the "devil of hell" who decided to start a nuclear war. so do not think that in the case of a really serious threat to their interests and specifically to their loved ones, they will have a thin gut to attack the DPRK ...

    Quote: The same Lech
    The USSR had exactly the same situation in the 50s, which was threatened with destruction in the event of a nuclear attack by the United States ... this must always be remembered ... (as they say against scrap there is no method if there is no other scrap).

    American plans against the USSR are one thing. The real arsenal of the USA at that time was completely different. And do not forget that the USSR in its power is still not North Korea ...

    Quote: Mih1974
    Yes, we have a direct border

    Yeah. Down the river. To the border from the nearest oil pipeline, Koreans’s buckets make oil drag? Or, following your secret order, they already stretched a thread of an oil pipeline there, so that we were ready to “fill in” oil with it?


    Quote: To be or not to be
    For the United States to start a war, they need a reason. DPRK has nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. There is no reason for war.
    Provocation? What. When and where?
    tongue -This is from the President of a great power frivolously!

    Yes, elementary. Any provocation that will push UN on the application of nuclear weapons first. There may be dozens of options. Offhand.
    U.S. intelligence recorded work on preparations for a new launch at the DPRK missile test site. It would also be desirable if it were not particularly large. American ships (plus Japanese and South Korean) are advancing to the approximate launching direction. Located outside the territorial waters. But do not start the exercises. A missile test launch in that direction leads to the launch of the “Standards” from several destroyers. The rocket has not yet gained height at which it cannot be hit, so it will be shot down. The Americans accuse the DPRK leadership of deliberately launching (provoking) a missile in the direction of the US naval group. Do you think Eun will "swallow" such that the Americans shot down his rocket or take some action against the Americans or their allies? Even if it does not strike directly at the United States, although bases in Japan will be within reach, the United States will, according to its allied obligations, assist its allies who have been attacked. All conditions are met:
    1. Launching missiles in the direction of warships of other countries, which is perceived as an act of attack. Rocket shot down
    2. Eun is the first to strike at US allies and the USA (with a small number of BGs, it makes no sense to spend them against allies). The PRC as a result of "withdrawn from the game," since Eun started first.

    Well, then rolling out a country with the potential that the South Caucasus, Japan and the USA have is not difficult. The main losses will be suffered not by the Americans, but by their allies.
    One of the options. There can be a lot of them. If the task is set, they begin to plan and work it out


    Quote: aszzz888
    Say, for the years 1968-1974. More than 300 Taiwan nuclear experts trained in the United States.

    ... and maybe Werner von Braun gave them lectures ...

    what An intern nuclear scientist lecturer rocket? Original
    1. long in stock.
      long in stock. 5 January 2018 08: 23
      0
      Well, then rolling out a country with the potential that the South Caucasus, Japan and the USA have is not difficult. The main losses will be suffered not by the Americans, but by their allies.
      One of the options. There can be a lot of them. If the task is set - they begin to plan and work out - so it seems like it was already like this? In the year 47-49 ... how did it end to remind? And there were many more allies ... not everything is so simple in this world ..
  15. acetophenon
    acetophenon 5 January 2018 17: 29
    0
    How to avoid war? First of all, you need to figure out: who was going to fight. Well, on the list:
    America - yes, definitely.
    North Korea - yes, if it is attacked.
    South Korea - yes, but really does not want to.
    Japan is not at all.
    China - it seems that it will not, although it hints at the opposite
    Russia-will do everything so that it is not dragged.
    Conclusion. The US wants war. Do not just bend Eun, namely war. So there will be a war.