Military Review

Bloomberg tales of how Russia will fall apart

61



I understand that now, on the eve of the New Year, various forecasts should be considered with a great deal of skepticism. In addition, they are written explicitly on order and no one really cares about their sales. However, one topic that is constantly being thrown into the media is already so fed up that it’s time to put a fat non-original point.

So, in the opinion of the American edition, thanks to the future sharp fall in oil prices, Russia will begin big internal problems. And just at the end of the next presidential term of Vladimir Putin.

Due to the mass production of cheap electric cars, the volume of daily oil production will fall. At the same time, the price of raw materials will remain at $ 50 per barrel. In 2020, the price of oil will drop to $ 40 per barrel by the end of the year. In 2021, the price of oil will fall to $ 20 per barrel, which will most strongly affect Riyadh and Moscow, and Russian unrest will begin to riot. In 2024, the economic crisis will begin in Saudi Arabia, the Middle East will be politically unstable, and in Russia, Vladimir Putin will leave the presidency and try to rule through Elvira Nabiullina, who now occupies the post of chairman of the Central Bank. The price of oil in the meantime will fall to $ 10. In 2028, Saudi Arabia will refuse to create a city of the future, and OPEC will be disbanded.


In general, it seems to me that Americans do not understand the main thing. They still believe that Russia can be brought to its knees with the help of oil prices. Meanwhile, life and statistics have already shown that from the low prices of oil, the states themselves are more likely to bend.

Here is a very interesting graph of the contribution to the change in GDP of its various components:



As we can see, during economic crises, the main factors of GDP growth are becoming the main factors slowing the economy. And since the US GDP every year more and more depends on the level of personal consumption of citizens and the gross investment level, it turns out that first of all it is the United States that cannot afford long economic downturns. Since in this case their entire economic model collapses.

No, if you arrange such a crisis so that everything is bad, and the US is good, that is, a big war in Eurasia, then it is a different matter. But by itself, the crisis today is more dangerous than the States, and every year this danger only grows.

And now a few words about electric cars. Yes, you can indulge yourself with the illusion that oil prices will collapse not due to the global economic crisis, but for other reasons. For example, due to the introduction of electric vehicles, energy saving, wind turbines and the installation of solar panels on each house. But just this is deception. Electric vehicles do not need relatively little fuel in their pure form in the gas tank, but in much larger volumes, since any power plant has its own efficiency, which is far from 100%, and, as has already been proved, all these WES and SES are nothing more than a toy for suckers That is, the fascination with electric vehicles, on the one hand, of course, will simplify the work of energy workers (smooth daily consumption), but on the other hand, will increase the demand for base load, and hence the fuel for its generation.

I think this is all clear. Now back to Russia 2020-21's. I am sure that I will not be much mistaken if I suppose that all this time the course towards liberating the country from economic dependence on the West, in which it has landed in 1990, will continue. The formation on the basis of the Chinese economy of a new global economic system will be completed. This will drastically weaken the United States and strengthen the economies of Eurasia, which will enter it. Oil and other goods within this system will not be sold for dollars, but rubles and yuan. During this time, the Russian economy will be less and less dependent on the hydrocarbon leaving. Today, this trend can not see only the blind, and then it will become even more obvious. For clarity, we impose a graph of Russia's GDP and oil prices.

For convenience, everything is denominated in dollars.

Bloomberg tales of how Russia will fall apart


Before 2007, oil prices grew faster than Russia's GDP, and hence its share in this GDP grew. 2007 to 2012 the cost of oil and the economy of Russia grew in unison, and since 2013, the Russian economy as a whole has grown faster than oil prices, and this difference has become increasingly evident over the past few years. And then everything will be even more noticeable.

So, we see that Russia confidently and at an ever accelerating pace is getting rid of its oil dependence. Every year, the collapse of its economy by low oil prices is becoming less and less realistic. On the contrary, it is the US economy that, paradoxically sounds at first glance, increasingly depends on the state of the world economy, and hence the price of hydrocarbons. And this means that if all of a sudden (which is unlikely) the Bloomberg forecast for oil prices comes true, then Russia will be just bad, and the United States will be very bad. And, most likely, not the workers of Russian factories, but their American colleagues will go on strike. Rather, those "white-collar", which will take a significant part of their khalyavnogo petrodollar pie.
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  1. inkass_98
    inkass_98 27 December 2017 06: 41 New
    +4
    How much can this topic be procrastinated? It was necessary for the agency to show that they were not in vain sitting out their pants, they were paying analysts, and so they issued a new forecast type. And the masses in response rushed together to convince each other that this stickiness is not worth the paper on which it is printed. Actually, this is what the Bloomberg workers sought - to create circles in the swamp.
    1. dSK
      dSK 27 December 2017 14: 36 New
      +9
      Quote: inkass_98
      Bloomberg workers
      they did not take into account yet another factor against low oil prices - China and India, for which cheap energy is like "manna from heaven." To support the rapid economic growth of China, designated enemy number 1 for the United States, is very fraught. hi
      1. dog breeder
        dog breeder 28 December 2017 10: 35 New
        +4
        Easy to count. Roughly, In 2014, in June, the dollar was worth an average of 34 rubles, oil, the highest price of 112 dollars per barrel. multiply, it turns out for a barrel 3808 rubles. take today's course, multiply, it turns out 3808, with a penny. So what?
      2. verner1967
        verner1967 28 December 2017 11: 31 New
        +2
        Quote: dsk
        against low oil prices are China and India, for which cheap energy is like "manna from heaven."

        What is it like? Bees versus honey? Or is oil not an energy carrier?
  2. ImPerts
    ImPerts 27 December 2017 06: 57 New
    +7
    We'll see. Will China bring Nefteyuan to market or not? If this happens, then a few years will begin the fun times of world hegemons ...
    And I heard that Russia managed to sell LNG to the Saudis. If so, then it's fun times wassat
    1. dog breeder
      dog breeder 28 December 2017 10: 37 New
      +4
      Yes, have a contract. They say that it’s like serving Siberian snow to the Alaskan Aleuts. And they also sent a gas carrier loaded with small brittam.
  3. zyzx
    zyzx 27 December 2017 07: 06 New
    10
    and starting in 2013, the Russian economy as a whole grew faster than oil prices --------------- Well, the fact that it grew seems to be known only to the charts. And on the topic of the article, I certainly agree in many ways. My humble opinion, the future is in hybrids, and electric cars are show-offs. Plus, oil is such a valuable product that it’s easy to burn the barbarism of higher harm.
    1. dog breeder
      dog breeder 28 December 2017 10: 39 New
      +2
      you are right, I think that in the future, something more valuable than fuel will be made of carbon.
      1. Antares
        Antares 31 December 2017 00: 17 New
        +2
        Quote: dog breeder
        something more valuable than fuel.

        food, materials and products have long been made
  4. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 27 December 2017 07: 15 New
    +7
    Russia, or rather, Rosatom is also trying. Russia is freed from dependency - yes this is an eternal problem. The most important dependency is to calculate everything in dollars. That's how we stop - and ladies.
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 28 December 2017 19: 00 New
      +3
      Why worry?
      From the point of view of personal consumption, there are no problems: warm, light, full of food. Without caviar and iPhones, we won’t die. There is no reason to panic AT ALL! Even if the oil runs out at all, the firewood is full, more than in the SA. In Russia, it makes no sense to invest heavily in renewable energy, except in regions where it is very expensive to deliver fuel.
      No need to feel sorry for Russia (and yourself), you have to believe in it. And we need to systematically equip to live more comfortably than anywhere else. All personally!
      1. Antares
        Antares 31 December 2017 00: 19 New
        0
        Quote: Victor N
        In Russia, it makes no sense to invest heavily in renewable energy, except in regions where it is very expensive to deliver fuel.

        in progress even inhibition is death.
  5. passing
    passing 27 December 2017 08: 18 New
    10
    Oil and other goods inside this system will not be sold for dollars, but for rubles and yuan

    Then the Central Bank of Russia will transfer rubles into dollars and buy US securities wassat Victory!
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 28 December 2017 19: 06 New
      0
      If you don’t want it in dollars, transfer it to RMB, pounds, Tugriks .... But you cannot live without reserves, even the smallest family, even a bachelor. And to keep only gold will not work. Reserves and US bonds are a dumb topic for marginals, losers and losers.
      1. passing
        passing 28 December 2017 20: 57 New
        +1
        Reserves and US bonds are a dumb topic for marginals, losers and losers.

        Why, when the yard would have ... no arguments, insults begin? You do not know? hi
  6. groks
    groks 27 December 2017 09: 48 New
    +4
    The dual impression. Do Americans believe that electricity is taken from the outlet? Not all of them are "well stupid." Do they hope for green energy? On the way, can fusion or something more breakthrough? No information.
    In order for the Russian Federation to come down from raw materials, we need to develop our own production and agricultural. It happens? No.
    1. Winnie76
      Winnie76 27 December 2017 14: 17 New
      +6
      Quote: groks
      In order for the Russian Federation to come down from raw materials, we need to develop our own production and agricultural. It happens? No.

      Yes
      1. groks
        groks 27 December 2017 14: 33 New
        +2
        Yes - in the sense of what is needed? Or Yes - in the sense that it is developing?
        1. Sergey Cojocari
          Sergey Cojocari 27 December 2017 19: 21 New
          +2
          Yes, I mean, nevermind! Until they invent the "star battery", they will go on gasoline. Electric cars have not threatened Russia for more than a century, and there are a lot of reasons for this, one of them is roads. Rather, off-road.
          1. groks
            groks 27 December 2017 19: 44 New
            0
            Sobyanin has already promised to plant Muscovites on electric buses.
            1. Siberia 9444
              Siberia 9444 28 December 2017 10: 25 New
              +2
              We in Siberia will definitely not have electric cars for a long time lol
        2. Nikolay73
          Nikolay73 28 December 2017 11: 25 New
          +2
          Yes, in the sense of developing ... and, by the way, pretty well and certainly there is something to strive for.
    2. verner1967
      verner1967 28 December 2017 11: 35 New
      +4
      Quote: groks
      we need to develop our own production and agricultural.

      I don’t know about my own production, but agricultural production seems to be developing. In stores, more and more domestic products. And in the world we have a leading position in the sale of grain
      1. groks
        groks 28 December 2017 13: 04 New
        +1
        And they have long been domestic. Only these domestic ones belong to TNCs by more than half. And so we do not twitch - all the seed material is western.
        The situation with grain is the usual privatization of profits with the nationalization of costs.
        1. verner1967
          verner1967 28 December 2017 19: 34 New
          +3
          Quote: groks
          The situation with grain is the usual privatization of profits with the nationalization of costs.

          here you don’t need smart words here, you either eat grain or they buy it from the USA and Canada, but this year it was harvested more than it was grown under the USSR.
          Quote: groks
          And so we do not twitch - all the seed material is western.

          no need to generalize to all cultures, especially since what does livestock breeding have to do with it? Boars inseminators live in the west?
          1. groks
            groks 29 December 2017 08: 06 New
            +1
            What's so smart about that? It doesn’t matter how much is collected, it is important how much is sold. All of this was subsidized and subsidized. Those. the state invested our money in grain, then the grain was sold for currency. The currency went to private owners - the oligarchs. You can report for any amount, there were already scandals when it turned out that officials in collusion with agricultural oligarchs lifted up the results every 10 times. Officials from this have bonuses, as it turned out.
            The seedlings live exactly in the west. Sperm is being brought to us.

            This is not the first such call at all. At the time of the popularity of corn, we were already trying to suck in its hybrid seeds (which is now called F1). Preby this is Lysenko’s business. For which he suffered.
            1. verner1967
              verner1967 29 December 2017 18: 32 New
              0
              Quote: groks
              You can report for any amount

              and at customs mugs are sitting wassat
              1. groks
                groks 30 December 2017 09: 59 New
                +1
                Not burdocks. Bribe takers. However, their information is not interesting to anyone.
    3. Victor N
      Victor N 28 December 2017 19: 10 New
      +2
      This is exactly what is happening! YES!
      Russia's GDP is growing, albeit slowly, but due to material production, and not due to an increase in the cost of services of lawyers and dentists.
      1. groks
        groks 28 December 2017 19: 16 New
        0
        And why have we begun to produce more material?
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 30 December 2017 13: 27 New
          +1
          Everything from pins to reactors, satellites and rocket engines.
          1. groks
            groks 30 December 2017 15: 10 New
            +1
            All of the above, even pins, miraculously survived the "legacy of totalitarianism." Adjusted for the effectivists. For example, the start of the generator at the NVNPP, at the new power unit, went through with fireworks. The generator is completely changed. And he stands like a new icebreaker. By the way, it’s quite normal for an icebreaker to be launched “on pins”, well, it turns out to be not profitable to use it. Well, on satellites, only the lazy did not trample - the azimuth is not the same (s).
  7. Gardamir
    Gardamir 27 December 2017 10: 33 New
    +6
    In addition, they are written explicitly by order and no one really cares about their marketability.
    the author to himself? Journalists and ministers having sent their children to one of the many houses in the West, are making patriots of themselves. But Bloomberg wrote his report in English and they do not care how their report will be commented on in Russia.
    I mean, unfortunately Bloomberg is right, and all home-grown analysts are putting a price on themselves and the power that they defend.
    1. andrew42
      andrew42 28 December 2017 11: 07 New
      +3
      In part, you can agree with you, in terms of homegrown analysts. But Bloomberg is burning too. Objectivity is neither here nor there. There is a hybrid war, and analysts are fulfilling orders from the parties to this war, adjusting statistics, taking them out of context, and fashioning custom slogans as resumes.
    2. verner1967
      verner1967 28 December 2017 11: 37 New
      +1
      Quote: Gardamir
      I mean, unfortunately Bloomberg is right, and all home-grown analysts are putting a price on themselves and the power that they defend.

      I agree with you, I myself read this article as a fairy tale about New Vasyuki
      1. Victor N
        Victor N 28 December 2017 19: 23 New
        +2
        Sprinkle, pour salt on your wounds, suffer from phantom pains!
        And I have at least crowded, but light and warm, there are snacks, and snacks. And there is someone to enjoy life, albeit a little. And friends do not forget. And tomorrow there will be a day, and again there will be food, and more hamsa - and stellate sturgeon was also, albeit a long time ago. I will try and earn money on caviar, on a new apartment, on a car, on studying for children of themselves! What I wish you
  8. turbris
    turbris 27 December 2017 12: 06 New
    +4
    Quote: Gardamir
    Journalists and ministers having sent their children to one of the many houses in the West, are making patriots of themselves.

    Do you think this is a big loss? Well, let them live in the West, to whom does it bother? This only interferes with the fact that, having left for the West, everyone considers it their duty to speak out about Russia so that no one doubts the correctness of their departure. Well, they bought houses in the West, for what money? This is already a matter for bodies that must deal with theft, if they were. It’s just that rich people appeared in Russia, they always were, but now they have stopped hiding and no matter how much we envy them, we won’t see their money.
    1. viktorch
      viktorch 27 December 2017 16: 57 New
      11
      the problem is that it’s not their money, and every oligarch’s son annealing in a luxury Moscow club or in a villa in Monaco is an unfinished school, hospital, institute, this is a decrease in the quality of medical services in the clinic, this is not a replaced fifty-year-old machine at the factory that will heal Vasya locksmith's hand, etc.
      money from oligarchs, bureaucrats, and hucksters is not made out of thin air - it is always a drain of money from all spheres of life of the rest of the people.
      1. Victor N
        Victor N 28 December 2017 19: 27 New
        +1
        But this is not my money, I don’t need someone else’s.
        And - most importantly - your remark is so far from the topic that it is completely inappropriate!
  9. a.sirin
    a.sirin 27 December 2017 13: 07 New
    +7
    Very poorly a person knows what the economy is, very poorly.
    There is no understanding of how the price of oil is formed, how and how it is traded.
    Some "wishes" of harm to "neighbor"
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 28 December 2017 19: 33 New
      0
      On the contrary, very sound thoughts.
      My word is against yours.
      Face off ranks, qualifications, experience, Hirsams?
      That's right, not worth it.
      How not to categorically declare.
  10. Lexus
    Lexus 27 December 2017 19: 21 New
    +3
    As they say, with whom you will lead ... All the Western media, apparently from their Ukrainian colleagues, have become infected.
  11. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 27 December 2017 23: 48 New
    +4
    The funeral ... My favorites ... But the author, as for me, was estranged from the topic. After all, the conversation began with oil, but ended with GDP. Bloomberg did not declare that our Russian Federation would "bend". He predicted the collapse. And if the author likes to turn to the experience of history, let him show us on a current map such a country as the USSR. And more about electric cars! I advise the author to watch programs about Norway. "Unhappy" country in which you have already read 40 percent of electric vehicles. It bends, straight, without oil ...
  12. Sergeant71
    Sergeant71 28 December 2017 01: 08 New
    +4
    In 2013, there was no longer any economic growth. Worked at that time in state. corporations. More than half of the projects were curtailed, and the high authorities openly said that hard times and for a long time awaited us.
  13. shinobi
    shinobi 28 December 2017 01: 24 New
    +1
    About the forecasts, Or the donkey will die, or the paddies.
  14. kos2910
    kos2910 28 December 2017 10: 49 New
    +3
    well, storytellers .... It would be better to have predicted when Yellowstone babakhnet
  15. Bo Yari
    Bo Yari 28 December 2017 10: 59 New
    +2
    Afftor before writing articles, you would have to learn the economics ... otherwise one is nonsense ..
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 28 December 2017 19: 36 New
      0
      Well, you’ll come to pass the test .....
  16. uhu189
    uhu189 28 December 2017 11: 07 New
    +2
    The author continues to amaze with his inexhaustible optimism. Based on one graph, a global conclusion is drawn about the catastrophic effect of low oil prices on the US economy. My question is: how can low prices for raw materials provoke a collapse of the country's economy with a predominantly manufacturing industry that consumes the same raw materials? The crisis of overproduction will cover, or what? And the failure of 2009 of the year is most likely connected with the consequences of the mortgage crisis in the USA, rather than with the price of oil. Or I'm wrong?
    I would like to remind the author that in spite of low oil prices, the USA did not notice any noticeable changes in GDP, there was no sharp decrease in the purchasing power of citizens, as it happened here, and no one made sequestration of the budget there. But here it somehow turns out that it all happened, and we still cannot recover. Bloomberg certainly thickens a lot of paint, but if we get off the oil needle at such a pace, then we will need 60 for that. And during this time we will lag behind so much that it’s not even funny to talk about a competitive economy. Optimism is certainly good, but when it is in moderation and is not reduced to absurdity.
  17. gen50
    gen50 28 December 2017 11: 25 New
    +2
    CCCP fell apart precisely because oil prices fell to 18 $. Gorbachev simply had no other choice but to bow to the West - there was simply nothing to eat.
    That's the whole story.
    1. Normal ok
      Normal ok 28 December 2017 15: 12 New
      +1
      Quote: gen50
      CCCP fell apart precisely because oil prices fell to 18 $. Gorbachev simply had no other choice but to bow to the West - there was simply nothing to eat.
      That's the whole story.

      Who are you saying this to? Here everyone will eat hats. Well, those who are now throwing others.
    2. Victor N
      Victor N 28 December 2017 19: 40 New
      +1
      Gorbachev and others like him didn’t have enough. Elementary: survived in the 90s with much lower incomes.
  18. sergevonsohrn
    sergevonsohrn 28 December 2017 13: 09 New
    +3
    Bloomberg juggles digital figures, obscure, and sometimes far-fetched .... I want to remind you that in Russia with numbers at all times not everything was safe ... nevertheless, Russia, Russia has existed for a millennium and does not think to die and, especially crumble! Recently, it has rapidly advanced (as it was before) into the leaders of world processes! this is what haunts the whole host of ill-wishers ....
  19. Normal ok
    Normal ok 28 December 2017 15: 11 New
    +1
    Bloomberg tales of how Russia will fall apart

    Damn, why objective facts are perceived as "fairy tales." At the beginning of the 90's, not only the Chechens wanted to leave Russia, but also the Tatars and so on. and so on, up to certain areas. When the oil is 20, everything will be repeated.
    1. BABAY22
      BABAY22 28 December 2017 16: 02 New
      +3
      Do not wait. You will not be so happy.
      So sit and scribble your evil postings against Russia. Anyway, they’re not capable of anything else. Wait for directions and handouts from Uncle Sam.
      And where were you, Ukrainians, when Russia took its Crimea from you? This is how many percent of your territory at the same time you profiled? And the whole world has de facto recognized that Crimea is Russia. Well, there are formally sanctions, back and forth, so as not to lose face ...
      Can you imagine that some of our eastern neighbor takes and joins the entire Russian Far East? No? And rightly so, because such a neighbor will live as long as missiles fly from their starting positions to that neighbor’s chair.
      Someone is given to live, someone is to serve, and someone can only serve.
      1. Victor N
        Victor N 28 December 2017 19: 43 New
        +1
        Right in the eye!
        Could make friends.
      2. Antares
        Antares 31 December 2017 00: 28 New
        +1
        Quote: BABAY22
        And rightly so, because such a neighbor will live as long as missiles fly from their starting positions to that neighbor’s chair.

        during internal showdowns and anarchy everything is possible (USSR, Ukraine)
        however, territorial gifts are possible without this (Black and Barents shelf)
  20. Koshak
    Koshak 28 December 2017 16: 01 New
    +1
    Gasoline has grown, and oil has fallen.
    There is a conclusion. that is. one:
    terribly expensive
    what dilutes gasoline! " laughing
  21. shura7782
    shura7782 28 December 2017 19: 30 New
    +3
    So, we see that Russia is confidently and at an ever-accelerating pace getting rid of its oil dependence
    No comments. In bent, TALE !!!. good good good
  22. Anchonsha
    Anchonsha 30 December 2017 23: 51 New
    +1
    Well, how do you want Americans Well, at least something that should play against Russia. and it will start to fall apart. Nonsense, marikashki, you’ll bend faster, because a dollar cannot exist without oil, the United States needs to be imposed so that the dollar is accepted in the world as the main currency and traded in dollars for oil. And oil will be used for a long time in this century, since gasoline will still be cheaper than electricity, which still needs to be generated, and again hydrocarbons are needed for this.
  23. klm-57
    klm-57 1 January 2018 20: 22 New
    +1
    We must be grateful to our enemies for contributing to the acceleration of the modernization of the Russian economy. It is not clear what they hope this time. That Russia will again step on the same rake? Primitively.