All forecasts regarding the winter intensification of hostilities in the Donbas theater of operations and their escalation into a new phase of escalation of the conflict, made in the last quarter, continue to be confirmed almost to the smallest detail. And despite the fact that in comments to numerous analytical publications and reviews of the operational situation on the fronts of the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics, one can still find ardent supporters of the Minsk and Norman formats that have outlived themselves, the tough military-political reality continues to dictate its “big game” rules where our western "partners" masterfully fool the Russian side and the republic's military leaderships are already 3-th year. What results from participation in all these “peaceful actions” we observed by the end of the current year?
The White House’s Donald Trump’s “Minsk Process” commitment, which he stated during his meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in March 2017, evaporated as if by a wand of a magic wand immediately after signing the package for supplying Barrett M12,7A82 rifles to Kiev with a sighting range in 1 m. If to speak directly, December 1500 Washington once again showed us its attitude to the majority of projects in which at least some participation of the Russian side can be traced. However, this face was demonstrated a week ago, when the Canadian government approved the delivery of the "independent" small weapons along the line of intra-military sales of the North Atlantic Alliance (including selected non-aligned friendly states). As we have already pointed out in one of the previous works, in this case Ottawa can act as a kind of shadow mediator supplying Kiev with any class of American lethal weapons (including the same FGM-148 "Javelin" anti-tank missile system, corrected 155-mm projectiles M982 "Excalibur" or 120-mm adjustable mortar shells (PERM), which does not appear in an official document providing for the transfer of small arms only.
As for the 155 mm caliber, we advise you not to be mistaken, since despite the prevalence of the 122- and 152-mm artillery in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kiev plans to start the transition to the NATO 155-mm standard soon, and the first stage will be the purchase of Polish SAU "Krab Or their AS-90 type towers licensed by the Polish company Huta Stalowa Wola (HSW).
We also received the preservation of the junta’s control over Mariupol (from 6 September 2014) and the favorable location for Kiev of the artillery positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine just a few kilometers from the Gorlovsk-Enakiyevskaya and Donetsk-Makeevka agglomerations, which allows for regular ironing of the positions of the militia of the People’s Militia DNR, residential areas of the capital of the republic, as well as, if necessary, “reach out” to the rear transport hubs in the central and eastern parts of the LDNR. Not allowed to move the artillery ukrov positions on 30 - 40 km east of Donetsk “Minsk” caused hundreds of deaths in the front-line zone. And now the situation does hang in the balance. Having suffered a significant defeat in the Syrian theater of operations, where the pro-American "Syrian Democratic Forces" even with the help of military-technical support of the coalition air forces and the United States, failed to gain a foothold on the west coast of the Euphrates (with the possibility of further unification with At-Tanfa ), The USA now makes all bets on taking revenge in the conflict in the Donbas, which is also planned to be used as a tool to destabilize the situation on the Russian borders on the eve of the presidential Companies in March 55.
Preparations for the new criminal action in Kiev are the most ambitious for the last 3 of the year. In particular, against the backdrop of Poroshenko’s announced reinforcement of the APU grouping near the contact line, the Vestnik Mordoviya publication, citing sources in the DPR Defense Ministry, reported on the restoration of the junta’s powerful artillery “backbone” consisting of more than 520 - 530 122- and 152-mm ACS (more than 220 2C1 "Carnation" and 300 2C3 "Acacia"). There is also a massive artillery preparation for the republics prepared about 80 heavy long-range ACS 2S7 "Peony", 17 2S5 "Hyacinth-S", 35 2S19 "MSTA-S" and 30-35 2S9 "Nona-S". And in accordance with the data of OSCE observers, supported by information and photo / video materials received by public figure Alexei Zhuravko from eyewitnesses from the Kherson region, all this equipment is actively being transferred to the occupied parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. To conceal what is happening from the eyes of the Ukrainian population, the so-called “Mikhomaydan” continues to play a rather important role, performing a diverting function. And no matter how many different media claim that Saakashvili is the main instrument of the American special services for putting pressure on Valtsman (Poroshenko) on various issues, real events point to his completely different purpose - acting in a single link to fool the population.
Let's judge objectively. Where has it been seen that a person who is denied entry into the territory of a certain state, quietly “breaks through” the border with the support of a gang of aggressive supporters, and even with an attack on border guards? A similar circus is seen in an attempt to capture it by the supporters of the October Palace in the center of the Ukrainian capital, which Saakashvili himself argued with the desire to hold in this building "an event involving the wives of military political prisoners." Pseudo-attempts to arrest a famous Georgian war criminal looked no less ridiculous, stupid and absurd. Then they unsuccessfully tried to “pack it into a paddy wagon” escorted by a company of armed special forces, after which its activists miraculously allowed to break the door of the car and free Saakashvili. That he is released after 2-s days in jail and one day in court. And such measures are being taken against a subject who openly declares the need to overthrow the current Ukrainian regime.
Then, December 15 of 2017, as if nothing had happened, Saakashvili expresses a “desire to negotiate with Poroshenko to avoid the country being pulled apart,” also focusing on the need to “save one side.” How do you like this dashing turn? As a result, 22 December 2017 of the year, the Dutch newspaper “De Telegraaf”, citing the Ministry of Security and Justice of the state, announces the issuance of Saakashvili Netherlands visa. It could only say that the first batch of the Ukrainian “match” of the “tangerine fighter” was completed. The request for a Dutch visa was smoothly adjusted to the desire to reunite with her family, because his wife Sandra Roelofs is subject to the Dutch crown.
Now, for a simple Ukrainian inhabitant, Saakashvili is turning into a kind of “Carlson” with great connections in the USA and Western Europe, which allow him to break free from the shackles of Valtsman, and without fear of harassment from the SBU and other security forces, temporarily leave the “independent”. But “Carlson” has absolutely no plans to fly away, which was announced by Saakashvili’s associate and former Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine David Sakvarelidze by the evening of December 22. Neither Sakvarelidze nor Saakashvili mentioned the validity of a visa, while the Dutch foreign minister, Halbe Zeilstra, confirmed that the state was ready to accept Saakashvili without a visa, as his wife was Dutch. Saakashvili was quick to declare that despite numerous invitations to senior posts in the United States and European states, as well as proposals for citizenship, these tasks are not top priorities for him, and this indicates a continuation of the theatrical performance with the participation of “Miho-superhero” for a long time to broadcast on the Ukrainian zombie TV for a particularly gifted part of the population.
At this moment, the contact line in the Donbass from the Ukrainian side is rapidly saturated with not only artillery, but also armored units, which include the main combat Tanks T-72M1 equipped with elements of 4C20 dynamic protection of the 1st generation "Contact-1". Based on the fact that the equivalent resistance of the frontal projection of the tower from armor-piercing and cumulative shells for these tanks is 390 and 800 mm, respectively (taking into account the Contact-1 DZ), which is a very weak indicator compared to the same T-72B with EDZ 4S22 “Contact-5”, which are in service with the corpses of the NM LDNR. But the nuisance is that there are more than 72 of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces alone in 550 different versions, more than 60 of which, most of them are being quickly decommissioned for use during the upcoming escalation. And this is about 75-1000% of the total tank fleet of the republics (approximate figures). If we add another 1200 to 64 available T-145B / BV / BM, as well as 147-80 gas turbine T-1250B / BV equipped with GTD-80 reinforced engines (used as the power plant of our T-2U), then Kiev turns out to be about XNUMX-fold superiority in tanks alone.
As for the barrel and rocket artillery, its total quantity in service with NM LDNR is approximately 1,5 — 1,8 times less than that of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (taking into account the canned units); only field artillery (towed howitzer guns D-20, D-30, Msta-B and Hyacinth-B "and anti-tank guns MT-12" Rapier ") at the junta near 900 - 1100 units. This is quite enough to support the general offensive along the entire length of the contact line (and 4 - 5 dozens of backup batteries will remain!). But as we noted earlier, the offensive throws in the direction of the Gorlovsko-Enakiyevskaya and Donetsk-Makeevka agglomerations of the APU will not have enough opportunities, since it is here that the main anti-tank and assault "fists" of the NM of the DPR are concentrated.
Therefore, all Ukrainian artillery in the vicinity of Gorlovka, Donetsk and Dokuchaevsk today is designed to slow “soften” the defensive potential of the above “kulaks”, demoralize the personnel of the republican army, genocide of the Russian population of Donbass, and also attempt to divert units of the 1 Army Corps MO DNR from the most weakened and vulnerable from a tactical point of view directions ("Telmanovsky Isthmus", new azovskogo operational direction). The Telman direction is still in the zone of greatest risk due to the small operational depth of 30 — 35 km. Even with the correct construction of the NM DNI anti-tank frontiers, it will be extremely difficult to keep the enemy on the contact line in this direction due to the 3-xfold numerical superiority of the core of the APU deployed in Volnovakha, which can be partially supported by units from Sector M (Mariupol).
This is where it becomes clear that only experience and savvy against an enemy armed to the teeth (in 2 — 2,5 times the number of vehicles and 3-3,5 times — the number of personnel) cannot solve the situation. In particular, during the first large-scale artillery preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (when more than 10 - 20 batteries of the junta’s receiver and rocket artillery are used), the counter-artillery “response” of the DPR gunners will not be as massive as due to the smaller number of artillery units, and due to the fact that a good half of the artillery units of the DPR army are set aside from the contact line in connection with the observance of the “Minsk format”. Consequently, now the defense ministries of the republics (first of all, the Ministry of Defense of the DPR), it’s time to think about returning to the front line of the entire artillery component. But this, under the circumstances, will be extremely insufficient.
Today, not only numerical superiority plays into the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but also noticeably increased accuracy of artillery work, which is achieved by using territorial reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles, AN / TPQ-36 "Firefinder" anti-battery radar, and, if necessary, the American strategic drone RQ-4A "Global Hawk" with a tail number UAVGH000, which can provide the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with coordinates of artillery installations and concentrations of armored vehicles of NM DPR with accuracy of a couple of meters using airborne AN / ZPY-2 radar in SAR mode. To establish parity, armies of the republics urgently need adjustable 120-mm mortar mines KM-8 "Edge", as well as a number of corrected artillery shells (from "Kitolov" and "Centimeter-M1" to "Krasnopol-M2"). Otherwise, the safety of the population and the sustainability of the buildings of the NM LDNR will be a big question. And, judging by the events of the last days of the outgoing year, Moscow will be forced to take extremely tough retaliatory measures, both to maintain stability at the southern borders of the Russian Federation, and to save the republics of Donbass.
Contrary to any attempts by the Russian side, as well as the leaderships of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics to reach a compromise with Kiev regarding the settlement of the situation in Donbas, the state’s “hawks” were still able to put their destructive sticks into the wheels of any positive scenarios for reducing tensions. In a fairly short time, they still managed to persuade the Trump administration to sign the 47 million-dollar military aid package, the main point of which is to transfer 35 anti-tank missile systems FGM-148 "Javelin" and 210 ATGM for them to Kiev. It is clear that after the actual defeat in the Syrian company, Trump can only blindly fulfill the demands of ardent Russophobes from the State Department and the US Congress regarding Ukraine. Otherwise, the current head of the White House may have every chance of losing the remnants of a critically low 35% rating and be in a very bad position in the face of democrats eager for impeachment.
Information about the upcoming approval of the “delicious” weapon package for the “Square” appeared on December 11, 23 on the American television channel ABC News, citing sources in the US Department of State, but the official decision from the department seems to be received in the period from December 2017 25 2017 January 1, or early next year (after approval by a majority vote in Congress). The likelihood of the adoption of the document is extremely high. What can this lead to LDNR? If we consider the situation from the point of view of the average observer, the 2018 units of transport-launch containers “Javelin” with 35 ATGMs are not capable of drastically changing the operational situation in favor of the Ukrainian militants. If, however, to evaluate all this with a tactical eye, it becomes clear that even this insignificant number of transport-launch "tubes" is quite enough to fairly effectively support local offensive operations on one or two operational directions of the Southern Front of the DPR. Why such a conclusion?
First, in contrast to the anti-tank units of NM DPR, which are in service, the XFUMOT XFXXX9, 111X9 XMTC, 113 X9M Konkurs-M and 113K9-115 Métis-M, using radio cell systems, using radio radios, using radio radios, using radio radios, using radio radios constant sight of the operator from crystalline solution cadmium mercury telluride (CdHgTe). This range is especially effective at work at significant distances and in difficult meteorological conditions. Consequently, the principle of “let-forget” is implemented, which provides for an instant change of the position of the operator with the complex in the next few seconds after the execution of the shot. The anti-tank operators of the above-mentioned domestic complexes should, for 2 - 9 seconds, hold the target at the crosshairs of the optical reticle, synchronized with the night or day sights, which may later reveal the location of the ATGM trajectory or the infrared flash when the starting engine is turned on. The problem is that the operator cannot change the firing position until the target is hit.
This means only one thing: if offensive operations are carried out in the provincial infrastructure, as well as assault operations against the NM base posts of the DPR in such settlements as Kominternovo, Sakhanka or Telmanovo, Ukrainian military formations (with the entire 6 - 8 Javelin ATGM) can act several times more flexibly. Thanks to the use of the “let-forget” method of “getting” Ukrainian anti-tank fighters in Javelina, it will be quite difficult, while the latter will be able to start firing from completely unpredictable directions and foreshortenings. Javelina also has a flaw that affects the firing performance of the complex: we are talking about the need for 25-second cooling of the GOS with a coolant for its effective operation not only with “hot”, but also with slightly contrasting ground objects. During these 25 seconds, the situation in a separate area of the theater of operations can change simply beyond recognition (for example, our Metis-M has a much higher rate of fire in 3 rpm).
However, this does not negate another important advantage of the American anti-tank complex FGM-148 - work on armored and shelter targets using the 45-degree dive mode. This mode not only makes it difficult to visually detect the approximate location of the position of the anti-tank player, but also makes it possible to effectively hit moving units hidden behind natural relief objects or urban buildings. In the conditions of urban confrontation, such a property is simply indispensable, given the fact that a “soft” start is provided by optimizing the burning of a solid-fuel charge of an expelling engine, enabling firing from small rooms. Moreover, the dive allows you to hit the main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and bunkers in the upper hemisphere. In the case of tanks, the strike with a leading cumulative charge, and then the main one, is produced in the most vulnerable upper projection, part of which is not blocked by RS “Contact-1 / 5” elements, and if it is blocked, then a thin 70 - 80-mm upper armor plate is all Equally does not provide protection against penetration.
Under such circumstances, it is possible to protect tanks and crews of the people's militia units of the LDNR solely by equipping the first with promising active defense complexes, which even in our army are available only on “Armata”. An excellent solution can field assembly homemade heat absorbing screens of more than a dozen layers of karemat and multilayer sheets of food foil. Such screens are capable of absorbing infrared radiation in the long-wavelength range 8-12 μm with a rather high uniqueness, which was confirmed in one of the articles published in the newspaper “Soviet physicist”. Another method is the use of heat-emitting combustible substances (ignition of diesel fuel), or the use of various types of infrared traps.
But it's not so simple here, because the FGM-148 is a smart rocket, and the onboard computer located in it definitely has various software filters that allow to distinguish the thermal silhouette of the target from all sorts of traps. At this point, the question becomes more complicated. One thing can be said with precision that in the fields of the Donbass steppe terrain of the “Javelins” with their insignificant radius of operation in 2,5 km completely lose their effectiveness and relevance, and therefore the “mirror” transfer of the above-mentioned corrected artillery shells and the same self-propelled complexes to the defenders of the DPR and the LPR “ Chrysanthemum-S ", which has an all-weather and range in 6000 through the use of a millimeter radio control channel, can allow Donbass to end the war much faster and with less losses in the corps, t and to the civilian population.