Military Review

Do capitalism rails lead China to a dead end?

41
Do capitalism rails lead China to a dead end?



December 18 in Beijing hosted the Central Economic Working Conference, whose goal is to discuss the current economic situation and determine the policy for the next year. Starting from the 18 CCP Congress, Chairman Xi Jinping pointed out the directions of China’s economic and social development, putting forward a number of new ideas, strategies and concepts. The Central Television of the People's Republic of China summarized the statements of the Chinese leader in economics and singled out six key slogans in this area. About what these slogans are and about their significance for the economic policy of China, read in the material on the Eve.RU.

1. "New Economic Reality" (经济 新 常态). The Chinese economy has entered a new reality, where it is moving from rapid growth to growth at average rates. Growth ceases to be extensive, there is a transition to intensive and high-performance development.

2. Structural reform of the proposal (供给 侧 结构性 改革). It focuses on the liberation and development of social productive forces, reducing inefficient and low-budget supply, expanding the effective average supply and increasing its flexibility according to changes in demand, increasing production efficiency. The problems existing in the country's economy must be solved through policies that promote scientific and technological innovation, the development of the real economy, and the preservation and improvement of the living conditions of people.

3. "Three failures, one reduction and one replenishment" (三 去 一 降 一 补): the need to abandon excess capacity, stocks in warehouses and debt load. Cut according to this slogan requires costs and expenses, and replenishment means correction of deficiencies. As Xi Jinping noted, overproduction, large stocks in warehouses, high costs and leverage used to stimulate demand make the economy unstable, even if it grows in the short term.



4. Overall prosperity (共同 富裕). The eradication of poverty, the increase in people's livelihoods and the gradual realization of general prosperity are the basic needs of socialism and an important task for the party. “The assault pipes of the battle for the eradication of poverty are already being blown. By 2020 we must bring all impoverished areas into a well-to-do society,” Xi Jinping emphasized.

5. The Belt and the Way (一带 一路) is an initiative that supports the principles of joint discussion, building and sharing. It is especially emphasized that China, although it puts forward the initiative “One Belt - One Way”, he appears in it not as a soloist, but as a member of the choir. During the 19 Congress of the CPC, the head of the People's Republic of China called the discrepancy between the constantly growing needs of the people in a wonderful life and the uneven and incomplete development of the main contradiction in Chinese society.

6. Coordinated regional development (区域 协调 发展). This refers to the implementation of the joint development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province, which is focused on the future formation of a new economic environment of the Chinese capital. It provides for the promotion of new mechanisms for regional development, the search for the perfect look of urban agglomerations, when the free economic zone in Tianjin on the shores of the Bohai Bay will, in turn, lead to the development of inland regions of North China.



Doctor of Economics, Professor MGIMO Valentin Katasonov in a conversation with the eve. RU noted that the PRC is no longer able to withstand such rates of economic growth, so the transition to average growth rates is not some kind of goal, but a recognition of reality. Today, all sources of high economic growth have been exhausted. “By such sources, I first of all understand the possibilities of China’s mastering the world market. The process of trade globalization has already ended. I closely followed the speeches at the last CPC congress and I didn’t see a clear answer to what economic policy should be, the economic course of China,” - he said.

In this case, you can not sit on two chairs - China can not decide on what rails it is going to roll - socialism or capitalism. As stressed by Valentin Katasonov, "apparently, the rails of capitalism have already brought him to a standstill." But it is extremely difficult for China today to jump onto the rails of socialism for a variety of reasons, even because today there are political forces that have their own interests in the capitalist form of development.

"I can show you by a simple example - I follow the policy in the area of ​​currency. Today in China there are two diametrically opposite points of view, some say - we need a strong yuan, we need to strengthen it, we need to make it a reserve currency. But if they make the yuan a reserve currency, then you have to say goodbye to the active trade balance. In fact, they will have to abandon the development path that the last 30 years have followed. And if they really want a strong yuan, then a number of questions arise - due to What are they going to live? If at the expense of the domestic economy, then it is really, after all, socialism because it is impossible to build the domestic economy at the expense of the market. A mobilization model of the economy is needed here, a rigid state administration, "the expert notes.

Reform of the proposal, and the elimination of poverty, and large-scale construction in the metropolitan agglomeration can be a step in this direction, but, as Valentin Katasonov noted, the eradication of poverty itself is “such a social demagogy of the Communist Party, in principle, the fight against poverty is the slogan , but not a strategy. You can in some sense correct the distribution of the social product, you can even out the polarization of society, but they themselves have to answer the main question - which model is used - capitalist, socialist “export-oriented, or a model aimed at developing the domestic market and domestic economy. They cannot answer these questions. And not because they are stupid, but because they now have quite a serious political and ideological discord even inside the CCP."
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  1. tasha
    tasha 23 December 2017 06: 04 New
    +4
    this is such a social demagogy of the communist party,


    Not sure. The party will say - the Chinese will.

    what model is used - capitalist, socialist

    Some kind of dogmatism. It seems to me that there is no need to choose either \ or. Under the strict guidance of the various options are possible.
    1. Nikolaevich I
      Nikolaevich I 23 December 2017 13: 14 New
      +3
      Quote: tasha
      The party will say - the Chinese will.

      That's for sure! The party said: "Iron is necessary!" And the Chinese filled up the country with "metallurgical slag" ... and at the same time they destroyed all the sparrows so that there would be more bread ... however, there was less bread, on the contrary, but this was a trifle (!) ... the main thing, the Chinese said the party! (The Great Leap Forward, 1958-60)
      Quote: tasha
      what model is used - capitalist, socialist
      Some kind of dogmatism. It seems to me that there is no need to choose either \ or. Under the strict guidance of the various options are possible.

      That's right. "Though you call us a load, if only they would not put it in a box!" Capitalist ... socialist ... and maybe "efficient economic"? wink
  2. Odysseus
    Odysseus 23 December 2017 07: 15 New
    20
    Two points can be made here.
    1) Of course, it is necessary to confront Russophobia (hatred of the cultural, historical civilizational path of the Russian people and the state, hatred of its “features”), but you cannot turn a blind eye to the typical shortcomings of our thinking (especially brightly blossomed during the “course of reforms”). One of them is typically Russian Oblomovism and the complete absence of common sense, as exemplified by this article.
    Think about it, the main concern of the “ruling class” is the future American sanctions that rob them of their loot and exported to the West, but the main joy is the Prime Minister Nureyev. We, purely along the way, publish news that the “successful banker” Ananiev left for The West, having previously destroyed documents for 110 billion rubles, and its bank ordered to live long and no one even pays any attention to this news, well, routine ...
    But at the same time, everyone is ready to discuss "whether there is socialism in China," they argue with foam at the mouth that the US is "losing world hegemony" or "there was no Mongol-Tatar invasion."
    Ok, gentlemen, comrades, what kind of Mongol-Tatars, what kind of socialism in China ...
    "The Divine Comedy. With a clang, a creak, a squeal, an iron curtain descends over Russian History. - The presentation is over. The audience stood up. - It's time to put on fur coats and return home. Looked around. But there were no fur coats or houses. ”
    2) If we talk about Chinese affairs, even here the abstractness and impracticality of the author’s thinking are surprising.
    What does the “rails of socialism”, “the rails of capitalism” mean? What socialism? Socialism according to Marx? So, according to it, there is no socialism (or rather, there is, but it is reactionary), there is communism, and it arises as a social formation in the transition from capitalism to the most developed cap. countries and has a universal character. That is, in practice, it did not exist.
    Socialism according to Stalin? according to Brezhnev? according to the Yugoslav model? in European terms (that is, with the buildup of social guarantees within the capital community due to accumulated capital)? The author postulates a completely vague entity, but does not even explain what he means. No, maybe he, of course, says something very smart, that's just not clear what he is talking about ...
    In the end, he goes from the heights of socialism to the development of the domestic market, showing an ignorance of the topic, for the development of the domestic market (which in itself is not connected with socialism and does not necessarily imply a "mobilization economy") has been a priority according to the CPC installation documents since 2009.
    In a word, the author, proceeding from the foggy distance of our over-successful country, wants to advise something to the first economy of the world, but this is not very clear ...
    1. Sling cutter
      Sling cutter 23 December 2017 07: 58 New
      18
      Quote: Odyssey
      In a word, the author, proceeding from the foggy distance of our over-successful country, wants to advise something to the first economy of the world, but this is not very clear ...

      You wrote SUPER-COMMENT !!!! good
      Quote: Odyssey
      Think about it, we have the main concern

      But no one wants to ponder.
      No one wants to think that the PVV on the 21st gathered the whole “oligarchy” and they all shared around how to steal the stolen money from sanctions. And as usual we decided to do it at the expense of our people !!!
      Having agreed that the interest rate on "e-bonds" will be 4,5%, taking into account that the population is paid 1-1,5% on foreign currency deposits !!!
      It’s beautiful, first to steal trillions of raccoons from the people (state), and then return them to storage under the guarantee of the same people, but with welding of 4,5%. And these same% take again from the people, from children, hospitals, schools, roads ...
      coop "lake" has no equal.
      Nobody wants to think about it, the main thing is that America die, the geyropa collapses and the kaklov has a crop failure.
      1. Vladimir K
        Vladimir K 23 December 2017 11: 45 New
        +7
        I completely agree: here is the litmus paper - with whom the GDP, with the people or with the nouveau riche in the law. Only here, our people, rightly, do not want to think. Previously, the phrase: * Each nation is worthy of its ruler *, it seemed not quite true. Now I see - to the point.
        1. captain
          captain 23 December 2017 12: 40 New
          0
          Quote: Vladimir K
          I completely agree: here is the litmus paper - with whom the GDP, with the people or with the nouveau riche in the law. Only here, our people, rightly, do not want to think. Previously, the phrase: * Each nation is worthy of its ruler *, it seemed not quite true. Now I see - to the point.

          Now, if Lenin were alive !!! Socialism all over the world would have been built long ago. Of course, not as bourgeois as in Sweden, but real Leninist.
          And our people are "stupid", to think correctly, that is, how you cannot. You are not lucky with the people.
    2. antivirus
      antivirus 23 December 2017 10: 41 New
      +1
      some say - we need a strong yuan, we need to strengthen it, we need to make it a reserve currency. But if they make the yuan the reserve currency, then they will have to say goodbye to the active trade balance. In fact, they will have to abandon the development path that the last 30 years have followed.
      The AUTHOR has clearly posed the QUESTION - THESE GROUPS FOR A STRONG YUAN - WALKED UP FOR 30 YEARS OF DEVELOPMENT AND WANT TO RESERVE ON LAURES. Do not change the distribution of income.
      ONE MORE THAN 500 MILLION PULL OUT OF POVERTY
      little contradiction, however, among friends-neighbors ..
      The USA has fed its suppliers in China and now they are leading them to sole power in China (and other countries where there is influence of these people - supposedly China has its own sphere of influence), against the interests of 1/3 Chinese
    3. Lexus
      Lexus 23 December 2017 14: 18 New
      +3
      The Chinese have a clear principle - "The good is what is good for China." For the rest, they are "on the drum."
  3. Bastinda
    Bastinda 23 December 2017 07: 45 New
    +3
    Well, that’s it! If the economy dies in China, what is the only way to save the whole world of Russia?
    1. Boris55
      Boris55 23 December 2017 09: 08 New
      0
      Quote: Bastinda
      Well, that’s it! If the economy dies in China, what is the only way to save the whole world of Russia?

      Putin at an expanded meeting of the board of the Ministry of Defense 22 December 2017 of the year: "... we are not going to play the role of world gendarme ...." http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56472
      (video 1: 02: 40)
      1. 34 region
        34 region 23 December 2017 10: 13 New
        +5
        Boris55, 09:08. Why does Putin not raise the question of Russia's leadership on all issues? Why is the question of leadership in science, in space, in technology, in the standard of living not raised? Is Putin afraid, shy or unwilling to be a world leader? Where are Putin's applications for leadership? Maybe not a hat for Senka? Or is the king not real?
        1. Boris55
          Boris55 23 December 2017 10: 21 New
          0
          Quote: Region 34
          Why does Putin not raise the question of Russia's leadership on all issues?

          Because we don’t need it. Living according to animal laws: “He who is not under us is against us” - this is not our method. Our slogan is: "Guys, let's live together."
          Putin outlined his vision of the world order in his article: “The XXV APEC Summit in Da Nang: Together for Prosperity and Harmonious Development” http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56023

          Quote: 34 region
          Why is the question of leadership in science, in space, in technology, in the standard of living not raised?

          Our desires will always be ahead of our capabilities, and rightly so, but do not destroy the state for the sake of the dream of lace panties. Everything goes according to plan. We will gain sovereignty and only then we will drive the bourgeois to the baseboard.
          1. 34 region
            34 region 23 December 2017 10: 43 New
            +7
            Boris55, 10:21. It’s bad that we don’t need this (leadership). This is servility and worship. And our slogan is completely different. Let’s get attached to the trough! We have no desires except the desire to enter their house with a scarecrow, even a carcass! We even agree on a place near the bucket. And by entering the Western world and the WTO, we are destroying Russia. Everything goes according to plan. We will become the state of the USA and then Russia will be recognized as the state (unit of the Western world)! And that’s all. We acknowledge all the instructions of the West! They said: White flag! We took under the visor and ran to obey the instructions! North Korea, Iran and Assad are cooler and more independent than Putin. Yes, we helped Assad in our (oil and gas) interests. But Assad resisted the West. And Russia is surrendering everything to the West without a fight. And do not talk about terrorists. There is purely business interest.
            1. Boris55
              Boris55 23 December 2017 10: 52 New
              0
              The traitors from 90's haven’t gone anywhere. There are many more at all levels of government. The time for drastic sweeps has not yet come.
              About gas and oil. It still occupies a significant part (1 / 3) in our budget, and this includes salaries, pensions, benefits, etc. The higher the income from oil and gas, the greater the salary and pension.
              1. Bastinda
                Bastinda 23 December 2017 15: 10 New
                +2
                Putin's head ... I just forgot to put a smiley face at the end.
            2. Anyone
              Anyone 27 December 2017 13: 29 New
              +1
              Of course, Iran, the DPRK and others like them are much more independent in their political and economic decisions than Russia. There, local elites are not built into the world system, and if they are partially integrated, it is not to the extent determining the political course. In our country, on the contrary, the political and economic elites ™ have long organically fit into the international system. Therefore, the Russian people today have a pattern gap due to the certain, visible to the layman, dualism policy of the Russian government: we, it seems, are part of the Western world, but it is opposing us. The West of our power is not a friend, but this world stubbornly calls power "partners." And even taking into account the share of sarcasm in this definition, it says a lot in terms of relations with our seemingly enemies, which, paradoxically, ideologically and economically do not differ significantly from us))
        2. antivirus
          antivirus 23 December 2017 10: 44 New
          +3
          nothing to raise the question - who prints "money" --- that is the owner of the leader.
  4. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 23 December 2017 09: 33 New
    +3
    The digital era in Russian - people are fed with numbers.
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 23 December 2017 09: 37 New
    +1
    2. Structural reform of the proposal
    And I like this slogan (read its explanation) and it would be nice if it became popular with us. The third is also not bad, but we do not observe overproduction.
  6. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov 23 December 2017 10: 00 New
    +3
    The rails of capitalism, and especially of the neoliberal one, can lead not only to a dead end, but simply to ..op And all of humanity! Thousands of years of civilization, development, curiosity and discoveries will end with the degradation of the "golden billion" and the "pupation" of the remaining human "civilization"
    1. Boris55
      Boris55 23 December 2017 10: 08 New
      0
      Quote: andrej-shironov
      Thousands of years of civilization, development, curiosity and discovery

      All development, all discoveries were carried out in spite of "civilization." The Church, as the personification of the supreme power of the entire "civilization", only in the 1955 goal recognized that the earth revolves around the sun, and not on the back.


      The Peace Management Center is being relocated to China incl. especially nervous, please do not worry - everything will be in order with China.
      1. andrej-shironov
        andrej-shironov 23 December 2017 10: 27 New
        0
        Dear Boris! That is, following your logic, is it normal for the church to recognize the rotation of the earth around the sun in 1955? And by the way, the church is never once a civilization. I honestly do not care about China, I care about the further development of human civilization! and Russia in particular.
        1. Boris55
          Boris55 23 December 2017 10: 36 New
          +1
          Quote: andrej-shironov
          the church recognized the Earth's rotation around the Sun in 1955 year is this normal?

          No, this is not normal. But all those who saddled power will in every way impede any changes - they are happy with everything, and any changes will lead to their overthrow.
          Quote: andrej-shironov
          And by the way, the church is never a civilization.

          For over two thousand years, not a single social system has changed, not a single government has changed - only the one who governs all this does not change - the church.
          Until we give up the Biblical concept of the structure of the World, there will be no justice in the World, incl. and in Russia.
          1. andrej-shironov
            andrej-shironov 23 December 2017 10: 43 New
            0
            Well, here I do not agree with you. The church is only 2 thousand years old, although of course this is one of the most long-lived projects. Perhaps you had in mind religion in general and its ministers. Regarding resistance to change, I completely agree with you. And what exactly should we abandon from the biblical concept of world order?
            1. Boris55
              Boris55 23 December 2017 11: 00 New
              +1
              Quote: andrej-shironov
              And what exactly should we abandon from the biblical concept of world order?

              Everything is complete. The Old Testament is an instruction for enslavement. New - to contain enslaved in submission. This is not the topic of this article, and therefore, I consider it not advisable to further discuss the role of religions in society.
              1. andrej-shironov
                andrej-shironov 23 December 2017 11: 05 New
                0
                So you do not use the covenants in everyday life. What is easier then? The church is almost everywhere separated from the state.
                1. Boris55
                  Boris55 23 December 2017 11: 13 New
                  0
                  Quote: andrej-shironov
                  The church is almost everywhere separated from the state.

                  In words - yes, but in reality? Even a far from reclaimed person heard about the 10 commandments of Moses given to them by the Jews. And look at our culture. In any film, the attributes of churchliness are necessarily present, either a cross, or a church in the background is something else ... The same is in museums, books, etc. In most of the drivers it is customary to have what thread an icon is in the passenger compartment ... and. etc.
                  The church lays thoughts, forms a culture, on the basis of which the deputies pass laws by which we all live. And we are told that the church is not aisles - they lie.
                  1. andrej-shironov
                    andrej-shironov 23 December 2017 11: 28 New
                    +3
                    Unlikely. I think you are looking for a black cat in a dark room when she is not there.
                    1. Boris55
                      Boris55 23 December 2017 12: 54 New
                      0
                      Quote: andrej-shironov
                      Unlikely. I think you are looking for a black cat in a dark room when she is not there.

                      And if it is painted on each fence?
                      First, thought, then action. As we think, we are doing so. As we act - so we live.
                      What unites Western civilization is the Catholic faith. What unites the civilization of the East is faith in the Buddha. What unites us is Orthodoxy.
                      What are our differences - in the culture formed in us by our beliefs.
                      Different teachings are adapted to different peoples, but their goal is the same - to divide and rule.
                      1. andrej-shironov
                        andrej-shironov 23 December 2017 15: 39 New
                        +1
                        Dear Boris. Looks like a sect to be honest.
  7. lexx2038
    lexx2038 23 December 2017 11: 31 New
    +2
    Poor Chinese, they have a fork - the choice of the way, and we are already at an impasse - lie to ourselves, spit. No, well, the truth is we try to break through the “bottom” from time to time, it’s interesting to find out what is behind the otherworldly bottom. And suddenly there is a wormhole and we are hop - again all the first in white jackets of a domestic garment factory.
    1. Nikolaevich I
      Nikolaevich I 23 December 2017 13: 34 New
      +2
      Quote: lexx2038
      Poor Chinese, they have a fork - the choice of the way, and we are already at an impasse - lie to ourselves, spit. No, well, the truth is we try to break through the “bottom” from time to time, it’s interesting to find out what is behind the otherworldly bottom. And suddenly there is a wormhole and we are hop - again all the first in white jackets of a domestic garment factory.

      Well Duc ... punching the bottom, you can do the same without leaving the "house"! Which is very convenient! What do you want? Send us further .. on the "edge of the earth" look: "faq there"? Well, I saw a picture where a dude, after a long grueling journey, reached the "end of the earth" and looked beyond the "edge ..." And what did he see there? Darkness dotted with "lights" and obscure objects! wink
  8. vlad007
    vlad007 23 December 2017 13: 25 New
    +2
    There are many documentaries and videos on YouTube about production in China and about the lives of ordinary people in YouTube. I looked, I advise - look. Their barracks capitalism is flourishing. They build a factory, next to it on the factory territory (behind the fence) they build a hostel (sometimes a hostel in the same building on the upper floors) on the principle of "one family one room", the kitchen is common for everyone, each family has its own table in a common kitchen, gas tiles, shower and toilet are shared throughout the floor. And there are a lot of such factories.
    Production is concentrated so that the supply is the simplest. There is a city of socks - a large city (about 500 tons of inhabitants) in which only socks are produced, there are about 300 factories and the same range of materials for production is supplied for everything. The machines are only Chinese, but there is no mechanization - a woman sits behind each machine and manually controls the work of the machine. Quality control is manual - each sock is manually put on a blank and they look for holes. Socks in China cost 40 euro cent, and in Europe - 4 euro. Tenfold fat. Could write other examples, but lazy to write long. If anyone is interested, check out YouTube.
    1. antivirus
      antivirus 23 December 2017 15: 18 New
      0
      approx in 10-12 years, one acquaintance said --- we came to China to see advanced technology. and products

      "We are driving along a suburb of the highway to the factory. On the sides are huts made of bamboo and galvanized
      have arrived. come in. modern machines are on separate foundations, whales are running on wooden walkways (below the ground) with baskets.
      no treatment, ventilation.
      only 3 ft (gesture of 3 fingers of one hand straight and 2 p clamped) failed.
      1. tasha
        tasha 23 December 2017 19: 37 New
        +2
        Their barracks capitalism flourishes.

        May be. I repeat. Communicated in China with the owner of one of the small factories. He listened with great surprise to me about the taxes that I pay for workers. He shared his problem - on a legal weekend (Sunday, New Year, etc.), workers do not want to relax, but work because they are paid twice as much ... Only military and government employees receive pensions in China. Everyone else feeds their old people ...
  9. Boris55
    Boris55 23 December 2017 17: 56 New
    +2
    Quote: andrej-shironov
    Dear Boris. Looks like a sect to be honest.

    BER is not a sect. This development of the Leningrad Institute was carried out on the instructions of the Central Committee of the CPSU towards the end of the 80's to counter Western ideology. Since it was not in demand with the arrival of Gorbachev, the team of authors decided to bring it to the public so that their work would not be in vain.
    About the sect. Here is her definition:
    "... At least five characteristic features are characteristic of all sects without exception, regardless of their age and number of participants:
    - The presence of esoteric and exoteric teachings, which in Russian means: in a sect there is always a teaching for the crowd and a teaching for the elite - dedicated hierarchs.
    - The presence of certain dogmas of the doctrine, which are not subject to discussion and should be accepted by adherents of the doctrine as true without any doubt or reasoning.
    - The presence of a ritual that accompanies any meeting of representatives of the sect and is actually a means of zombifying their psyche.
    - The existence of an arbitrarily branched hierarchy, which is strictly forbidden to enter into a dispute with which according to the main dogmas of the sect’s teachings.
    - Since the teachings of the sect are based on dogmas that are not subject to discussion, then there is no place for the formation of a personal culture of mastering new knowledge (there is no method of mastering) and a meaningful attitude to Life honestly ... "
    None of this definition of the sect of BER is suitable, and therefore can not be called its sect.
    BER is a concept opposed to the Biblical concept. If the true goals are hidden in the biblical concept, then in the BER everything is in an accessible place (internet) for everyone.
    1. Doliva63
      Doliva63 23 December 2017 21: 22 New
      +4
      I have not read, but I agree laughing
  10. Doliva63
    Doliva63 23 December 2017 21: 17 New
    +6
    I’ve somehow vanganized already that China has 2 options - either a collapse in counties, or socialism. I think in the end they will choose the second - based on experience and the results of the collapse of the Union.
  11. gorenina91
    gorenina91 25 December 2017 11: 44 New
    0
    -If China suddenly swings sharply in the "direction of capitalism" .., then its gigantic army will fall apart literally before our eyes ... -there everything rests only on a "socialist basis" ...
    1. Romulus
      Romulus 25 December 2017 11: 48 New
      +1
      Quote: gorenina91
      -If China suddenly swings sharply in the "direction of capitalism" .., then its gigantic army will fall apart literally before our eyes ... -there everything rests only on a "socialist basis" ...

      Oops .. where is such a "powerful" conclusion?