Military Review

Jump off the oil needle: Norway, Emirates ... Who's next?

33
Oil and gas are the most valuable raw materials of the modern world. But some countries, which until recently had the most important positions in the global oil and gas market, are increasingly thinking about reducing the dependence of their economies on the export of these types of raw materials. The other day, the sovereign pension fund of Norway announced its desire to stop investment in the oil and gas sector in the future. The management company Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the pension fund, sent a proposal to the government of Norway.


In the first half of the twentieth century, Norway was one of the poorest and most economically underdeveloped countries of Europe. At least, the standard of living of the population in this country could not be called high. Most of the population lived in rural areas and was engaged, as far as climatic conditions allowed, in agriculture. There was a very high unemployment rate.

Jump off the oil needle: Norway, Emirates ... Who's next?


In search of a better life from 1850 to 1920, over 800 thousands of Norwegians emigrated from country to North America (given the small population of the country, this was a significant population loss). The Second World War became a serious test for the country. However, in 1969, large reserves of oil were found in the North Sea, after which the position of Norway radically changed. The development of oil fields has led to the fact that Norway has become an oil power. The standard of living of the population has sharply increased, the quality of life has improved.

The super-profits from the sale of oil led to the fact that Norway has become the most prosperous socially and economically state in Europe. Here - one of the highest standards of living in the world, high average life expectancy, the majority of citizens live in comfortable conditions and enjoy many advantages. In 1990, the Norwegian sovereign pension fund was established, where surplus funds were received from the sale of oil resources. Officially, the foundation proclaims its goal is to preserve oil revenues for the needs of future generations of Norwegians.

The main revenues in the sovereign pension fund of Norway for a long time carried out at the expense of funds from the sale of oil. The fund then began to make independent investments, becoming one of the key global investors with a “wallet” of shares that make up 1,3% of the entire global stock market. The value of the assets of the sovereign pension fund of Norway in 2017 year exceeded 1 trillion dollars. That is, we see the scale of this organization and its financial capabilities.

By the way, on a global scale, the Norwegian pension fund ranks third in the world in terms of funds. China retains its first place at the expense of the total assets of four sovereign funds valued at 1,6 trillion dollars, and the second place is the United Arab Emirates, whose assets in six sovereign funds 1,3 trillion dollars. Since there is only one sovereign fund in Norway, in fact it is the largest in the world - Chinese and UAE funds ensure their superiority in finance through the aggregate of funds in four funds of the PRC and six funds of the UAE, respectively.



The funds from the Norwegian sovereign pension fund are drawn from three main sources - the purchase of shares, the purchase of bonds and real estate investments. At the same time, the share of shares of oil and gas companies is 5,5% of the fund's investments, they also bring the most serious income - 8,5% of the total income received from the shares. In total, the fund has shares in the oil and gas sector worth 35 billions of dollars. The fund has shares in such global giants of the oil and gas industry as Shell (2,1%) and BP (1,6%). There is a sovereign pension fund in Norway and investments in shares of Russian companies - the fund owns 0,5% of Transneft shares, 0,5% of Novatek shares, 0,4% of Gazprom shares, 0,4% of Gazpromneft shares, Lukoil 0,37%.

The Norwegian company Statoil on 67% is owned by the state, being one of the thirty oil and gas "giants" of the world economy. Norwegian oil attracts many buyers, including the neighboring Baltic states, who are terribly concerned about their energy dependence on Russian resources and expect sooner or later to reduce this dependence by reorienting to Norway. Western European countries also buy Norwegian raw materials, although they remain dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies. In this regard, the recent statement by the sovereign pension fund on the gradual reduction of investment in the oil and gas industry seems very strange. However, it is only at first glance. In fact, the situation is much more interesting.

In recent years, there has been a long-term decline in oil and gas prices on a global scale. This decline can already be called a trend, which in one way or another will determine the global socio-economic and political development in the present and in the near future. Naturally, in the face of declining oil prices, many states are trying to reduce their dependence on revenues associated with both the export of raw materials and investments in the oil and gas sector and the securities of this sector. Norway is no exception. Analysts of the Norwegian Bank have already managed to calculate that if the cost of a barrel of oil drops to 12 dollars, this will have a very negative impact on the revenues of the sovereign pension fund related to investments in the oil and gas sector. These revenues will be reduced by more than two times, which will inevitably affect the economic well-being of the Norwegian state.

Meanwhile, the costs of the Norwegian state are increasing, and this is due to the need to maintain a regime of maximum social well-being for Norwegian citizens. In particular, as lawyer Andrei Lisov says, the Norwegian government has repeatedly stated its intention to cut taxes. But the cost of the country more and more, it turns out that the plans and reality are contradictory. According to the lawyer, in any case in the near future will have to adjust the activities of the sovereign pension fund of Norway. If Norway fails to get off the oil needle, the economic situation in the country may seriously deteriorate in the future. To prevent this, it is proposed to significantly reduce investment in the oil and gas sector.

Refusal to invest in the oil and gas industry is also associated with changes in the very paradigm of Norway’s energy development in the 21st century. Sovereign pension fund has long paid great attention to environmental issues. The pursuit of green technologies is another incentive to get rid of the oil needle. The head of the Norwegian Greenpeace, Truls Gulovsen, believes that the best solution for Norway would be to redirect funds freed from the oil and gas sector to the development of alternative energy and hydropower. Emphasis must be placed on renewable resources, including solar energy, wind energy. It is in the construction of wind and hydroelectric power stations that Gulovsen calls for investing funds from a sovereign pension fund.

Note that before, guided by the idea of ​​combating climate change and global warming, the sovereign pension fund sold off most of its coal assets. The fund also refused to participate in the activities of companies involved in the production and sales of nuclear weaponswith a tobacco business. That is, ideological considerations are attached to economic and financial considerations. Norway seeks to position itself as a super-modern state, focused on environmental values ​​and refusing technologies that are harmful to the environment. The oil and gas industry, of course, falls under this definition and becomes the target of an ecological lobby, quite influential in modern Norwegian politics.



Many countries of the world want to get off the oil needle. Norway is not alone in this regard. “The Curse of Black Gold” is what world mass media call raw material dependence on and there really is some truth in this. The well-being of many states, especially in Asia and Africa, was entirely based on oil exports. It was thanks to the oil sector that Muammar Gaddafi succeeded in his time in turning Libya into a prosperous country compared to other African economies. Oil production in the second half of the twentieth century completely changed the face of the feudal monarchies of the Persian Gulf. The impoverished sheikhs and emirates, still 100 years ago inhabited by nomadic camels and fishermen, became the richest nations in the world. Their indigenous people began to receive their share of rent from oil exports, although the share of the indigenous population has declined - in some countries of the Persian Gulf, guest workers from South and Southeast Asia and East Africa make up 90% of the population.

The fact that it is time to tie with the "oil addiction", today they say in the countries of the Persian Gulf. Perhaps the most successful country in this respect is the United Arab Emirates. With the help of the proceeds from the sale of oil, the UAE managed to turn Dubai into a super modern city, the financial capital of South-West Asia and the largest center of tourism. In 2016 alone, more than 20 million tourists from all over the world visited Dubai. A few decades ago, no one could have imagined that tourists would go to the United Arab Emirates - apart from oil derricks, the sandy desert and the Bedouins, there was simply nothing to watch. But the UAE authorities prudently began to invest the proceeds from the sale of oil funds in the development of the tourism industry. Infrastructure recreation and entertainment was created literally from scratch, and at a high level. The result - investment in the tourism sector has made it possible to turn tourism into a source of huge revenue for the state. Oil resources will ever end, and sandy beaches, luxury hotels and even a ski resort in the hot desert will remain.

Secondly, Dubai has long been turned into the main staging base of the Old World. Through Dubai fly anywhere - to Africa, to Southeast and South Asia, to Australia. For example, in Dubai, there is a transfer to flights to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region and the Indian Ocean from many Moscow flights. The development of air transport infrastructure means a lot to the United Arab Emirates. Transforming the country into a tourist and transportation hub, the UAE takes care of expanding the most profitable sectors of the economy that do not depend directly on the oil sector.



As in Norway, in the UAE, great attention is paid to the issues of switching to alternative methods of producing energy. The government of the Emirates invested 35 billion dollars in exemption from oil dependence. In Abu Dhabi, Masdar’s “city of the sun” is being built. This is the project of the first settlement in the world, which will be fully provided by solar energy and other renewable energy sources. Thus, the city will be free from harmful emissions. It is assumed that up to 50 thousand people will live in Masdara, and about 60 thousand more people will come to this city every day to work. The population of the city will consist of scientists, engineers, technicians working on various studies and developing their own projects.

The authorities of Dubai and other emirates pay great attention to the introduction of innovative technologies into the economy of the UAE. Thus, it is planned to gradually transfer the entire state management infrastructure to blockchain technology. Mohammed Al-Seli, General Director of ArabianChain Technology, believes that there are no obstacles in Dubai to transfer the state management system to the use of blockchain technologies. Now government agencies and private companies are working together to introduce blockchain technologies into the business and management of the emirate of Dubai.

The plans to jump off the oil needle is increasingly being announced by the Saudi authorities. Of course, the situation here is more complicated than in the UAE, considering both the large population and the large territory. But Saudi Arabia is increasingly seeking to invest in the development of other areas of the economy. The activities of wealthy and prosperous oil and gas exporters can become an example for Russia - in which direction should our country move in order to gradually reduce the economy’s dependence on the export of natural resources.
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 22 December 2017 06: 24 New
    +2
    The article is interesting, well read and useful for general development. There is one friend who lives in Oslo - she married a Norwegian. They have been living for a long time, and according to the stories, if short and clear, it’s not even bad ... But ... we still have better!
    1. Chertt
      Chertt 22 December 2017 06: 39 New
      12
      Quote: aszzz888
      The article is interesting, well read and useful for general development.

      The article is largely controversial. Hydrocarbon production appears to be evil. But the evil is not in the country receiving money from export, but in the fact that the Government of such a country is "relaxing" and considers it unnecessary to engage in the rest of the economy. That is a problem in the heads. The example of Dubai is also very doubtful. Replace oil sales with tourism (the industry is subject to the greatest risks) Well, a very dubious plan
      1. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 22 December 2017 09: 52 New
        +1
        Quote: Chertt
        Replace oil sales with tourism (the industry is subject to the greatest risks) Well, a very dubious plan

        combined with a whole city populated by specialists not related to trade ... and with renewable energy sources ????
      2. Soho
        Soho 22 December 2017 11: 21 New
        +5
        the level of costs and preferences that the Saudis set for indigenous citizens is unlikely to be supported through the tourism business.
      3. andrewkor
        andrewkor 23 December 2017 05: 51 New
        +1
        Little Bahrain is developing the industrial sector very successfully: aluminum production at Australian bauxite is ALBA 500000 tons of aluminum per year, a powerful ship repair base is the world's largest dry dock for 500000 tons of tankers, and the textile industry is tourism and banking.
      4. misti1973
        misti1973 25 December 2017 00: 22 New
        0
        Absolutely dubious! Especially, together with the aggression against Yemen and the bodyguard. It looks like populism that accompanies a change of power. Such a quiet coup :)
    2. 210ox
      210ox 22 December 2017 12: 05 New
      +3
      Certainly better ... On the needle, then ... And you don’t need to think about anything else except herself .. And in pockets and stashes full ... But not with you. And the one who owns this well. And we don’t threaten to get off the needle .. For we don’t have it
      Quote: aszzz888
      The article is interesting, well read and useful for general development. There is one friend who lives in Oslo - she married a Norwegian. They have been living for a long time, and according to the stories, if short and clear, it’s not even bad ... But ... we still have better!
    3. stalkerwalker
      stalkerwalker 22 December 2017 12: 37 New
      +4
      Quote: aszzz888
      There is one friend who lives in Oslo - she married a Norwegian. They have been living for a long time, and according to short and clear stories, it’s not even bad.

      It’s good there, but we don’t need to go there ..... laughing
      The essence of the article is that the money from the sale of oil and gas remained. Question - where to put them?
      And here - a lot of options. But mostly these are speculative financial markets.
      At the same time, the Norwegian government is implementing a slow but steady reduction in jobs. I see this with the example of the pilotage service - over the past 10 years, the number of pilots has decreased by about 40-50%. Salaries of pilots are increased, but not in the same proportion as the load increases. Although by the standards of our pilots - the Norwegians have a solid sinecure.
    4. misti1973
      misti1973 25 December 2017 00: 26 New
      0
      Especially to someone who lives at someone else’s expense. And these are not only thieves-officials, they are also bastards of a lower rank who do not pay taxes or salaries to employees. It’s also a dumb “cotton wool” that is ready to harass any propaganda. That's all good it is that no words!
  2. Knowing
    Knowing 22 December 2017 06: 31 New
    0
    For alternative methods of obtaining email. we have already read the energies, so I would like to advise the Norwegians to engage in ... agriculture. But Cho’s to fall to the roots ... Well, the Saudis - to develop, promote camel farming ... collecting wool, barter ... Exchange in kind. This is for them. repeat
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 22 December 2017 06: 42 New
    +6
    can become an example for Russia
    But for some reason, the Russian “eggheads” do not want to rely on positive foreign experience, but try to copy the entire system completely without considering Russian characteristics.
  4. Nix1986
    Nix1986 22 December 2017 07: 27 New
    +2
    This is a natural course of things, because only idiots can don’t think about tomorrow. I won’t write, otherwise I’ll be kneaded by local posttreots :)) In general, oil products will still be in demand, no one canceled plastic and other petrochemicals.
  5. San Sanych
    San Sanych 22 December 2017 07: 27 New
    +2
    Like it or not, oil and gas are not infinite, and given that renewable energy is now able to compete with traditional sources of energy, those countries that refuse the oil needle are worthy of respect, and the sooner this is done, the better.
    1. Alexy
      Alexy 22 December 2017 15: 05 New
      +1
      I do not agree. Until a real energy revolution occurs, hydrocarbons will dominate energy production. Renewable energy sources exist exclusively on state. subsidies.
    2. misti1973
      misti1973 25 December 2017 00: 30 New
      0
      About renewable energy - a lie! Very expensive. Especially in maintenance. Kilowat / hour is at least three times more expensive than when using nuclear power plants.
  6. Strashila
    Strashila 22 December 2017 08: 34 New
    0
    "Norwegian oil attracts many buyers, including the neighboring Baltic states, who are terribly concerned about their energy dependence on Russian resources and expect to sooner or later reduce this dependence by reorienting to Norway." ... yes the dream of the poor ... pay for that the same ... but more expensive, like we have a dough, like a fool shag.
  7. Antianglosax
    Antianglosax 22 December 2017 09: 33 New
    +4
    The activities of wealthy and prosperous oil and gas exporters can be an example for Russia as well - in which direction should our country move in order to gradually reduce the economy’s dependence on the export of natural resources.

    But how will our thieves ’ortka eat? On a par with everyone? laughing
  8. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 22 December 2017 09: 41 New
    +9
    it’s strange to hear about the Norwegian oil needle, given that all of our new fishing trawlers are being built according to Norwegian projects, buying Norwegian equipment for them is just the “needle” for you
    1. valerij zviozdkin
      valerij zviozdkin 27 September 2020 05: 14 New
      0
      For 19 years I have not been in your Russian state, and that was the last time we visited Sovetsk in drunken garnards. It's stupid how many millions of your normal workers are wandering around Europe. Valerka, lithuania.
  9. thinker
    thinker 22 December 2017 09: 49 New
    +3
    In Abu Dhabi, the construction of the "city of the sun" Masdar.

    Probably, it is worth mentioning the construction of four nuclear power plants at once.
    The UAE in 2009 signed with a Korean consortium led by Korea Electric Power Corp. The contract for the construction of four nuclear reactors with a capacity of 250 megawatts each in the town of Baraka 1400 km from Abu Dhabi for a total of $ 20,4 billion. It is expected that the Baraka NPP will be fully commissioned in 2020, it will provide about a quarter of the country's electricity needs ... The readiness of the first reactor for launch is 96%, second, third and fourth 54%, 76% and 86%, respectively.
    1. Nikolay73
      Nikolay73 22 December 2017 10: 14 New
      0
      ... vo-in, very true, in my opinion, remark ...;)
    2. Simargl
      Simargl 24 December 2017 14: 04 New
      +2
      And it is worth mentioning the draconian terms of the contracts and the practically disempowered position. not citizens (as well as foreign firms)?
      It is worth mentioning that of citizens countries there less than 20%?
  10. Nikolay73
    Nikolay73 22 December 2017 10: 06 New
    +1
    “Of course, the situation here is more complicated than in the UAE, given the large population and large territory. But Saudi Arabia is also increasingly seeking to invest in other areas of the economy. The activities of wealthy and successful oil and gas exporters can be an example for Russia as well.” - in what direction should our country move in order to gradually reduce the dependence of the economy on the export of natural resources. " ... and yet, no one gets away with anything, the investment package of the pension fund is changing, and the fact that their analysts so decided, well, yes, they decided so ... the question for me is different, why do we live with all our wealth not so good (just ask Putin not to drag in)? Although, what may be the questions, everything is clear.
  11. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 December 2017 10: 19 New
    +4
    I’m embarrassed to ask, have we already passed our peak of oil dawn, paradise and prosperity? If so, I somehow did not notice him. Or is it all ahead of us? By the way, a good carrot for a donkey, before the election.
    You look at the "oil curse" of Norway, Saudi Arabia, and bad thoughts climb into your head. Why is it wrong with us?
    1. Nikolay73
      Nikolay73 22 December 2017 10: 32 New
      +6
      ... there is one thing that surprises me in this - they value themselves, their resources, their old people, their prisoners at last and with all this, they are the same people, we lack community and mutual respect, but with gas, oil and other things we are all right ...
  12. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 December 2017 10: 39 New
    0
    Well, you remember: "Our earth is large and plentiful, but there is no order in it ......"
    It's not our fault, this place is lol
    1. Nikolay73
      Nikolay73 22 December 2017 10: 45 New
      0
      ...Yeah... hi
  13. DimanC
    DimanC 22 December 2017 11: 56 New
    0
    The phrase about a "sovereign" oil fund was touched. Where the owners of the money will order them to invest, this “sovereign” fund will invest there. This fund is not at all a bag of Norwegians. They threw a bone in the form of a relatively prosperous and well-fed life and shut their mouths from unnecessary questions.
  14. NF68
    NF68 22 December 2017 16: 51 New
    +3
    The development of new oil and gas fields for Norway is not cheap and at current oil and gas prices one has to sacrifice something, and in this case, investments in this industry have been sacrificed.
  15. turbris
    turbris 22 December 2017 18: 24 New
    +2
    "The activities of wealthy and prosperous oil and gas exporters can also be an example for Russia - in which direction our country should move in order to gradually reduce the economy’s dependence on natural resources exports." It certainly is, but the author should pay attention to who and with whom he compares. Can Norway, Saudi Arabia, the UAE be compared with Russia? These are absolutely incomparable things - neither by population, nor by territory and infrastructure, the total is only comparable volumes of oil and gas production. What experience of these mini states can be applied in Russia? No, because what they can afford in terms of population (Saudi Arabia - 33 million people; UAE - 9 million 400 thousand people; Norway - 5 million 236 thousand people) can not always be applied in Russia. Therefore, Russia needs its own experience of slipping off an oil needle.
  16. Scopolamine
    Scopolamine 22 December 2017 22: 10 New
    +1
    This is all the chatter on the stock exchange game for a fall. Then someone will buy at a very reasonable price and drive the pendulum in the other direction. It doesn’t really go down but I want to, but it seems that the exchange Pinocchio has forgotten how to squat on the swing. Therefore, my reassurance is that you do not believe the fools and do not repeat their words. The "oil needle" is double-edged. In the most favorable position, its owner who does not share with anyone. The first is given the second is realized soon.
    1. misti1973
      misti1973 25 December 2017 00: 36 New
      0
      This is only written for fools! Nobody plays on the exchange like that. Moreover, those who read it here are far from exchange transactions :)
  17. valerij zviozdkin
    valerij zviozdkin 27 September 2020 04: 48 New
    0
    It is interesting to work at sea. At the bottom of the oceans of oil, gas, ferro-manganese nodules in bulk. Sorry. Thank you. Ride under water :)