Military Review

Project "ZZ". New year war

33
Russian and Chinese are developing a strategic plan. Beijing and Moscow will attack the US military in the event that Washington unleashes a war on the Korean Peninsula. General Van Hongguan predicts the beginning of the war in the near future: from now to March 2018. It is proposed to mobilize the population of the northeast regions of China for "defense." Global conflicts 2018 of the year, and other foreign experts argue. Optimistic forecasts for some reason not. Exceptionally pessimistic.


Project "ZZ". New year war

DPRK television announces the consistent strengthening of the country's military potential. Frame taken from the magazine «Newsweek»


According to two Chinese former military officials, China and Russia can develop a plan of attack for American troops. The attack will take place in the event of the outbreak of war by the Americans on the neighboring Korean Peninsula. This is written by Tom O'Connor in the journal Newsweek.

Lt. Gen. Wang Hongguan, the former deputy commander of the Western Military District of Nanjing, openly warns: "The war on the Korean Peninsula can break out at any time, from now to March next year."

"China must be psychologically prepared for a possible war in Korea, and for this, the regions in northeastern China must be mobilized," said Comrade Wang, who published his speech on The Global Times. “Such mobilization does not mean the start of the war [by China], but involves defensive goals,” the expert said.

On this subject, the general spoke at a conference organized by the ruling Communist Party.

The next day, the forecast was “expanded” with comments from another military expert, commentator and publicist - Song Zhongping. He said that China could respond to US forces if they "pose a threat."

Comrade Sun served earlier in the PLA Second Artillery Corps, later transformed into rocket troops. According to him, the “defensive targets” mentioned by the general are likely to include contingency plans. This refers to the Chinese response to any violation of Chinese sovereignty in the event of an American invasion, O'Connor said.

In a separate interview, Sun also said that the high-tech anti-missile exercises recently held by China and Russia in Beijing were in fact the joint efforts of the two leading US military competitors to work out defense against President Donald Trump's possible attack, which is increasingly at odds with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un .

Earlier, China and Russia, recalls the publication, joined the United States, condemning the buildup of nuclear and missile arsenal by North Korea, which, it is believed, Comrade Kim is necessary to protect against the US attempt to overthrow the said Kim. At the same time, Beijing and Moscow strongly opposed the expansionism of the American military forces in the Asia-Pacific region.

Comrade Song said that the main purpose of the joint exercises of China and Russia is a signal for the United States, which has "both ballistic and cruise missiles," and they "can pose a real threat to both Beijing and Moscow." Therefore, joint missile defense exercises are a sign of commitment to the concept of strategic deterrence. The Chinese and Russians want to push the US to withdraw THAAD anti-missile systems from the Korean Peninsula.

The Pentagon, the author recalls, at one time argued that missile defense (namely THAAD) is necessary to protect a US ally from a possible missile attack from the "northern opponent". However, China and Russia have criticized this kind of “defense,” since it clearly undermines their national security. And as Trump's attitude toward North Korea became more and more militant, his strategy was becoming less popular with China and Russia.

Bottom line: while Comrade Kim continues to expand his arsenal, banned by the UN, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are simultaneously strengthening their military and political influence "around the world." In the US, they see this: in the Trump's National Security Strategy, promulgated last Monday, the White House condemned not only Kim Jong-un's “nuclear regime,” but also China and Russia’s attempts to “challenge American power, influence and interests.”

Apparently, we should note that this kind of geopolitical confrontation, which is aggravated every week, and gave the Chinese military experts a reason to exacerbate the situation and even the military clash between China, Russia and the United States. And of course, between North and South Korea.

Global conflicts 2018 of the year, and other foreign experts argue.

Uri Friedman and Annabelle Timsit in "The Atlantic" even a map with priorities was drawn. In their opinion, the most unpredictable political player in the world is not the DPRK. The most unpredictable - the USA!


Map source: www.theatlantic.com


"Today, the United States is the most unpredictable actor in the world, and it is deeply disturbing," said Paul Steyrs, director of the Center for Preventive Action (CFR), which is engaged in an annual assessment of this kind of data.

If until now it was possible to talk about the stable state of the United States, now the United States has fallen into the list of the largest sources of unpredictability and insecurity. No one can be sure how the White House will react to the situation. And this is especially pronounced under President Trump. After all, it was Trump who said: “I don’t want people to know exactly what I’m doing or thinking.”

The unpredictability of America, which hit the world like a snowdrift, is most apparent in two scenarios that CFR built on the opinions of 436 government officials and foreign policy experts.

Scenario one: a military conflict involving the United States, North Korea and North Korea’s neighbors.

Scenario two: military confrontation between Iran and the United States, as well as relevant allies.

These perceived military crises are rated as the most “risky”.

Experts believe that any hostilities on the Korean Peninsula may result in the use of nuclear weapons. There are three main reasons for this: the “war of words” between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un; North Korea’s rapid success in developing missiles that the United States can reach; Trump and his advisers repeated threats to take military action if they deem it necessary.

Retired Admiral James Stavridis and John Brennan, director of the CIA under Barack Obama, give the Korean War high chances. Stavridis "put" on a non-nuclear conflict between the United States and North Korea (from 20 to 50 percent). The chances of nuclear war are about 10 percent. Brennan mentioned Trump's unpredictability as an important factor, and he estimated the chances of a deadly war at 20-25%. According to him, North Korea "does not want to initiate a major military conflict." And for many years, the United States also "did not want to initiate a conflict." However, it is completely impossible to guess what Trump is capable of.


Photo source: www.globallookpress.com


Currently, there is also an "increased likelihood of American-Iranian confrontation," indicates the publication. The cause of the war can be a whole range of “explosive” problems: from Iran’s missile and nuclear programs to its struggle for influence in Syria and Iraq. It is also necessary to take into account Tehran’s support for Yemeni, Lebanese and Palestinian groups, which local US allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, are “vehemently opposing”.

As for Russia, the deterioration of relations with it can also lead to military escalation. The “outbreak” can happen “in Eastern Europe,” says Steyrs. In the meantime, Comrade Xi Jinping can again become "more persistent" in the South China Sea ...

Finally, “wild” comments were received from other respondents. According to Steyrs, among such reviews was the forecast that Trump declared “war on China”. True, the "wild" opinions from the experts received a little.

* * *


The site «Bloomberg» The other day, the new Pessimist's Guide (The Pessimist's Guide) has been released. Black cards contain a list of terrible events that are supposed to happen in the foreseeable future. The period of the gloomy New Year forecast - 2018-2028. "Pessimistic guide" could be given the following name: "Japan with nuclear missiles, and the Russians with Nabiullina in the Kremlin."

Among the main topics of futurists: Tokyo will get nuclear missiles; Facebook, and with it, Twitter will be buried under a barrage of fake information; Russia will rule Nabiullina; the banking system will collapse under the powerful pressure of bitcoins; oil will cost only ten bucks a barrel. But the most important thing for America: Mr. Trump in the United States will be elected for a second term!

Under such scenarios, one really does not have to believe in the stability of the political situation. But Russia, of course, will survive. Contrary to all pessimistic forecasts.
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  1. Same lech
    Same lech 20 December 2017 09: 20
    28
    China and Russia can develop a plan of attack for US troops.


    what Damn ... I'm sitting here fumbling over the plan of attack on WASHINGTON ...
    the table is small ... the first strike division does not fit ... placed tanks on the floor ... thrust the rockets into the toilet so that the enemy would not bomb the planes ... Eun is hiding under his bed with his nurek ... in the morning I’ll start the attack ... as if The CIA didn’t disclose my plans to attack the United States ... I’ll go and shut the curtains on the windows and doors. smile
    1. Grandfather
      Grandfather 20 December 2017 09: 27
      +9
      Experts believe that any military action on the Korean peninsula could result in the use of nuclear weapons.
      as Commander-in-Chief, I understand Una, if there is a real threat to the existence of the country, yes, it will use nuclear weapons ((by the way, we have the same Doctrine),
      1. AST507
        AST507 20 December 2017 09: 41
        +8
        This is not only you understand, but also the United States with friends. smile Then the question is, why provoke?
        1. BecmepH
          BecmepH 20 December 2017 11: 27
          11
          Quote: AST507
          This is not only you understand, but also the United States with friends. smile Then the question is, why provoke?

          Db?
          1. Zavalan
            Zavalan 21 December 2017 08: 47
            0
            For a long time already there were no doubts.
            Yes, but how to change the flag, I live in Russia, no matter how anyone else wants.
          2. Foxmara
            Foxmara 21 December 2017 12: 01
            0
            Quote: BecmepH
            Db?

            No, just trying to bend. Most likely because they don’t really want to fight, but at least some victory is needed. Option to intimidate and skim the cream - Trump in the US will be all in white. Well, because they are used to in recent years, that it turns out to bend. At the same time, there are probably those in the USA who want to fight, but this is not Trump. The president who started the war and received a nuclear strike will not even live to see the end of his first term, not only as a politician, but probably just as a person.
    2. Chertt
      Chertt 20 December 2017 09: 47
      10
      forecasts built by the CFR (Center for Preventive Action) on the opinions of 436 government officials and foreign policy experts.
      I am after the New Year holidays. I’ll also open a couple of “centers” for myself, or Observatories or Institutes .... And the opinions of 436 “experts on foreign policy” I’ll be at VO, I’ll collect in an hour
      1. Grandfather
        Grandfather 20 December 2017 09: 55
        +4
        Quote: Chertt
        forecasts built by the CFR (Center for Preventive Action) on the opinions of 436 government officials and foreign policy experts.
        I am after the New Year holidays. I’ll also open a couple of “centers” for myself, or Observatories or Institutes .... And the opinions of 436 “experts on foreign policy” I’ll be at VO, I’ll collect in an hour

        me, you can ask directly during the holidays ... because, I- "never get drunk" ... drinks
    3. passerby5
      passerby5 23 December 2017 18: 34
      0
      you’re the main thing at first, but before that, collect all the data about the gold vaults, keep them secret (from themselves) and a priori-chob locks they couldn’t open before we arrived)))))
  2. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 20 December 2017 09: 23
    +3
    For some reason there are no optimistic forecasts. Exceptionally pessimistic.
    Even if you wish, you will not scratch optimistic forecasts - there is no fertile soil for them. Everything is overgrown with American weed. But still I want to hope for the best for the future of children, grandchildren.
  3. Loess
    Loess 20 December 2017 09: 25
    +3
    "Today, the United States is the most unpredictable actor in the world, and it is deeply disturbing," said Paul Steyrs, director of the Center for Preventive Action (CFR), which is engaged in an annual assessment of this kind of data.
    Surprised ... Surprised that this phrase was expressed publicly and not by RT journalist. True, I still have not heard of such a center, but anyway - surprised.
    1. Chertt
      Chertt 20 December 2017 09: 41
      +3
      Quote: Less
      though I still have not heard of such a center

      Preventive Action Center (CFR) rents one double room from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR)
      1. Lexus
        Lexus 20 December 2017 14: 03
        +2
        Judging by the fact that they designated Chamber 404 on the map as “predictable,” apparently this headquarters APARTMENT is located there bully
      2. valerij
        valerij 20 December 2017 22: 17
        +2
        There are only two of them there .., one from the Syrian Observatory, the other from the Center. They take turns sleeping, one clamshell, etc.
  4. Krasnyiy komissar
    Krasnyiy komissar 20 December 2017 09: 39
    +5
    If at least one tomahawk flies into the territory of Russia during the hostilities, then we must immediately respond with a massive strike by the Iskanders and long-range aircraft to US bases in the South Caucasus and Japan, as well as the destruction of enemy AUGs off our coasts. There is simply no other way out of this situation, unless, of course, the complete surrender of the country to the Anglo-Saxons is taken into account.
    1. Chertt
      Chertt 20 December 2017 10: 03
      +5
      Quote: Krasnyiy komissar
      If at least one tomahawk flies into the territory

      Quote: Krasnyiy komissar
      as well as the destruction of enemy AUGs on our shores

      Quote: Krasnyiy komissar
      and long-range aviation to US bases

      laughing You have already begun to celebrate. Wait two more weeks drinks
      1. Grandfather
        Grandfather 20 December 2017 10: 08
        +1
        Quote: Chertt
        You have already begun to celebrate. Wait two more weeks

        who is happy holiday .... drinks
  5. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov 20 December 2017 09: 47
    +2
    Futurologists! What to take from them.
  6. BecmepH
    BecmepH 20 December 2017 11: 30
    +2
    General Wang Hongguan predicts the outbreak of war in the near future: from the current moment to March 2018.
    Hurry ... already this March has passed
  7. Nemesis
    Nemesis 20 December 2017 11: 46
    11
    In the USA, a film was shot twice with the name (Red Dawn), where Cuba from the USSR, then North Korea from the Russian Federation attack the USA ... And all because the USA regularly spoils many countries and subconsciously fears that sooner or later they will will receive a military response that will pull their legs out and put them in their ears ...
    1. Yanakolos
      Yanakolos 20 December 2017 22: 52
      +1
      Films like this are to keep their people in good shape, to remember that the enemy is both an insidious enemy, and an evil one, and even an aggressive one, who strives for US tar to let tar in honey, one thing against such a terrible enemy the facility is a huge American army. And then, tell everyone that nobody is going to fight America - taxpayers can become insolent and demand a reduction in the armed forces of America
  8. ImPerts
    ImPerts 20 December 2017 11: 55
    0
    Here already slipped:
    Pentagon chief James Mattis said the power of the US Armed Forces provides American diplomats the opportunity to speak with representatives of other states from a position of strength
  9. cannabis
    cannabis 20 December 2017 13: 54
    +3
    Experts, futurologists, tuftologists ..... how many predictors there are! But the most accurate predictors are FATALISTS! They know that once a Fatt satellite fell to the ground. Therefore, the fatalists are firmly convinced that something will happen .... it is not known when, where and how, but for sure something will happen.
  10. Rurik
    Rurik 20 December 2017 17: 51
    +2
    Russia will be ruled by Nabiullina

    This is really scary, scary to imagine
    1. Gloomy
      Gloomy 20 December 2017 23: 12
      0
      Even the war with mattresses doesn’t scare me like that.
  11. Sergey Cojocari
    Sergey Cojocari 20 December 2017 22: 00
    +2
    I would not really count on the Russians in the place of the Chinese. As the saying goes, "the Russians are no longer the same as they were in the year 45, for money changers entered their churches."
  12. Kirill Kalashnikov
    Kirill Kalashnikov 20 December 2017 22: 05
    +2
    nothing will be, calm down. Normal air shake
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. Valery Gogolyuk
    Valery Gogolyuk 20 December 2017 22: 13
    +4
    As my friend at the academy at OTMS (organization and tactics of medical service) said, like ....- all the formulas will fly out of the head .... We solved the problems of sanitary losses during a nuclear strike of small, medium and high power .... From of a division of 10000, 330 people remain ... There will be no winners .... 2-3 seconds after the launch by the States, our rocket flies away ... It's sad all this ....
  15. nickgv
    nickgv 20 December 2017 22: 30
    +1
    Unfortunately (fortunately), Americans are considering the possible risks before undertaking anything (in the sense of aggression). The option with the DPRK bodes a lot of problems, from losing a person (image) to unacceptable damage to its own contingent. Therefore, all this epic with promises to end ... resembles the bullshit of an offended dog and nothing more.
    1. Lycan
      Lycan 21 December 2017 09: 39
      0
      Quote: nickgv
      from loss of face (image)

      How can one lose that which is not? And there is a mask that can be worn immediately after the conflict ends (competent propaganda and brainwashing, such as luring Japan (in the post-war years) and South Korea and Taiwan (already in the 50s) to the side of their interests).
      Quote: nickgv
      to unacceptable damage to its own contingent of aircraft

      They think about it. And what does “unacceptable damage to the contingent” mean, given the presence of the SGA:
      - drones,
      - more advanced general aviation,
      - high precision. weapons ("axes", etc.)
      - high-altitude bombers,
      - chemical. prohibited ammunition ("What is allowed to Jupiter - not allowed to a bull ...")?
      - army debugged navigation and observation system,
      - more numerous. and advanced fleet.
      --------------------
      Quote: nickgv
      Because all this epic with promises to end ... resembles the bullshit of an offended dog and only

      And also - consolidation of positions near China and Russia - i.e. another point that must be intensively scanned around the clock in full combat readiness. And not only because of the rocket hazard.
  16. enmesher
    enmesher 21 December 2017 11: 15
    0
    [quote = Grandfather] [quote] (by the way, we have the same Doctrine), [/ quote]
    But then, if you do not use nuclear weapons in case of a direct threat of the destruction of the state?)))
  17. Cat Marquis
    Cat Marquis 22 December 2017 07: 59
    +2
    One of the methods to make a woman go to bed: "scare, and then hurry" .... it works well in modern politics, when you need to drive the next "sheep" in the right "stall" ....
  18. Conductor
    Conductor 24 December 2017 21: 59
    0
    Directly military Nostradamus !!!