Military Review

Will the political crisis in Germany become a “quiet” forerunner of the situation in Russia-2024?

Against the backdrop of the hardest political crisis in Germany and the rushing of Britain with Brexit questions, the European Union is coming to celebrate Christmas. And the celebration, as already reported in several Western European countries, “would be better organized in the family circle” in order “not to provoke” representatives of other (non-Christian) communities. Yes, and the very concept of "Christmas" would be better to say less often, so as not to break out of the framework of tolerance and "respect for the rights of other religions."

Against this backdrop, new popularity records are beating European nationalists. So, sociological polls in Germany show that if the elections to the Bundestag were held this Sunday, then Merkel’s party members would have gained about 4% fewer votes than it did at the recent real parliamentary elections. At the same time, the Alternative for Germany would receive more than three percent of the additional votes.

These indicators of public opinion once again indicate that the policy of the European ruling elites is finding less and less support among ordinary citizens of the same Germany.

Being in a political deadlock, the “ruling” elites of the FRG, led by politically incapable (for the time being) Angela Merkel, are forced to offer new ideas in order to form at least some kind of government. And with the help of this “at least some kind of government” try again to gain popularity among the population.

Of the latest political steps in the Bundestag, the readiness of the conservative CDU / CSU Merkel bloc to go closer to yesterday's main opponent Martin Schulz from the SPD on virtually any conditions is voiced. And the top of the German Social Democrats approved the proposal of Schultz to start preliminary negotiations with the "Merkelevans".

TASS cites a statement by Schulz, whose party (SPD) won 20,5% in the last German parliamentary elections (last result - 25,7 percent):
I reported to the party board about my talks with the leadership of the partners. We came to the conclusion that we can offer to begin the probing negotiations on the formation of the government. The board of the party supported my proposal unanimously.

If the CDU / CSU still agrees on a temporary coalition with the SPD, then these parties in the Bundestag will have 399 seats from 709, which means you can start forming a government. Will they have time for the Christmas holidays?

If the formation drags on indefinitely, then a shaky coalition (which has not yet been created properly) could lose even more supporters than it had already lost since the previous elections, when the conservative bloc Angela Merkel had 41,5% of votes, in contrast to current xnumx percent.

In order to enlist the support of the electorate - in case of failure of the next coalition negotiations and, as a result, in the case of extraordinary parliamentary elections, representatives of the ruling elites still generate proposals that are difficult to disregard. Thus, the Minister of Internal Affairs of Germany, Thomas de Mezieres, representing the CDU / CSU bloc, launched an initiative on one of the most painful topics for modern Germans. This topic concerns refugees, more precisely, how long the so-called “open door” policy promoted by Merkel will continue.

Considering that Merkel's rating continues to creep down, de Maiziere, as a man with a keen political sense of smell and considerable experience, decided to distance himself somewhat from the current acting chancellor.

Thomas de Maiziere stated that he could not continue like this and that refugee flows seriously threaten the security of the Federal Republic of Germany.

According to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the number of refugees from countries in Asia and Africa has decreased this year, but the immigrants still continue to arrive. So, since the beginning of the year, according to the German Ministry of the Interior, about 173 thousands of refugees have entered the country. This is the official statistics. Unofficial - at least three times higher. About the fact that someone from Germany left, returning back to Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Eritrea and other countries, de Mezieres did not say a word.

To declare the immediate expulsion of a huge number of refugees from Germany, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, of course, did not dare, as yet a member of the Merkel conservative bloc. But on the other hand, realizing that Merkel might not be at the helm of the new cabinet, he brought up a “soft version” of solving the issue of reducing the number of immigrants.

This “soft option” fits into modern European-bureaucratic politics. From the refugees who have already moved into Germany, Mr. de Mezieres proposes a trivial redemption: to give money so that they “forever” leave the territory of the FRG. At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Germany said that "a return prevention system was thought out." It consists in the following: the refugee confirms his desire to return to his native country, signs a kind of contract with the German authorities; in turn, they “escort” the refugee to their home “hearth,” and only after arriving home return a certain amount to his personal account. What amount this can be is not directly stated, but de Meziere himself notes that the refugees who have returned home will be able to use the funds solely for the repair of existing housing or, as part, for the purchase of a new one (to replace the destroyed one). Also, a refugee who, under such conditions, agrees to leave Germany to his home, enters the base of the border service as a person who will be denied refugee status next time.

De Maizieres:
All this is in the interest of German taxpayers. Refugees will be able to adapt in their home countries.

However, analysts on the subject of how much Germany can do with just such a program to send refugees home are not presented. If we assume that the program will voluntarily want to use at least 100 thousands of refugees (out of several millions living in Germany), and if everyone de Mezieres together with the government distributes (offhand) 3 thousand euros (less they are unlikely to be offered, they risk getting zero go away "), this is already a third of a billion euros. On the one hand, it is cheaper than to feed refugees in Germany itself and cheaper than what Erdogan requires. But if Erdogan is paid, he will definitely keep the refugees, and then - by right or wrong, in a year or two they can return. Did German burghers eager to touch the soft spots once stopped the prohibitive databases of EU border guards? .. In the end, after receiving funds, they can declare that they have restored their housing, but the “mean Asad executioners” have again destroyed it - give more money, but then we will return to the banks of the Rhine with the addition of families ... By the way, payments can provoke a new wave of refugees in the FRG precisely because they also give money for returning back.

At first glance, the topic is not worthy of any small attention in Russia. We would be here to figure out with our guests from the sunny republics. But in fact, the question is much wider than the German borders and only migration policy.

In the absence of a single ruling force in Berlin, the whole of Europe turns out to be dependent on ill-considered political decisions of those who want to gain an electoral rating in the country, the main economic locomotive of the EU. And while they are trying to accuse Russia of interfering in the internal affairs of the Federal Republic of Germany, Germany itself is slipping into the direction of resuscitation of radical right-wing ideas against the background of the absolute toothlessness of the current government. At this moment, even in such an economically strong power as Germany, a man may appear at the helm, who will gain the trump cards in the game of contradictions. And we say that President Putin will not find a worthy successor for himself. Or, in Russia, as in Germany, the selection of successors initially looks meaningless? ... After all, Germany is under external control with an almost 40-thousandth occupying military contingent, with a gold reserve in the US, and there is still nothing to lose. But Russia has something to lose, or ...

2024 is the year that the "friends of Russia" are waiting for, really not far off. Do you and I also have to watch how, in the absence of a real leader in power, foul-smelling ferments begin? And if we take into account that calmly and in a civilized way we cannot by definition (in the absence of an iron stick) fight for power, there are, to put it mildly, certain fears. You understand what this is about ...
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  1. ImPerts
    ImPerts 19 December 2017 05: 53 New
    2024 year, which is so awaited by the "friends of Russia," is actually just around the corner.

    Bloomberg is already drawing scary predictions for 24 and beyond, preparing to say so. One of the thoughts. that he wanders around nets and heads, that when in February 2018 r Americans start to steal the stolen goods, then the "ilita" will organize a riot. So everything can begin much earlier. And the wait is not long.
    1. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich 19 December 2017 06: 07 New
      Will the political crisis in Germany become a “quiet” forerunner of the situation in Russia-2024?
      Alexey Volodin ... did I miss something? have you tested the "time machine", or is it still in state tests? Who knows for 2024? Tomorrow we don’t know what will happen. "coffee grounds" is not serious ... the situation changes unexpectedly, and "we cannot predict ..." (C).
      1. Sergey-svs
        Sergey-svs 19 December 2017 06: 17 New
        The year 2024, which the "friends of Russia" is waiting for, is actually just around the corner. Are we really going to have to watch how, in the absence of a real leader in power, stinking fermentations begin ...

        Yes, it will be ok! wink Let’s choose the Darkest for another 6 years - even if it is beyond the western partners - it is nightmare! good You look, by that time, our bureaucrats-oligarchs with liberals had to learn how to "wet in the outhouse" .... yes
        laughing laughing laughing
      2. To be or not to be
        To be or not to be 19 December 2017 10: 10 New
        Take it cooler !!

        The President signed the Decree “On the Strategy for the Development of the Information Society in the Russian Federation for 2017–2030”. May 10, 2017.

        21 sept 2015 - The new "Strategy-2030", set by Dmitry Medvedev, experts predict a bright future.
        State Arms Program 2018–2027
  2. Fight
    Fight 19 December 2017 06: 02 New
    All this is in the interests of the German taxpayers. Refugees will be able to adapt to their home countries ... => WHAT DO THEY EAT ?? !!! fool
  3. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 19 December 2017 06: 15 New
    Will the political crisis in Germany become a “quiet” forerunner of the situation in Russia-2024?
    Do not expect. We have our own way. If in Germany, in 2017, “leakage”, then in 2024 we will have “deserts”.
  4. populist
    populist 19 December 2017 06: 24 New
    And we say that President Putin will not find a worthy successor for himself.

    How not to pick it up? And what about Medvedev? Once he was already. Will be again. The most convenient successor. And the electorate fool voted for him, probably, if he himself indicates. what
  5. aszzz888
    aszzz888 19 December 2017 06: 36 New
    Moreover, the celebration, as already reported in several countries of Western Europe, “it would be better to organize in the family circle”, so as not to “provoke” representatives of other (non-Christian) communities.

    ... I believe that Russia is not threatened, at least while the Darkest is in power ...
    1. igordok
      igordok 19 December 2017 08: 08 New
      Somewhat off topic, but maybe on the topic.

      If you think about it, it’s not at all funny.
      1. 32363
        32363 19 December 2017 11: 23 New
        Quote: igordok
        Somewhat off topic, but maybe on the topic.

        1. igordok
          igordok 19 December 2017 11: 51 New
          As they said, they blocked it. I looked at

          1. andj61
            andj61 19 December 2017 15: 55 New
            Quote: igordok
            As they said, they blocked it. I looked at

            And I looked on the phone, pre-enabling the VPN program. Everything is working hi
  6. Nix1986
    Nix1986 19 December 2017 07: 11 New
    And that we have no crisis ?! When in the election there is only one candidate representative of the current government and a bunch of pocket clowns and one pocket oppositionist ?!
  7. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 19 December 2017 07: 18 New
    Until 2024 g still need to survive. With the current situation in the world and the chaos of Americans, this issue becomes more urgent than who comes to power in 6 years.
  8. Rimlianin
    Rimlianin 19 December 2017 08: 21 New
    Nothing terrible will happen if the SPD comes to power in Germany, even in a coalition with ADG. The Germans will live well and Germany will be a great economy in the world. But why is the author so afraid if Putin is replaced by another president, and the EP goes into opposition? What kind of unprecedented successes have these comrades achieved in improving people's lives, raising the economy, medicine, education, that we are convulsively afraid of their departure?
  9. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 19 December 2017 08: 49 New
    "Political crisis" say .... garbage, in Germany such crises with each change of cabinet, more or less. Well, now a bit more, but everything is solved. Migrants are also squeezed out at times, if this is really done, it is enough to remove all benefits and free nishtyaki for them, leaving only receiving money to return home, which is actually proposed to be done. The author simply exaggerates the “problems”, his message is clear, look how even in “rich” Germany everything is so “bad” that there is “no clearance”, in fact, this is a long-held course of coverage of events in the Russian media - for fictitious “problems” hide your neighbors. wink
  10. Antianglosax
    Antianglosax 19 December 2017 10: 59 New
    Cool! First, the West for several centuries unchecked robbed almost the whole world, and now it shares with the looted robbed so that they, in turn, did not begin to rob the weakened degenerate West! Are Western savages generally normal?
  11. Overlock
    Overlock 19 December 2017 11: 09 New
    «in order to maintain economic stability, Merkel ravaged the political landscape for many years, in the interests of his party, lowering turnout. This led to the emergence of a critical mass of disappointed citizens who ultimately cast their ballots to the non-systemic opposition and provoked the largest government crisis in Germany’s post-war history. ”
    Editorial "Spiegel"
  12. 32363
    32363 19 December 2017 11: 26 New
    some Moldovans have come in large numbers, how they get to Germany is not yet clear.
    1. Overlock
      Overlock 19 December 2017 11: 56 New
      Moldova enters Schengen
  13. vlad007
    vlad007 19 December 2017 13: 20 New
    According to many experts, Putin’s most likely successor in 2024 is Dyumin Aleksey Gennadievich (born in 1972), the governor of the Tula region. The biography is in WIKI.
  14. turbris
    turbris 20 December 2017 14: 41 New
    I think that this does not threaten Russia - by 2024 both a receiver and a new leader will appear, although even psychics will not dare to think so far. What will be the world in 2024 - I hope that it will be.