Military Review

American bank warned about the risks of investment in Russia

65
American Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) in the forecast for 2018 year (Outlook-2018) warned its customers about the possible vulnerability of the ruble in connection with the new US sanctions, reports RIA News.




According to the forecast, sanctions may include “measures against the state debt of the Russian Federation”, which, in turn, may lead to the flight of investors into more stable currencies.

Analysts recalled that this was exactly the situation in the 2014 year.

Pressure may depend on the scale of the sanctions imposed. Namely, an attempt to completely disconnect Russia from foreign capital markets may cause a resumption of demand (for a more stable currency), it may be a jump, (demand) similar to what happened at the end of 2014,
the document says.

“As a result of these actions, the external debt of Russian companies (about half a trillion dollars) may be under pressure, although the external borrowings of the Russian Federation itself are not so great - the external sovereign debt of the Russian Federation accounts for about $ 14,5 billion,” analysts say the bank.

At the same time, they call the implementation of this pessimistic scenario unlikely.
Photos used:
http://www.globallookpress.com
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  1. Logall
    Logall 15 December 2017 09: 22
    +9
    Hammer in all directions! The western man lost his dream ... Everything about Russia and thinks-the western man in the street!
    1. Jedi
      Jedi 15 December 2017 09: 26
      +4
      Sanya, salute! hi
      Quote: Logall
      Hammer in all directions!

      How they can.
      Quote: Logall
      The western man lost his dream ... Everything about Russia and thinks-the western man in the street!

      The townsfolk - do not care. But big business can get it.
      1. Logall
        Logall 15 December 2017 09: 31
        +6
        Hi, Max!
        Big business problems - working class problems! And the well-being of the population ...
        1. Jedi
          Jedi 15 December 2017 09: 39
          +4
          Do you think that anyone in the US cares? No.
          1. Vladimir16
            Vladimir16 15 December 2017 10: 16
            +6
            Yes bullshit is all the election.
            Assad must leave, Putin must leave, and the State Department must come. Dogs are ravenous.
            And our media is fulfilling its "duty." They sow negative - aaaaaaaaa, everything is gone, the plaster is removed, the ruble is falling, we will all die ..... wassat
            If the ruble falls, we tighten our belts and live. Do not succumb to the mattresses. We’ll be wiser. Liberals from the government with a broom and the imprint of a soldier’s boot on their railroad.
    2. Vend
      Vend 15 December 2017 10: 10
      0
      Quote: Logall
      Hammer in all directions! The western man lost his dream ... Everything about Russia and thinks-the western man in the street!

      However, Russia is the strongest country. How many years it has been in different regimes, and everyone is afraid of it, until the turbidity
  2. Teberii
    Teberii 15 December 2017 09: 23
    +1
    Forewarned means armed, you need to scare too.
    1. Anarchist
      Anarchist 15 December 2017 09: 29
      10
      The more doors we have, the more crap! After all, then they themselves will have to clean up ... If these remain - they are!
    2. volodya
      volodya 15 December 2017 09: 42
      +5
      Quote: Teberii
      Forewarned means armed, you need to scare too.

      We also need to answer, but not so impudently, but more cunningly!
  3. solzh
    solzh 15 December 2017 09: 24
    +5
    Usual Russophobic propaganda of the United States. Our economy is more frightened inside the Russian situation.
  4. tchoni
    tchoni 15 December 2017 09: 28
    +1
    Citizens! Keep money in savings dollars!
    1. Anatole Klim
      Anatole Klim 15 December 2017 09: 44
      +4
      Quote: tchoni
      Citizens! Keep money in savings dollars!

      If you are quite young, then buy RMB for the future.
      China, the world's largest oil importer, is completing preparations for the launch of the renminbi denominated oil futures exchange on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Oil and derivatives trading is now traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the London Petroleum Exchange and the Dubai Mercantile Exchange. All 3 exchanges belong to one group - CME group. These trading floors manipulate the price of oil as they want - if they want, oil will cost $ 200, or vice versa $ 30. If a country - an oil exporter wants to organize its own oil exchange, then the same thing will happen to it as happened with Iran. Therefore, more than one country in the world has no oil exchange. In 2005, Iran decided to create an oil exchange, but the UN Security Council suddenly imposed sanctions against Iran and forbade all other countries to buy oil from Iran. The Chinese have already organized trading in gold futures denominated in RMB (since April 2016 in Shanghai and since July 2017 in Hong Kong), and now also trading in oil futures denominated in RMB. This means 2 fundamental things:
      1. Now the price of oil in RMB will appear and accordingly it will be possible to conclude contracts for oil in RMB.
      2. Now a company selling oil or other goods for RMB under a long-term contract will be able to simultaneously purchase a gold futures for the amount that it will gain from the sale of oil (or goods) at the same time as a contract. Those. it turns out that the yuan is provided with gold. https: //aftershock.news/? q = node / 559323 & am
      p; full
      1. Cat Marquis
        Cat Marquis 15 December 2017 11: 05
        +2
        Buy yuan allegedly backed by gold futures? And where to put these “gold futures” —they are not very liquid, unlike currency pools? All world trade is carried out through CURRENCY, and gold is bought only by central banks for hedging risks and some companies for jewelry and industrial use. That is, the need for gold is limited and gold futures are in little demand, but the currency is needed everywhere and by everyone just to trade it is banal, absolutely everything. The turnover of the currency-dollar and gold is simply not comparable in volume, gold is drawn an order of magnitude, if not more, less. The yuan will not replace the dollar for a simple reason — they don’t “believe” it and the Americans who control the global financial system will not “believe” it will not allow to increase confidence in it. Well, and besides, “on the nose” is the era of “blockchain” and “crypto” - when all these “dolaars,” “euros,” “yuan,” etc. will not be needed, they will be replaced by their “crypto” counterparts.
        1. Anatole Klim
          Anatole Klim 15 December 2017 13: 42
          0
          Quote: Cat Marquis
          The yuan will not replace the dollar for a simple reason — they don’t “believe” it and the Americans who control the global financial system will not “believe” it will not allow to increase confidence in it.

          I will not argue, I’m never a financier, not an economist, and not even an accountant. I gave a link to the above article. But nevertheless, let me also say that Comrade Hu Jintao called the American dollar a “product of the past” several years ago. According to him, Beijing intends to introduce a new global currency, the yuan, to the world market. More recently, at the last 19th Congress of the CCP, Comrade Xi Jinping paid much attention to the issue of "internationalization of the renminbi." All transactions are planned to be carried out exclusively in the national currency of the PRC, bypassing the dollar. Thus, Beijing plans to turn the yuan into a world currency, reduce dependence on the US in various countries and increase the need to keep its savings in Chinese.
          Well, and besides, “on the nose” is the era of “blockchain” and “crypto” - when all these “dolaars,” “euros,” “yuan,” etc. will not be needed, they will be replaced by their “crypto” counterparts.

          I'm old, I’m already mining bitcoins, I’m used to a wallet in my pocket, and I have a couple of cards, so it's not in my life
        2. Bossota
          Bossota 15 December 2017 18: 36
          +4
          “on the nose” is the era of “blockchain” and “crypto” —when all these “dolaars,” “euros,” “yuan,” etc. will not be needed, they will be replaced by their “crypto” counterparts.

          MMM new era these "crypto"
      2. sogdy
        sogdy 15 December 2017 11: 37
        0
        Quote: Anatol Klim
        China's largest world oil importer completes preparations for launch on Shanghai Stock Exchange

        And yet you know, and everywhere you have been ... Russia trades in rubles.
        Quote: Cat Marquis
        All world trade is through CURRENCY

        Nicho that this is not "trade", but the filling of the dollar with colonies?
        A _trade_ interstate always always ends up bartering.
        1. Monster_Fat
          Monster_Fat 15 December 2017 12: 03
          0
          A _trade_ interstate always always ends up bartering

          Yeah, "tanks for bananas, and bananas for .... well, what's next on the list, if you need to buy at the end, for example pipes"? .... Yes - "barter steers." wink And if you take both "pull yourself up" and "sell tanks for dollars and immediately buy pipes for the same dollars," don't? so harder? lol
          1. Vladimir16
            Vladimir16 15 December 2017 12: 34
            0
            Quote: sogdy

            A _trade_ interstate always always ends up bartering.

            Quote: Monster_Fat
            Yeah, "tanks for bananas, and bananas for ...

            And bananas as a result through a stomach in gov.no.
            That economists and talked. wassat
          2. sogdy
            sogdy 15 December 2017 14: 26
            0
            Quote: Monster_Fat
            And if you take both "pull yourself up" and "sell tanks for dollars and immediately buy pipes for the same dollars," don't? so harder?

            So yes, you need to be at least a little technologist to understand what nonsense you expressed.
            I recommend the "Sum of technology", there is a wonderful conceptual apparatus.
            And yes, in relation to Russia, “bananas” are expressed in workers and building materials. Not all Tajiks are from Tajikistan. And in which tugriks their state pays them - I doubt that in dollars.
        2. Anatole Klim
          Anatole Klim 15 December 2017 13: 50
          0
          Quote: sogdy
          And yet you know, and everywhere you have been ...

          There is not everything and not everywhere, but in general what kind of baby talk.
          Russia trades in rubles.

          The Russian ruble is mainly used in settlements in the EAEU countries, last year somewhere around 65-75% of all settlements were carried out in rubles, but the fact of the matter is that only 8% of all Russian trade falls on the EAEU countries, and with the rest in dollars and euros, somehow.
          1. sogdy
            sogdy 15 December 2017 14: 39
            0
            Quote: Anatol Klim
            The Russian ruble is mainly used in settlements in the EAEU countries, last year somewhere around 65-75% of all settlements were carried out in rubles, but the fact of the matter is that only 8% of all Russian trade falls on the EAEU countries, and with the rest in dollars and euros, somehow.

            Private trade proceeds according to its own rules, and through a bank loan - a security deposit on deposit. Otherwise, not a single operation in another state can be completed. These are the “huge amounts of debt” of private business that appear in the reports. These amounts only mean that the trading channel is open for such an amount. And they are repaid at the end of the banking session (usually a year).
            How does this all look like free enterprise, huh?
        3. tchoni
          tchoni 15 December 2017 17: 55
          +1
          Quote: sogdy
          And yet you know, and everywhere you have been ... Russia trades in rubles.

          Go to Yandex and see what the oil is estimated there, including Russian.
          1. sogdy
            sogdy 15 December 2017 18: 42
            0
            Quote: tchoni
            on Yandex and you will see

            And what should the search engine from Amsterdam tell me?
            For a particularly clever one, I explain: These are THEIR prices, these are their bugs scribbling with lots purchased from us, on our exchange. For over a year, our petroleum products have not been directly traded. Even through the "daughters". And they went on sale ONLY through our site for about three years now.
            Where do you get your knowledge? In the yellow press?
  5. Kot_Kuzya
    Kot_Kuzya 15 December 2017 09: 34
    +1
    Not surprising. After all, the ruble exchange rate and how much money you need to print in general depends entirely on the decision of the Central Bank of Russia, and the Central Bank is a branch of the Fed, no one, not even the President, the Prime Minister and the Parliament can force the Chairman of the Central Bank to resign, and the Council is nominated by the Council directors of the Central Bank, and the Parliament and the President only approve it. Read Art. 75 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Federal Law “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”. So the Russian economy is completely run overseas.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. Kot_Kuzya
        Kot_Kuzya 15 December 2017 09: 52
        0
        You also read the Regulation on the Bank of Ukraine. One to one with the Regulation of the Bank of Russia. I suspect that the Bank Regulations of all the former republics of the USSR, as well as the former republics of the Eastern bloc, and the Bank Regulations of the countries of Western Europe, and the countries of Latin America and Africa, all of them are made under carbon copy.
        1. Sergey53
          Sergey53 15 December 2017 11: 38
          +1
          Quote: Kot_Kuzya
          You also read the Regulation on the Bank of Ukraine. One to one with the Regulation of the Bank of Russia.

          So these provisions were composed by our red \ CHUBAIS \ along with comrades in the amount of 3 people from the CIA. He does not hide it.
        2. sogdy
          sogdy 15 December 2017 11: 43
          0
          Quote: Kot_Kuzya
          What Bank Regulations

          I don’t even argue. But what should flow from this?
        3. sogdy
          sogdy 15 December 2017 18: 49
          0
          Quote: Kot_Kuzya
          I suspect so

          Apparently, there will be no answer.
          Doesn’t it bother you that at your enterprise (in part) the chief accountant (chief finance) of your administration (command) is not subordinate? And under the USSR he did not obey.
          A little subtlety: the chief accountant / nachfin is responsible in his field on a par with the administration / command.
          1. Kot_Kuzya
            Kot_Kuzya 15 December 2017 20: 56
            0
            That is, Stalin or Khrushchev, could not dismiss or appoint the head of the State Bank of the USSR? Are you at all?
            1. sogdy
              sogdy 16 December 2017 17: 35
              0
              Quote: Kot_Kuzya
              That is, Stalin or Khrushchev, could not dismiss or appoint the head of the State Bank of the USSR?

              A read? Religion forbids ?! I recommend a single directory of specialties, rather than discourse on the topic.
              1. Kot_Kuzya
                Kot_Kuzya 16 December 2017 17: 53
                0
                Link to the Regulation on the State Bank of the USSR.
                1. sogdy
                  sogdy 16 December 2017 18: 57
                  0
                  Quote: Kot_Kuzya
                  to resign or appoint the head of the State Bank of the USSR?

                  Quote: Kot_Kuzya
                  Link to the Regulation on the State Bank of the USSR.

                  Boy, decide, these are two different documents.
                  The second is based on the principle of double-entry accounting (the "principle of double-entry bookkeeping"), but does not determine the procedure for appointment and removal from office.

                  Pachim "boy"? Documents of the USSR are read on paper, and not in the left digitization. Only the little boys did not encounter discrepancies. They still sincerely believe that service archives go to the Internet.

                  Get to know the functions and responsibilities of the Accounts Chamber. And you will understand how your training manuals deceived you.
                  1. The comment was deleted.
  6. askort154
    askort154 15 December 2017 09: 34
    +2
    Our 110 milliliters (valuable pieces of paper) lying in "storage" in the USA do not give me rest. fool negative
    1. Gamer
      Gamer 15 December 2017 09: 47
      0
      connoisseurs like krimsonalter write that there is no more profitable investment
    2. Kot_Kuzya
      Kot_Kuzya 15 December 2017 09: 57
      +1
      All right. The USSR lost the Cold War and fell apart, and now Russia, as the successor of the USSR, is forced to pay indemnity to the winner - the United States. Why do you think Russia is investing in US securities? This is a veiled way to pay indemnities. All the same, no one will ever return money on these "securities" of Russia. The occupation forces of the United States are still in Japan and Germany, and the gold and gold reserves of Germany and Japan are all in the United States, and Germany and Japan have no way to get them back.
    3. kapitan281271
      kapitan281271 15 December 2017 10: 21
      0
      Quote: askort154
      Our 110 milliliters (valuable pieces of paper) lying in "storage" in the USA do not give me rest. fool negative

      IT IS SECAS AT ALL, we give away our babos at 0,7-1,7% ourselves, at best they are credited at 5-7 or idiocy or ...................... ...
  7. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 15 December 2017 09: 35
    +1
    In response, Russia will announce a moratorium on the payment of external debts ... And who will become “more fun"? Until dependence on food imports (as in the USSR) appears in Russia, all these American Wishlist are not too scary. Iran over there under much more severe pressure. So what? I saw him recently with the Iranians ... Yes, everything is normal with them.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 15 December 2017 09: 50
      0
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      In response, Russia will announce a moratorium on the payment of external debts ... And who will become “more fun"?

      Americans :-) they have a "guarantee" in the form of 109 billion in debt receipts, they can symmetrically freeze them
  8. sa-ag
    sa-ag 15 December 2017 09: 41
    0
    Yeah, the Fed raised its key rate, now Bank of America is warning investors, I bet capital outflows will begin
  9. Shukshin
    Shukshin 15 December 2017 09: 45
    0
    Interestingly, our government continues to "invest" in US bonds?
    1. askort154
      askort154 15 December 2017 10: 13
      +1
      Shukshin .... Interestingly, our government continues to "invest" in US bonds?

      In 2014, there were 160 billion. In 2015 -16. reduced to less than 90 billion
      In March, the 2017 have purchased 13,5 billion. Total, now about 100 billion.
  10. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov 15 December 2017 09: 48
    0
    Hammer and will hammer! Scam know all our weaknesses. And then, as luck would have it, neither the leader nor the idea.
  11. The comment was deleted.
  12. rocket757
    rocket757 15 December 2017 10: 05
    +3
    Well, come up with something new.
    Where is the creative approach? Even the problems of our country are predicted by pattern.
  13. kapitan281271
    kapitan281271 15 December 2017 10: 11
    0
    I would not argue that the layman on x ***, everyone will be affected, the ban on our OFZ will lead to a tremendous outflow of currency, which will lead to a weakening of the ruble and, as a result, an increase in prices. The trouble is that the professional level of our management ministers is at least surprising. Mr. Siluanov to the question “What is the government going to do with the PF deficit” answers “We hope for the December weakening of the ruble.” His mother, if you, as a minister, is capable of plugging a deficit only by isolating the national currency, and GOD didn’t give you reason for more ..................... sadness.
  14. Gardamir
    Gardamir 15 December 2017 10: 15
    0
    Sorry for the abusive question. What about Russian securities invested in American treasuries?
    1. kapitan281271
      kapitan281271 15 December 2017 10: 33
      +1
      Quote: Gardamir
      Sorry for the abusive question. What about Russian securities invested in American treasuries?

      That's it obscene. LYING, WAITING, and SHO to do something with them, after all, Oreshkin said that we CANNOT flood our economy with money, we are pouring it into the YX economy with money, it’s generally, as it’s visible, the UX economy is undermining with our money, we have USE apparently HUUD us nowhere to spend.
  15. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 15 December 2017 10: 24
    0
    American bank warned ...
    The American bank may have warned, only the liberal layer of the government does not perceive this, because works for this bank. A shame. And even with all due respect to the president, but this is already boring.
    1. Kot_Kuzya
      Kot_Kuzya 15 December 2017 10: 32
      +1
      Even the President of Russia cannot influence the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Read Art. 75 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Federal Law “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is a branch of the Fed, and Putin as a lawyer understands this more clearly than anyone. Unfortunately, the laws on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are so cunningly drafted that they cannot be changed legally. Unless there must be a revolution that will sweep away the old order and establish a new one.
      1. sogdy
        sogdy 16 December 2017 17: 38
        0
        Quote: Kot_Kuzya
        Even the President of Russia cannot influence the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

        Taki patchim ?! He can get out of a single banking system. Do you need this?
        1. Kot_Kuzya
          Kot_Kuzya 16 December 2017 17: 53
          0
          You do not understand this. Sorry.
          1. sogdy
            sogdy 17 December 2017 16: 44
            0
            Quote: Kot_Kuzya
            You do not understand this.

            And why should I accept your absurd statements?
            What is the “non-understanding" of a statement disproved at the level of predicates? Which, in general, means that you are building a deliberately false statement. This is not what I say, it is mathematical logic.
      2. Eulogius
        Eulogius 16 December 2017 23: 26
        0
        The President, if he wants, CAN, but if he doesn’t want to, it means that the time has not come yet. So pounded smarter, shto ... Pro-Western you are ours ...
  16. Livonetc
    Livonetc 15 December 2017 10: 32
    +1
    Quote: Vladimir16
    Yes bullshit is all the election.
    Assad must leave, Putin must leave, and the State Department must come. Dogs are ravenous.
    And our media is fulfilling its "duty." They sow negative - aaaaaaaaa, everything is gone, the plaster is removed, the ruble is falling, we will all die ..... wassat
    If the ruble falls, we tighten our belts and live. Do not succumb to the mattresses. We’ll be wiser. Liberals from the government with a broom and the imprint of a soldier’s boot on their railroad.

    The trouble is that there will be no prints on the corresponding asses.
    Even if their asses will selectively take their place
    And the bullshit that makes us tighten our belts is not really bullshit.
    We live until spring.
    We choose.
    Then we'll see.
    1. rocket757
      rocket757 15 December 2017 10: 39
      +2
      And we’ll choose and see.
      But at the expense of their fingerprints, the Yankees are no longer obscured!
      However, where the elephant has trodden down, there is no point in looking for traces of other MLEK-feeding people!
  17. Altona
    Altona 15 December 2017 10: 48
    +1
    If the ruble is more and more untied from the dollar and oil, then there will be no risks for it. By the way, the Irkutsk region decided to take Glazyev's theses for the development program and became one of the regions with an exemplary management system. As long as there are windows for currency speculation, there will always be a risk for the ruble exchange rate.
    1. rocket757
      rocket757 15 December 2017 10: 58
      +2
      Our "elite" has stuck to the world system and it will not want to detach!
    2. sogdy
      sogdy 15 December 2017 14: 44
      0
      Quote: Altona
      and became one of the regions with an exemplary management system.

      And what, from the region located in the Irkutsk region, does the region manage? What have not sold the "Vikings"?
  18. Zubr
    Zubr 15 December 2017 10: 54
    +1
    Why is England silent? smile
    1. sogdy
      sogdy 15 December 2017 14: 45
      0
      As always, muck is plotting.
  19. Tektor
    Tektor 15 December 2017 12: 14
    +3
    Well, the “answer” will follow immediately: we will stop selling energy for dollars. If the EU joins the US sanctions, then the Hong Kong dollar or RMB, which can be immediately exchanged for precious metal, can become the payment currency. And it will be possible to stabilize the ruble if you assign it a content in a precious metal. For example, to guarantee the exchange of rubles for palladium at the rate of 0,5 mg Pd per 1 ruble. Those. the ruble will no longer be converted directly into other currencies, but only through the cross-rate of palladium: palladium is bought for the amount of the currency at the current rate, and already grams of metal are exchanged for the ruble at the rate of 1 g Pd = 2000 rubles.
  20. Altona
    Altona 15 December 2017 20: 56
    0
    Quote: Tektor
    Those. the ruble will no longer be converted directly into other currencies, but only through the cross-rate of palladium: palladium is bought for the amount of the currency at the current rate, and already grams of metal are exchanged for the ruble at the rate of 1 g Pd = 2000 rubles.

    ----------------------------------
    You offer something like the good old clearing that was common in the 1980s.
  21. Altona
    Altona 15 December 2017 20: 57
    0
    Quote: sogdy
    And what, from the region located in the Irkutsk region, does the region manage? What have not sold the "Vikings"?

    --------------------------
    I have no idea, I read a huge array of press and news every day, it's from there.
  22. Golovan Jack
    Golovan Jack 16 December 2017 19: 09
    +7
    At the same time, they call the implementation of this pessimistic scenario unlikely

    Here, at least one thread that a thread from the commenter is reading?
    Cammen tanters, (censorship) negative
    1. sogdy
      sogdy 17 December 2017 16: 46
      0
      I also did not understand why no one else smiled.
  23. Eulogius
    Eulogius 16 December 2017 23: 17
    0
    Quote: Cat Marquis
    Well, and besides, “on the nose” is the era of “blockchain” and “crypto” - when all these “dolaars,” “euros,” “yuan,” etc. will not be needed, they will be replaced by their “crypto” counterparts.


    All this virtual money is yet another American soap bubble, which everyone is slowly inflating with the whole world, so that then America would burst at the right moment.
    While America is a "hegemon" - nothing good should be expected from this money.
    Just in case, remember the dollar / euro exchange rate when it was introduced in Europe, and look at their ratio now.
    Well, something, but the Anglo-Saxons think well, especially for the long term ...