Not that now the Bundeswehr ...

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Not that now the Bundeswehr ...German Defense Minister Karl Theodor zu Guttenberg officially presented five options for reforming the Bundeswehr. Their details are generally unknown, but it is reported that the head of the German military department himself gave preference to the project, which provides for reducing the number of personnel of the armed forces of the country from 250 to 163,5 thousands of people and the rejection of universal conscription.

More precisely, the draft system will be legally preserved, but they will not really “shave” anyone. The situation is similar in the USA, the army is also formally there, aviation and the fleet should be equipped with recruits, but each year the call is declared "zero".

Naturally, due to radical reductions in the Bundeswehr, the number of units, formations and military equipment will decrease. Although as regards the latter, over the past 20 years tank the ground forces fleet of the Federal Republic was cut back more than five times, and the Luftwaffe had only a third of the combat aircraft out of the number available in 1990. Moreover, even before Guttenberg’s speech, a statement was made that this process would continue and should not affect only available weapons (six of the 10 submarines are written off, more than half of the Tornado fighters), but the procurement programs for new models (the Puma BMP, Typhoon aircraft, etc.) will also be significantly curtailed.



AFGHAN'S MOMENT OF TRUTH

Both the reductions announced earlier and the reform announced by Guttenberg today are aimed at reducing the financial costs of the Bundeswehr in the conditions of a clearly not ending economic crisis (and Germany has to save itself and the EU countries that are in a much worse situation). However, the upcoming transformation, perhaps, is explained not so much by economic, as by military-political reasons. This is a new role of Germany in Europe and Europe (more precisely, the EU) in the world.

The Federal Republic is the state with the most powerful economy in the Old World, the economic and political “locomotive” of the EU. To this day, the Bundeswehr was considered to be “the main strike force of NATO in Europe.” It is for this reason that universal military duty remained in the country - the “main striking force” should have a reliable, prepared reserve. Another reason for preserving the call is the timid look at the recent Nazi past in Germany: it is well known that it is much easier to support the totalitarian regime to make a caste mercenary than a traditional draft army (see the article “A Mercenary Is Not a Defender of the Fatherland” in 19 No. ).

But lately it has become absolutely clear that the Bundeswehr is no longer the "main striking force". Firstly, it has decreased too quantitatively; its current potential is completely insufficient not only for attacking anyone, but even, perhaps, for defense. Secondly, the length of conscription service in Germany is now six months, but more than half of the recruits still prefer her alternative civilian. Third, the country's constitution prohibits the Bundeswehr from participating in missions outside of NATO, with the exception of peacekeeping operations. And in this case, the German military must first of all be guided by the norms of "humanitarian international law."

The "moment of truth" for the current German army was the Afghan campaign. Germany takes the third place after the United States and Great Britain in the number of soldiers and officers sent to Afghanistan, but the Germans demonstrate extremely low combat capability there. They have neither the right nor the desire to fight. After a well-known incident in Kunduz a year ago, the Bundestag issued a completely remarkable instruction to its military: "The use of force that could lead to death is prohibited except in cases of attack or the immediate threat of attack."

Moreover, the Afghan situation in Germany is officially forbidden to call a war, because the Bundeswehr has no right to participate in the war. For Afghanistan, the German leadership is beaten on both sides: the Anglo-Saxons are for the actual sabotage of the overall military efforts, and a significant part of their own population is for participating in the Afghan operation, even in the current inter-intellectual form. Left and "green" require the immediate withdrawal of troops, and the SPD begins to incline to the same decision.



It is known that the German army has one of the longest and richest military histories. And if in the early centuries it was exclusively hired, then later the system of recruitment appeared. And in 1871, with the proclamation of the German Empire, universal military service was introduced. By 1914, Germany had one of the largest and most well-armed European armies (808.280 men).

"German or in boots, or under a boot"


NEW TIMES - NEW TASKS

As a result, Berlin apparently realized that it was necessary to take radical measures in the field of military construction. There is no need to build from oneself “the main strike force of NATO in Europe,” since the Bundeswehr cannot be considered as such. In addition, no one needs it, because the great classical war for which the North Atlantic Alliance 61 was created a year ago, obviously, will never happen (in addition, Germany is now surrounded by allies on all sides). Accordingly, the meaning of universal military duty has been lost, especially since even now, with a semi-annual service of an insignificant number of draftees, no prepared reserve for the case of a “big” war will succeed. And to fear totalitarianism in the current super democratic Federal Republic is simply absurd.

True, it is still very important for Berlin to keep Germany playing the role of the EU “locomotive” in the military field. And here the trends are completely obvious. The armies of European countries are reduced to purely symbolic values. There remains very little equipment for the conduct of the classical war: tanks, artillery, combat aircraft. The armed forces are reoriented to conduct counterguerrilla, peacekeeping and police operations in the third world countries, for which light equipment is purchased - armored cars, transport helicopters, amphibious assault ships like the Mistral so attracted to someone in Russia (this helicopter carrier is essentially a slightly reworked civilian ferry and practically has no weapons).

Naturally, such aircraft can be recruited only for hire, no European government would risk sending conscripts to the seas and oceans, to other continents, to conduct military operations that have nothing to do with protecting their own country from external aggression. Only mercenaries who are consciously prepared to go to the third world countries covered in chaos are suitable for this.

This concept fits perfectly with the proposed reform of the Bundeswehr by Guttenberg. After its implementation, the German army will have less than a thousand (it is possible that about 500) tanks and a little more than 200 combat aircraft (in 1990, in the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Germany there were 7 thousand tanks and over a thousand aircraft), then the status of the "main strike force" you can finally forget.

At the same time, the personnel will be purposefully preparing for operations in Asia and Africa within the framework of NATO and the EU, moreover, with a primary orientation towards participation in European foreign and military policy. After all, it is clear that Germany can bring its political status into line with economic leadership only within the European Union, where it is the most important system-forming force, and not within the North Atlantic Alliance, which was created not only to oppose the USSR, but also to control just over Germany.



WORLD EMERGENCY MINISTRY WITH POLICEMAN FUNCTIONS

Today, the weakest point of the EU is the extremely low coordination in foreign policy and the almost complete absence of the force component. That is why the geopolitical significance of the European Union lags behind its economic power by an order of magnitude. The EU economy is the first in the world, but in the military and political terms, it is good if it is among the top ten.

Europeans, especially the leaders of the EU - Germany, Britain, France, Italy, this situation can not arrange. Therefore, talk about the creation of "evroarmii" are increasingly active. In total, it will be much smaller than the current armies of individual states, which will save considerable financial resources. At the same time, it will not be managed by national governments or Washington through NATO structures, but by EU leaders, which will significantly increase the weight of the European Union in world politics.

The possibility of the Euro-armies of a great classical war cannot even be considered. First, for this it will not have potential (most likely this army of 27 countries will be approximately the same size as one Bundeswehr of the 1990 model of the year). Secondly, the extremely pacifized Europe is psychologically incapable of waging such a war. In addition, to fight it, in general, and not with anyone. Its mission is operations other than war (literally “operations other than war”, that is, police, peacekeeping, humanitarian, etc.). It will be a kind of “global MES with police functions”.

Actually, the process of building the “European army” began a long time ago, only it is proceeding very slowly. In the 1992, the Petersberg Declaration was adopted, in which the Europeans declared their intention to solve humanitarian, rescue and peacekeeping tasks independently of NATO, to send troops to resolve crises, including peace enforcement.

In 1999, the Helsinki Declaration on the main parameters of the military construction of the European Union was signed. The Military Committee and the EU Military Headquarters are being created, the concept of brigade tactical groups has been developed. It was assumed that by the year 2008 their number would reach 13 (then it was decided to increase this number to 18 with the extension of the formation period to the end of 2010) by 1,5-2,5 thousands of people each. The four of them should be German soldiers, and the two brigade groups they will lead (in one they will command the Dutch and the Finns, in the other - the Czechs and Austrians).

By the way, in reality, the EU brigade group is just a reinforced battalion, its combat potential is very low. In addition, Europeans are still almost completely dependent on the United States in terms of combat support equipment (reconnaissance, communications, control, EW, logistics, air-to-air refueling capabilities) and global redeployment, while having extremely limited capabilities weapons (here, too, they will not be able to do without the help of the Americans).

These circumstances and inhibit European military construction. First, armies in the Old World countries are declining, in addition they have to be divided between NATO and the EU. Secondly, to invest huge money in the WTO, the means of combat support and global transfers of particular desire among the Europeans are not observed. Nevertheless, the process is underway.

Thus, the military reform in Germany will be another confirmation of two trends: the erosion of both the military and political components of NATO (minimizing the Bundeswehr finally turns the Allied Joint Forces into fiction) and the formation of the European Union as a single confederal state with all the necessary attributes, including the Armed Forces.



OPPONENTS INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL

Of course, such a radical version of the reform of the Bundeswehr, which Guttenberg supports, will have quite a few opponents. Not everyone in Germany welcomes such a rapid reduction in the combat potential of the German army and its reorientation to overseas operations with the actual loss of the ability to defend their own country. Many political forces consider it a matter of principle to preserve the appeal for the “anti-totalitarian” considerations mentioned above.

The main opponents of the rejection of the universal military duty are, surprisingly for us, social services - in fact, more than half of the draftees, as already mentioned, are becoming alternates. If the call is canceled, the alternative service will also disappear, due to which the social sector will lose a significant part of the staff. In this case, there is not the slightest guarantee that the Bundeswehr will be able to recruit at least the minimum required number of contract soldiers. After all, the army is unpopular in society and uncompetitive in the labor market.

As a result, it will be necessary to increase the monetary allowance of volunteers so substantially that it will not be an economy, but an increase in military spending. Actually, world experience shows that a hired army is much more expensive than a draft. Either it is necessary to further reduce the number of personnel. Most likely, there will be at the same time an even greater reduction in the number of military personnel and an increase in the cost of their maintenance.

A sharp reduction in units and formations will lead to the loss of jobs in the civil sector serving the Bundeswehr. Further cuts in the number of vehicles and military orders will deal another blow to the German military industrial complex. Moreover, it will be quite difficult to compensate for the loss of domestic orders at the expense of exports - Europe is too sensitive in this respect, too many political restrictions are imposed on arms exports, which makes it lose not only to the United States and Russia, but also to China.

Finally, the process of building the Euro-Army does not suit Washington at all. It is clear that the Armed Forces of the European Union will not be a complement, but an alternative to NATO. Ultimately, this alliance, whose 21 of 28 members are members of the EU, will simply not be needed by Europe, leading to almost a complete loss of US influence in Europe. Accordingly, the White House will try to stifle this process in every way (primarily through the UK and the countries of Eastern Europe). However, under President Obama, the actions of Washington have greatly diminished the rigidity of both opponents and allies, so now it’s time to ruin NATO for “old Europe”.

For all the reasons mentioned above, the reform of the Bundeswehr can take place in one of the less radical options. However, this does not cancel all of these trends. Europe objectively does not need the old traditional aircraft, they are too expensive, while the Europeans in any case are not going to use them. Because of this, they objectively do not need NATO either; Washington (for it is an instrument of influence on Europe), the Brussels bureaucracy (here without comments) and Eastern Europeans, experiencing an irrational horror of Russia, prevent it from dissolving.

However, even Eastern Europeans, not to mention western ones, allowing Washington to defend itself, show very little (and the further, the less) the willingness to participate in its various military activities (if not to say - adventures). And this option is quite understandable irritation from the Americans. The discussion about what the Bundeswehr will become is a reflection of these tendencies. And on the other hand, the choice of the reform option of the German Armed Forces will have a very large impact on all the processes described.
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