Against the background of the final stage of the so-called Euphrates game, where the assault bones of the Syrian Arab army under the command of Brigadier General Suhel al-Hassan (with the support of the Russian Aerospace Force), advancing from the southern operational direction from Deir-ez-Zor, entered into an unspoken tactical “race” with the SDF for the liberation of the Euphrates and taking control of Abu Kemal with its most important thoroughfare, the leadership and special services of Israel are even more seriously concerned about the problems of maintaining a more or less high-intensity phase e Calacies in the Syrian theater of operations. After all, the defeat of the "key" enclaves of ISIL in the province of Deir ez-Zor meant for Tel Aviv only one thing - focusing the attention of the leaderships of most Arab states on the activities of the Jewish state in the Middle East. The inadmissibility of such a development was reminded in June of 2016 of the year, during the 16 of the Herzliyev Conference, by the Chief of Military Intelligence of the Israel Defense Forces Directorate (IDF), Major General Herzie Halevi; it was at this conference that Halevi made his scandalous statement regarding the benefit for Israel of the presence of ISIL groups (prohibited in the Russian Federation) on the Middle East agenda.
Despite the fact that over the last quarter there have been a huge number of provocative moments in the air section of the Syrian theater of operations (from the cover of the fighter aviation Allied air forces of the coalition of the retreating IS formations until the recent obstruction of the Su-25 military aviation of the Russian Federation by the stealth 5th generation fighter F-22A “Raptor” of the US Air Force), as well as loud and inadequate statements from the US Air Force command about the possible interception of our tactical fighters , in the Jewish state, they are well aware that this does not promise anything but more aggressive rhetoric and exchanges of verbal "courtesies" at the level of the defense and foreign affairs agencies. After all, it’s extremely difficult even for a second to imagine that the pilots of the same “Raptor” or “Eagle” of the American Air Force dare to attempt to capture the exact auto-tracking, and even more so, launch AMRAAM in one of our “Dryers” performing combat missions against the fortified areas of the pseudo-caliphate. Consequently, after the eradication of ISIS in Syria, Israel has absolutely no reason to hope for a possible continuation of escalation due to a direct clash between the superpowers on the basis of the confrontation between the SAA and the Syrian Democratic Forces (including the Kurdish YPG / YPJ formations). And the command of the Kurdish detachments has become more accommodating in recent days.
This happened against the background of complete despair, expressed in the operational and strategic shackling of the SDF-controlled areas of the SAR into a huge “half-cat”, stretching 480 km along the eastern coast of the Euphrates from Abu Kemal to the northern and north-western governorates of Syria. Surrounded by the Turkish army from the northern IT and the Syrian Arab Army from the southern and western operational areas, Syrian Kurdistan was faced with the impossibility of fully implementing any trade and economic relations with Western European countries supporting the pro-American vector in the Middle East. The access to the Mediterranean coast of Syria remained for Kurds and Americans another unimplemented item of the plan for the formation of a state not ready for a self-sufficient existence. Thus, the coast and the most extreme point of the western SDF enclave (in the province of Aleppo) are separated by 90-kilometer stretch of Idlib and Lattakia provinces, where 75 is divided into 15-kilometer segment of Idlib and Lattakia provinces, where XNUMX is separated controlled by pro-Turkish units of the SSA and XNUMX km - government forces of Syria. “Breaking through” this segment is real only in the course of active hostilities with the participation of Turkey, and with sufficient military support from Washington, which currently has “slowed down” in this direction, in order not to sacrifice relations with strategically important Ankara.
As you can see, none of the hopes of the leadership of the Jewish state regarding the destabilization of the situation in Syria could be realized at the expense of Tel Aviv’s favorable confluence of regional military-political circumstances. Israel began to act in its usual manner of introducing destructiveness in the affairs of the neighboring state through the paramilitary structures present on its territory. However, this time the Israeli “Plan B” was not limited to engaging only its own channels and loopholes (of the same Druze or the so-called “moderate opposition”), but involved the second main anti-Iranian stronghold in the Persian region - Saudi Arabia.
It is worth noting that the military-political rapprochement of Tel Aviv with Riyadh "lit up" in Western Europe, and then in our press back in March 2011, as evidenced by analytical materials of French journalist Jacques Benyuyush and other specialists. Even then, the cooperation between Israel and the SA took place due to the fact that the administration of Barack Obama, in the opinion of Tel Aviv, took a rather loyal position on the process of engaging Hezbollah by Tehran to suppress the anti-government uprising of the Syrian Free Army and other radical pro-Western formations. Israel expected US forces to destroy the current Bashar Assad regime in the SAR, and by the autumn of 2013, the Pentagon and the command of the United NATO Navy had formed a powerful mixed AUG as part of the nuclear aircraft carrier CVN-68 USS "Nimitz", 3 "Ajis" "-The destroyers of the class" Arleigh Burke ", one RKR class" Ticonderoga ", as well as several frigates and destroyers of the URO OMVS of NATO countries.
The purpose of the group was to launch a massive missile and air strike against strategically important industrial and military facilities of the republic. But even in this situation, all of Israel’s plans failed miserably due to the operational actions of the Black Sea and Northern Fleets of the Russian Navy, which literally within one and a half to two weeks formed a full-fledged A2 / AD zone in the airspace over the Eastern Mediterranean (then this term was not yet so popular ): Several main surface combat ships arrived at once (including the BPC, Pr. 1155 Admiral Panteleev, frigate / SK Pr. 11540 Undaunted, and even the missile cruiser Pr 1164.5 Moscow). As a result, the command of the 6th operational fleet The United States Navy and NATO Naval Forces were forced to cancel the planned strategic aerospace offensive operation against Syria due to the stopping of the Tomahawks' flying lines by an "anti-missile umbrella" formed by the S-300F Fort and Dagger ship systems. And the Americans certainly had no desire to joke with our Vulkan and Mosquito SCRCs.
As a result, Israel was unable to achieve the main goal - the destruction of the legitimate government of Syria under the pretext of accusing government forces (CAA) and Hezbollah of suppressing opposition forces. At the same time, Tel Aviv managed to turn the situation around in its favor thanks to the Moscow agreements reached at the end of March 2011 between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Al-Faisal. There are no detailed details of this meeting, but it is precisely known that it was from this moment that the Jewish state began to work closely with the leader of the “Arabian coalition” on countering Iran. It is also obvious that approximately at this time period (starting from August 2011), the early concept of supporting terrorist groups operating in Syrian territory was agreed between the states: the SA tightly engaged in supporting the Jebhat an-Nusra and Syrian free army ”, while Israel provided support to the Druze, militants from the opposition“ Syrian Free Army ”, and, naturally, the IS.
Today, after the complete defeat of virtually all the ISIL enclaves in Syrian territory, Israel continues to look for other ways to destabilize the situation in the south and in the central regions of Syria. At the same time, the work is going on both on a local scale (against the CAA and subunits of the Hezbollah movement that liberated Syria from ISIL), and in the regional - against the Islamic Republic of Iran (with the involvement of Saudi Arabia). With the latter, Tel Aviv has even concluded additional secret agreements against Tehran, which became known in November 2017 according to statements by the Chief of the General Staff of the IDF, Lt.-General Gadi Ayzenkot, and Israel’s Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz.
Nevertheless, both in the local (Syrian) and regional (Asia Minor) conditional theaters, the “Napoleonic” plans of Israel are moving extremely "viscous." The recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state led to a well-grounded surge of anti-American sentiment not only among Shiite states, but also in the "club" of the Sunni countries of the "Arabian coalition." Saudi Arabia did not refrain from wrathful rhetoric, accusing Washington of grossly violating the conditions for implementing the “peace process” in the Middle East and denigrating the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. The final asymmetric response of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) was the recognition of the Palestinian territories as an independent state with the occupied capital in East Jerusalem. This declaration was adopted on Wednesday, 13 December, during an extraordinary summit of the organization, held in Istanbul, as reported by the DW publication.
These events can be considered a real turning point and a “rollback” in the implementation of any further attempts to achieve military-political stability in all of Asia Minor with the participation of the Israeli side. Now, despite the multi-billion dollar weapons the contracts with which the White House tried to “handhold” Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, it will be several orders of magnitude more difficult to control the US and Israel, because this time even sworn opponents such as Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed . In particular, amid accusations made by senior representatives of numerous Arab states, Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani called on all Arab countries to smooth out internal differences and join forces in opposing the plans of Israel and the United States (it was clear that the protracted diplomatic conflict was between Qatar and other participating countries “The Arabian coalition”).
Logically, it is not at all difficult to understand that the same Riyadh will heed this statement with much more sympathy than any attempts by American and Israeli representatives to explain their destructive actions against the people of Palestine. Neither will the special forces of the border guards of the YaMAS (Yehidat Mistaarvim or werewolves) be used by the Israelis to suppress the mass protests of Palestinians, who are angry at the unilateral recognition of Jerusalem as the new capital of Israel. Automatically this will entail the arrival of additional impressive forces from numerous Arab states to defend the rights of the Palestinians.
This process can be considered absolutely fair and adequate, since neither Israel nor the States were given the right to register in someone else’s house with a different mentality, and even with imposing their interests. Taking advantage of the diplomatic chaos in the region, the IDF is fully capable of attempting to integrate into the internal processes of Syria under the pretext of supporting the Druze, the "moderate", and other militants on the southern and western borders of the SAR. And such an attempt may follow in one of the stages of the offensive of the Syrian Arab army in the province of Idlib, for which huge military-technical resources deployed from various regions of the republic are involved. The weakened southern headquarters in the SAR is unlikely to be able to oppose anything to the numerous armored units of the armed forces of Israel. How the situation will develop around the "game of capitals" of Israel will show the end of the week; as for the “secret agreements” with Riyadh, this question is obviously put in the back box.