One of the first decrees issued by President Donald Trump on US national security was an order to the appointed Secretary of Defense retired General of the Marine Corps (ILC) James Mattis to prepare a report called the Nuclear Forces Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). Currently, analysts and Pentagon experts are very actively working on this document, which will form the basis of the new US nuclear strategy. The final version of the report should appear on the table of the president and legislators at the end of this or early next year. But while the military department is preparing its vision of strengthening and developing America’s nuclear potential, experts from the Congressional Budget Office (BUK) estimated how much it will cost Washington in the next 30 years to upgrade its nuclear triad.
GENERAL FINANCIAL EXPLOID POSITIONS
In order to maintain the potential of strategic nuclear forces (SNF) at about the same level as at the present stage, the US leadership plans to upgrade each element of its nuclear triad in the next three decades. New estimates of US expenditures on the development of strategic nuclear forces up to 2046, conducted by experts from the ACI based on an analysis of detailed plans included in the Pentagon’s budget for the current fiscal year, have shown that the White House will need 1,25 trillion dollars to solve the task. More than 800 billion will be spent to ensure the functioning of the strategic nuclear forces and their current modernization, and 400 billion will go to a complete update of all components of these forces. That is, the costs of fundamental nuclear restructuring will amount to 50% of the costs that would be necessary for their maintenance and operation. Under the conditions of the current financial restrictions on military construction costs, as noted by the ACM experts, this will be a serious problem for the Pentagon.
772 billion could be spent on strategic systems for delivering nuclear warheads to targets for three decades. This amount includes 331 billion dollars for ballistic missile submarines (SLBMs), 149 billion for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and 226 billion on bombers, including the possibility of their use in nuclear and conventional equipment. In addition, 44 billion dollars can be spent on nuclear research and development, operation and logistical support (MTO) weapons, which the BEECH specialists could not attribute to any of the above atomic charge delivery systems.
During this period, 25 billion can be spent on delivery vehicles for tactical nuclear munitions. At the same time, the amount of funding for nuclear laboratories and other infrastructure elements involved in the development and production of tactical nuclear weapons weapons, can make 261 billion. In turn, the cost of control systems, communications and early warning of a nuclear missile attack can reach 284 billion dollars.
As analysts of the BUK state, many of the nuclear weapons systems in service were developed and produced decades ago, and their life cycle is now coming to an end. According to the Pentagon’s specialists, if the United States intends to continue to keep its nuclear forces on alert, the Department of Defense will have to be thoroughly modernized or even completely replaced with virtually all new elements of the Armed Forces nuclear triad that it intends to maintain. Specialists of the Budget Department have calculated that 2046 billion may be required for these activities before 339.
PROGRAMS OF MODERNIZATION OF SNF
Today, the US Navy’s 14 SSBNs of the Ohio type are in service. They were adopted from 1981 to 1997 year. Initially, the Ohio SSBN was designed for 30-year service life, but then the service life was extended to 42 years. And now he is coming to an end. The US Navy leadership decided to replace these submarines with 12 SSBNs of the Columbia type. Construction of the first must begin in 2021 year. From 2026 to 2035, the year is planned to be commissioned on one SSBN of a new type per year. In accordance with the plans, the last boat should go into service with the Navy in 2035. The life of these SSBNs will be 42 of the year. They will have to be on alert until the beginning of the 80s of the current century.
A few years ago, the United States Air Force launched the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent program, which means “The program to create a ground-based weapon system to provide strategic deterrence.” According to US media reports, the US Air Force Command plans to begin production of the steps of the new ICBM during the 2026 fiscal year (FY). Acceptance of the first “assembled and ready-for-use items” must be carried out during FNXXXX. The first nine ICBMs should be put on combat duty by 2028 fg. And the combat operation of all the ballistic missiles of the new grouping should begin in 2029 FG. However, as the American experts note, the complete equipping of all air launch missile launchers (2036 units) of the air force with the new air defense systems that can be carried out only by the 450 year.
Currently, the Air Force are developing a bomber B-21 "Raider". The beginning of the creation of this car can be attributed to the 2004 year, when the US Congress began funding the program for developing the next generation bomber (NGB - Next Generation Bomber). For various reasons, work on this program was interrupted or postponed several times. Beginning with 2011 FG, after a two-year hiatus, Congress resumed its funding.
It is expected that in the 2040-ies the B-21 aircraft will completely replace the strategic bombers B-52H (currently 76 planes are in service) and B-1B (63 bomber) in the US Air Force. By 2058, the Pentagon plans to remove from service the last unobtrusive B-2A bombers (20 machines).
Many military analysts indicate that, in accordance with the procurement plans, a total of 100 B-21 strategic bombers aviation The US will gradually decrease from the existing 159 aircraft to 100 aircraft. At the same time, the mass of nuclear charges delivered to targets will be significantly reduced. Therefore, calls are being made in Congress and the Pentagon for planning purchases of 150–160 and even 200 new bombers. However, such an increase in procurement will require very significant costs, which is most likely unrealistic given the current restrictions on the Pentagon budget.
Currently armed with a nuclear submarine fleet US Trident II D5 ballistic missiles are being upgraded under a life extension program. According to experts, these missiles will be in service until the early 40s of this century. BEK experts believe that the development of new SLBMs, which will replace the Trident II D5, will begin in the mid-20s, and their production will be organized in 2035. The new ones will replace the W78 and W88 warheads that Trident II D5 missiles are equipped with today. They will be replaced by warheads of the type IW-1, 2 and 3, which are currently being created. They are universal in nature and can be installed both on ICBMs and on SLBMs.
Currently, the US is developing a long-range air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) with a nuclear warhead. It is designed to destroy objects that cannot be destroyed by other types of nuclear weapons. The LRSO (Long Range Standoff) launch competition was announced at the end of 2012. It is assumed that these missiles will come into service in the middle of the 2020-s. By 2030, they must completely replace the AGM-86B and AGM-129A cruise missiles. The LRSO will be installed both on the B-21 bomber under development and on the B-52H and B-2A bomber.
In accordance with the plans of the Pentagon, several types of atomic bombs of the B-61 family in service are being upgraded. All of them will be replaced by a single bomb B61-12. After the end of the service life of this bomb, it will be replaced by a new modification of the B-61.
Management experts estimate that the increase in expenditures on upgrading nuclear weapons from 2017 to the beginning of 2030 will increase from 29 billion to 50 billion. With the completion of individual programs for upgrading strategic nuclear forces in 2040, the annual cost of implementing the remaining will decrease to 30 billion. .
SOME POINTS OF THE PROJECT "NUCLEAR FORCES OVERVIEW"
These estimates of the possible costs of the White House for nuclear weapons came out almost immediately after Trump and his national security advisers discussed the draft Pentagon’s next report entitled “Nuclear Force Review” in September of this year, which will be the fourth such document kind of. To date, similar reports have been published in 1994, 2002 and 2010, the first two of which are classified as security.
The NPR report is designed to provide the president and legislators with a full and comprehensive assessment of the state of US nuclear forces, measures to maintain them at the required level and directions of their development in the next 5 – 10 and more years. It shows the existing composition of nuclear forces, the volume, safety and plans for updating the nuclear arsenal; data on the combat readiness of nuclear forces, their deployment on the territory of the country and abroad are given, factors causing the possibility and necessity of delivering nuclear strikes are considered, directions for improving the system of managing nuclear forces, plans for developing the structure of this type of personnel and staffing, as well as the state of infrastructure and their logistics systems. In addition, this report examines such issues as the nuclear situation in the world, preventing the proliferation of nuclear technologies and nuclear terrorism, ensuring the nuclear security of the allies and partners of the United States, and even the issue of the complete elimination of nuclear weapons.
Discussion of the report was closed. However, representatives of the American media were able to figure out some new directions for the development of the SNF, which will be included in one form or another in the report being developed. First of all, the meeting discussed the issue of lowering the power of nuclear warheads and the creation of ballistic missiles for their delivery to targets. These weapons will be designed primarily to limit the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia in the event of a war in the Baltic territories. Trump and his advisers discussed the problems of sea-based cruise missiles, changing the conditions of use of nuclear weapons and increasing allocations aimed at reducing the time to prepare for nuclear testing.
On his way to the main chair of the White House and almost immediately after the accession to the Oval Office, 45, the US President, has repeatedly stated his firm intention to put America’s main strike forces at the top of the world nuclear pyramid. And in July of this year, as reported by some media outlets, when Trump was shown a chart reflecting a clear downward trend in the size of the US nuclear arsenal since the end of the Cold War, the president’s outrage had no limits. He allegedly demanded to increase the stockpile of nuclear warheads and bombs 10 and was ready to immediately give such an order.
However, White House officials denied these press reports. But one can not say that they, too, repeatedly reported their intentions to take a tougher stance on nuclear weapons. So, Vice President Mike Pence, who visited Minot at the air base in late October, loudly announced: “History testifies that the surest path to peace is the power of America. There is no more significant factor, there is no more powerful force to ensure peace on the planet than the US nuclear arsenal. ”
Christopher Ford, Special Assistant to the President on the issues of weapons of mass destruction and countering the proliferation of such weapons, addressed the meeting on nuclear threats organized by the Plowshares Fund: “The traditional approach after the end of the Cold War, which demonstrates the honest pursuit of disarmament through sustainable numerical movement towards the elimination and simultaneous attempts to avoid such steps that could undermine the foundations of national security awn United States, for the most part lost its relevance and validity, especially in view of changes in the security environment "- and added," so it's time to consider alternative approaches, and we just do it now. "
How much Trump’s and his like-minded nuclear designs will become a reality will make it clear when the NPR will be released in its final version. But for now, one thing can be said: the nuclear gallop, which the head of the Oval Office has started, has no real prospects, and if it is realized, it can be very sad for all of humanity.