Military Review

Artificial intelligence and the new proletariat. What is waiting for humanity?

43
The future of the world economy concerns many. Today, more and more economists, businessmen, politicians argue about how the economy will change in the foreseeable future and what states and corporations will do. The intensity of technical progress is very high, technologies are being improved continuously, so the gradual replacement of many “human” professions with artificial intelligence is easily predictable. The introduction of artificial intelligence can radically change not only the economic but also the social situation. After all, the release of millions of jobs worldwide will inevitably affect the social environment.


Recently, Jack Ma, founder and chairman of the board of directors of the Alibaba Group, said in one of his speeches that the world is on the verge of global changes brought about by a technological revolution. According to the billionaire, such revolutions occur about once every three millennia and the challenges that face the modern world are very large. They are connected, first of all, with those possibilities which are opened by use of an artificial intelligence, and with those problems which artificial intelligence generates.

Governments and companies are still trying to act, guided by an outdated job creation strategy in the manufacturing sector to eliminate unemployment and ensure employment of citizens. But the time when enterprises required a huge number of workers passed. In the foreseeable future, artificial intelligence and robots will increasingly actively force out traditional labor, accordingly, the question will arise where to direct the hundreds of millions of workers who have been released. The whole world is worried about this today - from heads of state and owners of major corporations to the most ordinary people. There is nothing surprising.

Concerns for their further destiny, for their employment, were always inherent in people. For example, when the printing press appeared, it very much frightened professional scribes, engravers, woodcarvers. All of them were convinced that the invention of the printing press would leave them without work and without means of livelihood. But this did not happen. While the machine was spreading, the older generation had time to quietly modify, and their children had already mastered the profession of a printer. When the “revolution of machines” took place, it seemed that humanity would also remain without work. But this did not happen - just new professions appeared, the need for specialists in those areas that previously simply did not exist increased.

However, the current situation is somewhat different from the technical revolutions of the past centuries. The fact is that modern technologies are developing at a rapid pace and just as rapidly penetrate into all spheres of public life activity - business, manufacturing, government, education, etc. Two decades ago, no one suspected what, for example, the creation of social networks would lead to. However, nothing terrible happened, moreover - social networks have created new professions, millions of people all over the world are now making money thanks to the existence of social networks.

Artificial intelligence and the new proletariat. What is waiting for humanity?


The emergence of "artificial intelligence" and universal computerization really eliminate the need for many "old" professions, but immediately create new professions that also require millions of hands. At least 5 million people in the world now work remotely only through the sites Freelancer.com and Upwork. These are, for example, programmers or lawyers with whom customers communicate with these sites. Thanks to the opportunities provided by computerization and the Internet, yesterday's “unemployed” lawyer or accountant quietly earns his bread, drawing up contracts or filling in reports to customers from other cities or even countries.

It was with the spread of computer technology that the word “freelancer” came into wide use. Of course, taxi drivers — bomb bombers and builders — were earlier, but the development of computer technology dragged millions of intellectual workers — programmers, designers, journalists, photographers, lawyers, accountants, architects, and so on — into free employment. And not only highly qualified professionals who are able to independently search for clients and fulfill their tasks efficiently, are becoming freelancers today. More and more people are involved in "virtual" work in positions that do not require any special skills or qualifications. For example, many people now work as site moderators, administer pages on social networks. Special knowledge is not required for this, although responsibility, discipline, attentiveness are very important, as in any other job. Not only small firms that can not afford full-time programmers, accountants or correspondents, but also reputable companies and even transnational corporations are increasingly cooperating with freelancers. For example, Google collaborates with at least 10 thousands of freelancers who are testing new services. Tens of thousands of people interact with other high-tech companies.



Freelancers also pour water into the mill. For example, in many countries of the world, legislation is gradually tightened to control information posted on social networks. Russia with the “Spring Law” is only a single example, similar laws are being adopted in many other countries. For example, in Germany, extremist information should be removed from the social network no later than in a day. Then the state imposes fines. In this regard, there is a great need for moderators who monitor content on social networks. Of course, to hire the whole staff of professionals who will need office space, social guarantees, companies will not. For this long time there are freelancers. For example, the “brainchild” of Mark Zuckerberg Facebook increases the staff of moderators to 7500 people.

If earlier the proletariat was understood as a factory worker, working at the machine, or at least a construction worker or a truck driver, now it is quite possible to include a large stratum of workers in the digital industry to the new proletariat. They perform important, but not requiring special qualification operations. A significant part of the “digital proletarians” works remotely. This is another feature of modern labor organization. By the way, sociologists and economists say that the exploitation of such workers, despite all the advantages of remote work and flexible hours, is no less than during factory work. Only it lies in the other.

Most of these “digital proletarians” belong to the prekariat, that is, to “non-guaranteed” workers. The British economist Guy Standing identifies among the main criteria for belonging to the precariate the lack of a “permanent” workplace, remuneration, and social guarantees - benefits, maternity and hospital benefits from the employer, etc. Formally, these people are unemployed, not having all the advantages that "personnel" workers have. Freelancers who earn online do not have a package of social guarantees, at best in Russia they are designed as individual entrepreneurs, but for the most part they are simply “in the shadow of” labor relations.

Russian sociologist Jean Toschenko considers the prekariat as a direct product of the neoliberal socio-economic system. Features of the modern labor market have led to the fact that a huge number of even graduates cannot get a job in their field. If in the 1995 year, Toshchenko cites research data from his sociologists (N. M. Volovskaya and others) in the specialty could not get only 17,6% specialists, in 2002, the number of those who could not work on the diploma increased to 37%, and in the 2013 year - up to 49,1%. Thus, more than half of graduates of higher and secondary vocational educational institutions do not work in their specialty. A significant part of them replenishes the ranks of the “digital proletariat”. But you can not see in this process only the negative component. For example, in many cities and towns of Russia, where there is a difficult situation with providing the population with work, “virtual” employment allows you to earn money, sometimes - quite good ones.

Globally, the leaders of many third world countries, which are characterized by high levels of unemployment, are thinking about introducing the practice of providing unemployed jobs through digital employment. One of the first such strategies was to use the leadership of Kenya - perhaps the most prosperous country in East Africa. About one million Kenyans after receiving special training in government programs received remote jobs.

The absence of social guarantees is not the only feature of the majority of “digital proletarians”. Practically all of them, with rare exceptions, use their own resource base. If a full-time employee comes to an office owned by an employer, uses a computer, telephone, Internet owned by the employer, then the remote employee can only rely on his property. He works from his apartment or house, on his own computer, he pays for the provision of Internet services, and, if necessary, repair the computer or purchase a new computer. Like the craftsmen of the Middle Ages, there is a combination of work and everyday life. Such workers often do not have a fixed working day, which means that they work “always” without drawing clear boundaries between working time and free time.

Since artificial intelligence in the foreseeable future may leave without the work of representatives of many traditional professions, ways to minimize the social consequences of this regular technological revolution are now being actively discussed. Representatives of many professions will have to relearn, learn new professions that are relevant in modern society. “Digital employment” is one of the first ways to solve social problems that are generated by the computerization of society. In addition, it is possible to predict the further increase in the outflow of workers in the service sector. “Live” service will continue, although it will most likely become more expensive than service by robots.

One of the popular ideas of minimizing the socially negative consequences of introducing artificial intelligence in recent years has been the introduction of a “universal basic income” (UBD), that is, systematic and regular payments to non-working people so that they can ensure their physical existence. In financial terms, such payments will be provided by the growth of taxes on corporations that use robots and artificial intelligence. Many sociologists explain the need to introduce UBD by the fact that in modern conditions it will be very difficult for most downsized workers to switch to new activities.

This is due to the fact that the majority of the world working class are still people working in the field of manual labor. Where should they go if their work can gradually be replaced by robots? Moreover, artificial intelligence will gradually attack white-collar positions, taking away part of the workload from accountants, lawyers, sales managers, and so on. Only relative safety from the onset of artificial intelligence of those professions that require a creative approach, in which the individual component is important, can be guaranteed.

If before the factory worker in case of loss of work could go as a loader or a seller to the market, then one can hardly expect that a modern loader suddenly turns into a copywriter or begins to read popular lectures on Indian philosophy. Most likely, the most abbreviated blue-collar workers will have difficulty adapting to changing conditions. So that they do not rebel, do not go into crime and need a universal basic income.

However, Kai Fu Lee, the head of Sinovation Ventures, is convinced that universal basic income can only partially mitigate the effects of the technological revolution. In countries with unstable and weak economies, this model will not be applicable. Therefore, the problem will remain. Moreover, it is the countries of the “third world” that will suffer the greatest losses due to the reduction in the demand of the modern economy for mass and low-skilled labor.

In developed countries, the universal basic income for the majority of citizens will only stimulate the search for new forms of labor activity, since a normal person in the prime of life is not inclined to live on benefits. No basic income can replace the natural need for professional self-realization. It's hard to disagree with this, so the model of organizing centralized retraining for new professions seems to be more relevant.
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  1. prior
    prior 6 December 2017 15: 41 New
    +6
    Labor created man - the absence of labor will destroy him.
    1. Boris55
      Boris55 6 December 2017 17: 17 New
      +6
      Quote: prior
      Labor created man - the absence of labor will destroy him.

      Are you about the fact that labor made a man out of a monkey? So this is a lie. Mental labor made a man out of a monkey, but physical labor turned him into a horse. Robots will replace low-performing physical labor, and mental - will not go anywhere, will remain the prerogative of people.
      1. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 6 December 2017 19: 24 New
        +2
        Quote: Boris55
        and mental - not going anywhere, will remain the prerogative of people.

        try to get a job at an enterprise with automated and robotic production ... Who will need your Mind there? It is noted that unoccupied hands stimulate the mind to search for a changed reality such as Alcoholic, Narcotic and Gaming .... and then evolution begins in the opposite direction laughing
        1. dSK
          dSK 6 December 2017 20: 19 New
          +7
          Quote: aybolyt678
          further evolution begins in the opposite direction

          "Golden Horde 2.0 "intellectual, cunning - no chains, no shackles. Beautifully packaged - "democracy and freedom." In Russia, with its immeasurable farmland, we eat imported palm chemistry, gamosh potatoes, carrots, etc., we live in plastic dwellings, breathing round-the-clock pairs of stenols around the clock, we watch hundreds of round-the-clock television channels with a typical set of chases, scams, with humor below the belt (for except 4-5 human). From creators and creators we are turning into a herd of qualified consumers.hi
          1. Portos
            Portos 7 December 2017 07: 22 New
            +1
            Absolutely agree! Add to this an unobtrusive education after which 95% doesn’t have anything left in the head, propaganda of hedonism and consumerism (still hidden but even more dangerous), ossified science striking from one extreme to another - from pseudoscience to the formal creation of a slide show instead of research. In such conditions, personal spiritual growth is a process “contrary to”, and not “thanks to” society. And the progress of society is possible only in the technological field, without significant advances (in the positive direction, of course) in the spiritual.
        2. Boris55
          Boris55 6 December 2017 20: 27 New
          0
          Quote: aybolyt678
          try to get a job at an enterprise with automated and robotic production ..

          Imagine that the employee’s working hours will be one hour per week. Presented? Now imagine a ton of recruitment announcements for these businesses.
          With robotization of production, output will increase. The balance between the money supply and the goods must be observed. The question is in the distribution of this money supply. If it is concentrated in one hand, then so many “galoshes” are not necessary for one. What to do? Reduce production and population or give money to people?
          The solution to this problem is the task of our century and it will be solved in favor of humanity.
          1. aybolyt678
            aybolyt678 7 December 2017 05: 51 New
            +1
            Quote: Boris55
            The solution to this problem is the task of our century and it will be solved in favor of humanity.

            Humanity has achievements that will help: - This is a nuclear bomb and a Kalashnikov assault rifle. Marx proposed to solve this problem socially - by creating conditions for creative work ... But, here he was mistaken, forecasting the future is an ungrateful thing sad
        3. Korolev
          Korolev 9 December 2017 14: 18 New
          0
          Quote: aybolyt678
          try to get a job at an enterprise with automated and robotic production ...

          such enterprises require highly qualified engineers. But ordinary workers with a bottle of moonshine at dinner, yes. Remain out of work.
      2. mister-red
        mister-red 8 December 2017 15: 39 New
        0
        Do you want to refute the classics? It's hard.
        In fact - the need to think appears when you need to do something. So the work is primary, the mind is a consequence.
        1. Boris55
          Boris55 8 December 2017 19: 38 New
          0
          Quote: mister-red
          So the work is primary, the mind is a consequence.

          You are not a blonde who first does and then thinks? laughing
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 6 December 2017 20: 04 New
      +1
      "What progress has come to ... inject robots, not humans." Without socially useful work, humanity is degrading. And even very fast. belay
      1. Boris55
        Boris55 6 December 2017 20: 31 New
        +4
        Quote: siberalt
        Without socially useful work, humanity is degrading.

        The vast majority of women in tsarist Russia sat at home and somehow did not degrade. laughing
        1. max702
          max702 6 December 2017 22: 00 New
          0
          Quote: Boris55
          Quote: siberalt
          Without socially useful work, humanity is degrading.

          The vast majority of women in tsarist Russia sat at home and somehow did not degrade. laughing

          It’s difficult to work with women at all .. They have no time to work because the current society makes such demands on children that if there are more than two children in a family, then there can be no talk about any mother’s work .. God forbid, I would have known this letter before ... And now? And the greedy capitalists kicked out the women’s work because the NTR solved the physical problem. superiority of men, and threw hundreds of millions of labor hands into the labor market, thereby increasing competition in the labor market and sharply lowering requirements for both wages and working conditions .. Ask any NORMAL what does she want? It turns out that they are at home with children, and all sorts of business ladies and socialites are already a consequence of bourgeois agitation and propaganda ..
          1. Maki Avellevich
            Maki Avellevich 7 December 2017 21: 09 New
            0
            Quote: max702
            . Ask any NORMAL what does she want? It turns out that at home with children,


            where is the NORMAL to find?
        2. aybolyt678
          aybolyt678 7 December 2017 05: 54 New
          +1
          Quote: Boris55
          The vast majority of women in tsarist Russia sat at home and somehow did not degrade.

          they had their own production: children (then there was an amazing infant mortality), fabrics were spun, knitted woolen things, and even plowed in gardens and fields .....
    3. Skeptic
      Skeptic 7 December 2017 09: 52 New
      0
      Quote: prior
      Labor created man - the absence of labor will destroy him.

      There is no reason to believe that labor made man, there is no such hypothesis. There are many different versions, but they are far from the ideas of Marx. The deliberate use of devices (tools) for food extraction can already be crows.
      Also, the version associated with social interactions is not justified (but not rejected). Physiologists have found a decrease in brain mass in recent millennia, while social interactions have only become more complicated.
  2. Strashila
    Strashila 6 December 2017 16: 53 New
    +1
    Man is the last defense against the fool ... how many human people have stolen, and how much has been stolen using the type of artificial intelligence ... numbers for people ... there are significantly more black doors for an outside entrance in history. History has proved ... digitization. it’s wonderful ... convenient ... effective ... only on one condition, as long as there is Christmas, it ends and chaos sets in ... paper carriers immediately rise.
    1. Skeptic
      Skeptic 7 December 2017 13: 01 New
      0
      Quote: Strashila
      only under one condition, as long as there is eChristianity, it ends and chaos sets in ... paper carriers immediately rise.

      As long as there is electricity, civilization exists. As there is no electricity, the value of digitized information will be zero. And this does not mean that "paper carriers will rise." Firstly, for the most part, they will not be relevant, and secondly, in the beginning it will not be up to books at first all the forces and means will be spent on survival.
  3. Lnglr
    Lnglr 6 December 2017 17: 18 New
    +1
    The author has a traditional respect. I will not name some characters, but Ilya, unlike them, always (well, or almost always) correctly and logically illuminates the issue
  4. Sergey-8848
    Sergey-8848 6 December 2017 17: 49 New
    +1
    Basic income theory is ruining a person.
    1. ALEA IACTA EST
      ALEA IACTA EST 6 December 2017 18: 11 New
      0
      From each according to his ability, to each according to his work.
      1. Sergey-8848
        Sergey-8848 6 December 2017 18: 18 New
        +1
        After all, it also implies the return of the product acquired as a result of labor.
  5. cedar
    cedar 6 December 2017 18: 02 New
    +4
    AI will implicitly solve the main problem facing the oligarchs - the reduction of humanity on Earth.
    Dehumanization in the West is gaining momentum. To amuse myself with the thought that for my beloved in this inhuman world of AI, robots and cyborgs, the oligarchs will leave a warm place, where I am a person, I will be engaged in creative work, at least naively, and if you look at the cruel truth in the eye, stupidity is utter. According to their plans, 6 out of 7 billion should be sent overboard soon. Ways you know. And since Russia got in the way of this man-killer plan of the banking oligarchy, we must first be sacrificed to scientific and technological progress, which in fact is a moral and ethical regression, i.e. the real Satanism, with its main attributes: lies and homicide.
    Anyone who does not see a blatant lie and widespread homicide in this world, is already flying overboard.

    500 000 000 ..!
    The tablets of Georgia. USA,
    1. dSK
      dSK 6 December 2017 20: 29 New
      +2
      Quote: cedar
      with its main attributes: a lie

      Hello Eugene! When asked by the Russian about how to translate "tolerance" into Russian, the European told him that it was "tolerance", he answered - it is clear that in the last century Russia had "houses of tolerance".
  6. Klaus
    Klaus 6 December 2017 18: 02 New
    0
    I have to do a bath, the forest stands, friendship 4 is who is with me? - that hero
  7. Klaus
    Klaus 6 December 2017 18: 09 New
    +2
    and to be honest, people don’t need much: bags of 20 oats, 10 buckwheat, half a ton of pasta, several boards and a pit. It’s sad that the end is not meager. It’s sad
  8. aybolyt678
    aybolyt678 6 December 2017 19: 25 New
    0
    It is noted that unoccupied hands stimulate the mind to search for a changed reality such as Alcoholic, Narcotic and Gaming .... and then evolution begins in the opposite direction laughing and in one life a person reaches the state of an animal.
  9. groks
    groks 6 December 2017 19: 41 New
    +2
    Achinea in the style of "St. Petersburg Jew Stanist." Namely, an attempt to justify unemployment by robotization. EdRosovsky order.
    Freelancers do not create a product. No serious organization will work with freelancers. If this is not the development of hairstyles for poodles.
    1. Lnglr
      Lnglr 7 December 2017 13: 03 New
      0
      Freelancers do not create a product.

      Illiterate nonsense. Any freelancer creates a product / service. If he pays taxes on his income, then his product / service is taken into account in GDP. Exceptions are financial transactions / transactions. If it does not pay, it is a shadow economy. This is a different topic.
      Regarding the fact that
      No serious organization will work with freelancers.
      nonsense too. He performed in his field of activity as a freelancer for 3 years. Received orders from many large companies, including state ones. He performed until one of the customers offered to take a vacant place in his company.
      Maybe the whole thing is that they did not quite understand the term "freelancer"?
      1. groks
        groks 7 December 2017 13: 55 New
        0
        So a product or service? And then divorced dog hairdressers (s).
        I am horrified at representing a bukhglava, whom no one has seen in his eyes and which no one has seen either.
        1. Lnglr
          Lnglr 7 December 2017 15: 51 New
          0
          PRODUCT OR SERVICE. No difference. Both are taken into account in calculating GDP. Well, with a few exceptions, I mentioned some of them above.
          Yes, imagine. And a hairdresser produces a product, and a medic, and a teacher
          On the fingers: if a person cuts others for money, that is, provides a paid service, and at the same time pays income tax, he takes part in the country's GDP growth. If a person cuts himself, this is not participation in the country's GDP. If a person cuts others for money and does not pay income taxes (that is, participates in the shadow economy), he also does not participate in the country's GDP growth.
          I am horrified to represent a bukhglava whom nobody saw in the eyes and which nobody saw either

          Well, if the customer and ... t - he can find such a "bukhglava". And if the customer is an adequate person and knows a lot about money, then why not find a freelancer for this, who, of course, will be checked first. Personally, I, as a freelancer, have never posted ads for services. Customers found me according to the recommendations of my old customers.
          1. groks
            groks 7 December 2017 18: 26 New
            0
            Really - what's the difference. Having rendered services to each other in a circle, we will receive a rise in GDP by several orders of magnitude. Only now there will be nothing to dress and nothing. Fine.
            Who can be hired by freelance, for example, VMZ (development and production of rocket engines)? VNIIS (military electronics)? Who can attract a bakery?
            1. Lnglr
              Lnglr 8 December 2017 09: 15 New
              0
              Do you like to equalize soft with warm? No one says that freelance at this stage will completely replace all jobs. But for a fairly large list of specialties, this is already happening.
              But on account of this
              Who can be hired by freelance, for example, VMZ (development and production of rocket engines)? VNIIS (military electronics)?

              I was attracted by representatives of one large enterprise to solve one problem. Do not blame me, I can’t name the company, since it has a direct relationship with the military-industrial complex
              1. groks
                groks 8 December 2017 12: 36 New
                0
                A. And I called the enterprises. Probably the employers had to somehow shut off work from the outside. Which is familiar, but completely not normal.
                1. Lnglr
                  Lnglr 8 December 2017 15: 18 New
                  0
                  Probably the employers had to somehow block the work from themselves.

                  Well, your idle speculation can be absolutely anything.
                  In fact, a narrowly focused specialist was needed, which was not provided for by the state - they concluded an agreement with a freelancer and that was all.
                  1. groks
                    groks 8 December 2017 15: 26 New
                    0
                    Teachers of Univer and Polytechnic regularly work with us. Under contracts ess. . From this they do not become freelancers.
                    1. Lnglr
                      Lnglr 8 December 2017 16: 56 New
                      0
                      the second time I suggest you to trivially deal with the concept of "freelance", and only then make "thoughtful" comments
                      1. groks
                        groks 8 December 2017 19: 06 New
                        0
                        Is the generally accepted version presented in pedagogy not appropriate?
  10. V. Ushakov
    V. Ushakov 7 December 2017 05: 07 New
    0
    Humanity is “waiting” - the apocalypse - The Last Judgment and the subsequent transformation, eternal life - by one, eternal death - by another.
    The apocalyptic Beast has already risen from behind (the) Ocean, the chipization-enslavement of man by the material world is in full swing, the surveillance of each other in front of our eyes turns into everyday life.
    How long humanity has stood, only God knows.
    In a word, read "The Revelation of John the Evangelist," everything is written there, already 2 years ago ...
    1. groks
      groks 7 December 2017 18: 27 New
      0
      ..... Amen! .....
  11. wei
    wei 8 December 2017 16: 10 New
    0
    For example, the brainchild of Mark Zuckerberg Facebook increases the staff of moderators to 7500 people.

    The number of Facebook users has reached two billion
    and given the creation of AlphaZero, moderators, translators, accountants ... will not be needed at all
    AlphaZero defeated Stockfish in chess. Out of a hundred games, Stockfish did not win a single one and made a lot of draws, but only playing as white. A 28 times lost.
    Stockfish - estimates 70 million combinations per second
    AlphaZero - estimates "only" 80 thousand positions
    AlphaZero spent 4 hours learning a game of chess
  12. sa-ag
    sa-ag 8 December 2017 18: 20 New
    0
    The proletariat has nothing to lose but its networks :-)
  13. Jmbg
    Jmbg 10 December 2017 19: 18 New
    +1
    Since 1994 I have been working as a freelancer. This is complete freedom. No bosses. Gospodar of his time. The author made me laugh. Social guarantee? My bank account. "There is no fixed working day, which means that they work" always ", without drawing clear boundaries between working and free time." Here it is. When is it my thing, what does "free time" mean? Free from yourself? Please don't care about me. I am happy and do not want another. I beg you, do not "free" me. I will resist at any cost to take away my freedom and replace it with your care.