But when it comes to talking about the prospects of serious battles in the Donbass, about the approach of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about the degree of readiness of LDNR armies for battles, many commentators have an iron argument like "everything in the APU is the same."
Indeed, in the comments to any article relating to the Donbass and the situation in the east of Ukraine, there will definitely be a group of “true patriots of the Russian world” and “guardians for the people of Donbass”. A group of those who will prove with foaming at the mouth the need to “allow the Donbass” an attack on Kiev and beyond. To run Ukrainian VSU "aki jackals mean".
Any reader or almost any of those who actually follow the publications on our resource, agree with our opinion. Soul we are all for the speedy resolution of the problem of the republics. And even in the overwhelming majority we hope that the residents of the republics will be able to restore the economy and other attributes of statehood. However, we need to control our own emotions and treat the situation wisely. See not what you want, but what happened today in reality.
Whatever we may say, but objectively, the Ukrainians' dream of European integration disappeared already in 2016. Today, Ukraine has no real levers of pressure on Russia. Extractive industries have already been replaced by domestic ones. Engineering too. Even the transit of goods by road successfully "left" to Poland. Next in line is the gas transportation system.
Trains run around Ukraine. Aircraft fly around Ukraine. Steamers sailing around Ukraine. Gas and oil too will soon go around Ukraine. And what goes to Ukraine? No matter how sad it sounds, the fact that the country literally exported 5-6 years ago. Thus, the only lever that remains in the hands of Kiev is the Russian people, Russian culture, the Donbass. Repressions in these areas give at least some trump cards in negotiations with Russia.
Unlike most ordinary people, the situation in Kiev was calculated long ago. This is not an accident or "surprising fact." Even the popular version in Ukraine with the seizure of power by "the wrong people" is nothing more than a hoax. Those people who were needed to do this work came to power. Ukrainians themselves planted themselves on the neck of the "drovers".
The question immediately arises of the grounds on which we reached such a conclusion. And for this you need to return to history backwards Someone remembers the first Donbass boilers? Not those about whom the patriots argue today on both sides. And the first and second? But the first in the boiler hit more Strelkov in Slavyansk. Remember more than a strange way out of the militia? And then there was Lysychansk. When the Ghost Brigade, escaping from the cauldron, left there almost all the equipment and art. And ammunition in such quantities that it captured the spirit.
These memories are not for sadness or hate. This is a reminder that even then, at the very beginning of the war, there were enough competent officers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine who were quite well planning operations.
There will immediately be shouts about the South (Izvarinsky) and Debaltsevsky. Everything is simple: another time, other people planned operations. Clear.
And now? After three years of war? Have you ever visited the Ukrainian resources for the sale of books? See the battle manual section. Very surprised. And if you carefully read at least one of them, you will understand that this is quality literature. And it began to be on sale already in 2014! And on the front end, according to the stories of fighters, in the abandoned trenches quite often found such benefits. Of the latest finds, a manual is given to combat Russian tanks. With an indication of weaknesses and ways of working in these places.
But this is "book science." But there is another. More simple and more effective. Practical training of soldiers. Who does this in the APU? Lapotniki from "jackets" or sergeants from the ATO and foreign instructors? One may laugh at NATO troops as much as necessary, but one should not underestimate military specialists from there. In NATO, "narrow specialization." Does anyone doubt the competence of Baltic snipers or sappers from Germany? Maybe the US marines are bad soldiers? Again, from conversations with Republican fighters. Snipers have become just a thunderstorm. Great weapon and sights in skillful hands. By the way, in the APU brigade now there is a company of snipers in the state. And in the Republican brigade - a platoon ...
And now look at the Republican corps. Yes, today there is a military training. Today, officers, of course, according to their abilities, train personnel. And who is next to the recruits? Where are the militia from Russia? Where are those who are among the first came out against the APU and terbats? Do you think they teach young? No, the first went home to Russia. The second went to work in Russia. Probably, now there is a reader who remembers the vacationers. They are also well prepared.
Only here is the problem. Even if we take for granted the presence of our "vacationers" in the Donbas, one unpleasant question arises. Hypothetically imagine that you are the commander of the unit. Receive an order to single out one "vacationer" combos. And immediately the second. About the next test or exercise. But tomorrow may be the third question. On the mission officer in the army in Syria. So which battalion will you send on vacation? The best or ...?
Training officers is also better with the APU. No matter how offensive it is to us, Ukraine today is using NATO's skills in training young officers, and teachers who know what war means are training future officers. Concrete war in the Donbass. One of the Republican artillery commanders told about the appearance of young officers in positions. This is not "burdock". Prepared qualitatively. Although "kosyachat" in his youth. But it will pass quickly.
From what is described above, there is another big problem for the republics. Just a huge problem. Do you know how many veteran IDs are issued in Ukraine by now? More 300 000! 300 thousands of ATO veterans! Not just soldiers, but veterans (a veteran from Latin means “survivor”) who went through the fighting. What kind of mobilization reserve has Kiev created over the years?
Even if not everyone rushes by the cry "to the front", but many will go anyway. Some for political reasons, some for financial reasons.
A few days ago, several media published "figures" for the autumn draft. Say, 3,95% of the stated number was called, the rest are on the run. At the same time, the figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense indicate that 10 460 planned for the 1 December call for 9 864 people. Of these, according to the plan in the APU - 6600, auxiliary troops - 800, the rest - the National Guard.
The spring call was also quite successful. Called about 14 000 people.
For comparison: in 2016, more than 150 thousands were called up.
Another figure: the number of forces of the Supreme Court of Ukraine on the line of demarcation is estimated at 30 thousand people. Findings? The findings are disappointing. The main part of combat-ready units are contract soldiers. Yes, the salary of 10-12 thousand hryvnia, a little. But try to find another in the civilian world.
And how many veterans in LDNR? We have already written above about those who started. No matter how much they say and write that these people, in case of danger for the republics, will return and be put into operation, the worm of doubts here has grown to anaconda. At least those who were volunteers at 2014 have no special desire to be deceived again.
In principle, again without emotion, how many corps of republics can wage war with the enemy, which increases not only the training of soldiers and officers, but also the technical condition of the army? At the same time having a much greater mobilization resource? Even without going into a "resolute offensive." We will not set a specific date, but for any less than the APU. And if they go on the offensive, the classic, then without a whiff of the "north wind" live the corps of three or four days. From strength, with great stretch, a week for everything.
Even today, the superiority of the APU in technology is noticeable even to a simple soldier. The "nerves of the army" (connection) went so far that it was even jealous to envy the republicans with their antediluvian walkie-talkies. The time when a fighter was sifting through the spotted mobile phone was gone. In the APU phones are taken away from the soldiers severely. But the radios give for every taste. APU switched to a number. American, Turkish, German radio stations. For every taste, but since NATO, they work wonderfully with each other. And in LDNR there is not a single brigade in which the entire connection is digital. None.
We have a lot of laughter on the topic of "non-lethal weapons", which are generously sprinkled into Ukrainian little hands. And in vain. Walkie-talkies, counterbattery radar, EW systems - all this is not flying. Yes, do not fly, do not kill. Nothing, it is quite normal to make others. Those with beautiful western optics, including night ones.
Another issue is that if necessary, the APU with the help of gifts can actually organize dead silence on the air. American ground-based EW systems are inferior in quality to ours. But here questions of availability and ability to use them. But in case of successful application, the LDNR fighters will find themselves again in 2013, but the APU will not.
A lot has been said about Javelins. If you look at the mind, then to combat the armored veterans of the militia / corps represented by the Ukrainian T-64 and T-72 (at best with the letter "B"), the RPG-7 is enough above the roof. With a trained shooter.
“Javelins” in the Armed Forces of Ukraine are needed precisely in the case when the enemy will be worthy. T-72B3, T-90, with the "Curtain", "Relic", and most importantly, with crews who know how to use them. Do not forget that Ukraine is at war with Russia.
Another moment. Laughed not so long ago on the exhibition of weapons. Bugaga, Ukrainians morons, samopalyami fighting. This is about the Maximov Spark. But clever people scratched their heads. The idea is good. Two “Maxims” on such a machine is not only an opportunity to cast a good lead over 3 kilometers, since there are plenty of ammunition in Soledar caves. On the one hand, this is a great firing point at the checkpoint (ask the Germans what quadruple Maxim and Heinkels were throwing off the plane), on the other hand, you can release and use a more mobile PC or PKK in the right place.
The same is true for PCT, for which machine tools also vary. And in Kharkov, at the tank repair plant, there are still hundreds of them in warehouses.
No, it is not to laugh here, it is necessary to think here. Compared with our army, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, of course, the goal is erratic, but the need for invention is tricky historically.
You can write many more facts that will play against the Republicans. Alas, this is so. But there is one rather serious argument for. The corps not only learned how to fight in defense, but also perfectly equipped their positions. Even though the Armed Forces of Ukraine are well aware of the defense of the Republicans, the intelligence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has long since become not to gather information on fields and fishing lines, but with the help of electronic warfare, UAVs, agents in parts of the LPR and other methods not related to the cinema “language searches”, to take they will not succeed in a swoop. Is needed aviation, air strikes are needed.
By the way, for those who doubt the availability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces aviation. Yes, airplanes and helicopters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces cause a smile rather than horror. But unmanned bombers that lay mines from 82-mm mortar from a height of 100-200 meters into a trench, like a pretty penny, are. These UAVs really bother the Republicans.
Another important point. Propaganda.
Ukrainian propaganda, as all events from 2013 showed, is a very strong thing. And in the situation in which it is conducted, Ukrainian propaganda is often more logical and understandable than our propaganda. Even with the sometimes fantastic dope filling. Believe and accept.
About the fact that they are stuffing the Ukrainian fighters into the heads, we will talk in another article in more detail, thankfully, we talked to representatives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who have served their services just a few days ago. It's worth it.
In general, today, we consider any talk about the march on Kiev, Kharkov and in any other direction as enemy propaganda. Propaganda pro-Ukrainian forces. It doesn’t matter where the cry “Forward to Kiev!” Comes from, from the trench or from the sofa. It is clear that from the couch, only there such rabid "experts" live. Tomorrow they will get up and go. To Kiev.
Who in the trenches, of course, they are silent. They have no cry than to occupy themselves.
Behind every shout of “Forward!” There are Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian provocateurs, whose dream is to destroy the Republican corps in the “open field” and seize the unprotected Donbass in a short time.
For every cry that if it were not for the Russians, we would have taken Kiev a long time ago, there are Kiev provocateurs. If the command and leadership of the republics does not give a command to the stupid attack and the heroic death of the soldiers of the corps, then the officers there are sensible. Clever officers who understand what the Forshmak corps will turn into in this attack.