Military Review

World War 2018 year held without Russians

97
The risk of war in the coming year is quite high, and there is no reason to expect peace, Swiss experts believe. There are two hotbeds of tension, and both can cause global conflict. Not far off is the new year, and with it the war. The most amazing thing is that in such forecasts from Switzerland no Russians are mentioned. Totally.


World War 2018 year held without Russians


About the risk of war, which will break out in 2018, argues the former ambassador, and now a newspaper columnist "The weather" (Switzerland) Francois Nordmann.

In the coming year, two hot spots can lead to war, warns Nordmann. The main actors will be North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

“The geopolitical situation” in the world “continues to deteriorate,” and the risk of war increases, even if “the population is not aware of this,” writes the author. “Of particular concern” are two hot spots: the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East.

What are the plans of North Korea? On this account is the opinion of a reputable expert. Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear specialist from the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, talks about the 50-percent probability of a war with North Korea as early as the 2018 year. North Korea is unlikely to abandon its nuclear experiments and missile program, despite the pressure of the United States and China.

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yunho has already warned the United Nations: nuclear tests are planned in the atmosphere over the Pacific region. So can we imagine that in these conditions, the American President Trump will not react to Pyongyang’s behavior, as he stated, “with fire and rage”?

Trump, it is indicated in the material, "may wish" to destroy North Korea’s launch sites and nuclear production points. weapons. Some people are "deceived," believing that the Kim Jong Un regime will not dare to strike back "because of the fear of a massive retaliation from the United States, Japan, and South Korea."

However, Nordmann warns, “nothing is obvious” like this.

Mark Fitzpatrick admits: the proposed exchange of blows may fall into the category of "psychological warfare." This kind of message can also be addressed to China, which, according to Washington, should not relieve the pressure on the DPRK and to which the UN sanctions should be applied “more strictly”.

Yes, North Korea does not give any obvious signs of an “immediate attack” of a nuclear strike. However, the current political season is not over yet. The spring will be known, the analyst notes, whether North Korea will refuse "its provocations" (talking about tests. - O. Ch.). If he does not refuse, continues Nordmann, then what will be the “appropriate response of the international community to these actions”?

And really: how to respond without risking a kindling of the Korean war?

And then there is another war on the way.

The analyst identifies the standoff between Tehran and Riyadh as the next focus of tension.

At the other end of Asia, Iran and Saudi Arabia are participating in another “militant rhetorical escalation,” accompanied by the roar of marching boots.

Here the interests of the players were distributed “unevenly”. Riyadh is concerned about the Iranian offensive, because Iran is advancing in the region after the collapse of the “Daesh” (“Islamic State” banned in Russia). The influence of Tehran has already spread to Iraqi Kurdistan, Syrian Kurdistan and Turkey. Iraqi forces, united with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, captured the cities of Kirkuk and Erbil, while the Americans simply abandoned their former Kurdish allies, who fought with them against Daesh.

A new alignment of forces in the Middle East is in addition characterized by the strengthening of Iran in the Mediterranean.

All this “causes concern” in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

A recent rocket attack on Riyadh attributed to Iran’s allies in Yemen, stuck in a war, political maneuvers of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, doing everything to strengthen his claims to the throne and modernize the kingdom, tensions around Lebanon, due to the technical resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, leads to concerns of the analyst about the "opening of the new front."

True, in Lebanon, the reaction of the population to the intervention of Saudi Arabia and the loyalty of the people to the Prime Minister, and at the same time the diplomatic intervention of France and China “extinguished the fire”. But the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is only getting worse.

2018 year will not be the year of the world; the risk of war in the world remains high, sums up Francois Nordmann.

Louis Lema in another room the same newspaper agrees with his colleague on the pen.

The threats of Donald Trump, he writes, have caused "tensions in the region." Will the United States, and with them a large part of the world, have such “tweets” to estimate the consequences of “fire and rage” that Mr. Trump promised the North Korean leader? What will happen? A military escalation will begin when the one who “nervously prepares for a possible war” stops the verbal “reaction” and makes an irreparable! Otherwise, all the words of Trump will show the world that all these statements are an empty threat, and in this case, the United States will be discredited: they will be considered a “paper tiger”.

The border between the two Koreas is one of the most militarized regions of the planet, and the military and strategists of all stripes and shades had several decades to foresee and think through all possible scenarios and prepare for them, the author recalls. Several times the United States retreated after advancing in provocations against the DPRK. In the 1994 year, for example, the Pentagon was accused of planning "surgical attacks" on a nuclear reactor in Yongbyon. The Americans suspected that plutonium was produced there for military use.

And what about the Korean nuclear program?

More July 28 Pyongyang launched an intercontinental rocket, theoretically capable of reaching the United States. After five nuclear tests, the country has probably already accumulated a large number of nuclear weapons. And nothing prevents Pyongyang from already placing its nuclear warheads on short-range missiles, aiming at South Korea, Japan or ... the American island of Guam, which North Korean propaganda loves to mention.

The games are over, says Jeffrey Lewis, a recognized expert at the Middlebury Institute. In his opinion, it is useless to continue pretending that North Korea has not become a “nuclear power.”

So now what? Limited hit?

Pyongyang’s “beautiful nuclear separation” from the entire planet is a real blow to the problem of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, the author believes. This is likely to provoke new aspirations in the region, as well as convince Iran to abandon the agreement on the nuclear program. It turns out that the United States, which is putting pressure on Iran, should “return to work” the idea of ​​limited strikes on North Korea and negotiate from a strong position?

Nevertheless, one should be sure that the Pyongyang regime correctly understands this kind of “intent”. Statements like "fire and rage, which the world has never seen" are unlikely to "calm" the North Korean leader, that is, they will force him to abandon the nuclear program and in general the idea of ​​arming himself. All the way around! Along the border, the North Korean regime deployed "thousands of artillery guns." If Kim Jong-un had only “felt himself” attacked, he could have subjected Seoul and the periphery of the city to a real flurry of fire. Only at its very beginning such a blow would have killed tens of thousands of people. How much time would it take to overcome this “armada” of Kim Jong-un, scattered across the country or hidden at the bottom of bunkers in the mountains?

The United States has little reliable information about this closed country. Here, even cyberwar in the full sense of the word is impossible. So, means a full-scale war?

But after all, there is a nuclear threat, albeit "in the background." Therefore, the prospect of total war is "unthinkable." At least for America. Under this scenario, the United States must deliver thousands or tens of thousands of its soldiers to the region. Apocalypse, which Donald Trump apparently promises to be verbal, threatens the lives of 25 millions of North Koreans and 50 millions of South Koreans, almost half of which live less than 100 kilometers from the border.

In addition to its nuclear potential, North Korea also has large stocks of biological and chemical weapons.

Maybe there is a third option?

“It's not too late,” Susan Rice wrote in a column published recently in the New York Times. (Susan Rice is a former US national security adviser. - O. Ch.) Washington lived for a long time with the "vibrant militant rhetoric" of the Kimov dynasty, she recalls. In her opinion, Comrade Kim may be "cruel and impetuous," but the behavior of the leader is quite rational.

Wait a minute, so what is this, a recipe from another "former"? Ordinary deterrence? Building up sanctions? And a close dialogue with China in order to fulfill all the agreements reached with the United States in relation to the DPRK? “A rational and stable American leadership can avoid a crisis,” the former adviser said.

What is this “rational and stable”? Same as Kim Jong Un?

* * *


It seems that in Switzerland, known for its special attitude to peace, neutrality and banks, they are very much afraid of a new global war. And they do not believe in the stability of Trump, or in the stability of Kim Jong-un. Both don't believe in rationality either.

Rationality in general seems to have disappeared from the politics of the 21st century. Everyone in his own way, but goes crazy. And Swiss analysts and experts are right in one thing: from the madness of the ordinary to the military - one small step. It is enough for some "rational" to conduct an unsuccessful test! ..

As for Iran, the pressure exerted on this country by the rational administration of Trump, who declared Iran to be a sponsor of terrorism, may well lead Tehran to the idea of ​​arming itself with nuclear missiles in the manner of Kim Jong-un. Purely for defensive purposes!

By the way. The Russian “threat” among Swiss analysts is not mentioned at all.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
97 comments
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  1. dSK
    dSK 5 December 2017 05: 56 New
    +3
    Quote: "] The 2018 World War will take place without the Russians." François Nordmann, columnist for the Le Temps newspaper (Switzerland), probably skipped the history lessons at school. hi
    1. dSK
      dSK 5 December 2017 06: 17 New
      47
      The most difficult period of 2018 for Russia is not an election, this is an internal matter, they will be held relatively calmly. That's when in June, hundreds of thousands of foreign fans will come to the championship and all the “siloviks” will be busy with policing ... Modern history: 2008, the Olympic Games in China - the “Ossetian” conflict, 2014, the Olympic Games in Sochi - the “coup” " in Ukraine. In ancient Greece, when the Olympic Games began, all wars ceased during the time of their holding. Our modern overseas partners have forgotten the word "conscience", and are preparing another "surprise".
      1. bulvas
        bulvas 5 December 2017 10: 25 New
        0
        Trump's noise with the DPRK is needed primarily to remove the burden from his person in his home in the United States.

        Settle the war - to kill people - the surest way to impeachment, and even to court
        1. Midshipman
          Midshipman 5 December 2017 12: 04 New
          +6
          Not a fact - if you kill one person, you are a criminal. Killing thousands is a hero. And if you kill everyone - you will become a god (s)
          1. Kors
            Kors 5 December 2017 20: 36 New
            +2
            There is another quote -
            "The death of one is a tragedy.
            The death of millions is a statistic. "
      2. Lycan
        Lycan 5 December 2017 10: 49 New
        +1
        Kindly like this:
        Quote: dsk
        The most difficult period of 2018 for Russia is not an election, this is an internal matter, they will be held relatively calmly
        ?
        We are talking about the next 6 years of life under an elected supreme person.
        It seems that there are parties in Russia who do not want to know who else to see on the throne for another 6 years. A plentiful “creep” of candidates is coming, with the accompanying not only verbal “frying” of the electorate.
        1. Foxmara
          Foxmara 5 December 2017 12: 54 New
          +9
          Quote: Lycan
          It seems that there are parties in Russia who do not want to know who else to see on the throne for another 6 years. A plentiful “creep” of candidates is coming, with the accompanying not only verbal “frying” of the electorate.

          Is it not enough that cockroaches under the stove think to themselves who is obliged to listen to them? 2% will be driven back under the stove .. Those who are an incomprehensible broom in places not so distant. For the jokes are over.
          1. Lycan
            Lycan 5 December 2017 17: 34 New
            +1
            Well, if only cockroaches, not rats brood.
            Failure - a prominent balabol and a bunch of "green" students can delay.
            Zu - 18% last time "bit off", but Zhirik 9%. Of course, the main applicant (if he suddenly decides to go) is not to surpass, but the whole picture can be "spoiled". But if “it is known who”, suddenly, it doesn’t go ... but “someone is new” is coming - “cockroaches” with “artists of the second plan” can “dilute / swamp” the situation in a notable and unpredictable / irreversible way.
            1. Baby sitter
              Baby sitter 5 December 2017 23: 43 New
              +2
              Yeah! That would be for your HAPPINESS !!!! GYYYY .. "Until tomorrow comes, you will not understand how good it is now" ... Who said ??
              1. Lycan
                Lycan 6 December 2017 09: 59 New
                0
                And why do we need to choose an unverified candidate with a provocative (if not “criminal” (recall Kirovles)) background?
                Just this "tomorrow" - for us it will be objectively worse than "now."
                Or are you talking about Sobchak?
        2. Vlad.by
          Vlad.by 5 December 2017 14: 33 New
          +9
          You come to Russia, to begin with, ask the people. There are always dissatisfied.
          But the ardent opponents of the "elected supreme person" can be counted on the fingers.
          Moreover, it, this person, has not even announced its ambitions.
          Forever crap run in front of a steam locomotive ...
          1. Oks
            Oks 5 December 2017 18: 11 New
            0
            And why are you all harnessed here to claim for all of Russia?
          2. Nick
            Nick 5 December 2017 22: 07 New
            +4
            Quote: Vlad.by
            Forever crap run in front of a steam locomotive ...

            That's right! good
        3. Archon
          Archon 7 December 2017 15: 43 New
          +3
          No one has a chance. You just have to go and all 100% vote for GDP.
      3. iouris
        iouris 5 December 2017 11: 58 New
        +4
        Quote: dsk
        That's when in June, hundreds of thousands of foreign fans will come to the championship

        Not the fact that the World Cup will be held in the Russian Federation.
        1. BAI
          BAI 5 December 2017 13: 18 New
          +1
          There is always a chance, but it seems to me that in the football world the position of the USA is weaker than in the IOC.
        2. racha4
          racha4 7 December 2017 17: 22 New
          0
          No need to vang !!! am I already ordered tickets for matches !!!
      4. Aleks713
        Aleks713 6 December 2017 09: 50 New
        0
        It is quite possible the next (alas!) Olympic war, or at least provoking a war - on the Korean Peninsula, exactly during the period of the Olympic Games-2018 or even the day before.
        Therefore, Russia, which does not send its team there, will only benefit.
        If it blows in the winter, then a geopolitical excess in the period of the football championship in the summer is quite possible. It’s just that so many potential centers have formed in the world (and their number is increasing), and there are so many who want to start something just during world-class events (for media purposes) that the likelihood of a catastrophe increases many times over. Alas...
      5. Alexander Skorik
        Alexander Skorik 7 December 2017 22: 50 New
        +1
        . (Our modern overseas partners have forgotten the word "conscience",) It is impossible to forget what has never happened. In the Christian sense, CONSCIENCE is the voice of GOD in the soul of man. Well !!! After rummaging through history, find at least one example of conscience among the naglosax.
    2. venzim
      venzim 5 December 2017 11: 00 New
      12
      Russians will not be allowed into the war as to the Olympics, oh yes, under a neutral flag laughing
      1. atakan
        atakan 5 December 2017 14: 16 New
        17

        But are they worth these very games of that humiliation?
        Can a professional sport be declared finally dead and bury?
        Does Ato stink from him from the start?
        1. Nick
          Nick 5 December 2017 22: 10 New
          +3
          Quote: atakan
          Can a professional sport be declared finally dead and bury?
          Does Ato stink from him from the start?

          And he can hold the real OI themselves. Create your own IOC, and make it a prerequisite to stipulate that “sick” athletes cannot participate in Olympic Games.
          1. Baby sitter
            Baby sitter 5 December 2017 23: 46 New
            +3
            Yeah! Only for healthy !! I AM FOR!!
          2. racha4
            racha4 7 December 2017 17: 25 New
            +1
            That would be fair! Tired of looking at pumped up asthmatics!
      2. Paranoid50
        Paranoid50 5 December 2017 22: 33 New
        +1
        Quote: venzim
        Russians will not be allowed into the war as to the Olympics, oh yes, under a neutral flag

        Russia will declare a boycott, having recused itself. yes Damn it, just a song ... Letov is a prophet:
        Flying a neutral flag
        Under a neutral sky
        Self-withdrawal, Self-withdrawal ...
  2. Chertt
    Chertt 5 December 2017 06: 38 New
    +2
    The forecast is made based on the development of existing conflicts. But the current situation in the world is different in that the conflict can arise, it would seem from scratch, and very quickly go into the "hot phase" The main threat is the destruction by America and the "collective west" of any rules. Establishment of an international stint
    1. The comment was deleted.
  3. 1536
    1536 5 December 2017 07: 03 New
    +7
    Start a war in Korea, Americans have a small intestine. They are accustomed to raking in the heat with other people's hands, and South Koreans can go to war with the North only in their dreams.
    As for the Middle East, no one there will not throw his harems for the sake of a Kalashnikov.
    Russia, alas, still does not know which coast to adhere to. They’re not allowed there, they are not allowed here. And if they let it in, then without any signs of distinction. Apparently, the time has not come yet for Russia. Now the main thing is to get together, not listening to the screams of some Swiss and various other Swedes, and one day just to act as the "forester Yegorych", who sent all the fighting ... to rest.
    1. NEXUS
      NEXUS 5 December 2017 14: 57 New
      +3
      Quote: 1536
      To start a war in Korea, the Americans have a thin gut

      The mattresses tidied up the Middle East, now they dug in S. Korea ... question-And who, by the end, will be responsible for this? They run up and blame those whom they teach life.
    2. Vlad.by
      Vlad.by 5 December 2017 15: 31 New
      +6
      But I have a slightly different view, it cannot be called a forecast either. So, think out loud - Americans need women. Blood will soon need wear. But, for the big broads with their own participation, they, at least now, are not ready either mentally or physically. And even after Korea and Vietnam the military spirit faded, “there are not enough real violent ones”, and the rest are ready to drive the Papuans only, and only before the first return shot.
      Therefore, I understand, they will take all “efforts” to make sure that the broads are arranged in such a way that they don’t personally slip in it, and it’s imperative to get into the process from a financial and commercial point of view. Otherwise, there is no sense in a babah.
      And where is such a woman in a year or two possible?

      Near East? Yes! But, time is lost, the positions are surrendered and, obviously, a very close confrontation with unpredictable Russians is possible.

      Balkans? Yes! There is something to cling to - unhealed Bosnia, the conflict between Greece and Turkey, "Great Albania" ... but you never know. But then again, Russians are looming nearby with their interests, and besides, this territory seems to be part of the EU and even NATO. Too much hemorrhoids.

      Korea? Here you can try to heat the heat with the hands of the southerners, but, firstly, not the fact that they will subscribe to it. These themselves are ready to delegate authority, and not waste their precious human resources.
      And secondly, this is again a zone of Russian interests, and even China, with Japanese interests, of course, there will be no special ceremony in which case no one will.
      Well, the worst thing - according to rumors, the northerners are ready and are already able to star up the most sacred, on the territory of the States themselves, and this option is not even hypothetically considered.

      Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others?
      An interesting place may well become a warm-up area and a distracting maneuver. In addition, there is no better place to create controlled chaos on all exchanges by manipulating energy prices. But, again, Russia looms behind Iran, their interests in the region are very similar now. Moreover, the influence of Russians in the place has grown significantly and they will certainly take advantage of this influence. Moreover, it is to the detriment of the States themselves.

      Afghanistan, Central Asia for the reasons listed above do not pull in the region of a possible strong Babakh. Sandwiched between China and Russia may wander slightly and boil, but it will be difficult to squeeze something serious out of the region.

      Any Venezuelan-Colombian friction is even considered laziness. There are no resources for a serious conflict in the region, harnessing not one's life, but none of the "sponsors" has the desire and will not. Boil and cool, and there it will be possible to cheaply redistribute local oil and coca.

      But! There is also the Indo-Pakistan incident. And here, in my opinion, the stars may well converge.
      Far from Russia and the USA. When clarifying relations, the troika of India, Pakistan, and China may well break down very serious firewood, which is very useful, to divert attention from economic problems and financial bubbles. Under these firewood, it is quite possible to tighten the nuts, clean the banks, write off debts and try to return investment in industry back to the United States, for example. Again, Lend-Lease!
      All warring countries will need to eat something, from something and shoot something. And all this for something to buy. The widest field for American plowing! Moreover, they ate more than one dog on this.
      In addition, even with the serious participation of CIA emissaries in fueling the conflict, it will be almost impossible to tie the States to it, which means that American participation itself will be purely advisory and will not threaten with a stern dozen nuclear missile strikes on American territory.
      And the scale of action in the region may be such that the world will change completely - if only countries with a third of the world's population would shred each other (to the delight of some)! Here you and, in a way, the solution to the problems of overpopulation, unemployment, lack of food ...

      These, of course, are thoughts from the category of fantasy, but ...
      A lot of effort to set fire to the wick is not required, and the benefits are higher than the roof.
      And something lately very little attention has been paid to this particular region.
      Calm before the storm?
      1. your1970
        your1970 5 December 2017 18: 43 New
        +2
        Quote: Vlad.by
        Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others?
        An interesting place may well become a warm-up area and a distracting maneuver. In addition, there is no better place to create controlled chaos on all exchanges by manipulating energy prices.
        -there is a risk that oil prices will skyrocket, they can skyrocket ...
        any military manipulations with China are fraught with cutting supplies from there, and the world sits on the needle of Chinese goods much more than we do on the oil needle
      2. Fosfor_ru
        Fosfor_ru 10 December 2017 19: 39 New
        0
        If we talk about Korea, then the Americans are unlikely to climb on them. Kim Jong-un is not crazy, he just tries to look crazy, so they don’t get involved. And China’s “pressure” on Korea is purely so that the conflict doesn’t flare up close at hand. I think, if God forbid, it burns, then to the small, but to the surprise of the Americans, China will recall its nuclear weapons, not Koreans, but those who, even half a century ago, encroached on their territory and independence. Then China also helped Korea, because everyone understands who in Asia they are wrapping red flags.
        About the Middle East. Of course, it was funny to read. Where does Saudi Arabia compete militarily with Iran? They can’t crush poor Yemen to the end. Only there is another country that is stirring up water more and more. Israel. In conjunction with the Americans, of course. Here are those campaigns intend to go to a limited military conflict in order to chop off another piece from the exhausted Syria. Well, or how it goes. Moreover, there are plenty of reasons, they already provoked the intifada
  4. BecmepH
    BecmepH 5 December 2017 07: 18 New
    +3
    Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, talks about the 50 percent probability of a war with North Korea as early as 2018

    And this
    opinion of a reputable expert.

    Cool))) i.e. war will or will not ...
    1. Foxmara
      Foxmara 5 December 2017 12: 55 New
      0
      Let's wait 2020. soldier
    2. Trapperxnumx
      Trapperxnumx 5 December 2017 13: 01 New
      +2
      Yes, yes, he also noted the whole "genius" of the forecast. Our Roshydromet is full of such experts - either it will rain or it will not ... Probability - 50%
      1. Kors
        Kors 5 December 2017 20: 52 New
        +2
        Yeah! Weather forecasts are approaching 100%
        Nizhny Novgorod. Lunch time, 12.50. I listen to the radio in the car.
        The announcer broadcasts about the weather and suddenly I hear - "IN Nizhny Novgorod TODAY! It is sunny in the afternoon, light rain in the morning, clear, calm weather in the evening, the temperature is blah blah blah .."
        Since morning! Charles! At 12.50!
      2. Seamaster
        Seamaster 5 December 2017 21: 39 New
        0
        Like meeting a living dinosaur on the street: either meeting, or not meeting.
        On 50 50.
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 5 December 2017 07: 22 New
    +2
    Swiss analysts do not mention Russian “threat” at all
    It is strange that we have moved away from the main US-European trend - Russia is to blame for everything. Iran, North Korea, and who is behind the escalation of tension in these regions? Probably you could not even put a question mark.
  6. Greenwood
    Greenwood 5 December 2017 07: 34 New
    +4
    I think there will be no war in Korea. A limited blow to the storage bases or airdromes of the DPRK will not cause a tangible effect. A significant part of the arsenals is located in underground storage facilities, the location of which is hardly known. The length and depth of the bunkers in the DPRK mountains, too, no one ever counted. And these limited “strikes” can provoke (and most likely will provoke) the DPRK to shell Seoul and the border military facilities of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and this already threatens with gigantic losses and destruction. And Japan may be under attack.
    Therefore, the prospect of a total war is "unthinkable." At least for America. In this scenario, the United States must deliver thousands or tens of thousands of its soldiers to the region.
    And there will be these thousands and tens of thousands of soldiers fighting boys against the millionth North Korean army.
    In general, the game is not worth the candle. Trump will bumble on Twitter and stop.
    1. Foxmara
      Foxmara 5 December 2017 12: 56 New
      0
      Quote: Greenwood
      And these limited “strikes” can provoke (and most likely will provoke) the DPRK to shell Seoul and the border military facilities of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and this already threatens with gigantic losses and destruction. And Japan may be under attack.

      I'm afraid that the United States wanted to spit on the victims of Japan and the South Caucasus.
    2. andj61
      andj61 5 December 2017 13: 45 New
      +6
      Quote: Greenwood
      I think there will be no war in Korea. A limited blow to the storage bases or airdromes of the DPRK will not cause a tangible effect. A significant part of the arsenals is located in underground storage facilities, the location of which is hardly known. The length and depth of the bunkers in the DPRK mountains, too, no one ever counted. And these limited “strikes” can provoke (and most likely will provoke) the DPRK to shell Seoul and the border military facilities of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and this already threatens with gigantic losses and destruction. And Japan may be under attack.

      Somewhere in the mid-90s there was also a period of exacerbation. The DPRK then had neither nuclear weapons, nor medium-range missiles, let alone ballistic ones.
      The State Department then ordered studies on possible victims in the event of a conflict. It turned out that in the first week at least 2 million South Koreans and up to 100 foreigners, including 000 Americans, would die. The US found these victims unacceptable. And they agreed with the DPRK on the normalization of relations.
      On October 1, 1994, the DPRK and the United States published a framework agreement on resolving the nuclear problem and resolving bilateral relations. The document, in particular, obliged the United States to take measures to build nuclear power plants in the DPRK on two light-water nuclear reactors with a total capacity of 2 million kW, and also, even before the completion of the construction of the first reactor by 2003, to ensure the supply of 500 thousand liquid fuel to the DPRK. t per year. An obligation was received from the DPRK to freeze and dismantle an existing gas-graphite reactor. In addition, according to the document, he guaranteed the preservation of the DPRK as a party to the NPT.
      But already in 2002, the Bush administration ceased to fulfill its obligations - and did not supply fuel, and did not conduct the construction of the promised reactors. In response, the DPRK repeatedly made statements about the inadmissibility of violation of the agreement by the United States, and its right to develop nuclear weapons in case of continuing breaches of the agreement .On October 21, 2002, US Secretary of State Colin Powell made a statement that the agreement on the re-equipment of the DPRK's nuclear program had ceased to be in force due to violations of the terms of the document by that country.
      Kim Jong Il immediately stated that the United States did not intend to fulfill this agreement and withdrew from it under a far-fetched pretext. And he launched his own nuclear missile program to the fullest.
      The result - we have the same situation as in 1994, that is, before the agreement, but the DPRK already has both missiles and nuclear weapons. This is US policy. They drove themselves into the current situation - and the escalation of tension continues. History does not teach them anything! bully hi
  7. ul_vitalii
    ul_vitalii 5 December 2017 08: 08 New
    +6
    Well, take a break. There is something to do, there is something to think about.
  8. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov 5 December 2017 08: 38 New
    +1
    The black hand of CHAOS has long hung over the world.
    1. demoniac1666
      demoniac1666 5 December 2017 10: 54 New
      +1
      All hope for the Emperor)))))) laughing
      1. Greenwood
        Greenwood 5 December 2017 11: 08 New
        +1
        Quote: demoniac1666
        on the Emperor
        lol The only living emperor is this one:

        There is little hope for him. Yes, and this old man will soon abdicate.
        1. Khazarin
          Khazarin 5 December 2017 19: 18 New
          0
          Misty king, and in ancient times did not have the title of an emulsifier, but this is still the case today! She is kirivnyk, Britain, Scotland, S. Ireland, Australia, Canada, N. Zelandia, and some other islands there!
      2. andrej-shironov
        andrej-shironov 5 December 2017 13: 38 New
        0
        smile Unfortunately, modern realities show that one can only rely on oneself.
  9. Herculesic
    Herculesic 5 December 2017 09: 05 New
    +2
    If the war starts just because of the desire of the United States to deprive one or another country of the right to live and develop peacefully, as this is desired by the population and authorities of a country, not the United States.
  10. novel66
    novel66 5 December 2017 09: 54 New
    +3
    but it’s interesting - if you just leave Eun (and the whole of North Korea) alone?
    1. Yngvar
      Yngvar 5 December 2017 12: 03 New
      +1
      Shtatniks will be bored, instead of armaments, switch to the production of peaceful products ... Money is not the same, and the dollar in the price will crash.
      They live only due to war!
    2. Foxmara
      Foxmara 5 December 2017 12: 59 New
      0
      Quote: novel xnumx
      but it’s interesting - if you just leave Eun (and the whole of North Korea) alone?

      That is not the reason. The reason for the emerging redistribution of power in the world - the United States is pushed to the side. This is what the Ulites of the United States cannot tolerate. This may be the cause of the war, and the reason is absolutely not important. Remember the first world. Everyone wanted a redistribution. Colonies, resources. There was a reason. Second World War. Again redistribution. The responsible person was appointed, the German nation was made guilty, then the winnings were counted.
    3. Khazarin
      Khazarin 5 December 2017 19: 22 New
      0
      No! They cannot understand this! They need to consult with the chef ...
  11. Indifferent
    Indifferent 5 December 2017 10: 35 New
    +8
    Again, there are a lot of words, but little help! What will happen in 2018 no one knows. And if anyone knows, then I’m not sure if this is true or fiction.
    Tensions between the DPRK and the United States can pass all year, but this does not mean that there will be a war. For the US, the stakes are too high. Where is the guarantee that one day a Korean ship and some modest admirer of the Kimov dynasty will not go into the New York port under the Guatemalan flag and right across from Manhattan will not activate a nuclear device. This is much more effective than a missile that can fly away and not there. And then all the financial bubbles that over the years have inflated the United States will burst along with New York. Extinguish the light, drain the water is called. The crisis will be such that the whole world does not seem enough.
    As for Russia, the snake is visible to the naked eye. It is during the World Cup to launch an offensive in the Donbass. You can’t imagine the best muck. Usually if this can happen, then it will happen. Do not miss the USA such a case! And Ukrainians are ready to hang themselves, but to spoil Russia. So the authors of the article write a lot, but there is little sense in their writing!
    1. Greenwood
      Greenwood 5 December 2017 11: 34 New
      +1
      Quote: indifferent
      one day, a Korean ship will not enter the New York port under some Guatemalan flag, and right in front of Manhattan, even a modest admirer of the Kimov dynasty will not operate a nuclear device before approaching the customs terminal.
      I remember there was a recent article on VO describing such a scenario. True, there the author did not propose to undermine New York, but the bay in San Diego, where the largest naval base of the US Navy is located.
    2. shinobi
      shinobi 5 December 2017 12: 22 New
      0
      Why does no one know? Thinking people know and say, nothing will happen, horror stories will remain so horror stories. Everything will settle down. And the elections will be held as usual, in the Donbas, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be cut off by the teeth once again. The media will continue to drive the blizzard and scare the layman. The bad news is that, after resolving the Korean crisis, the spread of nuclear weapons will no longer be stopped. This is the worst consequence of US behavior. The world as we know it is living out its last months. Without any global war.
    3. Old warrior
      Old warrior 5 December 2017 12: 50 New
      +1
      The war of 888 showed that there is another development.
  12. SERGEY KOZLOV
    SERGEY KOZLOV 5 December 2017 11: 02 New
    +5
    It is curious that the sources of war indicate, but the SOURCES of war are the USA (Great Britain) and Israel, no ... Whoever initiates these wars is as clear as God's day.
  13. Ingvar0401
    Ingvar0401 5 December 2017 11: 05 New
    +1
    Everything is clear with us - the 2018 elections will be calm and predictable. But what will happen to us in 2024, when GDP can no longer stand for election?
  14. Vasilenko Vladimir
    Vasilenko Vladimir 5 December 2017 11: 07 New
    0
    Quote: Swiss experts
    The risk of war in the coming year is quite high, and there is no need to rely on peace.
  15. Grandpa Mazay
    Grandpa Mazay 5 December 2017 11: 21 New
    +1
    How tired of you with your starters! Either indispensable war, then warming - cooling, then someone or something from outer space, then the devil knows what. You yourself are not tired of living in fear? I understand that an intimidated population is easier to manage, but not to the same extent count people!
  16. ASDik37
    ASDik37 5 December 2017 11: 29 New
    +5
    The Swiss are afraid that this time will not be able to sit out?
    1. iouris
      iouris 5 December 2017 12: 00 New
      0
      The Swiss do not sit back, but accept finances.
      1. Vasilenko Vladimir
        Vasilenko Vladimir 5 December 2017 12: 08 New
        +1
        Quote: iouris
        and take finances.

        this lafa is over, the Americans tried
  17. andrew42
    andrew42 5 December 2017 11: 40 New
    +1
    A couple of journalists simply tattered the paper to squeeze at least something into the empty columns. And the noise, the noise. Again, this is Switzerland, and these campaigns are voiced, of course, for the Swiss. Therefore, there is nothing about Russians there, because the Swiss and Russians are absolutely violet to each other from a geopolitical point of view - there are no mutual complaints, there are no common interests either. Well, in the end, if it were a financial forecast, or at least a hint of it, it makes sense to stop looking at it. However, money loves silence, and leaks here are usually false stuffing. In matters of the military-political sphere, the “Swiss examination” evokes only a kind smile.
    1. Strategy
      Strategy 5 December 2017 12: 01 New
      +6
      Generalissimo Alexander Vasilievich Suvorov is very revered in Switzerland, whose 290th birthday is celebrated in 2019. The Swiss very carefully (even more than in Russia) keep the memory of the great Russian General!
      1. Old warrior
        Old warrior 5 December 2017 12: 44 New
        +1
        In Our Time, Russia - this is Alexander Vasilyevich Suvorov.
        1. iouris
          iouris 10 December 2017 12: 49 New
          0
          Nowadays, Russia is Putin. Volodin said so.
      2. iouris
        iouris 10 December 2017 12: 48 New
        0
        Quote: Strategia
        The Swiss very carefully (even more than in Russia) keep the memory of the great Russian General!

        I think that the Swiss have a memory of Suvorov - stored separately from the memory of the Russian Federation.
        1. Strategy
          Strategy 12 December 2017 20: 45 New
          0
          Of course, after all, Alexander Vasilievich was not unlimited in Switzerland, as the "new Russians".
  18. shinobi
    shinobi 5 December 2017 11: 56 New
    +1
    Indeed, not a hint. But this silence is very loud. They are trying to put Russia out of the brackets, which means we can’t do without us either. And the funny thing is that if the Russian Federation acts as an uninterested mediator, negotiations will be held in a positive manner, and the Yankees will lose face. Actually, they will lose face in any situation. The situation is repeated as with the Obamov red lines, with the only difference that Eun himself can take any missile strike, even symbolic like that of Trump, to do so.
  19. Tolik_74
    Tolik_74 5 December 2017 12: 31 New
    0
    The third world, yeah, I agree, in the United States.
  20. Old warrior
    Old warrior 5 December 2017 12: 39 New
    +3
    World war can only be against Russia. Everything else is regional wars. Our business is to stand aside, gain strength, strengthen the inner core of the Country, and then act as the Justice of the Peace.
  21. BAI
    BAI 5 December 2017 13: 21 New
    +1
    In fact, until 2050, China was going to win 3 wars, the latter with Russia.
    1. Fosfor_ru
      Fosfor_ru 10 December 2017 20: 28 New
      0
      Why should China fight with Russia? When can I trade profitably? We do not impose any sanctions, we buy products of their production, we sell RAW MATERIALS. The perfect partner! Are our lands undeveloped? What for? The Russians themselves will master and sell what they get there for a normal price. And to arrange expansion? For what? Poor to produce? Russians in these territories are more profitable - they do not breed like cockroaches and give what they ask.
      And who will truly fight the nuclear power? China, without war, calmly and relentlessly oppresses its line, gaining world leadership
  22. polkovnik manuch
    polkovnik manuch 5 December 2017 14: 04 New
    0
    The year 2018 will probably be more difficult for Russia than the current one, there are many reasons, this is not global stability, and the attempts of the “partners” to drag Russia into the civil war in the outskirts, but I consider the upcoming presidential election as the most serious event, all partners will try to introduce local, the so-called “fifth column”, will try to play their contribution to the “development of Russian shit democracy” and the first violin, these “parasites” will try to work out overseas investments in the expanses of the “beloved homeland.” I consider it correct to pass the Law on Foreign Agents it's too late! It’s time to finally decide how we want to see our RUSSIA-MATUSHA, whether we want to remain a raw materials appendage of the West (and maybe the East!), Or all the same, without “effective managers” and “shift workers” we will build capitalism in Russia, with a human face!
  23. Meshchersky
    Meshchersky 5 December 2017 17: 31 New
    0
    Quote: Midshipman
    Not a fact - if you kill one person, you are a criminal. Killing thousands is a hero. And if you kill everyone - you will become a god (s)

    Rather, the opposite.
  24. Ferdinant
    Ferdinant 5 December 2017 21: 13 New
    0
    Russia does not need it
  25. Nick
    Nick 5 December 2017 22: 13 New
    +1
    [quote = Nick] [quote = atakan] Can a professional sport be declared finally dead and bury?
    Ato stinks from him from the very beginning? [/ Quote]
    And he can hold the real OI themselves. Create your own IOC, declare the current IOC illegitimate, etc. More information hype is shorter. and a prerequisite in the new IOC is to stipulate that "sick" athletes cannot participate in the Olympic Games. I think there will be countries that will support us. And then we'll see whose version of the IOC will become more popular.
  26. zibo1668
    zibo1668 5 December 2017 22: 37 New
    +2
    There will be no World War III veterans.
    Walter Mondale
  27. Abel
    Abel 5 December 2017 22: 54 New
    0
    Not a single world war without Russians took place, moreover, under the cries of "civilized Europe" - "Save, help !!!" You can recall France and the Russian expeditionary force, you can recall England with its “Battle for England” and the Ardennes breakthrough, and where there were Anglo-American troops, while Germany was strong. One way or another, this will affect us. And I wouldn’t touch the RK. There, the guys are simple, and if anything, they fire a nuclear missile without hesitation, and Seoul and American bases will definitely be covered
  28. Noname_2
    Noname_2 6 December 2017 03: 38 New
    +2
    Quote: 1536
    Russia, alas, still does not know which coast to adhere to. They’re not allowed there, they are not allowed here. And if they let it in, then without any signs of distinction.

    Russia is too big to cling to some coast. Let them approach us, but there is no trial.
    1. dSK
      dSK 6 December 2017 07: 17 New
      +1
      Quote: Noname_2
      Russia is too big

      Hello, Alexander! Two hands for! How can one not recall the famous phrase of Tsar Alexander III: "Russia has only two allies - the army and navy!"
  29. yana406
    yana406 6 December 2017 07: 34 New
    0
    Russia CE Europe)
    1. Old warrior
      Old warrior 10 December 2017 18: 12 New
      0
      Russia is Russia. The backbone of the whole of humanity, surrounded on all sides by wild tribes, that from the East, that from the West, imagining themselves for some reason the navels of the earth.
  30. Cynic
    Cynic 6 December 2017 08: 37 New
    0
    We will not come again ?!
  31. cat
    cat 6 December 2017 10: 22 New
    0
    Well, without the Russians. in the Olympics, we are denied. here it will strike
  32. Victor Popov
    Victor Popov 6 December 2017 11: 40 New
    0
    they have it all down ... maybe it's time to scratch ...
  33. monah2987
    monah2987 6 December 2017 15: 46 New
    +1
    It is beneficial for the United States to organize "cockfights", but without an active one - the issue of conflict manageability, having solved it, provocative battles will follow.
  34. kush62
    kush62 7 December 2017 03: 27 New
    0
    What are North Korea’s plans? In this regard, there is the opinion of a reputable expert. Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, talks about the 50 percent probability of a war with North Korea as early as 2018.

    What are the accurate forecasts of a reputable expert. I am not a reputable expert, but I can give 50% probability for absolutely any phenomenon. Or yes or no.
  35. Midshipman-53
    Midshipman-53 7 December 2017 10: 51 New
    0
    It's a shame. Apparently the time is coming when it is time for our globe to fly away from Orbit. The world war is also world war because there will be no neutral countries in it. If the Swiss "fortune tellers" think that this war will not hurt them, then they are very mistaken!
  36. vinni-puk
    vinni-puk 7 December 2017 11: 28 New
    +1
    If the Americans get into Korea, then in any way Russia will be in the subject. Pindoshakaly, as usual, cross-eyed and "accidentally" may miss the territory of Russia. So there is no time to sleep.
    1. Old warrior
      Old warrior 10 December 2017 18: 15 New
      0
      Yes, they won’t get into Korea - it’s a painful link-up and a point-and-bench press: Korea has nuclear weapons, tea is not Iraq and not Libya, where these goats have just rushed to make sure that these countries do not have WMDs.
      1. Fosfor_ru
        Fosfor_ru 10 December 2017 20: 42 New
        0
        And there is China behind them. Who doesn’t want to fight for Korea again, but if anything, he will intervene
  37. gendowar
    gendowar 7 December 2017 21: 46 New
    0
    While the American raskoryachilis in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula thanks to the Thrombus, DLNR leaders need to beat off their former territories to the sound of waves!
  38. Forever so
    Forever so 7 December 2017 22: 20 New
    +1
    Destroy the Jewish clans of America and all world wars will end. Henry Ford.
  39. Aleks255
    Aleks255 10 December 2017 15: 28 New
    0
    Maybe you need to take the DPRK under your protection (together with China), give him guarantees of this? As a result, eliminate his nuclear weapons. Eun’s position will be immediately clear - he’s just a provocateur and is looking for something to distract people from the economy, he is really defending himself. If you get this situation, many will reach us for protection.
    1. Fosfor_ru
      Fosfor_ru 10 December 2017 20: 47 New
      0
      Stalin already gave such guarantees, and then Khrushchev sent everyone and relations with China failed. Only Putin began to slowly gain confidence among the Chinese.
      You all after Syria decided that the world will fall into our legs? Or at least start to trust? I dare to assure, so many countries do not think so, including Koreans
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  43. Misha Kvakina
    Misha Kvakina 14 December 2017 08: 32 New
    0
    The main conductor of US aggressive policy is Japan ... So Japan should get it !!! do not want??? Let the Americans throw them in the trash .... Then they can get some guarantees from the DPRK. And the Japanese economy got into a stupor thanks to the Americans. With all due respect, a lot of Chinese is already appreciated. They pulled themselves up in quality very significantly. A little more and many parameters will be offered to the whole world. And you get used to the good very quickly !!! And they are not looking for good from good !!! Mr. Xi is no less popular than Mr. Putin ... Assad and Erdogan are already added to them ... And there is still a whole cohort of politicians on the way, and alas, not their Anglo-Saxon camp !!!