Military Review

A crisis is coming. What to do?

47
Many economic crises are predictable. They have a cyclical nature, which allows economists to predict their onset. Each cycle includes four phases: the actual crisis (in essence, “falling to the bottom”), depression (being in a crisis state without real opportunities and prospects for remedying the situation), revitalization (gradual “rising from the knees” to the previous, pre-crisis level) and recovery (reaching new heights of development). That is, cyclical crises have regularities of their development and if the maximum of economic development is reached, then there can only be a crisis ahead, and only then - depression and gradual recovery, followed by recovery.


If we apply this model to the analysis of the development of the Russian economy in recent years, we see that Russia is now going through a phase of recovery. The pace of production is gradually increasing, the quality of products is growing. The revival could well have developed into a boom in the national economy, but there is one very significant problem - modern Russia is too tightly integrated into the world economy and too dependent on the economic situation and events in other states, including the United States.



In 2009, the US economy emerged from the 2007-2009 crisis, after which the gross domestic product of the United States grew steadily. At the end of 2010, the United States managed to exceed its pre-crisis GDP figures. So began the phase of recovery of the American economy, which has been going on for almost 7 years. Experts say that such a long period of continuous GDP growth indicates the inevitable approach of a new crisis. If we turn to an analysis of the previous features of the development of the American economy, then it is clear that all the stages of recovery also lasted on average about seven to nine years. Then crisis and depression inevitably followed.

Candidate of Economic Sciences and Banker Vladimir Gromkovsky highlights the following criteria for the coming economic crisis.
1. Capacity utilization rates
Before the onset of the crisis, capacity utilization begins to gradually decline. This is due to the fact that, despite the beginning of a decline in demand for products, all new and new production capacities continue to run due to inertia. As a result, we see how new shops are being built, new equipment is being commissioned, but it is no longer possible to load it with the proper amount of products. Production capacity starts to load less than they should. Currently, the level of utilization of US manufacturing capacity began to decline.
2. Stock market condition
As a second important indicator of the coming crisis, V. Gromkovsky highlights the state of the stock market. If the crisis is nearing, the stock market overheats, which is associated with an increase in stock purchases and an increase in their prices. Numerous speculators, non-professional players appear on the market. More money is invested in the securities market, while investments in the development of industry and trade are gradually decreasing.
3. Number of building permits
Immediately before the crisis, the number of permits issued for the construction of residential buildings begins to decrease. The issuing bodies understand perfectly well - if there is a crisis, the majority of citizens or legal entities will not be able to bring the construction of buildings to commissioning. Actually, this is what happened in Russia in 2014-2015, when the real estate market crisis followed currency inflation and sanctions. Sales of residential and commercial real estate have drastically reduced, many facilities under construction have “risen”, which again actualized the problem of “defrauded real estate investors”. Meanwhile, construction companies do not hand over objects not because of their “maliciousness” or the desire to steal other people's money, but for the reason that they simply do not have the means to complete construction.

Gromkovsky highlights another very important point - the growth of public interest in “virtual” finances and “virtual” financial speculations. Back in the already distant 2009, someone Satoshi Nakamoto presented the first Bitcoin to the world. A bit later, two pizzas were bought for 10 of thousands of bitcoins. In February, 2011, the cost of one bitcoin rose to one dollar, but most experts were sure that cryptocurrency is unlikely to significantly increase its price. But after a few months, the world was shocked - Bitcoin rose in price right 28 once! Years have passed - and now Bitcoin costs $ 8700 (a mark of the Coindesk exchange on Saturday 2 December 2017 of the year). The capitalization of the cryptocurrency market increased to 255 billion dollars - ten times compared with the figures for April 2017 of the year (25 billion dollars).

Meanwhile, a number of experts are convinced that the boom in the cryptocurrency market foreshadows a global financial catastrophe. For example, the German economist and banker Jens Weidmann draws attention to the instability of digital currencies, but believes that banks should be bothered to strengthen control over cryptocurrency. If banks switch to the use of digital currency, they will be able to significantly secure their positions during economic crises. Indeed, in crisis situations, people first of all “run” to the bank in order to withdraw all the available cash. In turn, banks are puzzled by the protection of their funds from such withdrawals.

It is clear that cryptocurrency currently violates the monopoly of banks on financial transactions and the storage of money, as well as prevent the establishment of full state control over foreign exchange transactions. Thus, since in the modern world the process of cryptocurrency exit from the shadow sphere gradually begins, the state is moving to a more loyal policy regarding the cryptocurrency market. The rising cost of cryptocurrency has objective reasons. First, a number of states are interested in attracting investment through the legalization of cryptocurrency transactions. Secondly, blockchain technology is becoming more and more active - not only in the financial sphere, but also in the sphere of public administration (the same Dubai, where they are going to transfer the entire system of power in the emirate to blockchain technology).

At the same time, the features of the development of the modern economy are such that there is hope for the emergence of some “counter-cyclical” mechanisms that can significantly delay the onset of the global financial and economic crisis. Of great importance for world markets, in particular, was the election for the post of US President Donald Trump. As you know, Trump has his own program for the development of the American economy. President Trump sees the need to revive production, return to the extraction of raw materials on American territory and reduce US dependence on other states and markets. If Trump succeeds in creating such conditions that the creditworthiness of the American manufacturer rises, then it will be possible to really talk about the postponement (in the long run) of the economic crisis. However, so far Trump speaks only about changes in the tax system in the USA, which are important, but not so significant in the scale of the problem we are considering.

A crisis is coming. What to do?


However, the American economy is American, and we are concerned about how the processes occurring in the American and world markets can affect the Russian economy and what to expect in our country. As we know, in recent years, the policy of the Russian leadership is aimed at improving the economic security and self-sufficiency of the country. The introduction of sanctions against Russia, oddly enough, led to our economy and to positive consequences, primarily in the direction of the development of domestic production. Nevertheless, it is impossible to achieve complete autarky in modern conditions; moreover, this is detrimental to the economic development of the country. Therefore, Russia will still react to the world crisis, even being in the stage of reviving the national economy.

Any disturbing changes in the global financial market have always entailed the desire of investors to reduce the risks of their investment portfolios. In other words, as soon as there is a threat of an economic crisis, investors tend to transfer their funds to such funds, which are least subject to risks and are guaranteed to save investments. Naturally, in the event of the unreliability of the currency of any state, investors will immediately seek to get rid of such currency in favor of more reliable currencies. In the modern world, the strongest positions still retain the dollar, although there is every reason to believe that its domination may falter in the future. It is the dollars that Russians are starting to buy in a crisis situation, and the value of the dollar immediately increases. So it was all over the modern, post-Soviet Russian stories.

It should be remembered that the Russian ruble is the currency of the country exporting raw materials. Such currencies are regarded as unreliable and, when the economic crisis approaches, they prefer to quickly sell them and exchange them for more reliable currencies or investments. The fact is that the currencies of countries - exporters of raw materials, and Russia are no exception, are dependent on oil prices. It has long been known that a cyclical economic crisis entails a reduction in the demand for oil and oil products, which inevitably "collapses" the currencies of countries - exporters of oil. Fall oil production contributes to a very impressive change in the price of a barrel.

Since the bulk of Russia's income comes from the sale of raw materials, primarily hydrocarbons, the Russian economy is directly dependent on the economic situation of the United States. A crisis begins in the United States — and inevitably follows, firstly, a fall in oil prices and a decline in revenues from its sales, and secondly, an exit of investors from ruble investments. The ruble falls dramatically in price, aided by the desire of people to transfer their savings into the dollar equivalent.



How does the decline in oil prices in the Russian market? First of all, the consequences of the economic crisis are well seen on the example of the real estate market. For a long time, real estate prices in Russia grew and reached a very high level by the 2010 years. Then, when in 2014-2015. there was currency inflation, real estate prices in dollar terms fell very much. For example, if before the crisis, an apartment cost 2 million rubles, which was approximately 57 thousand dollars, now the cost of the same apartment (at best) is also 2 million rubles, only now it is 34 thousand dollars. Accordingly, those people who had savings in dollars (and euros), as a result of the crisis, significantly increased their purchasing opportunities. Suffice it to recall, as in 1990-ies, real estate prices, as well as many other goods, were indicated in "conventional units" - cu, at a cost equivalent to a dollar.

What investments in modern conditions remain the most reliable? First, you should transfer your savings into "hard" currencies. These include, of course, the dollar. Those who translate at least part of their savings into dollars, as a rule, always win in case of large-scale crises (we are talking about ordinary citizens). If we talk about the long term, then you can keep some of the funds in currencies, which in this cycle should demonstrate sustainability. Do not be afraid of losing bank interest - in any case, it will be a less tangible blow than the losses that will be incurred if the exchange does not take place.

Secondly, we must be very careful about real estate investments. Property prices will fall, and if the downward trend in oil prices persists, then ultimately prices for Russian real estate may fall several times. If an investor wants to save and increase his money, then investing in real estate during the crisis period is a rash step. And this applies to residential and commercial real estate.

However, on the other hand, the decline in real estate prices has its advantages. If a citizen has sufficient savings, then with a maximum reduction in real estate prices, he can at low prices provide housing “for the future” of his children and grandchildren, as well as create a portfolio for passive income, which he will be provided with renting of cheaply purchased real estate for rent. Rent apartments and rooms in large cities where there is work and educational institutions will always be. As we know, housing surrendered even in the terrible war years. Having “extra” housing, even in a crisis, you can secure a living wage for yourself, independent of the presence or absence of work or any allowances and pensions.
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  1. RASKAT
    RASKAT 4 December 2017 18: 13 New
    +3
    The main thing for us is not to get involved in a new war. Which perhaps they will try to impose on us. Keep away from this further, let them already collapse. As the saying goes, if your opponent stumbled no need to help him let him fall.
    1. Chertt
      Chertt 4 December 2017 18: 15 New
      +2
      Quote: RASKAT
      As the saying goes, if your opponent stumbled no need to help him let him fall.

      “Who is that, he says?” Captain obvious laughing author ... author
      1. dSK
        dSK 4 December 2017 21: 28 New
        +4
        Quote: Chertt
        . the author

        Russian economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev is the founder of the theory of economic cycles, known as the "Kondratiev Cycles". He was arrested by the OGPU on June 19, 1930 on a false charge. On September 17, 1938, the Military Collegium of the Supreme Court of the USSR sentenced him to death and shot him on the same day. Twice rehabilitated - in 1963 and 1987.
        1. dSK
          dSK 4 December 2017 21: 45 New
          +3
          The period of the Kondratieff waves is 50 years with a possible deviation of 10 years (from 40 to 60 years). The first phase - before the beginning of the upward wave of each large cycle, and sometimes at the very beginning of it, significant changes are observed in the conditions of the economic life of society. Changes are expressed in technical inventions and discoveries, in changing the conditions of money circulation, in strengthening the role of new countries in world economic life. (Genetics, computer science; Cryptocurrencies; China, India.)
          1. dSK
            dSK 4 December 2017 21: 50 New
            +2
            "The second phase- periods of upward waves of large cycles, as a rule, significantly richer in major social upheavals and upheavals in society (revolutions, wars)than periods of bearish waves. "Who first implements new scientific and technological achievements, he begins the limit of the world.
            "The third phase"- bearish waves of these large cycles are accompanied by a prolonged depression of agriculture. It will not be soon. hi
        2. Conductor
          Conductor 4 December 2017 22: 28 New
          0
          That is, Kondratiev spent 8 years under investigation? Not really, most likely sat.
          1. dSK
            dSK 4 December 2017 23: 48 New
            +3
            Kondratyev was one of the founders and the first director of the Market Institute at the People's Commissariat of Finance of the USSR (1920-1928). In 1920-1923 - in the People's Commissariat of Agriculture, head of the department of agricultural economics and politics and a "scientist." He worked in the agricultural section of the USSR State Planning Commission. Under his leadership, a long-term plan for the development of agriculture and forestry of the RSFSR for 1923-1928 was developed. (Kondratyev’s agricultural five-year plan), combining planned and market principles. More details: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev. hi
            1. dSK
              dSK 5 December 2017 00: 03 New
              +2
              Quote: dsk
              redivision of the world
              is in full swing - NATO was founded on April 4, 1949 in the United States, with the goal of protecting Europe from Soviet influence. Then the NATO member states became 12 countries: USA, Canada, Iceland, United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Denmark, Italy and Portugal. NATO members are currently 29 countries. The Warsaw Pact concluded in 1955, in contrast to NATO, like the USSR, has long been gone.
    2. Ural resident
      Ural resident 4 December 2017 21: 59 New
      +3
      Last time, when the American economy stumbled, Putin promised with all his might to help strengthen the dollar ..
  2. svp67
    svp67 4 December 2017 18: 29 New
    12
    A crisis is coming. What to do?
    In Russia, it has long been answered this question: "Plant a garden"
    1. Kleber
      Kleber 4 December 2017 18: 41 New
      0
      Quote: svp67
      A crisis is coming. What to do?
      In Russia, it has long been answered this question: "Plant a garden"

      Really.
      1. Tatyana
        Tatyana 4 December 2017 18: 51 New
        +6
        svp67
        A crisis is coming. What to do?

        In Russia, it has long been answered this question: "Plant a garden"
        Oh, Sergey! You still need to get to the garden - for this, too, money is needed! Or sit in the country without a break and give up daily work! And how much more do you need to buy to maintain this garden to feed the plants while you grow the crop ?! In addition, it depends on the climatic zone in which this garden, or else "diamond" vegetables for the family, can turn out - turn into an additional loss!
        It’s better not to have crises!
        1. svp67
          svp67 4 December 2017 19: 02 New
          +6
          Quote: Tatiana
          It’s better not to have crises!

          This is only on condition that we return to the construction of a "bright communist future", but who will return us there ... sad
        2. Victor N
          Victor N 5 December 2017 10: 56 New
          +1
          Crises do not ask anyone for approval and come at the most inopportune moment. And no power, even the best president, is a decree to them.
          But panic is not worth (as the author).
          The real estate market is really overheated (prices are too high by both speculators and builders), the liquidity of the goods is low - it can’t be quickly sold, and in case of social and political cataclysms the possibility of selling is close to zero (clearly: Lugansk, Donetsk, and Mariupol).
    2. Chertt
      Chertt 4 December 2017 18: 42 New
      +4
      Quote: svp67
      A crisis is coming. What to do?
      In Russia, it has long been answered this question: "Plant a garden"

      Correctly. if you say the scientific "develop a self-sufficient economy" in the industrial agricultural and financial sphere. That would not depend on the global economic system
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. andrej-shironov
      andrej-shironov 5 December 2017 08: 45 New
      0
      wink Maybe just transplant ...
  3. Loess
    Loess 4 December 2017 18: 38 New
    +2
    I drew two conclusions from this article. 1.
    The crisis in the United States is beginning - and it inevitably follows, firstly, a drop in oil prices and a decrease in the proceeds from its sale, and secondly, investors are withdrawing from ruble investments.
    The USA is to blame for everything) 2.
    If a citizen has sufficient savings, then with the maximum possible reduction in property prices, he can provide low-priced housing for his children and grandchildren, as well as create a portfolio for passive income that will provide him with renting out cheaply bought real estate.
    If you have a damn money, then the crisis is on your side ...
  4. Scopolamine
    Scopolamine 4 December 2017 19: 24 New
    14
    I don’t know what kind of "growth of production capacities" in the USA the author says. America has long been a "Post industrial service based economy". I do not see any new factories, only closed and abandoned and half-dead converted into warehouses of the industrial zone. The stock market has also played enough for the same reason. I don’t know where these statistics come from and I don’t believe her. Speculation of land for development as well as development itself is the basis of a quick and relatively painless enrichment for a small investor. At the state level, the annual trillion budget-trade deficit is covered by foreign rich people buying up business and real estate in the metropolis and poor people buying dollars on the periphery of the empire. The flow of refugees with money should always be, which means an eternal small war with for the ideals of "democracy." Well, the "virtual projects" of "breakthrough" technologies, especially for the very gullible, to collect the "virtual" loot and collapse in a bubble, are very useful for financial stability.
    Russia needs to create more good and different money for business settlements. To squeeze financial speculators, introduce exchange trading on pre-bid currency. Do not be fooled by other people's virtual values. And plant an endless stream of all the children of Ostap Bender.
  5. serriy
    serriy 4 December 2017 20: 04 New
    0
    Those. The moral of the article is that cryptocurrency can cause a banking crisis in any country.
    Cryptocurrency market capitalization rose to $ 255 billion

    For America, this is a minuscule. And enough for us, if you allow the active circulation of Bitcoin. Liberasty is actively in our favor for this idea - mining farms, cryptocurrency exchange trading, cashing out.
    That is, everyone was waiting - the dollar will collapse. Americans, the campaign, figured out how to avoid it.
  6. Thunderbolt
    Thunderbolt 4 December 2017 20: 07 New
    +1
    A crisis is coming. What to do?
    To stock up on dollars. There is no trust in rubles, already five times he has broken the country on one knee, scientists already. He sways from the slightest hesitation in oil, plus local "wise men" just love to bring down the ruble for the population if "something went wrong." Why only for the population, I say? After all, then whole budget programs are adopted to save, for example, the beloved banking sector. And then nobody compensates the ordinary person. And according to the logic of the government, he should also be grateful for such "good deeds."
  7. AllXVahhaB
    AllXVahhaB 4 December 2017 21: 08 New
    +4
    First, you should translate your savings into “hard” currencies. These include, of course, the dollar. Those who convert at least part of their savings into dollars, as a rule, always win in case of large-scale crises (we are talking about ordinary citizens). If we talk about the long term, we can store part of the funds in currencies, which in this cycle should demonstrate stability. Do not be afraid of losing bank interest - in any case, this will be a less tangible blow than the losses that will be incurred if the exchange does not take place.

    Then I immediately remember 1998. There was such a "grief financier" Yegor Gaidar. So after the start of the default, he broadcast from the screens of the central television, roughly the same thing: "in a week the dollar will be 30, in two - 50, in three - 60, in a month -100, and by the end of the year I won’t even guess how much - 200,300 ..." (C)
    And then, by my youth and stupidity, I held several liberal views and listened to the expression of such "luminaries." Therefore, not only that accumulation, but even withdrawn working capital and transferred to bucks. And he, this $, began to fall, and for a long time and steadily! But somehow we need to live and conduct business, and in rubles! As a result: I took $ 24 rubles, sold 10 rubles! negative Then I lost my first apartment, which I acquired two years before! And only by the middle of 1999, somehow, he got out and began to rise again, practically from scratch. Since then, my views have slowly but inevitably begun to shift toward socialism. And I don’t stand any expert demagogues with their forecasts, spiritually! All their recommendations are fortune telling! angry
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 5 December 2017 11: 26 New
      +1
      Quote: AllXVahhaB
      Then I immediately remember 1998. There was such a "grief financier" Yegor Gaidar. So, after the start of the default, he broadcast from the screens of the central television approximately the same thing: “in a week the dollar will be 30, in two in 50, in three in 60, in a month in 100, and by the end of the year I won’t even guess how much 200,300 ... "(s)
      And then, by my youth and stupidity, I held several liberal views and listened to the expression of such "luminaries." Therefore, not only that accumulation, but even withdrawn working capital and transferred to bucks. And he, this $, began to fall, and for a long time and steadily! But somehow we need to live and conduct business, and in rubles! As a result: I took $ 24 rubles, sold 10 rubles! negative Then I lost my first apartment, which I acquired two years before! And only by the middle of 1999, somehow, he got out and began to rise again, practically from scratch. Since then, my views have slowly but inevitably begun to shift toward socialism. And I don’t stand any expert demagogues with their forecasts, spiritually! All their recommendations are fortune telling!
      And sad and funny. Yes, trusting Gaidar after what he and his team arranged in the 90s was extremely naive.
      1. AllXVahhaB
        AllXVahhaB 5 December 2017 14: 36 New
        +2
        Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
        And sad and funny. Yes, trusting Gaidar after what he and his team arranged in the 90s was extremely naive.

        Well, so I wrote: I was young and stupid. It was also a product of his era and of his environment in which he grew up. My parents, although they were Soviet middle managers (mother, head of a kindergarten at a large construction trust, father of a deputy director of a factory of reinforced concrete products), were at heart dissidents. From childhood I absorbed the atmosphere of kitchen gatherings with political conversations, Okudzhava with a guitar and criticism of the Soviet regime. In 1968, one of my uncles was kicked out of the Novosibirsk University for the poster “Hands off Czechoslovakia,” and my other uncle later became the first secretary of the city committee in our city. Here is such a vinaigrette ... When one of my classmate asked a stupid children's question: I would like to travel back to 1917 in order to storm the Winter Palace, I answered with confidence: I would defend him! Here I was such a “baker” with a red tie around his neck and a cross-stitch sewn into the lining, which my great-grandfather put on me at baptism — the abbot of the Tomsk Cathedral. Two great-grandfathers - Semirechye Cossacks, one fought against Annenkov, the other against Frunze.
        In general, I entered the 90s with the firm conviction that we were on the right path! Moreover, regarding the fact that “abroad will help us” I did not experience any illusions. He was a liberal of the American version - everyone is free to rise and free to fall. Surviving - the strongest and nothing to whine about the losers! It’s a shame to recall now, but I sincerely voted for the PCA and wondered what all the state employees teachers / doctors whine about, that they don’t get paid for half a year? Let them get fired - I won’t need workers in the northern shifts, I pay regularly, during and 10 times more! And if everyone quits, you look and the state will have money for salaries. That was such a dol ... m. But life, since 1998, began to put everything in its place. No, of course, if I were someone like Hodor or Prokhor, I would protect my capital. Or a senior official. Or I would remain with the looks of a maydanut horse on a grant needle. Here I am not amusing myself with false illusions. But those who are engaged in real affairs, in real life quickly understand what's what. This I not only judge by myself. In their surroundings, many of whom started in the 90s, who rose a lot, some who didn’t really ... But all of them, over time, were refocused on socialist tracks. I grin at my older brother, who rose very much in the 90s, I remember in the 96th shaking the newspaper “God forbid” with Zyuganov, a sickle and two chicken eggs on the cover in front of me, he was rubbing me with a burning look that something like: "the revolution is in danger))) we must go to vote for this vote ... Yeltsin, otherwise everything will return as it was." Now, in conversations, he defends the position that in the Duma elections it is necessary to vote for the Communist Party. And many in the middle class underwent such a metamorphosis. So the matter remains only for the Leaders and the corresponding organization!
        Sorry, if off topic and too long ...
  8. aybolyt678
    aybolyt678 4 December 2017 21: 09 New
    +3
    the author clearly gives out wishful thinking. Where he writes about the revival of his own production in Russia. Maybe this is in the military sphere, but this is not the case in Siberia. For Russia, the only way out is to fully authore with a certain share of imports of vegetables, and export of a single, high-tech, demanded product that would be produced in large quantities and, due to this, would have a low cost. For example 3D printers.
    Greek Crisis - Judgment. Indeed, this is a retribution for the incompetent leadership of the country by the government, for the admiration of ordinary Russians for the German or Japanese auto industry, for the betrayal of the country by oligarchs. And also, I think, for the lack of a state ideology that has legislative, shooting power.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 4 December 2017 21: 24 New
      +4
      “Maybe it is in the military sphere, but this is not in Siberia” - For that is, in the Jewish Autonomous Region, the industrial production growth there 47% this year is one of the highest in Russia. And in the production of one thing, no economy can stand it.
      1. dSK
        dSK 4 December 2017 21: 37 New
        +1
        Hello Vadim!
        Quote: Vadim237
        industrial production growth there this year 47%

        - joint "Russian - Chinese enterprises?" Have you already finished the bridge over the Amur?
      2. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 5 December 2017 02: 07 New
        0
        Quote: Vadim237
        And in the production of one thing, no economy can stand it.

        you are more careful please, the domestic market should be self-sufficient, but for export only what we ourselves can do better and more than anyone else!
  9. savage1976
    savage1976 5 December 2017 01: 12 New
    +1
    Well, we have, as always, the elections are on the way, so I think they will restrain the crisis in the economy until the elections to the maximum, and then they expect a decent fall. Everything points to this. Joyful reports of officials about prosperity (and salaries are melting), lack of inflation (and prices are rising). So we will again prepare to survive however.
  10. gladcu2
    gladcu2 5 December 2017 02: 05 New
    0
    Unfortunately, the article is bullshit.

    This banker candidate has no idea how the US economy works. And in general, how to work in order not to fall into these crises. Canada, for example. Spit on the crisis.

    Today, the United States is trying to somehow improve things. They lower taxes, but this is temporary. Unfortunately, the US has not solved the problem of returning money to the population. Although they promised to drop them from a helicopter.
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 5 December 2017 04: 42 New
      0
      The United States, in principle, cannot get out of crises. They just put it off temporarily.

      Initially, Reaganomics, cheap loans, supported the United States, before debt growth began.
      Then the USSR, having collapsed, through the local oligarchs, who most likely were created with the help of money from the USA, pumped the resources of the USSR around the world.
      And revived the US economy.

      GDP stopped chaos. USA, suddenly offended by the Russian Federation. And here in 2008 the economic crisis was officially announced. Resources take nowhere.

      So what is a crisis?

      A crisis is when money is transferred from the pockets of many into the pocket of units of people. The economy cannot work. Already produced goods cannot be bought. No money from consumers. Pat and mat.

      This is where the "divine voice" arose about dropping money from a helicopter.

      Nevertheless, the question remained open.
      How to return money to the consumer?

      In Canada, this issue is addressed through social obligations, needs, programs. Construction of social housing, state infrastructure.

      In the United States, there is not even free medicine, there are much fewer social programs, so the United States is very sensitive to the crisis of capitalism.

      The United States did not solve the problem of returning money to the population. And that means, in principle, the crisis will only worsen the situation.

      Trump lowered taxes. The worst solution. State resources will go to feed financial speculators.
      1. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 5 December 2017 11: 51 New
        +1
        Quote: gladcu2
        A crisis is when money is transferred from the pockets of many into the pocket of units of people. The economy cannot work. Already produced goods cannot be bought. No money from consumers. Pat and math. Here then the "divine voice" arose about dropping money from a helicopter.
        Nevertheless, the question remained open.
        How to return money to the consumer?

        But no way. Wait until everything collapses. And delay the inevitable. What the United States does. By the way, don’t be afraid and Canada will be hooked very tight when everything collapses. By the way, it’s interesting how quickly a new crisis will come when there will be a recovery from the old. smile
        Quote: gladcu2
        In Canada, this issue is addressed through social obligations, needs, programs. Construction of social housing, state infrastructure.

        Social programs are high taxes on business. And since we now have freedom around us, business collects slippers and moves to a country where there is great tax freedom. Well, or curtailed, and so on. The circle is closed.
        Quote: gladcu2
        The United States did not solve the problem of returning money to the population. And that means, in principle, the crisis will only worsen the situation.

        And nobody solved this problem at all. One hell inequality in wealth is growing around the world.
        Quote: gladcu2
        Trump lowered taxes. The worst solution. State resources will go to feed financial speculators.

        Standard technique to stimulate business activity. I wonder how this medicine will help the patient, along with other drugs from Dr. Trump, such as armed blackmail of all kinds of Saudis and China? smile
        1. gladcu2
          gladcu2 5 December 2017 13: 38 New
          0
          Social programs are not only high taxes on business.

          By the way, taxes depend on the level of productivity, and not on the desire to raise or lower taxes.

          Capitalism that knows no crises is capitalism with regulated profits. Since only cash profits and its size lead the economy to a crisis.

          So here. Those who received enough profit always needed to invest money for their safety and accumulation.

          For these purposes, they are provided with "financial regulators." These are real estate, futures, status items, yachts, expensive cars, "art objects", bitcoins and a lot of other rubbish that an ordinary person can not afford. The value of these offers never drops in price. And this means that profit is out of circulation.

          Then ask yourself, is it possible to return them.

          The answer is yes. Print money. Run this money through social programs, which should be enough so that the economy does not allow crises.

          So, along with taxes, the state revives the economy in this way.

          A detailed diagram works. It is clear that everything looks strange and somehow false. Well, let's start with the fact that capitalism itself is a complete lie. It begins with the illusory "American dream", as well as with specially lowered educational standards, so that the plebs do not understand the whole illusion and deceit of the system.
      2. iouris
        iouris 5 December 2017 12: 13 New
        0
        Quote: gladcu2
        How to return money to the consumer?

        The question is posed incorrectly. The correct formulation of the question: how to give the consumer money in the United States. This can be done at the expense of the population of other countries.
        1. gladcu2
          gladcu2 5 December 2017 13: 40 New
          0
          And so they do. To achieve the goal, all means are good.

          Capitalism is a lie from beginning to end.
          1. gladcu2
            gladcu2 5 December 2017 14: 22 New
            +1
            In the format of comments, it is difficult for me to consistently describe capitalism in semi-socialist countries such as Canada, Sweden, and Russia.

            Yes, Russia is returning money through maternity capital, public housing, in my opinion in the north they have allocated free land for which they also printed money.

            And the most important. In Russia, a high bank interest. Which is the main regulator of profit. Since it is precisely a low percentage that creates financial bubbles that do not allow the refund described in the comments above.

            Lowering the interest on a mortgage, with the need to get a light loan, increases the value of real estate and, accordingly, there is a mechanism for the growth of a financial bubble.

            In Toronto, for example, if there are 100 units of empty apartments, the price of the apartment is unavailable. They cannot be sold or bought. No money. Because the low interest on the loan made it possible for speculators to buy these apartments. Which stopped the economy. The frayer's greed destroyed.
            And what is Capitalism without greed.
  11. g1washntwn
    g1washntwn 5 December 2017 07: 38 New
    0
    In common people, any economic crisis is a situation where the balance between real-created values ​​and virtual financial bubbles is maximally biased towards financial dummies. Exactly until the moment when the voltage of one of the "bubbles" reaches a critical point, and that in the end will burst. After the first collapse, a chain reaction follows along all the “bubbles” until these swings between the real and virtual more or less calm down at any point that suits the largest market players. And the cyclicality only once again proves that the real sector of investors and players is interested in minimally, quick tactical income is more important than low-yield strategic investments - that’s the whole Western model of market relations. That is why, while the "Harvard victims" are rubbing about the self-regulatory economy, these swings will swing more and more.
    And about Bitcoin and so on, everything is simple. Existing financial pyramids and bubbles are gradually becoming obsolete, and finances are simply flowing into more promising “quick money,” which, if you look closely at existing “bubbles,” differ only externally, the essence has remained unchanged. The owners of these conservative bubbles are theatrically indignant and cry about crises, at night shifting their funds into new generation bubbles. In other words, only the real sector has a crisis, virtual bubbles continue to live their own lives.
  12. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov 5 December 2017 08: 43 New
    0
    Urgently, we are buying up apartments! wink
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 5 December 2017 11: 14 New
      0
      It’s much more humane to shoot yourself right away. And more economical.
      1. andrej-shironov
        andrej-shironov 5 December 2017 13: 52 New
        0
        smile Well no! I certainly will not present such a gift to the authorities!
    2. iouris
      iouris 5 December 2017 12: 15 New
      0
      Already bought up. The consequence will be non-repayment of mortgage debts, bankruptcy and falling apartment prices.
  13. olimpiada15
    olimpiada15 5 December 2017 10: 12 New
    +1
    The Russian Federation is built into the global economy, squeaks, but climbs. And there it depends on the United States, a country with an astronomical public debt that will never be returned to anyone, i.e. the world economy rests on a financial swamp. This is a game with a sharpie. Why maintain this pyramid? As a state, a self-sufficient RF does not need this at all, because it is fraught. There are no statesmen in power, those who need a strong country.
  14. iouris
    iouris 5 December 2017 12: 07 New
    0
    Economics and politics are completely different than at the beginning of the last century. This is not a cyclical crisis, but a certain stage of a systemic global crisis. The Trump story showed that its resolution within the existing economic model is impossible.
  15. iouris
    iouris 5 December 2017 12: 10 New
    0
    Quote: olimpiada15
    As a state, a self-sufficient RF does not need this at all, because it is fraught. There are no statesmen in power, those who need a strong country.

    You contradict yourself. From this it follows that the Russian Federation has “built in” somewhere, but not successfully.
  16. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 5 December 2017 12: 19 New
    0
    .... It should be remembered that the Russian ruble is the currency of a country exporting raw materials ...
    Today, all of Russia's foreign policy is aimed at preventing a fall in energy prices.
    1. iouris
      iouris 5 December 2017 12: 43 New
      0
      The Russian ruble is pegged to the dollar, and the dollar to oil.
  17. Rey_ka
    Rey_ka 7 December 2017 07: 39 New
    0
    sho !? again!?
  18. turbris
    turbris 7 December 2017 19: 29 New
    +1
    And universal frosts are approaching Russia, oil will fall, the ruble will fall, the crisis will come, there will be no harvest, the bridge will fall apart and all the khan! Only the West will save us! already tired of these things!