"Euphrates fist" CAA under the threat of "Meyadinsky boiler." Important facts are not in favor of reducing the Armed Forces in Syria
A frank surprise in the existing situation is the statement by Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, about preparations for a “substantial reduction” in the size of the Russian military contingent in the Syrian Arab Republic. Considering even the fact that a few days before the Russian leader Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with UAR President Bashar Assad, announced the imminent completion of the antiterrorist operation in the Syrian theater of operations, in reality the situation looks much more complicated and unpredictable than during consultations between high-ranking representatives of the command of armies and defense departments of friendly states. In particular, if in the provinces of Latakia, Hama, Idlib and Aleppo and Damascus, the full operational and strategic superiority of the Syrian Arab Army (CAA) and the Turkish armed forces is observed, despite the existing Jabhad al-Nusra enclaves in the Hanasser and Damascus areas, as well as Kurdish the SDF detachments, it is still very early to “trumpet fanfare” about the situation in the region of the channel of the Euphrates (in the province of Deir-ez-Zor).
In previous prognostic reviews, we emphasized the complexity of the situation many times in the area of the ISIL’s most powerful fortified district, Al-Quriya-Wadi Bakiyah, which stretches 60 km from south to north along the Euphrates riverbed; in the end, all fears were justified on Friday November 24th. From informed Syrian sources, information was received that ISIS militant groups, which received significant reinforcement, went on the counter-attack on the recently liberated cities of Al-Asharah, as well as Al-Quraiya, located on the west bank. More interestingly, the militants are not coming from the western enclave, but from the eastern bank of the Euphrates, successfully crossing the river in the vicinity of the settlements of Darnadzh and Mazar al-Shaikh Ali. The syria.liveuamap.com online tactical map on the Syrian theater of operations shows that the “corridor” for transferring militants is within the range of the YPG / YPJ Kurdish artillery and can also be freely fired at by the U.S. MLRS HIMARS, but this is not occurs, as well as full-fledged tactical missile attacks aviation OVVS coalition on the strong points of the IG on the eastern coast of the Euphrates.
It says only one thing: the viability of the pseudo-caliph is maintained by the Kurds (SDF) and the Americans solely for taking revenge on government forces and allied forces. So, for example, a large group of IS was safely escorted from Abu Kemal by fighters from the British SAS (Spacial Air Service) and American MTR under the cover of tactical aviation of the US Air Force. So, in a brazen and open way, the coalition protects the pseudo-caliph militants who are advantageous to it (a reason to recall and compare with how we in the last months “defended” the CAA from attacks by the Israeli Air Force). As we learned a little later, this group was distributed between the Iraqi enclave of the IG, as well as the wing of the pseudo-caliphate, located on the eastern bank of the Euphrates. Today, all these forces, including the heavy weapons assigned by the Igilovs, have been practically restored by Kurdish and US military experts, and will very soon be used as reserve units and reinforcements for operations on the east bank.
The probability of a re-seizure of the cities of Al-Asharah and Al-Quraiya is far from the only critical moment observed south of the liberated Deir ez-Zor. The forces of the Syrian army, the "Force of the Tigris", as well as Hezbollah units trying to develop an offensive in the direction of Abu Hammam (to the south), as well as in the direction of the Т2 station (to the south-east) faced the risk of hitting the "Meyadinsky boiler" , from the west, surrounded by the current enclave of ISIS, and from the east - by the Euphrates River and the territory controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces. The prospect is not very bright: the map shows that the neck of the new tactical "boiler" is in the area of the city of Meyadin and has just a tiny width of 8,3 km. Through it from Deir ez-Zor in the direction of Meyadin 2 highways pass, which are excellently penetrated by any types of cannon artillery, as well as by means of standard 120-mm mortars of type 2B11, having a range in 7100 m.
In other words, these highways, as well as the desert surface near the Euphrates, are under confident fire control of the Kurds and ISIS. To close the Meyadinsky boiler, a rather short-term and powerful 8-kilometer-long rush of pseudo-caliph fighters in the direction of the river bed. In view of the proximity of the friendly positions of the Kurds, the US Air Force will quickly establish a “no-fly zone” over this territory (motivating these actions by “protecting friendly forces”), and our VKS will only have to punch the “neck” on the way to Meyadin with “Calibers” launched from Mediterranean Sea. Another thing is if Su-30CM and Su-35С will close the airspace over Meyadin in advance: in this case, the strategy of the Pentagon, the Kurdish command and the ISIL field commanders will face serious problems. The command of the US Air Force will not decide on a direct clash with Russian air defense, and our Tu-22М3 will continue to massively suppress opornikov advancing terrorists. But for this purpose, the crews of our “Dryers” need to be significantly above Meyadin earlier than the F-22A “Raptor” will do. Consequently, in order to seize the initiative from an unnoticeable enemy, the VKS command will have the only way out - the DRLOU A-50 aircraft on the southern part of the Deir-ez-Zor province, where detection of the inconspicuous "Raptors" (EPR of the order 0,05 - 0,07 м2) will be more likely.
Nor should we forget about the presence of the large American military base At-Tanf, for the defense of which several hundred US Marine Corps and Special Operations Forces personnel are deployed against the CAA and allied forces, as well as the BMNO M142 HIMARS deployed a year earlier. On the regular use of the latter against the infrastructure of ISIS, nothing is known, despite the fact that the 227-mm ammunition rockets M30 GMLRS or tactical ballistic missiles MGM-164B (ATCMS Block IIA) still allow Americans to work on the infrastructure of terrorists "Semi-fleet", located on between Es-Suhn and Euphrates. All thanks to the long range of these missiles that make up 92 km for XM30 and 300 km for ATACMS. Apparently, it is precision weapon it is stored up completely for other purposes, for example, for possible fire support of the Kurdish offensive on the western coast of the Euphrates from the side of Abu Hammam. The offensive maneuver of the so-called “moderate opposition” forces to the west of At-Tanf is also not excluded, together with IS militants who, under the cover of coalition forces, are able to break through to the above-described “boiler” under Es-Suhn (total 55 km through the desert in the north eastward). As you remember, the Al-Rukban refugee camp continues to be used and expanded for training terrorists in tactical skills in the desert Syrian relief, because of the hopelessness, the future militants also migrate to the US military training base near At-Tanfa.
And not at all as a gesture of goodwill, the US-led coalition suddenly decided to help the Syrian humanitarian congregation with food, medicine and basic necessities to be delivered to the Er-Rukban camp. Why not? Why do Americans need to use traffic interchanges on the territory of Jordan, an extra “fuss” on the controlled part of the Syrian-Jordanian border, as well as sponsorship of this entire action and other headache. These tasks can be accomplished by Damascus itself, as part of an agreement under the auspices of the UN, which was concluded in the Jordanian capital, Amman. At the same time, the American contingent risks absolutely nothing, since the convoy will follow not up to the “Er-Rukban” camp, but only to the 55-kilometer security zone around it. The ground and air borders of this zone have not been overcome by a single ground unit or reconnaissance aircraft of the Syrian Arab Army, because the ground-based missile defense systems of the Marine Corps, as well as the US Air Force, protect them as the apple of their eye.
Americans do not need “extra eyes and ears” in this territory, since it is here that the American command and field leaders of the “confident opposition” recruit new “cannon fodder”, which after training will go to the “boilers” in the province of “Deir ez-Zor” ". And if, for example, in November 2013 of the year, in the Zaatari Jordanian camp, militants of the “Syrian Free Army” recruited peace refugees only with the help of megaphones, then in Er-Rukban, this process is ten times larger and doesn’t occur at will , and forcibly, or from despair. The fact is that the conditions of existence in this camp are simply terrible, and getting out of the 55-kilometer zone is possible only thanks to the presence of useful contacts. About this in mid-November, it became known from the mouth of the miraculously left this terrible place Hamida Al-Moussa. At the same time, Americans need to preserve the viability of the infamous camp, and the Syrian humanitarian convoy turned up just in the "theme".
It is worth noting that for conducting controversial tactical operations northeast of At-Tanfa and directly in the province of Deir ez-Zor, all anti-government forces will rely solely on the support of the American military contingent; and its number is far from 503 man, as sources close to the Pentagon previously reported, but 2000 and more people, as reported by Turkish military experts. If the so-called “55-kilometer security zone” is the second largest American and Western European contingent in the SAR, then the first place, undoubtedly, belongs to the Haseke province, which is under the control of the “Syrian Democratic Forces”. Why exactly here? There are two answers to this question. First, from the very beginnings of the active phase of the Syrian military company, with its inherent versatility and “ingenuity”, the Pentagon relied on the SDF, originally represented by the 15-20-thousandth group of Kurdish national self-defense units, whose experience in confronting Syrian government forces and the Turkish security forces in the Syrian-Turkish border area is simply unique, unlike the “moderate” or the same SSA. Motivated by the idea of national liberation and the creation of their own independent state - Syrian Kurdistan, these fighters ideally suited the Pentagon as a powerful rebel "backbone" for the future deterrence of the Syrian Arab Army.
Secondly, a large US military group is located in Haseke province to coordinate the interaction between the YPG and ISIS units located in the eastern enclave of the pseudo-caliphate. Also, the Americans prevent the occurrence of unforeseen incidents between the Kurdish detachments and the militants of the IG. It is precisely this that explains the fact that any changes on the east bank of the Euphrates play into the hands of Washington alone. So, November 25 2017 of the year, the SDF units east of the Euphrates, which for about one and a half to two months "trampled" on the section of Wadi Hamash - Faydat Al-Hadra, literally in a few days made a "throw" in a southerly direction, reaching the Syrian-Iraqi border in 10 km east of Abu Kemal, as indicated by the latest data from another online map of syriancivilwarmap.com. At this point, the Syrian army units are only half way to the closure of the "boiler" at Sukhne. Such a “success” of the SDF can be viewed exclusively in close cooperation with the terrorists of the pseudo-caliphate. As a result, the left-bank enclave of the IG, located near the Euphrates, is surrounded by Kurds from the east and located on the right bank of the CAA - from the west.
In fact, the US Armed Forces, instead of attracting Kurds to the stripping of the newly formed “boiler,” will use it even more actively as a buffer between the SDF and the CAA, but only up to a certain point, which may mark a new stage of confrontation in the Syrian theater of operations — combat actions between the SAR forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). And the probability of the beginning of this stage is directly proportional to the growth of the status of Bashar Assad in the Middle Eastern military and political arena, which the Americans are not very happy about. The overseas "curators" and the recent statements by Recep Erdogan about the possibility of holding talks with UAR President Bashar Assad are very straining in the direction of the likely unification of actions to fight Kurdish troops (YPG) in the northern provinces of Syria. If for several years of a multilateral Syrian conflict, Erdogan adhered to the western point of view about the lack of a future for the current B. Assad and his entourage, then after several negotiations with Vladimir Putin, including the meeting of the “Middle East”, his position and rhetoric changed dramatically .
Even more unpleasant signal for Washington can be considered some details of consultations between representatives of the opposition forces of Syria, which took place in Arabian Riyadh. For example, one of the surprises is the readiness of the so-called “moderates” to hold democratic elections with the participation of representatives of the pro-Baath party. It becomes obvious that the opposition is ready to reckon with the current Syrian regime. As a result, not only Washington but also Tel Aviv has the least amount of time to make its destructive adjustments to the political agenda of the “Syrian reset”. Now the command of the IDF, in conjunction with the Mossad and the AMAN, is hastily developing the most profitable and win-win model of “connecting” to the conflict in the Syrian theater of operations, where the main argument in favor of strikes on military objects of the CAA and possible attack on the territory of the south-western provinces of Syria will be ethno-religious protection Druze community, part of which lives in the Golan Heights. Meanwhile, the army of the Jewish state will be able to operate exclusively in those areas where there are no Russian military contingent, as well as radar control devices that are part of the structure of the Air and Space Forces of Russia.
To avoid such a development of the situation, the VKS command should focus not only on the defense of the logistical support point in Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, but also on the formation of anti-aircraft / anti-missile zones to prevent and restrict access and A2 / AD maneuvers over the provinces of Damascus and Homs. over which today Hel Haavir feel at home. For example, one of the latest incidents of violation of the Syrian airspace, not taking into account the regular unpunished strike operations of the Israeli Air Force tactical aviation against the SAA facilities (Damascus and Masyaf airports), occurred at about 01:30 local time, on November 24, 2017. According to the online service of global air traffic control "Flightradar24", the receiving point of the T-MLAT1 station began to "receive answers" from a transponder placed on board an unidentified Israeli Air Force aircraft. On the Flytradar map, the route of an unknown airborne object began to be displayed southwest of the city of Al-Karyatein. At this moment, the object was gaining altitude at a speed of about 620-650 km / h. After reaching an altitude of about 10 km, the car switched to horizontal flight at a speed of about 1115 km / h, and, with a deceleration to 800 km / h, crossed Lebanese airspace towards neutral airspace over the Mediterranean Sea. Based on the apparent parameters of the rate of climb and speed, one of the types of tactical fighters in service with Hel Haavir (F-16I "Sufa", F-15I "Ra'am" and F-35I "Adir") was hidden under the index "No callsign" ...
Obviously, before the “flare” on the “Flytradar”, the tactical fighter of the Israeli Air Force in the low-altitude mode carried out passive radio-electronic reconnaissance over the mountain ranges of Anti-Lebanon in order to determine the new positions of the radar and anti-aircraft missile systems. There could also be optic-electronic reconnaissance using an infrared channel in the El-Kiswa region, where, according to Israeli and Western intelligence agencies, it is planned to build a large military base of the Iranian armed forces. Hel Haa'avir pilots regularly use the Antilivan mountain range (Lubnan el-Sharqiyah) to safely enter the airspace of the Syrian Arab Republic without opening their own location. The Jebel-Anasariya mountain range, stretching along the Mediterranean coast of Syria, is not used by Israeli military aircraft due to the close proximity of the C-300B4 and C-400 Triumph long-range missile systems covering Tartus and Hmeimi. In particular, the 30H92E radars for illumination and guidance placed on 6-meter universal towers have markedly higher abilities to accompany low-altitude objects both against the background of mountainous terrain and above the plains due to the increased radio horizon. A vivid example of this is the lack of readiness of Hel Haavir to destroy the Iranian military factory in the city of Banias.
Meanwhile, the southern governorates of the SAR (Quneitra, Daraa, Essaouida and Damascus) remain as vulnerable as possible to the IDF’s numerical and technological superiority, and this situation needs to be urgently changed, because sooner or later Tel Aviv will find a reason to start fighting against the Syrian army, arguing that everything is “Iranian presence”, “long-suffering Druze”, aggressive actions of Hezbollah, etc. Just two days ago, the Syrian journalist Riyadh Farid Hijab expressed a reasonably interesting opinion based on information from military officials working in the Euphrates region. Based on the fact that the specially assigned units of the Syrian Democratic Forces at an accelerated pace dismantle and remove expensive oil-extracting equipment from the oil fields of the Deir-ez-Zor province and bring it to the Raqqah and Hassek regions, he predicts possible collisions with the Syrian Arab Army, which will repel this equipment, previously owned by Damascus. The future confrontation between the SDF and the CAA may occur, but the exported oil-producing equipment will certainly not be the spark to escalation. The Syrian army, acting in accordance with the agreements of the Middle East Troika, definitely does not intend to storm the Euphrates along its entire length and to start a war with the YPG only in order to fight off the oil-producing equipment.
The reason for the escalation can only be a provocation connected with the shelling of the CAA or its friendly units from the disputed areas in the eastern bank of the Euphrates, which are controlled by the SDF and ISIS. Naturally, such a shelling can be arranged by the bribed formations of a pseudo-caliph in order to push the foreheads of the YPG and the armed forces of Syria. Looking at the current tactical situation on the online map, it can be assumed that the provocation can take place either under Al-Quria or in the area of Abu Kemal, and with an simultaneous aggravation of the Israeli direction, and therefore think about reducing our military contingent in Syria is still very early.
Information sources:
https://news.rambler.ru/politics/38502587-erdogan-dopuskaet-provedenie-besedy-s-asadom-po-voprosu-siriyskih-kurdov/?updated
http://syria.liveuamap.com/
http://www.trt.net.tr/russian/turtsiia/2017/11/26/iyldyrym-ankara-ozhidaiet-ot-ssha-priekrashchieniia-vzaimodieistviia-s-ypg-855274
Information